Author Topic: Are you spending your way to disaster?  (Read 3283 times)

Offline mietla

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Are you spending your way to disaster?
« Reply #105 on: October 14, 2003, 05:04:49 PM »
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Originally posted by Rude
Not sure I understand the question....the private sector is just that...private. The government does not dictate to us what we do with our money.


Exactly. This is why capitalism is successful and can be perpetuated while socialism has to fail.

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #106 on: October 15, 2003, 12:22:52 AM »
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Originally posted by Rude
You're a little too smart for me Miko....just telling me that capital invested in VIABLE ventures reaps success is far beyond me. We invest in only viable venture or we do not invest, as does everyone else I know.


Which is all good and dandy for the economy.  I think what miko was orginally saying, was that it's good for the economy when people do as you do, invest in viable ventures.  As opposed to spending their resources on foreign made consumer goods.

It would hardly be good for the US economy if you liquidated your 180 million dollar business and bought 180 million dollars worth of rubber dog crap flown out of Hong Kong, right?  Or more accurately, at one point you and you sisters decided to invest resources into a commerical property management company.  Propably a better idea to do that in hindsight than to say, send those resources on foreign consumer goods for personal consumption.

And I believe this is why he thinks that US economy is going to go in the sinker.  Because people are spending thier resources on foreign goods instead of investing it in viable ventures in the US.  And think what the US would become if Americans took those 500 billion dollars a year that are spent in the trade deficate and invested into in private education systems, US companies etc.  The potential is staggaring.

I don't think the gist of what you are saying is conflicting with what miko is say, if I understand correctly.


miko said, "How come all the american firms that were working and employing lost of people on top of the last boom suddenly went out of business and laid people off while the consumers are still buying a lot of products from abroad? How come all those people and resources were misdirected from producing goods that people would actually buy into stuff that is now lays unused as dead weight? What made all the entrepreneurs to misdirect money into the wrong investments instead of production with guaranteed market? I have an explanation for that. Do you?"


I would like to hear it.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2003, 04:40:54 AM by Thrawn »

Offline gofaster

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« Reply #107 on: October 15, 2003, 07:12:17 AM »
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Originally posted by mietla
Would you be as successful is the government told you to stop producing whatever your product is, and forced you to build an Amtrak extension instead?


You mean, if Sixpence were in the tobacco business and it was suddenly prohibited, but the gov't then offered (since the gov't can't force someone to perform a business service) him a contract to build a rail line into the northern states so it could transport federal goods and passengers?

Yeah, somehow I think Sixpence would make a profit off of that contract. :p

Offline gofaster

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« Reply #108 on: October 15, 2003, 08:19:33 AM »
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Originally posted by mietla


Ok, so if we only keep defense, we'd only pay 16% of what we pay now in taxes, right?

So where does the money for the FAA, FCC, FEMA, IRS, FTC, FBI, NTC, NSA, DEA, HUD, INS, EPA, and FHA (just to name a few) come from?

And do you really think Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are superfluous?  You do realize that when you retire you only get 60% of your salary, right?  And that's assuming your company manages to survive after you leave.

Offline mietla

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« Reply #109 on: October 15, 2003, 01:51:25 PM »
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Originally posted by GScholz
You are assuming too much. First, if Rude can find a successful business venue on his own, then he could do it as a government employee as well. You're assuming all socialists are inept at good business.



it is not an assumption, it is an experience.

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Secondly, socialism is not communism. A socialist society can still have a free marked and private property. Look at most of Europe for an example of that.


different stages of the same, terminal disease. Give it 50 more years and will see who'll still works.


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Thirdly, you are assuming the USA is not a socialist society. That was mostly true back in the days of the founding fathers. Today the USA is a growing socialist society. I expect the USA will turn even more socialist in the future to combat growing social problems.


Unfortunately, you are right.

Offline Rude

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« Reply #110 on: October 15, 2003, 03:07:55 PM »
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Originally posted by Thrawn
Which is all good and dandy for the economy.  I think what miko was orginally saying, was that it's good for the economy when people do as you do, invest in viable ventures.  As opposed to spending their resources on foreign made consumer goods.

It would hardly be good for the US economy if you liquidated your 180 million dollar business and bought 180 million dollars worth of rubber dog crap flown out of Hong Kong, right?  Or more accurately, at one point you and you sisters decided to invest resources into a commerical property management company.  Propably a better idea to do that in hindsight than to say, send those resources on foreign consumer goods for personal consumption.

And I believe this is why he thinks that US economy is going to go in the sinker.  Because people are spending thier resources on foreign goods instead of investing it in viable ventures in the US.  And think what the US would become if Americans took those 500 billion dollars a year that are spent in the trade deficate and invested into in private education systems, US companies etc.  The potential is staggaring.

I don't think the gist of what you are saying is conflicting with what miko is say, if I understand correctly.


miko said, "How come all the american firms that were working and employing lost of people on top of the last boom suddenly went out of business and laid people off while the consumers are still buying a lot of products from abroad? How come all those people and resources were misdirected from producing goods that people would actually buy into stuff that is now lays unused as dead weight? What made all the entrepreneurs to misdirect money into the wrong investments instead of production with guaranteed market? I have an explanation for that. Do you?"


I would like to hear it.


First of all, the owners of this company are two brothers and a sister...I'm the lucky guy responsible to them for the success or failure of it. Trust me...if I owned it all, I'de be dippin minnows in the Ozarks:)

The answer to the above is simple. The American firms which rode the boom, never turned a profit(the vast majority didn't)...the growth of many of these firms was artificial.

What caused this to happen? Very simple....greed. Those at the top of the food chain saw it, knew it and used it.

As to Americans purchasing foreign goods, we have and will continue to follow that path as long as those goods are of good quality and competitively priced.....labor abroad has killed our competitive edge and I'm not sure how we will correct this. Probably by some new innovation or method or industry.

The boom of the nineties was the result of out of control growth of the hi-tech sector and the resulting increase in productivity resulting from that growth. Cell phones, laptops, etc have allowed more and more work to be accomplished than ever before in our history. I often acdcomplish more on the drive to lunch than I do behind my desk due to a cell phone.

Offline Rude

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« Reply #111 on: October 15, 2003, 03:16:45 PM »
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You're assuming all socialists are inept at good business. Look at China for an example of the opposite.


You give me a labor force paid like China's and I'll own the world....big difference between good business and free labor.

China can simply produce similar goods cheaper than their competitors....if the same were true for Europe, then the water pistol in my local retailer would say, Made in France.

Offline miko2d

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« Reply #112 on: October 15, 2003, 03:35:57 PM »
Sixpence: I agree, to a point. But at some point there needs to be laws that regulate us.

 Absolutely. And those laws should protect us from each other - like violence, theft, fraud, invasion of property.

 It might be in the best interest of the majority to tell you where you can smoke. If the majority of us do not want smoke where we dine in public, this is not telling you that you can't smoke.

 Wrong. You can tell me not to smoke in you property - without any vote. You and me can vote on whether someone could smoke on the property we commonly own - public property, like the street. But you should not be entitled to vote on whether I or my guests can smoke withing my own property (provided, of course I do not blow smoke into other person's property - that would be invasion). Nobody should be entitled to berge into my private property and enjoy smoke-free environment.

 How come you precious democracy does not prevent smoking on the public proberty so I get sick woaking the streets - which I am entitled to and cannot avoid - but forbids smoking in private bars where I have choice not to enter? With all those smokers forced outside a get much more exposure to smoke now than before NYC outlawed it!
 As well as I have a "pleasure" to see all those people enjoying themselves and getting sick so that I will have to pay for their treatment.

On a larger scale, we vote on how to pay for those who have health problems from smoking all their life and cannot afford to pay for those health expenses.

 So I cannot vote to make them stop smoking and live healthy lifestyle but when they end up hurt I am obligated to pick up the tab.

The majority will decide, and to some it will be oppressive, to others it will be the democratic thing to do.

 It's not oppressive or democratic - it's oppressive and democratic .


gofaster: If someone is walking around telling you how many children you can have, he's probably a priest, and those aren't elected officials under the US Constitution.  

 Liar. You know damn well that over 30,000 people were coercively sterilised in the US in the first half of the 20th century because officials deemed them as not worthy of procreation. If Hitler had not given eugenics a bad name, there is a chance that some stupid people on this board would be getting a state-administered snip.
 There were laws to that effect voted for by majority and they can be voted in again once the people forget who Hitler was.

So how is this opposite from what the Founding Fathers intended?

"'A simple democracy,' wrote Benjamin Rush to John Adams in 1789, 'or an unbalanced republic, is one of the greatest of evils.' These two founding fathers of the United States, like nearly all of their fellow patriots, held a distinct disdain for, and distrust of, pure democracy. They correctly feared that a majority-mob would as surely trample the rights of a political minority as a tyrannical king."


Rude: You're a little too smart for me Miko....just telling me that capital invested in VIABLE ventures reaps success is far beyond me. We invest in only viable venture or we do not invest, as does everyone else I know.

 Not smart, just educated in some matters to which I am trying top attract your interest. It requires some explanation and I will try to give a brief overview.
 You are very wrong in your statement and it's a common mistake. Please read the folowing carefully, it's real science.

Thrawn: miko said, "How come all the american firms... I would like to hear it.

 Here it comes:

Some ventures always fall because all investment is in future production, thus speculative. But in general, some entrepreneurs make better decisions, some worse and economy works. The way they decide which ventures to invest in is market signals - prices, etc., including the most important - interest rate. Free market interest rate is formed by a very complex interplay of real factors. Mostly it indicates availability of real resources for creating the projects. Enterprises are not built of paper money but of real goods - labor, materials, etc. that must be available to be purchased for that money.
 If a venture is expected to bring 5% profit, you would not borrow capital at 6% to invest into it but you would borrow and invest if the interest rate dropped to 4%.
 If the interest rate drops, a lot of projects that were unprofitable will become profitable and will be initiated. A very important point is that the longer-term projects are more sensitive to interest-rate fluctuiations, just like long-term bonds. The drop in iterest rates will cause increase of investment in long-term projects like mining, heavy industry, etc. much more than into short-term ventures.

 So what happens when the real resources availability does not change but the interest rates are manipulated down by government credit expansion? All entrepreneurs are fooled into opening projects, especially long-term ones and there will not be enough resources to finish them or manipylate them profitably. As they near completion, they will compete for scarce resources, so they will borrow money to pay for them - raising interest rates, raising prices or both! No matter what happens, some of the projects will necessarily not reach profitability, go bust and the resources already invested in them will be wasted.
 The artificially-induced boom and raise in production and employment will be followed by the inevitable bust and drop in production and employment while the capital misallocations are corrected and failed businesses are liquidated.  We end up worse than if we had natural rate of growth.


 Here is an example: from the 90s  Firms fooled by low interest invest in software business, because it seems that population is consuming less and saving/investing more - say in education. They intend to build offices and hire programmers at $50K a pop. They do build offices, overpaying for the limber and steel, which can fortunately be imported, but when it comes to hiring programmers, they find out that people were not investing in programming education! So they borrow more money and drive the programmers salaries into $200! They get a lot of crappy jhalf-baked programmers and they cannot possibly be profitable with such high expenses. You see - teh dollars printed by Fed and multiplied by fractional reserve bank system were not backed by real investable stuff! So the businesses fold, not only the start-ups but the old good ones, like Sun and Lucent who lost good programers to the newcomers and had to pay triple for the remaining ones.
 They have to scramble for indian programmers and imports and once they set up outsorcing, it will be difficult to get those jobs back. They already went to all the expence to set up the subcidiaries, so thr US programmer's salary will have to drop a lot lower than it would have been without artificial boom to make them forego that investment and bring the jobs back in.
 So you end up with lots of resources inverted into offices wasted, lots of "dark" fiber cable wasted, lots of productive connections scrambled, lots of people with expensive houses bought at the peak salaries and no jobs to pay the mortgage, etc. Same happens in other industries.


 That is why I do not rejoice when I hear that Fed caused a drop in rates and production increased. I know that some of that production is bound to fail. Not every growth is good - only the sustainable growth where resources are not misallocated from the start.
 Business cycle is not a feature of capitalism, but of government credit expansions. There were no general boom/bust cycles before government legalised fractional reserve monetary system and enabled credit expansion to occur in the early 1800s.

 miko

Offline miko2d

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« Reply #113 on: October 15, 2003, 03:47:31 PM »
Rude : The boom of the nineties was the result of out of control growth...

 I hope I dispelled that misconception succesfully. There were no cell-phones to account for the boom/bust of 1819 or the Great Depression and for all the boom/bust cycles in between and since.

 There was always monetary/credit expansion followed by boom then by bust just as I've descrived.

 It was not greed or technology or Enron, etc. The people who malinvested money had to get them from somewhere - and those were not money you've earned and saved so the bank could loan them. They were money that bank created just for the occasion. Credit not backed by savings, induced investment without resources to complete the projects what made them invest.


 miko

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #114 on: October 16, 2003, 02:32:29 AM »
Thank you for your responses, Rude and miko.  I appreciate them very much.

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #115 on: October 16, 2003, 08:23:26 AM »
This stuff is all so hard for me to understand...  I just don't care tho... so long as things keep going well enough for the UPS truck to drop stuff off on my porch.

Get a woody when I see one of them trucks.
lazs

Offline miko2d

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« Reply #116 on: October 16, 2003, 11:00:57 AM »
Rude: You give me a labor force paid like China's and I'll own the world....big difference between good business and free labor.

 The chinese communists had the same labor force paid even less under total control and the best central planning possible conducted by the most brilliant people and they ruined their country utterly.

 The good labor force can create miracles - but only as long as someone is not empowered to use it to accomplish his goals. Only in the context of free market spontaneous social cooperation through the division of labor and exchange will the production sustainably grow towards satisfaction of the most urgent needs of the consumers.

 It is a common mistake for a wanna-be tyrants to believe that they can succeed where communists or nazis or fascists failed because he is smarter or more valorous or is guided by God.

 The reason socialism is impossible to create is that in the absence of freely traded private property there can not be market prices and without them there is absilotely no basis for economic calculation. There is no way to even determine whether the capital is being accumulated or deculylated, let alone the most urgent needs and areas where investment would not be wasted.

 The free market is the most planned and orderly economy possible - with every person being the best judge of local conditions and impersonal profit/loss mechanism constantly adjusting the ownership of productive resources in favor or those entrepreneurs who have been correct in predicting the consumer needs and best (most efficient, cheap) ways to satisfy them.

 The "planned" socialist economy is completely unplanned and unplannable, total chaos and anarchy driven by arbitrary decisions of a few not based on any reality.

 miko

Offline gofaster

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« Reply #117 on: October 16, 2003, 11:28:00 AM »
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Originally posted by lazs2
This stuff is all so hard for me to understand...  I just don't care tho... so long as things keep going well enough for the UPS truck to drop stuff off on my porch.

Get a woody when I see one of them trucks.
lazs


Yeah, me too.  It means the seller on eBay actually followed through on his commitment.

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #118 on: October 16, 2003, 12:25:46 PM »
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Originally posted by miko2d
There is no way to even determine whether the capital is being accumulated or deculylated, let alone the most urgent needs and areas where investment would not be wasted.


I thought one of the doctrines of the Austrian school was that trend prediction was impracticle, because the involvement of human beings made the system chaotic.  If you can't use the economic calculations for trend prediction what value can they have, except for a historical/archival context?

Offline Ripsnort

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« Reply #119 on: October 16, 2003, 12:57:52 PM »
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Originally posted by lazs2
This stuff is all so hard for me to understand...  I just don't care tho... so long as things keep going well enough for the UPS truck to drop stuff off on my porch.

Get a woody when I see one of them trucks.
lazs


LOL, sig material.