General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: CptTrips on January 18, 2023, 02:04:32 PM
Title: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 18, 2023, 02:04:32 PM
I have to laugh. Jeremy used to be such a rah-rah, buy-the-dip bro, perma-bull. I think someone slipped him a read pill. :rofl
I was expecting the collapse to start end of 2022. Well, that didn't happen, obviously. It will be interesting to see how far off I end up being.
It's been a nice Bear-Market Rally though. I sure hope anyone who had felt caught with too much long risk the last drop had time to re-evaluate their positions during this nice uptick.
On the other hand, Tom Lee is predicting the Market will rocket up 20%+ this year. :aok Good luck with that.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: AKIron on January 18, 2023, 03:20:17 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nt7-WKXL5vw
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 18, 2023, 03:25:35 PM
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!” - Niels Bohr
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: rabbidrabbit on January 18, 2023, 03:59:52 PM
That guy is tough to watch with the over emotional clickbait posting. I hope that is the exception and not the rule. If you want to actually understand Macro and how it affects investing, you might want to consider other sources of info.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: AKIron on January 18, 2023, 04:25:52 PM
Numbers man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F__elfR3w8c
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 18, 2023, 04:52:42 PM
I try and watch these about once a year. I always get to the edge of epiphany and I'm like, "Ohhh wait. I get it! I get it now!!!" Then I wake up in the morning and its like, "Oh. I lost it." ;)
This one is my favorite channel. I forgive him for having Tom Lee on. It was really so we could all laugh at him. :rofl
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: mechanic on January 18, 2023, 08:47:07 PM
The time of freedom of speech coming out of Youtube is gone. It is just another mainstream media tool used to manipulate the narrative now. I'm not saying everything on there is wrong. But there are better places on the interweb to go looking for information.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: rabbidrabbit on January 19, 2023, 06:11:08 AM
The time of freedom of speech coming out of Youtube is gone. It is just another mainstream media tool used to manipulate the narrative now. I'm not saying everything on there is wrong. But there are better places on the interweb to go looking for information.
There are lots of places to look for information. The biggest challenge is getting factual information and not propaganda. It is way too common for people to get disgusted by propaganda on one side of the spectrum only to embrace other propaganda that fits more conveniently with their views. My caution is to not fall for that trap and value sincerity from where you get information from above political affinity. it is getting increasingly tougher to have a fact based conversation on any issue, especially one tainted by politics.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Slade on January 19, 2023, 07:21:08 AM
Quote
it is getting increasingly tougher to have a fact based conversation on any issue, especially one tainted by politics.
I agree.
When a media outlet doesn't want to report the truth they do the "just asking questions" technique. Not having legit sources, leads the viewer to the wrong facts and ultimately conclusions on topics.
The technique detailed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI9-YY5O51k (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI9-YY5O51k)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on January 19, 2023, 07:24:26 AM
As they keep raising the debt limit and thus allowing us to futher fall into debt...> $31trillion is not enough...the correction will never be allowed to happen..
This will eventually lead to major war attempting to force the rest of the world to keep the then useless dollar its reserve currency
Enjoy while it lasts..
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: mechanic on January 19, 2023, 08:11:30 AM
There are lots of places to look for information. The biggest challenge is getting factual information and not propaganda. It is way too common for people to get disgusted by propaganda on one side of the spectrum only to embrace other propaganda that fits more conveniently with their views. My caution is to not fall for that trap and value sincerity from where you get information from above political affinity. it is getting increasingly tougher to have a fact based conversation on any issue, especially one tainted by politics.
Agree completely. Free financial advice channels always make me suspicious.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 19, 2023, 08:34:51 AM
As they keep raising the debt limit and thus allowing us to futher fall into debt...
Well I was hoping to stay somewhere near the topic of stocks but I see that is going to be a lost cause. ;)
You do understand that the debt limit is just paying the bill for things we've already bought on the credit card, right?
I'm all for reducing how much you charge on the national credit card. But when a bill arrives, you have amoral obligation to pay for what you already bought.
At least that is how I was raised.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on January 19, 2023, 08:39:48 AM
Correct but you don't spend more than you make or in the case of the government..steal
That is how I was raised...
This like most manipulations these days do affect the joke called a stock market these days
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 19, 2023, 08:43:05 AM
Correct but you don't spend more than you make or in the case of the government..steal
That is how I was raised...
Correct. But if you did, you man up and pay the bill when it arrives.
Failing to pass the debt limit is like deciding to get your budget in order by refusing to pay the credit card bill when it arrives in the mail. You keep the stuff you bought but come of with a justification on why you shouldn't have to pay the bill.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on January 19, 2023, 08:49:51 AM
I agree if you spent it you have to pay the bill..
The argument we see today is the same one they always have ...and they always raise it..theater like most of the dc noise
So some of us see it as what it is..a distraction from real issues
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 19, 2023, 09:12:15 AM
I agree if you spent it you have to pay the bill..
The argument we see today is the same one they always have ...and they always raise it..theater like most of the dc noise
They always raise it because they have to pay for what they already bought. The law itself is stupid and should be removed. Or rename it to the "should I free-load and refuse to pay my bills law". That is the wrong end of the process to try and get spending under control.
Last time they did this stupid kabuki dance I knew a guy that almost lost his company. He had a contracting company doing very specialized work for the gov. He did the work. He absorbed the costs. He paid his employees. And then couldn't get the gov to pay it's bill on time because retards wanted to put on a show in Congress. He was having to sell stuff to make house payments.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 19, 2023, 11:07:32 AM
Great interview. Ted Oakley is one of my faves. He is a f'in Chad!
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: rabbidrabbit on January 19, 2023, 04:46:33 PM
My experience with Adam Taggert is that he is a shill getting a kick back from pretty much all his guests. Over the years I have been continually unimpressed with his product.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 19, 2023, 04:48:29 PM
My experience with Adam Taggert is that he is a shill getting a kick back from pretty much all his guests. Over the years I have been continually unimpressed with his product.
Do you have any evidence of that?
Are you referring to the New Harbor guys? They have a close marketing relationship and they are seldom the main guests. They are basically an investment firm that shares his macro views so it is one he is willing to recommend to his audience. They are almost co-hosts.
So do you have any proof Ted Oakley, or Ray Dalio, or Peter Bockvar have paid him kickbacks?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 19, 2023, 05:55:01 PM
And then you have the redoubtable Mr. Steven Van Metre. ;)
He's a goof but I watch him anyway. He is mostly harmless.
Man, housing is such a BIG chunk of the economy. If that craters.... :eek:
I think we are soon to see the downside of an Everything Bubble. The Everything Crash.
And not to forget Charlie. He is just too humerous to ignore:
Uhhh oh. We finally broke Jeremy. LoL. The ultimate buy-the-dip bro, to-the-moon! now short. This is going to be so fun. Welcome to the Dark Side.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on January 20, 2023, 07:44:32 AM
Will they let it fall?
Can't see how with morons pushing through another $$1.7 trillion package before they lost total control..
It's all theater imo...like fake wrestling...not real but the morons in the crowd still purchased their tickets to believe it is..
Like the debt ceiling noise...all stupid theater as they always raise it in the end and then spend even more $$$$ the next time...all theater
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: rabbidrabbit on January 20, 2023, 09:16:59 AM
Are you referring to the New Harbor guys? They have a close marketing relationship and they are seldom the main guests. They are basically an investment firm that shares his macro views so it is one he is willing to recommend to his audience. They are almost co-hosts.
So do you have any proof Ted Oakley, or Ray Dalio, or Peter Bockvar have paid him kickbacks?
Having watched his videos over time his approach seems to consistently be a soft sell for whoever he is interviewing. I simply get s sleazy feeling out of him after watching his stuff over the years. You are welcome to your opinions. I'm simply sharing mine as someone who watches a ton of financial videos.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 20, 2023, 09:25:10 AM
Having watched his videos over time his approach seems to consistently be a soft sell for whoever he is interviewing. I simply get s sleazy feeling out of him after watching his stuff over the years. You are welcome to your opinions. I'm simply sharing mine as someone who watches a ton of financial videos.
He is just being courteous. His style is to have guests on with opposing philosophies and letting them state their thesis and letting the viewers decide. He is not trying to argue anyone out of their positions.
I assure you his position is completely opposite of a guest like Tom Lee. But he'll let him have his say and state his view. He is not trying to beat him in a argument but just to clarify and ambiguous point so his viewers have a clear picture to decide for themselves.
Saying you don't like that style is an opinion. Claiming he is corrupt and taking kickbacks sounds more of a statement of fact that I thought you would have evidence for.
But you do you.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: rabbidrabbit on January 20, 2023, 09:42:29 AM
Saying you don't like that style is an opinion. Claiming he is corrupt and taking kickbacks sounds more of a statement of fact that I thought you would have evidence for.
But you do you.
I got that impression from his style and what others have said about him. I don't have concrete evidence of it. Like I explained, I watch a lot of videos and the type of people you seem to like are not the ones that appeal to me when it comes to making financial decisions. For me such decisions matter as they are my primary source of income. My goal is to consistently outperform the market at less risk and I do it well enough to do well. Your processes are your choices. Give weight to who ever you wish.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 20, 2023, 09:45:55 AM
Kinda feel for those that purchased homes last year when prices were peaking..
Have to wonder how many will bail when they go severely underwater
That's part of what's driving this incredible number of deposit cancellations People are doing the math and realizing they will be paying 30% more for the house than they are likely to ever get back for a long time. And paying the highest mortgage rates for it than they've seen in decades. Enough that it's worth it to them to surrender the deposit. Imagine realizing you'll be 100k underwater on move-in day. LoL. And perhaps facing a likely lay-off anyway.
Same thing is happening with car loans. A lot of people are starting to let their new vehicles get repo'd. Underwater and facing layoffs.
I'm going on record. (I usually try to avoid strongly worded predictions.) That way you can all point and laugh at me if I'm wrong. :rofl
I think the waiting is over. I think the inflection point comes between now and 17 Feb 23.
The market has been bouncing around in a collapsing wedge of trend lines. Those line are going to converge before Feb 17. The market will have to decide to either breakout and start a new secular Bull Market that might go one for another year or two, or begin the long painful slide down a razor blade toward the historical mean.
I personally can't see any reasonable scenario leading to the former.
I'm short, but I don't recommend that for most people. But lightening up on equities and having a lot of liquid cash would not be imprudent, IMHO. As long as you still have your money, you can always get back in if the decision is Bull Market.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Chris79 on January 24, 2023, 04:17:43 PM
That's part of what's driving this incredible number of deposit cancellations People are doing the math and realizing they will be paying 30% more for the house than they are likely to ever get back for a long time. And paying the highest mortgage rates for it than they've seen in decades. Enough that it's worth it to them to surrender the deposit. Imagine realizing you'll be 100k underwater on move-in day. LoL. And perhaps facing a likely lay-off anyway.
Same thing is happening with car loans. A lot of people are starting to let their new vehicles get repo'd. Underwater and facing layoffs.
I'm going on record. (I usually try to avoid strongly worded predictions.) That way you can all point and laugh at me if I'm wrong. :rofl
I think the waiting is over. I think the inflection point comes between now and 17 Feb 23.
The market has been bouncing around in a collapsing wedge of trend lines. Those line are going to converge before Feb 17. The market will have to decide to either breakout and start a new secular Bull Market that might go one for another year or two, or begin the long painful slide down a razor blade toward the historical mean.
I personally can't see any reasonable scenario leading to the former.
I'm short, but I don't recommend that for most people. But lightening up on equities and having a lot of liquid cash would not be imprudent, IMHO. As long as you still have your money, you can always get back in if the decision is Bull Market.
I’ve been trying to figure out how people could even afford a home, at least where I live, before interest rates spiked. Prices have literally doubled since late 2017, $425,000 to 800k+. Even at 3% interest and 20% down their monthly payments with escrow must be close to 5k a month.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 24, 2023, 04:41:14 PM
I’ve been trying to figure out how people could even afford a home, at least where I live, before interest rates spiked. Prices have literally doubled since late 2017, $425,000 to 800k+. Even at 3% interest and 20% down their monthly payments with escrow must be close to 5k a month.
Part it is a lot of young people who were not investing\home-buying adults in the GFC. They have an intellectual awareness of that event, but they haven't been through it. They have no idea what it will be like.
Scarily, that is also true for a large chunk of Wallstreet. A bunch of young, cocky, masters of the universe who thought they had diamond hands because every investment made money over the last decade. As long as the Fed was printing money like
They don't know how to trade in any other market than that. "Buy the dip" ain't going to work anymore. They don't have any other plan.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 24, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Worth a read. By his thesis, you might see an S&P below 2000. Imagine that carnage.
But it will be slow motion train wreck probably. The horrible part is there will still be two or three really convincing Bear Market rallies on the way down.
Don't get greedy and jump back in too soon. The smart money will reap multiple harvests of muppets with their bloody scythe.
Remember wealth preservation should trump a little more profit. Don't run out to pick up pennies off the track in front of an approaching freight train. It ain't worth it!
If you lose 50%, you then have to make 100% on what's left JUST to get back to where you started. It's really hard to make 100% profit. A lot harder than it was to lose 50%.
Also remember, the NASAQ took 14 years to get back to it's last high point before the Tech Wreck. 14. Years. Just to break even again.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on January 25, 2023, 06:54:40 AM
I think February is too soon
They can play games and keep the dance going into the year
Heck the market hasn't become anywhere near real
If they truly are trying to fix their decades of easy money..much more pain is needed imo
If it was just another expensive shell game..then they will turn the printer back on prematurely starting the bullsheet run again with higher prices to start off with which will end much worse then than if we feel more pain now
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on January 25, 2023, 08:09:53 AM
This is pure payback by the hedge funds who lost their shirts on the shorts they were playing when the GME push made them lose billions on covering their shorts for thousands of stocks. This created "inflation" because they couldn't artificially keep the stocks down and a lot of people who actually sold made good money. The market really wants to run. The economy really wants to expand. Its the powers that be who screwed this up and now the retail are getting squashed while the shorts get their money back. I hope Big Tech enjoys their layoffs. They completely deserve it. Hilarious that it's coming down on them after they helped their dementia patient win. I hope they are proud of themselves. One thing that does remain constant in this world and there is no stopping it is Karma. It always comes back around.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 25, 2023, 09:43:48 AM
Ever see those creepy Chinese Ghost Cities? I think America will have it's own version.
Ghost Suburbs. Empty, unbought, unlived in, unneeded tracts of new homes.
The amazing powers of limitless liquidity. Well, maybe not limitless.
There is someone banging on the door. It's the Piper. He is demanding overdue payment.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on January 25, 2023, 10:18:24 AM
Looks like a place to pile in the illegal immigrants into...once they are pulled from the hotels we are housing them in now
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on January 25, 2023, 10:21:26 AM
Looks like a place to pile in the illegal immigrants into...once they are pulled from the hotels we are housing them in now
Eagler
It just pisses me off so much too. Like I had a diddlyin man who served in the US army come to beg for coin from me at the gas station while they put up these illegals who are mostly men. Now I'm hearing how California is trying to allow them to become police officers. What could possibly go wrong?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on January 25, 2023, 10:28:34 AM
Between the illegals and the billions sent to big U, talk of social security going under is just ridiculous but they continue to make that statement my guess is to scare us..
Americans have discovered they can vote for the most free stuff promised by our lying leaders...
We are toast
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 29, 2023, 01:09:28 PM
It's almost comedy.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: TequilaChaser on January 29, 2023, 01:39:38 PM
Feel That... Whatever Comes... I will stand my ground and never kneel and never back down...
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on January 29, 2023, 03:18:18 PM
Michael Lewis' Flash Boys is an interesting read on this kind of stuff.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on January 31, 2023, 11:24:34 AM
CDEL should be burned to the ground for their manipulation, trying to screw over tiny tiny little companies. Of course the corrupt SEC won't do crap because they use CDEL to burn the market for "inflation". Curious how much they lost on their shorts during the GME fiasco, which really caused the "inflation" in my opinion because some of these hedges shorts got burnt to a crisp and had to cover. Wouldn't suprise me if they were using Aladin AI or something very similar.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on February 01, 2023, 11:17:55 AM
Hoping for .5 at least today but no nuts will only do a quarter and watch the manipulated market soar over 34500
Eagler
Remember they have two levers of tightening available.
I expect them to stay at 25BP but they can accelerate QT. They have only barely begun to do that.
I don't have the link at the moment but I was reading an article where they showed that in total market action, money is looser now than when the Fed started tightening last March. Mainly because investors have kept blindly throwing more liquidity in to the market.
The Fed is not amused. What ever happened to "Don't fight the Fed!" market mantra?
:eek:
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on February 01, 2023, 01:50:12 PM
No nuts strikes again...
Market will be higher by end of week
As you stated they are scared to throw the other lever...as you can see
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on February 01, 2023, 02:53:53 PM
Heck it didn't even make it through the day...the market already recovered >600 points it dropped thinking no nuts was actually going to do something this go round..
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on February 01, 2023, 03:22:42 PM
I'm waiting until Fri to judge how the market is fully reacting. That initial spike evaporated pretty quick.
I'm still holding to my prediction that the roll-over starts before Feb 17. Prepare the rotten tomatoes and my dunce hat. ;)
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: AKIron on February 01, 2023, 10:53:38 PM
I still remember 1981 and 18% home loans painfully well. No cheering from me when the Fed ups the usury.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on February 02, 2023, 07:02:18 AM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: AKIron on February 02, 2023, 11:14:33 PM
So long as government spending grows so will inflation. Inflation grows so will real estate prices. That's just reality.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Well, go ahead.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on February 03, 2023, 07:21:47 AM
When you pass a bill for $$$$$$ trillions of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$...wait ..$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$....you create a slush fund of enormous size that affects the economy for some time to come..
It's still all printed monopoly money that destroys the true value of the dollar but it sets up projects and contracts that keep it going while the nation sinks under a bloated and devalued dollar..
The reserve currency title of the us dollar has to remain regardless the cost or the US becomes Venezuela overnight...more wars are a coming..the big U is just a warmup and excuse to refresh the arsenal imo