Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: WWhiskey on September 16, 2008, 09:36:20 PM
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I'm just to lazy, or tired, to go back and look,but i was thinking it would be thanksgiving before it got this cheap again! I wonder how low it will go now?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080916/oil_prices.html
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Not that their opinion is worth any more than mine, but an economist writing for Time magazine wrote a fairly lengthy article on why oil would eventually stabilize around $100/bbl. I think that's a bit of a high estimate because I think the dollar will rebound with the new President no matter who wins the election, but there are some pretty smart people thinking that oil will stabilize at the price equivalent of $100 in today's dollars.
A big part of the issue is that the world knows that once the US gets rolling in one direction, we can be both pigheaded and very effective. So oil producing nations are terrified that if the US really makes progress towards alternative energy and reducing dependence on foreign oil, there could be a sudden and drastic decrease in oil prices (against the dollar), which could spell economic disaster for some countries. OPEC has already cut production in response to perceived lower demand and actual lower prices, in an effort to keep the bottom from dropping out of the oil markets. I expect them to continue to cut production at least as fast as the US decreases foreign oil demand through alternative energy, lower market demand (people driving less), and conservation efforts. A slowing US economy also drops industrial energy demands, and any global warming effects that decrease winter heating costs will also directly affect oil demand.
Expect to see more moves from Russia on energy prices as well, with their allies getting cheaper oil and natural gas, and efforts to work with OPEC to keep energy prices high for everyone else. Russia's energy exports are both a source of income and an tool to be used to influence world events, so they have no reason to not use it as an instrument of national power.
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Euro tanking as well, dollar stronger this week
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Remember the fear mongers predicting, hell, they were hoping for $300 a barrel before the end of summer.
Where are those donuts now?
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And gas here is still $4 a gallon
Surely the public isnt getting screwed :rolleyes:
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Heard on the radio the other day that the Suadis didn't want to cut production and weren't.
I figure they are afraid of an alternative fuel source being found if gas prices stay too high.
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Euro tanking as well, dollar stronger this week
Where did you get that from? Dollar is still only worth .75 of a euro last time I checked...5 seconds ago.
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Where did you get that from? Dollar is still only worth .75 of a euro last time I checked...5 seconds ago.
Take a look at the price of Gold and other commodities in the last month... Falling like a stone. That often means a strengthening dollar as fewer investors hedge against the dollar by buying commodities futures. Gold dropped 15ish percent just in the last month as oil dropped over 30%, which tells me that some of the drop in oil prices is due to a strengthening dollar.
Or not... I didn't sleep in a holiday inn express last night so there is a chance I could be wrong :)
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I'm just to lazy, or tired, to go back and look,but i was thinking it would be thanksgiving before it got this cheap again! I wonder how low it will go now?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080916/oil_prices.html
also notice our gas is still well over $3.00? remember me saying before that we'd never see it below $3 again?
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our fed screwed up so bad that our dollar will be even deeper in the crapper by weeks end.... look for oil to go higher, especially if the fed LOWERS the interest rate again!!!! thats what got us into this whole subprime mess anyway. i dont think the fed should be able to bail out these financial institutions at our expense without at least a congressional vote.... time to break out the pitchforks and torches
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our fed screwed up so bad that our dollar will be even deeper in the crapper by weeks end.... look for oil to go higher, especially if the fed LOWERS the interest rate again!!!! thats what got us into this whole subprime mess anyway. i dont think the fed should be able to bail out these financial institutions at our expense without at least a congressional vote.... time to break out the pitchforks and torches
Fed announced Tuesday that rate was NOT going down (Not sure what point it would be anyhow...Funds rate is now..2%)
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Remember the fear mongers predicting, hell, they were hoping for $300 a barrel before the end of summer.
Where are those donuts now?
ALSO REMEMBER everyone in other related threads stating that once oil was below $100/barrel, that gas would also drop to the $2.50 range again? where are they?
it hasn't, and like i kept saying in those threads it won't. ever.
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And gas here is still $4 a gallon
Surely the public isnt getting screwed :rolleyes:
Yes our gas went up in price as the price of oil dropped. These oil companys are creative in the way they bend us
over. God I hate these oil companys.
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ALSO REMEMBER everyone in other related threads stating that once oil was below $100/barrel, that gas would also drop to the $2.50 range again? where are they?
it hasn't, and like i kept saying in those threads it won't. ever.
$2.50? No I think closer to $3.00
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Oil price isn't the problem right now. 25% of the refineries in the US still have no power thanks to the hurricane.
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Oil price isn't the problem right now. 25% of the refineries in the US still have no power thanks to the hurricane.
Finally... someone who understands why gas prices are high....
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Oil price isn't the problem right now. 25% of the refineries in the US still have no power thanks to the hurricane.
I TALKED To a friend in texas that said otherwise? are they really down?
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I TALKED To a friend in texas that said otherwise? are they really down?
It is not just that the refineries are down..it is that refineries in place today...even if all of them were running at full capacity..still do not keep up with american consumption needs..price of gas will remain high compared to oil prices because of that
even though..with all the subsidies from the government..american consumers still pay less for gas then most of the non oil producing nations.
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The US west coast petroleum market is fairly separate from the rest of the US. There, prices have continued to fall, from an average of $4.46 a gallon to $3.77 now.
The rest of the US has been hit by the major shutdowns from Ike and Gustav. That's reduced production be a large amount, and led to shortages. Because the hurricanes did very little damage, production should be back in full swing shortly, and the price will fall.
ALSO REMEMBER everyone in other related threads stating that once oil was below $100/barrel, that gas would also drop to the $2.50 range again?
That's a bit over optimistic. At $100 dollars a barrel, the crude oil alone for a gallon of gasoline costs about $2.40. Federal taxes add 18c, state taxes an average of 30c or so. That's up to nearly $2.90 with paying the refiners, distributors or retailers.
The last time oil was under $100 a barrel was the first week of April. The average price for gasoline in the US then was $3.33
I TALKED To a friend in texas that said otherwise? are they really down?
From the DOE:
At the peak of preparations for Hurricane Gustav and later for Hurricane Ike, almost all U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude production was shut-in – 1.3 million barrels per day. Fifteen refineries were reported closed in Texas and Louisiana, equivalent to 3.9 million barrels per day of capacity – 22 percent of total U.S. capacity or 46 percent of Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 3 capacity. Another nine refineries reduced their crude oil throughput. As of Wednesday morning (September 17), shut-in Gulf of Mexico crude production remained at 1.3 million barrels per day while 12 refineries remained closed and 9 refineries were reducing runs.
It is not just that the refineries are down..it is that refineries in place today...even if all of them were running at full capacity..still do not keep up with american consumption needs..price of gas will remain high compared to oil prices because of that
No. Refineries have been running at reduced capacity all year because the US gasoline market is so weak. The refineries have been making very little, if any, profit on gasoline because competition is so intense. US gasoline is actually cheap compared to the oil price. You can see that in refiners margins. 2000 - 2007 refinery margins averaged 16% ie 16% of the cost of a gallon was made up of money paid to the refiners. To the end of August this year refinery margins have been just under 8%.
As the DOE point out:
U.S. refinery capacity utilization has been low this year, in large part due to falling petroleum demand. Consequently, refineries not affected by the hurricanes have some room to ramp up and help fill the product gap
There have been times in the past, notably spring 2007, when US gasoline prices were high because of refinery shortages. That hasn't been the case this year, apart from the last week's price rises due to Ike and Gustav.
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The US west coast petroleum market is fairly separate from the rest of the US. There, prices have continued to fall, from an average of $4.46 a gallon to $3.77 now.
The rest of the US has been hit by the major shutdowns from Ike and Gustav. That's reduced production be a large amount, and led to shortages. Because the hurricanes did very little damage, production should be back in full swing shortly, and the price will fall.
That's a bit over optimistic. At $100 dollars a barrel, the crude oil alone for a gallon of gasoline costs about $2.40. Federal taxes add 18c, state taxes an average of 30c or so. That's up to nearly $2.90 with paying the refiners, distributors or retailers.
The last time oil was under $100 a barrel was the first week of April. The average price for gasoline in the US then was $3.33
From the DOE:
No. Refineries have been running at reduced capacity all year because the US gasoline market is so weak. The refineries have been making very little, if any, profit on gasoline because competition is so intense. US gasoline is actually cheap compared to the oil price. You can see that in refiners margins. 2000 - 2007 refinery margins averaged 16% ie 16% of the cost of a gallon was made up of money paid to the refiners. To the end of August this year refinery margins have been just under 8%.
As the DOE point out:
There have been times in the past, notably spring 2007, when US gasoline prices were high because of refinery shortages. That hasn't been the case this year, apart from the last week's price rises due to Ike and Gustav.
new jersey has it's own refineries. how much of the country do they provide to?
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new jersey has it's own refineries. how much of the country do they provide to?
In normal times it makes sense to supply from the closest refinery. When the closest refineries are all shut down, like in SW now, it makes sense to sell gasoline produced in NJ in Texas.
The only market that's largely separate is the west coast, thanks to California's different regulations as well as geography.
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Excuses excuses...say what you want, but we are getting bent over.
If its not the hurricanes,its that we don't have enough refineries, or
a ship sunk and we lost a bunch of oil,or the Russians took over and oil line,or
a pipe line got blow up by terrorist, or someone peed on a electric wire and shut
down a refinery. get the point??
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Partly that's because the supply situation has been very tight for the last few years. There simply hasn't been enough oil, so any disruption to supply has caused the price to go higher.
But what do you expect in the current situation? Over 20% of US refinery capacity has been shut down due to two hurricanes. That's going to lead to a price hike.
Will you be here complaining next week when the price falls? The week after?
There is a simple way to smooth out price increases due to temporary disruptions, though. A diesel and gasoline reserve stockpile wouldn't cost very much, and could be used when there are large scale refinery shut downs. Why not ask your politicians to require emergency stockpiles?
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No I will not be complaining...I will be happy because the price of gas will fall along with the
price of oil....Thank you
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Partly that's because the supply situation has been very tight for the last few years. There simply hasn't been enough oil, so any disruption to supply has caused the price to go higher.
But what do you expect in the current situation? Over 20% of US refinery capacity has been shut down due to two hurricanes. That's going to lead to a price hike.
Will you be here complaining next week when the price falls? The week after?
There is a simple way to smooth out price increases due to temporary disruptions, though. A diesel and gasoline reserve stockpile wouldn't cost very much, and could be used when there are large scale refinery shut downs. Why not ask your politicians to require emergency stockpiles?
they've tried to tell us there wasn't enough oil before. it was a lie then and it is a lie now.
they try to say there isn't the refining capacity. then build totally tubular refineries. put some of their profit back into their business. hell, i'm 1/2 way to being able to buy my own airplane, but i'm dumping that money into my business instead. they need to do the same. they knew 50 years ago that the demand was going to keep rising. did they think that the few refineries they had would majickly produce more gas from the oil?
kaw has it right.....they use any excuse they can latch onto.
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Will you be here complaining next week when the price falls? The week after?
There is a simple way to smooth out price increases due to temporary disruptions, though. A diesel and gasoline reserve stockpile wouldn't cost very much, and could be used when there are large scale refinery shut downs. Why not ask your politicians to require emergency stockpiles?
yes, because the price jumped BEFORE the hurricanes hit. and it jumped a LOT. the price takes forever to come back down, and never comes back to where it should be.
we DO have an emergency stockpile i think.
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I TALKED To a friend in texas that said otherwise? are they really down?
East Houston is a wreck. The ship channel is closed with 40+ super tankers anchored off shore. It'll be closed for awhile. Galveston is uninhabitable. All of the refineries are to the east of Houston, and they took the worst of the storm. Beaumont's grid was 98% down as of yesterday and not expected back up for 3 or so weeks.
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No I will not be complaining...I will be happy because the price of gas will fall along with the
price of oil....Thank you
oil dropped from in the 130's to less than 100. yet gas went from 3.17 here to 3.49. i don't want to hear the hurrican bs either as there's refienries in nj....and as the oil companies wouldn't be so "overtasked" if they had put some money back into their business and built more.
it's like the govt......poorly managed, they run low, tso they charge us more.
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oil dropped from in the 130's to less than 100. yet gas went from 3.17 here to 3.49.
Where had gasoline at $3.17 in early June? The cheapest I can see is Minnesota and that was over $3.60.
i don't want to hear the hurrican bs either as there's refienries in nj
And they can supply Texas when there's a shortage. There's a shortage in the SW now, and they are buying gasoline from wherever they can get it to make up the shortfall. That means some gasoline is going from NJ to the sw, and that means NJ is short as well.
and as the oil companies wouldn't be so "overtasked" if they had put some money back into their business and built more.
Of course they would. New refineries shut down in a hurricane just like old ones. They could avoid the problem by building a lot more all over the US, and keeping a large amount of spare capacity. But that increases costs, and if the refiners have increased costs they will pass them on to their customers. That means higher gasoline prices.
The answer to short term supply disruptions is a stockpile, not excess long term capacity.
yes, because the price jumped BEFORE the hurricanes hit. and it jumped a LOT.
No, it didn't. I think you are a victim of your own misconceptions.
US gasoline prices per week, according to the DOE:
July
week 1 - $4.11
week 2 - $4.11
week 3 - $4.06
week 4 - $3.96
August
week 1 - $3.88
week 2 - $3.81
week 3 - $3.74
week 4 - $3.69
September
week 1 - $3.68
week 2 - $3.65
week 3 - $3.84
According to gasbuddy.com
(http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/3191/petrolpricesic0.jpg)
we DO have an emergency stockpile i think.
The US has a crude oil reserve. That's not much use when the problem is refinery shutdowns.
they've tried to tell us there wasn't enough oil before. it was a lie then and it is a lie now.
Oil production remained flat between 2005 and 2007, at the same time as the world economy boomed. That's what led to the price increases. There is most certainly a shortage of oil production.
they try to say there isn't the refining capacity. then build totally tubular refineries.
There isn't a refinery shortage. There was following Katrina, and that affected repair cycles and caused shortages for a long time. There isn't any more. There are temporary disruptions due to weather, but the answer to those is stockpiling, not excess capacity.
they knew 50 years ago that the demand was going to keep rising. did they think that the few refineries they had would majickly produce more gas from the oil?
No. That's why they've been expanding refinery capacity. US refinery capacity has grown by about 1.5 million barrels a day over the last decade.
Why do you want more refineries? Don't you realise you'll have to pay for them? Maintaining excess capacity costs a lot of money, and will lead to higher gasoline prices.
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The other answer to high fuel costs is eliminating all the different "blends" of fuel for different states and metro areas within those states. If they would mandate one type of fuel for all areas and quit putting a "blend" for this area and another for that city/metro area then you would see the cost of fuel drop considerably as well.
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What you would see is an increase again as we are told retooling for the straight blend will cost more to go back to. Even if it doesnt.
Fact is no matter what Oil costs, the cherry has been broken and the price of Gas is going to stay as high as it can be kept.
Market, supply or demand be damned
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Take a look at the price of Gold and other commodities in the last month... Falling like a stone. That often means a strengthening dollar as fewer investors hedge against the dollar by buying commodities futures. Gold dropped 15ish percent just in the last month as oil dropped over 30%, which tells me that some of the drop in oil prices is due to a strengthening dollar.
Or not... I didn't sleep in a holiday inn express last night so there is a chance I could be wrong :)
Thanks for the info eagl, interesting(not sarcasm), but how does it disprove the fact the dollar is not stronger than the euro? Maybe I misread it, maybe he meant the dollar is stronger this week than before, not more than the euro.
Confusedly yours,
Mensa
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Thanks for the info eagl, interesting(not sarcasm), but how does it disprove the fact the dollar is not stronger than the euro? Maybe I misread it, maybe he meant the dollar is stronger this week than before, not more than the euro.
Confusedly yours,
Mensa
I did not intend to imply that the dollar was stronger than the euro, only that it had strengthened recently and that will have a lot of implications. Oil will be cheaper, but that will lead some oil producers to tighten supply. The price of gold and other commodities initially dropped as expected, but then some commodities, such as gold, rebounded as they are seen as a save haven in times of economic fluctuation no matter how strong the dollar is.
And on top of that is the fact that oil prices were inflated by up to 50% due to out of control speculation on oil futures as a hedge against future demand and continued dollar weakness. So the price of oil drops to where it *should* be (near $100/bbl before the dollar strengthens, a bit less than that if the dollar improves) but other prices remain high as investors look for ways to mitigate losses in the US stock market and keep their assets from going poof when their retard bank "invests" in bundled sub-prime mortgages that have no real value.
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I did not intend to imply that the dollar was stronger than the euro, only that it had strengthened recently and that will have a lot of implications. Oil will be cheaper, but that will lead some oil producers to tighten supply. The price of gold and other commodities initially dropped as expected, but then some commodities, such as gold, rebounded as they are seen as a save haven in times of economic fluctuation no matter how strong the dollar is.
And on top of that is the fact that oil prices were inflated by up to 50% due to out of control speculation on oil futures as a hedge against future demand and continued dollar weakness. So the price of oil drops to where it *should* be (near $100/bbl before the dollar strengthens, a bit less than that if the dollar improves) but other prices remain high as investors look for ways to mitigate losses in the US stock market and keep their assets from going poof when their retard bank "invests" in bundled sub-prime mortgages that have no real value.
2 p.m. -- The House Foreign Affairs Committee convenes a hearing called, "Exporting Toxic Trash: Are We Dumping Our Electronic Waste on Poorer Countries?"
http://www.propublica.org/article/coming-this-week-0915/
This meeting could have a big effect on the gold and the rest of the precious metals market...
Hedge fund managers will be listening closely