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General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: SysError on March 31, 2020, 04:50:13 PM

Title: Well that sucks
Post by: SysError on March 31, 2020, 04:50:13 PM
Agree?
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Arlo on March 31, 2020, 06:22:20 PM
Mmmmaybe?  :headscratch:
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: SIM on March 31, 2020, 06:33:27 PM
Yea Sys, it was starting to get beyond silly...……………..
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: guncrasher on March 31, 2020, 06:45:53 PM
i was enjoying the facts supported by Twitter.


semp
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: AKKuya on March 31, 2020, 07:01:08 PM
Agree?

 :headscratch:  In the words of Johnny 5, need more input.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Busher on March 31, 2020, 07:11:43 PM
i was enjoying the facts supported by Twitter.


semp

facts? :bhead
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Firetech on March 31, 2020, 07:13:09 PM
It was good for laughs at some at least. Nothing to learn but a dark humor easy to spot.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on March 31, 2020, 07:14:04 PM
i was enjoying the facts supported by Twitter.


semp

Maybe you should run for....nevermind.

 :noid
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: DmonSlyr on March 31, 2020, 07:35:14 PM
Violator was violating and the trolls just couldn't help themselves. Oh well.  ;)
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: guncrasher on March 31, 2020, 07:45:40 PM
facts? :bhead

sorry my sarcasm font is not working right  :bhead


semp
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Arlo on March 31, 2020, 07:51:19 PM
This, too, shall ..... likely get locked.  :old:
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on March 31, 2020, 07:55:03 PM


Dmonslyr was just desperate to get it locked before March was over and we reminded him of his prediction. 


 :rofl :rofl :rofl
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Busher on March 31, 2020, 07:56:19 PM
This, too, shall ..... likely get locked.  :old:

With any kind of luck at all :x
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: DREDIOCK on March 31, 2020, 08:15:18 PM
I was surprised is wasnt shut down a week ago
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Meatwad on March 31, 2020, 08:15:27 PM
 :banana:
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: OldNitro on April 01, 2020, 06:30:59 AM
Ah well, not like it wasn't expected..
Too much topic for some to manage..

But, "It's just the flu", right???? :rofl
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: icepac on April 01, 2020, 06:42:12 AM

That thread jumped off track with arguing on a completely different subject.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: LCADolby on April 01, 2020, 06:52:12 AM
Quote
See Rule 19- Do not place sausage on pizza.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: OldNitro on April 01, 2020, 07:04:45 AM
Was interesting while it lasted..
Should change the name from Officers Club, to the Romper Room..
Or, just ditch some people who can't help soiling the carpet.. Always the same ones..

It's cool.. I'm gone, have other things to do.. See ya in the fall, If I'm still alive..
 :salute

Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Firetech on April 01, 2020, 08:07:42 AM
Just read this...

"Ah, April 1st: the only day of the year that people critically evaluate things they find on the Internet before accepting them as true"
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: puller on April 01, 2020, 08:22:29 AM
For tyfoo

https://www.scribd.com/document/454203091/OIG-Review-FISA-Compliance-Oct-2014-Through-Sept-2019 (https://www.scribd.com/document/454203091/OIG-Review-FISA-Compliance-Oct-2014-Through-Sept-2019)
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: guncrasher on April 01, 2020, 09:26:00 AM
i understand the flu. the run on toilet paper.

but beer? it went up 2 bucks at 711 in past week. i paid 14 and change for 18 pack Budweiser.  a 12 pack was 13.50 today.


semp
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Chalenge on April 01, 2020, 09:57:01 AM
i understand the flu. the run on toilet paper.

but beer? it went up 2 bucks at 711 in past week. i paid 14 and change for 18 pack Budweiser.  a 12 pack was 13.50 today.


semp

Try to buy gunpowder!
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: TheBug on April 01, 2020, 10:11:27 AM
You should be fined for buying Budweiser.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: TyFoo on April 01, 2020, 12:44:24 PM
For tyfoo

https://www.scribd.com/document/454203091/OIG-Review-FISA-Compliance-Oct-2014-Through-Sept-2019 (https://www.scribd.com/document/454203091/OIG-Review-FISA-Compliance-Oct-2014-Through-Sept-2019)

And?
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: noman on April 01, 2020, 01:34:54 PM
That thread jumped off track with arguing on a completely different subject.

That thread went off the rails after about page 10 how it made it to page 126 shows how Lax Hitech is in enforcing the BBS rules. Skuzzy would have locked that thread 3 weeks ago.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 01, 2020, 02:55:02 PM
That thread went off the rails after about page 10 how it made it to page 126 shows how Lax Hitech is in enforcing the BBS rules. Skuzzy would have locked that thread 3 weeks ago.

Amazingly so.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Meatwad on April 02, 2020, 01:35:15 PM
You should be fined for buying Budweiser.

Maybe he used A1 on steaks  :bolt:
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: guncrasher on April 02, 2020, 06:21:51 PM
Maybe he used A1 on steaks  :bolt:

hell no.  i don't have a1 sauce not even leah and parrin or whatever you call it.

steaks get salt and pepper.  that's it.

when i drink i buy Miller if i feel patriotic then it's pbr. or Budweiser when nothing else.  can't stand the bitter fancy beers. would rather get me a nice box of wine for less.

semp
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 02, 2020, 07:29:17 PM
hell no.  i don't have a1 sauce not even leah and parrin or whatever you call it.

steaks get salt and pepper.  that's it.

when i drink i buy Miller if i feel patriotic then it's pbr. or Budweiser when nothing else.  can't stand the bitter fancy beers. would rather get me a nice box of wine for less.

semp

Lee and Perrin is good to cook with.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: asterix on April 03, 2020, 12:28:55 PM
And another one bites the dust.  :rofl
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 03, 2020, 12:49:59 PM
Yup some can't control themselves.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 03, 2020, 01:24:17 PM
Simple nomenclature correction. R is the reproduction rate. R0 is a viruses reproduction rate with no intervention. R0 never changes unless a virus changes. Isolation lowers R not R0.

Well the Wiki explains it as:
Quote
R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number)


I would argue cultural practices and mitigation strategies like quarantine affect the R0.  I could post additional quotes like the one from the CDC that Asterix did (I was preparing a stack of them), but I don't see the point of getting lost in the weeds.  For the purposes of this discussion, I will accept which ever term you wish to agree upon. You can call it "Foo" if you want.



Quote
Also I am always wondering why people don't take the other side of the equation.  I.E. 2 balancing issues economy vs virus.

I'm always balancing the cost:benefit.  Believe me, it is not something I am taking lightly.

So the extreme arguments go:

1.  What about the massive economic Depression that will result from all this quarantine? What about the failed business and lost retirements?  What about the financial cost?

2.  My argument in return would be: Well, can you give me the exact dollar value for the lives of your family members? We can't calculate the economic trade-off without that metric.

Those are both extreme arguments, but they both have a point.  I always try to remind myself the numbers on that daily counter are real people.  It may not be your loved one, yet, but each one is somebody's something.  So when you see the numbers, pretend one of your loved ones is in that statistic.  That is a cruel, but necessary discipline to make sure you are not over-abstracting the human cost.  Put it in personal terms you can feel, because it is personal for someone.

But given that you have the ability to support X number people needing medical care. And if your current bed usage is only predicted to be 50 % of beds. Should you wish to increase the infection rate to minimize economic damage?

Are you forgetting about the human cost?  A certain percentage of those will die.  A certain percentage, even if they survive, will have lung damage and lower quality of life and possibly shortened life spans.  Would you volunteer to see a member of your family in the hospital facing that to help our economic benefit?  Sorry, I mean no disrespect, but it is what you are asking of others.  It isn't just abstract numbers.  I put my parents or my young niece in that mental model whenever I try and think about it.  Just to keep the proper perspective.

So yeah, if it comes down to it, I will accept a very large amount of economic damage to keep your family, my family alive.  If you lose your business, if I lose my business, if I lose my retirement, if we all end up living under a bridge, that is a perfectly acceptable trade-off to me to keep all those people alive.  I'd rather dig my way out of an economic depression than dig graves.


No one has elected me King, but if I were here is my basic analysis.

We can always make money again later and rebuild businesses and retirements.  We may never get back to what we thought we would have, but life is hard.
Once people are dead, they stay dead.  There is no way to fix that.  (Or if they don't stay dead, we have a whole different problem.)
If we have 2 million dead, the economy is toast any way.  So you'd end up in the same place, but with a bunch more body bags.

If we were willing to spend as much on the crisis as a percentage of our 2019 GDP (not raw dollar amount) as we spent on WWII as a percentage of our 1942 GDP, then I think we could get through this with a minimum of economic damage while minimizing the loss of human life.  Yes, we'll end up with massive debt that has it's own pain, but pain isn't the same thing as death.

Royal Decree:

1.  I'd keep things under quarantine probably until June/July until certain metrics are met.  I'd follow the model I suggested in another thread that is also being used my many Northern European countries.  Employees would be kept on payroll and the Gov would reimburse and subsidize the business for their salary and to keep them operational.  That basically puts everything in stasis for a period so that things can ramp up quicker when we are ready to do so.  https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/economy-ruined-it-didnt-have-be-way/609334/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/economy-ruined-it-didnt-have-be-way/609334/)

2.  The quarantine would be maintained until:
   a. We have clear evidence that we have bent the curve and pushed it well down below our medical capacity (which might include raising the medical capacity with emergency facilities).
   b. Find some treatments with a cocktail of drugs that can give doctors some weapons to fight this instead of just ventilators and sedatives for the dying.
   c. Get the supply/production of PPE up so that the medical system has plenty and employers can provide masks and gloves for workers they are asking to come back to work.  And sufficient supplies so the general public can get them if you want them to risk going back into stores and getting about.
   d. Wide spread, readily available free testing needs to be in place to identify and isolate infected, especially the asymptomatic super-spreaders.  That is proving to be a key factor in good outcomes places like S.Korea and Germany.

So we trade debt for lives and pay it off later over time. 
Get a minimal set of conditions in place so that easing the quarantine isn't just a cynical suicide pact.

That would allow us to open factories and and certain types of office work back up, but don't expect airlines or restaurants or cruise ships, or movie theaters, or mass sporting events to benefit.  Those are toast anyway until we get a vaccine.
   
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 03, 2020, 01:28:48 PM
While this spreads fairly easily, it seems that most survive it by far.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: hitech on April 03, 2020, 01:43:32 PM
Those are both extreme arguments, but they both have a point.  I always try to remind myself the numbers on that daily counter are real people.  It may not be your loved one, yet, but each one is somebody's something.  So when you see the numbers, pretend one of your loved ones is in that statistic.  That is a cruel, but necessary discipline to make sure you are not over-abstracting the human cost.  Put it in personal terms you can feel, because it is personal for someone.

Are you forgetting about the human cost?  A certain percentage of those will die.  A certain percentage, even if they survive, will have lung damage and lower quality of life and possibly shortened life spans.  Would you volunteer to see a member of your family in the hospital facing that to help our economic benefit?  Sorry, I mean no disrespect, but it is what you are asking of others.  It isn't just abstract numbers.  I put my parents or my young niece in that mental model whenever I try and think about it.  Just to keep the proper perspective.


You apear to miss my point. My point assumes the following. I'm not stating these assumptions are correct.

1. No matter how much we slow the spread, the same amount of people will be infected in the end. (note infected not die)
 
2. All arguments I have seen are that we need to slow the spread to make sure the health system is not over run. I assume that as long as we do not over run the HCS the same number of people will die in the end.

3. The current implantation is drastically hurting the economy and will also cause people to die.

My argument is that in trying to find the balance. If you maximizing the use of hospitals (with out over running) to  minimize the duration you will save more lives because no more people will die because of the virus. And less will because of economics.

But my point is that I have not heard anyone discussing the benefits of trying to maximize with out overrunning the HCS.

HiTech



Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Zimme83 on April 03, 2020, 01:55:13 PM
1. No that is not necessarily true. We can keep the number of infected down until we get a vaccine.
2. This is the most important, but we also want to protect the eldery etc in order to avoid as many deaths as possible
3. To be honest the ship has sailed already for most of US and you are going to fail on (2). Without enough protection for the health care staff the US face a serious risk of a collapse of the health care system. If you had taken the proper actions in time (social distancing, preparing the health care system etc) you could have kept the cost both in lives and money down.

however: A total lockdown is not necessarily the best move, it is something that should be done only if the situation is getting out of hand. 
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: FLS on April 03, 2020, 02:02:59 PM
Zimme aren't you in Sweden? Maybe things are better here, outside of NY city, than you realize.

There's good reason to treat different areas according to the local threat rather than statewide or nationally.  There is also the legal issue about mandating lock downs for healthy people who act responsibly.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Zimme83 on April 03, 2020, 02:12:32 PM
I know that the situation is different in different locations. Even in Sweden -outside the capital the situation is very calm. We also dont have a lockdown, people can be out skiing etc as long as they maintain social distancing. Which an overwhelming majority is. But if your major cities are hurt its gonna hurt the rest of the country as well. And just because its calm now doesnt mean that you're gonna be ok. The virus will hit sooner or later so be sure to prepare and take the proper measures to deal with it.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 03, 2020, 02:15:38 PM
Keeping the elderly home would suffice. Keeping folks that are out in the environment away from the elderly would suffice.

The problem comes from folks just not practicing distancing and washing hands. In regular times you even see folks in public restrooms who never wash their hands. The stay at home affects everyone but is meant for those not smart enough to control their poor habits. Adjusting for the weakest link. One tainted person, who does not care, walks through a group that follows all practices and the bets are off.

Hard closing businesses and hard not to. I am glad our business is essential due to military and oil/chemical industry. I feel for those that are not working. Down here so many are in essential industries that there is still a fair amount of traffic on the roads.

As of today there are 90 deaths due to this virus in Texas. Our state has 28.7 million folks in it at last count.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Zimme83 on April 03, 2020, 02:22:35 PM
The grim reality is: it wont help keeping the eldery home. They are not the 'problem' (they die no matter what you do) the problem is that too many younger people get really sick and ends up in the ventilator. They are the ones thats overwhelms the health care system. And dont get fooled by "we only have 90 deaths", exponential growth is always slow in the beginning, only to explode and when it does it almost impossible to bring the numbers down again.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Zimme83 on April 03, 2020, 02:24:44 PM
As i said: ive seen what this virus does to young and healthy people and trust me: You do _NOT_ want this
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 03, 2020, 02:31:24 PM
You apear to miss my point.

Or you're assuming that anyone who disagrees with your point must be missing your point.  ;)


1. No matter how much we slow the spread, the same amount of people will be infected in the end. (note infected not die)

I reject that argument. 

You are ignoring the effort to develop a vaccine that would give people immunity. At that point they won't be getting infected at all.  It's a race between the two timelines.

By what ever amount you slow down the spread, a larger number of people will make it to the point an receiving a vaccine and then gain immunity.
So you CAN reduce the over all number of people who get the disease if you can delay them getting it until the vaccine arrives. 
Not everyone, but you might could reduce the numbers contrary to your claim.
 

2. All arguments I have seen are that we need to slow the spread to make sure the health system is not over run. I assume that as long as we do not over run the HCS the same number of people will die in the end.

I reject that argument. 

1.  Say through quarantine you slow the spread so that only 10k more people get infected before the vaccine arrives.  1% die: 100 deaths. Say you allow infections to increase another 100k until the health system is saturated before we get a vaccine.  1% die: 1000 deaths.  100 != 1000.

2.  The longer you slow the spread, the more time doctors have to find effective treatments and drugs to reduce the percentage of deaths.  So instead of 1%, maybe you get it down to 0.2%.  So all other factors equal, you would end up with less deaths before a vaccine arrives.


3. The current implantation is drastically hurting the economy and will also cause people to die.

I won't defend the current approach.  I defined in my previous post how I though it should be handled.
 
But even that would be preferable to letting the infection run, hoping you have such perfect control you could stop it on a dime right at the point of saturation.  My guess is you would let it get out of hand and overshoot considerably and get more people unnecessarily dead.




Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 03, 2020, 02:34:07 PM
As i said: ive seen what this virus does to young and healthy people and trust me: You do _NOT_ want this

Lucky most folks survive having it I guess. Pneumonia is never a good thing. No matter if it is from being sick or after an operation.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Zimme83 on April 03, 2020, 02:38:42 PM
Lucky most folks survive having it I guess. Pneumonia is never a good thing. No matter if it is from being sick or after an operation.

Yes. almost everyone of the younger patients survive, but thats not the point. We're still talking around 3 months at the hospital and God knows how your lungs is going to work afterwards. A severe pneumonia is counted as a mild case, a severe ends up in the ventilator.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: FLS on April 03, 2020, 02:43:11 PM
I know that the situation is different in different locations. Even in Sweden -outside the capital the situation is very calm. We also dont have a lockdown, people can be out skiing etc as long as they maintain social distancing. Which an overwhelming majority is. But if your major cities are hurt its gonna hurt the rest of the country as well. And just because its calm now doesnt mean that you're gonna be ok. The virus will hit sooner or later so be sure to prepare and take the proper measures to deal with it.

You guys even kept the bars open correct?  :aok

The virus is all over the country here but it's mostly NYC that's seeing serious problems so far and that's because local leaders chose to be late to act. 

We're also going to see the results of the general decline of competence in entry level workers but I don't expect a SHTF situation unless we get a lot of additional stress to the system like riots.

Even with increased testing the rate of doubling of confirmed cases is slowing and I see people mostly acting responsibly when I go out to shop. 

The majority of infected get better at home with no medical intervention and many of them have no symptoms at all.

The lack of medicine and equipment is a disgrace that will be corrected, hopefully worldwide, before a worse virus develops.



Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Zimme83 on April 03, 2020, 02:47:54 PM
They are kind of open, although noone is there.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 03, 2020, 02:50:40 PM
Yes. almost everyone of the younger patients survive, but thats not the point. We're still talking around 3 months at the hospital and God knows how your lungs is going to work afterwards. A severe pneumonia is counted as a mild case, a severe ends up in the ventilator.

Everyone does not need hospitalization. The youngest I have heard of so far is 6 weeks old passing away.

The oldest surviving is 104 years old. Another fella is 101 and survived. Then there is the 40 year old healthy male that passed from Comal County.

Just because one is young does not mean they will survive, just makes it more likely. Just because one is old does not mean they are going to die for the same reason.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 03, 2020, 02:52:21 PM
They are kind of open, although noone is there.

Yeah, well, our liquor store, marijuana dispensaries, and gun ranges are classified as "essential" and open.   :rolleyes:

Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 03, 2020, 02:57:54 PM
Yeah, well, our liquor store, marijuana dispensaries, and gun ranges are classified as "essential" and open.   :rolleyes:

Liquor sales are through the roof. Online sales are up 245%. My wife says the distributor she works for is selling at a pace like it is July 4th almost every day.

Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: hitech on April 03, 2020, 03:01:59 PM
Or you're assuming that anyone who disagrees with your point must be missing your point.  ;)

Ok please in your own words describe what my point is?

HiTech
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Arlo on April 03, 2020, 03:02:59 PM
Ok please in your own words describe what my point is?

The tip of the sword at my throat.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 03, 2020, 03:05:16 PM
Ok please in your own words describe what my point is?

[Edit]  I know.  Your claim is going to be you are only asking why it hasn't been discussed.

Well, there.  We just discussed it.   :D


While that is the fig leaf, I think you've made your view clear:

Quote
It apoears to me that if your only goal is to  slow the virus as much as possible, you are over looking that increasing in over all damage.

It's a reasonable discussion to have.

I may have jumped past the kabuki dance to get to the underlying implied argument, but who knows how much time either one of us have left, so I'm in a hurry.  ;)



Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: FLS on April 03, 2020, 03:06:42 PM
Just answer the simple question.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: asterix on April 03, 2020, 03:12:04 PM
The lack of medicine and equipment is a disgrace that will be corrected, hopefully worldwide, before a worse virus develops.

Mask wars:
US accused of 'modern piracy' after diversion of masks meant for Europe
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/mask-wars-coronavirus-outbidding-demand (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/mask-wars-coronavirus-outbidding-demand)

Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 03, 2020, 03:16:36 PM
The tip of the sword at my throat.

He was replying to me, not to you.  :D
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Arlo on April 03, 2020, 03:20:36 PM
He was replying to me, not to you.  :D

That's me. Always stepping in the cow patties .... I mean in the way.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: FLS on April 03, 2020, 03:22:52 PM
Mask wars:
US accused of 'modern piracy' after diversion of masks meant for Europe
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/mask-wars-coronavirus-outbidding-demand (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/mask-wars-coronavirus-outbidding-demand)

It's not piracy when you pay for them. 
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: FLS on April 03, 2020, 03:39:21 PM
One of the many interesting things about economics, i.e. cost vs benefit, is the seen vs unseen.

For example TP supplies are overstocked for commercial use because so many people are home. Same with food, anything destined for a commercial market that can spoil is more likely to get thrown away with people staying home. You go to the store and see they're out of something but you don't think there must be a surplus elsewhere without considering the cause of the shortage and the complexity of the supply chain.

Another example is private firearm possession. You can see when the guns are used but you can't see the crimes that are not committed because people are likely to be armed.

Simplistic thinking only considers the seen, and forgets how complicated and interconnected everything is. This is going to be very clear if the shutdown lasts long enough. That's why the balance of flattening the curve vs business as usual is so important.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: hitech on April 03, 2020, 04:03:34 PM
[Edit]  I know.  Your claim is going to be you are only asking why it hasn't been discussed.


:) Let me guess you went and read it again. But yes that is my point.

Quote

I may have jumped past the kabuki dance to get to the underlying implied argument, but who knows how much time either one of us have left, so I'm in a hurry.  ;)

My only real view is that there has to be a balance.

I hear very little real discussion of the pros and cons. Mostly all or nothings.  Which I still hear coming from you.

Quote

1.  What about the massive economic Depression that will result from all this quarantine? What about the failed business and lost retirements?  What about the financial cost?

2.  My argument in return would be: Well, can you give me the exact dollar value for the lives of your family members? We can't calculate the economic trade-off without that metric.


Quote
We can always make money again later and rebuild businesses and retirements.  We may never get back to what we thought we would have, but life is hard.
Once people are dead, they stay dead.  There is no way to fix that.  (Or if they don't stay dead, we have a whole different problem.)
If we have 2 million dead, the economy is toast any way.  So you'd end up in the same place, but with a bunch more body bags.

In both of these statement your assumption is that economics do not kill people. Hence an all or nothing stand point. Your 2 million statement sets up a straw man of doing nothing.

I would argue that if you push the economics to far you are risking the possibility of killing far more people then the virus could. (Think Venezuela).

Hence it is back to a pure lives vs lives discussion , not a value discussion of economics vs lives.

I know what scares me more between economic collapse or virus deaths.

Hence back to what should be the discussion of how to balance the choice of 2 bad alternatives.
Along with discussions of how each type of distancing or prevention method really effects the R0.

HiTech


Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 03, 2020, 04:42:48 PM
:) Let me guess you went and read it again.

You would be incorrect. 

I understood your point instantly, but I also understood that was a fig leaf to argue your underlying premise that we are not taking economic damage seriously enough which you have stated elsewhere.  It's a reasonable discussion to have.

So instead of dancing around it, I assumed you understood that I understood, and we could dispense with the kabuki dance and get straight to your real argument which was more worthy of discussion than "I was just askin..".  We both know you were making an argument by proxy.  Ok, fine, let's unpack it.   


My only real view is that there has to be a balance.

Yes, I know, and knew, hence the discussion of where the proper balance is.

I hear very little real discussion of the pros and cons. Mostly all or nothings.  Which I still hear coming from you.

You would be incorrect again.   

I acknowledged the economic trade-offs and  provided compromise solution of a minimum set of conditions we could achieve that would allow us to relax the quarantine.  And I suggested a stimulus approach that would help keep the businesses on life-support and buy us time until we could achieve that. 

But I don't think you read that far.  I think you stopped there to go tell me I missed the point.  Which I didn't.  I just skipped over the fake point to get to the real point.  Which you are acknowledging now, was in fact the real point.... As I surmised.  ;)


Again, I understand the economic issues fully.  For me it's a strategy based tilting the balance toward which loss is easier to recover from.  I think I explained that sufficiently for anyone who would have taken the time to read it. 

I'm willing to trade-off some real economic damage, even serious damage to save hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of lives, because economic recovery is easier than resurrection. 


:salute
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 04, 2020, 09:46:39 AM
USA #1!!!!!!

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106460301-158598735136020200404bendingthecurveallcountriestotalcases.png?v=1585987369&w=1910)
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Firetech on April 04, 2020, 10:31:30 AM
USA #1!!!!!!
#Promisesmade, Promiseskept

When the nation is dying off and on complete lock down it’s because of state officials. When we’re doing the best ever in history it was all because of one person.

Here’s the explanation on that:

 https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mind-in-the-machine/201808/the-dunning-kruger-effect-may-help-explain-trumps-support?amp (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/mind-in-the-machine/201808/the-dunning-kruger-effect-may-help-explain-trumps-support?amp)
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 04, 2020, 10:40:12 AM
USA #1!!!!!!

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106460301-158598735136020200404bendingthecurveallcountriestotalcases.png?v=1585987369&w=1910)

No accurate charts on how many have it. Not one. Many folks who are counted are over it. They are even thinking now it is not as deadly as first thought since so many can have it with no symptoms.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 04, 2020, 10:57:53 AM
No accurate charts on how many have it. Not one. Many folks who are counted are over it.

You're right in the sense that this chart even underestimates how bad the problem really is. It's probably even worse.

The shadow argument that you, and those of your ilk have been making is that this virus has already gone thorough a large percentage of the population and was so mild most never knew they had it.  That may be true.  There is no compelling evidence for that, but we may find that once we get the anti-body test widely distributed.

If that is true, we should be approaching herd immunity.  You better hope that is not the case.  As you approach herd immunity, your new infection rate should approach zero.  If this is what herd immunity looks like, then we are in deep kimchi.  Because that means this is as good as it gets.  Which means we can expect 1000 and soon 2000 deaths a day to be the norm for the foreseeable future.

Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Eagler on April 04, 2020, 11:09:09 AM
USA #1!!!!!!

Only if you actually believe the communist country who started this whole stinking thing....

<S>

Eagler
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 04, 2020, 11:29:53 AM
Only if you actually believe the communist country who started this whole stinking thing....

<S>

Eagler

That's a fair point, because no, I don't believe their numbers, I just don't know what they are.  My guess is that they've been disposing of millions of bodies. 

Which is just further indication of what we have in store.


:salute
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: TheBug on April 04, 2020, 12:15:01 PM
I love kimchi.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 04, 2020, 12:27:07 PM
I love kimchi.

I got hooked about a year ago. 

There is (was) a little Korean Fusion restaurant down the road that made an incredible gourmet burger topped with a fried egg and stir fried kimchi.  It was insane.  I'm gonna miss that place.

:cry
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 04, 2020, 06:21:04 PM
Just so it is clear to everyone. I am not making a "shadow" arguement. I am simply repeating what doctors are saying. I am not a doctor and don't attempt to pass myself off as such.

Most of the US has a small issue with the virus at this point. New york city has the worst problems. I would be interested to find how many die in New York every 24 hours from other things. Just to get an idea.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 04, 2020, 06:50:34 PM
Most of the US has a small issue with the virus at this point. New york city has the worst problems.

News flash.  New York only had a small issue with the virus a little over a month ago. 

I'm curious....When Trump admitted in his briefing the other day that without these quarantine measures the death count could climb above 2 million, was he:

a.  Lying?
b.  Clueless?
c.  Or is that what you're defining as a "small issue"?





Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: guncrasher on April 04, 2020, 08:08:04 PM
Just so it is clear to everyone. I am not making a "shadow" arguement. I am simply repeating what doctors are saying. I am not a doctor and don't attempt to pass myself off as such.

Most of the US has a small issue with the virus at this point. New york city has the worst problems. I would be interested to find how many die in New York every 24 hours from other things. Just to get an idea.

new York and i hope all states have enough room for the normal flu heart attack, you know normal crap. and i know that is serious.

now add 500 patients showing up everyday.  that's what is overwhelming hospitals. a new flu 4 months old.

anyway death from heart attacks and other serious illness are gonna go up.

semp
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: Shuffler on April 04, 2020, 09:17:45 PM
News flash.  New York only had a small issue with the virus a little over a month ago. 

I'm curious....When Trump admitted in his briefing the other day that without these quarantine measures the death count could climb above 2 million, was he:

a.  Lying?
b.  Clueless?
c.  Or is that what you're defining as a "small issue"?

New york has had an issue for awhile.

In this country you are free to run and hide if you want to. You can even spew numbers based on nothing all day long. What ever suits your fancy.

The president was listening to the same pie in the sky numbers you are.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: CptTrips on April 04, 2020, 09:44:14 PM
The president was listening to the same pie in the sky numbers you are.

So you are saying he is clueless. 
OK, just wanted to get that on record.
Title: Re: Well that sucks
Post by: hitech on April 04, 2020, 10:32:49 PM
You diddlying morons can't keep politics out.