Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: MrCoffee on March 19, 2004, 03:23:02 PM
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China to topple Silicon Valley, threaten Intel, AMD
Country in semiconductor equivalent of "long march"
By Mike Magee: Friday 07 March 2003, 08:01
THE DEVELOPMENT OF semiconductor technology in Red China is a "long march" that is set to topple Silicon Valley as the world's centre of chip technology, a market research firm has said.
In a report called China's Fabless Firms race beyond Foundation Stage, iSuppli said that there's been a migration of integrated circuit (IC) engineers from California and from Taiwan, and that's letting China rapidly ramp up its advanced process technology.
Government sponsored projects including the "golden card", HDTV and multi project wafer projects will lead to several fabless firms – companies that don't need semiconductor factories – achieving revenue of $120 million annually.
And, the report said, the Chinese government will pour $2.5 billion into a dozen R&D products, and is looking particularly closely at investing in CPUs.
Those CPUs include the 32-bit ARK-1, built on a .25 micron process, an eight bit CISC and 16-bit RISC core from Beijing Beida Jade Bird Group, and the more well known Godson [Godzilla? Ed.] which can deliver fixed and FP speeds of up to 200MIPS. A Shenzhen fabless designer is reportedly sampling a 64-bit CPU.
Further, the semi firms have made breakthroughs in communication ASICs, smart card chips, 32-bit and even 64-bit CPUs. Yesterday a Chinese firm announced it had designed its own digital signal processor (DSP).
The report said that Chinese fabless firms will shortly introduce their own design technology using commercial intellectual property, will prove to system vendors that the designs can match foreign rivals, and lower costs by using global and local fabrication plants.
There are big differences between the Chinese and other models, said iSuppli. China's IC industry is a hybrid model that includes OEM owned design centres, design companies, third party design companies, fab owned design centres, IC vendor design centers, and EDA design centres.
While China used $20 billion worth of integrated circuits in 2001, only three per cent of those were home grown.
That is destined to change.
The report said that because of the huge potential market and support from the Chinese government, the fabless chip designers will make HDTV chipsets, Card ICs, handset chipsets, CPUs, and comms ASICS.
While North America dominates the fabless industry and had 60% market share worth $10 billion in 2002, Taiwan has 23.5% worth $4 billion, and Europe/Israel eight per cent share, worth $1.4 billion.
But iSuppli predicts that by 2008, the Greater China area will displace North America.
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=8182
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Here are some interesting facts. In 2002 China awarded 220,000 BS degrees in engineering where the US awarded 60,000.
Here are some figures of the current high tech growth in China
Personal computers sold/shipped
01 02 03 04 05 06 (year)
10.3 11.8 12 14.5 16.4 18.6 (millions of units)
Sales of chips and semiconductors
02 03 04 05 06 (year)
23 28.4 36.8 46.7 47.8 (billions of dollars US)
Gross domestic product
99 00 01 02 03 (year)
787 854 908 963 1043 (per capita)
Foreign direct investment
99 00 01 02 03 (year)
40.3 40.7 46.8 52.7 57 (in billions)
Merchandise trade
99 00 01 02 03 (year)
165 225 248 295 399 (import in billions)
195 249 260 325 418 (export in billions)
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Well I was reading this and thought it was very interesting. Here you might be interested.
http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/8192104.htm
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/8184129.htm
http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/8190066.htm
http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/8184128.htm
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http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/03/17/eveningnews/main607029.shtml
:aok :lol
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do you think the chinese think of "american food" like we think of "chinese food"? or say things like "I'm getting american take out"?
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Originally posted by Gunslinger
do you think the chinese think of "american food" like we think of "chinese food"? or say things like "I'm getting american take out"?
Naa, chinese people are skinny so all they want is rice. anyways so you think I should pack up and move to China?
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Yawn....
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I was recently contacted by Headhunters. Most of you I believe know who they are. They went so far as to track me down at my place of employment. Many of you have probably had contact with them yourselves.
Seems that China is looking for Blast Furnace Managers/ Supervisors with experience. Matter of fact I know they are, I was offered a job in China directing the operations of Blast Furnaces ( they smelt the iron that steel is made from).
The US Industrial Community has suffered greatly in recent years.
Being in Management with a Steel Company I am aware of the fact that the US is suffering a shortage of two important ingredients in the making of Steel. One is scrap.....the other is Blast Furnace Coke, which is made from a mixture of various coals that are heated together to improve their volatility.
China....is importing all the scrap from the US it can get its's hands on, and also importing as much Blast Furnace Coke as it can get on the spot market world wide.
I was informed by the Gentleman representing Headhunters that in 5 years....China will have 20 BRAND NEW Blast Furnaces up and running....they need the expertise to start and run them however.
Blast Furnace Coke is in short supply in the US because of the restrictions imposed by the EPA on the Coal Industry...and Steel Industry as a whole, specially in the making of Coke. Believe me I do believe in protecting the environment. However....China could care less about protecting the environment. Waste waters and air pollution will not have to be controled...no restrictions, and with the huge workforce available...the operations will be labor intensive....not much will have to be spent to reduce the amount of labor to be efficient...hell....they want to put people to work....they have millions begging for an income of some nature.
They mine coal the old fashioned way (we bought some Chinese Coke in 1999, what a fiasco) Shovels and carts....a laborer with a yolk and two baskets, loads the coal into the baskets, carries the Coal to the river bank...and dumps the Coal down the side of the bank of the river...where laborers shovel the coal onto barges.
In this case...no conveyor belts...mining machines and transfer cars...pollution controls...or electric bills. The workers are however issued one set of clothes per year...and when the clothes wear out they are passed to family members. Hard to believe isn't it? BUt it is the truth. Lookout World, China will be the number one economic power in the World in the not to distant future. Believe me...the above is not a falacy...it's the truth...I saw it as well as some of the other Managers of our Steel Company.
By the way.....at this time the US Steelworker still produces more tons/manhour then any other in the world. That is also a fact.
China has huge amounts of natural resources that will finally be tapped. Makes one wonder why we let the Scrap and Coke go to Chine eh? Sort of Deja Vu all over again...only it won't be a killing war physically...will be a killing war economicaly.
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Well, if we continue to watch "Hello Dolly" and ilk like that we should be ready to give up to the Chinese just to get us out of our misery!
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Mark....my post on the Steel Industry is fact. I see it every day.
Our BOF Dept.....(where they turn molten Iron into Steel) is having great difficulty securing "burnt lime". A fluxing agent used in the process of converting Iron to Steel. I myself wish it weren't true. I don't have to read articles about it. I experience this fact now on a daily basis. It almost sounds so alarming that it couldn't be true....unfortunately it is. I've been in this business for 34 years, Management in the Steel Industry. And I've never experienced anything of this nature before.
You might want to speak to the ex-employees of the many Steel Companies that have gone bankrupt...who have no pension, or for that matter any health care.
As they say in a downturn in the economy....Manufacturing is always the first to be hit....and when the economy improves, the last to improve when the economy does also.
Been there...done that...and still doing it :)
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Sorry Hajo.
Didn't mean to cast dispersions on what you said. I am just so terribly bored with "Hello Dolly" I can't hardly stand it!
I worked for 8 years in the foundry business... Aluminum though, exclusively, don't really know anything about how the steel process works.
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Mark! Good to see you again.
I know you didn't Mark. If you remember our History...we became a world power shortly before world war 1. What made us that world power was the manufacturing industy.
remember "The Great White Fleet?" TDR. sent the fleet around the world to impress the world. To show off our Manufacturing capabilities. Yamamoto knew of those capabilities also as we all know.
the quickest way any country can increse their economic standing is on the manufacturing end. Heavy Industry. Durable goods such as Steel, Automobiles, etc. They demand the highest prices and the fastest way to get currency. The US Dollar is usually strong...I say usually....and what country in the world wouldn't want to peddle their wares in the US and get US dollars in return?
Makes sense for them...and even makes so much sense that Govts. sometimes help their manufacturing end sell cheaper in the US by making up the difference in production costs just to get US currency. The Govt. will kick in the difference in production costs to keep their people working...and to gain a valuable asset the US Dollar. In the end...almost paying unemployment benefits...but there arean't any unemployed and get a return on the foreign currency to boot! Good idea! Hey...GW must of thought so to! He let's the WTO dictate our trade policies!
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So the Chinese take the lead by spending billions to advance technology. Then we steal and copy it much like they have done and are doing today. What goes around comes around.
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Iron.....that's the point. They have no need to spend millions on the manufacturing end in technology. They want to use as many people as they can to manufacture....so what if it isn't robot welding, computer monitoring....they just want to employ.
The US Steel Industry has to invest millions in technology to cut the cost of producing a ton of steel. Usually means that jobs are lost.
When I started over 30 years ago, it took 6 people in the Cast House Gang...to get the Furnace ready to be Cast in 2 and one half hours. Now...it takes two to get it ready in half an hour. And with the advancement of technology furnaces are now more productive. For instance 30 years ago it took 18 people in a 24 hour period to produce about 2800 tons of Molten Iron. Now it takes 6 in a 24 hour period to produce 4500 tons.
Talk about using energy. Injected into this mid sized furnace.
550K cuft/hr CH4 (natural Gas)
400k cuft/hr Oxygen
150K cfm wind, generated by Steam Driven Turbo Blower
wind heated to 1800 degrees.
Not to mention the millions of pounds of raw materials fed to the Furnace in Iron Ore, Blast Fce. Coke, Limestone, Dolomite and any scrap that can be obtained.
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if you hve support for chinese characters, it says "Mao's mother was a donkey" :D
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Hajo
China will not dominate the steel industry or any other for that matter for the same reason Japan did not. When I was in Metallurgical Engineering in 85 the Japanese were going to own the industry in 5 years everyone said. Funny how that never happened.
Making steel is dependant on raw materials. Eventually you get to the point where you are efficient as hell but you still have to buy the raw materials. Cheap labour and lax pollution laws are just a temporary advantage that will eventually even out.
The US can still compete as can Canada as long as the steel companies invest in technology and equipment. When they stop doing that they are on borrowed time.
As far as silicon chips go, you are only as good as your R & D. Every time Intel or IBM comes out with a new generation of chip the former manufacturing facilities are all made obsolete. Nothing is stopping the US from making the next generation of chip factory in the US except the quest for lower costs. The factories have a finite life, you invest in them do a product run and eventually the lines have to be replaced with new equipment.
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Oregon and Texas have already toppled silicon valley. With the help of Enron.
MiniD
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Habu....I agree with you in some aspects...others however I do not. One thing China has that Japan has never had....raw materials. Japan has to purchase Iron Ore, Coke and most other ingredients for steel making from other countries. China doesn't.
China has untapped natural resources. Japan has none.
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U.S. Files WTO Case Against China Over Semiconductor Tax
03-18-04 11:06 AM EST
Dow Jones Newswires
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. on Thursday announced it had filed its first World Trade Organization complaint against China over its tax on semiconductors.
China charges a 17% value-added tax on all semiconductor sales in its $20 billion market. But China also gives a tax rebate of all but 3% to makers who design and produce chips in China.
"The bottom line is that China is discriminating against U.S. technology products," Assistant U.S. Trade Representative Christopher Padilla told members of the Global Business Dialogue, an international business group.
The action begins a 60-day consultation period, after which the U.S. can request that a WTO panel rule on the case.
"We have been pressing these and other concerns with the Chinese," U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick said in a statement. "These discussions will continue because we prefer compliance rather than litigation."
The USTR's office said U.S. semiconductor exports to China were just over $2 billion in 2003, with payments of about $344 million in value-added tax during that year.
"Although imports currently represent approximately 80% of China's market, its semiconductor industry is expanding rapidly, with substantial investment from foreign firms," the USTR said in a statement.
In Senate testimony last week, Mr. Zoellick said he was confident the U.S. could win a WTO complaint on the semiconductor tax, as it is a clear violation of WTO rules against using tax policy to favor domestic producers. He said it was a stronger case than a complaint against China's fixed-currency regime, which many U.S. manufacturers say is kept undervalued to promote exports.
China joined the WTO in late 2001. The U.S. and fellow WTO members informally agreed to give China some time to implement its trade promises before flooding the international trading system with legal complaints. However, the Bush administration is under intense pressure to toughen enforcement against China's trade practices during an election year in which unemployment is the central campaign topic.
Earlier this week, the AFL-CIO petitioned the Bush administration to impose trade sanctions on Chinese goods to offset alleged price advantages stemming from poor labor standards. The National Association of Manufacturers has said it is preparing a similar complaint against China's fixed currency system.
-By Elizabeth Price, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9295;
Dow Jones Newswires
03-18-04 1106ET
Copyright (C) 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.