Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Wotan on August 02, 2004, 04:54:18 AM
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Kerry / Edwards looses ground after convention.
I am not much on one to watch the daily or weekly poll numbers but after reading most of the liberals on this forum talk about the speeches at the convention and how they expect Kerry to easily win I thought the current set of polls interesting. Take them with a grain of salt but with no "bounce" (or a very limited bounce) at all it seems a lot folks weren't as inspired as the liberals. Which is surprising considering the DNC went out of their way to avoid the "appearance of Liberalism".
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/01/polls.bounce/index.html
Of the 1,011 adult Americans interviewed, 916 identified themselves as registered voters and 763 said they were likely voters.
The registered voters surveyed favored Kerry over Bush 50-47, a slight change from 49-45 found in a similar poll conducted two weeks ago
Kerry's favorability rating edged up slightly, to 58 percent among registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was at 56 percent two weeks ago. But Bush's rating rose as well, to 52 percent from 51 percent, with the same margin of error.
Kerry appeared to gain slightly on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, with 48 percent of all those interviewed choosing Kerry and 43 percent choosing Bush. Two weeks ago, they were tied at 42 percent each.
But 55 percent of all respondents said Bush does not flip-flop on issues, while only 33 percent said Kerry does not. And 51 percent said they consider Bush the stronger and more decisive leader. Only 42 percent said that of Kerry.
Newsweek they only gain 4 points.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5568072/site/newsweek/
July 31 - Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush (49 percent to 42 percent) in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader (3 percent), according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll The poll was taken over two nights, both before and after Kerry's acceptance speech. Respondents who were queried after Kerry's Thursday night speech gave the Democrat a ten-point lead over Bush. Three weeks ago, Kerry’s lead was three points.
Kerry’s four-point “bounce” is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll. There are several factors that may have contributed to the limited surge, including the timing of the poll. On Thursday, Kerry had just a two-point lead over Bush (47 percent to 45 percent), suggesting that his Friday night speech had a significant impact.
This quote here seems contradictory. With the "smallest bounce" in the history of their poll how can they claim Kerry's speech had a significant impact?
Anyway chew away...
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Originally posted by Wotan
This quote here seems contradictory. With the "smallest bounce" in the history of their poll how can they claim Kerry's speech had a significant impact?
Keep in mind that the proportion of undecided voters to those who have already made up their minds seems particularly small this year (only about 10-15% were undecided in July). Thus by definition Kerry could not enjoy the kind of 10 to 15% bounce that most opposition candidates enjoy after their conventions unless he drew on a substantial portion of declared Bush voters as well as the undecided voters.
If you see Kerry's "bounce" in terms of the percentage of undecided voters, he has made significant inroads and attracted nearly half them to seriously consider voting for him. If these undecided voters remain firmly in Kerry's camp, then Bush faces a Herculean task during his convention to sway them back again.
Keep in mind that bounces tend, as political scientists describe it, to decay to the equilibrium. That is, post-convention bounces exaggerate the effect initially and then drop until they reach the actual level of support. This level may be the same as before the convention, or the level of support may have permanantly increased or decreased. See where those support numbers stand in a couple of weeks.
-- Todd/Leviathn
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To paraphrase, the polls don't mean anything.
The final election results are all that counts once they finally decide what those are in the Supreme Court :D
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Originally posted by streakeagle
To paraphrase, the polls don't mean anything.
The final election results are all that counts once they finally decide what those are in the Supreme Court :D
Exactly. And DMF HATES bad news about Kerry. :D
And some more press bias: (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/01/politics/campaign/01points.html?ei=5090&en=11800ba25496a8cc&ex=1249099200&adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&adxnnlx=1091456818-I1Sy0W2bnWCrfG5mK3z4Pg)
When asked who would be a better president, the journalists from outside the Beltway picked Mr. Kerry 3 to 1, and the ones from Washington favored him 12 to 1.
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This poll was even worse for Kerry:
CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday shows that among likely voters, President Bush reaped a 5-point bounce from the Democratic confab, and he now leads Sen. Kerry, 50 percent to 47 percent.
Story Continues Below
http://newsmax.com/archives/ic/2004/8/1/123616.shtml
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Exactly. And DMF HATES bad news about Kerry. :D[/url]
Nice troll attempt. Obviously I would have said the exact same thing about Bush had this been his convention.
-- Todd/Leviathn
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07/31
CNN/Gallup/USAT (763 LV): Bush 50... Kerry 47
Rasmussen (1,500 LV): Bush 45... Kerry 49
Newsweek (1,010 RV): Bush 44... Kerry 52
Zogby (1,001 LV): Bush 43... Kerry 48
But these national polls are pretty much useless in this election. The state polls (and about 16 states in particular) are where to look if you want to see what's happening.
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The important poll is in November, IIRC. Post-poll entertainment provided by Dade county again this year. ;)
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Originally posted by Toad
Post-poll entertainment provided by Dade county again this year. ;)
Quite likely...
I think it's gonna come down to Florida again... and yegads....
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Actually, I'm thinking it may not be Florida or at least not Florida alone. Given what happened last time, I think just about ANY state that has a very close result will be challenged in court(s).
I think that's going to be "standard procedure" from now on..... as we "unite" this country.
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It's way to early to predict, if it can be predicted at all, but...
A lot of the swing states have a relatively small number of electoral college votes... so a botched outcome may not be relevant, no matter who the courts end up giving it to.
Florida is huge (27 I think). If there's one place it'd make a difference, it's there. So there is where the lawyers are gonna pounce.
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But then it may all come down to a few electoral votes, depending on the combos.
Like I said, I think the precedent has been set. Don't like the result? Head for the courthouse. Hey, it just might work!
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the polls mostly depend on if the man is being asked how he will vote while his wife or girlfriend or gay co worker is around (or some pansy socialist foriegner "subject")
With any luck the men are just saying they will vote for kerrie to appear sensitive or to get laid and then when they get in the booth they will vote for Bush like real men.
lazs
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
Keep in mind that the proportion of undecided voters to those who have already made up their minds seems particularly small this year (only about 10-15% were undecided in July). Thus by definition Kerry could not enjoy the kind of 10 to 15% bounce that most opposition candidates enjoy after their conventions unless he drew on a substantial portion of declared Bush voters as well as the undecided voters.
If you see Kerry's "bounce" in terms of the percentage of undecided voters, he has made significant inroads and attracted nearly half them to seriously consider voting for him. If these undecided voters remain firmly in Kerry's camp, then Bush faces a Herculean task during his convention to sway them back again.
Keep in mind that bounces tend, as political scientists describe it, to decay to the equilibrium. That is, post-convention bounces exaggerate the effect initially and then drop until they reach the actual level of support. This level may be the same as before the convention, or the level of support may have permanantly increased or decreased. See where those support numbers stand in a couple of weeks.
-- Todd/Leviathn
Good grief Levi... it's the O'club, not gradumate skool.
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
Keep in mind that the proportion of undecided voters to those who have already made up their minds seems particularly small this year (only about 10-15% were undecided in July). Thus by definition Kerry could not enjoy the kind of 10 to 15% bounce that most opposition candidates enjoy after their conventions unless he drew on a substantial portion of declared Bush voters as well as the undecided voters.
If you see Kerry's "bounce" in terms of the percentage of undecided voters, he has made significant inroads and attracted nearly half them to seriously consider voting for him. If these undecided voters remain firmly in Kerry's camp, then Bush faces a Herculean task during his convention to sway them back again.
Keep in mind that bounces tend, as political scientists describe it, to decay to the equilibrium. That is, post-convention bounces exaggerate the effect initially and then drop until they reach the actual level of support. This level may be the same as before the convention, or the level of support may have permanantly increased or decreased. See where those support numbers stand in a couple of weeks.
-- Todd/Leviathn
Undecided voters may just not vote at all. I can't imagine many of them suffering through the entirety of Lieutenant Kerry's speech or watched much of the DNC's pep rally. Is there a poll that separates the truly "undecided" from the "uninformed" or "unconcerned"?
From the CNN/Gallop article.
The likely voters polled favored Bush 50-47, whereas two weeks earlier they had favored Kerry 49-47.
The poll numbers themselves are of little value as they will rise and fall. The point my post was to contrast the impression of the convention and speeches some of the Kerry supporters on this forum portrayed.
Personally, I thought it was a terrible convention. I am biased of course; not for Bush but certainly against Kerry.
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Originally posted by Wotan Undecided voters may just not vote at all. I can't imagine many of them suffering through the entirety of Lieutenant Kerry's speech or watched much of the DNC's pep rally. Is there a poll that separates the truly "undecided" from the "uninformed" or "unconcerned"?
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In the aggregate, uninformed/disinterested voters tend to distribute themselves randomly between both parties. As such, their votes essentially cancel each other out. The small core of truely undecided but interested voters makes the difference between success and failure for candidates.
The poll numbers themselves are of little value as they will rise and fall. The point my post was to contrast the impression of the convention and speeches some of the Kerry supporters on this forum portrayed.
[/B]
I think posters here discredit polls too much. I can assure you that both campaigns take poll results very seriously and follow them with extreme interest despite what they say in public. Obviously polls vary day to day with some randomness, but if you aggregate all of the polls nationwide over the last six months you should notice particular non-random trends. However, we do not know if the current "bounce" represents a permanent, long-term change to the polls or merely represents a short-term "spike" that returns to the original level of support over time.
-- Todd/Leviathn
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
I think posters here discredit polls too much.
I hope I didn't give you the impression when I said that the national polls are pretty much meaningless. I think polls are a very good indicator. My comment has more to do with an increased sensitivity to the electoral college system of elections.
The national polls would include (just for an example) a 5 point Democrat bounce in Texas or a 5 point Republican bounce in NY. Both of which are incosequential... unless it's possible to extrapolate this to show what the swing states are doing.
Is it possible? Can national polls be a reasonably good indication of what's going on in the swing states?
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I'm still amazed at the Canadians that actually care about OUR politics...its flattering to no extent! How many total threads about Canadian politicians has the AH OC had since inception? Maybe 3?
Also, this site should be interesting to follow as we wind down and through the election:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
How many total threads about Canadian politicians has the AH OC had since inception? Maybe 3?[/url]
Because we all know how interested y'all are in talking about anything besides yourselves. These comments make me laugh actually... You b1tch about it, but you wouldn't have it any other way.
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Originally posted by Nash
Because we all know how interested y'all are in talking about anything besides yourselves. These comments make me laugh actually... You b1tch about it, but you wouldn't have it any other way.
I'm not b1itching! I'm flattered! Thank you! We RULE!