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General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 05:47:19 PM

Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 05:47:19 PM
Just saw on CNN.

A new study predicts that the worlds polulation will go up by 45% by 2050..

Asia will increase by 39%.

The  USA alone will increase by 43%.

Europe will decrease by 8%.

What is Europe going to do with such a dramatically declining population? This will tremendously affect your relevance inn the world. As I was born in Europe and will always feel a great attachment to my old home, I'm quite worried..
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Gh0stFT on August 17, 2004, 06:13:04 PM
less is sometimes more...

...the future for Europe?

Read the new book from Jeremy Ripotato peelin "The European dream", coming 12. August.

The European Dream (http://www.3sat.de/kulturzeit/lesezeit/69283/)

text is in german language, but i'm sure thats not a problem.

R
Gh0stFT
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: demaw1 on August 17, 2004, 06:35:47 PM
Dont worry, read a book written thousands of years ago ,It will tell ya all about it. 50 years from now,well I dont know for sure ,but I suspect we wont have to worry about that either.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Pei on August 17, 2004, 06:36:48 PM
If they want more population they can just let in more immigrants from Asia and Africa: they are plenty trying to get in.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 06:39:48 PM
Immigration trends were factored into the study, most US gains are from that.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Karnak on August 17, 2004, 06:40:07 PM
Quote
Originally posted by demaw1
Dont worry, read a book written thousands of years ago ,It will tell ya all about it. 50 years from now,well I dont know for sure ,but I suspect we wont have to worry about that either.

People who are dedicated to that book have been saying that same kind of thing for nearly all of those couple of thousand years and they all "knew" they were right whereas those before were wrong.
Title: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 06:43:41 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Just saw on CNN.

A new study predicts that the worlds polulation will go up by 45% by 2050..

Asia will increase by 39%.

The  USA alone will increase by 43%.

Europe will decrease by 8%.

What is Europe going to do with such a dramatically declining population? This will tremendously affect your relevance inn the world. As I was born in Europe and will always feel a great attachment to my old home, I'm quite worried..


First of all i dint know you had such an affection for europe... doesnt show in your posts. I didnt think you belived that europe had any relevance either. :D

i must therefore conclude that this is a bate
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 07:00:21 PM
I have disagreements with the direction europe is taking and I express them.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 07:05:34 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
I have disagreements with the direction europe is taking and I express them.


Geography lesson nr1: Europe = many different countries

Political lesson nr1: The countries in europe are not run by one party so the imigration policies varies from country to country.

You should not comment on Europe as one entity, so you should direct the questions towards the individual countries.

:)
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 07:09:04 PM
Europe is becoming one entity, the EU is a clear sign of that.  As a whole your poulation is rapidly declining, which is going to be a huge problem to your relevance in the world.

What do you think about that? Or are you just trying t0o change the subject and ignore the issue?
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: cpxxx on August 17, 2004, 08:44:06 PM
Well if America grows by 43%. (Where are all these babies coming from?) It will be overpopulated so you can all come to Europe. There'll be plenty of room.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Toad on August 17, 2004, 08:49:32 PM
Yeah, it's REALLY getting crowded here!

Wyoming is up to 5 people per square mile now!
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Lizking on August 17, 2004, 08:59:00 PM
And that is about all that it can support, Toad.  If you think overpopulation in the US is not a problem and a reality, you are mistaken.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: demaw1 on August 17, 2004, 09:05:32 PM
stop overpopulation.....close the border
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Toad on August 17, 2004, 09:06:14 PM
Really?

How much time have you spent in Wyoming?

(It all depends on your definition of "support" I think.)
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Lizking on August 17, 2004, 09:12:39 PM
You said it yourself-the pop is 5 per square mile.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: SLO on August 17, 2004, 09:13:46 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
I have disagreements with the direction europe is taking and I express them.



I have disagreements with the direction the U.S of A is taking and I express them.:D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Toad on August 17, 2004, 09:21:21 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Lizking
You said it yourself-the pop is 5 per square mile.


Apparently you make the assumption that all states are now populated to the maximum they can support.

Is that what you are really trying to say?

That IF Wyoming could support more than 5 people per mile they'd already be there?

Again, "support" has a very different meaning depending on the person you ask.

I'm sure someone from Malibu has a different idea of minimal "support" than someone from Cody, Wyoming.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Lizking on August 17, 2004, 09:23:50 PM
No, the states are not at maximum level yet, and by support I mean supply the water, roads and electricity they need.  Using that criteria(which is both basic and valid), there are large parts of the country that are overpopulated.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Toad on August 17, 2004, 09:37:35 PM
Roads can be built; easily in fact. If anyone felt the need.

Wyoming annually did about $5 billion in energy (petroleum, coal and ng) in the early 90's. Their electricity is mainly generated in coal fired plants and as noted, they have LOTS of coal.

They get 70% of consumed water from snowmelt, a renewable resource and fairly steady in supply. They have a large amount of untapped water in both alluvial and bedrock acquifers.

While the locals probably feel that 5 per mile is getting kinda crowded, Wyoming is nowhere near the maximum level of people it could support.

I'm sure in the distant past someone like you said there's absolutely no way Manhattan Island could support over 1.5 million people. I think they say that's roughly 67,000 people per squard mile.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 09:42:41 PM
Quote
Originally posted by cpxxx
Well if America grows by 43%. (Where are all these babies coming from?)  


Mexico and Asia.

And Mexican women allready in the USA, and I dont mean to play on sterotypes here, it's just true that young Hispanic families are having many more children than other groups.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Lizking on August 17, 2004, 09:53:15 PM
Well, I won't argue, since I don't know enough to, but I did notice you left out the most important of item needed.  As an example, in southern Louisiana, you can support 10 cows per acre on natural forage.  In Central Texas, it is 10 acres per cow.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Pei on August 17, 2004, 10:24:43 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Immigration trends were factored into the study, most US gains are from that.


But the point being a reduction on immigration restrictions from Asia and Africa would see a vast increase in numbers arriving in Europe.

This is the study quoted in CNN
http://www.prb.org/pdf04/04WorldDataSheet_Eng.pdf

It's interesting to note certain things:
Euro average = 88% by 2050

but this breaks down by region

Northern Europe = +8% (inc. UK at +10% which will be entirely immigrants or children of recent immigrants)
Western Europe = -1%
Eastern Europe = -19%!
Southern Europe = -7%

I would think the large drops in Eastern and Southern Europe come from people emmigrating, mostly to Western and Northern Europe and especially from new EU countries to old ones.

It would be interesting to see a break down of the US by states. I'd bet you most of those increases would be in states close to the Mexico border and certain large ports of entry.

I also wonder where saturation point is: the UK has a total population of just under 60 million,  in an area smaller than many US states.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 10:34:42 PM
Whatever way you cut it Europe's overall population is predicted to drop 8% in 2050.  Thats a huge issue when the rest of the world is growing so quickly. I imagine its a particukartly vital issue in europe considering the additional fact of Europe's rapidly ageing population and Europe's generally very high level of government handouts to its citizens. Who will pay for all that with such a dramatic decline in population?
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 10:36:16 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Europe is becoming one entity, the EU is a clear sign of that.  As a whole your poulation is rapidly declining, which is going to be a huge problem to your relevance in the world.

What do you think about that? Or are you just trying t0o change the subject and ignore the issue?


Quit trolling grun. had a drink tonight? ;)
How would you like it if i called the entire american continent USA?

One last time. Europe consist of individual nations. Do not mix EU with Europe.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 10:37:20 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Pei


I would think the large drops in Eastern and Southern Europe come from people emmigrating, mostly to Western and Northern Europe and especially from new EU countries to old ones.


The net change  of such migration on Europe's total poulation is 0 - so it's  quite irrelevant in thsi argument about Europe's overall population decline.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Toad on August 17, 2004, 10:38:59 PM
Most important to a Texan, maybe. Besides, I didn't "leave it out", you did. I was merely addressing the items you raised.

Remember, Wyoming is where men are men and sheep are nervous.

Wyoming is usually either #1 or #2 in wool production in the US.

But seriously folks, cattle are Wyoming's #1 livestock product. On North Highland Prairie (Wyoming), 4 acres are required to produce 1 AUM of forage on this range type. AUM is defined as the amount of forage a cow and calf consume in 1 month (about 800 lb of air-dry forage). Maybe you got too many cows in Texas?

;)

Trust me.... Wyoming isn't anywhere near overpopulated yet. Not that they need or want anymore folks. Just keep stackin' 'em higher and wider in the big cities. Works for everybody.  ;)
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 10:40:33 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Nilsen
Quit trolling grun. had a drink tonight? ;)
How would you like it if i called the entire american continent USA?

One last time. Europe consist of individual nations. Do not mix EU with Europe.


I'm not trolling.

Europe is setting itself up for irrelevance in this rapidly growing world.

The worlds total population will rise 45% by 2050.  Europe's will fall 8%.

Arent you worried? Arent you curious why?

Or are you just trying to avoid the subject by challenging my motives for asking the uestion?
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 10:43:26 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
I'm not trolling.

Europe is setting itself up for irrelevance in this rapidly growing world.

The worlds total population will rise 45% by 2050.  Europe's will fall 8%.

Arent you worried? Arent you curious why?

Or are you just trying to avoid the subject by challenging my motives for asking the uestion?


not avoiding the subject. just trying to get you to undertand what europe is. it is not like the USA with one goverment. We are different nations with different immigration policies. therefore i can not answer for europe as one entity.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: demaw1 on August 17, 2004, 10:50:08 PM
Believe me grunherz, in a few years europe will be far from irrelevant.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 10:51:38 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GScholz
Well, according to our statistics bureau Norway has a stable annual population growth of 0.3%, which is the same as Japan btw.

Edit: Btw. that's a 13.8% increase by 2050.


bingo....it is not the same all over europe, therefore one must look at individual countries.

-edit- norway will have a population of 5,6 mill in 2050 vs 4,6 now, and the money to support it.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Pei on August 17, 2004, 10:58:21 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
The net change  of such migration on Europe's total poulation is 0 - so it's  quite irrelevant in thsi argument about Europe's overall population decline.


It's relevant because you are treating all European countries the same when they are not: there is much more variation economically, culturally and politically than North America for example. What the figures show is that Northern Europe is growing, Western Europe is stable and Eastern and Southern Europe are declining. By far the biggest drops were in those countries outside the EU as well (which are mostly located in Eastern and Southern Europe).

So am I worried about these figures? No: my country is growing at a healthy, sustainable rate. If I was from Italy I might feel differently, but I'm not so I really don't care that much.

Treating Europe as if it was one solid block is a mistake people in the US  make all the time. The different approaches to the Iraq situation should have corrected that.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 11:01:27 PM
spot on Pei.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 11:04:50 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GScholz
Well, according to our statistics bureau Norway has a stable annual population growth of 0.3%, which is the same as Japan btw.

Edit: Btw. that's a 13.8% increase by 2050.


You shouldnt bring up Japan. They are facing huge problems with an ageing population and low population growth rates - its not stable in any way.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 11:06:17 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Pei
It's relevant because you are treating all European countries the same when they are not: there is much more variation economically, culturally and politically than North America for example. What the figures show is that Northern Europe is growing, Western Europe is stable and Eastern and Southern Europe are declining. By far the biggest drops were in those countries outside the EU as well (which are mostly located in Eastern and Southern Europe).

So am I worried about these figures? No: my country is growing at a healthy, sustainable rate. If I was from Italy I might feel differently, but I'm not so I really don't care that much.

Treating Europe as if it was one solid block is a mistake people in the US  make all the time. The different approaches to the Iraq situation should have corrected that.


The EU will have to deal with these problems as Europe becomes more  and more integrated. By 2050 you will have many of those eastern europeans in the EU. You cant discount that fact and the problems it will bring and the tensions it will create among member states.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Pei on August 17, 2004, 11:10:40 PM
Looks like we all said the same thing :).

That's a good catch for one day Grun!
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 11:14:00 PM
speaking just for norway i can say that we will have a few years with an "old" population, but i dont think we should ""import"" more people to counter that because when we have gotten over those years we will be back to a normal growth with a stable and younger population. if we do decide to artificialy ""import"" younger people from abroad then the population will grow alot faster, and a very  high population growth will not make anything better in the long run.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Pei on August 17, 2004, 11:14:59 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
The EU will have to deal with these problems as Europe becomes more  and more integrated. By 2050 you will have many of those eastern europeans in the EU. You cant discount that fact and the problems it will bring and the tensions it will create among member states.


No more so than a massive influx of immigrants, many of them poorly educated and non-english speaking will bring to the US, particularly the southern states.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 11:25:49 PM
You guys seem determined to like these news and be happy with the way things are, which brings me back to my 3rd post in this thread.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 11:31:02 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
You guys seem determined to like these news and be happy with the way things are, which brings me back to my 3rd post in this thread.


and you are free to express them grunherz.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 11:39:32 PM
"if" he thinks that a larger population will give more wealth and influence then i can understand it. this is however not the case at all.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 17, 2004, 11:43:30 PM
Its a bit of that Nilsen.  Just look at it this way, With the world growing 45%, The USA growing 43%, Asia growing 39%, Europe will fall 8% - I fear it will become a world backwater - a quaint place full of the old and ageing and a nice region for the young productive people of the world to take nice vacations..
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 17, 2004, 11:50:05 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Its a bit of that Nilsen.  Just look at it this way, With the world growing 45%, The USA growing 43%, Asia growing 39%, Europe will fall 8% - I fear it will become a world backwater - a quaint place full of the old and ageing and a nice region for the young productive people of the world to take nice vacations..


i understand what you are saying but i just dont agreen with your conclusion or the use of europe as one entity. americans are often very good at pointing out the differences between states in USA yet see europe as one even if the differences between european countries are greater then the diff between states in USA
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: CyranoAH on August 18, 2004, 02:42:46 AM
From your data, I can fathom:

US of A first language will be Spanish

Asia will be as overcrowded as ever

Europe will have increased quality of life thanks to robots doing all the work (those are not accounted for). :D

Daniel
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 18, 2004, 02:51:11 AM
Quote
Originally posted by CyranoAH
Europe will have increased quality of life thanks to robots doing all the work (those are not accounted for). :D

Daniel


Yay! :D

i want a robart !
Title: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: bozon on August 18, 2004, 03:14:24 AM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Just saw on CNN.
A new study predicts that the worlds polulation will go up by 45% by 2050..
Asia will increase by 39%.
The  USA alone will increase by 43%.
Europe will decrease by 8%.

What is Europe going to do with such a dramatically declining population? This will tremendously affect your relevance inn the world. As I was born in Europe and will always feel a great attachment to my old home, I'm quite worried..

1. it's CNN, don't really belive these numbers. these news channels report first and check later. I don't need CNN to know the trend is true.

2. "Asia will increase by 39%." Asia is the world population. If you had a one united mixed world like in star trek, you'll have most of the crew hindu and chinese with one white guy, one black guy and one freak for the minorities to identify with. Not like they have now.

3. "Europe will decrease by 8%." If only the rest of the world followed that example. That's one thing europe is doing right.

"One last time. Europe consist of individual nations. Do not mix EU with Europe."
lol, you have to be carefull with these guys national pride :)

Bozon
Title: Re: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 18, 2004, 03:21:53 AM
Quote
Originally posted by bozon
"One last time. Europe consist of individual nations. Do not mix EU with Europe."
lol, you have to be carefull with these guys national pride :)

Bozon


hehe, i hope it didnt come out the wrong way, but claiming that europe is "one" is like saying that asia is one country :D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Gh0stFT on August 18, 2004, 04:38:23 AM
g'morning

Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
As a whole your poulation is rapidly declining, which is
going to be a huge problem to your relevance in the world.

What do you think about that? Or are you just trying t0o
change the subject and ignore the issue?


I dont know where u see a "huge problem",
where did CNN get that info from ? and i doubt you
read my link (http://www.3sat.de/3sat.php?http://www.3sat.de/kulturzeit/lesezeit/69283/) above (use a translator if you dont understand it).
I believe in a possible great future for Europe, similar how Jeremy Ripotato peelins see it:

"In his newest book, The European Dream: How Europe’s Vision of the
Future is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream, Mr. Ripotato peelin argues
that while the great American Dream is fading, a powerful new
European Dream is beginning to capture the attention and imagination
of the world.  The nascent European Dream, says Ripotato peelin, is, in many
respects, the mirror opposite of the American Dream, but far better
suited to meet the challenges of a globalizing society in the
21st century.  Ripotato peelin draws on more than twenty years of personal
experience working in Europe, where he has advised heads of state
and political parties, consulted with Europe’s leading companies,
and helped spur grass-roots, environmental, and social justice campaigns."

The Foundation on Economic Trends  (http://www.foet.org/JeremyRipotato peelin.htm)

R
Gh0stFT
Title: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: deSelys on August 18, 2004, 05:08:03 AM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
...
Europe will decrease by 8%.
...



Mmmph...if the Bermuda Islands had been kept in the Commonwealth, they would still be part of Europe right now and thanks to Curval's magic powers the figure would be close to +20%...
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: airguard on August 18, 2004, 05:29:14 AM
If Europe decrease with 8 % it would be good for the world, its already to overpopulated, guess Europeans have understood somthing and doing somthing with it :) (yeah I know thats bl****)

Lots of reasons and the easy one is that it cost to much to get childs these days, and for not saying the Days still only got 24 hours vs the workload and effectivitiness is growing. That means less time to spend with the childs, witch every human beeing know is bad for a child, they need their parents around for atleast some hours not only when they sleep.
Well what do I know just a tough.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 18, 2004, 05:46:42 AM
Quote
Originally posted by airguard
If Europe decrease with 8 % it would be good for the world, its already to overpopulated, guess Europeans have understood somthing and doing somthing with it :) (yeah I know thats bl****)

Lots of reasons and the easy one is that it cost to much to get childs these days, and for not saying the Days still only got 24 hours vs the workload and effectivitiness is growing. That means less time to spend with the childs, witch every human beeing know is bad for a child, they need their parents around for atleast some hours not only when they sleep.
Well what do I know just a tough.


this is not a hijacking, but how does you graphics card work in ah2 airguard?
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Saintaw on August 18, 2004, 07:05:11 AM
"We couldn't care less what you think of Yurop" ™
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Stringer on August 18, 2004, 08:08:48 AM
Listen Saw,
If they can't get Beer Musuems to open on Saturdays, then they're doomed....doomed, I tell you!
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: slimm50 on August 18, 2004, 09:14:41 AM
Quote
Originally posted by demaw1
Dont worry, read a book written thousands of years ago ,It will tell ya all about it. 50 years from now,well I dont know for sure ,but I suspect we wont have to worry about that either.

Heh, you know something nobody else does? Like maybe the date of the second-coming?

edit: you are talking the Bible, aren't ya? If not that, what?
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 18, 2004, 09:20:42 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Gh0stFT
g'morning

 

I dont know where u see a "huge problem",
where did CNN get that info from ? and i doubt you
read my http://www.3sat.de/kulturzeit/lesezeit/69283/ (http://www.3sat.de/3sat.php?[url)]link[/URL] above (use a translator if you dont understand it).
I believe in a possible great future for Europe, similar how Jeremy Ripotato peelins see it:

"In his newest book, The European Dream: How Europe’s Vision of the
Future is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream, Mr. Ripotato peelin argues
that while the great American Dream is fading, a powerful new
European Dream is beginning to capture the attention and imagination
of the world.  The nascent European Dream, says Ripotato peelin, is, in many
respects, the mirror opposite of the American Dream, but far better
suited to meet the challenges of a globalizing society in the
21st century.  Ripotato peelin draws on more than twenty years of personal
experience working in Europe, where he has advised heads of state
and political parties, consulted with Europe’s leading companies,
and helped spur grass-roots, environmental, and social justice campaigns."

The Foundation on Economic Trends  (http://www.foet.org/JeremyRipotato peelin.htm)

R
Gh0stFT


I read a lot about Ripotato peelin's book and his idea of Europe's dream.

Here's my take on it. BTW why arent you all offended by his use of the general term "Europe?"

1) Will be difficult to pay for all those fancy euro style social welfare and leisure programs with a stagnant  or shrinking population especially as Europe's poulations are going to age and get out of the workforce and dont pay all those fat taxes any more.

2) Sometime between now and 2050 Europe as a whole will have to pay a lot more for it's self defense. The cold war will be long over and the USA will not be subsidizing your defense with huge US troop presence. We are seeing the beggining of this now with Bush's troop movement idea. More money for defense means less money for fancy euro socialism.

3) Worldwide economic growth, especially in asia (China and India) will make the world much more competitive and will orient world economic activity towards the Pacific ocean, away from Europe.

4) Mid east oil prices will rise dramatically as China and India grow and suck in that oil. This is devestating for Euro econ as you guys get most of your oil from the ME - far more in fact thatn the USA.

5) European poulations are ageing, this is simply a problem no matter how you spin it.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 18, 2004, 10:14:53 AM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
I read a lot about Ripotato peelin's book and his idea of Europe's dream.

Here's my take on it. BTW why arent you all offended by his use of the general term "Europe?"

1) Will be difficult to pay for all those fancy euro style social welfare and leisure programs with a stagnant  or shrinking population especially as Europe's poulations are going to age and get out of the workforce and dont pay all those fat taxes any more.

2) Sometime between now and 2050 Europe as a whole will have to pay a lot more for it's self defense. The cold war will be long over and the USA will not be subsidizing your defense with huge US troop presence. We are seeing the beggining of this now with Bush's troop movement idea. More money for defense means less money for fancy euro socialism.

3) Worldwide economic growth, especially in asia (China and India) will make the world much more competitive and will orient world economic activity towards the Pacific ocean, away from Europe.

4) Mid east oil prices will rise dramatically as China and India grow and suck in that oil. This is devestating for Euro econ as you guys get most of your oil from the ME - far more in fact thatn the USA.

5) European poulations are ageing, this is simply a problem no matter how you spin it.


No wonder you moved Grunherz....we truly are funked! :D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Otto on August 18, 2004, 10:45:35 AM
What is the future for Europe..?

Himmmmm?   I see seven good years.....   followed by seven bad years....  and then.....,  and then...  Aaah..  it's hard to say but I think a Motorcycle Gang moves on next door....  That's parts a little fuzzy,,,,
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nashwan on August 18, 2004, 11:18:38 AM
Quote
4) Mid east oil prices will rise dramatically as China and India grow and suck in that oil. This is devestating for Euro econ as you guys get most of your oil from the ME - far more in fact thatn the USA.


Why is that a factor?

You think the Venezualens will continue selling oil to the US for $40 a barrel when the European, Indians or Chinese will pay $60?

The oil price goes up in line with supply/demand. It goes up for everyone at the same rate.

Witness the $47 a barrel in the US markets now.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Sparks on August 18, 2004, 11:24:21 AM
Quote
I  also wonder where saturation point is: the UK has a total population of just under 60 million, in an area smaller than many US states.


Saturation point is here - take any page out of a UK road atlas and overlay it on a page from say - Wyoming - of the same scale and see the road density.  I'm finding I dislike 9 out of 10 people I see on the street just on sight.  Rat cage syndrome............

And it's going to go up by how much ??? and from immigration and breeding immigrant's - I'm so pleased to be here :rolleyes:

If any of you americans who haven't been to the UK want to see what a crowded country sounds like tune in to BBC Radio 2 on the net on a Friday afternoon (UK time) with a map of the country next to you and listen to the traffic report.  Highlight all roads mentioned with jams ....................  will be a colourful piece of paper.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Glasses on August 18, 2004, 11:26:53 AM
In 46 years there will be a robot in each home there will be 20foot mecha running rampage through the streets with 50mm cannons and jumpacks and  lil midgets cleaning them and then you'll see the Japanese invade San Francisco in their Mecha annexing it to their empire and they'll soon turn gay , and the US won't do anything they'll be  too busy with reproduction,and besides no one cares.  
Finally,  I'll get to fly a mecha even at my old age,or get crushed by one, but so will many,as they will replace the SUVs of today.

And as for source of energy the world will stop pumping fosil based fuels, and instead fish  Large whales and breed them and gut them for their oil,itr'll be a new world with biodegradable  fuel form whales  :D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Gh0stFT on August 18, 2004, 03:25:27 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
I read a lot about Ripotato peelin's book and his idea of Europe's dream.

Here's my take on it. BTW why arent you all offended by his use of the general term "Europe?"

1) Will be difficult to pay for all those fancy euro style social welfare and leisure programs with a stagnant  or shrinking population especially as Europe's poulations are going to age and get out of the workforce and dont pay all those fat taxes any more.

2) Sometime between now and 2050 Europe as a whole will have to pay a lot more for it's self defense. The cold war will be long over and the USA will not be subsidizing your defense with huge US troop presence. We are seeing the beggining of this now with Bush's troop movement idea. More money for defense means less money for fancy euro socialism.

3) Worldwide economic growth, especially in asia (China and India) will make the world much more competitive and will orient world economic activity towards the Pacific ocean, away from Europe.

4) Mid east oil prices will rise dramatically as China and India grow and suck in that oil. This is devestating for Euro econ as you guys get most of your oil from the ME - far more in fact thatn the USA.

5) European poulations are ageing, this is simply a problem no matter how you spin it.


1) What is not difficult to pay today? our "fancy euro style social welfare" is worth it IMHO.

2) What defense and against what ? We are decreasing our millitary anyway and spend
the money in other more important things (see above).

3) ...will orient world economic activity towards the Pacific ocean, away from Europe.
and away from north Amerika.

4) For Germany the two most important supplier countries are Norway and Great Britain.
Why should be that only devastating to Europe? the whole world is in aprox 40 years empty
of oil anyway and who is exhausting more oil today? USA by far more then Europe.

5) And what are you suggesting against this problem ? less vitamins?
or more Prozac? more s**, or what ? ;)

g'night cu in 50 years!

R
Gh0stFT
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Toad on August 18, 2004, 03:29:18 PM
Ah, but Sparks it's not ALL like that, is it?

I loved the area around Dartmoor. The farms weren't large but the area certainly wasn't overpopulated in the "city" sense. Still plenty of room for an outdoor lifestyle.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: AKS\/\/ulfe on August 18, 2004, 03:31:12 PM
The US population increases by 43%?

Europe will be fine. The US will be overpopulated, underpaid, and falling apart.

A population increase, especially at this point, is NOT a good thing. They won't be moving to the sparsely populated middle states.
-SW
Title: Re: Re: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Krusher on August 18, 2004, 03:33:51 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Nilsen
hehe, i hope it didnt come out the wrong way, but claiming that europe is "one" is like saying that asia is one country :D


yea if Europe was "one" they wouldn't have started two world wars that resulted in over one hundred million plus people killed in the last century.

nope they are a long way from being "one"
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Krusher on August 18, 2004, 03:42:34 PM
Statistics indicate within 50 years, India will overtake China as the world's most populous nation as the global population swells past 9 billion.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: J_A_B on August 18, 2004, 04:23:04 PM
Why do some of these people treat population as if it's a good thing?  


I agree with SWule--a 45% increase in the US population will mostly hurt, and it'll hurt most in the cities and their surrounding suburbs.


The problem is that due to modern improvements in longevity in the western countries, it is no longer really possible to have a stable population that is also young.  You either have a lot of growth, or a greying popultion and neither is really a good thing.


J_A_B
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Saintaw on August 18, 2004, 04:47:05 PM
Krusher, that's a bit shortsighted... didin't your ppl kill each other (south/north) about 100 years ago?
Why would it be different here?

Stringer, you WILL have to come on fridays, YOU are the one who is doomed if you don't :D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: airguard on August 18, 2004, 04:54:50 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Nilsen
this is not a hijacking, but how does you graphics card work in ah2 airguard?


It is very good with the drivers i got now its stable at 72 fps with full aa an as on (my monitor cant handle more than 72)

all in all it cost to much but as usual im the hardware dweeb I always been :)
Title: Re: Re: Re: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: airguard on August 18, 2004, 05:04:11 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Krusher
yea if Europe was "one" they wouldn't have started two world wars that resulted in over one hundred million plus people killed in the last century.

nope they are a long way from being "one"


It is a little bit more complexed than youre 2 lines of Intelligent analyze shows.

Dig in history and do it a little better, dont have the time to educate you right now.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Chortle on August 18, 2004, 05:21:46 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Sparks
Saturation point is here - take any page out of a UK road atlas and overlay it on a page from say - Wyoming - of the same scale and see the road density.  I'm finding I dislike 9 out of 10 people I see on the street just on sight.  Rat cage syndrome............

And it's going to go up by how much ??? and from immigration and breeding immigrant's - I'm so pleased to be here :rolleyes:

If any of you americans who haven't been to the UK want to see what a crowded country sounds like tune in to BBC Radio 2 on the net on a Friday afternoon (UK time) with a map of the country next to you and listen to the traffic report.  Highlight all roads mentioned with jams ....................  will be a colourful piece of paper.
Wow, take it easy there fellah. Someone less discerning than me might take offense to this.
Title: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Krusher on August 18, 2004, 05:47:46 PM
Quote
Originally posted by airguard
It is a little bit more complexed than youre 2 lines of Intelligent analyze shows.

Dig in history and do it a little better, dont have the time to educate you right now.


I was pointing out the lengthy history of European conflicts to agree with Nielson's point of  view that Europe is not "one"?

So rather than hijack this thread by trading insults, I bow to your superior knowledge on the topic.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Overlag on August 18, 2004, 06:04:20 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Europe is becoming one entity, the EU is a clear sign of that.  As a whole your poulation is rapidly declining, which is going to be a huge problem to your relevance in the world.

What do you think about that? Or are you just trying t0o change the subject and ignore the issue?


population isnt everything, look at africa, MILLIONS of starving people doing nothing but whining for handouts
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: demaw1 on August 18, 2004, 07:41:45 PM
Saintaw......why would it be different here...


   Perfect example of europes ...everything and everyone is equal syndrome....I mean great example....

   Civil war involved only America, yes several million killed and wounded, much destruction. But we only killed each other...

   Europe was responseable for 100 million dead and wounded,tried to wipe a race of people off the face of the earth. Put 100s of millions of people under slavery, to the state and in fear of their life.

   must I go on?
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: cpxxx on August 18, 2004, 08:06:39 PM
Demaw that was not 'Europe'. That was the Germans....... oh and the Russians. BTW the ACW was fought by Europeans and descendants of Europeans.  Remember too that 200 years is only a chapter in European history. America hasn't been around long enough to mess up like Europe has over the centuries.

Europe is not a political description anyway merely a geographical one.  It's certainly not a single  'entity' with a single identity. Despite the efforts of some enthusiasts to bring us all together. Not all of Europe will decline in population. Ireland has plenty of room and a young population. We used to have an 8 million population but famine and emigration reduced that to about 4 million. I can take you a half hour drive out of Dublin city  and show you a place where there is literally nothing man made in view for miles except the road.  
Countries like Poland and other Eastern countries will grow as they get richer. The decline in population will mostly effect Germany, France etc.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 18, 2004, 08:16:30 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Overlag
population isnt everything, look at africa, MILLIONS of starving people doing nothing but whining for handouts


But Europeans arent starving, not even the poorest one. Yet population is declining...
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Overlag on August 18, 2004, 08:34:29 PM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
But Europeans arent starving, not even the poorest one. Yet population is declining...


population control is a GOOD thing

having babies replace the old at a equal rate is what everyone should hope for....most problems in the world are due to overpopulation. Countries "wishing" for population booms are trying to solve problems the easy way. You know in Japan you get charged if you have more than one baby? (err i remember that being true, but i cant find any source on that now so maybe its changed....)

And right now the UK is at bursting point. id hate to have anything like a 40% increase that you lot think is so great.

The more people the world has, the more money you have to spend to keep them here its a equal effect, you dont GAIN anything from increased population, but then america unimployment rate is terrible right? why have more people if you cant get jobs for them? lol
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: demaw1 on August 18, 2004, 11:39:22 PM
Cpxxx, I am drawing a blank on acw I know what it is just cant bring it to mind.  You kinda forgot France, Italy, Romania, Austria,Balkins,Hungary ,Poland ,I am sure I forgot some from ww1, Anywhay that is enough. Believe me you dont want to go back more than 200 years. Basically europe.

   Soon Europe will be one, and those countries that wont agree will be no more. Its as easy to see as looking back at 1932.

 I am not in on the population debate ,as I said before Soon  Europe will play a huge part in geo-politics. I wouldnt be a bit suprised if the muslim played a large role in europe.

 Cant be American civil war ,europe play only a little bitty tinnie part in that.
Title: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: _Schadenfreude_ on August 19, 2004, 12:08:28 AM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Just saw on CNN.

A new study predicts that the worlds polulation will go up by 45% by 2050..

Asia will increase by 39%.

The  USA alone will increase by 43%.

Europe will decrease by 8%.

What is Europe going to do with such a dramatically declining population? This will tremendously affect your relevance inn the world. As I was born in Europe and will always feel a great attachment to my old home, I'm quite worried..


I'd be more worried about learning to speak Spanish if I was you.
Title: Re: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Gunslinger on August 19, 2004, 12:26:18 AM
Quote
Originally posted by _Schadenfreude_
I'd be more worried about learning to speak Spanish if I was you.


(http://users.lmi.net/zombie/europe_in_2015/Europe_2015.gif)
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Saintaw on August 19, 2004, 12:44:08 AM
Cool, Lux is still Lux on that map... just says a lot about the place... nothing ever changes here :(

Overlag, it's China who had the child control thing. And I beleive that if it's no longer official, it is still culturaly implied.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: GRUNHERZ on August 19, 2004, 01:57:22 AM
So you are all greatly excited that Europe will become an ever smaller and less significant part of the world.. Great!
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Dowding on August 19, 2004, 03:12:38 AM
I'd say Britain isn't as bad as Sparks makes out. The major cities are... major cities with all the problems that urban sprawl brings. But outside the major cities and urban cnetres, there's plenty of countryside

Gunslinger - that looks like the insert from some BNP leaflet.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 19, 2004, 04:51:58 AM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
So you are all greatly excited that Europe will become an ever smaller and less significant part of the world.. Great!


Not one thing in that sentance makes sense so i still suspect you of bating us. Good job too it seems :D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Torque on August 19, 2004, 04:58:36 AM
Err....isn't the EU the largest trading entity on the planet now, uhm...when the EU said "jump" Bush asked how high when it came to Steel Tariffs.
Title: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Zwerg on August 19, 2004, 06:02:43 AM
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Just saw on CNN.

A new study predicts that the worlds polulation will go up by 45% by 2050..

Asia will increase by 39%.

The  USA alone will increase by 43%.

Europe will decrease by 8%.

What is Europe going to do with such a dramatically declining population? This will tremendously affect your relevance inn the world. As I was born in Europe and will always feel a great attachment to my old home, I'm quite worried..


50 years. That's a long period to make predictions.

1) Europe already has a high density of population. We have had our population explosion starting 400 years ago.
2) A high rate of old people in a population is an indicator for a high standard of living.
3) Either the regions with fastly growing population will catch up in standard of living which means they won't keep up the growth of population or they'll have huge problems and not play any major role in the world.
4) Population is only 1 factor for the importance of a politic entity. Regarding developpment of science and technic, population as a factor is decreasing. That's why the European countries in the past gained a worldwide influence far beyond their initial potential of both population and area.
5) If other regions manage to develop their standard of living (point 3), Europe's importance will decrease (and people will still have a good life).  I hope this will happen. Otherwise the people living in the 21th century will look back at the 20th century and speak of it as a golden age with some "little wars".
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Chortle on August 19, 2004, 06:49:26 AM
Good points Zwerg. UK is pretty much pioneering the genetic stem cell research, so there might be fewer of us but we'll all be 18 feet tall with 2 brains and the girls will love us ;)
Title: Re: Re: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Overlag on August 19, 2004, 09:13:44 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Gunslinger
(http://users.lmi.net/zombie/europe_in_2015/Europe_2015.gif)


:rofl :rofl :rofl
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Zwerg on August 19, 2004, 09:48:27 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Chortle
[...] we'll all be 18 feet tall with 2 brains and the girls will love us ;)


especially the 2 brains i guess... :p
Title: Re: Re: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: _Schadenfreude_ on August 19, 2004, 11:33:05 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Gunslinger
(http://users.lmi.net/zombie/europe_in_2015/Europe_2015.gif)


Yes, yes we all know you're a complete idiot - what else is new?
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Thrawn on August 19, 2004, 11:36:08 AM
This thread isn't even a good troll.
Title: Re: Re: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Curval on August 19, 2004, 12:18:46 PM
Quote
Originally posted by deSelys
Mmmph...if the Bermuda Islands had been kept in the Commonwealth, they would still be part of Europe right now and thanks to Curval's magic powers the figure would be close to +20%...


lol...actually we are part of the Commonwealth, but still are not considered "Europe" for those stats.

I'd be happy to donate some of my "swimmers" tho....if it will help you guys out.

Please forward pics of potential donees.

;) :D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Sparks on August 19, 2004, 12:33:20 PM
Well Toad it depends how you look at it.  Yes dartmoor is nice - rugged moorland and some space but in reality just how much wilderness is there ??  According to the fact sheet the Dartmoor National park is only 368 sq miles - about 19 miles by 19 - hardy huge.  Scotland has the only real wilderness left.  The rest of lowland UK is populated.

Dowding it's my feeling of the UK.  You say there is plenty of countryside - take a map out of say ...... gloucestershire, and pick a unclassified road.  Now draw a radius from the most remote part on that road and see how far out you go before you hit a building or another road - it won't be more than a few miles.  And the next bright idea is to make the M11 - A14 an urban corridor - built up from Stansted to Peterborough - planning is underway - thats 70 miles of unbroken urban sprawl.

Chortle - I sick of taking it easy and I don't particularly give a damn any more about upsetting peoples political sensitivities. The fact is we are hemoraging resource through the social system in to an ever increasing immigrant population - of what ever race and colour.  We don't have enough resource to fulfill the needs of those who have lived here for the last say 30 years - of whatever race and colour.  We don't have the health resource, elderly care resource, housing, transport infrastructure.- you name it.  

As for the greater Europe - with the expansion of the EU we will see pay and conditions in the Western European states fall towards the Eastern nations levels while they climb towards ours - the settling point will be somewhere in between but living standards will ineveitably fall in Western members.  With education standards falling in Western states (particulary UK) and skilled / qualified workers available from eastern member states willing to work for low wages we will see a growing population of young un-employable graduates. In order to supply the very low pay end of industry (to keep compettitive with the far east) we will continue to allow immigration from the arab / eastern / asia area which will lead to an increased percentage of Islamic population ( ohhh errrrrr how non PC shock gasp).  Like it or not the Islamic communities are much more politicaly active than other cultures and so we will see increasing pressure on legislation to sway political and social descion making to tender to that populations needs - it is a democracy you know. France is already seing this and is fighting it - in the words of a French politician on TV recently they would prefer to make "Islam more French than France more Islamic" in their country.
Soooo - you have a resident population seeing falling living standards, reduced access to traditionally available resources and reduced oportunities for their children looking at a political situation swinging out of their control. You work out where that goes .................

Now in UK you overlay a 10% increase in population from immigration and the traditionally larger subsequent family size of the incoming immigrants (particularly after their perceived prosperity in the new country and access to resource they are unaccustomed to) and the pressure increases.

But I should take it easy ..........

This is all very un PC and I'm sure dowding and others will jump on me but it is a growing feeilng in the middle classes - may be unpleasant but it exists.  I don't believe population decrease is the risk in Europe - falling living standards, increased pressure on resources and an insistance on multi-ethnicity instead of integration is the biggest risk to Europs future.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Sixpence on August 19, 2004, 12:34:25 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Lizking
If you think overpopulation in the US is not a problem and a reality, you are mistaken.


Or the world, if this study is true, then Europe are the ones heading in the right direction. We will not see overpopulation in our lifetime, but future generations will. When that point comes, nature will likely be the one to do something about it if we have not.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Glasses on August 20, 2004, 11:58:54 PM
Put Glasses in Europe he'll help increase the population of Europe 10 fold,especially in the Swedish area  :D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 21, 2004, 03:36:39 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Glasses
Put Glasses in Europe he'll help increase the population of Europe 10 fold,especially in the Swedish area  :D


you may be abit overweight, but 10 fold? :D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: leonid on August 21, 2004, 09:27:26 AM
A similar study gives some details on that USA  demographic increase.  By 2050 white protestants will no longer be the majority in America.
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Glasses on August 21, 2004, 09:33:57 AM
I didn't mean it because am overweight or that I'm big sideways ;)
I'd help the Swede females with their infertility :D
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Nilsen on August 21, 2004, 09:38:17 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Glasses
I didn't mean it because am overweight or that I'm big sideways ;)
I'd help the Swede females with their infertility :D


i knew that you silly boy but it was to tempting :)
Title: What is the future for Europe?
Post by: Chortle on August 21, 2004, 11:02:19 AM
Sparks, this should cheer you up a bit.

There were 8,940 applications for asylum in the UK in the first quarter of 2004 (January to March). This was 17 per cent less than the previous quarter and 44 per cent less than first quarter of 2003. 42,315 asylum applications were received in 2003/04, 48 per cent lower than in 2002/03 (80,880).

Source (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=261)

Plus Understanding the decision-making of asylum seekers (http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/hors243.pdf) - Seems the idea of a tolerant, progressive society has more bearing than ££££'s. Kind of ironic really.