Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Toad on August 26, 2004, 10:26:32 PM
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Likely Voters
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/25 Bush 44 Kerry 45
Gallup 8/25 Bush 50 Kerry 47
GWU Battleground 8/17 Bush 47 Kerry 49
Registered Voters
Gallup 8/25 Bush 47 Kerry 48
Los Angeles Times 8/24 Bush 49 Kerry 46
IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/23 Bush 44 Kerry 44
And HERE WE GO into the Republican Convention!
Honestly, I thought Kerry'd be pulling way ahead. Iraq can't be helping Bush, the economy/jobs reports are not thrilling, the market is not skyrocketing, oil prices were just at records.
Just goes to show I better stay out of political forecasting.
67 days to the final poll as of the 27 August.
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Why echange Bush for Kerry when nobody has any idea what Kerry will do or what he stands for? Kerry is a weazel and can't win.
Bush will win in a landslide.
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National polls are completely meaningless.
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Originally posted by Nash
National polls are completely meaningless.
Unless they show Kerry in front, right?
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Don't they?
I guess it depends.
But no...
Lemme put it this way...
If 50,000 Texans decided to suddenly switch to Democrat, or if 50,000 Californians decided to switch to Republican, the look of these national polls would change.
However, Texas would still vote Bush overall, and California would still vote Kerry overall.
So nothing changes.
National polls don't indicate anything.
Keep your eye on Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee etc.
These folks are going to decide your next President.
The vast majority of folks who participate in national polls might as well just go to the beach on election day.
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Go to bed - Im just giving you ****.
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Good idea.
And I congratulate you, your people, and your entire state for, in stark contrast to what some national polls would indicate, voting the right man into office.
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Bush Leads Kerry in 3 Key States (http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/la-082604poll_lat,0,7912861,print.story?coll=ny-top-headlines)
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Originally posted by Nash
Keep your eye on Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee etc.
These folks are going to decide your next President.
Really? How can you say that? Last time, Bush had 271 Electoral votes and Gore 266.
So a total change of 5 votes would have changed the outcome.
(http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/namerica/usstates/electorl.gif)
There's an awful lot of single states that could have created a 5 point swing. How can you say it's just "Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee"?
I hope no registered voter stays home on national polling day. I hope the elegible get off the sofa and get registered if they are not.
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but a fun flash toy to play with ...
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash?coll=la-home-headlines
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Originally posted by Toad
So a total change of 5 votes would have changed the outcome.
But those 5 votes that could change the result wouldn't be coming from California and Texas (for example)... we already know who their votes are going to.
I'm not saying that just one state is going to decide the outcome.
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Originally posted by NUKE
Why echange Bush for Kerry when nobody has any idea what Kerry will do or what he stands for?
because when faced with a choice between a known choice that is so bad it's hard to imagine a worse choice, and a complete unknown, only a person who has a serious fear of change would choose to continue on with the known failure.
although Bush does have a very good chance at re-election. thanks in large part to the same mentality that compels women to stay with a guy, who beats them and drinks the bill money, because she's afraid she won't be able to find anyone better if she leaves him.
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a better example using women would be that women allways vote for democrats. Women and womenly men and big city apartment dwellers.
lazs
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Looks like the Swift Boat Liars for Truth are getting their job done.
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Originally posted by lazs2
a better example using women would be that women allways vote for democrats. Women and womenly men and big city apartment dwellers.
lazs
I hear that from you a lot, while actually, more of the women I know vote republican (or more accurately, most of those that I know are planning to vote republican are women). and most of the men vote democrat
they like the way they feel safer (without actually being safer) when the republicans start talking minimum sentences, and zero tolerance policies, and getting tough on crime.
since they are often the type of women who tend to go more on feeling than actual reason, they never move past that to the logical next questions of where are we going to put the additional inmates, and how will we afford the increased cost of apprehending, bringing to trial, and incarcerating, while at the same time cutting taxes to the wealthy, getting in an extra-curricular war or 2, rebuilding other countries, taking on the role of vigilante to the world, and crapping all over our own economy.
most men I know pay more attention to the bottom line. they've seen how the republicans seem to spend a lot of time talking about some very positive things, but when it comes to actual effort and action, they seem to apply most of that to other areas that tend to screw over mainstream America.
while at the same time the Dems tend to throw a lot of talk behind every fruity new cause that comes down the line, and like the republicans not much happens on these issues that they have so much to say about. but again, when you forget the talk and watch the bottom line- wages go up, bills tend to get paid, jobs are available for those willing to work, the national debt gets paid down, and the over-all quality of life seems to improve for most of us when they are in office.
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sorry apathy but..."women you know" asside...
The facts don't back you up... women, minorities and actors all vote in huge numbers for the security of socialism in democratic candidates.
I think that I would rather pay to keep inmates in prison than to pay for yur "catch and release" program...
men vote for republicans. womenly men and big city sissies and apartment dwellers in penny loafers vote for democrats.
that's just the demograhics of it.
lazs
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These guys ALWAYS vote democrat....
(http://www.theinternetparty.org/images/longshoremen3.jpg)
Not a penny loafer in sight!
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Oh yeah... forgot the socialist union types.
lazs
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Originally posted by midnight Target
Looks like the Swift Boat Liars for Truth are getting their job done.
Like Moveon.org?
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Naw.. the SBLT make Moveon look like a buncha pansies!
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Originally posted by lazs2
sorry apathy but..."women you know" asside...
The facts don't back you up... women, minorities and actors all vote in huge numbers for the security of socialism in democratic candidates.
I think that I would rather pay to keep inmates in prison than to pay for yur "catch and release" program...
men vote for republicans. womenly men and big city sissies and apartment dwellers in penny loafers vote for democrats.
that's just the demograhics of it.
lazs
True. No Soapbox needed.
Karaya
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Originally posted by Toad
Likely Voters
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/25 Bush 44 Kerry 45
Gallup 8/25 Bush 50 Kerry 47
GWU Battleground 8/17 Bush 47 Kerry 49
Registered Voters
Gallup 8/25 Bush 47 Kerry 48
Los Angeles Times 8/24 Bush 49 Kerry 46
IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/23 Bush 44 Kerry 44
And HERE WE GO into the Republican Convention!
Honestly, I thought Kerry'd be pulling way ahead. Iraq can't be helping Bush, the economy/jobs reports are not thrilling, the market is not skyrocketing, oil prices were just at records.
Just goes to show I better stay out of political forecasting.
67 days to the final poll as of the 27 August.
I think this shows that people trust Bush more than Kerry. I mean, what's left but the question of "who do you trust more?"
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Hehe MT, they should, they're Vietnam Vets afterall!
Have you seen that commercial that Crosby and Nash are running.
Talk about conspiracy theories. But it is fun to watch. They look like they're having some fun with it as well.
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Originally posted by Nash
National polls are completely meaningless.
Only when they do not disagree with your viewpoint??
Please tell us in some detail how and why national polls are meaningless.
Thanks
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Originally posted by Stringer
Hehe MT, they should, they're Vietnam Vets afterall!
Have you seen that commercial that Crosby and Nash are running.
Talk about conspiracy theories. But it is fun to watch. They look like they're having some fun with it as well.
No.. But I'm looking forward to it now.
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Originally posted by Rude
Only when they do not disagree with your viewpoint??
Please tell us in some detail how and why national polls are meaningless.
Thanks
What's my viewpoint supposed to be, wrt these poll numbers? I'm not questioning their accuracy.
I already explained how these polls were meaningless. There's nothing controversial about it and I thought it was pretty easy to understand.
But let make take another stab at it.
National polls are as meaningful in predicting an election as the popular vote is in deciding an election. That should be easy enough to grasp, right?
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Polls are a relative indicator of opinion....a snapshot....easily manipulated to support whatever view one might seek.
As to deciding an election, you're right.....hardly foolproof.
BTW......where was your hardon for Bush born from? Socialist upbringing....youth.....econo mic blight or higher education....perhaps a combination of the above?
Just curious....not being mean, so please do not react in that vein.
Thanks
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Originally posted by Rude
BTW......where was your hardon for Bush born from? Socialist upbringing....youth.....econo mic blight or higher education....perhaps a combination of the above?
I've tried to answer this in 4 different ways now... and had to delete each one. They just weren't making sense.
I'm not sure if that question makes any sense, to be honest.
There's something weird about it.
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nash...werent you the one pointing to poll numbers when kerrie had a lead a while back?
lazs
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I'd be very suprised if I quoted a national poll here.
Maybe you're thinking about some state polls or something like that.
Can't remember.