Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Thrawn on September 13, 2004, 04:08:25 PM
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Most of it is below sea level. Ivan (apparently the strongest hurricane every recorded) is backing towards it. I strongly suggest anyone living in around it get the hell out.
Edit: Actually make that anyone on the NE gulf coast.
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Originally posted by Thrawn
Most of it is below sea level. Ivan (apparently the strongest hurricane every recorded) is backing towards it. I strongly suggest anyone living in around it get the hell out.
Edit: Actually make that anyone on the NE gulf coast.
or hole up in the dungeon. i can see it now. a bunch of seriously hot off duty strippers in a cellar bar with you scared for their lives and surrounded by booze. i may have to go buy myself airline ticket before its too late. :)
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Originally posted by Thrawn
Most of it is below sea level. Ivan (apparently the strongest hurricane every recorded) is backing towards it. I strongly suggest anyone living in around it get the hell out.
Edit: Actually make that anyone on the NE gulf coast.
You would? Okay, if Thrawn advises it, then I'm in! :)
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Man! Is the Dungeon still open? I have, well, I ain't saying what, but I have spent a lot of time there.
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Just don't jump up and down on the floor. :)
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"Hurricane Risk for New Orleans
When emergency management officials think about the worst natural disasters that might befall America, San Francisco is always on the list. They say there's a 70 percent chance that a major earthquake will hit that city in the next 30 years and potentially cause thousands of deaths. But they say there's another disaster that could be far worse—and many people don't know about it. The chances that this tragedy will happen are much lower, but the death toll would be staggering. Government officials are trying to figure out if there's any way to prevent it.
Think about the great cities in this country, and one of them will be New Orleans. On a recent evening, a scientist pulls up in the French Quarter. Joe Suhayda takes a plastic rod out of his trunk and he proceeds to show us what could happen the next time a hurricane hits New Orleans.
"OK, this is tool that I have a range rod," explains Suyhayda. "It will show us how high the water would be if we were hit with a Category Five Hurricane."
Which would mean what?
"Twenty feet of water above where we are standing now," says Suyhayda.
Twenty?"
(http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/images/levels2.jpg)
A Category Five Hurricane is the most powerful storm on a scientific scale. Suhayda plants the rod on the sidewalk next to a 200-year-old building that's all wrought iron balconies and faded brick and wooden shutters. Every click marks another foot that the flood would rise up this building.
I can't believe you're still going.
"Yeah, still going," says Suyhayda.
Until a couple months ago, Suhayda ran a prominent research center at Louisiana State University. They've developed the most detailed computer models that anybody's ever used to predict how hurricanes could affect this region. Studies suggest that there's roughly a one in six chance that a killer hurricane will strike New Orleans over the next 50 years.
Suhayda is still extending his stick as he describes what he is doing, "It's well above the second floor, just about to the rooftop."
It's hard to comprehend.
"Yes," agrees Suyahada, "it is really, to think that that much water would occur in this city during a catastrophic storm."
Do you expect this kind of hurricane—this kind of flooding—will hit New Orleans in our lifetime?
"Well I would say the probability is yes," says Suyahada. "In terms of past experience, we've had three storms that were near misses—that could have done at least something close to this."
Basically, the part of New Orleans that most Americans—most people around the world—think is New Orleans, would disappear.
Suyhayda agrees, "It would, that's right."
The rest of the article can be found here.
http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane1.html
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"000
WTNT34 KNHC 132136
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TONIGHT.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH WITH TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN IN THE PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WESTERN CUBA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 912 MB...26.93 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 912 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART"
Bolding is mine.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/081753.shtml?
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W+GIF/132133W.gif)
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Inflammatory
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My memory is muddy what's this river that I'm in
New Orleans is sinking man
And I don't wanna swim.
- Tragically Hip
Good luck all.
:(
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Off topic
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Cat 5 to. this is going to be ugly.
well on the optimistic side CA never got that major earthquake that was predicted.:D
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HOLEY CRAP.....that pic looks like the path goes RIGHT OVER pensicola.
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Inflammatory
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Ahh, progressive "spelling" of BBS names, a sure sign of "disgruntled submission" ;)
Doh, Skuzzy is in lightning mode.
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Originally posted by Torque
Doh, Skuzzy is in lightning mode.
LOL! I swear, I was talking to the wife about dinner, and posting! We ARE having prawns tonight! I swear!:rofl :rofl ;) ;)
Anyway, Thrawn, we've been discussing Ivan for a week now. Where have you been?
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Anyway, Thrawn, we've been discussing Ivan for a week now. Where have you been?
Nope, it's been mentioned from time to time but not discussed, and certainly not with in a north gulf coast landfall situation. And definatly not in regards to New Orleans.
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Okay, you got me Thrawn.
I honestly did not know that "mentioned" and "discussed" were two different things.
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I blame Bush.
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How dare you post about New Orleans and Hurricane Ivan without checking with Rip first, Thrawn. Just what in the hell were you thinking?!
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my parenst live on the beach in Mary Esther..rigth off runway 165 of Eglin AFB
dam...i hope thsoe guys with the gell start spreadn it in the hurricen soon
btw..Ill be there during X-mas this year..need to re visit Pen's musuem..i only had 1 day..when i was there..
Love the Arment' musuem at Hurlbert...Love standing next to Agent Orange Spraying devices:)
btw..man ..everypost i see says .."edited" by Skuzzy..
I miss all the funnies you guys are making..; ( sniff..sniffle
and crp man..skuzzy workn longer days now?
btw any of you need plastic surgery I can get you a discount with my dad in Mary Esther/Ft Walton Destin area..; ) ..
lypo..probbly what you guys need..or maybe breast reduction?
Love
BiGB
xoxo`
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Ivan has past Cuba and has maintained 160 mph winds.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/140553.shtml?
As I imagine, most thought it would lose energy over Cuba, and it did. But it's still a Cat 5. I'm concerned that there is nothing between it and the northern gulf coast, and all that space over warm water to pick up more energy.
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Good luck to our western neighbors in NOLA.
We all gettin' ready for it.
Les
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Predictions right now are it will be downgraded to a Cat 2 whenit hits Mobile Bay.
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I was stationed in Biloxi, it can go there. Just spare P-cola, nice town.
Ironic to if it hits Biloxi, home of the hurrican hunters.
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Originally posted by Goth
Predictions right now are it will be downgraded to a Cat 2 whenit hits Mobile Bay.
Cat 2 storms are fun!!
I have actually been thinking the same thing.. 8)
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No those warm waters are of the gulf will keep it at strength atleast. Cat 2 wont happen imo.
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Last one we had on the gulf coast that I remember sat out there for a few days then blew up to a cat 3 or 4 and launched inland at hi speed. This could get rough.
Duck Bigmax! I think Leslie lives down there as well.
Wondering if Tom Petty will do a Ivan Relief concert after its all over.
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very active weather right now! we have 3 hughe storms,
Ivan who is getting stronger now again, very dangerous.
tropical storm Jeanne ready to be a Hurricane and otw to Puerto Rico.
and hurricane Javier on the east pacifik who can build up to
class 5 in the next 6-12h.
I blame the KYOTO PROTOCOL ! ;)
R
Gh0stFT
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lived there when Camille with 200mph winds went just about the same track as they give Ivan now. 69 I think. NO was fine. Heck it floods with a good rain - makes catching the crawdads easier :)
(http://home.earthlink.net/~houseguru/mar2503/crawdad.jpg)
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LOL, this became liburals versus neocons.