Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Neubob on October 11, 2004, 03:36:09 PM
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I'm not big on political threads, and, I'm also apparently a masochist, so here go all my thoughts on this upcoming election, after reading which, I open myself to flaming from all who read this.
First of all, what I believe to be truer than anything in modern(last ten years) popular elections, is that the candidates have no real convictions. No convictions, I say! Candidates are nothing more than (some more than others) the needs, desires and insecurities of their constituents, personified, wrapped into a nice package and presented as a counterbalance to the needs, insecurities and desires of an opposing demographic. The biggest difference between A and B, is the people to whom they pander. So long as the groups they represent hold different things to be important, A and B will use those things to make each other look rediculous, short-sighted, silly or just plain stupid.
Now, a quick taking of inventory: I respect Kerry's status as a Veteran. Did he run from vietnam? Did he desert his comrades in arms? I don't know. He did more than I did, and thus, I am no longer qualified to judge his actions. Does Bush's lack of a war record speak poorly of his leadership ability? Not at all. U.S. Grant, a Civil War General, is consistently hailed as one of our worst CICs. Lincoln, by contrast, one of our best.
So, it is not on past lives that we must look to, but to something else. Something more situational.
I really don't believe that G. W. Bush is a religious fundamentalist. In fact, I don't believe he's an anything fundamentalist. Yes, he's done just about everything possible to make himself out to be one, but remember, he has to. Just like J.F. Kerry must look like a socialist. The most honest sentiment exchanged between the two men during their debates was the handshake--because they both know, deep down inside, that it's a game they're playing. Whatever animosity they may have shown, or implied towards one another subsequently was nothing more than the animosity, or ridicule one guy would show another after watching him sink an impossible putt, or, conversely, miss one that seemed unmissable.
So, where does this leave us. Well, for me, as a voter, it's quite clear. George W. Bush, as a seeker of a second term, upon election, will forever shed his need to pander to the right. This leaves him open to make decisions that any normal, rational, thinking human being knows to be practical. Do I think he may loosen his grip on Stem Cell research? I do. Do I think he'll be less of a Jesus Freak(pardon the expression) perhaps. Do I think that he'll be more reasonable on the question of abortion? I can only hope. On the same token, Mr. Kerry, a man with whom I'd play golf, drink beer or exchange friendly banter any day of the week, seeks a first term, and thus, will spend his first four years in office doing everything he can to convince and reconvince his constituency that he will be the man to vote for come 2008. 4 years of pandering by a liberal, to a liberal demographic leaves a lot of us out in the rain. By the virtue of this equation alone, I would go with Bush, because I, like many, am interested in my own well being under a new administration. I also happen to fall quite neatly into the category of people to whom he panders, but that's another story.
What's the point of all this? I think it can be summed up pretty easily with: Less emotion, more math. Find out which part of the equation you belong to and you have your answer.
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Hmmm... I thought the math was:
Bush00 + Bush04 = Hillary08.
:D
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Good Speech.
Sandman. If Algore or Kerry can't get elected, what makes you think Hillary could?
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Hillary doesn't stand a chance if Colin Powell runs against her in '08.
:aok
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Originally posted by Lizking
Good Speech.
Sandman. If Algore or Kerry can't get elected, what makes you think Hillary could?
You're asking the wrong guy... I'm just parroting the crap from the Republicans.
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Do I think he may loosen his grip on Stem Cell research?
And what grip would that be?
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You might have it exactly bass-ackwards, there Neubob.
A lame duck Bush is likely to slide well to the right. Even more so since he (presumeably) doesn't have a VP who will be seeking the follow-up.
Kerry, seeking re-election, will have to suppress his radically liberal inclinations and stay toward the center. Particularly if he has a Republican congress to deal with.
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Originally posted by Sandman
Hmmm... I thought the math was:
Bush00 + Bush04 = Hillary08.
:D
I know you're just jokingly paraphrasing certain other members of the forum here, Sandman, but I think Hillary's chances at becoming president are just slightly better than Reagan's chances at a 3rd term.
The first woman president will have to be a moderate republican to capture the swing voters. A liberal woman will get exactly zero percent of the conversvative vote, few if any swing voters and at best, most of the democratic votes. Being of the nature that she is, she'll scare away most everyone besides the radicals.
Originally posted by Samiam
You might have it exactly bass-ackwards, there Neubob.
A lame duck Bush is likely to slide well to the right. Even more so since he (presumeably) doesn't have a VP who will be seeking the follow-up.
Kerry, seeking re-election, will have to suppress his radically liberal inclinations and stay toward the center. Particularly if he has a Republican congress to deal with.
I might well have it bass-ackwards. My conclusion only holds true if you believe that Bush is entering into the election with few if any convictions of his own. If this holds true, then it is only natural for him to become more moderate.
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Lol Sandman, that's the smartest thing you've said yet.
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hillery will get 99% of the womens votes, 99% of the black vote and 50% of the male vote (all the male liberals), also she will have 78% of the french vote and 65% of the canada vote.
( all numbers have a +/- of 5%)
looks like a landslide in 08 if heinz-kerry loses.
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Originally posted by Sandman
Bush00 + Bush04 = Hillary08.
Hillary has a unique problem that most politicians don't have. She virtually has no middle room.
The left absolutely loves her, the right absolutely hates her, and practically every either falls left or right when it comes to her. There just simply isn't very many people left that are undecided about her.
Not good for a presidiental candidate when there are no swing voters to swing.
Originally posted by John9001
hillery will get 99% of the womens votes, 99% of the black vote and 50% of the male vote (all the male liberals), also she will have 78% of the french vote and 65% of the canada vote.
( all numbers have a +/- of 5%)
I disagree.
Women Republicans probably will not vote for Hillary. They find her scary. So only the Democratic women should vote for her.
Blacks already vote predominately Democrat. No difference there.
50% of male vote (male liberals) isn't a change either.
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Originally posted by Neubob
I know you're just jokingly paraphrasing certain other members of the forum here, Sandman, but I think Hillary's chances at becoming president are just slightly better than Reagan's chances at a 3rd term.
Oh, I'm with ya... I'm not sure what the "right" has against her other than half-truths and perceptions. As a politician, she's far too green.
The conservatives have done her a huge favor politically. They have presented Hillary as a threat and something for the right to worry about.
...and for that reason alone, she is.
That said, I don't believe she has an ice cubes chance in hell of getting elected to the Oval (or VP for that matter).
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Ill take that bet.
I take Hillary will not run.
You take Hilary will run....
Saying Hillary will run is a rep tactic that is getting very old. Sad that they are so scared of her..
:D
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Not so scared of Hillary, just scared of the stupidity of the American voter.
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Originally posted by FUNKED1
Not so scared of Hillary, just scared of the stupidity of the American voter.
After Bush I know what you mean.
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Originally posted by Sandman
Oh, I'm with ya... I'm not sure what the "right" has against her other than half-truths and perceptions. As a politician, she's far too green.
The conservatives have done her a huge favor politically. They have presented Hillary as a threat and something for the right to worry about.
...and for that reason alone, she is.
That said, I don't believe she has an ice cubes chance in hell of getting elected to the Oval (or VP for that matter).
Hillary on a Dem ticket would be the best thing possible for the Rep ticket in 08....although Dems are a bit inept at running effective campaigns, they will not support Hillary for an 08 run at the presidency....I might be mistaken though....doubt it, but I have made a few mistakes in my life:)