Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Habu on November 07, 2004, 07:03:30 PM
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The actual survey is here Who voted for Bush (http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13957) . Interesting read
How Americans Voted
Bush owes victory to support from conservative-leaning groups
by Jeffrey M. Jones
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- An analysis of Gallup's final pre-election poll shows that George W. Bush's victory over John Kerry was led by strong support among groups that tend to be politically conservative -- men, whites, Southerners, married voters, churchgoers, Protestants, gun owners, and veterans, as well as his natural Republican supporters. Bush did well in states he won in 2000, and his advantage in those states was larger than the advantage Kerry had in states that Al Gore won in 2000. Generally speaking, Bush's support by subgroup rose slightly in nearly all groups, but this was probably because there were no significant third-party candidates attracting support this year as Ralph Nader did in 2000. But Bush improved on his 2000 performance among conservatives, urban residents, and regular churchgoers beyond what can be attributed to the lack of a significant third-party candidate, while he did less well among younger voters.
The analysis is based on Gallup's final pre-election poll of Oct. 29-31, which showed Bush at 49% and Kerry at 47% among likely voters. Those overall figures and the figures for the subgroups are adjusted to the final two-party candidate vote totals of 51.5% for Bush and 48.5% for Kerry.
Vote by Political Subgroup
Naturally, Bush's strongest groups were Republicans (+90 percentage points over Kerry) and conservatives (+60). Kerry, likewise, had large advantages among Democrats (+86 over Bush) and liberals (+76). Both candidates held the support of the majority of their partisans, with 95% of Republicans voting for Bush and 93% of Democrats voting for Kerry. Independents were slightly more likely to support Kerry (52%) than Bush (48%).
Bush had a 16-percentage point advantage among voters in states he won in 2000 (representing half of all voters), while Kerry had a slightly smaller advantage of 10 points among voters in states Gore won in 2000. Kerry did slightly better than Bush among voters in the so-called showdown states, those in which Gore or Bush won by fewer than six points in 2000.
Vote by Demographic Subgroup
Looking at demographic differences, Bush fared well among gun owners (+30 over Kerry), weekly churchgoers (+26), Protestants (+24), military veterans (+20), married people (+20), non-Hispanic whites (+14), Southerners (+14), and men (+12).
On the other hand, Kerry appealed most to blacks (+86), those residing in union households (+34), unmarried women (+28, and +10 among unmarried men), 18- to 29-year-olds (+20), those who seldom or never attend church (+20), Easterners (+16), and urban residents (+12).
Kerry had a small advantage among women, 52% to 48%, the smallest advantage for a Democratic candidate since 1992. Clinton had an 8-point advantage among women in 1992, 15 points in 1996, and Gore had an 8-point advantage in 2000. The total gender gap, however, was similar to what it was in 1996 and 2000 because Bush did better among men this year than did the Republican candidates in 1996 and 2000.
Bush's Performance in 2000
Overall, Bush improved on his 2000 performance, winning 51% of the popular vote, compared with 48% in 2000. However, that mainly results from the lack of a significant performance by any third-party candidate this year who took votes away from the two major parties, such as Nader did in 2000. (To put it in perspective, Kerry, who lost the popular vote this year, got the same 48% as Gore in 2000, and Gore won the popular vote.) For the most part, Bush's 2004 performances are similar to what they were in 2000, other than the slight increase from the higher major-party vote. However, his gains among conservatives (+9), urban residents (+9), and weekly churchgoers (+7) suggest a real increase in support over 2000, while his seven-point drop in support among younger voters and six-point drop among rural residents indicates a significant decrease in support compared with 2000.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1.573 likely voters, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 29-31, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
The results are adjusted to reflect the overall national popular two-party vote.
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JEB 2008!
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the anti-christ bush won because all the voteing machines were rigged to change kerry votes to bush votes, and the neo-cons are secretly implanting computer chips in us, and the illuminanti blunderburger oil barons are taking over the world.
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probly every one of the 4 million NRA voters got off their butts and voted for Bush. the "gun owners" that voted for kerrie simply were conned by his lying about his position on firearms.
And.. as I told people in the beggining... the female vote does not go to ugly guys.
and... if a candidate can be proven to be a liberal...he loses.
so... it was about guns, looks and liberalism.
kerrie got the short end of the stick on all of em.
lazs
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i did!
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I voted twice how many times did you all vote?
Just kidding....
IKON
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me too:D
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The majority of the close inner circle of friends I hang with that voted for Bush are neither religious or gun owners. And two co-workers who voted Bush that I speak with "at the water fountain" on a regular basis are black. Go figure.
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I personally know three people that voted for Bush. Not only are they Mexican, they are also illegals.
-SW
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If you actually go to the survey page they list all the different groups and how they voted. I could not cut and past that part.
It is interesting to see that my opinion (conservative and right wing but supported Kerry) is very small. I would have thought there were more people that thought that way.
I support a strong military and even the fight in Iraq but I thought Bush was the wrong man to lead the country at this time.
Politics does not seem to attract the best and brightest.
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Originally posted by AKS\/\/ulfe
I personally know three people that voted for Bush. Not only are they Mexican, they are also illegals.
-SW
^^ Liar liar pants on fire.
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Originally posted by Habu
Politics does not seem to attract the best and brightest.
The last 4 election choices were pathetic. I blame the 60's. Peace, love dope, maaaaan!
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did they have a section on.. people who claim to be conservative but believe everything howard stern or michelle moore tells em?
lazs
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I did not support Bush because I think he is not articulate and intelligent enough for the job of leader of the free world. He seems unable to support his friends and tends to leave world leaders who support him politically damaged. An effective president would be able to make it politically advantageous to support his policys.
However I believe Stern has some legitmate concerns regarding FCC policy. I also believe stem cell research is very important and banning it due to religious reasons is very scary.
In the markets where Stern is big he had an impact. But the election is over and it is all a moot point.
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I voted for Bush for the simple fact that I like shooting my handgun. I didn't waste a vote "voting for the lesser of two evils".
Karaya
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Habu I don't think he was banning stem cell research I think he just said that the Govt. shouldn't pay for it.
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Look at the last 3 columns (especially the last one) in the following link. This guy makes some pretty good observations IMO.
http://www.reviewjournal.com/columnists/suprynowicz.html
Hooligan
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According to the New York times...
These segments of the population were won by:
No High School Education - Kerry
High School Education - Bush
Some College - Bush
College Degree - Bush
Graduate Degree - Kerry
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Originally posted by john9001
the anti-christ bush won because all the voteing machines were rigged to change kerry votes to bush votes, and the neo-cons are secretly implanting computer chips in us, and the illuminanti blunderburger oil barons are taking over the world.
You either listen to too much Art Bell / George Noory or You need some serious time on the couch. And yes I voted for BUSH!
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You have to hand it to the Republicans they sure know their demography far better, they also package and sell their product far better than the Democrats.
If the Dems evar want to win they need talent like Rove and Cheney pulling the strings.
That said, this is probably the best thing that will ever happen to Kerry's political career, not inheriting the situtation in Iraq/Iran/NK and the deficit. I figure he has a somewhat hidden inner smile happening now.
The only crappy outcome, that ghey pork barrel missile defence program that they are hinting at us to spend dough on.
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Originally posted by Torque
You have to hand it to the Republicans they sure know their demography far better, they also package and sell their product far better than the Democrats.
If the Dems evar want to win they need talent like Rove and Cheney pulling the strings.
They need to stop embracing the liberal agenda and get back to working for the people like their party did in the 40's,50's and early 60's.
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Originally posted by Torque
You have to hand it to the Republicans they sure know their demography far better, they also package and sell their product far better than the Democrats.
I believe this is called STRATEGERY :lol
Just Kidding - Bottom line the general population in this country is not as stupid as the democratic liberals think they are. Another factor is that the media is no longer controlled entirely by the liberal elite. Zel Millers speech at the RNC summed it up - Its about time - Thank God.
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I really would have liked to vote for Bush and certainly would have if he hadn't gone too conservative on social issues during the campaign IMO.
The one thing I will say is that although I do not agree with many of his very conservative policies, during the (3rd?) debate when there was a question regarding abortion, Bush's answer actually sounded like it came from his heart while Kerry's sounded like a politic answer aimed at getting more votes.
Guess that didn't work out for him after all.
Hopefully now that it's all over and Bush has won, he will move a bit more towards the center. That's probably wishful thinking, but who knows?