Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: eagl on February 26, 2005, 01:31:11 PM
-
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050226/economy_1.html
I blame President Bush.
-
"Statistics Canada corrected a $1.4 billion error in underestimating U.S. exports to Canada during November, and later data also showed the U.S. trade deficit for December narrowed more than had been anticipated. "
The US trade deficit increased by over $121 billion dollars, from $495 billion to $617 billion, an increase fo 24%. I'm not sure how meaningful that $1.4 billion is.
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/annual.html
-
Originally posted by eagl
I blame President Bush.
LOL
dago
-
as long as the euros think bush is an idiot we have them by their ballsacks.
-
This is seriously bad news. This part is REALLY bad....
Despite the fourth-quarter revision, there was no change in the government's calculation that GDP grew 4.4 percent in 2004, ahead of a 3 percent increase in 2003 and the strongest for any year since 1999, when it expanded 4.5 percent.
Man the lifeboats.. she's a-going down.
-
Ok... err.... "I blame Bush" eh? Think of one thing, NICE WAY TO START BS FIGHTS ON THE BBS! Wow... oh i forgot. If you don't like Bush, "You have your right to express your thoughts" bs.
-
Airwolf,
Gotcha ;)
It's a good idea to at least skim the article and the other posts before going off...
-
Originally posted by AirWölf
Ok... err.... "I blame Bush" eh? Think of one thing, NICE WAY TO START BS FIGHTS ON THE BBS! Wow... oh i forgot. If you don't like Bush, "You have your right to express your thoughts" bs.
Heh. Bud, you're totally outclassed here.
-
One thing that suprises me is how weak the US dollar is at the moment. Even the Kiwi dollar reached a high the other day of almost .80 to the dollar.
Not so great for the exporters but good for when shopping on Amazon. Wonder how it's effecting foreign investment in the US though with more turning to the Euro?
...-Gixer
-
Originally posted by eagl
Airwolf,
Gotcha ;)
It's a good idea to at least skim the article and the other posts before going off...
Yeah, even I read the article and got the joke. :)
dago
-
and later data also showed the U.S. trade deficit for December narrowed more than had been anticipated
The bad news just doesn't stop. The boilers are gonna blow!
-
I might have to help the US export a bit by buying an american car now that they're dirt cheap.
To bad the new cadillac models seem to have some quality issues..
-
A certain phrase that was very popular a few months ago keeps running through my mind. I believe it was: This is the worst economy in 70 years!
-
i was here
-
Originally posted by Yeager
as long as the euros think bush is an idiot we have them by their ballsacks.
You got that right.
Bush isnt my favorite person ,and he doesnt come off well alot of times but its obvious the man is far from stupid.
A great many people think he is and because of this they underestimate him and that turns out to be their undoing.
Hows that saying go?
"dumb like a fox"
-
Does the huge debt matter?
http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
-
Originally posted by Raider179
Does the huge debt matter?
http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
I like the way it goes all the way to 2010 when we've just barely entered 2005.
Debt isnt unusual. Most people have dept.
Im sure someone will be along who cant explain this a whole lot better then I
-
Originally posted by Raider179
Does the huge debt matter?
http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
Pshawww:
Not originally posted anywhere here
A Solution to the National Debt
Written by Doc Farmer
Wednesday, July 07, 2004
At this writing, the National Debt (a debt so big that it has to be capitalized) stands at $7,259,602,983,923.51.
Seven Trillion Dollars.
Those three little words, and that bloody humongous amount, are enough to strike terror into anyone’s heart. As well it should. Heck, couples file bankruptcy when their credit cards max out. Men and women jump out of buildings when their stock portfolios make a loud flushing noise. Now, imagine a debt where every American child born is automatically $24,651.05 in the red. The slap on the rump from the doctor is a minor inconvenience compared to that.
Well, that’s the theory. That’s the story everybody is told. ''We need more taxes,'' the politicians cry, ''to cover the National Debt!'' ''Our debt will be paid by our children’s children’s children’s children if we don’t raise taxes now.''
Well, politicians love to raise taxes anyway. They’ll raise taxes at the drop of a Spotted Owl. If politicians don’t get enough money in taxes, they just add more money to the National Debt. Then demand more taxes to pay for spendthrift and wasteful habits of those who stack the re-election deck in the favor of the incumbents. These days the only chance of being ousted from the House or Senate is to be caught in bed, on videotape, with three hookers, five rocks of crack cocaine, a Cub Scout troop, a goat with scrofula, Hitler's corpse, and Janet Reno in a thong.
The Washington Wastrels want to make you pay for their greed.
The National Debt is only part of the story, however. The other part of the story, the part the politicians don’t want you to hear, provides the immediate solution to the problem. Sadly, though, the politicians will never allow such a remedy. Because it will show them to be liars. It will take away much, indeed most, of their power. It will get them fired from their soft, cushy jobs, and never allowed to serve in public office again.
Sounds like a good-enough reason right there to tell everybody.
Y’see, debt is only one half of the balance sheet. Now, I’m not an accountant, and I don’t understand macroeconomic theory. But I do know that if you’ve got debts (liabilities) you should also have assets. Cash on hand, property, buildings, cars, investments, money in banks, precious metals, works of art, that sort of thing. And the Federal Government has assets. Just over $17 trillion in assets.
If you have more assets than liabilities, you’re fine. If you have more liabilities than assets, you’re in trouble.
Assets: $17,000,000,000,000
Debt: $ 7,000,000,000,000
Balance $10,000,000,000,000
So, we’re actually $10 trillion ahead of the game, even if all of the National Debt is paid off today. We’re not bankrupt. Not anywhere near it. That’s the dirty little secret of your government.
Here’s the bigger deal. The National Debt has an easy solution. One that most people, most businesses would turn to if they were paying off their fiscal liabilities. You sell off some of your assets, and pay your debts. The same thing can be done here.
The Government of the United States of America is the largest landowner in the country. The government owns all of the national parks, which comprise several million acres. It own tons of buildings, fleets of cars and trucks, fleets of aircraft (non-military ones), plus all the desks, computers, garbage cans, telephones, etc. Plus, there’s all the U.S. money invested in foreign banks all around the world. Then there are all of the unnecessary (from a Constitutional standpoint, anyway) government agencies.
So, it’s time to do some serious debt realignment. Time to sell off stuff that America can no longer afford. Like most of the Federal Government. Don’t believe me? Read the Constitution. In it, the Federal Government was supposed to be of limited size and scope. It only really authorizes the following institutions and agencies (tell me what I’ve missed, and give proof):
* Presidency (and associated support departments)
* Congress (and associated support departments)
* Judiciary (and associated support departments)
* Military/National Defense
* Department of Commerce
* U.S. Mint
* National Institute of Standards and Technology
* Library of Congress
* Post Office
* Copyright Office
* Patent Office
* State Department (Embassy/Consular offices)
* Immigration and Naturalization (or a functional facsimile thereof)
* Federal Prison System
You’ll note that the IRS is absent from the list above. Mostly because the IRS is a product of the 16th Amendment, which was fraudulently added to the U.S. Constitution. But that’s a discussion for another day. So here are some quick things that the Federal Government can do to pay off the National Debt, yet still keep the country functional:
* Closing down all federal agencies not sanctioned by the Constitution, and selling off the assets
* Selling back Federal (non park) land for private ownership
* A REALLY big bake sale at the Pentagon.
* Selling the gold bullion reserves for ready cash
* Buying back the gold bullion reserves when the price of gold crashes
* Returning to the gold standard again, just to honk off all the speculators
* Personally, I like the bake sale idea the best!
Now, if you immediately liquidated $7 trillion of assets, especially those in banking institutions across the globe, there’d be financial chaos that would cause hardship throughout the world. It’d come back to bite America on the rump and cause us major problems. So, if you did this in simple stages over a ten year period, you’d liquidate $700 billion every year. As long as you didn’t liquidate any assets belonging to the list of constitutionally authorized departments listed above, no problem. If you want to sell off the assets of the Department of Education, Department of Heath and Human Services, National Endowment for the Arts, etc., be my guest. In fact, I insist!
I can hear all the lib/dem/soc/commies fainting, screaming, and gnashing teeth. Ah, what a glorious noise.
If you’re wondering about all those hundreds of thousands of newly unemployed people fired from the Federal Government, fear not. Those unemployed will find jobs. Why am I so confident? Well, for one thing, the National Debt will be gone. That will free up a lot of the drain on businesses, who have to waste billions of dollars every year filling out idiotic forms, performing unnecessary tasks, or forking over taxes to pay for all those salaries of the people who receive the idiotic forms or demand the unnecessary tasks. That money, now freed up, will not go into the money of fat cat white ''fascists,'' no matter what the lib/dem/soc/commies will shrilly declare. It will go into investment in new factories, new products, research and development. It will create jobs.
At long last, you’ll be able to go to sleep at night and not worry that your great-great-great grandchildren will be up to their umbilical cords in debt.
That’s worth selling off all that unnecessary Federal detritus in the first place.
-
Originally posted by Toad
This is seriously bad news. This part is REALLY bad....
Toad, you take out a loan, and count the amount of cash you have. Are you really richer? You spend 2/3 of the loan on consumer goods, are you wealthier?
Between your federal govenment and trade deficit. The US went over $1.2 TRILLION futher in debt last year alone.
-
Tumour, that's the US federal government debt. The US owes, including it's federal government debt, over $21 trillion dollars.
-
Originally posted by Maverick
A certain phrase that was very popular a few months ago keeps running through my mind. I believe it was: This is the worst economy in 70 years!
Dont forget "worse job loss since hoover" While watching the news you couldev done a pretty good shot drinking game to that before the election.
-
Originally posted by Thrawn
Tumour, that's the US federal government debt. The US owes, including it's federal government debt, over $21 trillion dollars.
It wasn't meant to be taken seriously.
But.... And? There's nothing I can do about it. I'll worry about MY debt (which will be $0 in the next couple months), and let the Govt worry about the big picture. I've got far more to worry about than the national debt, and I have faith in my Govt, and the people who put it/them there.
-
Yeah, the economy is growing better than it has in years and the trade gap is narrowing.
This is the worst possible news.
Well maybe not, eh Thrawn?
The debt could be growing like it is now, the economy could be getting worse and the trade gap could be getting wider.
But then... it's not that bad yet, is it?
-
The news is so bad, I must lighten the depression with a joke:
A woman was walking through County Cork one afternoon, when she happened accross her local vicar.
"Ah, Mrs. Flanagan, is it"?
"Aye"
"And Didn't I marry you a while back"?
"Aye, you did Vicar."
"And would ye be having any wee ones, Mrs. Flanagan"?
"No, not as yet, Vicar."
"Well, I'll be going to the Vatcian soon to study. I shall light a candle and pray for ye, and yer husband."
Several years later, Mrs. Flanagan was walking thought town, when she happened upon the the vicar....
"Aye, would it be Mrs. Flanagan"?
"Aye, vicar, tis I."
"Did ye start yer family with wee ones as yet"
"Aye, vicar, we have two daughters, a son who is three, and triplets who are almost two."
"Aye, thats great! And yer husband, how is the lad"?
"Aye, he is traveling now."
"On business"?
"No, he went to the Vatican to blow out yer butterin' candle"
-
Originally posted by Thrawn
Toad, you take out a loan,
BTW, I'm not supposed to tell you this..but... hey, you're a friend.
You borrow all the money a bank has and you count the cash. You spend almost all of it on great women, good whiskey and good times. The rest you just waste.
When the bank comes for the money, you tell them you're bankrupt and they're screwed.
Who is the worse off, you or the bank?
See... after we borrow ALL the money in the world, we'll default. You guys will all be broke. We'll be broke too, but we'll have great memories.
-
Originally posted by Tumor
It wasn't meant to be taken seriously.
But.... And? There's nothing I can do about it. I'll worry about MY debt (which will be $0 in the next couple months), and let the Govt worry about the big picture. I've got far more to worry about than the national debt, and I have faith in my Govt, and the people who put it/them there.
You're right, there's nothing you can do as an individual to fix the over problem. But you can protect youself (and family if you have one) from the repercussions. I wonder how many people had faith that the government would let something like the great depression happen?
Toad,
BTW, I'm not supposed to tell you this..but... hey, you're a friend.
You borrow all the money a bank has and you count the cash. You spend almost all of it on great women, good whiskey and good times. The rest you just waste.
When the bank comes for the money, you tell them you're bankrupt and they're screwed.
Who is the worse off, you or the bank?
It depends on how much you are borrowing from how many banks.
See... after we borrow ALL the money in the world, we'll default. You guys will all be broke. We'll be broke too, but we'll have great memories.
And a wonderful legacy to leave the proceeding generations.
Yeah, the economy is growing better than it has in years
The economy appears to be growing better because the US is going further into debt to fund the growth.
and the trade gap is narrowing.
Great the trade gap narrowed in Dec, before the entire year it went grew by %24. The gap did narrow in Dec compared to Nov of 2004. But still was over $10 billion bigger than Dec of 2003.
Hey, in July of 2004 the trade deficit dropped $5 billion, but it went right back up.
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/gandsbal.txt
Where do you think the deficit is trending, up or down? If you think it will continue to go down, why?
-
Zoom back out and look at the economics over the last 50 years.
Just how much worse is it than it has been before? Some? Double? Triple? 50x?
-
Originally posted by Toad
Zoom back out and look at the economics over the last 50 years.
Just how much worse is it than it has been before? Some? Double? Triple? 50x?
Geez, I don't know I would have to have more numbers for those years.
During those fifty years has the US debt ever been more than double it's total GDP (which is inflated by imports already)?
We can certainly tell when the slide started though.
-
You'll recall we've pretty much had this discussion before.
When you see it's not as bad as it has been, you must then tell me that this doesn't really tell the whole story. ;)
(http://zfacts.com/metaPage/lib/federal-debt-GDP.gif)
-
BTW, I'm certainly not saying it's good.
OTOH, I'm not quite ready to throw myself into the firery pit over it either.
There's lots going on now that's costing us huge amounts. Some of these things will taper off.
-
Toad, that graph doesn't take into account trade debt. The start is also coming of the US economy being in a total war situation.
"OTOH, I'm not quite ready to throw myself into the firery pit over it either. "
Why would you anyway. You have a house (bought and paid for I imagine), some firearms to protect it and harvest meat. I would even bet you have enough land to plant some vegetibles if necessary. What more do you need?
-
Sorry if I dont understand economics that well but how can our economy be getting better but our debts get larger? Seems if it was getting better the debt would get smaller not bigger.
-
Originally posted by Siaf__csf
I might have to help the US export a bit by buying an american car now that they're dirt cheap.
To bad the new cadillac models seem to have some quality issues..
The new cadys are pretty nice. Dirt cheap in Europe? The 2005 vette runs about 40 something thousand $ in the US. Here in Germany it's starts at 61 thousand something €.
Ya, pump up them prices. Wouldn't want to see to many US cars on the road here.
-
Originally posted by Raider179
Sorry if I dont understand economics that well but how can our economy be getting better but our debts get larger? Seems if it was getting better the debt would get smaller not bigger.
The most popular way of measuring economic growth (Gross Domestic Profuct or GDP) is faulty.
GDP = consumer spending (this also includes government spending) + investment (this also includes government investment) + exports - imports
So if the government spent more money, and everything else stayed the same there would be an increase in GDP.
And check out imports, they are subtracted in the equation. What you don't see is that when the comsumers buy them they buy them at a marked up price. So again the GDP goes up because marked up consumer spending would be up.
It's a screwy system that just doesn't effectively take government debt, or trade debt into account. Spending money never made anyone richer, nor does it make countries richer and that's why I don't think consumer spending should be included. Investing makes people and money richer.
-
Seems to be another case of my accountant is better than yours. lol Either side can make the numbers reflect what they want.
-
Well Thrawn, should we be pleased that the economy is reported as growing and the trade gap narrowing or should we be ticked and hope that the economy stops growing and the trade gap widens?
See my point?
None of this control this stuff and this news is somewhat better than it has been and could there could have been worse news.
-
The US economy isn't too bad right now. The debt is sustainable. The issues that need to be addressed for the next generation aren't being addressed yet, though. The next generation will see an aging population (2 people over 60 for every child) and that means a different tax structure. Substantially higher taxes on the working to support the non-working, high medical cost seniors.
Consumer debt, for the most part, is being financed by China and Japan. They are the ones buying your mortgages (Your bank sells your mortages to someone else) and US bonds.That let's Americans buy and charge more goods made in China and Japan, and the profits go back to Asia.
All economics works great when there is population expansion and taxpayer base expansion. It never looks good when you age a population and reduce the working base.
It's quite natural to think things are great now, but the past is never an indicator of the future in economics. Never. There are too many different factors at any one point in time.
The big, scary bugaboo about the future is about the 2007-2010 time frame. That is what Iraq is all about. It's a pre-emptive move to try to avert the biggest threat to the American economy that is squarely staring everyone in the face. It's soooooo scary ( :eek: ) we don't want to talk about it.
-
I blame NAFTA.
dago
-
Monk yeah they're dirt cheap in comparison to what they used to be. The drop of the currency did that.
Naturally all the taxes etc. are going to keep the price nearly double compared to what americans pay for them. Still, cheaper is cheaper if you want one.
-
Originally posted by Toad
Well Thrawn, should we be pleased that the economy is reported as growing and the trade gap narrowing or should we be ticked and hope that the economy stops growing and the trade gap widens?
See my point?
Yeah, fair enough.
-
Originally posted by Thrawn
You're right, there's nothing you can do as an individual to fix the over problem. But you can protect youself (and family if you have one) from the repercussions.
And do what?
I wonder how many people had faith that the government would let something like the great depression happen?
I really don't see how that makes a difference, but FWIW, I'm enlisted in the military, it's not like I'd be out a fortune.
My Grandfather remembers the Great Depression.. Actually, I should say he remembers the time frame. He's got a great line: "We didn't notice the Great Depression, we were already poor."
-
Hey Rolex,
I was waiting for your further detail on what you were hinting was the underlying reason for Iraq.
Did you ever start a seperate thread on that, I'm very interested in reading your thoughts on that.
-
Originally posted by Rolex
The US economy isn't too bad right now. The debt is sustainable. The issues that need to be addressed for the next generation aren't being addressed yet, though. The next generation will see an aging population (2 people over 60 for every child) and that means a different tax structure. Substantially higher taxes on the working to support the non-working, high medical cost seniors.
Consumer debt, for the most part, is being financed by China and Japan. They are the ones buying your mortgages (Your bank sells your mortages to someone else) and US bonds.That let's Americans buy and charge more goods made in China and Japan, and the profits go back to Asia.
All economics works great when there is population expansion and taxpayer base expansion. It never looks good when you age a population and reduce the working base.
It's quite natural to think things are great now, but the past is never an indicator of the future in economics. Never. There are too many different factors at any one point in time.
The big, scary bugaboo about the future is about the 2007-2010 time frame. That is what Iraq is all about. It's a pre-emptive move to try to avert the biggest threat to the American economy that is squarely staring everyone in the face. It's soooooo scary ( :eek: ) we don't want to talk about it.
and don't forget the threat on the homefront.
The dreaded baby boombers. These guys are going to start retiring in droves soon and the ones that hold skills of a highly technical nature do not have many replacements readily available.
I remember when I was interviewing for an FAA job I was told the RADAR crew I'd be working with were almost all twice my age and 3/4 of them were retiring in the next 10 years.
I wish I still had it but there was a good article written about the CEO of monster.com about three years ago. He wared that in about 2012 there's going to be a skilled labor shortage that will make the dot com bubble look like a temp agency.
-
Stringer: It isn't easy to explain in just a few paragraphs. It isn't that sophisticated, but several things have to brought together into one picture. I'll put something up and link to it in a few days. I won't take sides whether the action is right or wrong, just show what information was used to make the snapshot of time 5-10 years forward.
I think Harry Truman's words 50 years ago are perfectly suited to today:
"I really look with commiseration over the great body of my fellow citizens who, reading newspapers, live and die in the belief that they have known something of what has been passing in their time."
-
Originally posted by Tumor
And do what?
Depends on ones circumstances.
I really don't see how that makes a difference, but FWIW, I'm enlisted in the military, it's not like I'd be out a fortune.
Well, I think being in the military is great start, it's part of the reason I tried to go that route myself recently. If worse comes to worse the last thing a government is going to get rid of it's military.
If one has the means they can invest in things that will hold it's value even if the USD loses it's value. Such as an education. I'm not talking about degrees or diploma's in business admin, or humanities. But trades that have practical applications. If and when the USD falls drastically the US won't be able to procured the manufactured goods it's been getting from other countries. Manufacturing will increase greatly in the US when that happens over the long term. A crisis is bad for majority of people, but it's also a great opportunity for those that prepare.
You can also help insult yourself and your family is to have some "hard currency". Gold, silver, anything with inherant value that you can hold in your hand.
First thing I would do if possible is get the heck out of an urban environment. Any financial crisis of this scale is going to hurt urban areas the most.
Food shouldn't be a problem the US makes a ton of the stuff, so does Canada for that matter. One thing I'm really not sure about would be the fuel situation in the US. Owning property with a tree stand would be nice. And of course firearms to defend your stuff. A well would be nice as well.
My Grandfather remembers the Great Depression.. Actually, I should say he remembers the time frame. He's got a great line: "We didn't notice the Great Depression, we were already poor."
Indeed, they didn't have as far to fall back then. But American's have a much higher standard of living. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if those feeling the pinch don't lobby government to have them raise taxes so they can try and maintain it.
The US government will have a choice to make if and when this happens. Massive socialism, or massive capitalism. Most I imagine will want the government to go more socialist, which unfortunately would make the situation worses.
-
Originally posted by Thrawn
And I wouldn't be surprised at all if those feeling the pinch don't lobby government to have them raise taxes so they can try and maintain it.
I read your entire post and mostly agree with you (even about the deer stand and gold thing) but then I came to this line.
Why in the hell in times of economic tribulation would ANY govt RAISE taxes????????????
The only thing taxing somone they don't have does is make somone more poor! It just astounds me how some liberals think sometimes.
A big govt is a burden on the people as much as economic down times.
-
Thanks Rolex, I look forward to it.
-
Originally posted by Gunslinger
Why in the hell in times of economic tribulation would ANY govt RAISE taxes????????????
To get re-elected and because governments already think they know how to "fix" the economy.
The only thing taxing somone they don't have does is make somone more poor! It just astounds me how some liberals think sometimes.
I know that and you know that but western governments don't seem to.
-
"Dollar Under Fire from All Sides
Thu Mar 10, 2005 02:32 PM ET
By Jamie McGeever and Nick Olivari
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar extended its slide against most currencies on Thursday on concerns over global central bank reserve diversification, a widening U.S. trade deficit and this week's dive in bond prices.
Having slumped to multi-month lows against its major counterparts on Wednesday, the dollar suffered another blow on Thursday after Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told parliament that, generally speaking, diversity in foreign exchange reserves was a good thing.
The Ministry of Finance, which manages the world's largest foreign reserve holding of $840.6 billion, quickly clarified that it has no plans to shift funds out of the dollars.
"Although MoF quickly suggested that they had no plans to change now, the suspicion lingers that more Asian central bank diversifiers are to appear," wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in a research note on Thursday.
But the specter of diversification was raised again, putting pressure on the dollar again, much as had happened after South Korea's central bank mentioned the subject in a report last month.
Midafternoon in New York, the euro was up 0.4 percent at $1.3432 . The dollar was down 0.5 percent at 1.1528 Swiss francs . Against the Canadian dollar the U.S. dollar is buying C$1.2026, after a 0.3 percent decline.
The dollar was little changed to slightly higher against the yen at 104.06 yen , while sterling also little changed at $1.9231 .
The yen came under some selling pressure after weak Japanese core machinery orders. The euro rose to 140.00 yen earlier in the session for the first time this year.
Sterling managed to take the Bank of England's decision to kept interest rates unchanged at 4.75 percent largely in its stride.
"The 'diversification' word really spooked the market ... but the bond market selloff is weighing on the dollar big time," said Samarjit Shankar, director of global strategy at Mellon Bank in Boston. "The bond market is really adding that extra piece of weight on the dollar right now."
TREASURIES WEIGH
The price of U.S. Treasuries have fallen steeply this week, pushing the yield on the 10-year note up to 4.57 percent overnight (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) , its highest level since July last year.
Though now down at around 4.48 percent on Thursday,, they have broken convincingly through key technical levels that have been intact for several months.
Thursday, a new auction attracted average demand with indirect bidders, including investors and foreign central banks, picking up 11 percent of the issue. That compares with 29 percent in the original sale last month but better than the 10 percent seen at the last reopening.
The rise in bond yields is sometimes seen as a supportive factor for a currency, as it offers investors a higher rate of return relative to other fixed income markets.
But not in this instance.
Both the diversification and bond weakness themes aren't constructive for the dollar, say UBS currency analysts.
"The markets fear that dollar selling by Asian central banks plus less buying of US Treasuries will cause higher U.S. interest rates and lower capital inflows, to the detriment of the dollar globally," they wrote in a research note on Thursday.
"We also suggest investors need to watch very carefully the sharp sell-off in U.S. bond markets generally," they added.
TRADE DATA AHEAD
The massive U.S. current account deficit hasn't been particularly good for the dollar either in recent years, and a reminder of this may come on Friday morning when the Commerce Department releases January's trade data.
The figures are expected to show a deficit of $56.5 billion, slightly wider than the previous month and what would be the second widest on record.
Data released on Thursday from two of the U.S.'s biggest trading partners suggest its deficit won't be narrowing significantly any time soon.
Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, appears to be coping with a strong currency, as it posted a trade surplus of 12.9 billion euros in January on record exports. China posted a surplus of $11 billion in the first two months of the year.
Elsewhere, U.S. weekly jobless claims, which rose an unexpectedly high 17,00 last week, kept the dollar under pressure too, analysts said. Economists had expected no change."
http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=7869060
-
So now foreign goods and services will be more expensive in the states? And US goods and service will be cheaper in the global market?
It may well be cheaper to make things in the US?
So maybe this will reduce the trade deficit and spur hiring in the States?
Or is it the end of the world and I should go to Vegas, spend it all and then end it all?
-
Originally posted by Toad
So now foreign goods and services will be more expensive in the states? And US goods and service will be cheaper in the global market?
It may well be cheaper to make things in the US?
So maybe this will reduce the trade deficit and spur hiring in the States?
Or is it the end of the world and I should go to Vegas, spend it all and then end it all?
A little cheaper but it doesn't increase any overseas demand for US goods and services and certainly not enough to spark domestic manufacturing of currently imported goods.
The trade deficit will not likely decline due to increased oil costs. A small burp in hiring is more likely to occur from the short-term tax benefit offered to repatriate overseas profits, but most companies are looking to reduce debt with the windfall, not invest.
It isn't the end of the world, but Vegas would still be happy if you spent it all there. :)
-
So you don't think the across the board increase in the price of foreign goods in the US will generate much change?
And the across the board lowering of the price of US goods in the global market won't make our goods more marketable?
How will this affect the Boeing/Airbus comparisons, for instance?
-
I read just the other day that German companies like Crysler are deciding to move production to the US as a result.
-
That's correct, Toad. I don't there will be much net effect. Transportation costs are affected by higher oil costs and the reduction of the US$ through the past year hasn't yielded any improvement in the trade deficit. Companies tend to find greater efficiencies to offset currency fluctuations and profits aren't always repatriated or exchanged quickly.
I don't consider myself knowledgeable about the aircraft industry in particular, but I suspect that politics, discounting/financing nuances of the industry and total operating costs of comparable aircraft would be greater factors than current currency valuation.
-
So if there's no net effect.... not much is going to change, eh?
-
That's pretty much my outlook for the next year or so. There are plenty of people and economists out there who will write columns of impending doom because they think that's their job.
So, yeah, about the same for a year or so, then some trends will converge and some changes will be in the wind.
-
So what do you do that leads you to read these trends and portents accurately? Just curious.
-
Originally posted by Toad
So now foreign goods and services will be more expensive in the states? And US goods and service will be cheaper in the global market?
It may well be cheaper to make things in the US?
So maybe this will reduce the trade deficit and spur hiring in the States?
One would think, but the USD has lost about 30% of it's value in the past six years, yet the trade deficit has grown incredibly.
Or is it the end of the world and I should go to Vegas, spend it all and then end it all?
I'm not advocating panic, I'm advocating preparation.
-
Originally posted by Thrawn
I'm not advocating panic, I'm advocating preparation.
I've got the kids out back diggin a hole for the bunker already. Now once I find my tin foil hat I'll be good to go :D
-
Oh, I'm not always right and claim no psychic abilities. As you can see, I do hedge with language because I'm over 50. Before starting my own consulting firm, I spent a decade as a board-level advisor to a few of the largest companies in Japan on global marketing, manufacturing expansion, subsidiary establishment in Europe, Asia and America, risk management, etc.
I apologize Toad, but my current financial/economic advisory work and clients require and expect discretion, but it is on a global scale.
-
Ah, but you do this crystal ball stuff for a living then?
Not like us amateur stock players? ;)
-
The sky is falling the sky is falling, but my investments are gaining value! :D
-
For some strange reason, they keep paying me.
And as long as you're making money, you're not an amateur. :cool: It's a hobby when you lose money.
-
Originally posted by Toad
And the across the board lowering of the price of US goods in the global market won't make our goods more marketable?
You guys still make stuff?
-
I wasn't an amateur last year then, nor in January. In February I became an amateur again and in March it's going to be touch and go. ;)
Nash, of COURSE we make stuff here! We bolt cars together for the Japanese and German companies!