Aces High Bulletin Board

General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Replicant on August 02, 2005, 01:51:19 PM

Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Replicant on August 02, 2005, 01:51:19 PM
BBC article (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4738175.stm) on Iran's threats to re-start the process of enriching uranium.

What you all think?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 02, 2005, 02:08:22 PM
Depends on whether this is true.

A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/01/AR2005080101453_pf.html

If its 10 then lets finish in Iraq and let our boys rest for a couple years. If it's 5, give Isreal the thumbs up to take care of business.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Monk on August 02, 2005, 02:08:36 PM
The talks have always been a stall tactic.  This was Iran's agenda from the git go.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Gunthr on August 02, 2005, 03:18:22 PM
We're going to find out more in September when the newly elected top hat in Iran goes before the UN to address allegations that he was involved in the US embassy/hostage take-over years ago.  (He has been identified by hostages)

He will be laying out his nuclear intentions then too.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Hangtime on August 02, 2005, 03:39:35 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Gunthr
We're going to find out more in September when the newly elected top hat in Iran goes before the UN to address allegations that he was involved in the US embassy/hostage take-over years ago.  (He has been identified by hostages)

He will be laying out his nuclear intentions then too.


WHAT??!!!! A hostage taker is in charge.. effindamnation!

Oh lordy, be still; my heart!

MORE DATA PLEASE!
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Toad on August 02, 2005, 03:47:30 PM
Now hear this, now hear this: Stand By. Return all weapons to "full safe" condition. Do not, Repeat, Do Not go off half-cocked. That is all.


Ahmadinejad not man in Tehran embassy photo (http://today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2005-07-29T214405Z_01_N29292158_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-IRAN-USA-DC.XML)

Quote
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A CIA analysis has concluded a hostage-taker pictured in an old photo at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran is not Iranian President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a U.S. official said on Friday.

The analysis compared photos of Ahmadinejad and an embassy hostage-taker whom former U.S. hostages identified as the newly elected Iranian leader. It found discrepancies serious enough to suggest the two are different men.

"If there's a case to made that Ahmadinejad was one of the hostage-takers, it will not be made on the basis of those photographs," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of sensitive nature of the subject matter.

Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Hangtime on August 02, 2005, 04:11:45 PM
Thanks!!

*whew*
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Skydancer on August 02, 2005, 06:32:43 PM
I think if we got rid of our nuclear weapons / facilities we might have more of a leg to stand on when we tell others they can't have em. If not we  as atomic nations are mere hypocrytes.

To be honest never liked em or wanted em particularly when as a kid in Suffolk I knew there were rather more of em than I wanted on my doorstep and based far too close for comfort.

Never wanted a PWR like the one at 3mile Island built at Sizewell B either but the govt did it anyhow!

(http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~socs203/pics/CND.gif)

 (http://www.cndyorks.gn.apc.org/npnothanks.jpg)

Just two of the things I supported back then when my hair was longer!
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 02, 2005, 07:41:41 PM
I used to think we should just bomb them (and NK) into the ground for violating the NPT, but then a buddy of mine told me that enriching uranium isnt even illegal. Anyone can legally enrich uranium, so what moral or legal right do we have to stop them?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Maverick on August 03, 2005, 10:07:03 AM
IIRC the Isreali's still have some F16's and F15's. Could be a short lived problem.......
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 03, 2005, 02:00:37 PM
The IAF would have to fly over at least two arab countries and would need inflight refueling both ways. Sounds tricky to me.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Torque on August 03, 2005, 02:39:58 PM
considering the history between iran and imperial western countries, you'd have to be a rather insane iranian not to want nukes for a deterrent.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 03, 2005, 03:17:42 PM
Quote
Originally posted by FalconSix
I used to think we should just bomb them (and NK) into the ground for violating the NPT, but then a buddy of mine told me that enriching uranium isnt even illegal. Anyone can legally enrich uranium, so what moral or legal right do we have to stop them?


ummmm no

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,430649,00.html

Sources tell Time the IAEA has concluded that Iran actually introduced uranium hexafluoride gas into some centrifuges at an undisclosed location to test their ability to work. That would be a blatant violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory.

The IAEA declined to comment. A senior State department official said he believed El Baradei was trying to resolve the issue behind the scenes before going public. But experts say the new discoveries are very serious and should be handled in public. "If Iran were found to have an operating centrifuge, it would be a direct violation [of the non-proliferation treaty] and is something that would need immediately to be referred to the United Nations Security Council for action," says Jon Wolfstahl of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace


North Korea....

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nuke-uranium.htm

In an announcement that shocked the world, Washington said on 16 October 2002 that North Korea had admitted to secretly developing nuclear weapons, in violation of a 1994 agreement with the US.

President Bush, Republic of Korea President Kim Dae-Jung, and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi agree that North Korea's program to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons is a violation of several agreements and called on North Korea in a statement 26 October 2002 to dismantle the program in a prompt and verifiable manner. The three leaders agreed that North Korea's program to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons is a violation of the Agreed Framework, the Non-Proliferation Treaty, North Korea's IAEA safeguards agreement, and the South-North Joint Declaration on Denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The three leaders called upon North Korea to dismantle this program in a prompt and verifiable manner and to come into full compliance with all its international commitments in conformity with North Korea's recent commitment in the Japan-North Korea Pyongyang Declaration.

So as you can see if they want to use the "legal" way, there is plenty of violation to stand on.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 03, 2005, 04:02:17 PM
Quote
Originally posted by FalconSix
The IAF would have to fly over at least two arab countries and would need inflight refueling both ways. Sounds tricky to me.


  Hehe....don`t think that would be much of a prob.
  Highly possible an unmarked, "nonexistent" tanker could just happen to be in the neighborhood if needed. :)
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 03, 2005, 09:25:17 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Raider179
ummmm no

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,430649,00.html

Sources tell Time the IAEA has concluded that Iran actually introduced uranium hexafluoride gas into some centrifuges at an undisclosed location to test their ability to work. That would be a blatant violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory.

The IAEA declined to comment. A senior State department official said he believed El Baradei was trying to resolve the issue behind the scenes before going public. But experts say the new discoveries are very serious and should be handled in public. "If Iran were found to have an operating centrifuge, it would be a direct violation [of the non-proliferation treaty] and is something that would need immediately to be referred to the United Nations Security Council for action," says Jon Wolfstahl of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace


Just because a reporter or journalist tells you it's a "blatant violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" does not make it so. You'll notice the IAEA actually declined to comment. I've read the text of the NPT myself. There is nothing in the text pertaining to enriching uranium. The only illegal act is actually developing a weapon. Enriched uranium is also used as reactor fuel for compact reactors (nuke subs etc.)

NK is in "blatant violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" by their own admission so that's a no-brainer. Bombs away.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 03, 2005, 09:26:17 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Jackal1
Hehe....don`t think that would be much of a prob.
  Highly possible an unmarked, "nonexistent" tanker could just happen to be in the neighborhood if needed. :)


In who's airspace? ;)
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Hangtime on August 03, 2005, 09:43:07 PM
I'd kinda like to know.... who sold 'em a centrifuge?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Toad on August 03, 2005, 09:50:12 PM
In the last scene of Casablanca, Captain Renault gives orders to "Round up the usual suspects!"

Seems like a reasonable thing to do here.  ;)


 The centrifuge connection (http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=ma04albright)

Quote
By David Albright and Corey Hinderstein
March/April 2004  pp. 61-66 (vol. 60, no. 02) © 2004 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
 
   
Iran has admitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it made secret efforts to procure the wherewithal to make sophisticated gas centrifuges to enrich uranium. But few believe that Iran has told the whole story of its extensive foreign procurements.

As of mid-January 2004, Iranian officials continued to insist that they obtained sensitive centrifuge drawings and components through "intermediaries," and that they did not know the original source of the items.

Recent Pakistani government investigations are undercutting that assertion and magnifying concerns that Iran has made only a partial declaration to the IAEA. Senior Pakistani gas centrifuge experts and officials have admitted to Pakistani government investigators that they provided centrifuge assistance to Iran, Libya, and North Korea.

Details are sketchy at press time about who exactly was involved in these transfers, when they occurred, and how they were arranged. Although the Pakistani government has denied authorizing any of the transfers, characterizing them as the work of rogue scientists, evidence points to at least Pakistani government knowledge.

Iran had many other important suppliers. Individuals and companies in Europe and the Middle East also played a key role in supplying Iran's centrifuge program. China was the most important supplier to Iran's program to produce uranium compounds, including uranium hexafluoride, the highly corrosive gas used in centrifuges.

Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 03, 2005, 09:51:28 PM
Russia most likely, if they didn't make them themselves. Russia is overseeing most if not all of Iran's nuclear program, and selling them the uranium.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Holden McGroin on August 03, 2005, 09:55:07 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Skydancer
I think if we got rid of our nuclear weapons / facilities we might have more of a leg to stand on when we tell others they can't have em. If not we  as atomic nations are mere hypocrytes.


In cooperation with Russia, the USA is decommisioning its peacekeeper (MX) missile system.

According to the Bulliten of the Atomic Scientists  
Quote
We estimate that from 1945 to 1990, the United States produced at several sites approximately 70,000 nuclear weapons of approximately 70 types for more than 120 weapon systems. Annual production rates rose dramatically throughout the 1950s. In 1959 and 1960, there were 7,088 and 7,178 new builds, respectively, or about 28 warheads each workday. By 1967 the stockpile reached a historic high with approximately 32,000 warheads of 30 different types, from sub-kiloton landmines (atomic demolition munitions) to multi-megaton strategic bombs. The historic high for megatonnage was reached in 1960 with nearly 20,500 megatons (that's 20 billion tons, or 40 trillion pounds, of TNT)--the equivalent of about 1,400,000 Hiroshimas. Today the total is about one-tenth the 1960 level, or about 2,000 megatons, or 140,000 Hiroshimas.

The United States has dismantled approximately 60,000 warheads. For four decades, there was a steady rhythm to the size of the stockpile; old warheads were retired, their plutonium and uranium components recycled, and new warheads were fabricated and fielded. This ended in 1989, when the Rocky Flats plant in Colorado, where the pits were made, was shut down for safety and environmental reasons. Since then, no new warheads have been produced.

When the Cold War ended, there were approximately 21,500 nuclear warheads in the U.S. stockpile. More than 11,000 nuclear warheads were disassembled and disposed of during the 1990s, leaving about 10,400 in the current stockpile.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 03, 2005, 10:03:50 PM
Holding on to 10,000 nukes is far from "getting rid of" nukes. I don't agree though that everyone should get rid of their nukes. I think it would be far better if everybody had em.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Toad on August 03, 2005, 10:07:25 PM
Yeah, I think every family should have at least one.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 03, 2005, 10:11:51 PM
Yeah, we dont want any form of gun control now do we? :D
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Holden McGroin on August 04, 2005, 12:01:46 AM
Quote
Originally posted by FalconSix
Holding on to 10,000 nukes is far from "getting rid of" nukes. I don't agree though that everyone should get rid of their nukes. I think it would be far better if everybody had em.


If we don't get any credit at all for reducing our warheads by half and our megatonnage by 90%, then I say rebuild the stockpile.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 04, 2005, 12:45:48 AM
Quote
Originally posted by FalconSix
In who's airspace? ;)


You ever heard the one that goes....."Where does King Kong sleep?"
:)
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 04, 2005, 01:18:09 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
If we don't get any credit at all for reducing our warheads by half and our megatonnage by 90%, then I say rebuild the stockpile.


You wanna pay for that? I sure dont. You think the government wanted to keep all those nukes?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 04, 2005, 01:21:40 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Jackal1
You ever heard the one that goes....."Where does King Kong sleep?"
:)


That kind of mentality is what makes people blow our watermelon up and park planes in our buildings. If we are going to be that much involved we might just as well bomb the Iranians ourselves.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 04, 2005, 01:33:02 AM
Quote
Originally posted by FalconSix
That kind of mentality is what makes people blow our watermelon up and park planes in our buildings. If we are going to be that much involved we might just as well bomb the Iranians ourselves.


  What makes people "blow our watermelon up and park planes in our buildings " , as you put it , is one thing. Taking care of business is what makes it stop and or controls it. Cowering in the corner will get you arse whooped fast. We are not known to do a lot of backing down when the time comes.
  We will be as "involved"  as it takes if and when the time comes.
  We recently made a sell to Israel fitted for their planes if that gives you any insight.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Skydancer on August 04, 2005, 03:36:13 AM
"Taking care of business is what makes it stop and or controls it."

Not entirely sure that Policy has worked in Iraq!

Leading by example is a rather better idea wouldn't you say.( Its ok Jackal1  know you wouldn't  as its your avowed intent to disagree with everything emanating from my keyboard ;))

I think a worldwide ban on nuclear weapons might be better. Tough to enforce but its plain hypocracy to demand a nation complies with a nuclear ban whilst holding 10,000 nuclear weapons yourself.

" Do as we say not as we do" The mantra of a bully and thats how those parts of the world see us I fear.

I don't like the idea of an Islamic fundamentalist state having nukes but I can see why they wouldn't listen to us at the moment.You have to capture the moral high ground. I think we learned that in WW2 then promptly forgot it for the rest of history!
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Gh0stFT on August 04, 2005, 04:59:58 AM
How can a worldwide ban work for real?
They can't compete with the US in military force, but there are weapons of the weak. Weapons of mass destruction, which by now are becoming weapons of the weak, see North Korea.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Skydancer on August 04, 2005, 05:37:32 AM
Its a matter pf principle. Yeah it would be extremely difficult to enforce. But why in heavens name would any country listen to the US Britain and France for example when they wag their finger and say no you can't have them. I wouldn't listen. I'd do my damned hardest to acquire the same weapons then maybe I'd enter negotiations. I wouldn't just say "yeah ok you keep your 10,000 plus warheads and we'll get rid of all ours" Particularly when the sabres are rattling in the western world!!

Lead by example not by bullying or decree.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 04, 2005, 09:06:29 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Skydancer
"Taking care of business is what makes it stop and or controls it."

Not entirely sure that Policy has worked in Iraq!


  Well yaknow I don`t see a lot of Iraqi troops in neighboring countries nowadays raping , pillaging and destroying.
  Iraq itself is still in the early stages of development government wise at the moment. There is going to be trouble and lots of it for a long while yet. Things like this are not instant as some would wish. Anything worthwhile is worth fighting for.


Quote
Its ok Jackal1  know you wouldn't  as its your avowed intent to disagree with everything emanating from my keyboard ;))


  Well thanks for your OK on this. It means so much to me. :)
  You are correct in most cases. The reason for this is 98% of what you post I disagree with and find most to be mindress drivel and some to the point of absurd.

 
Quote

I think a worldwide ban on nuclear weapons might be better.


  I think that the world would be better off if I hit a multimillion dollar lottery. I wouldn`t hold my breath for either fairy tale wishs to happen. :)

Quote
I don't like the idea of an Islamic fundamentalist state having nukes but I can see why they wouldn't listen to us at the moment.


  And you think the governments of places such as Iran  and NK are reasonable and willing to listen?
  It`s pretty well laid out what will become of this if they do not cease and desist. They know it, we know it. At the moment both are doing absolutely nothing but trying use the possiblity of nuclear capabilities for blackmail. We are not much into that sort of thing, so it is going to be their choice.
  You can`t reason with those intent on the unreasonable.
  Countries such as these, in these times love getting a reaction from people in our countries showing weakness  such as "Stop the war",and Peaceniks, etc. As it stands that is the most they can hope for at the moment.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Skydancer on August 04, 2005, 09:36:26 AM
"At the moment both are doing absolutely nothing but trying use the possiblity of nuclear capabilities for blackmail. "

Urm couldn't it be said that is exactly what the western powers are doing? After all at the moment we are the ones with the nukes not they!
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Hangtime on August 04, 2005, 09:53:23 AM
the 'they':

Pakistan
India
China
North Korea
Ukrane
Russia
& the Former Soviet 'Stans'.

I suggest we keep ours for a little while longer.

Just in case.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: soda72 on August 04, 2005, 11:14:52 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Hangtime
the 'they':

Pakistan
India
China
North Korea
Ukrane
Russia
& the Former Soviet 'Stans'.

I suggest we keep ours for a little while longer.

Just in case.


Out of that list how many of those countries are stable?  two maybe three at most....
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Hangtime on August 04, 2005, 11:30:56 AM
Quote
Originally posted by soda72
Out of that list how many of those countries are stable?  two maybe three at most....


Yup. and Iran wouldn't be any improvement.

As it stands now our conventional non-nuke military is reasonably capable of dealing with any non-nuclear nations agression, world wide.

However, if we were to scrap our nukes, what would be the deterrent for an agressor WITH nukes?

MAD (mutally assured destruction) lives on... and so do we. The 'sword of damocles' cuts both ways.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Toad on August 04, 2005, 11:34:18 AM
No, no, no.

Don't you SEE?

If WE get rid of OURS all the other countries will get rid of THEIRS.

It's the US having them that is the problem.

Sky will explain it to you again, I'm sure.

Just repeat this mantra: "The US is the problem."

No bad guys anywhere would want/have/buy/use nukes if only the US got rid of all of the US weapons.

Come to think of it, we really don't need any conventional forces either.

It's the dawning of the Age of Aquarius.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Monk on August 04, 2005, 12:47:48 PM
Quote
It's the dawning of the Age of Aquarius.


Toad,

Ya got me thinkin. (http://www.ilovewavs.com/ForKids/Kum%20Ba%20Yah.wav)
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 04, 2005, 01:11:42 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Skydancer

Urm couldn't it be said that is exactly what the western powers are doing?  



  Well maybe you know something the rest of us mere mortals don`t, but on this side of the pond I don`t recall any instances of us using  any nuclear threat to blackmail any other country out of aid, money, or assistance.


 
Quote
After all at the moment we are the ones with the nukes not they


 You noticed that did ya? How very observant. You bet your sweet arse we do and it will stay that way. :)
  I realize you sort of cruise through life in a daze beleiving in a  "what if",  peace for all, all for one, feed the children, heal the sick, share the wealth type pf nonexistent dream world. You have made that clear on many, many occasions.
  I hate to be the one to break it to you and ruin your 3 wishs at the well, but there is a cold blooded, ruthless world out there full of little half baked radical leaders that at the very first sign of weakness or opportunity would walk over the rest of us like a cheap rug. It`s called reality, which you don`t seem to be too familiar with.
  We will keep our miltary and technilogical advantage or go down trying. I don`t know about you, but for the most part , on this side of the pond , we don`t bend over too often to pick up the soap.

  BTW, have you ever looked up in top right of the text box and noticed that little button entitled "Quote"? :)
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Toad on August 04, 2005, 01:33:54 PM
There's new lyrics to that now Monk.

Quote
Kumbaya my lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my lord, kumbaya
Kumbaya my lord, kumbaya
Oh lord, kumbaya

US is Evil lord, kumbaya
US is Evil lord, kumbaya
US is Evil lord, kumbaya
Oh lord, kumbayah

Smite the Yankees, lord, kumbaya
Smite the Yankees, lord, kumbaya
Smite the Yankees, lord, kumbaya
Oh lord, kumbaya

Give their nukes to us, lord, kumbaya
Give their nukes to us, lord, kumbaya
Give their nukes to us, lord, kumbaya
Oh lord, kumbaya

They’re so Evil, lord, kumbaya
They’re so Evil, lord, kumbaya
They’re so Evil, lord, kumbaya
Oh lord, kumbaya

Wipe them out, lord, kumbaya
Wipe them out, lord, kumbaya
Wipe them out, lord, kumbaya
Oh lord, kumbaya
Oh lord, kumbaya
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Clifra Jones on August 04, 2005, 01:47:00 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Skydancer
I think if we got rid of our nuclear weapons / facilities we might have more of a leg to stand on when we tell others they can't have em. If not we  as atomic nations are mere hypocrytes.

To be honest never liked em or wanted em particularly when as a kid in Suffolk I knew there were rather more of em than I wanted on my doorstep and based far too close for comfort.

Never wanted a PWR like the one at 3mile Island built at Sizewell B either but the govt did it anyhow!

(http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~socs203/pics/CND.gif)

 (http://www.cndyorks.gn.apc.org/npnothanks.jpg)

Just two of the things I supported back then when my hair was longer!


Hears another suggestion, let's get rid of all the doctors and medicine and we will no longer have to worry about diseases. Sound stupid? No more than the unilateral disarmement ideas.

You cannot prevent a war by disarming you only incourage and hasten its arrival.

A civilized sane society that wants nuclear weapons to protect itself is fine by me. Problem is Iran and N. Korea are far from that.  They are both openly hostile to the west and lack the culturtal maturity to posess such technology.

Without nuclear weapons all out global war would have erupted within 20 years of the end of WWII.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 04, 2005, 03:25:59 PM
Quote
Originally posted by FalconSix
Just because a reporter or journalist tells you it's a "blatant violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" does not make it so. You'll notice the IAEA actually declined to comment. I've read the text of the NPT myself. There is nothing in the text pertaining to enriching uranium. The only illegal act is actually developing a weapon. Enriched uranium is also used as reactor fuel for compact reactors (nuke subs etc.)

NK is in "blatant violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty" by their own admission so that's a no-brainer. Bombs away.


If you read it then how did you miss this part.

Article II
Each non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes not to receive the transfer from any transferor whatsoever of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or of control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly; not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices; and not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.



See that part at the end? NOT TO SEEK or receive any assistance....

Where did that centrifuge come from again? Oh yeah Pakistan's Khan.

You gonna claim it's a legitamate trade huh? If its legit then why did they hide it? You only hide something because you are doing something you don't want people to see.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Skydancer on August 04, 2005, 04:34:18 PM
"It's the US having them that is the problem."

Actualy Toad you are peddling the same old Sky hates the US rubbish without reading properly.

I included Britain and France in that equation. It wasn't a knock at the US but at the double standards the "we'll keep ours give up yours" message peddled by all those nations mine included.

Did it ever occur to you guys that though Mr Hussain wasn't exactly mr nice guy he was helping keep the madmen in Iran at bay. Rather a lot of Iraqis were killed fighting Iran!

Perhaps we should have kept the regime in Iraq in place? The US and Britain have supported other dodgy regimes to preserve what we saw at the time as the balance of power. Its not pretty or nice but it might've been a lot better than the mess we're in now!

Yes Jackal1 I see the button but it didn't seem to work on my computer unless I was just being technophobic.

Cheers for the homo reference/insult buried in the text by the way.
Just for info I think us Brits are the least likely to bend over in the shower and history tells us we're the first to get in the metaphorical shower while you guys are making up your mind if it might be too wet in there or which shower to get in! ;) :lol ( joke just incase you get all ornery again )

Oh and yes Clifra your doctors diseases analogy does sound a bit daft! Its totaly off the track. What I'm talking about here is the hypocracy of telling someone to do something that your not prepared to do yourself!
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Gh0stFT on August 04, 2005, 05:01:13 PM
in the whole thread replace the words "nuclear weapons" with "chocolate bar"
and see it from a different perspective.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 04, 2005, 05:10:24 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Skydancer
"It's the US having them that is the problem."


I included Britain and France in that equation. It wasn't a knock at the US but at the double standards the "we'll keep ours give up yours" message peddled by all those nations mine included.
 



See here is where your argument is gonna fall apart. The US has had them for 60 years and havent used them for the last 59 of those years. That is what is known as a "proven track record". See what that means is we have shown that we won't have some crazy fundamentalist uprising that seizes control of the military and government and starts shooting nukes off everywhere. Or giving them to countries or people that will use them. (want proof of that? How many nukes have been used in violence since hiroshima/nagasaki? Exactly ZERO) No other country has ever used a nuke in war. So the very idea that More countries should have them for protection because of our nukes is flawed the start.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 04, 2005, 05:12:02 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Raider179
If you read it then how did you miss this part.

Article II
Each non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty undertakes not to receive the transfer from any transferor whatsoever of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices or of control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly; not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices; and not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.



See that part at the end? NOT TO SEEK or receive any assistance....

Where did that centrifuge come from again? Oh yeah Pakistan's Khan.

You gonna claim it's a legitamate trade huh? If its legit then why did they hide it? You only hide something because you are doing something you don't want people to see.



"not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices."

Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes, and enriched uranium does have other purposes than making weapons. It can also be used as reactor fuel. I don't believe them, but I can't prove them wrong either.

Btw. many countries enrich uranium for scientific purposes, but since they're our "friends" we don't bother them.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 04, 2005, 05:18:59 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Skydancer


Perhaps we should have kept the regime in Iraq in place?
 


  This just in, I`ve heard it all now. It`s official.
  What planet are you from? The sadistic slob  was involved in wholesale slaughter.
  Geeez Louise, where do you come up with these off the wall ideas?


 
Quote
Cheers for the homo reference/insult buried in the text by the way.

  There is no insult to anyone and there is certainly nothing buried in the text. Get some Visine and read it  again. Paranoid are we?

Quote
Just for info I think us Brits are the least likely to bend over in the shower and history tells us we're the first to get in the metaphorical shower while you guys are making up your mind if it might be too wet in there or which shower to get in!


 I`d be more likely to say history tells us that you jumped in the pool prematurely. Off of the deep end with no life preserver and unable to swim unassisted. Had to be thrown a line and pulled from the turbulence before you drowned yourself. :)
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 04, 2005, 05:20:09 PM
Quote
Originally posted by FalconSix
"not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices."

Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes, and enriched uranium does have other purposes than making weapons. It can also be used as reactor fuel. I don't believe them, but I can't prove them wrong either.

Btw. many countries enrich uranium for scientific purposes, but since they're our "friends" we don't bother them.


The simplest answer I can give on why I beleive their "uranium enrichment" is going to be used for weapons is because of their refusal of the EU plan for Light-Water-Reactors.

They want Heavy-Water-Reactors so that they have a "legit" reason for producing enriched uranium for nukes. There is no reason to turn down the LWR plan from the EU if all you wanted was nuclear energy.

I will say this, I am as much concerned about Pakistan having nukes as I am Iran.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Skydancer on August 04, 2005, 05:52:35 PM
Jackal1 both the US and Britain have supported plenty of other sadistic slobs to keep the communists at bay! What are you gonna do fight the whole world! Who was the greatest threat? A bancrupt dictator with no WMD and a crumbling infrastructure, or a nation full of Fundamentalist loonies soon to be nuclear armed!  Who hate the US with a passion and are probably already fighting an undeclard war against you.

Mr Bush was an idiot and a foreign policy numpty to invade Iraq, Mr Blair was a fool to join him. Iraq was not the hotbed of terrorists under Saddam. It is now! What have we achieved exactly? other than to destabilise an already shaky region.  

Now your govt and ours have an almighty mess on our hands and a nation infested with suicide bombers and Islamic fundamentalists. All we have done is topple a nasty Persian Dictator to replace him with what will become another Islamic state intent on waging war on the west! Saddam was bugger all threat after sanctions and a good kicking in GW1. Now we have an enormous problem!

Raider if you look at it from a Western perspective you are quite right. The problem is the Islamic world doesn't see it like that. The problem with Bush Blair foreign policy is it only seems to view things from that western point of view. Failure to understand your enemy and what realy motivates him is the worst failure in this whole war on terror thing!
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Gh0stFT on August 04, 2005, 06:29:47 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Hangtime
the 'they':

Pakistan
India
China
North Korea
Ukrane
Russia
& the Former Soviet 'Stans'.

I suggest we keep ours for a little while longer.

Just in case.


Hangtime, what case?
a massive global nuclear attack against the US?
lol sure not, but what then? a nuclear terrorist attack?
imagine that, against who would the US use the bomb in this
situation?

if you ask me, to have nuclear weapons means self defense
in the case another country attacks with conventional weapons,
and the attacked country can´t defend themself with conventional
weapons.

Its more of a "last choice" weapon and not a primary attack weapon.

In this case everyone should have a chance to defend himself.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Hangtime on August 04, 2005, 06:41:19 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Gh0stFT
Hangtime, what case?
a massive global nuclear attack against the US?
lol sure not, but what then? a nuclear terrorist attack?
imagine that, against who would the US use the bomb in this
situation?

if you ask me, to have nuclear weapons means self defense
in the case another country attacks with conventional weapons,
and the attacked country can´t defend themself with conventional
weapons.

Its more of a "last choice" weapon and not a primary attack weapon.

In this case everyone should have a chance to defend himself.


really? betcha if yer place of residence was here you'd be singin a different tune.

No matter.. you don't; we do, and that's just fine by me.  

Just to clear up a small point of refrence... The point of non-proliferation is what again?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: soda72 on August 04, 2005, 07:21:45 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Hangtime
The point of non-proliferation is what again?


Hmmmm one must wonder about that... with general's from China threatening to nuke us if we interfere with an invasion of Taiwan..  or N. Korea threating to nuke Chicago, because we won't give them aid... or Iran who wants to kill us because we influenced their culture to respect slutty women and bad pop music....   I'm sure we are just over reacting and have nothing really to fear......
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: soda72 on August 04, 2005, 07:34:00 PM
EU calls for emergency Iran talks  (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4746791.stm)

this doesn't look good  :(
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Skydancer on August 04, 2005, 08:00:33 PM
Whatever happens I hope and pray We don't try to do in Iran what we mistakenly did in Iraq.

Invading Iran would be like trying to invade the Japanese homeland in WW2 only tenfold. A bloodbath.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 05, 2005, 01:22:01 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Skydancer
Jackal1 both the US and Britain have supported plenty of other sadistic slobs to keep the communists at bay!  


  Do you by chance remember the little country that he invaded and waged wholesale murder, rape, and destruction of?  This cat is so warped when there was a little boring streak in his life he just capped one of his family members for a little fun.

Quote
Who was the greatest threat? A bancrupt dictator with no WMD and a crumbling infrastructure, or a nation full of Fundamentalist loonies soon to be nuclear armed!  Who hate the US with a passion and are probably already fighting an undeclard war against you.


  If you are referring to Saddam as being bankrupt then man are you misinformed. Where do you get these off the wall theories from? That`s so ridculous it`s hilarious. If you still are buying into the "no WMD" crap I pity you for being so gullible to sensationalism by the media looking for a buck.
  Pssssst. The "soon to be nuclear armed" will not come to be. That`s what will be dealt with in no uncertain terms if and when the time comes. Now it is just a tool for attempted blackmail and extortion. A tool that is getting to be a little annoying that if continued to be played will cost them dearly.

 

 
Quote

Mr Bush was an idiot and a foreign policy numpty to invade Iraq, Mr Blair was a fool to join him

  Mr Bush did exactly what had to be done despite the I want to bury my head in the sand and pretend it doesn`t exist types . As far as Mr Blair, no comment. I don`t see it as much of a factor.

Quote
Iraq was not the hotbed of terrorists under Saddam. It is now


 Iraq was a most massive terrorist factory, so to speak, in the form of training , financing, support and what they mistakenly believed, refuge.
  Why do you think they are so POed at the occupation of Iraq? The playhouse is being torn down, piece by piece.
  You had rather live in your fantasy world where everything is insence and peppermints and wait for them to build in size, strength , support and financing to the point of large scale, at will attacks? Then you would be creaming "why didn`t someone do something about this before it reached this point?"

Quote
What have we achieved exactly? other than to destabilise an already shaky region.  


  Well, let`s see, we have taken a country back from a madman and are in the process of giving it at least a chance to rebuild, restructure and have a chance to let the people live under something other than tyranny.
  We have also commenced on a long term campaign to flush out and disorganize a large pipeline for terrorist training, finance and support in Iraq and in other hotspot regions.
 Once again, this will be a very long term process, not an instasolution.


Quote
Now your govt and ours have an almighty mess on our hands and a nation infested with suicide bombers and Islamic fundamentalists


  Yep, a mess that has been there and been growing and growing for a very long time left undealt with due to the "ostrich effect".
  Now it is being dealt with and will take a lot longer to control than if it had been done at an earlier stage.








Quote
Saddam was bugger all threat after sanctions and a good kicking in GW1.  


  Sanctions were tried and did exactly nothing, zilch. A little hard to have any effect with sanctions when they are not enforced and are being ignored and broken by those who claim to be part of the very enforcement of them. Sanctions are a joke.
Like I say it`s reality , not some "I wish I may, I wish I might" friggen fairy tale.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: soda72 on August 06, 2005, 09:35:45 AM
Well this doesn't come as a big suprise...

Iran turns down EU nuclear offer (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4126572.stm)

It also looks like the talks with NK is deadlocked....

Well if we are not going to do anything military wise what else is left to do?

I think the next step is to refer Iran's nuclear issue to the UN security council.   However is Russia getting paid to help build these reactors?  and if so won't they most likely veto anything that interfers with getting paid(assuming they haven't been paid already).
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 06, 2005, 09:47:48 AM
Quote
Originally posted by soda72
  However is Russia getting paid to help build these reactors?  and if so won't they most likely veto anything that interfers with getting paid(assuming they haven't been paid already).


Denial will be the first move from them, then everyone will scratch their heads for a long while trying to figure out what to do because they said they don`t have a part in it even though everyone knows that is a lie. Gotta keep everyone peachy cheesey dontcha know. :} A case in point is mentioned above .
  Russia is sort of like the little rich boy that was too good to even associate with the rest of the community until he wrecked Mommies BMW and had his allowance and privliges taken away. Now they will mow yards and carry out the garbage for ANYONE at any price.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Hangtime on August 06, 2005, 10:13:44 AM
once upon a time a mighty empire used trade embargos and blockades to enforce it's diplomatic edicts.

worked, too... because they actually seized or sank ships and cargoes that were attempting to break the blockade.

these days the UN declares santions, everybody ignores them, there's no enforcement.

should there be a 'zero tolerance' blockade.. i.e. rail lines taken down, trans-border oil pipelines smashed, ports mined, border road crossings mercilessly bombed when anything larger than a pedistrian appears at them...

a rigorus, complete and utter shutdown of a nations foriegn trade and ties with the outside world severed.. the nations external assets seized (not 'frozen'-- SEIZED), it's international banking stopped..

one wonders.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 06, 2005, 04:10:19 PM
Quote
Originally posted by soda72
Well if we are not going to do anything military wise what else is left to do?

I think the next step is to refer Iran's nuclear issue to the UN security council.   However is Russia getting paid to help build these reactors?  and if so won't they most likely veto anything that interfers with getting paid(assuming they haven't been paid already).


I mentioned it in another thread and I am sure you guys have seen it, but have you noticed who hasn't said anything?

U.S. OKs sale of bunker busters to Israel

Move seen as warning to Iran on nuclear ambitions
In-Depth Coverage WASHINGTON - The Bush administration has authorized the sale of as many as 100 large bunker-buster bombs to Israel. One expert said the move should serve as a warning to Iranians with nuclear ambitions.

The proposed deal, worth as much as $30 million, would provide Israel with the capability to drop 5,000-pound bombs that can penetrate bunkers and other buried structures. The GBU-28 bombs can be dropped from Israel’s American-made F-15 fighters.

“This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a friendly country that has been, and continues to be, an important force for economic progress in the Middle East,” the Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a press release.

Although the proposed sale will give Israel a significant new capability to attack underground targets, the agency said the move would not upset the balance of military power in the region.

“The Israelis want to be able to attack Iran’s underground nuclear weapons facilities,” said John Pike, a military expert at Globalsecurity.org in Alexandria, Va.

The propose sale should give notice to Tehran that the United States will not allow Iran to become a nuclear power if diplomatic efforts fail, he said.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2005/050427-bunker-busters-israel.htm

Now maybe you go to the UN, let Russia Veto, then Israel strikes, Then WE veto anything they try to slap Israel with. But you never know what that might start. Iran might start a big war over it. who knows, its getting ugly though and someone is going to bomb those things if Iran doesnt start acting reasonable.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: 1K3 on August 06, 2005, 04:43:51 PM
looks like WWIII is gonna start... on 2 fronts
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 06, 2005, 07:10:26 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Hangtime
once upon a time a mighty empire used trade embargos and blockades to enforce it's diplomatic edicts.

worked, too... because they actually seized or sank ships and cargoes that were attempting to break the blockade.

these days the UN declares santions, everybody ignores them, there's no enforcement.

should there be a 'zero tolerance' blockade.. i.e. rail lines taken down, trans-border oil pipelines smashed, ports mined, border road crossings mercilessly bombed when anything larger than a pedistrian appears at them...

a rigorus, complete and utter shutdown of a nations foriegn trade and ties with the outside world severed.. the nations external assets seized (not 'frozen'-- SEIZED), it's international banking stopped..

one wonders.


Blockade Iran? Are you INSANE? Do you want to pay $50 a gallon?

Not even Ronnie Ray-Gun wanted that!
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Nashwan on August 06, 2005, 08:03:00 PM
Yes, I wonder how loud the advocates of military action against Iran will be shouting when they can't afford to fill their cars up?

Iran is one of the major oil producers, removing it's oil from the world market will push up prices, but not by a huge amount.

However, any action against Iran will cause an increase in attacks in Iraq, likely reducing it's oil exports. It will cause instability in the market, and push prices up, and if Iran retaliates by attacking shipping in the Gulf, or with attacks on oil facilities in the Gulf, the price of oil could easily hit $150 a barrel. And the effect of oil at that price on western economies wouldn't be pretty.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: ASTAC on August 06, 2005, 08:28:34 PM
Quote
Originally posted by soda72
EU calls for emergency Iran talks  (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4746791.stm)

this doesn't look good  :(


What will the EU do? Write em a nasty letter? Oh I forgot, Thats the UN's job
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 07, 2005, 03:03:59 AM
Rule #4
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 07, 2005, 03:05:12 AM
Rule #4
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Nashwan on August 07, 2005, 06:04:58 AM
Do you understand the concpet of a "market"?

Iran produces over 4 million barrels a day, just over 5% of world oil production. (Exports are lower because Iran is quite a heavy user, too)

Take Iran's oil out of the world market and you have the same number of people chasing less oil, which will drive up prices.

Imagine a case where Iran exports all it's oil to Japan. If the Japanese can't get Iranian oil suddenly do you think they will just do without? Or do you think they'll go to the market and buy oil elsewhere? And do you think countries that currently supply oil to the US will do so at the same prices when they can get more by selling the oil to someone else?

Oil is a commodity. Reduce supply to the market and everybody has to pay an increased price.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Hangtime on August 07, 2005, 07:34:31 AM
lets see.. hmm.. increased oil prices vs the cost of a full blown iranian war now, (with increased oil prices) or a nuclear present from them later. (with increased oil prices)

or we can do diddly, (and the price of oil goes up anyway)

hmmm..

gee, tough decision.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 07, 2005, 07:45:48 AM
Rule #4
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Skydancer on August 07, 2005, 06:15:34 PM
Jackal1 reading your ususual diatribe I'd say its you whos been duped mate not me.  Iraq a hotbed of terrorist training camps!? WMDs!? :rofl :rofl Boy are you mr gullible!

Listen pal If I said the US flag was the stars and stripes you'd say I was wrong, stupid, anti American.Basicaly  whatever I say you will take issue with. :rolleyes:
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 07, 2005, 07:48:31 PM
Raider179, I guess your future opinions will not matter.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 07, 2005, 08:26:07 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Skydancer
Jackal1 reading your ususual diatribe I'd say its you whos been duped mate not me.  Iraq a hotbed of terrorist training camps!? WMDs!? :rofl :rofl Boy are you mr gullible!

Listen pal If I said the US flag was the stars and stripes you'd say I was wrong, stupid, anti American.Basicaly  whatever I say you will take issue with. :rolleyes:


  No worry of you ever being accused of being American bud. You couldn`t cut the mustard. Relax.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 08, 2005, 12:35:38 AM
Quote
Originally posted by FalconSix
Raider179, I guess your future opinions will not matter.


Yeah, Hope you got read my post before they got edited. You might actually learn something. But if you can prove I was wrong on ANYTHING I have posted, by all means feel free. I express my opinion and I back it up with facts, where are yours?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 08, 2005, 12:36:48 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Nashwan
Do you understand the concpet of a "market"?

Iran produces over 4 million barrels a day, just over 5% of world oil production. (Exports are lower because Iran is quite a heavy user, too)

Take Iran's oil out of the world market and you have the same number of people chasing less oil, which will drive up prices.

Imagine a case where Iran exports all it's oil to Japan. If the Japanese can't get Iranian oil suddenly do you think they will just do without? Or do you think they'll go to the market and buy oil elsewhere? And do you think countries that currently supply oil to the US will do so at the same prices when they can get more by selling the oil to someone else?

Oil is a commodity. Reduce supply to the market and everybody has to pay an increased price.


Explain to me how exactly Iran is gonna take its oil off the market? They will just sell to someone else and hence it will not affect worldwide supply and demand.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 08, 2005, 02:01:25 AM
Deleted

Rule #4
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 08, 2005, 02:21:01 AM
Deleted

Rule #4
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Lazerus on August 08, 2005, 03:09:10 AM
Read this (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1414303432/qid=1123488333/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_ur_2_1/102-2416320-6434520) Saturday. Improbable buildup, but not far from what is happening. A good read none the less.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: FalconSix on August 08, 2005, 05:13:52 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Raider179
Deleted


I guess it's too much for you to follow a simple discussion. Hangtime proposed a US military blockade. You know, like the one we have on Cuba. Seems to work very well.

Never mind, you're not worth the effort. Your future opinions will not matter.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Nashwan on August 08, 2005, 06:27:22 AM
Quote
Explain to me how exactly Iran is gonna take its oil off the market? They will just sell to someone else and hence it will not affect worldwide supply and demand.


I wouldn't like to bet on that once the bombs start dropping.

I also wouldn't like to bet that Iran will just sit back and allow their nuclear plants to be bombed without retaliation.

I mean, the whole argument for attacking them is they are so fanatical they will start a nuclear war if they have nukes, what's the chance that they won't launch suicide strikes at Saudi, Kuwaiti, UAE oil production facilities?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: babek- on August 08, 2005, 02:33:39 PM
Now - what can happen now against Iran ?

A full scale invasion ?
Sure - especially if you consider how successful these forces against Terror today control such small countries like Iraq or Afghanistan. Where all the liberated people celebrate their liberators and where US soldiers can walk through the streets of Bagdad without the fear to be killed every minute by some suicide idiots.

So its surely no problem to control the much larger Iran with 60 millions of shi ites instead of sunnites.

And I am also sure that the iranian grand ajatollah Sistani, the leader of the iraqi shi ite majority will just sit back and watch how foreigners attack iranian shi ites . Surely this will stabilize Iraq further.

Also Iran will say to their Hezbollah and Hamas friends: "Please dont attack anyone of them around the world - they are just fighting terrorism."

Loyal countries like Germany and France cant await to join the proud allaince against Terroism and send their soldiers for this holy war.

So - there are absolutely no risks in an attack against Iran.

But even if there wouldnt be an invasion but only some nice bombing attacks there is no risk that so  civilized countries like Russia or China would rebuild them in extreme short time for iranian oil dollars.

And surely the mullah regime will be destabilzed by such attacks of foreigners against Iran, because the people of Iran love it, when foreigners attack their country.

When Mad dog Saddam and his arab hordes tried to invade iran some decades ago the iranians just surrendered and didnt build a fanatic army which kicked out the iraqis from iranian territory with human-wave.attacks.

And if no invasion or bombing than surely an embargo will be effective.

Remember the iranian F-14 ? In 1980 the support with spare parts was stopped and none of these planes could fly anylonger.

So this picture (http://www.acig.org/artman/uploads/iriaf_f-14a_3-6024_with_aim-54.jpg) must be a paintshop fake and not one of the many still operational F-14 of the IRIAF with new camo-colours taken in a 2005 air show in Iran.


As you see - there are absolutely no risks in starting invasions/bombings/embargos against Iran.

So - what are we waiting for?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 08, 2005, 03:39:33 PM
Quote
Originally posted by FalconSix
I guess it's too much for you to follow a simple discussion. Hangtime proposed a US military blockade. You know, like the one we have on Cuba. Seems to work very well.

Never mind, you're not worth the effort. Your future opinions will not matter.


You do know that Iran is not an Island right? With land routes through Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. Righttt and I am not worth your time. We cant even close the borders off here in America, we arent gonna be able to do it halfway around the world.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 09, 2005, 07:03:32 PM
What what what? Even Russia is calling for the cessation of the uranium enrichment. Glad to see they are coming back to our side.

Russia has called on Iran to stop work on uranium conversion immediately, a day after it resumed operations at its nuclear facility at Isfahan.
Iran's main partner in its effort to develop nuclear power urged Tehran to continue co-operating with the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.

The IAEA meets on Wednesday to discuss whether Iran should be referred to the UN Security Council for sanctions.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4136662.stm

It should be obvious to those who arent completely blind that Iran is enriching uranium for the purpose of making nukes. After all why did they need to enrich uranium if Russia was going to provide the fuel for the reactors?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Jackal1 on August 16, 2005, 01:38:13 AM
Give it a rest slick. Russia is a horse with many faces and all of them have a knife in one hand behind their back.
Get a grip.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 16, 2005, 01:36:29 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Jackal1
Give it a rest slick. Russia is a horse with many faces and all of them have a knife in one hand behind their back.
Get a grip.


Yeah but they dont wont to back Iran. That place is gonna get leveled soon.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1093747,00.html

The U.S. Military's new nemesis in Iraq is named Abu Mustafa al-Sheibani, and he is not a Baathist or a member of al-Qaeda. He is working for Iran. According to a U.S. military-intelligence document obtained by TIME, al-Sheibani heads a network of insurgents created by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps with the express purpose of committing violence against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. Over the past eight months, his group has introduced a new breed of roadside bomb more lethal than any seen before; based on a design from the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hizballah, the weapon employs "shaped" explosive charges that can punch through a battle tank's armor like a fist through the wall. According to the document, the U.S. believes al-Sheibani's team consists of 280 members, divided into 17 bombmaking teams and death squads. The U.S. believes they train in Lebanon, in Baghdad's predominantly Shi'ite Sadr City district and "in another country" and have detonated at least 37 bombs against U.S. forces this year in Baghdad alone.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: mora on August 16, 2005, 02:24:39 PM
Quote
Originally posted by babek-
Remember the iranian F-14 ? In 1980 the support with spare parts was stopped and none of these planes could fly anylonger.

So this picture
(http://www.acig.org/artman/uploads/iriaf_f-14a_3-6024_with_aim-54.jpg)
must be a paintshop fake and not one of the many still operational F-14 of the IRIAF with new camo-colours taken in a 2005 air show in Iran.

Very nice paint scheme. They are also producing improved Phoenix missiles, which will give hard time to any modern plane.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Toad on August 16, 2005, 02:40:32 PM
Quote
In any event, it is believed that Soviet and Russian expertise has allowed Iran to operate, maintain, and upgrade the F-14 fleet. The aircraft are reportedly being upgraded with a new Russian radar, engines, and a glass cockpit allowing them to serve until well into the 21st century.

The Iranian press has further indicated that the surviving aircraft have been adapted for a heavy bombing roll, perhaps armed with air-to-surface anti-ship missiles. Some 50 to 55 are believed to remain in service, but only about 30 of these are considered airworthy at any one time.



http://www.aerospaceweb.org/question/planes/q0077.shtml



Interesting to note the US Navy has divested the AIM-54. On July 15, 2004 the last AIM-54 was shot by VF-213 Cag-8; Pilot- LCDR Mark Tankersley and RIO- LTJG Scott Timmester.
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: Raider179 on August 16, 2005, 04:42:31 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Toad
http://www.aerospaceweb.org/question/planes/q0077.shtml



Interesting to note the US Navy has divested the AIM-54. On July 15, 2004 the last AIM-54 was shot by VF-213 Cag-8; Pilot- LCDR Mark Tankersley and RIO- LTJG Scott Timmester.


Didn't know they took the phoenix out of service. What else do they have that can match the capabilities of the Phoenix?
Title: Iran: crisis looming over nuclear plans
Post by: ASTAC on August 16, 2005, 07:58:17 PM
Quote
Originally posted by mora
Very nice paint scheme. They are also producing improved Phoenix missiles, which will give hard time to any modern plane.


How many F-14 did the cannibalize to get that one flying?

I've been over to the gulf many times over the past 12 years..every time you see these less and less often...The US Navy doesn't even brief those as any kind of threat anymore.

I think 30 airworthy craft is a huge overestimate..I'd say probrably 10.