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General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Krusher on August 15, 2005, 11:18:20 AM

Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Krusher on August 15, 2005, 11:18:20 AM
By Bill Roggio
With the fourth anniversay of the hot war between al Qaeda and the West approaching, it is interesting to see how al Qaeda's strategy and objectives have evolved since the United States committed to engaging in open warfare.

The Word Unheard points us to an article in Spiegel Online by a Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein, who is believed to be a reliable source of information on al Qaeda. His main source for this article on al Qaeda strategy is none other than Saif al-Adel, al Qaeda's military commander who is currently operating from Iran.

purported strategy can be broken down into seven "phases" which span from 2000 until 2020, at which time they believe the global Islamist Caliphate will be established and they will acheive "definitive victory." Here are the phases, which are followed by commentary when appropriate.

The First Phase Known as "the awakening" -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby "awakening" Muslims. "The first phase was judged by the strategists and masterminds behind al-Qaida as very successful," writes Hussein. "The battle field was opened up and the Americans and their allies became a closer and easier target." The terrorist network is also reported as being satisfied that its message can now be heard "everywhere."
al Qaeda can claim some success in the First Phase, as the organization is now the preeminent terrorist organization on the planet. The attacks of September 11 were cheered throughout the Islamic world. The global media disseminates Al Qaeda commander's speeches. Each and every terrorist attack is followed by suspicious of al Qaeda involvement. And the US did indeed bring the war to the Islamic world in Afghanistan and Iraq, however not against Islam itself. But this came at a price, as Islamist Afghanistan and friendly Saddam-governed Iraq were lost.

The Second Phase "Opening Eyes" is, according to Hussein's definition, the period we are now in and should last until 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the "Islamic community." Hussein believes this is a phase in which al-Qaida wants an organization to develop into a movement. The network is banking on recruiting young men during this period. Iraq should become the center for all global operations, with an "army" set up there and bases established in other Arabic states.
So far, the Second Phase has been a failure. The Arab and greater Islamic Street has been essentially silent in its support of al Qaeda. The perception that al Qaeda's cause is popular as hundreds of Islamists enter Iraq monthly is overshadowed by the tens of thousands of Islamic fighters who enter Afghanistan during the war with the Soviet Union. al Qaeda has generated new recruits, but not nearly enough to replace the experienced operators and managers that have been lost under the American onslaught in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Winning the Second Phase is important from a ideological standpoint. Defeat in Iraq would seriously harm the credibility of al Qaeda and weaken their mystique. They would possess a losing ideology that could not stand up to the Great Satan. Allah would have abandoned them to the privations of the infidel.



The Third Phase This is described as "Arising and Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a focus on Syria," prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaida's masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.

The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida." At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be targeted using cyber terrorism.
The Third and Fourth Phases can essentially be condensed. The potential spread of jihad and instability to Iraq's neighbors of Turkey, Syria, (and while not mentioned, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait) as well as Israel highlights the importance of an American victory in Iraq. Iraq, as a failed state, would provide al Qaeda a base to create instability in bordering countries, setting the stage for overthrow by the Islamists.

It should be noted that Syria is playing a dangerous game by allowing al Qaeda to use its soil to conduct operations in Iraq. The jihadis are developing contacts, networks and obtaining recruits, which can eventually by turned against the Asad regime.

For the record, it seems al Qaeda has already laid the groundwork for the Third and Fourth Phases. There are reports al Qaeda seeks to establish itself in Gaza to strike Israel, and Turkish vacation spots, including cruise ships are believed to have been the target of a just-foiled al Qaeda plot. Islamic countries have been the target of numerous al Qaeda attacks {see flash presentation, 2M download), and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been in open war with al Qaeda for several years. Saudi oil facilities have been a target throughout.

The United States will not allow another Islamic state to fall to al Qaeda's ideologues. The lesson of September 11 serves as a reminder of what happened when Afghanistan became a sanctuary and de facto al Qaeda state.

The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.
The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.

The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as "definitive victory." Hussein writes that in the terrorists' eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the "one-and-a-half million Muslims," the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020, although the war shouldn't last longer than two years.


Phases Five, Six and Seven are merely the dreams of al Qaeda, as the prospects for al Qaeda's success in phases One thru Fourth are looking grim at the moment. Despite media portrayal of defeat in Iraq, the Iraqi people are fighting the insurgency and the Anbar region is set to be reduced as an al Qaeda rear area. The jewel of al Qaeda, Afghanistan, fell almost four years ago, and al Qaeda and its Taliban allies have not come even close to retaining control. There are rumors of a serious rift between al Qaeda and the Taliban, as the Taliban believes its woes were created by closely allying themselves with Osama's cause.

However, in the event of the United State loses its political will and pursues a policy of isolation from the Muslim world, an inevitable showdown with al Qaeda would ensue. Open confrontation with the West, as well as the possibility of a nuclear armed Caliphate, would bring the full military might of the Western World (those who value their freedom). The current operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, Southeast and Central Asia and within the borders of Western nations would be tame in comparison to what would come. The Japanese, Germans and Italians discovered in World War II the price of wakening the American military psyche.

The West would basically have two options: (1) blitzkrieg 21st Century style - the full mobilization of its military and an accompanying sweep of the Islamic crescent, without regards for Politically Correct warfare; (2) nuclear war. Both campaigns would be designed to fully eliminate the Islamist threat, and the Muslim infrastructure, which allowed for the rise of al Qaeda's ideology.
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Krusher on August 15, 2005, 11:25:35 AM
If you read this article, try and get past the first two phases with an open mind.  Its the last 5 that are very interesting and tell a story some may not want to hear.

I find this part to be the most telling:

The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.
The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

So who do you think the non-believers are?  The people who seem to think they only want Americans are in for a surprise.

Personaly I think this plan is doomed to failure and will result in a major backlash against Muslims in general.  I just hope we dont see a world wide Balkans repeat.
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Raider179 on August 15, 2005, 11:53:12 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Krusher
If you read this article, try and get past the first two phases with an open mind.  Its the last 5 that are very interesting and tell a story some may not want to hear.

I find this part to be the most telling:

The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.
The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

So who do you think the non-believers are?  The people who seem to think they only want Americans are in for a surprise.

Personaly I think this plan is doomed to failure and will result in a major backlash against Muslims in general.  I just hope we dont see a world wide Balkans repeat.


LoL I think if Al-qaida's ever get their own "state", they are gonna get a visit from a few B-2's. Hopefully they would use nukes, but one can only wish.

Non-believer = Anyone who is not a strict and devout, extremist muslim.

nice read though.
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: storch on August 15, 2005, 11:59:54 AM
pfffft
Title: Re: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Ripsnort on August 15, 2005, 12:50:33 PM
Cool! My seven phases for eliminating al Queda and all extremists terrorism would be as follows:

The First Phase Known is "You woke up a sleeping Giant you dummy!" -- this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2001 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. Fortunately, al Queda keeps sending more dummies to blow themselves up from Iran and Syria, thus helping us reduce the population of these varmin. Unfortunately, Iraq is not yet secure, but the extremists are becoming quite hated in Iraq with vigilantism popping up all over the country.

The Second Phase "Bend Over" is, the period we are now in and should last until 2010. Now that we are fully aware of the extremist "Islamic community", we've set up a future base of operations in Iraq that will keep us there for many years to come, in order to hunt down and slaughter those terrorists. This Base of operations known as Iraq keeps the terrorists all focused in one area so that extermination is closer to hand, and not to the shores of our country, the USA.

The Third Phase is described as "Bending your Daddy Over Too" and should last from 2010 to 2020. There most certaily will be a focus on Syria, Iran, Jordon and all the other countries where these skirt-wearing little frightened dogs lie.  Attacks will be carried out against these countries until political pressure and military might convinces the sheltering-governments into cooperation with the rest of the world in NOT supporting terrorism.

Our Fourth Fifth Phases can essentially be condensed. The potential spread of Death and Destruction compliments of the US Marines to Iraq's neighbors of Syria, and Iran as well as North Korea would provide the USA more bases to create stability in bordering countries, setting the stage for upholding and supporting democracy in these countries.

The Sixth Phase will occur from 2020 onwards. There will a period of "total democracy and the total free flow of oil."  Continuing to crush small pockets of resistence from terrorists with a new "smart Weapon" system that can sniff out a terrorist based on a profile such as this:

Hates Wal-Mart.
Hates  television.
Hates cheerleaders.
Hates baseball.
Hates  football.
Hates basketball.
Hates hockey.
Hates tailgate parties.
Hates  Home Depot.
Hates  pork BBQ.
Hates  hot dogs.
Hates  burgers.
Hates lobster.
Hates shellfish, or even frozen fish sticks.
Hates  jambalaya.
Has more than one wife.  
Hates  chocolate chip cookies.
Hates  Girl Scout cookies.
Hates Christmas.
Can't shave.
Wives can't shave.
Their women have to wear baggy dresses and veils at all times.
Bride(s) is picked by someone else.



The Seventh Phase is the final stage. It involves the success in our 20 years of seeking alternate fuel sources, thus rendering the entire middle east back to its 3rd world country status for its Kings.
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Maverick on August 15, 2005, 01:35:39 PM
Rip,

So in a nut shell, the last phase of your plan could be labeled as "playing cowboys and muslims". Izzat what you are saying?









For the sarcasm impaired, please note the above IS sarcasm. Thank you.
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Ripsnort on August 15, 2005, 01:48:54 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Maverick
Rip,

So in a nut shell, the last phase of your plan could be labeled as "playing cowboys and muslims". Izzat what you are saying?









For the sarcasm impaired, please note the above IS sarcasm. Thank you.


Heh, yeah. Except this time the stakes are global. :)
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: cpxxx on August 15, 2005, 02:51:56 PM
Interesting plan. Interesting too that it meshes with certain biblical predictions. Interesting too that Megiddo where the biblical final battle takes place is pretty much at the border between the Muslim and Christian world.

Interesting or not it is doomed to failure.  If it ever comes to a fight between Arabs and... well virtually anybody else. The Arabs will lose because if history teaches us anything is that they invariably lose when they come up against any other race. Israel being a prime example, surrounded by Arabs and heavily outnumbered. They not only survive but represent a threat to them. When the Iraqis took on Iranians (Persians) they suffered a bloody nose.
No disrespect to Arabs but they make poor soldiers. As Arabs are supposedly going to make up the bulk of the fighting men against the west, then they will lose. The average western white European male (which includes Americans by and large) frankly like fighting and make damm good soldiers. There are any number of examples of this.

The plan also pre supposes strong support from all Muslims. That's not very likely. The shii-tes won't play ball and the Sunni faction are divided. A few disaffected losers turned suicide bombers and the the support of the great unwashed peasant mob does not an army make.

The plan is pure fantasy. If 9/11 like Pearl Harbour was take America out of the game then it failed. The 'Jihadi' are being expended daily in Iraq to no purpose.  Terrorism in the west requires at least the tacit support of local Muslims. It only takes one or two atrocities for people to see that the extremists represent a bigger danger to Islam than to the western lifestyle. To use a WW2 comparsion this is the end of 1942. They are not quite losing yet but nothing is working out quite like they thought.
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: 1K3 on August 15, 2005, 03:08:12 PM
Im guessing that IRAQ FRONT is the "make or break" for Al-Qaeda and U.S. coalition.

Winning the Second Phase is important from a ideological standpoint. Defeat in Iraq would seriously harm the credibility of al Qaeda and weaken their mystique. They would possess a losing ideology that could not stand up to the Great Satan. Allah would have abandoned them to the privations of the infidel.
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Seeker on August 15, 2005, 03:11:42 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Krusher


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

So who do you think the non-believers are?  The people who seem to think they only want Americans are in for a surprise.

Personaly I think this plan is doomed to failure and will result in a major backlash against Muslims in general.  I just hope we dont see a world wide Balkans repeat.


Interesting article; and plausable in intent.

One thing it skates over a bit however; is the image of Islam as a homogeneous faith; that there is only "one" Islam.

That's about as accurate as saying there's "one" Christianity or even "one" Buddism.

For example; I'd imagine the Whabist Saudi's would be amongst the unbelievers according Al Quaada; who I believe are Shi-'ite  (aren't they?). Similarly most of Indonesia; the biggest muslim state of them all is also of a different sect.

It may indeed be possible with careful manipulation that Bin Ladin could succeed in unifying "Muslims" to some degree against the "Christian" west, in the same way some Western leaders have tried to make it into a "them and us"; but history shows two things:

To win a war; allies have to remain allies until the job in hand is accomplished; as the West and Russia did.

And..

The most dangerous time for a resistance organisation is when it appears to be close to it's goal; as it's then; when the comon enemy seems to   be out of the way, that there's time and energy to spare for the real enemy; the internal one; those that almost agree with the collective; but don't agree quite enough.

It wouldn't suprise me at all if we have some serious conflict coming our way; and in some way it goes a teeny weensy bit towards explaining why Bush seems intent on turning Iran into the Cuban missile crisis of his reign (maybe he has pretensions of being a Kennedy?).

However; I just can't see any alliance of Islamic sects lasting any further than it's first victory.

Actualy; I think two things the West should be adressing are getting the Koran translated into as many tongues as possible; on the grounds that translating the Bible from Latin went a big way to loosening the Roman grip on Christianity

And..

Publicaly debating Bin Laden's political (not religious) agenda. Show people en masse what projected lifestyle Bin Ladin offers. The wish for Freedom is often nothing more than enlightened self interest. This, for instance, is where the IRA is failing right now. Their politics suck; and now that a vote for them means they might actualy get a say in Northern Ireland's finances is what's causing the most resistance to support.

But let's throw a curve ball here...

The West is not alone. Russia's feeling the terrorist threat acutely. If Bush could get Putin realy involved; seriously onboard; it'd be amazing how quick the UN and other socialist inspired institutions would jump on the band wagon; and Bush would indeed, go down in history as a Statesman, at last.

And then there's China. And Chineese Muslims.

Imagine if it were known North Korea had sold material for the dirty bomb coming in Shanghai.......

There's a doomsday novel for you :)
Title: Watch this......
Post by: REP0MAN on August 15, 2005, 03:55:08 PM
*pulls up sleeves*
*bends slightly at the knees*
*prepares for flawless delivery*





























NUKE EM




















Again, Sarcasm Police, another case for ya.......:aok
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: cpxxx on August 15, 2005, 08:33:57 PM
Repoman, you are completely in error as to your assessment of the correct solution to the ongoing problem of Islamic extremism. I'm afraid nuking them as you so delicately put it is inflammatory and would create considerable fallout amongst the warring parties. It would only serve to spread the extremists over an extremely wide area. Extremely wide.
The very last thing we need is a bunch of terrorists falling out of the sky as a radioactive dust cloud.

I think you need to reassess your solution. What they really need is lots of beer and a few real virgins.  If there's anything that would drive a man to suicide it's being deprived of beer and girls.

No we should supply them with beer and girlie mags. :cool:
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Toad on August 15, 2005, 08:43:18 PM
Quote
Originally posted by cpxxx
No we should supply them with beer and girlie mags. :cool:


I think that's why they hate us now.

I've heard they all shout "Deth to Amreeka" every night when they're done watching their prohibitied copies of Jenna Jameson videos. Over and over and over again.... deeper and deeper... harder and harder.... DETH TO AMREEKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: cpxxx on August 15, 2005, 08:50:01 PM
They hate us now because we have the beer and the girlie mags and they are not allowed to have either.

It's a longstanding truth that many a boy loses interest in all his hobbies and his religion when his hormones kick in and he notices girls and booze. Imagine how you'd feel if were allowed neither. No wonder they're suicidal. :eek:
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Gunslinger on August 15, 2005, 08:52:36 PM
This is down right scary sounding when you think about it.  I got this in an email the other day.  Please note I don't beleive half the stuff I get but they do make for an interesting read somtimes.

Quote
The Islamic Ten Point Plan for America  
     

 1) Multiply Islamists as fast as possible by immigration, birth & conversion in prisons. They have over 8 million. There were over 30,000 new converts to Islam in the three months after September 11.

Numbers have increased 16 times in 16 years. You do the math.

2) Teach children to hate Christians and Jews. There are already over 300 Islamic schools in the U.S. In addition the mosques and many of their parents teach them to hate us. Same as in Israel.

3) Train black leaders to produce racially inspired marches and race riots on demand. Jackson and Sharpton will do it. Farakkhan has been doing it for years. The ‘67 riots will be back, but two hundred times bigger.

4) Cut off U.S. ties to Israel. This is being done slowly and we will not notice. Now we have recognized an anti-God state in the middle of God’s Land - nothing should surprise us.
 
5) Take as much control as possible of the Media. Make sure interviews are loaded on the side of Islam. Portray Islam as a peaceful religion. Fool our President and cabinet first.

6) Appeal to Americans sympathy for minorities. (Not the smaller Jewish minority of course).

7) Get Muslims into government and business. Have you ever noticed how many Doctors, Lawyers, Judges and computer specialists are Islamic?

8) Promote fear of terrorism. Then offer peace on Islamic terms. Pattern this after what has been done in Israel.

9) When the time is right destroy the American economy transportation and infrastructure by cutting the oil supply completely. Remember what a price increase did? In fact the last 4 recessions were caused by oil problems. Total shutdown of oil will cause riots in favor (believe it or not) of the Islamists. People will demand we do whatever the Saudis say as long as they can drive their cars.

10) Use stored nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. The Islamic Terrorists in the U.S. have all the weapons they need right here in America.



Those items already completed or well on the way are marked in red.

The others can easily be accomplished within ten years.

   
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: FiLtH on August 15, 2005, 10:52:56 PM
I was looking for Phase 8: Gets off floor and milks the goat
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Pei on August 16, 2005, 12:50:51 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Seeker
Interesting article; and plausable in intent.

One thing it skates over a bit however; is the image of Islam as a homogeneous faith; that there is only "one" Islam.


For example; I'd imagine the Whabist Saudi's would be amongst the unbelievers according Al Quaada; who I believe are Shi-'ite  (aren't they?). Similarly most of Indonesia; the biggest muslim state of them all is also of a different sect.



Your main point is true: there is no central Islamic power structure (histroically it was the Caliphate in the first few centuries but Islam divided pretty quickly into different sub groups).

Al Queda is a Sunni organisation, Wahabism is a Sunni sect/doctrine that is very close to Al Queda. Sunni/Shi'a are both labels more like "Protestant" in Christianity: i.e. there are many branches and groups within each that are not necessarily compatible or friendly.

Indonesia is Sunni by a vast majority: Sunnism is the largest of the main divisions in Islam.

IIRC Only Iran and (by a much lesser extent) Iraq are majority Shi'a states. Pakistan and Syria also have significant Shi'a minorities.

It's important to remember that while the press and the various coalition governments refer to Shi'as, Sunnis and Kurds as the major divisions in Iraq it's not quite that simple. The Shi'as of the South and the Sunnis of the centre are both ethnic Arab groups, the Kurds are a different ethnic group that are actually mostly Sunni as well. So the divisions between centre and south are religous, but the divisions between centre and north are ethnic (so therefore the divisions between north and south are both ethnic and religious: Sunni Kurds vs Shi'a Arabs).

Extremist Sunnis regard Shi'as as apostates (and the reverse is true for extremist Shi'as regarding Sunnis).
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Krusher on August 16, 2005, 11:57:12 AM
Quote
Originally posted by Seeker

Actualy; I think two things the West should be adressing are getting the Koran translated into as many tongues as possible; on the grounds that translating the Bible from Latin went a big way to loosening the Roman grip on Christianity

And..

Publicaly debating Bin Laden's political (not religious) agenda. Show people en masse what projected lifestyle Bin Ladin offers. The wish for Freedom is often nothing more than enlightened self interest. This, for instance, is where the IRA is failing right now. Their politics suck; and now that a vote for them means they might actualy get a say in Northern Ireland's finances is what's causing the most resistance to support.

But let's throw a curve ball here...

The West is not alone. Russia's feeling the terrorist threat acutely. If Bush could get Putin realy involved; seriously onboard; it'd be amazing how quick the UN and other socialist inspired institutions would jump on the band wagon; and Bush would indeed, go down in history as a Statesman, at last.



Agreed on your two points.  

While I would love to see the US and Russia become stronger allies, I am pretty sure we will be waiting a very long time before Russia and the US see eye to eye on global politics/terrorism. I hope I am wrong, but some of the Russian posters (here) give me the impression that the general public is not interested. And like here in the states if the people don't want it the politicians wont push it.
Title: al Qaeda's seven "phases"
Post by: Seagoon on August 16, 2005, 01:04:51 PM
Hi Guys,

During the twentieth century with the fall of the Ottoman Empire and then the end of Colonialism, most of the Middle-Eastern and historically Islamic Asian nations (Pakistan and Indonesia in particular) went through an Islamic revival that is still ongoing. This applies to both Shia and Sunni Islam, with the strength of the Shia revival being seen, for instance, in the Islamic revolution of 1979 that overthrew the Shah and established Iran as a specifically Shi'ite Islamic state. While there are indeed various brands of this revivalist fervor, all of them are essentially committed to achieving the same objectives commanded in the Quran and spelled out by pan-Islamic groups like the Muslim Brotherhood (Al-Ikhwan). Here for instance, is the overall plan of the Muslim brotherhood, which could easily be applied to almost every major Islamist organization on earth (indeed many have simply adopted this one) which is available online at http://www.ummah.org.uk/ikhwan/:

"1- Building the Muslim individual: brother or sister with a strong body, high manners, cultured thought, ability to earn, strong faith, correct worship, conscious of time, of benefit to others, organized, and self-struggling character  
2- Building the Muslim family: choosing a good wife (husband), educating children Islamicaly, and inviting other families.
3- Building the Muslim society (through building individuals and families) and addressing the problems of the society realistically.
4- Building the Muslim state.
5- Building the Khilafa (basically a shape of unity between the Islamic states).
6- Mastering the world with Islam."


Items 4 through 6 essentially work out this way: first the nations of the Dar-Al-Islam are purged of non-Islamic elements and an Islamic revolution brings in a new government founded on Sharia. This for instance was the objective of the Taliban, an Islamic movement that transcended the historic tribalism of the area. Then once the nations of the Dar-Al-Islam have become thoroughly Islamic theocracies, they are banded together to form the Khalifa and theoretically unified under one ruler who inherits the mantle of the prophet, this is "the Caliph." Then under his leadership the new unified Ummah completes the Jihad by subduing the world under Islam (stage 6). This is essentially the same plan mapped out in the Quran and initiated by the prophet himself, so arguing against it is going to be fruitless.

So how does one dismantle the above plan assuming of course that no matter what our differences are we are all agreed that step 6 is not something we wish to see realized?

Well, to date, Western foriegn policy has been aimed at preventing the accomplishment of stage 4 by encouraging, supporting, defending and when necessary, establishing governments sympathetic to the West and her ideals. This methodology however is proving unsustainable in the long term, and is totally ineffective when it comes to preventing direct action by terror-cells bent on moving on to step 6 before 4 and 5 are fully achieved (this is actually an ongoing argument amongst Islamic direct action groups - work towards 4,5,6 all at once or take each step one at a time.)

I would argue that the place to concentrate is actually steps 1-3. Work to prevent the ideology from taking hold and encourage the development of a different one entirely.  This, however, the west is increasingly unwilling to do for obvious reasons, even the idea of saying we can't co-exist with consistent Islam even when they themselves say the same thing is abhorent to us. In our current worldview thinking somehow even militant fascists and militant communists should be able to live together side by side in peace and harmony and love and granola.

Simply put, the Muslim brotherhood and the Pan-Islamic vision is for Muslims only, so even if you are appalled at the idea of Christian missions, think of it this way - every Muslim who becomes a Tibetan Buddhist is one less potential recruit for Al-Qaeda and one more individual whose throat they are duty-bound to slit. But if everyone becomes a Kufr (apostate) in their society, then no one is left to slit throats. Our concentration needs to be on changing the hearts and minds of the Umma and discouraging the spread of the ideology in Europe. Merely advancing "liberal" Islam won't work in the long run, if only because it has no traction amongst the common people, and because even the children of the liberal intelligentsia end up actually reading the Quran and discovering, "Hey, Mom and Dad haven't really been practicing what the prophet taught" and then going off and to learn what Islam really teaches. It isn't that Al-Zarqawi or Khamenei don't understand Islam (incidentally the disagreement between Shia and Sunni is more historical/hierarchial rather than being entirely theological), their understanding of it is actually quite developed and in their own right they are quite adept exegetes and communicators, they understand the ideology very well, but we in the West simply cannot co-exist with their implementation of it.

- SEAGOON