Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Kieren on December 08, 2000, 03:00:00 PM
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Hand recounts of all counties using the Gore standard?
Anyone wanna guess how long before this gets overturned in Federal Supreme Court?
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Well, they better start counting their tulips off. The 12th is just around the corner. I'm just in disbelief. How can any court decide that hand-counting selected Democratic counties should decide that vote of an entire state? The Dems have been preaching for weeks that they want "Every vote counted." In reality, they only want every vote for Gore counted. This whole process has become ugly and OJ-esque.
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LJK_Raubvogel
LuftJägerKorps (http://www.luftjagerkorps.com)
[This message has been edited by LJK Raubvogel (edited 12-08-2000).]
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I have said since 24 hours after the election, somehow, someway, Gore was going to get into office, whether he lost or not.
To my wife that may be reading this at work, "Told you!"
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Muahaha (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
Don't kid yerself. Bush has had every opportnuity, for the last 3-4 weeks, to have the counties HE'D like to have a recount in. He hasn't done so. Why? It's a poker game... really.
He is the leader in votes... and instead of jeopardizing that lead, he has fought against any and all recounts, in an attempt to ensure that he maintains that lead. Had he asked for a recount in the states *he* would prefer, he'd undermine his own argument. It would also have been very risky (who knows how that would have played out).
Gore couldn't ask for a recount in the entire State as it would have made the election contest a legal nightmare - trying to prove wrongdoing for every county in Florida? Nah, that's not his obligation. That's Bush's if Bush so cjose. Gore just picked the counties where he had a stronger and potentially more benefitial case.
Each side chose his strategy, and "fair" aint really a part of this game, as we've seen. If I were Bush, I'dve done exactly what he did. Likewise for Gore.
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Weird ruling by the Florida Supremes. Seems like they are just begging for a backhand from the US Supremes. It's an open can of worms...
.02
Gunthr
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The joke might end up being on the Dems after all. I just had a chance to read the ruling. There will be a hand recount of undervotes in ALL counties of Floriduh.
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LJK_Raubvogel
LuftJägerKorps (http://www.luftjagerkorps.com)
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me thinks the legislature will now act.....................
what a bunch of crap!
Eagler
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Is that right? *ALL* undervotes in the entire state? Haleluya! You mean we might actually find out who more people actually voted for? This to me is the best possible way to have it, despite the legal wranglings, and despite the outcome.
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If you're going to start worrying about undervotes in Florida, what about undervotes around the whole damn country?
I don't care if the race is close or not....it's the principle. What makes one undervote any more worthwhile than another undervote?
Fury
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Don't tell me yer all gonna start saying that even a recount in the entire state is now too slective for ya.
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Well, I still think it's crap, but at least it isn't biased towards Democratic counties. The standards they use to count votes are somewhat questionable. Statistically, counting undervotes SHOULDN'T affect the overall proportion of votes for each candidate. You would think that the number of undervotes for each candidate would split along the same percentages as the votes that were counted. [blatant stereotyping] But it seems that there are a greater number of Democrats who are either too weak to punch a piece of cardboard, or not bright enough to figure out what hole to punch [/blatant stereotyping]. (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
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LJK_Raubvogel
LuftJägerKorps (http://www.luftjagerkorps.com)
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This is so diddlying stupid. There is margin for error in EVERYTHING, ask any statistician. The undervote in Florida was by far not the highest in the country. If the Democrats are SO interested in what is fair, then in EVERY state where the election was even close, these undervotes should be visually counted. To not do so, is making the undervotes in Florida count more than the rest of the nation. WTF!?!?
And this impression BS, what a crock. How hard is it to punch out a little piece of paper? I realize that punced out pieces could still cling on, and I agree that the voter intent in this case is so obvious a blind person would see it. But a mark or impression - I think not. Since there is no set standard for judging these impressions, how in the hell is anybody supposed to make ANY sense of this.
I think dark clouds are looming on the horizon, and if what Rip mentioned about electors is true, the next 2 weeks could be some pretty intesting TV. Can you imagine, all of a sudden 3 electors who everyone thought were voting Bush all of a sudden said "Gore" when the time comes? LOL! - I'm sure a riot would ensue. Worth some laughs, at the very least, those Japanese/Korean Senate brawls always have me rolling in the ailse.
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Originally posted by Nash:
Muahaha (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
Don't kid yerself. Bush has had every opportnuity, for the last 3-4 weeks, to have the counties HE'D like to have a recount in. He hasn't done so. Why? It's a poker game... really.
Think about it, would you ask for a recount if you were ahead? (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
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Nash I might have been able to say the FSC was being fair by having re-re-re-re-counts if they had set a fair standard but this crap they handed down today is total BS.
Plus they are saying that the hand full of votes in Miami-Dade county that were done MUST count. They don't seem to care about the rest of the county just those that were counted already. Fair right?
Since they think that only their opinion matters I wished the FSC would have just stated who the winner was before the election so we didn't have to go thru all of this BS.
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Are there any statisticians out there? I'd like to see a mathmatical take on this. Taking the whole state into account, shouldn't the percentage of undervotes going to each candidate be proportional to the percentage of counted votes each got? Am I missing something here?
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LJK_Raubvogel
LuftJägerKorps (http://www.luftjagerkorps.com)
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You can do a simple analysis of the error quite easily. Just work out the percentage error that would have to exist to make a 300 vote difference be discernible after a total ballot of serveral million ballot papers. I worked it out and posted it somewhere on this BB.
It was almost infinitesimally small - a tolerance that could not exist considering the machines doing the counting.
It would not be impossible for Gore to have already won.
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"Think about it, would you ask for a recount if you were ahead?" - Rip
I *did* think about it (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif) I went on to say why Bush chose to fight the recount and further said that if I were him, I would have done the same thing. Duh, of course.
But don't think that Bush holds some real strong values about the recount process (he doesn't) - it was merely a strategic decision. It's only some of *you* who have been waving the "Recounts just aint right, dammit!" flag. Now that y'all don't have the "selective county" issue to rally behind, I'm sure you will dig up some other reason why counting votes that weren't even registered by the damn machines in the first place, should be tossed out. "Oh my god - they may be tossing out the out-of-state votes!".... Yet you refuse to understand that there are thousands upon thousands of votes that *were* on the verge of being tossed out merely because this machine...er... have you seen one of these things in action? Think Las Vegas automatic card shuffler - it's just that fast.
That's why there are *laws* mandating a second look. Yes, in Bush's own state (they aint all optical scanners), and damn near every other state, if not all of them, they have these laws. Why? Well, several thousand legislators have have spent several thousand hours examining the issue. Their answer? Because! And before you go off saying "but how can you manually divine the will of the voter?", wake up. As if this issue occured to all of these lawmakers for the very first time now in Florida. It's not voodoo. If it were as flakey as some make it out to be, it wouldn't BE law.
Now....Yegads but what's happening! Florida is upholding the law!
Anyways - Bush's posture has been merely Gore-like. ie. Purely self serving. Aint nuthin' wrong with that. Yes, and *you* guys have all been duly obsequious (the sound of polite clapping). e-mail me and I will give you the proper address to which you may send your Bush legal fund cheques. Bahhhhhh.
To borrow a phrase from our friend Hristo, I marvel at the political oppurtunism on this board. "Dammit those lefties in the supreme court are gonna steal this one! Bring in the non-biased (scoff) Florida legislature to choose the slate of electors but FAST!"
I fart in your general direction (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
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<S>
Actually, I think it's more likely that the US Supreme Court will fix this half-prettythanged FSC decision, and the Presidency will be decided there, afterall.
I can also easily visualize the US Supremes doing a Starchamber number, and deciding to end it here, for the good of the country, regardless of their individual beliefs. Of course, they just might prefer GW's philosophy anyways, and not need to go that far... One thing for sure, FSC needs a major backhand slap and a general tune-up. Political heads will roll... (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
Gunthr
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Lol I forgot about the Starchamber option.
Hey - it's already almost *that* weird now. Who knows? (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
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Erhm... just to head off any argument here... call it a preemptive strike. (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
In the great state of Texas, they count hanging chads, pregnant chads and dimpled chads. They indeed have chad bearing ballots, and they indeed have a law mandating a recount of those chad bearing ballots. As signed into law by your saviour, George W Bush.
How he could express outrage at the potential denial of a fair democratic process (out ot state votes), while at the same time attempting to deny a fair democratic process (counting unregistered ballots) is waaay beyond my understanding.
I'm being facetious, I understand completely.
---edit---
To take this right back up to the original post:
Kieren: "Hand recounts of all counties using the Gore standard?"
<sigh.....> First it was that this recount was too selective. Now that *that's* out of play, it's now some "Gore standard".
This process is playing out just exactly as was enacted/mandated by the elections branch(republican) of the Florida legislature. They created this process. This process is indeed not unlike the exact same process used in every state in the Union. Including Texas. Gore is following it.
The very recount process is playing out just exactly as was enacted/mandated by the elections branch (republican) of the Florida legislature. This process is indeed not unlike the exact same process used in every state in the Union. Including Texas. Gore is following it.
Please clarify for us, Kieren, what you mean by "the Gore standard".
[This message has been edited by Nash (edited 12-08-2000).]
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Expect more lawsuits from whoever loses, as Judge Lewis has already ruled on counting procedures. Those will be left up to the individual canvassing boards, and if you don't think those are going to be weighted to both sides (depending on the county's general preference for president), you haven't lived in Florida (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
The reason I have a problem with this is you can do it twice, with the exact same rules, and get two completely different winners. Honestly Bush probably will come out ahead, as 2/3 of the democratic strongholds have already been counted, and Dade is likely to get started first. Ensuing counts in the rural republican counties will be done knowing how much they have to make up (much like was done in Broward). Democrats will complain this is unfair, and they will be right, but what can you do?
Of course, if you read the opinions, the Florida Chief Justice is pleading for the Supreme Court to save him from his fellows on the bench.
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In actuality, Fatty, he was not pleading for the Supremes to save him from his fellows on the bench, but to save him from actually having to form an opinion on his own. That which he is <cough> paid to do. His opinion was not borne of due process, but *in spite* of it. It was actually quite a peculiar stance to take.
Not directed at you Fatty - but I cannot wait to see the folks on this board start quoting those damn Democrat FSC bastards (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
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Did you read his opinion though Nash? Here, starting on page 40 for about 20 pages. (http://washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/elections/legaldocs/flsupcourt120800.pdf) The one thing he did not do was hold back on his opinion. The criticism he had for his own court's ruling is really like nothing I've ever seen.
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And yeah, some of my fellow republicans are pretty hard core (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
I do think we'll see the Supreme Court order a halt this weekend, followed by an eventual overturn, but even if not I still think Bush will win (promting more lawsuits, those actually probably legitimate, because I can't fathom an accurate count coming out of that, it's essentially a coin flip).
If neither of those, a Gore presidency would be far better than the 2002 backlash of the Florida legislature naming its own electorate (legal though it may be).
[This message has been edited by Fatty (edited 12-09-2000).]
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Heh yah, I read the entire ruling, dissenting opinions included. I had a monster of a reply to you all ready to fire off when my comp crashed. Crushing when that happens!
Er, as an interesting aside, do you remember when Margo Kidder went absolutely insane, and was found days later living on the streets of Hollywood? The reason? She had completed her biography... her entire life story, and had only saved it to a single floppy disk. The disk became corrupt, and three years of work went right down the tube.
Anyways, yeah I reckon I'm gonna have to flesh out my vague re-reply. Not tonight though (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
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God I sucked out there tonight. I shoulda kept typing here and not even bothered to go into the MA (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
But before I finally drop off to bed, let me give a reason why the stats being proposed, this "same outcome, only larger scale" idea is flawed.
The ugly truth. It assumes that every county in Florida used the same voting procedure. It didn't. The affluent counties used optical ballots (accurate), while the less affluent were stuck with these prehistoric punch ballots. Just as we know who gets the military vote, we know who gets the vote of the less affluent. Despite seeming objections to the contrary, the poor have a right to have their votes counted, their voices heard. One damned way or another.
You all are hanging your words on technical principles, but it's wearing thin. You fear a recount for one reason. You will lose it.
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The affluent counties used optical ballots (accurate), while the less affluent were stuck with these prehistoric punch ballots. Just as we know who gets the military vote, we know who gets the vote of the less affluent. Despite seeming objections to the contrary, the poor have a right to have their votes counted, their voices heard. One damned way or another.
This isn't directed at you Nash, but this line of reporting the last few weeks has really gotten on my nerves, because it's simply not true. I hate to get into a case of "biased media", in this case I write it off simply to "lovely research."
Palm Beach, Dade, and Broward counties are not the poorest counties in Florida. They're not in the poorest half of counties in Florida. They're in fact the richest areas in Florida (per capita arguable versus Central Florida, Tampa Bay, and Tallahassee (which doesn't really count because it's too small to really be counted)). I don't know why they're using the punch cards, likely because it is cheaper, and they've had no serious problems to this point, but it sure as hell isn't due to lack of ability to fund newer voting mechanisms.
There is nothing between Tallahassee and Pensacola resembling a city, much less a school of any sort, nor is there between Tallahassee and Jacksonville. There is nothing between Tallahassee and Orlando (except Gainsville, but outside University of Florida, there is nothing there either). These are areas where I would be damned suprised if the average person has seen a high school, much less attended one, are completely overlooked because they went strongly pro-Bush.
It simply doesn't fit the model as poor areas that meant to vote for Gore but the system betrayed them. Looking at the AP county vote totals (including undervotes), Dade is at 1.4%. There are numerous counties where the undervote is higher than this, yet inexplicably these people must not have known that the Democrats are the caring ones (or they've noticed over the years that the democrats don't care). Other undercount totals:
Hendry: 8.7% (1.47:1 votes Bush over Gore)
Baker: 6% (2.35:1 Bush/Gore)
Washington: 3.6% (1.79:1 Bush/Gore)
Sumpter: 2.7% (1.26:1 Bush/Gore)
Marion: 2.4% (1.23:1 Bush/Gore)
Indian Rvr: 2.1% (1.45:1 Bush/Gore)
Also with NO undercount because they are handcounted (cannot afford any sort of voting machine) are:
Dixie: 1.51:1 Bush/Gore
Wakulla: 1.18:1 Bush/Gore
Madison: Even.
These counties don't have the vast resources of Palm Beach/Broward/Dade to bring their canvassing boards to national attention, hell if it wasn't for state highways they wouldn't even have roads. On a side note, this is where I think you're going to see some astounding Bush totals from the "recount", in a county of 10,000 people I assure you they will have no problem either morally or logisticly in finding another couple hundred Bush votes, even if they have to come up with more voters. After all full authority is granted to the canvassing board, in this case Bubba, Joe Bob, and Sue Ellen.
The mere assumption that Palm Beach, Florida, is some poor downtrodden area that the rest of rich Florida is neglecting pisses me off to no end. Not that I blame you for quoting it here, because it's reported everywhere you look, but that national media would report such idiocy without even looking at the state they're reporting on.
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Go Fatty go !!
Nash, when we want any sh#t out of you, we'll just squeeze your head (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
Eagler
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Fatty
It's simple. The areas high in old people, lower income blacks and/or gays voted for gore. Areas with mostly white men and women with any intelligence and the military voted for Bush. The rest is all spin. Sorry if that sounds bias, bigoted or racist. Not meaning too, just the truth. Now we are counting mistakes err "under votes" to choose the next president. What a bunch of crap! To me this is just the latest attempt to undermine Bush's presidency when he finally takes office, by the extreme left (left to the point of being Red), otherwise known as Democrats, who since they didn't win it outright are busy dragging someone else's victory through the mud of negative "I'm a victim" public opinion.
Eagler
.. who still has his Bush sign planted in his front yard!
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At any rate, the Supreme Court just granted a stay of the hand counting.
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What I mean specifically about the Gore standard is that Boies and the Gore team has succeeded in getting Broward to apply a standard for the hand counts they claimed had been used in Illinois. You say it is the legislature that made the standard, and that is not exactly true. The legislative standard is actually no standard at all, and you know that. It says "any indication of the intent of the voter". Well Boies and the Gore team chooses to interpret this to mean the loosest possible standards- that is, they allowed even the most microscopic mark in the presidential column as a vote. Moreover, they looked at the card and checked for party-line votes. They then assumed the person would have voted for the president in the column. As I have said before, any reasonable uncertainty could be interpreted any direction. Palm Beach chose to use what I believed to be a very reasonable standard, that is, they chose to see if there was a consistant pattern of dimples- if the whole card was dimpled, the vote counted. I, and I am sure any reasonable person would agree, believe that is completely fair. Trouble is PBC got sued by the Gore team for doing so.
That is my entire problem with the hand recount. It isn't that I care if the votes are counted, because I really think they should. But no one watching what has happened in Florida can honestly believe corruption hasn't happened in the process. Both the Republicans and the Democrats will be forced to use unethical standards if the recounts begin anew, as they will be quite certain the other side will use the loosest possible interpretation of the law to "find" votes.
This is no way to pick a president.
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...and another point, you are applying a quote from me out of context.
When I said the hand count was too selective, it was within the context of only Democratic counties hand counting. You make it sound like I was arguing against too strenuous standards in those counties. This is not true.
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How's this for irony.....Bush could actually win a state-wide hand recount. Why do you think the Gore folks only wanted re-counts in 3 VERY Democratic counties. It's not because they wanted to save all that work...hehe.
Think about..only ask for 3 democratic counties to be hand re-counted, go to Sauls asking for only those 3 counties, appeal to FSC for only those 3 counties. I bet ya Gore got just a little nervous when the FSC said state-wide.
And, I know Bush could have asked as well, that's the irony that he could actually win a state-wide hand recount.
Cobra
[This message has been edited by Cobra (edited 12-09-2000).]
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Bore and his lap dog Boise have said all along that the Floriduh Supreme Court would be the final say in this election but it was Bush and his lawyers who said to hell with your court my court(USSC) is the one that will decide it.
Guess who's court is bigger?
Still there is a chance Bore can win but it looks like a very slim one.
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Fatty - thanks, that's good info there. Yeah, when looking into the Texas punch ballot vs optical scanner areas, they were mostly in the poor areas.... but as far as Florida, your right, I was regurgitating reports from the news. I defer to you as ya seem to have a lot better handle on it.
Just throwing this out there... as a possibility for those reports (?). Do they use the same voting system for the entire county? ie, counties are made up of individual voting precincts. Lets take Miami for example - would they use punch ballots for the entire city or is it possible that the suburbs had optical scanners while the inner city etc. used punch ballots?
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The voting method varied from district to district. And there wasn't a conspiracy to place the flaky methods in certain districts as Jesse Jackson and the circus would lead you to believe.
I'm surprised the USSC was a 5 to 4 split decision. Amazing, they can't even interpret the law uniformly.
I've seen a scenario where as two sets of electors would be sent to the Senate and House. They would each choose one, setting up a tie which would be broken by the governor of Fl, Jeb, George's brother. Talk about a democratic media spinning heyday. I hope it doesn't go that route.
Eagler
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I've got a question about the 'Dimpled' chads.
Basically I'm preparing for my RAF officer selection interview, and I've got to prepare in depth analyses on six home affairs and six foreign. One of the foreign issues is the US elections, specifically the claims that the voters in Florida were confused and/or the voting system was flawed.
How many of the cards have dimpled chads, before they are punched, or are they all verified to be blemish free before use?
Cheers.
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What Eagler said Nash. I'm not positive they don't, but the ballots (items up for vote I mean) are the same within the district, so it would be silly to have a bunch of different methods for the exact same voting list. This (and the primary) was actually my first Texas vote, so you probably know more than me about outside my precinct here than I do, about all I can definitively say is we used pencil marked ballots for an optical scanner in mine (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
I think one of the reasons for the reports is the democrats really do tend to completely ignore the rural poor. The Gold Coast does have the highest population, so if you take strict numbers (as they did in justifying selecting Dade despite a low % undercount, citing a high total number), they probably do have more.
That area also tends to overshadow the rest of florida a bit in the news, and honestly part of it is probably someone looking for rationale just forgot about the state north of Orlando. This tends to piss us in the northern part of the state off a bit, as the majority of residents in southeast Florida aren't even from Florida, but that's a whole different topic (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
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Hehe yeah, we aint going there. (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
... though I got a sinkin' feeling Eagler is gonna be jumpin' all over that one...
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Fatty is correct about SE FL. Immigrants and retirees are the majority there. It's not FL to real Floridians as I. SE FL has been going downhill for the last 25 years. English is second language.
Eagler