Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Sandman on September 03, 2005, 01:43:36 AM
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Maybe it's too soon to ask such things, but you have to wonder what the local government was doing about this. They knew that a hurricane surge was probable years ago.
Anyway... have a look.
Linky (http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/convert%20to%20tables/Would%20New%20Orleans%20Really%20Floodtf.htm)
This page (http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/convert%20to%20tables/New%20Orleans%20Study%20Areatf.htm) is also interesting.
(http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/images/NO%20Study%20Area/New-Orleans-Ground-Elevs.jpg)
(http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/images/NO%20Study%20Area/NO-below-Sea-level.jpg)
...and NO, you don't get to blame Bush. The states have a responsibility to their own citizens.
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Originally posted by Sandman
...and NO, you don't get to blame Bush. The states have a responsibility to their own citizens.
AMEN Sandy.
OTOH people are acting like this could have been prevented and they KNEW exactly the path of the hurrican a week in advance.
How many roads go into NO? Not too many.
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I thought the Army Corp of Engineers had major responsibility for inland waterways, rivers, dams, locks, levees, etc?
If that's true, doesn't that make it at least partially a federal responsibility? And as I say that, I recognize the problem has existed for years, across both Republican and Democratic administrations.
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Hmmm... good question. Definitely throws a wrench into the states' rights discussions we've had recently.
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they'll get this one figured out right about when kalifonica plops into the pacific.
i'm thinking of buying land in Port Salt Lake.
If the state is gone, who's rights got violated.. errr who's responsible?
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Sandie...you mean if it is possible for people to get killed in a hurricane then we should do away with states rights and just have a huge central government?
If the state government was hiding something you sue em.. if not... shame on you for living there. Do you think the feds would ever keep something secret that might harm U.S. citizens? You really trust the feds that much?
lazs
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Look at it from the perspective that I support state's rights (which I do).
As a state, should I expect the federal government to fund upgrades and maintenance to a levee system that shouldn't have been there in the first place?
Is it realistic to blame the Army COE?
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Bureaucracy in it`s pure form.
Everyone wants the official credit when something is done. Nobody wants the resposibility in case something goes wrong.
It goes on and on for years on end.
Paper work shuffling, conflict in the ranks and departments........and the public ends up losing in every instance.
Just like the delays in getting relief in a.s.a.p. after the disaster.
Shuffle paperwork, argue over who is going to do and who has the rights, control and responsibility, but most of all who will get the credit and publicity. All this while people, our people, are dieing.
Very eye opening.
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I agree with a much earlier post. It's the French's fault for starting the city there. :rolleyes:
The COE didn't put the city there, they just tried to make a really crappy location a bit better for what has already been established.
Sandy, you're right. The Feds don't have the authority to tell a state, or city, where a community can be located absent a state of war or NATIONAL emergency like WW2 and the start of Oak Ridge.
Laz, in this case Sandy is on your side.
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The buck stops somewhere guys. You can say it's fair game if the COE's budget is slashed from 120M to 80M, while we spend $250M to build a bridge in Alaska to an island with 30 (that's 3-0) inhabitants, but something is screwy.
And yes, they knew. They knew a damn long time ago. And many of those that knew were asked to resign to avoid being fired.
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The COE can build dikes and levees but its the City and City planners / developers who pumped away the ground water causing the the city to sink in the first place.
NO isn't sinking 'naturally'. Why should the Fed government be forced to subsidize the poor choices of others?
The State and Local Government knew for years the risk a Cat 3 Hurricane or higher posed to their state and city. In NO they had no plan beyond 'go to the Super Dome' to starve and crap on the floor...
The Mayor then cries about how awful the Federal Government's response was. It was reported that only 50% of the Police in NO were reporting for duty, Firefighters and other city workers were no where to found yet its the Federal Governments fault that the savages are running wild.
Its not the Army Corp of Engineers responsibility to dole out 'common sense'.
It's a terrible thing and the Fed Government should be there to help but any blame that gets handed out ought to start fist with 'nature' and end up in the lap of those whose responsibility it was to plan for these things; State and Local Government.
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I think it's starts with the State and Local Governments, IMHO they failed to install a sense of urgency about the seriousness of the situation. If the local government at the disaster site doesn't know what is going on how do they expect the Federal Government to know? However I'm not about to give GWB a pass either. Overall, he is responsible for the safety and welfare of the country as a whole and the federal response was way to slow.
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The levy system along the Mississippi is FEDERAL property. The Corps is responsable for maintenence and upgrades. I'm sure a portion of the bill is delegated to the state, but the lion's share is federal.
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Originally posted by rpm
The levy system along the Mississippi is FEDERAL property. The Corps is responsable for maintenence and upgrades. I'm sure a portion of the bill is delegated to the state, but the lion's share is federal.
ok so lets look at this with an ounce of logic. If they HAD the funding the last couple of years would they have been able to build the levey to withstand this hurricane?
my guess is no. They've dumped millions of dollars into it over the past few years and it is what it is.
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The State and local Government knew that the levees around NO were only built to withstand a Cat 3 at best.
The responsibility to get residents to safety is the responsibility of the State and Local Government.
In NO, especially, the local government failed the residents prior to the storm hitting and they weren't any where near prepared to deal with the aftermath irregardless of what the Federal Government did or failed to do.
That's where the 'buck stops'.
fyi,
The levee system was effective except in a few places. For the most part the levees with stood more they then were rated for. Its unfortunate that they gave way where they did and I am sure that the COE will be looking at why they failed.
However, there is no excuse for the failures of the local governments. As Sandman said, 'They Knew!'.
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there's plenty of blame to go around, but the subject of the post was "they knew". Yes, I agree with you (and I spoke today with a guy who used to work in the La COE, who said as much), that it's impressive the system failed in so few places. But once it failed, it failed.
Arguing about "would the COE have been able to stop this had they the money" ultimately won't get us very far: there's no way to know for sure.
But, one thing is sure: if they had spent more time on maintaining the levy system, there would have been a better chance of making it through, especially giving the very few points at which the levees failed.
As for "who to blame" -- the levee system was built in 1927. Up until that point, NO got flooded regularly, and the silting kept most of it fairly high up. This wasn't the "fault of people" that this happened: this was our own disaster management that caused the problem in the first place. It's like blaiming the victims of forest fires in the west for building in areas where we regularly stop fires. The forest was designed to burn, but not like the way we've made it.
So, yes, we saw it coming; yes, a city that sinks below sea level is going to be a problem. but it was always cheaper to maintain a levee system and try to preserve the city that was than to condemn it, and restart the process elswhere.
As for where the buck stops; states do have powers, and in this case, certainly states screwed up, but with LA and MI, we're talking about some of the poorest states in the union; and it is a union, and in cases like this, a _federal_ agency is supposed to assume command. Yes, in the absence of leadership from above, those below are supposed to step up. But the buck has to stop somewhere. The effects of this disaster go far beyond a few southern states; what's wrong with having the whole US take the burden of coping with it?
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Im wondering if they ever had a meeting and the mayor asked.."Ok..right now a levee just busted wide open" No hurricane, just a levee. " You have 30 minutes to tell me what you are going to do about it." Did they ever have a plan?
Chances are they weighed risk vs cost and went with risk, and were caught wanting.
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Yea we can play the guessing game but they didn't reinforce the levey in the last 10 years they probably wouldn't have done so in the last two.
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This makes for a different perspective than what we hear on CNN::
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/
Congress Takes Five Days To Act, Criticizes 'Bureaucracy'
In what would be seen as irony under less-deadly circumstances, Congress took the opportunity to carp at the federal response to Hurricane Katrina after passing a $10.5B funding bill five days after the destruction of New Orleans. The New York Times reports that members of both parties criticized the relief efforts while promising hearings into supposed bureaucratic inertia:
Members of Congress from both parties acknowledged on Friday that the federal response to Hurricane Katrina had fallen far short and promised hearings into what had gone wrong. ...
Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the majority leader, who plans to go to the New Orleans area this weekend, said he had asked the committee that oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency to convene hearings so that "any lessons learned during this experience are brought to the forefront so that we may continue to be more effective in responding to any future disaster."
Before the House action, members of the Congressional Black Caucus strongly criticized the federal response to the hurricane, saying the government had abandoned many poor and frail victims, most of them members of minorities. ...
Republican lawmakers were also critical, with Representative Jim McCrery of Louisiana choking up during a news conference.
"You might note a bit of frustration in my face and in my voice," said Mr. McCrery, whose district in the northwest part of the state was spared by the storm but is struggling to deal with evacuees. "I will tell you: It is there. I am frustrated in my attempts to deal with a wide array of bureaucracy in trying to get assets on the ground."
Let's talk about poor response. Why did it take Congress five days to take action? They knew this storm went to a category 5 last week before it made landfall. No matter where it hit, it had a 100% chance of doing catastrophic damage somewhere, and by Friday it had New Orleans squarely in its sights. Congress should have been back in DC by Monday to get this bill passed and hand it to President Bush, not five days later. They couldn't be bothered to come back from their August vacation more than a couple of days early.
If CQ readers have not guessed it, a night's sleep has changed my mood somewhat. The above paragraph is more or less a parody of the criticisms aimed at George Bush, but if they apply to the President, they also apply to Congress. In fact, they simply don't apply to anyone.
When the storm reached Cat-5 status in the Gulf of Mexico, what did George Bush do? He declared the entire Gulf coast an emergency area and mobilized FEMA. Until it actually made landfall, however, he could not pinpoint the assets. Even at the last moment, the brunt of the storm hit Gulfport, not New Orleans. The levee failure came later, on Tuesday, and until then the damage to New Orleans was major, not catastrophic.
Even so, the existence of the storm off the coast of Louisiana should have prompted governments on all levels to act. What happened? The city of New Orleans and the state of Louisiana asked people to evacuate, but made no preparations to assist people in that endeavor. By Friday the outbound roads clogged with people in cars looking to escape, which all did. However, an entire fleet of school buses -- hundreds of them -- sat in their parking lots, gathering dust. Until George Bush called Governor Blanco personally and pleaded with her to make the evacuation order mandatory on Saturday, neither Mayor Nagin nor Blanco told people they had to leave. Apparently, that order only went out over the TV and radio from their press conference; no attempt was made to direct people out of their homes and onto the road.
After the levees broke on Tuesday, the situation broke down rapidly, a drearily predictable result. The two main refugee centers, the official one at the Superdome and the ad-hoc site at the Convention Center, should have been evacuated at that point. However, even two days after landfall, New Orleans had not moved its buses to high ground to keep them ready for use in case the levees broke. Lousiana's governor had not called out her National Guard units, only 25% of which have deployed to Iraq. With I-10 from the east completely unusable for vehicular traffic and the New Orleans PD completely absorbed by search-and-rescue functions, looting ran wild and order completely broke down. Nagin only ordered the PD to take on looting as a high priority on Thursday.
What did George Bush do? He had a wide area of devastation to manage. Mississippi has also sustained catastrophic damage, with entire towns destroyed, flooded, and unable to fend for themselves. He does not have the authority to call out anyone's National Guard until he federalizes the units, a move usually reserved for use when governors prove recalcitrant in mobilization. Yet within three days of the levee burst and the drowning of New Orleans, Bush had 40,000 troops entering the city to take over the management from Nagin and Blanco, delivering the aid that had waited for lines of communication to get established and the order that the NOPD and Louisiana could not maintain.
We work within a federal system, where cities and states control the allocation of resources used within their borders. We do this because we recognize that, for the most part, federalism works. Local decisions about resource allocation usually create better results than top-down bureaucratic management. The main requirement for that to work is local leadership. Blaming George Bush because he delivered results within three days of the major catastrophic event while following these rules is as silly as blaming Congress for taking five days to pass an aid bill.
The main failure in New Orleans came when the local and state governments refused to recognize that the storm had a high chance to cause catastrophic damage and use its assets to get the poor and infirm out of its way. They had plenty of resources (in vehicles) with which to do that, but left them right where the floods would destroy them. All the rest of the damage would have been mere property destruction, difficult to rebuild but nonetheless easier to accept than the unbelievable hardship we've seen this week.
However, I suspect that all of this will come out in whatever hearings get held after the rescues have been completed. In the meantime, let's continue to focus on getting assistance where needed and drop the idea of holding political events that will distract the very people conducting the emergency operations from their primary tasks. CQ readers have done a wonderful job of helping Catholic Charities, and I would encourage them to keep giving.
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Originally posted by Dinger
there's plenty of blame to go around, but the subject of the post was "they knew". Yes, I agree with you (and I spoke today with a guy who used to work in the La COE, who said as much), that it's impressive the system failed in so few places. But once it failed, it failed.
Arguing about "would the COE have been able to stop this had they the money" ultimately won't get us very far: there's no way to know for sure.
But, one thing is sure: if they had spent more time on maintaining the levy system, there would have been a better chance of making it through, especially giving the very few points at which the levees failed.
As for "who to blame" -- the levee system was built in 1927. Up until that point, NO got flooded regularly, and the silting kept most of it fairly high up. This wasn't the "fault of people" that this happened: this was our own disaster management that caused the problem in the first place. It's like blaiming the victims of forest fires in the west for building in areas where we regularly stop fires. The forest was designed to burn, but not like the way we've made it.
So, yes, we saw it coming; yes, a city that sinks below sea level is going to be a problem. but it was always cheaper to maintain a levee system and try to preserve the city that was than to condemn it, and restart the process elswhere.
As for where the buck stops; states do have powers, and in this case, certainly states screwed up, but with LA and MI, we're talking about some of the poorest states in the union; and it is a union, and in cases like this, a _federal_ agency is supposed to assume command. Yes, in the absence of leadership from above, those below are supposed to step up. But the buck has to stop somewhere. The effects of this disaster go far beyond a few southern states; what's wrong with having the whole US take the burden of coping with it?
The Federal Government can can only come in and help after the disaster.
Its the responsibility of the Local and State Governments to do what is necessary to protect the lives of its residents.
The Federal Government couldn't order evacuations, the Federal government couldn't send troops door to door telling folks to evacuate.
The issue with disasters isn't the physical property damage its the affect on human residents. There was plenty of time to make contingency plans for this very type of disaster. It has been talked about hurricane season after hurricane season.
Had there been a mandated evacuation and a plan in place to make that happen (even if it required help from the Federal Government) on the local level then the affect on the resident could have been better managed.
The post disaster Federal response will always be 'slow' after all the Feds are reacting to what has occurred not preparing for it. The feds can't prepare for every possibility around the entire country. That is the job for State and Local Governments.
The Local and State Governments failed to do what was necessary in the years prior. That is where the 'buck stops'.
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I heard a good quote today. I'll paraphrase. Many people want to compare this releif effort to those of the tsunami. Truth be told it's much different. THIS disaster is more like conducting a releif effort DURING a tsunami.
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A lot of you are operating on severe misconceptions. Here is a link to a basic history of the Mississippi.
Levee History (http://www.nd.edu/%7Eadcirc/pam.htm)
You'll note that New Orleans was there a helluva long time beofe the levees were erected.
Here is another link I posted days ago about slosh models and the planning we took for the fictitious Hurricane Pam.
Slosh Model (http://www.nd.edu/%7Eadcirc/pam.htm)
Now, we have been prepping for just this event. Where we failed was predicting that the water would rise higher than it actually did leaving survivors. You want the cold hard facts? We predicted dead in the 100k's.
Another reality for the uneducated, since you are not working the help down here. The sheer immense amount of effort it takes to get help in New Orleans is frightfully daunting.
Getting the huge number of people evacuated, getting food and water to them. Dealing with devasted areas in other parts of the state and sharing resources with Miss. Having the people you are trying to rescue shoot at you are all factors in slowing down the process.
And let me tell you about the State getting citizens out before the storm. Do you realize how much of a big deal it was for Mayor Nagin to call a mandatory evacuation. Do you realize how many close calls we had where storms were aimed for us and veered off.
There are only 3 main routes out of New Orleans, all across water. Furthermore, St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes have to evacuate too, they are southeast N.O. Can you comprehend the amount of the traffic required to get out vs. the number of people, close to 1 million.
Do you realize you never have a true accurate picture of where a storm will hit.
Factor in all that stuff, then factor in there are people that just won't go no matter what you do. Comeon, Charmaine Neville crying on TV with the Bishop is an f'in joke. She had the means to leave prior. I guarantee you a huge amount of those people did, and I guarantee you a portion stayed behind for the looting opportunity.
Sometimes you guys need to stop playing at being the expert and do a little research.
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Originally posted by Maverick
I agree with a much earlier post. It's the French's fault for starting the city there. :rolleyes:
the french built on high ground.
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And let me tell you about the State getting citizens out before the storm. Do you realize how much of a big deal it was for Mayor Nagin to call a mandatory evacuation. Do you realize how many close calls we had where storms were aimed for us and veered off.
There are only 3 main routes out of New Orleans, all across water. Furthermore, St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes have to evacuate too, they are southeast N.O. Can you comprehend the amount of the traffic required to get out vs. the number of people, close to 1 million.
Do you realize you never have a true accurate picture of where a storm will hit
I don't know who are talking to but I live Florida. I don't need to hear about 'close calls' and all that. This was a record breaking storm.
I don't care how much pressure the NO Mayor was under or the Governor. They need to step up and make the decisions and not get on TV after the fact whining and blaming other folks.
I have 'evacuated' many times. Evacuation need to be properly planned and ordered in sufficient time. A plan needs to be developed that accounts for the poor etc...
You don't need to know the exact location of land fall, a storm that big even if its close would have been devastating.
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Goth,
Not all of us are unfamiliar with what the situation is and how damn hard it is to get things done in this kind of situation.
BTW again for hanging in there.
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Lets not forget how many roads go in and out of New Orleans.
http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=29.959694,-90.154495&spn=0.330612,0.551205&hl=en
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New Orleans is not unique in the world. Theres plenty of other places built below sea level. All under threat due to climate change. there will be more NO's sadly and increasing in frequency too. Whtever is done two things need to happen. We all need to get serious about limiting carbon emmisions and real strategy needs to be put in place now to cope with the eventual disasters that are bound to happen.
Nature is doing a good job of killing us along with our help. I wonder why we are spending so much trying to kill each other in wars. We ought to be spending that money to try and limit the damage the climate is doing shouldn't we?
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Originally posted by Skydancer
We all need to get serious about limiting carbon emmisions
"If" it's proven that Mars is experiencing global warming which doesn't have humans interfering with the climate., reducing carbon emissions is not going to solve the problem.
http://www.mos.org/cst/article/80/9.html (http://www.mos.org/cst/article/80/9.html)
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Originally posted by Skydancer
New Orleans is not unique in the world. Theres plenty of other places built below sea level. All under threat due to climate change. there will be more NO's sadly and increasing in frequency too. Whtever is done two things need to happen. We all need to get serious about limiting carbon emmisions and real strategy needs to be put in place now to cope with the eventual disasters that are bound to happen.
Nature is doing a good job of killing us along with our help. I wonder why we are spending so much trying to kill each other in wars. We ought to be spending that money to try and limit the damage the climate is doing shouldn't we?
Work up a master plan and present it to large industry leaders around the world.
I`m sure you will get a warm welcome. :)
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US Coast Guard rocks!!
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Originally posted by Sandman
Maybe it's too soon to ask such things, but you have to wonder what the local government was doing about this. They knew that a hurricane surge was probable years ago.
Anyway... have a look.
Linky (http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/convert%20to%20tables/Would%20New%20Orleans%20Really%20Floodtf.htm)
This page (http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/convert%20to%20tables/New%20Orleans%20Study%20Areatf.htm) is also interesting.
(http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/images/NO%20Study%20Area/New-Orleans-Ground-Elevs.jpg)
(http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/images/NO%20Study%20Area/NO-below-Sea-level.jpg)
...and NO, you don't get to blame Bush. The states have a responsibility to their own citizens.
Spot on Sandy.
Also, it was pretty good common knowledge that the levees would sustain a Cat. 3 hurricane. it was a feat of engineering that ONLY 3 of them gave way.
The pisser about Katrina was this. The Storm was always a "High 4 - Low 5 Hurricane". But something very rare (and thus unfortunate) happened, the Storm Surge was STILL Category 5 strength even though the storm was downgraded to a 4.
Karaya
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Originally posted by Skydancer
We all need to get serious about limiting carbon emmisions and real strategy needs to be put in place now to cope with the eventual disasters that are bound to happen.
I'd ask you WTF you are talking about, but I'm afraid you'd answer.
It's unfortunate that some are politicising this event.
If you want to discuss the theory of human induced global warming, start another thread.
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2 words ...
"Fill dirt "
And thats all I have to say about that.
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Well if you establish a city below sea level, by a large body of water, you are asking for trouble. Period. It may be an old city but that doesn't mean you couldn't move away from it. Bulldoze and start over.
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Originally posted by Lazerus
I'd ask you WTF you are talking about, but I'm afraid you'd answer.
:rofl
You will not be allowed to board Sky`s peace train with that attitude young man.
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Originally posted by airbumba
US Coast Guard rocks!!
Thats for sure, it was refreshing to see them get back to what should be their primary mission...SAR, they were first in and nobody does it better!!!
shamus
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How is talking about the environment politicising? just wondering!
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Back from Vacation ( along the new waterfront property in Salt Lake I might Add) and I just had to chime in here.
Alot of speculation here. How many of you chiming in have spent years on a planning commission in a flood plain? None? Ok, well then I might have a different perspective. I have.
West Sacramento. We have a 200 year MINIMUM levee system. It increases but there is a minimum standard. Downtown Sacramento has Less than our city, but that's a different (and funnier) story.
As we built our general plan, we strived to make sure that we understood the inherent flood risks, and repercussions of developing over 7,000 acres in between the Sacramento River and Deep Water Channel. A flood hazard. Our development plans Mandated a flood improvement system and secondary egress routes prior to any development.
Mind you, NO is Years Older than our tiny little community, but we had the will to tell the developers that there would be No building without the protection that would be required. We didn't Want the development, but if it was coming, it had conditions.
NO didn't. Plain and simple. They have created a welfare dependant society with a weak leadership that has done nothing but create a "whoa is me" midset and "I am owed" mentality. They were short sighted, spending several generations of leadership staying in power instead of leading.
It is pathetic to know that basic common sense did not tell this LOCAL administration, and past generations, that building 12 feet BELOW Sea Level at the foot of a major river would be a Bad Idea. I have read their Hurricane Emergency Egresss Plan and it Clearly States that the evac of the city is dependant on Personal Vehicles. The leadership in NO is At Fault if anyone is inclined to point a finger. We, at the City Level, are tasked with the development and Protection of the citizens, we don't look the other way, then blame WhatEver administration is in Federal Office at the time. That is Lame, Cowardice, and in total breach of their charter as a city or State.
It is Beyond appaling to see these nimrods blaming anyone. Be it the idiots who failed to heed over a WEEKS warning to Leave ( a Days walk would have given them dry land, forget the "didn't have gas" BS) and the Governor who Failed to Plan for or allow development with No Improvements who is now trying to create a Racist slant to the Feds not stepping in to do HIS fuggin job.
This is the Extreme Left failing to have a clue. I have the utmost respect for many Democrats, but this mindset of It's Someone Elses Fault is going to take the NO disaster and magnify it 10 fold.
A hurricane is coming, Run, run now, get the hell out of there. If you chose to stay, don't even Think about blaming anyone except your Stupid Idiotic Brain for your problems now. There are No Roads, No Rail, No Fuel and Morons are shooting at the ONLY ones who are trying to get in. What, you aren't getting your butt saved Fast Enough??
(Kicks soapbox and walks away shaking head)