Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Ripsnort on September 30, 2005, 11:17:58 PM
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Cause of Death and lifetime odds. Interesting, I have a better chance of dying from an asteroid impact than fireworks.
Now, why do you suppose heart disease is #1? In-n-Out? ;)
Heart Disease
1-in-5
Cancer
1-in-7
Stroke
1-in-23
Accidental Injury
1-in-36
Motor Vehicle Accident*
1-in-100
Intentional Self-harm (suicide)
1-in-121
Falling Down
1-in-246
Assault by Firearm
1-in-325
Fire or Smoke
1-in-1,116
Natural Forces (heat, cold, storms, quakes, etc.)
1-in-3,357
Electrocution*
1-in-5,000
Drowning
1-in-8,942
Air Travel Accident*
1-in-20,000
Flood* (included also in Natural Forces above)
1-in-30,000
Legal Execution
1-in-58,618
Tornado* (included also in Natural Forces above)
1-in-60,000
Lightning Strike (included also in Natural Forces above)
1-in-83,930
Snake, Bee or other Venomous Bite or Sting*
1-in-100,000
Earthquake (included also in Natural Forces above)
1-in-131,890
Dog Attack
1-in-147,717
Asteroid Impact*
1-in-200,000**
Tsunami* 1-in-500,000
Fireworks Discharge
1-in-615,488
SOURCES: National Center for Health Statistics, CDC; American Cancer Society; National Safety Council; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; World Health Organization; USGS; Clark Chapman, SwRI; David Morrison, NASA; Michael Paine, Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
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Odds of you living through life?
1-0.
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well, I've already had cancer at 30. I'm 40 now and figure that any time I have left is just a bonus.
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Now, why do you suppose heart disease is #1? In-n-Out? ;)
No,
Because of the conversation you have 2 or 3 months later resulting from just a little poke before covering the mushroom.
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I don't see the listing for when your head explodes from getting so upset because you got HOed in AH. Or when someone does not fight the way you want him to.
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What are the odds on winning teh powerball?
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Now, why do you suppose heart disease is #1? In-n-Out? ;)
try to exercise 4 times a week (rather than 3), and look for wealthy food, and your on the safe side, trust me,
hey even In-n-Out works much better and longer then! trust me here too ;)
what i wonder about is the snake bite, it comes after
the lightning strike? goes it depends where you life.
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Absolute number one cause of death, birth. Life is a condition with a 100% fatality rate. You have been warned.
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Oxygen is poisonous. ;)
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Originally posted by Pooh21
What are the odds on winning teh powerball?
I don't know about Powerball, but the odds of winning MegaMillions is 1 in 175,711,536
http://www.ohiolottery.com/games/mega/mega_odds_payouts.html
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"Wealthy Food?"
Whut.. Lobster and Snails?
;)
The catch to life... nobody gets out alive.
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Sometimes the news reports “fireworks” death and injuries when some moron gets blasted by his own homemade explosive device. Not professional displays or legally bought fireworks.
The interesting part about the asteroid impact; that stat is not based solely on how often people have been killed by asteroids. The real risk is that when the big one comes it will kill us all.
eskimo
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A guy less then a mile from me blew himself up this Forth of July because he made a home made firework.
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two things about the death by assault by firearm..
your chances are about 10 times less if you have no criminal record and... your chances are 7 times less than even that if you defend agaisnt any assault if you are armed with a firearm and male... 5 times less if you are female.
Takes much less effort to defend against assault with firearm (right areas, don't hang out with gangs or be a criminal or sleep with other mens wives etc) than it does to defend against heart disease.
lazs
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If I only live 75 years instead of 78 because I ate In-N-Out, oh well. At least I ate some good food instead of some lamer protein shake from GNC that you will either poop out or piss out because your body only absorbs what it needs.
All hail the Double-Double!
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Umm.. the odds for an asteroid impact can't be right. How many instances of people dying to one do you know?
Is any impact expected in near future?
How many people died in a tsunami recently? And we know another one can appear to any of the several large earthquakes per year.
So either they know something that the general public doesn't or the numbers are way off.
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Originally posted by MrRiplEy[H]
Umm.. the odds for an asteroid impact can't be right. How many instances of people dying to one do you know?
Is any impact expected in near future?
How many people died in a tsunami recently? And we know another one can appear to any of the several large earthquakes per year.
So either they know something that the general public doesn't or the numbers are way off.
A big one killed a few million trees in Russia a few decades ago; it probably took out a few lumberjacks too.
As far as tsunamis go, you have to weigh how many die each year on the average against how many don't die; most of the world survives.
eskimo
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Originally posted by Mathman
If I only live 75 years instead of 78 because I ate In-N-Out, oh well. At least I ate some good food instead of some lamer protein shake from GNC that you will either poop out or piss out because your body only absorbs what it needs.
All hail the Double-Double!
Also need to consider lost function because of disease -- which IMHO is much more important an issue than length of life.
The issue with most lifestyle choices (like diet, cigarettes, exercise) isnt lost years of life but rather how messed up your last 10-15 years get to be. And the people with higher risk lifestyles are much more likely to be the ones woth multiple hospitalizations, multiple meds, and serious life limitations as they get to that last decade...
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Originally posted by Simaril
Also need to consider lost function because of disease
That woudl be stroke ... the number one cause of disability.
Everybody on top of their blood pressure?
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Originally posted by myelo
That woudl be stroke ... the number one cause of disability.
Everybody on top of their blood pressure?
110/79 :aok
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Originally posted by myelo
That woudl be stroke ... the number one cause of disability.
Everybody on top of their blood pressure?
Important to realize that ALL vascular disease -- whether stroke, heart attack, heart failure, or amputation -- is a variation on a theme.
Although heart attack is the #1 killer, all vascular disease has the same risk factor list (in rough order):
cigarettes
high blood pressure
high "bad" LDL cholesterol
diabetes
lifestyle
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Life long odds are good, but to get anything really useable, you gotta factor in risk groups and demographic factors.
For instance:
The number one cause of death amongst skydivers aged 20-45 is skydiving. There's 1 fatality per 1000 skydivers annually.
The number one cause of death for BASE jumpers, same age group, is BASE jumping.
The number one cause of death amongst people who primarily tend their gardens, age 60-80, is probably not gardening.
So it's nice to know the general stats, but if you want to see an "immediate picture", ya gotta factor in who you are, what you are doing and so forth. Only then can you get something that relates directly to you and your particular circumstances.
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Bah! I plan to live forever.
So far so good...
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Originally posted by StSanta
Life long odds are good, but to get anything really useable, you gotta factor in risk groups and demographic factors.
For instance:
The number one cause of death amongst skydivers aged 20-45 is skydiving. There's 1 fatality per 1000 skydivers annually.
The number one cause of death for BASE jumpers, same age group, is BASE jumping.
The number one cause of death amongst people who primarily tend their gardens, age 60-80, is probably not gardening.
So it's nice to know the general stats, but if you want to see an "immediate picture", ya gotta factor in who you are, what you are doing and so forth. Only then can you get something that relates directly to you and your particular circumstances.
Santa!
Yer alive!!
Good ta hear from yah, yah miserable beyatch!
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Asteroid Impact* 1-in-200,000**
Tsunami* 1-in-500,000
...
SOURCES: National Center for Health Statistics, CDC; American Cancer Society; National Safety Council; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies; World Health Organization; USGS; Clark Chapman, SwRI; David Morrison, NASA; Michael Paine, Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
Last year a hundred thousand or so died in a tsunami. The last asteroid impact killing a human? Google is still looking....
I wonder if any of the other stats are screwed up?
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Mathman, help us out with what these odds mean.
Is the implication that 1 in every five deaths world-wide (or is it nationwide) is attributed to heart disease?
The numbes don't ring true if this is the interpretation: specifically, there certainly isn't one legal execution for every 58,000 deaths.
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What about "Natural Causes"...or "Old Age".
What are the odds for those?
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Falling Down
1-in-246
Last time I fell down I didnt die, I dont think...
Originally posted by Ripsnort
Planetary Society Australian Volunteers
Volunteer to die ?
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Heart disease, stroke, etc. are considered "natural causes".
Hardly anybody dies of "old age". The natural lifespan of humans is about 120 years. Most people get some fatal disease before then.
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I still don't understand how these odds are computed.
I'm convinced that most people's odds of drowning are much, much higher than of being killed by a firearm. But not according to this.
I can also pretty much guarantee that I will not perish as the outcome of a legal execution. Without researching actual statistics, I figure the number of people who die in the US in any given year is measured in the millions. Compared with three or four that are executed. Over a lifetime, I'd intuitively say that odds of being executed are in the 1/1,000,000 order of magnitude, not 1/50,000.
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Originally posted by myelo
Heart disease, stroke, etc. are considered "natural causes".
Hardly anybody dies of "old age". The natural lifespan of humans is about 120 years. Most people get some fatal disease before then.
This post piqued my curiosity. Please define death by "old age".
Where did you get the stat that the human lifespan is 120 years, since it seems to me that anyone living past the century mark is rather rare and somewhat newsworthy.
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Here's some more:
Odds that a person between the age of 18 and 29 does NOT read a newspaper regularly: 3 to 1
Odds that an American adult does not want to live to age 120 under any circumstances: 3 to 2
Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1
Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1
Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1
Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1
Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1
Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1
Odds of being killed on a 5-mile bus trip: 500,000,000 to 1
Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1
Odds of being killed in any sort of non-transportation accident: 69 to 1
Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1
Odds of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1
Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1
Odds of getting away with murder: 2 to 1
Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 20 to 1
Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1
Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1
Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1.3 to 1
Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 3 to 1
Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 25 to 1
Odds of being born a twin in North America: 90 to 1
Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 117 to 1
Odds of being audited by the IRS: 175 to 1
Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1
Odds of dating a millionaire: 215 to 1
Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1
Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 220 to 1
Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 250 to 1
Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1
Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 22,000 to 1
Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try: 10,000 to 1
Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 11,000 to 1
Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1
Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 60,000 to 1
Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1
Odds of spotting a UFO today: 3,000,000 to 1
Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1
Odds of winning the California lottery: 13,000,000 to 1
Odds of becoming a saint: 20,000,000 to 1
Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 182,138,880,000,000 to 1
Chance of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10.
Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820
Chance of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380
Chance of dying from an assault: 1 in 16,421
Chance of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585
Chance of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666
Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524
Chance of dying in an explosion: 1 in 107,787
Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000
Chance of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000
Chance of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107
Chance of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319
Chance of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035
Chance of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000
Chance of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000
Chance of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377
Chance of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000
Chance of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325
Chance of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564
Chance of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000
Chance of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556
Chance of dying from being bitten by a dog: 1 in 700,000
Chance of dying from contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325
Chance of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477
Chance of dying from a mountain lion attack in California: 1 in 32,000,000
Chance of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000
Chance of having a stroke: 1 in 6
Chance of dying from heart disease: 1 in 3
Chance of getting arthritis: 1 in 7
Chance of suffering from asthma or allergy diseases: 1 in 6
Chance of getting the flu this year: 1 in 10
Chance of developing schizophrenia: 1 in 00
Chance of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000
Chance of dying from SARS in the United States: 1 in 100,000,000
Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2
Chance of an American woman developing cancer in her lifetime: 1 in 3
Chance of getting prostate cancer: 1 in 6
Chance of getting breast cancer: 1 in 9
Chance of getting colon / rectal cancer: 1 in 26
Chance of beating pancreatic or liver cancer: 1 in 9
Chance of beating thyroid or testicular cancer: 9 in 10
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By 'eck, with odds like that it's a wonder any of us are still alive.
(http://www.onpoi.net/ah/pics/users/209_1081438631_swoop.gif)
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Originally posted by Gunslinger
Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 11,000 to 1
Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1
Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1
They give out maybe 100 Academy Awards every year. The Medal of Honor has been given to a handful since Vietnam.
At least one of that pair of odds is incorrect.
There are 280 million or so Americans, only 1 president. 280,000,000 to one is more like it.
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280 million to 1 isn't correct either. You'd have to figure the odds of dying before reaching 40, then subtract that number from the population at the very least.
:p
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Originally posted by Godzilla
280 million to 1 isn't correct either. You'd have to figure the odds of dying before reaching 40, then subtract that number from the population at the very least.
:p
But even that isnt correct, because we're looking at lifetime odds, not annual likelihood.
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Originally posted by myelo
That woudl be stroke ... the number one cause of disability.
Everybody on top of their blood pressure?
200/125 ? :confused:
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Mav,
At a certain age, all mammalian cells undergo an orderly shutdown of function that ends in death of the cell. This is called apoptosis and is an inherent feature coded in the cell’s genes. There are several theories as to how this all works, but the point is there is a predetermined maximum lifespan for cells so that at a certain time, even in the absence of any injury or disease, the cell is going to die – die of “old age.”
The average human lifespan varies a lot with things like socioeconomic conditions and health care. In ancient Rome it was about 25 years. Now in most developed countries it’s about 80. But it’s around 40 in some regions.
But the maximum lifespan – how long the very oldest person lives – has stayed the same throughout time and geography. It’s right about 120 years. A fair number of people live to be 100. Almost nobody lives past 120. So that seems to be the inherent natural lifespan of human beings.
That’s not to say we can’t possibly change this. If we can figure out how to alter the underlying mechanisms of aging, such as apoptosis, we could conceivably change the rate of aging.
For example, there is a gene in mice that controls apoptosis. Mice that have a certain mutation in this gene live much longer than normal.
But they also get more cancer than normal. This suggests that apoptosis and death itself may have evolved as a protective mechanism against cancer.
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Originally posted by myelo
This suggests that apoptosis and death itself may have evolved as a protective mechanism against cancer.
Predetermined suicide as a defense against cancer?
okay....
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Originally posted by myelo
Mav,
At a certain age, all mammalian cells undergo an orderly shutdown of function that ends in death of the cell. This is called apoptosis and is an inherent feature coded in the cell�s genes. There are several theories as to how this all works, but the point is there is a predetermined maximum lifespan for cells so that at a certain time, even in the absence of any injury or disease, the cell is going to die � die of �old age.�
I thought our cells regenerated and created new cells. Does the function breakdown where new cells are not created when we get older or??
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Some of our cells divide into new cells, but there are limits. Cut your skin and skin cells divide to fill in the cut. Cut off your hand, and that hand ain’t growing back, unless you’re a starfish.
But even cells that divide a lot still undergo apoptosis at a certain age.
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Originally posted by Gunslinger
Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1
lol, ive got that card once!
I doubt the the value is correct, it depends on how often you play poker.
If you never play poker your chance decrease dramaticaly ;)
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Myelo,
You still did not define death of "old age". You discussed cellular disfunction but not a specific cause of death that is "old age". Heart failure could very well be a specific cause of death in almost every case of a "natural death" as every dead person no longer has a heart beat.
Secondly the post I was referring to about the lifespan was the term you used. You did not state MAXIMUM life span but the term used was NATURAL lifespan. Given the use of the term "natural" that implies that it is the norm, hence natural, rather than the rather scarce exception it seems to be.
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after reading through this my brain did that 'flash' thing.. and I was off on a different tangent.
In polite circles that would be a thread hijack... but i digress.
All the talk of dying of old age, impersonal statistics...
who in hell want's to die looking like a science project.. resperators, heart stimulators, blood machines...
I mean even gettin old is getting old... to livin things up they invented viagra. oh, whoopeee.. what a huge drag that turned out to be. Now you can re-discover what a lousy lay the wrinkled up old hag yer livin with was. Can't women ever let yah forget.. even that?
Afterwards, yah still got a 5 hour 56minute stiffe. Imagine sittin on the couch in yer robe with an iwo jima flagpole in yer lap, watching the demise of professional golf. Don't fall asleep if you have a cat.
Quit torturing us old people.. just give us one pill. If you take it, you go to sleep stoned and boozed, and yah just don't wake up.
(i'd slip it in the old ladies late night tea and claim I lost mine)
I now return the thread to it's original topic.