Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Ripsnort on February 24, 2006, 08:14:09 AM
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Do you believe that the current chaos and inevitable civil war in Iraq is in Iran's best National interests?
And,
Do you believe that Iran may have sponsored blowing up the Golden Dome in order to achieve total chaos?
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iraq, currently holding roughly 50% of the planet's known crude reserves and the large shia population in the south there is a good chance that the s h i i te population (moronic language filter MP8's idea no doubt) would welcome the iranians and the iranians would welcome the southern oil fields. iran stands a good chance of being successful, they would also secure their northern border from any US led attempts to invade iran. what do they have to lose?
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Iran and Iraq fought a pointless, vicious, bloody war for 8+years. They despise each other. Keep in mind the tribal mentality of these people...they don't go from ancient enemies to butt-buddies overnight.
You can bet that Iran is loving every minute of this. And a collapse is certainly in thier best interests...if they can capitalize on it. With the US and allies having such a presence, they probably can't. Had we pulled out prior to this, Iran would have been across the border within hours. Guaranteed.
Civil war is not inevitable. The risk is high, but no way is war a given. Even today, the news reports that across the country, Iraqi clergy on both sides are calling for (and seeming to get) peace and quiet. Even that homicidal lunatic al-Sadr has started to figure out that blowing up fellow Muslims won't do him any good. A new daytime curfew also seems to have quieted things down for a few hours.
Sponsored or planned the mosque bombing? Who friggin' knows. Entirely plausible...but, then again, it seems like of you get any two Muslims (at least in that part of the world) in a room, and they'll just as likely butcher each other as embrace. <<--NOTE: This is an exaggeration, used to make a point.) Could Iran have done it? Sure. But, so could any number of crazies running around the sand.
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There are probably competing interests in Iran over the conditions in Iraq.
There is the revenge thing for the First Gulf War (Iran-Iraq....Iraq vs U.S. considerd 2nd Gulf War over there.....). Revenge, feuds, and blood oaths/debts cross generational lines over there for many people. Plus, Iranians are mostly Persian, not Arabic like Iraqis.
There have been agents from Iran helping the Iraqi Insurgency with funds, training, and materials, as well as other agents from Iran encouraging the Shia on the political front..... could be coordinated efforts, but more likely competing interests in Iran with different goals.
Seeing the possibility in 2003-2004 of a neighboring Iraqi government being friendly toward the U.S. and alowing basing rights in Iraq had to make for....strong opinions... in Iran, especially after finding out they were part of the "axis of evil" (prior to *that* ***(personal opinion of speech deleted)*** State of the Union speech, there had actually been some inroads to normallizing relations between the US and Iran to the point of talk of reopening the US embassy in Iran.....doh!).
So, be it a choice of a U.S. ally or a raging civil war on their western border, I'd guess they'd pick civil war and try to profit by it in some way.
As to the Gloden Dome.....I don't see it as Iranian, that's one of their own holy sites IIRC in Sunni-dominated Sammara (used to see it in the distance while on convoys along Sammara bypass), and there have been large numbers of pilgrams from Iran visiting holy sites all over Iraq since the borders have been opened......It could have been the Insurgency, it could have been the extra-national terrorists, it could have been funded by Jordanian or Syrian or Saudi sources.....
I haven't really been following the news too closely in the states on it. I found very little in common in the details of national news reports as compared to what I was actually seeing on the ground during my tour in Iraq. News media is concerned with ratings and catchy talking points and keeping it simple for the lowest common denominator of viewer...... real world is far more complicated.
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Get em pissed off at eachother and let em go at it:)