Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: StSanta on September 28, 2000, 12:58:00 PM
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With the Danish referendum on whether to join the European Monetary Union almost complete, I get an urge to make a few comments on democracy (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif). This is the sixth referendum Denmark has had regarding European affairs and once again the consequences might be felt outside our borders.
First, let me say I felt empowered by voting. I consider it as much of a priviledge as a right. It's a theory that actually works in practise (well, somewhat) and it's the great equalizer; the wealthy businessman is as powerful as the beggar on the street. This appeals to me.
Polls suggest a dead race - the nay's currently have it with 50.4%, the ayes have 49.6%. Denmark is deeply divided on this topic and there are some interesting trends.
Amongst educated people, the ayes have it by about 73%. Amongst women, around 70% vote no. Men tend to vote yes. Those who vote yes are, according to statistics, mostly unemployed, pensionists, extreme wing party members and others that fear joning the EMU will somehow compromise our very generous welfare state, and fear loss of "Danish values" and that there'll be a United States of Europe.
Voter turnout has been, as always, very high, with an estimated 90% of voters actually voting.
With that background, I think there are some apparent flaws - like dragging nearly half the population into/out of something. With the huge difference between educated and non educated people in terms of how they vote. With the nay sayers asking their voters to vote with the heart, not with the mind.
Luckily in this country voter turnout has traditionally always been high - but tere are other nations, the defender of democracy itself for instance, where voter turnout is quite low - and that leads to a whole new set of problems.
How representative is democracy? What *exactly* does it represent. The wishes of the majority of course. But with a race like this one, one really wonders about the tyranny of the majority. This race has also illustrated a division between the educated and the non educated - with the latter being more prone to fall for emotional, rather than factual, arguments. Which begs the question; a nation might suffer because of it. It is analogous to saying no to a new system that, for the sake of the argument, could save say 1000 additional lives. And saying no based on feelings. A similar argument could be made about saying yes.
Which leads us to the question of meritocracy - i.e letting the decision fall to those with expert knowledge. In questions where no decisive expertise can be found, a general election would be held. Obvious flaws here that I won't discuss, but meritocracy does have its merits (pun not intended).
How to resolve these issues? YOU tell me (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif).
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StSanta
JG54 "Grünherz"
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Some comments:
1) The people with the education are voting solely on merit of the measure and are in no way, shape or form voting on the impact to them and their status, standing or whatever. Things like higher taxes for the poor.. lower for the rich (or vice versa) would never be seen as a conflict of interest
2) I've often noticed that the educated people of the world are about as unable to agree on anything just as the uneducated.
3) Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.
4) What does that say to those that are no longer able to vote? What is their role in your new society?
5) How long has it been since your country has had a revolution?
AKDejaVu
[This message has been edited by AKDejaVu (edited 09-28-2000).]
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Do the Danish live in a representative republic? Personaly I think, at least here in the USA that the population doesn't understand democracy. Thank God we don't have a true democracy or the slaves probobly wouldn't have been freed. I'd probobly vote NO to that issue just because I wouldn't want another governing body ruling over my life, which is exactly what the power brokers have in mind I bet. That does little to further your individual freedom or liberty, and would probobly lead to a new form of taxation.
Uneducated voters I fear are going to hurt the USA in the next 10 yrs or so. They tend to believe the "experts" (more like propagandists to me) on any issue and vote the way the media portrays an issue. Here's an example; In '95 the Republicans tried to reduce the rate of growth of medicare from a 17% anual increase in funds to only a 12% increase. Well the democrats, helped by the mainstream media, called them "drakonian cuts" and said the Republicans were actualy trying to kill old people. The scary part about it is that it worked. People were either too stupid, ignorant (that word used extremely lightly) or too partison to realize that a 12% increase in spending is NOT a cut.
Don't it just suck being a pawn (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/frown.gif)
Udie
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Democracy - a word in the dictionary between "dildo" and "dissidence".
Fl. Adm. Mason.
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Democracy - a word in the dictionary between "dildo" and "dissidence".
Fl. Adm. Mason.
Figured it was navy brass. Air Force brass knows how to spell just a tad bit better (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
AKDejaVu
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Deja
Agreed on #2. In this specific case though, there was a clear cut gap between the educated and uneducated, however.
#3 is one of the reasons why I dislike religions.
Non voters would have any role, except as voters. As it is now.
Hm, last revolution? <thinks> A GOOD while back. Cannot recall.
At any rate, the referendum turned into a no, leaving the long term consequences to be somewhat undesireable. The far right pseudo-nazi People's Party who managed to somehow get immigration and other stuff into the debate claim they were the cause of the victory, and the extreme left wing claim the same. The five parties making up the government (all of whom where "yes" parties) will now have a job of trying to figure out what their voters want before the next referendum.
Udie, yet another governing body is one of the arguments used by the no sayers here. But, the fact of the matter is that our Krnoe already is tied to the Euro in terms of inflation etc, we already have cooperation deals in place etc, and this referendum wasn't on more EU government, but on a common currency. The debate unfortunately was turned into a debate about something else than this.
At any rate, I'll live with it. Our money look sorta cool (some of them have holes in the middle (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)), and nothing much will change.
Thanks for responses guys.
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StSanta
JG54 "Grünherz"
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I hear you, StSanta. I've often wondered about the vote of the majority. It's definitely a compromise, because someone has to lose. I big part of the problem is that we live as nations with very specific political systems. What would need to happen is that we'd all need to actually, and literally, get in each other's minds. I know, sounds ludicrous, but think about it. What better way for me to know where you're coming from then to actually feel the totality of your mind from within my mind? If we could actually know how and why a person feels a certain way from the core of their mind, their whole life experience, we'd probably do away with most forms of conflict.
I truly believe we are beings of compassion, but the fact that our minds are locked within our skull is a big inhibitor. If we could somehow put ourselves in another person's shoes, I feel it would change things dramatically. Political systems would be obsolete. A lot of things would be obsolete.
Just me pipe dreaming. If I smoked pipes.
(http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
[This message has been edited by leonid (edited 09-29-2000).]
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Leonid, your dream is my dream too.
And i think somethink can be done, just trying to be sensitive(sp?) with others.
<S>!! Leonid (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
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hehe, mi amico, Naso! <S>!!!
I was expecting to be burned alive from the very first response, but I see it will be delayed just a little bit.
(http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)
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Well, the Danes (smart people, obviously, at least 53% of them) have voted (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif). Another smack into Euro's face. (me - male, educated, finance manager to boot and anti-Euro; just hoping that roadkillters won't sway majority of Brits when the time comes)
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lynx
13 Sqn RAF
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Originally posted by -lynx-:
Well, the Danes (smart people, obviously, at least 53% of them) have voted (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif). Another smack into Euro's face. (me - male, educated, finance manager to boot and anti-Euro; just hoping that roadkillters won't sway majority of Brits when the time comes)
Hmmm.... Let's see....
Short rate for Danish Krona...up 50 b.p. (Danish Central Bank intervention) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
10yr. Danish bond up 25 b.p. (Market Driven) up to now..... (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
Danish Krona quotation down despite Danish Central Bank intervention...... (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/redface.gif)
Still too early to judge, IMHO, but given the first signs, I think danes have hit Euro in his own face.
Unlike the Maastricht referendum (a no there coulde have ruined the EU process), a referendum wether a currency of a country that adds about 2-3% of EU's GDP should be converted to Euro or not have no major real consequences on Euro. The big "problem" with Euro is the difference in Growth rate between U.S. and Europe. Besides that, weak Euro is helping exports only to a cost of importing inflation. Given a low inflation landscape, not too much to worry about.
P.S. How about your short term finance costs being 50 b.p. higher because the smart people decides so? Just for your information: borrowing kroner in euromarkets for 12 months is costing (now) 0'75% more than in the single currency zone. 2 year govt bond spread between Germany and Denmark is going to widen 20 b.p. aprox. Go ask Carlsberg A/S, Novo Nordisk A/S and the like... (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/eek.gif)
Cheers.
Pepino.
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Well, the Krone is tied to the Euro anyhow, so that argument falls a bit short.
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StSanta
JG54 "Grünherz"
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Do you guys have to spend so much time on European polotics? I mean isn't the O'club for talkin guns and the US presidential race?
Show some respect people!
(http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
Udie
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There is no tie between krone and Euro but the one that the Danish Government is willing to pay.
It is a market driven relationship.
Do you remember the ECU? 6 currencies, then 12 tied up in virtue of respective governments agreements? To cut a long story short, ECU was killed because there were not more than formal ties between countries, without a single monetary authority, and market didn't believe their economic figures and political willingness to act as one. After a while, each government was not able to stand what it would have taken to keep the flotation range within limits (limits already widened, btw).
Danish Krone quotation is driven by:
a) Danish Interest Rates
b) Danish economic situation
c) Danish Central Bank Open Market Intervention
a) Danish Interest Rates have been increased.
b) Denmark '00 expected growth: 2%, vs. 3.4% EU zone. Althouth Denmark is a prime inflation fighting country, and It has no Budget Deficit so far, 1.4% growth gap between them and EU is too much to sustain quotation, caeteris paribus.
c) Danish Central Bank has spent $5.5 billion to peg Krone to Euro in the first eight months of this year. This means roughly $1.000 per citizen.
The main question is wether is better for a nation being part of a bigger entity or not. As I posted before, It's still too early to judge but (and IMHO), countries like Denmark, U.K., and, in general, small "liberalized" developed countries, should be integrated in free market-single currency area. The loss in sovereignty and in control is vastly inferior to the benefits that boost in commerce would provide. In practical terms, that means single monetary authority and single fiscal authority. In the long run, It's difficult to think that these measures will not lead to political unity.
"Ties" between currencies don't work but for a short period of time. There is no way to tie two currencies but to create and run single authorities. Otherwise political developements would create divergences, sooner or later, and thus break those ties.
Cheers,
Pepino.
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Cońo, Pepino, no sabia que hablaras chino (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
al menos, suena chino a mis oidos (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
hehehhe <S>
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Originally posted by Udie:
Do you guys have to spend so much time on European polotics? I mean isn't the O'club for talkin guns and the US presidential race?
Show some respect people!
(http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
Udie
LOL Udie, good one (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) !!!
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Originally posted by RAM:
Cońo, Pepino, no sabia que hablaras chino (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
al menos, suena chino a mis oidos (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif) (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
hehehhe <S>
LOL!! (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
Pura envidia de los ingenieros aeronáuticos de la BBS... (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
Por otro lado, toda argumentación en economía tiene su contraria....casi siempre tan válida como la original. Ahhh! las ciencias sociales....
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Translation:
Pure envy about aero engineers around this BBS. (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
On the other hand, any economic theory has its opposite...most often as right as the original one. Ahhhh! Social sciences...
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Saludos,
Pepino.
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yo no entiendo tres carajos la situacion con lo del Euro. Creo que tengo que dejar la novia y ponerme a leer (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
por un momento llegue a pensar que era algo bueno, pero aparentemente mucha gente no esta de acuerdo.
me podrian informar de los pros y contras?
estoy interesado.
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Before you can talk about Pros & Cons, you have to talk about requisites:
- Unified monetary policy: This means single central authority to design and execute monetary policy. There is a some level of debate wether this authority (i.e. European Central Bank, or ECB) should focus on inflation control (there is also debate on what magnitude should be the objective when talking about inflation control: M3 control, liquid assets control, Monetary supply control...), currency stability or growth. IMHO, inflation should be its main concern, since low inflation is a precondition of currency stability and growth.
- Freedom of Capital Flows: This means no restriction whatsoever (of course given they are legal ones) for money transfers.
- Unified Fiscal Policy: Tightly linked to Monetary Policy. It is essential to avoid competitive advantages among countries (i.e. unfair competition).
- Removal of commercial barriers: Freedom of commerce. This means no customs among countries, no special taxation on trade in the unified area.
Pros:
- No currency risk among countries in the unified area (better for commerce and financial safety for both providers and consumers)
- Currency no longer a country's commercial weapon (no competitive devaluations)
- Price transparency improves (better for competition).
- Greater market scoop (Means more consumers, more demand, increased competition)
- Stronger position against third parties (Better trade agreements, in general)
Cons
- Loss of sovereignty (dunno if that's the correct word). Each country renounces to control tools (currency quotation, interest rates, fiscal policy) in their individual commercial relations with the world in favour of some ethereal supranational organization (currently). Also to counter economical cycles, where they rely on the ECB for monetary policy matters and on the central fiscal policy maker (yet to be created in Europe, shoud it ever might be).
- Loss of regional focus. As the size increases, local problems are less and less evident, and, thus, solutions are kind of "coffe for all".
- In Europe, we have lots of very different cultures. Perhaps the most evident one is southern vs. northern countries. These disparities are difficult to tame, but, on the other hand, they give you some open mind attitude that I, personally, find very positive. Yet, as to economical integration, it's a hurdle.
From my point of view, the pros are far more important than the cons but, again, these are not mathematical concepts but social ones and, at the very end, all depends on people's attitude, since the baseline decissions are taken on a poll basis. And people tend to be very emotional when you talk about your country (go ask RAM, for a good example).
Cheers,
Pepino.
[This message has been edited by arhurb (edited 10-06-2000).]
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Thanks Pepino.
I think I'm not gonna try to make a strong opinion about the matter. It is a very interesting change that can and WILL affect Europe drastically, and obviously, the rest of the world.
But I dislike people who make really strong opinions about matters that do NOT concern their country and doesnt affect them directly, and dare to argue with the people who will be affected directly.
However, I'm gonna say a few things about this, correct me if I am wrong of course:
The change sounds beautiful and very romantic, but if it bombs, it can be a potential catastrophe for many European countries. I believe a united Europe is possible without countries losing their individuality (this will NOT happen) dont try to compare to the US wich was formed by states that most were not even 100 years old, and had no history going back millenia. However, a strong sense of patriotism will make people reject the Euro (isnt this whats happening) because of the feeling that they are taking something away from them.
Overall, its a change that can be a GOOD THING of executed correctly by the book (something that rarely happens) and it can also be a disaster.
This is what I understand so far (under the influence of alcohol, mind you).
I will not make strong opinions on the matter.
animal
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#3 is one of the reasons why I dislike religions.
Don't underestimate the government's role in this. And don't underestimate the role of the "educated" in this too. Does the name Pol Pot ring a bell?
Non voters would have any role, except as voters. As it is now.
Is a voter that chooses not to vote the same as a person that is not allowed to vote? Are both simply "non-voters"?
When you remove the right of an individual to vote, you remove his right to be a citizen. Welcome to the class structure. Welcome to a revolution.
AKDejaVu