Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Makarov9 on July 10, 2006, 09:57:42 AM
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"Japan Considers Strike Against North Korea"
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,202752,00.html (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,202752,00.html)
Them boys play for keeps.
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Well... the last time the Japanese chose to strike first it didn't turn out so well for them.
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the last time the japanese struck first they didnt have the US as an ally :rolleyes:
come on sandman, think deep :aok
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im sure that south korea is shiating kittens right now... japan fires rockets at N Korea, south gets invaded for it.. ha ha ha.... all the North is looking for is a reason to invade the south.. ha ha.. hold on kids, its going to be one heck of a ride.
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You have no chance to survive make your time.
This IS going to be, uh, VERY interesting.
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That is not what was said. The headline from the original AP story that has been paraphrased and copied by other press is quite a reach, intended, I assume, to sensationalize this.
The issue Abe spoke to was a refresher on the constitutional and policy issue in general. Many people have forgotten, or are unaware, that Japan has had a policy that a pre-emptive strike against an imminent attack that could not be stopped after initiated was established in 1956, not now.
The issue he wanted discussed was that Japan has no capability to act on that policy, regardless of what nation it could be. Japan has no offensive capability to meet that requirement.
Discussing and addressing the question of building that capability, and framing it around the unusal constitutional situation and perception of the public in Japan, was his point.
Oh, how I hate the press more and more...
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Originally posted by 101ABN
im sure that south korea is shiating kittens right now... japan fires rockets at N Korea, south gets invaded for it.. ha ha ha.... all the North is looking for is a reason to invade the south.. ha ha.. hold on kids, its going to be one heck of a ride.
south korea has a 900,000 man army, well trained, well equipped, and WELL FED....HA HA.
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Originally posted by john9001
south korea has a 900,000 man army, well trained, well equipped, and WELL FED....HA HA.
In the position they are in that`s sort of like having a parking lot full of Vettes and Harleys with no gas anywhere in sight.
A little well laid Kaboom on launch sites and manufacturing facilities and it would be like stirring an ant`s nest up. Bunch of running around in circles and not much else.
Right now N.K. is playing e-bay, waiting for higher bids.
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I just saw the following on the English language portion of a South Korean website:
“Seoul ‘Won’t Back UN Sanctions on N.Korea’” http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200607/200607100017.html
Based on that, and other indications that the South Koreans are rather more fond of their psychotic brethren to the North than they are of us (e.g., http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=9632) it would seem the smart move for W might be:
a. To utilize this rupture as a justification to (quickly!) remove US troops from South Korea; and
b. To fully back Japan on this issue.
This would convert an almost insoluble operational problem (how to defend South Korea without horrendous US casualties) into a mere technical exercise (how to destroy any missiles/aircraft/canoes or whatever that the aforementioned NK nutjobs might lob at Japan). It would also have the eminently satisfying effect of dumping the whole North Korea mess squarely into the most interested laps (South Korea and China).
Firmly backing Japan in the Far East may be very similar to backing Israel in the Middle East: most of their neighbors hate them like poison, and for the same reason (the neighbors got their collective butts handed to them in the past). Much the same could be said for Turkey in their little corner of the world (and probably with better reason: Imperial Japan acted a lot more like Ottoman Turkey vis a vis the neighbors than like Israel). However, the smart money would probably be on any one of those three versus any collection of thugs from the same neighborhood.
My two cents, FWIW.
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I love Cox & Forkum
(http://www.coxandforkum.com/archives/06.07.05.PaperBullet-X.gif)
http://www.coxandforkum.com/
actually political cartoons go along ways to establish any type of mood. Funny how that happens
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The stories I read said Japan was asking the UN to take action, up to a pre-emptive strike. Not that they were planning anything themselves. I'm sure they've talked about it, but as Rolex pointed out they dont have the hardware necessary to effectively carry out an attack on another country. Besides that, I'm not exactly sure how their Constitution is worded (Rolex?) but I'm pretty sure they'd have to rewrite it to allow them to attack someone, even if they felt it was in self defense. Right now I believe that defense of their homeland is actually defined as being within their own borders.
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Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan is a "No War" clause. It dates from 1947.
ARTICLE 9. Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.
In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.
All the more reason why this is going to be interesting to watch.
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Money on Japan ( backed by the US of course)
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Read it carefully though, they renounced WAR. Not the right to defend themselves, and thats how they've interpreted it over the years. Japan has well trained troops, a equivalent to our Coast Guard, and an air force as good as anyones ............ if you only consider fighters.
Plus they now have those new anti-missile missiles they have been developing jointly with the US Navy. I dont know how many they have, but I have to think its enough to handle whatever handful of missiles N. Korea could lob at them. If the N. Korean govt. was stupid enough to actually try to hit someone with one of those things that is. Even China wouldnt let them hide behind their skirts anymore if they actually tried to attack someone with one of those missiles. Right now China is about the only friend they have.
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Originally posted by StarOfAfrica2
Read it carefully though, they renounced WAR. Not the right to defend themselves, and thats how they've interpreted it over the years. Japan has well trained troops, a equivalent to our Coast Guard, and an air force as good as anyones ............ if you only consider fighters.
Plus they now have those new anti-missile missiles they have been developing jointly with the US Navy. I dont know how many they have, but I have to think its enough to handle whatever handful of missiles N. Korea could lob at them. If the N. Korean govt. was stupid enough to actually try to hit someone with one of those things that is. Even China wouldnt let them hide behind their skirts anymore if they actually tried to attack someone with one of those missiles. Right now China is about the only friend they have.
That may be all they want to do is to shoot a few down. Missiles that is. That might be enought to enstill some national pride and save some international face.
I would probably agree with a concesous that Japan WILL NOT attack pre-emtively in any attack because the constitution forbids it and the people wont support it......not to mention what do they have to fight with.
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I remember reading (not exactly sure where) that N.K. has an estimated 2-5 nukes
it was also unclear wether they were strictly missile warheads or bombs.
Tactically its alot smarter for them to have any nukes as a bomb to be carried by a fighter/bomber A/C since their missiles leave much to be desired at this time.
All them anti-missiles systems are effectivly useless against a bomb "lobed" into japan.
As for S.K. 900,000 stong army add 1 N.K. nuke....well alot less than 900k i should think
as stated previously this will be VERY interesting to watch!
so many intricate and different variables.
I have found that asian tactics and stratagy very intriuging.
I read a janes defense artical a few months back (ill try to dig it up) that played out a scenerio where N.K. test fired a missile and "intentionally" had it malfunction so that the west and actually the rest of the world assumed that they couldnt effectivly launch a nuclear warhead at a target such as japan or even the west coast of the U.S. when in fact they could.
the artical gave several outcomes after such an event. True N.K. vs the U.S. in a nuclear exchange would loose BUT, at what cost? and would the U.S. retailiate with nuclear weapons knowing that N.K. probably had only 1 shot?
It goes on about different lines of thought but, at the end the real kicker was this "The idea of faking a failed missile test launch is the kind of think the N.K. would think up to catch everyone else off gaurd"
And consider this they test fired 4 missiles? And ALL of em failed?
1 long range and 3 med range missiles?
kinda seems coincidental to me. I still think there was more to the story than what was reported.
1 Missile test fired and failing...yeah i can see that easy but...4? :O
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First off, while a lot of this is being hyped by the press, there a few things that are different than the usual and predictable unpredictablity of the Kim Jong-Il and his father. The offspring is using the same tactics his father used, since they have always worked. Not always worked well, but worked good enough.
Being a raving lunatic leader displaying choreographed media events to further the image that his subjects are raving lunatics who will happily give their life for the raving lunatic has always been met with negotiated face saving for the lunatic, and under the table currency/trade to feed the starving lunatics.
He always looks like the savior. Keep someone starving then distributing even small amounts of food will raise you to Messiah material.
The things that bother me are:
1. A new breed and path of leadership in Japan. Koizumi has always been a domestic politician first and last, to the bitter end, and much of his power is derived from the right wing in Japan. The right wing in Japan is nothing like the right wing in any other country. These are guys who are still fighting the war and still believe in the divinity of the emperor. Scary stuff.
The man divorced his pregnant wife decades ago because the party told him to. She wasn't any good at campaigning because she had two children and a third on the way.
He is so dedicated to himself, that he has refused to even meet the adult son who was born after the divorce. Now that is a politician...
Abe, the likely successor, is reported to be, and shows all the traits of, a dunce. If you think President Bush may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but likeable, this guy Abe looks like an unlikeable butter knife.
Literally, the guy is so below average intelligence that you could pick anyone off the train and he'd be smarter than Abe. But Abe has all the traditional hallmarks of leadership potential for Japan: A family history of politics and support from the right wing still fighting the war.
Most of the Japanese leaders in the past 50 years have been at least practical. Some were scoundrels, like all countries, but practical scoundrels. They knew enough to let behind-the-scenes negotiation be the real solutions and sprinkling some money around is easy. It's only money and you can print more of it. Let the country get on with the business of Japan, which is doing business.
So, I'm not too happy about Abe because dunces can be easily led. Something tells me that he is being led by the nose right now. It could be internally, externally, or both.
2. The Foreign Minister, Aso, is truly a scoundrel. He is pushing for offensive capability... to use defensively. The problem with Aso is his history. His father ran a lethal mining company during the war. Lethal for the allied POWs who had to work as slaves there in horrendous conditions. They were starved, forced to work in the most dangerous mines where no paid worker would go and were beaten and abused and left to die if they became ill or injured. Aso is still part of the family business and is one of the extremists who insists Japan was fighting a just cause. He and his family have shown no remorse over their history and actually seem to enjoy tweaking the noses of Koreans and others in Asia by throwing out insults to them that fly in the face of reason and history.
What scares me about him is that he is smart. Smart extremists are scary - dumb ones can be toppled off their nonsense horses.
This guy makes Secretary Rice look as tough as Aunt Bea in fluffy slippers and an apron.
3. The constitutional question will likely become moot. Article 9 will likely be changed soon and it has only been words anyway. Japan has the 4th largest military budget in the world. Not bad for a nation with no military.
What it lacks is long range offensive capability - missiles. It has plenty of tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery, fighters, destroyers, etc.
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So what will happen? I won't make any predictions, but I don't like the increase in risks that come from having a dunce and blinkered extremist making foreign policy. People are more likely to get killed when that happens.
I think Korea is doing their usual saber rattling and expect to get something in return - food, respect, money... they're not doing anything different than they have always done.
The talk of strong economic sanctions will only exacerbate the problem. Sanctions just don't work as intended.
North Korea may have a few devices and they would most likely work. Delivery ability is sketchy, as shown by the missile tests. I think Dear Leader's son is tweaking Americas nose a bit and enjoying it. But I don't believe that he is lunatic enough to commit suicide by actually trying to deliver one. He's too much of a hedonist.
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Japan has one of the worlds most modern Navies, second only to the USN in the Pacific region.
It has a sizable, well trained air force.
Both with modern weapons and systems.
Although I doubt Japan would consider a strike on N. Korea any time soon, for all the obvious geo-political ramifications, dont dismiss them as some paper tiger. They are not.
I would also be carefull about assuming that they had no capability to hit N. Korean missile sites if they really wanted to. They have combat ships, subs, and fighters capable of air refuelling.
Read:
http://www.afa.org/magazine/june2005/0605japan.asp
Map:
http://z.about.com/d/geography/1/0/l/3/ja-150.gif
The last paragraph of the article is illustrative:
For years, Washington has been prodding its quiet ally in the Pacific to finally step forward into the ranks of the great powers. The time has come, US officials insist, for Tokyo to assume responsibilities and duties in the region and around the world that are more commensurate with Japan’s great wealth and influence. Now, the message coming back across the Pacific, while characteristically softly spoken, is nevertheless unmistakable: “We’re ready.”
...or to parahprase "All Your Taepodong Missile Bases Are Belong To Us"
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I hope nobody shoots back at NK...
At least until I'm out of here.
Sucks to live within range of long-range artillery.
Yea we're "ready to fight tonight" but that doesn't mean we really want to.
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so rolex...you are saying that the japs are not too far away from bayoneting babies and forceing korean women into prostitution again?
I guess that would not be much of a leap....lots who did that are still alive today.
lazs
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Originally posted by eagl
I hope nobody shoots back at NK...
At least until I'm out of here.
Sucks to live within range of long-range artillery.
Yea we're "ready to fight tonight" but that doesn't mean we really want to.
Where are you at over there?
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Originally posted by eagl
I hope nobody shoots back at NK...
At least until I'm out of here.
Sucks to live within range of long-range artillery.
Yea we're "ready to fight tonight" but that doesn't mean we really want to.
If the poopy hits the fan do you get to jump back into a fighter or do they hand you a rifle and a shovel, and you just keep doing what your doing now?
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I'm at Osan AB, just a hop, skip, and a jump South of Seoul. If the shxt hit the fan, my job would be general purpose butt-boy action officer. That means my current job has no wartime equivalent so I'd get tasked as a generic staff officer.
If I lived more than a few minutes after fights-on, that is.
The fighter squadrons are fully manned so it's highly unlikely I'd be reassigned to a flying job, unless something unusual happened and they had to bust all the normal assignment rules.
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Originally posted by GtoRA2
If the poopy hits the fan do you get to jump back into a fighter or do they hand you a rifle and a shovel, and you just keep doing what your doing now?
Sorry but there's somthing sort of funny/scary when I hear USAF/Officer/rifle/shovel all in the same statement.
NOT to say that Eagl is "one of those types"
BTW eagl I've thoroughly enjoyed having a couple of USAFA cadets here for their summer internship program. Great bunch of kids! 10 more days till I get my hat sir :aok
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Good to hear they're sending cadets out there.
I think I'd do just fine with a rifle and shovel if necessary, but I'd rather leave that to the experts.
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Originally posted by Rolex
...Japan has the 4th largest military budget in the world. Not bad for a nation with no military.
What it lacks is long range offensive capability - missiles. It has plenty of tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery, fighters, destroyers, etc...
We know all about Japan's military gear. We have seen it in the movies and it does nothing to stop godzilla on a rampage.
...aim for the eyes, dammit.
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Yea, but those lightning shooting tanks are bad-ass.
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Originally posted by Furious
We know all about Japan's military gear. We have seen it in the movies and it does nothing to stop godzilla on a rampage.
...aim for the eyes, dammit.
Phhfttt! That was back in the days before the highly classified Stepford Zillaette project.
:D
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MechaGodzilla could withstand a N. Korean nuke. :aok
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Jeeze, like south korean's needed another reason to dislike Japan.
South Korea is one place a soldier can go downrange without leaving his quarters.