Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: lukster on August 17, 2006, 09:51:07 AM
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Does anyone else think it's a bad idea for the Lebanese army to become entwined with Hezbollah? If Hezbollah is not disarmed what happens the next time they decide to incite fighting? How will Israel distinguish between Hezbollah and Lebanese regulars? I'm confident that Hezbollah would like nothing better than a full scale war between Lebanon and Israel. Looks like they may get it.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,208837,00.html
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Originally posted by lukster
Does anyone else think it's a bad idea for the Lebanese army to become entwined with Hezbollah?
Ya think?!! This is blatantly obvious.
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I think it's a bad idea but there isn't much alternative. . The Lebonnese army is still rife with religious splits between christians and islamists, and almost certainly been infiltrated by hezbollah. There's (at best) very little chance that the Lebonnese government can actually exercise control in the area. By the time the UN gets boots on the ground it will be too late to be effective and if the UN follows its SOP's the UN force will be ill-equipped, badly coordinated, and have a mandate, structure and ROE that aren't consistant with the situation. Round 2 is very nearly inevitable IMO.
asw
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I think they were already intertwined. I mean how do thousands of men in a "militia" move thousands of missiles and rockets around within a tiny country like that without there being some degree of interraction? In fact I'm willing to bet that Hez-ebola is a better fighting force than the Lebanese army and that the army, if not directly complicit, is actually afraid of Hez-ebola themselves.
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Originally posted by detch01
I think it's a bad idea but there isn't much alternative. . The Lebonnese army is still rife with religious splits between christians and islamists, and almost certainly been infiltrated by hezbollah. There's (at best) very little chance that the Lebonnese government can actually exercise control in the area. By the time the UN gets boots on the ground it will be too late to be effective and if the UN follows its SOP's the UN force will be ill-equipped, badly coordinated, and have a mandate, structure and ROE that aren't consistant with the situation. Round 2 is very nearly inevitable IMO.
asw
it is splits between muslims that has caused the greatest degree of strife. sunni's v. shee-ites. (had to spell it that way...it *** the correct spelling lol) it all stems from the mandate by the league of nations which gave control of the government to one sect (can't remember which anymore) that had the greater population. when the population density switched civil war became inevitable. it is still a major part of the problem with syria interceding in lebanons affairs pretty consistantly since then.
add isreal and voila. instant blood fued, hatfield and mccoy style in a country which was once the jewel of the mediterrainian.
if i recall correctly the druze muslims and the christians tend to be small fringe elements that serve only to create more trouble without actually being the major cause.
anywho.
we still have the west to thank for this craptasticness, as we are the one whose great grandparents decided that it was up to them to draw a bunch of meaninless lines on foreign soil and decided to instill a ridiculously complex and disbalanced system of government on a people who had no real familiarity with western traditions and idiocies and whose destinies should have been left well enough alone.
just my .o2 there on the end. but i think the former is at least close enough to accurate.
88
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Originally posted by Edbert1
In fact I'm willing to bet that Hez-ebola is a better fighting force than the Lebanese army and that the army, if not directly complicit, is actually afraid of Hez-ebola themselves.
I'm willing to bet you're right about the fighting ability of the Lebonnese army and its fear of the hezbo's. And while parts of the army almost certainly were/are complicit with the hezbo's, I'll bet parts of the army aren't. I have a hard time thinking of the Lebonnese army as a national organization, I think of it more as a conglomeration of civil-war falanges all wearing the same suit for convenience sake.
asw
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the Lebanese people have made their support for hizbullies perfectly clear. Next time there is a fight chances are good Beruit is going down and with that, Syria and Iran will attack Israel and Israel will destroy them or be destroyed, drawing the United States in and then Russia and China will fall behind the arab nations and..........
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I'm thinking that both Syria and Iran will see Israel fighting the Lebanese army as a legitimate excuse to intercede. They need justification to avoid denouncement and involvement by the rest of the world.
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Originally posted by JB88
it is splits between muslims that has caused the greatest degree of strife. sunni's v. shee-ites. (had to spell it that way...it *** the correct spelling lol) it all stems from the mandate by the league of nations which gave control of the government to one sect (can't remember which anymore) that had the greater population. when the population density switched civil war became inevitable. it is still a major part of the problem with syria interceding in lebanons affairs pretty consistantly since then.
88
True. That split between sunni (the ones who got the nod from the west) and shi'ite islam is, as far as Iran is concerned, what this past month has been about. For Syria I think it was about getting a little payback for being thrown out of Lebannon and a little showing the Lebonnese that they "need" Syria's involvement.
asw
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The Lebanese army is just the uniform portion of hezbollah. Kinda like letting the fox guard the hen house and bring friends too. Lebanon is just a tool and is owned by hezbollah.
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well, at least if that is indeed the case, they will be in uniform and easier to spot.
i don't think that is entirely true however. as i understand it, there has been an upswell of lebanese who would like to see the syrians and thier hezbollites sent packing.
imagine what it must do to thier national identity to be constantly at war due to the meddling of others.
remember, it was the PLO who brought on the first isreali occupation of lebanon for the same reason (shelling on the border) and the sentiment in lebanon eventually soured to thier presence.
lebanon was once a very progressive society.
and lets not let iran confuse us with thier religiosities. these are the persians, the descendants of saladin and the greater persian empire. these are the ones that the europeans fought for the land that is now modern isreal time and time again.
thier extremism is as much nationalism as it is anything else and we shouldnt allow ourselves to believe any differently. religion is how they are riling up the poor and uneducated.
eventually the lebanese may just get fed up and fight back within thier own ranks to reclaim thier own nationalism. that would be our best bet.
the palestinians are not exactly loved amongst arabs, and the iranians are not even arabs, so there is always hope that they will stop letting thier unruly friends visit so long.
just my 2 again.
88
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JB,
Story on the news last night. Camera and crew in lebanon in the areas smashed by Isreal. It was the hezbollah folks out there acting as disaster relief, looking over damages and giving money, supplies and aid to the population, NOT the Lebanese government. They wqere acting like regualr insurance disaster agents and were promising a check in 48 hours for the damages. One individual who lost a home and business was on camera saying that hezbollah was there, the governent wasn't and that they trusted hezbollah more than thier own regular government to take care of them.
Like I said hezbollah owns lebanon. In the case shown on last nights news they were buying it right out from under the government.
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Originally posted by Maverick
JB,
Story on the news last night. Camera and crew in lebanon in the areas smashed by Isreal. It was the hezbollah folks out there acting as disaster relief, looking over damages and giving money, supplies and aid to the population, NOT the Lebanese government. They wqere acting like regualr insurance disaster agents and were promising a check in 48 hours for the damages. One individual who lost a home and business was on camera saying that hezbollah was there, the governent wasn't and that they trusted hezbollah more than thier own regular government to take care of them.
Like I said hezbollah owns lebanon. In the case shown on last nights news they were buying it right out from under the government.
yup good PR for them considering they started all of this.
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Originally posted by Gunslinger
yup good PR for them considering they started all of this.
Ahem... weren't the kidnapped Israelis captured in Lebanon?
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Originally posted by lukster
Does anyone else think it's a bad idea for the Lebanese army to become entwined with Hezbollah? If Hezbollah is not disarmed what happens the next time they decide to incite fighting? How will Israel distinguish between Hezbollah and Lebanese regulars? I'm confident that Hezbollah would like nothing better than a full scale war between Lebanon and Israel. Looks like they may get it.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,208837,00.html
Not a perfect situation, but its prolly the best one.
Four ships including the one i served on is now getting ready to deploy to lebanon when they get the go. They will operate under UN command, but only if the UN gives the OK to shoot at anyone shooting at them or threatening them without having to ask anyone for permission first. They will enforce a blockade of weapons and ammunition bound for lebanon. A dangerous deployment but a good one.
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I wonder how many know that hezbollah are chiite lebaneses ?
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Originally posted by Sandman
Ahem... weren't the kidnapped Israelis captured in Lebanon?
Thats debatable, Hezbollah says they were in Lebanon, Israel says they were in Israel. Considering Bozon's(?) information in another thread where he says Hezbollah attacked along a wide area to distract and slow down the Israeli response, I am thinking the Israelis were on their own side of the border in this instance.
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Originally posted by Nilsen
Not a perfect situation, but its prolly the best one.
Four ships including the one i served on is now getting ready to deploy to lebanon when they get the go. They will operate under UN command, but only if the UN gives the OK to shoot at anyone shooting at them or threatening them without having to ask anyone for permission first. They will enforce a blockade of weapons and ammunition bound for lebanon. A dangerous deployment but a good one.
Something tells me the UN isnt going to give that kind of permission. Could be wrong, strange things DO happen sometimes.
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Originally posted by Elfie
Something tells me the UN isnt going to give that kind of permission. Could be wrong, strange things DO happen sometimes.
They have hinted at giving such a permission, but nothing is set in stone yet.
When the same squadron escorted ships thru Gebraltar last year under enduring freedom or whatever it is called, they had such a permission.
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Originally posted by Maverick
The Lebanese army is just the uniform portion of hezbollah. Kinda like letting the fox guard the hen house and bring friends too. Lebanon is just a tool and is owned by hezbollah.
Yup, hezbollah is analogous to the National Guard and supposedly supplement 'some' of the regular armys pay to ensure loyalty from specific units. This all amounts to a hezbollah re-supply mission.
And to think.. we US taxpayers fund what?, 75% of the UN (United Nutless)... a total waste of $$.
It's all been very stupid with an amazing lack of common sense... The Lebanese govt was neutered by the hezbollah long ago, yet its the collective wisdom of word 'leaders' to put the nutless in charge AGAIN... ok, sure..
However I have full confidence the UN mandate will be to hang out & watch hezbollah, die in the cross fire, then leave and let the natives kill eachother.
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Originally posted by x0847Marine
The Lebanese govt was neutered by the hezbollah long ago, yet its the collective wisdom of word 'leaders' to
Israel stopped customs etc payments to the Palestinian government making the situation worse. Palestinian military and police amongst others did not recive paychecks because of this. I doubt that helps anyone except hezbollah.
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Originally posted by Sandman
Ahem... weren't the kidnapped Israelis captured in Lebanon?
The Hizbos dispute the location of the border. If you accept the UN mandated "blue line" as the official international border then the soldiers were captured on the Israeli side. The Hizbos say the true border is inside of what most of the world recognizes as Israeli territory, that is where the confusion is coming from.
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Originally posted by Nilsen
They have hinted at giving such a permission, but nothing is set in stone yet.
When the same squadron escorted ships thru Gebraltar last year under enduring freedom or whatever it is called, they had such a permission.
Let's hope they do give permission, to do otherwise is just silly.
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Originally posted by Edbert1
The Hizbos dispute the location of the border. If you accept the UN mandated "blue line" as the official international border then the soldiers were captured on the Israeli side. The Hizbos say the true border is inside of what most of the world recognizes as Israeli territory, that is where the confusion is coming from.
IIRC Israel had the UN define the border so there wouldnt be any dispute over where the border is or should be. Besides Hezbollah, who else thinks the border is incorrect?
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When I heard that the lebanese army was going to be sitting on the southern border, the first thing I thought of would be that they are great targets when (not if) hezbollah attacks again.
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Letting the Lebanese army watch Hezbollah is akin to Ted Kennedy operating a 'DUI checkpoint'; one offender isn't going to 'rat' on another.
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Originally posted by Elfie
IIRC Israel had the UN define the border so there wouldnt be any dispute over where the border is or should be. Besides Hezbollah, who else thinks the border is incorrect?
I don't know the entire list but I'm sure other than followers of Nasrallah you could add Al Qaeda, Hamas, the PLO, and Ahmajinidad.