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General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Ripsnort on February 21, 2001, 12:52:00 PM

Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: Ripsnort on February 21, 2001, 12:52:00 PM
Prices Jump; Trade Deficit at High

               By Martin Crutsinger
               AP Economics Writer
               Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2001; 9:28 a.m. EST

               WASHINGTON –– Consumer prices shot up a
               worrisome 0.6 percent in December, the biggest
               increase in 10 months, as homeowners saw their natural
               gas bills jump by a record amount, the Labor
               Department said Wednesday.

               The January rise in the closely watched Consumer Price
               Index was the largest since a 0.6 percent increase in
               March 2000. Last month's figure reflected a record 17.4
               percent increase in the price of natural gas, a
               development that has sent residential gas bills over the
               $300 mark in many parts of the country.

               The January increase in inflation, which followed three
               straight monthly gains of a moderate 0.2 percent, was
               double what private economists had been expecting.

               Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said America's
               trade deficit with the rest of the world rose to an
               all-time high of $369.7 billion last year even though the
               December deficit shrank for a third straight month.

               The trade deficit for all of 2000 was 39.5 percent higher
               than the previous record-holder, a deficit of $265
               billion in 1999. The increase occurred even though the
               deficit for December narrowed a slight 0.4 percent to
               $33 billion.

               In a sign of things to come, China overtook perennial
               front-runner Japan as the country with the largest trade
               gap with the United States.

               The trade deficit has set an annual record for the past
               three years as the strong U.S. economy has been a
               magnet for imports while many of America's major
               export markets have been struggling to recover from
               currency crises in 1997 and 1998.

               The acceleration in price pressures last month was led
               by a 3.9 percent jump in energy prices, the worst
               showing since September. Natural gas prices rose 17.4
               percent from last month – the largest one-month increase
               on record. Electricity prices were up 2.6 percent from
               last month, the biggest one-month gain since February
               1980.

               Outside the volatile food and energy categories, the
               "core" rate of inflation was up 0.3 percent in January,
               the largest increase since November.

               The 0.6 percent rise in the overall Consumer Price
               Index followed an even bigger 1.1 percent surge in
               wholesale prices last month, the biggest jump in more
               than a decade.

               Critics of U.S. trade policy see the rising trade deficits
               as a major flaw in free trade that has allowed low-wage
               countries to displace American manufacturing workers.

               But free-trade supporters, including top economic
               officials in the Bush administration, contend that
               America has no option but to compete in the global
               economy.

               That was also the position taken by the previous Clinton
               administration, which angered its labor constituency by
               resisting protectionist pressures at home while pursuing
               a strategy of tearing down foreign trade barriers.

               American exports, propelled by strong demand for farm
               products, autos and industrial materials, rose by 11.7
               percent to top the $1 trillion mark for the first time at
               $1.07 trillion. But imports were up an even sharper 17.8
               percent to $1.44 trillion, driven in part by a rising
               foreign oil bill.

               The country imported a record 3.4 billion barrels of
               crude oil with the average price rising to $26.41, the
               highest level in 16 years, since a $27.68 average in
               1984.

               Among individual trading partners, America suffered the
               biggest shortfall with China, a record imbalance of
               $83.8 billion, 22 percent higher than in 1999.

               The deficit with Japan, which for decades has been the
               front-runner, also set a record at $81.3 billion, an
               increase of 10.8 percent over the 1999 imbalance.

               America's deficit with its biggest trading partner,
               Canada, climbed to a record $50.4 billion while the
               trade gap with Mexico, the other partner in NAFTA,
               rose to a record $24.2 billion. The deficit with Western
               Europe hit a record $59.8 billion.

               For December, the $33 billion deficit compared to
               $33.1 billion in November and $33.6 billion in October,
               all down from the all-time monthly high of $33.8 billion
               set in September. It marked the first time the trade
               deficit has improved for three straight months since
               mid-1995.

               Food costs last month rose a more moderate 0.3 percent
               after posting a 0.5 percent gain the month before.
               Housing costs were up 1 percent after more moderate
               increases through most of last year.

               If the January rise in consumer prices continued for an
               entire year, something forecasters are not expecting,
               inflation for all of 2001 would be a sizable 7.8 percent.

               Last year, consumer prices rose by 3.4 percent, the
               biggest increase in a decade, reflecting a second year of
               rising energy prices. Most analysts think inflation this
               year will be better controlled.
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: Jimdandy on February 21, 2001, 01:11:00 PM
So much cheer in your post. I feel much better now.  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: TheWobble on February 21, 2001, 01:12:00 PM
I have froze all my trading since well before Bush took office, waiting for things to cool down, all the trends that I had been able to predict very easy are shot, the market is not obeying the laws that it is supposed to.  About 5  months ago the 4 stocks I was in would follow a very constant wave of rise and gain, thus I made money, but just as all the recount crap and everything started everything stopped following the patterns and started behaving erratically, I have been watching ever since, but no trading   (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/frown.gif).

Things will return to normal eventually though, there hasnt been anything to cause a paradigm shift in the economy or the market.  its just the ususal gutteral heave that the nation gets when the rollercoater goes through a steep dip.

[This message has been edited by TheWobble (edited 02-21-2001).]
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: Ripsnort on February 21, 2001, 01:14:00 PM
Buy low, sell high...now is a great time for investment for the future..that is, if you're not a day trader.
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: TheWobble on February 21, 2001, 01:18:00 PM
I dont go for long term inverstments anynmore I buy cheep stocks that have shares available for under $30 and just buy a whole lot of them, as soon as they gain even a few cents to half a dollar i can sell them and make money without having to ride them for very long.
Also if a stock is looking to crash i buy a "put" in it and make money if it goes down.
But like I said, they arnt behaving.  which is why I havent been trading hardly at all..which is why I have so many posts here  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)
Good for HTC though, I got so bored i reopened my account  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif)

[This message has been edited by TheWobble (edited 02-21-2001).]
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: Eagler on February 21, 2001, 02:25:00 PM
that's what happens when you have a bunch of tree huggers running the country for the last eight years....a lot of good the ecology does you when you are pedaling your arse off the get back to your candle lit home  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/smile.gif)

the wallstreet boys still win, they just short everything.

Eagler
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: TheWobble on February 21, 2001, 02:34:00 PM
 
Quote
the wallstreet boys still win, they just short everything.

The wall street Wobble sure isnt.. (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/frown.gif)

its hard to predict anything now, and thats all the market is, even when things are going "up" if its not a predictable rise its still hard to make any money.
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: mrfish on February 21, 2001, 03:59:00 PM
50% of my company got cut today - about 175 people. the rest of us got to choose between a cut in pay and the street -
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: mrfish on February 21, 2001, 04:02:00 PM
 
Quote
Originally posted by TheWobble:
there hasnt been anything to cause a paradigm shift in the economy or the market.  its just the ususal gutteral heave that the nation gets when the rollercoater goes through a steep dip.

[This message has been edited by TheWobble (edited 02-21-2001).]

say what? how about the huge over-valuation of internet stocks in 1999 compared to the emphasis on earnings today? it's not a classic kuhnian paradigm shift but i wouldn't say that this is without cause -
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: Eagler on February 21, 2001, 04:06:00 PM
sorry to hear that mrfish

gl

Eagler

Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: TheWobble on February 21, 2001, 04:06:00 PM
stocks get over overvalued all the time, the tech sector has been extremely overvalued, like i said because of this it will make a bigger wave than usual, but nothing that hasent happened before, just the same thing with a different stock, a more extreme case granted, but no out of the ordanary in its happening.
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: LJK Raubvogel on February 21, 2001, 04:22:00 PM
Being a market neophyte, I never invest with an expectation of getting any kind of return sooner than 5 years. Over the long haul the market always appreciates. The internet crap stocks put the hurts on my mutual funds though  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/frown.gif)
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: Pepino on February 22, 2001, 02:57:00 AM
We are seeing a huge correction in Stock Market valuations, the bottom still not met, IMHO. What has happened to Internet & Telecomm companies is a bubble. Wrong assumptions on future earnings, with no perspective about what Internet economy means led to ludicrous theoretical values for stocks. Internet Portals (whose intrinsic value is zero) were sold for billions, and all Hi-Tech values drew the rest of the market sky high.

Technical analysis is a tool, and a valuable one, but it is easy to bend (if you are on a buy mood   (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/wink.gif)). Now we will have to taste the bitter end of the market, that is, when the bubble bursts.

It is too early to see how deep the slowdown will go, especially when the US growth seems to be stalling but inflation does not fall accordingly, thus spoiling the use of interest rates as a boost for economy, and blurring the real efect of a tax cut. In the meantime, the wise position is cash or short term liquid sovereign instruments, IMO. Treasuries would be, but uncertainties of the likehood of further interest decreases make the cautious approach worth a look.

Anyway, bad news for the whole world, even Euro zone exportations to the U.S. are aprox 20% of total industrial output.

Cheers,

Pepe
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: TheWobble on February 22, 2001, 09:49:00 AM
 
Quote
Being a market neophyte, I never invest with an expectation of getting any kind of return sooner than 5 years. Over the long haul the market always appreciates. The internet crap stocks put the hurts on my mutual funds though

That is looking more and more the way to go.  I have completely stopped trading for the time being.  I may start job hunting again soon  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/frown.gif)
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: StSanta on February 22, 2001, 10:41:00 AM
Muahahah.

Perhaps thhis will lower the value of the dollar.

And make AH cheaper  (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/biggrin.gif).

------------------
Baron Claus "StSanta" Von Ribbentroppen
9./JG 54 "Grünherz"
"All your base/are belong to us"
http://www.thefever.com/AYB2.swf
Keep up the momentum!
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: Pepino on February 22, 2001, 11:13:00 AM
I wouldn't put my money on that, Santa. Maybe if inflation figures get better in the U.S. the perspectives of a strong € materializes. Meanwhile, I would be happy with a mild impact of U.S. slowdown in Euroland economy, and with my some €32.5/month to be your target   (http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/Smileys/default/wink.gif)

OTOH, how nice it would be that Euro economists hit it in the nail and we have a 1.3-1.5 €/$ ...can you say a 2001 Z06 'Vette for €36,900-32.300? Then you could be really flying lo. SLUUUURRPPP!

Cheers,

Pepe.
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: mrfish on February 22, 2001, 01:48:00 PM
 
Quote
Originally posted by Eagler:
sorry to hear that mrfish
gl
Eagler

thanks eagler, appreciate it- i was offered a full time position (me and about 15 others of 350) so i will be ok - many of those not cut immediately were only offered transitional roles until the new co.that bought us gets settled - what burns me (among other things) is that many people who won't bounce back so easily are now out there competing in a dwindling job market.

i work for one of those tech companies whose brilliant ivy league mba's decided that losing 90 million dollars a year was a super-cool cutting edge idea.

they, like every other co. in this industry brought in a bunch of overpaid cell-phone toting, sidewalk posing, buzz-word spewing, 'friends' clones to sit around and make manicure appointments and wear bright clothing because it was the industry trend.

whatever happened to moderate sustained growth over this 'all or nothin' lose money approach?

the people on top are pulling their golden ripcords and counting their multi-million dollar severence packages "oh well, that approach didn't work - what will we try next .....hmmm" and many others (real people)are filling out unemployment paperwork and wondering how to pay the rent.

way to go corporate america - maybe the next economic experiment should come out of the executives pockets if it doesnt work -

end of rant-
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: TheWobble on February 22, 2001, 03:18:00 PM
mr. Fish is right, Back when I had first started my Cisco and A+ stuff and was almost done with my degree.  There was so much demand it was silly.  2 weeks after I completed my final tests giving me my Degree and Certification A company called me asking me if I would like to work for them and asking what I wanted.  Now people with more education than me and more experence are having a hard time finding even a decent job.
Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: Mk10 225th on February 23, 2001, 10:55:00 AM
"that's what happens when you have a bunch of tree huggers running the country for the last eight years....a lot of good the ecology does you when you are pedaling your arse off the get back to your candle lit home
the wallstreet boys still win, they just short everything.

Eagler"


Oh me...Eagler, you always bring a smile to my face.  Don't you ever change...not one little bit!

mr.fish, glad to hear you're okay, bud.

Mk

Title: For the U.S, financially, things are looking bleak
Post by: mrfish on February 23, 2001, 12:38:00 PM
Thanks MK10

 - i seriously suggest everyone start saving at any rate -

- if you take total value of the companies out there and divide it by the amount of shares outstanding - it shows that the prices of their stocks are still inflated by a long shot  - nowhere near 1999 standards but still off by a big margin - without profit histories the market is due for a further downward correction -people aren't investing on faith and gimmick anymore -

just my opinion anyway(which is about as good as any monkey who can spell when it comes to the market), but the first  place they cut cost tends to be in employees - it is good to be ready