Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Ripsnort on December 06, 2006, 09:48:51 AM
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When will this bleeding stop? I once spoke to a person that stated:
"Soon, Boeing will be kocked off its perch as producer of the largest airliner when the A380 enters service in 2006. In a typical configuration the A380 will seat 555 passengers.
So it looks like Europe is carrying the torch for airliner development right now, and will continue to do so for many years. "
Today, Boeing hit an all-time stock price high of $91+ dollars today (*See stock price increase since 2003 at bottom*) and still rising. There is a huge 20-plane order they're about to announce for 747-8's, of which 32 they've sold to date since announcing the 747-8 in 2005.
The stock price traditionally has split at the $70 range, but I believe Boeing is letting this go higher due to back orders on the 787 and 747-8.
The company couldn't be doing better, and historically speaking, has never been in a better position, commercially speaking, with the arrival of the 787 and 747-8, the latter which will be back-filling canceled A380 orders.
What will Airbus do to prevent this bleeding? What has Boeing done to prevent going down the same CAD/CAM path as EADS? I'd like to tell you what we're doing to prevent that same mistake, but its proprietary info. ;) One thing is certain, we've learned from Airbus's mistakes. I'm certainly glad they were "out front" technologically speaking, with a new CAD system, while trying to integrate legacy CAD system data in the development of the A380...after all, we could have made the first step and easily been in EADS position right now.
*(http://pic4.picturetrail.com/VOL767/2726312/8668097/211224597.jpg)
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You know all your doing is making beater make another shade.
The guy has no shame.
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But all these airlines and cargo companies are subsidizing Boeing! It's exactly the same as Airbus!
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I think you are thumping your chest prematurely.
While the A380 is delayed and having growing pains, they have a physical product to show off. The Boeing 787 Dreamliner hasnt even started production yet. And be certain that when it does and runs into delays, it will make the news much like Airbus' has.
Further, 70% of the Dreamliner is made abroad. Its assembled in back here. But should one key component run late, it will slow the entire production down. Just like the 380.
So Rip, enjoy your moment of glory. It may have to last you for a couple years.
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From Aero-News.Net (yesterday)
Crunch Time: Boeing Prepares To Build The 787
Tue, 05 Dec '06
But Potential Problems Lie Ahead
From recent news reports, you might think Boeing can do no wrong as Airbus continues to stumble. But that's not necessarily the case. In fact, many of the teething problems that have plagued the A380 may still await Boeing's upcoming 787 Dreamliner, as the company prepares to build its first test aircraft.
Until now, the Dreamliner has existed primarily the minds and computers of engineers assigned to the project... and turning those images into reality may yet prove difficult.
"Every time we do a new airplane we essentially bet the company to some extent," said Scott Carson, head of Boeing's commercial airplane division, to the Washington Post. "When you are placing that kind of bet, you want to get it right. You have to get right."
No other commercial airliner has been built the way Boeing plans to produce the 787 -- at least, not on the same scope. Instead of building the plane in-house, for example, Boeing is allowing outside contractors -- many of them overseas -- to design and build 70 percent of the aircraft.
The wings will come from Japan, for example, while composite fuselage barrel segments will be flown over from Italy. A Chinese company is building rudders for the plane; France is producing the 787's landing gear. The components will be assembled at Boeing's Everett, WA facility.
That's an impressive sign of the global nature of today's economy... but that also leaves a lot of room for potential problems. Airbus took a similar tack when building the mammoth A380 superjumbo, for example, and that plane is now suffering its third production-related delay.
"This program is probably the most complicated thing that [Boeing] commercial airplanes has ever done," said 787 program manager Mike Bair. "From a commercial airplane structure point of view, this is going from cloth and wood to aluminum."
Boeing has approximately 430 orders for the 787... four times the number Airbus can claim for its A350XWB. Airbus redesigned its aircraft this year to present a stronger competitor to the 787.
Already, Boeing has had to bring some outsourced assembly procedures in-house for the prototype, as the company assigned to build those components wasn't meeting Boeing's standards. The manufacturer has also invested an additional $500 million in bringing the plane's target weight down.
Those problems are expected to be worked out in time for production... but what lies ahead for what is arguably Boeing's most important project to date remains uncertain.
"There are literally... a million things that can go wrong in the process that could throw them off track," said analyst Scott Hamilton
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Originally posted by LePaul
I think you are thumping your chest prematurely.
While the A380 is delayed and having growing pains, they have a physical product to show off. The Boeing 787 Dreamliner hasnt even started production yet. And be certain that when it does and runs into delays, it will make the news much like Airbus' has.
Further, 70% of the Dreamliner is made abroad. Its assembled in back here. But should one key component run late, it will slow the entire production down. Just like the 380.
So Rip, enjoy your moment of glory. It may have to last you for a couple years.
You must have missed the wiring problems and CADCAM compatibility problems that were in the news recently? Supplier services are not as big of a factor for delays at Airbus as the wiring installation incompatibility problems that Airbus had with V4 and V5...
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Incidently, today in Everett is the "Virtual Roll Out" of the 787, which is a digital computer simulation of 787 production and assembly process.
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
When will this bleeding stop? I once spoke to a person that stated:
"Soon, Boeing will be kocked off its perch as producer of the largest airliner when the A380 enters service in 2006. In a typical configuration the A380 will seat 555 passengers.
So it looks like Europe is carrying the torch for airliner development right now, and will continue to do so for many years. "
Today, Boeing hit an all-time stock price high of $91+ dollars today and still rising. There is a huge 20-plane order they're about to announce for 747-8's, of which 32 they've sold to date since announcing the 747-8 in 2005.
The stock price traditionally has split at the $70 range, but I believe Boeing is letting this go higher due to back orders on the 787 and 747-8.
The company couldn't be doing better, and historically speaking, has never been in a better position, commercially speaking, with the arrival of the 787 and 747-8, the latter which will be back-filling canceled A380 orders.
What will Airbus do to prevent this bleeding? What has Boeing done to prevent going down the same CAD/CAM path as EADS? I'd like to tell you what we're doing to prevent that same mistake, but its proprietary info. ;) One thing is certain, we've learned from Airbus's mistakes. I'm certainly glad they were "out front" technologically speaking, with a new CAD system, while trying to integrate legacy CAD system data in the development of the A380...after all, we could have made the first step and easily been in EADS position right now.
Funny how you never mentioned the shady attempt at trying to win the tanker deal that went south rapidly either.
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Thai airline has a 50/50 fleet of Boeing/Airbus about 8o aircrafts strong. I'll would not be too worried about banning one manufacturer.
In August 2005, they canceled the purchace of 2 A340 also, but it was for fanancial reason, they couldn't afford them. :D
... plus they haven't canceled yet, they threatened it.:D
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Originally posted by Hawco
Funny how you never mentioned the shady attempt at trying to win the tanker deal that went south rapidly either.
We're talking Commercial airlines here. If you want to revisit that thread, go search for it, or start one. (http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/images/smilies/iono.gif)
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
We're talking Commercial airlines here. If you want to revisit that thread, go search for it, or start one. (http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/images/smilies/iono.gif)
A bit touchy today me thinks?
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Originally posted by SFRT - Frenchy
Thai airline has a 50/50 fleet of Boeing/Airbus about 8o aircrafts strong. I'll would not be too worried about banning one[/size] manufacturer.
In August 2005, they canceled the purchace of 2 A340 also, but it was for fanancial reason, they couldn't afford them. :D
... plus they haven't canceled yet, they threatened it.:D
Deliveries will be pushed back by nearly two years.
Malaysia Airlines and ILFC are still considering the cancellation of their orders.
Launch customers Singapore Airlines, Emirates and Qantas also were reported to be angered by the delays and expecting compensation. Emirates, saw its first delivery pushed back to August 2008 and said as a result that it was considering scaling back its order potentially in favour of the rival Boeing 747-8. Virgin Atlantic deferred its deliveries by four years, to 2013. FedEx dropped its order for ten A380F freighters in favor of 15 Boeing 777F freighters.
Its not just ONE.
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Originally posted by Hawco
A bit touchy today me thinks?
Not at all. The military side of the house doesn't affect me at all.
Incidently, here is the thread about the tanker deal:
http://www.hitechcreations.com/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=136367&highlight=Boeing+Tanker
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You missunderstanded me Rip, I said "[ThaiAir] banning one manufactureur, not one airline banning Airbus.
Airlines need planes right away, but buy/sale fairly often as the market changes.
Gloating on orders cancelations on a one year period seems shortsighted when the production life of the A380s is going to be 30+ years. Those A380s are going to be eventually available, and airlines will buy them. In the meantime, they will by Boeings, or other Airbuses types. It's not like those cancellations are going to sink Airbus, or give the aircraft sale monopoly to Boeing.
:rolleyes:
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Originally posted by SFRT - Frenchy
You missunderstanded me Rip, I said "[ThaiAir] banning one manufactureur, not one airline banning Airbus.
Airlines need planes right away, but buy/sale fairly often as the market changes.
Gloating on orders cancelations on a one year period seems shortsighted when the production life of the A380s is going to be 30+ years. Those A380s are going to be eventually available, and airlines will buy them. In the meantime, they will by Boeings, or other Airbuses types. It's not like those cancellations are going to sink Airbus, or give the aircraft sale monopoly to Boeing.
:rolleyes:
The only "gloat" was that 3 years ago, people could not have been more wrong about Boeing. Other than that statement, I asked a question: What will Airbus do to prevent this bleeding?
I've yet to see a valid answer.
I agree, there is more demand for aircraft than manufacturers. That's good news for EADS in this time of turbulent weather.
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lol a Boing worker enjoying delayes at Airbus.
There must be a first time for everything :D
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As I said:
They don't have to do anything to prevent the bleeding, they still have gallons of blood left. The A380 is flagship material, airlines will buy them eventually. It's not like Airbus ramp is full of red taged A380s waiting for buyers.:D In 30 years nobody will remember about those cancellations.
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Originally posted by SFRT - Frenchy
As I said:
They don't have to do anything to prevent the bleeding, they still have gallons of blood left. The A380 is flagship material, airlines will buy them eventually. It's not like Airbus ramp is full of red taged A380s waiting for buyers.:D In 30 years nobody will remember about those cancellations.
Short term, no solution, go long term, people will forget due to supply and demand.
Point taken!:aok
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Short term, no solution, go long term, people will forget due to supply and demand.
Point taken!:aok
Just like everyone has forgotten about the 747 delayes and whatnot. In a few years the A380 will be a huge hit :D
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it will be a huge something.
zOMG than plane is BIG!!!!11:O :O :O :O :O :O :O :O
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Originally posted by Nilsen
Just like everyone has forgotten about the 747 delayes and whatnot. In a few years the A380 will be a huge hit :D
The first plane rolled out on September 30, 1968, less than three years after Pan Am had signed the letter of intent. ...... :huh?
Perhaps you were speaking to the original first flight that took place on February 9, 1969, a little past the target date of December 17, 1968?
It still was in time to meet the commitment to the launch customer for a 1969 delivery for the first production plane.
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
The 747 rolled out on schedule in 1970...... :huh?
"Initial problems with the JT9D's development forced Boeing to delay deliveries up to year, and as a result up to 30 planes at one time were left stranded at the Everett plant, with the company on the brink of bankruptcy."
mhm... dont even try to shift the blame over on the manufacturer of the engines as they come in a package with the plane. if you wanna do that then im sure someone in the inside at airbus can also point to some suppliers for the delay.
A delay is a delay and Boeing is responsible for it. ;)
You dont go complaining to intel if your Dell pc is shipping late because of a supply issue between the companies do you? No, you "whine" to Dell for not delivering on time.
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Rip,
You're very lucky you're competing with a sorry socialist state and not the likes of Toyota or else you're easy high paying union job would be out the window.
Seeing the rank and file UAW actualy forced to work for thier six figure payouts is funny.
Hope you retire before you get you'res...the market always catches up with you.
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Originally posted by Choocha
Rip,
You're very lucky you're competing with a sorry socialist state and not the likes of Toyota or else you're easy high paying union job would be out the window.
Seeing the rank and file UAW actualy forced to work for thier six figure payouts is funny.
Hope you retire before you get you'res...the market always catches up with you.
The Japanese will soon be entering the market (they already have with a 90 passenger aircraft I believe). You are so very correct.
FWIW, I am not union. I'm salaried management.
When I was a union machinist, I always stated that we were getting waaay more money than the average aerospace machinist and that was going to be the downfall of the union...thats when we have 60,000 union workers....now its number is more like 25,000. I hate it when I'm right. ;) Glad I got out when I did, or I'd have been laid off along time ago.
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More news:
Aircraft leasing firm ILFC has switched an order for five freighter versions of Airbus' A380 to the passenger version, Airbus sales chief John Leahy told Reuters on Monday. "We're deferring deliveries until 2013, 2014 and 2015," said ILFC Chief Operating Officer John Plueger.
This news sort of passed by for most people. It seems there is little good news about the A380. Actually this news is rather big. It says two things: ILFC does not see any customers for the A380F it can persuade to lease the plane. The deferred delivery adds to that - demand for the plane is simply not as it once was. ILFC was reported to be getting close with South African Airways on the A380. That airline, desperate for more lift into Heathrow, actually needs a solution but seems unwilling to go for the A380.
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Ever consider switching careers to marketing and public relations?
;)
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Ok RIP,
My bad. The best thing that ever happened to the American consumer was the Japanese car invasion. Imagine what would be on the roads without them?
I hope they enter the passenger aircraft market...it will make Boeing- after a lot of suffering, stronger in the end.
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Originally posted by Choocha
Ok RIP,
My bad. The best thing that ever happened to the American consumer was the Japanese car invasion. Imagine what would be on the roads without them?
I hope they enter the passenger aircraft market...it will make Boeing- after a lot of suffering, stronger in the end.
Well, if we use the Big 3 auto makers as a litmus test for that...then I'd say Boeing would fail!
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Originally posted by LePaul
Ever consider switching careers to marketing and public relations?
;)
I sort of do some of that in Project Management. :) (Except at the project level...)
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31.1% in the past 12 months with dividends reinvested. I really couldn't be happier :cool:
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you know, these stories of "Airbus will make a success out of it yet" sound vaguely familiar. I mean, I predicted Iraq would be a disaster, and every step of the way we had hte emotionally attached hardcore saying otherwise -- "missoin accomplished" was just around the corner. Now I've been calling Skytanic since I heard about the A380, and I still see folks insisting that the good times for EADS are just around the corenr; that the A380 test flight was "mission accompished" and everything else is gravy.
I've got no love for "me generation" have-it-alls like Ripsnort here, but
it's through news work by him and his European counterparts that I realize I was wrong about both Airbus and Iraq.
The problem wasn't the scope of the project, but rather the management that tried to put it into place: the management that rose to power through infighting, and had come to value victories in the tiny esoteric management circle more than tangible gains in the real world. This is the sort of management that rose to the top by describing the world as their bosses wanted to hear it, and opposed to what their bosses' enemies thought, and not by telling it as it was. And ultimately, a top-down management structure leads to disaster.
If all Europeans lose as a result of the A380 disaster is EADS (which I doubt), they should consider themselves lucky this time.
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Oh come on dinger. You know you love me, and you know you love my carpeted garage. You're just not man enough to come out of the closet and admit it. :)
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
...my carpeted garage...
if u were a girl, that'd be a euphemism:O :O :O (unless u were brittney spears)
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whats a u-fer-risim?
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The back order for Boeing is good news. But as an layed off Boeing worker, kind of better sweet. I got hit by the 9/11 lay off. Boeing did call me back last year. But I decided to stay out here at Lockheed, betting my future retirement on the F-35. I'm close to getting layed off here. If I had gone back to Everett, I wouldn't of gotten married. But if I had gone back, I may not have to worry about getting layed off again there. Hard to say what would of been right to decide.
Hey Rip, what is the percentage of layed off workers have come back?
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a couple of real important Boeing people went to prison on that tanker deal hawco. Just as it should be but thats an entirely different scenario than whats going on with the 747-8/787 and the A380/A350 programs.
Firbal,
I cant speak on rips org but in the one I was in during the big layoffs we lost about 35 people. Of those I would estimate maybe as many as 20 were recalled.
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Originally posted by firbal
The back order for Boeing is good news. But as an layed off Boeing worker, kind of better sweet. I got hit by the 9/11 lay off. Boeing did call me back last year. But I decided to stay out here at Lockheed, betting my future retirement on the F-35. I'm close to getting layed off here. If I had gone back to Everett, I wouldn't of gotten married. But if I had gone back, I may not have to worry about getting layed off again there. Hard to say what would of been right to decide.
Hey Rip, what is the percentage of layed off workers have come back?
Firbal, your story proves that there is indeed a silver lining behind every cloud. Sorry to hear about your upcoming layoff.
I couldn't tell you what percentage, I know that quite a few hourly workers were hired back in, but not as in past "unswings" at Boeing, since most of the work is now given to vendors. If you remember, rumors going around since the early 90's that "Boeing wants to be an assembler of aircraft" rather than a builder of every part. That has come true. The Unions stubborness, and the companies quest to make planes cheaper (to keep up with the competition) made this possible.
In my particular IT group I've been with since 1999, we went from 16 employees to 6, now we're up to about 28, but some of that is due to combining groups. Back in 2003, the average age at Boeing was 48 years old. I felt like a young man at the company then...now they're hiring quite a few college kids (salary or engineering jobs) so the overall avg age is dropping once again.
Its hard to believe that Boeing laid off 50,000 from 9/11/2001 to roughly 6/2003. Thats alot of people displaced because of a few of nutbags believing that Allah had 72 virgins waiting for them.
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I think that the newly unveiled 570 will take over the entire market. I would buy stock if I were you. I did.
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I had a meeting with the manager in charge of the A380 operations implementation for Qantas in sydney some weeks ago.
They are not surprised with the delays with the A380, because Qantas operations also remember delays with 747's etc. When Qantas increased their A380 order, they also used the "bad publicity" to get a good deal with Airbus with an order of A340's. He also remarked that the company also expect the same to happen with the 787.
...business as usual
Tronsky
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The 777 was cutting edge when it was designed, and Boeing managed that program on time and on weight. All those young engineers on the 777 are now senior engineers on then 787. The 787 will meet its schedule, and the first customer bird will be on weight. The 787 is the most successfull launch airplane in commercial aviation history. Im developing the opinion that the A380 and the A350 wont best that. Not by a long shot. Boeing played this one spot on. And the success of the 747-8 is just frosting on the cake.
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no cost effective airline has been cutting edge since the 707
i hope boeing uses the buckets of dough ther're making to build something advanced so i only have to sit next to the farting hippo lady lighting matches for 1 1/2 hours instead of 5
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take the train, walk around, meet people, eat in a dining car, sleep in a bed, see the country.
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I take the train whenever im not in a hurry. By far more relaxing and enjoyable than a plane.
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Originally posted by john9001
take the train, walk around, meet people, eat in a dining car, sleep in a bed, see the country.
Now we're talking! My kids, wife and I took the train out to our family reunion in 2002 (the boys were 4 and 7 respectively) It was a 60 hour round trip. We reserved the "Family Sleeper" cabin, the very rear of the Amtrak train, that stretches the full width of the train. That was real nice! Spendy though.
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Originally posted by -tronski-
I had a meeting with the manager in charge of the A380 operations implementation for Qantas in sydney some weeks ago.
They are not surprised with the delays with the A380, because Qantas operations also remember delays with 747's etc. When Qantas increased their A380 order, they also used the "bad publicity" to get a good deal with Airbus with an order of A340's. He also remarked that the company also expect the same to happen with the 787.
...business as usual
Tronsky
Hey Tron, I'll repeat myself: the 747 was delayed by 3 months for first flight only... Not 2 years to delivery of first customer. Big difference. ;) Boeing was on time on its first delivery.
Now what your manager probably doesn't remember is that a Qantas order, at some point in time, was delayed due to a labor strike, which Boeing has had 4 or 5 since the 747 flew. (Both UAW and SPEEA unions combined)
Good on Qantas for taking advantage of the bad publicity. That sounds like some good management techniques. If you can get it cheaper, you help the company.
I certainly hope we don't repeat what the A380 program has done, also, as I mentioned above, the major set back for A380 is being prevented as I type this message at Boeing. I can't be specific,(proprioritary, Boeing-limited info) but lets just leave it at "we've learned from the A380 program what not to do". ;)
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
The stock price traditionally has split at the $70 range, but I believe Boeing is letting this go higher due to back orders on the 787 and 747-8.
That doesn't make any sense. Stock split is a completely non-economic event. You are the same with 2 shares at $45 each or 1 at $90.
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Originally posted by BigGun
Stock split is a completely non-economic event. You are the same with 2 shares at $45 each or 1 at $90.
Not true in short-term events.
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Originally posted by BigGun
That doesn't make any sense. Stock split is a completely non-economic event. You are the same with 2 shares at $45 each or 1 at $90.
no, stocks are normally sold in lots of 100 shares, when a stock splits it is now affordable to more buyers and stocks usually go up after a split. Thats why companies split their stocks, to keep the stock prices in the affordable range, so people will buy, when people buy, the stock goes up.
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Originally posted by john9001
no, stocks are normally sold in lots of 100 shares, when a stock splits it is now affordable to more buyers and stocks usually go up after a split. Thats why companies split their stocks, to keep the stock prices in the affordable range, so people will buy, when people buy, the stock goes up.
:aok
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question about the 555 passenger a380, is that the model with the restaurant, bowling alley, and swimming pool?
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(http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/dbr/lowres/dbrn386l.jpg)