Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Vudak on January 11, 2007, 05:19:28 PM
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I really, really, really need to fix my computer in the basement, because sitting here in the family room, with the family watching "An Inconvenient Truth," is driving me crazy.
Something about Gore's voice just makes my head feel like it's going to explode.
Oh, and tip for him... You think there's a problem with global warming, and actually want to get something done about it? DON'T HAVE AN EX-CANDIDATE FOR EITHER PARTY ENDORSE IT. ESPECIALLY NOT AN ALSO-RAN.
/rant off
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Too bad nobody will listen to Al. I think he's on to something this time.
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We need to get him back in the basement to develop the faster than light internet...then we wont see nearly as many "ramming" threads ;)
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I recently watched it, and was frankly quite surprised.
I don't agree with all his conclusions. And in a couple of cases I suspect his statistics and data were fudged a bit.
What was impressive to me was the scale of the glacier melt off.
Showing Glacier National park before and after pictures with 20 - 30 years apart was frankly a bit scary.
Great data, nice presentation, but if he'd really wanted to make a difference he'd of hired someone to do it instead of doing it himself. That makes it more about politics & less about global warming.
The really impressive thing to me was the co2 and temp data from polar ice cores going back the last 6 ice ages. WOW!
The conclusion that he missed, its that it IS a cyclic problem, on a really HUGE scale. And yes we are adding too it, and making it worse, but it won't continue climbing forever, its going to tip the other way. Each ice age clearly showed a climb of co2 & temp peaking then plunging very very quickly into a new ice age.
Then a long slow climb out until it peaked again.
That plunge is what I'm worried about, not the average temp of the USA being 130 degrees in 10 years, or all the polar ice caps melting. But we could be sliding into the next ice age at virtually any moment.
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I worry about the next ice age and all the selfish people driving prius's.
I will do my best to slow the coming ice age with my hot rods and fireplace.
lazs
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if goron closed his pie hole and stop releasing so much hot air, I think that would help the polar caps ...
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Yes, recalling pervasive emissions around the globe, no wonder CFC is a concern (Cattle Flatulence Control).
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I thought it was an excellent documentary, paced very well, and interesting to watch.
I suppose only time will really end the debate on global warming. Either we'll look back and laugh at all the fuss, or look back and laugh at our ignorance.
Edit: I kant spel
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Originally posted by republic
I thought it was an excelled documentary, paced very well, and interesting to watch.
documentary? I filed it under science fiction :t
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Originally posted by rpm
Too bad nobody will listen to Al. I think he's on to something this time.
oh, i don't know. the events that he was speaking at looked pretty sold out to me.
i wonder how many people go to listen to some of the blowhards here speak when they get their butts up off of these boards and take their own proactive stances in the universe
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I've always considered Gore an inconvenient idiot.
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Originally posted by Yknurd
I've always considered Gore an inconvenient idiot.
and i am sure he spends alot of time worrying about that.
;)
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Originally posted by JB88
oh, i don't know. the events that he was speaking at looked pretty sold out to me.
i wonder how many people go to listen to some of the blowhards here speak when they get their butts up off of these boards and take their own proactive stances in the universe
That will never happen. They are either soo alergic to sunlight or they are afraid to get too far from their gun cabinet to make a proactive stance. It's much easier for them to sit at the computer and pretend they know what they're talking about.
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Originally posted by rpm
That will never happen. They are either soo alergic to sunlight or they are afraid to get too far from their gun cabinet to make a proactive stance. It's much easier for them to sit at the computer and pretend they know what they're talking about.
BWAHAHAHAHA
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Originally posted by Ghosth
I recently watched it, and was frankly quite surprised.
I don't agree with all his conclusions. And in a couple of cases I suspect his statistics and data were fudged a bit.
What was impressive to me was the scale of the glacier melt off.
Showing Glacier National park before and after pictures with 20 - 30 years apart was frankly a bit scary.
Great data, nice presentation, but if he'd really wanted to make a difference he'd of hired someone to do it instead of doing it himself. That makes it more about politics & less about global warming.
The really impressive thing to me was the co2 and temp data from polar ice cores going back the last 6 ice ages. WOW!
The conclusion that he missed, its that it IS a cyclic problem, on a really HUGE scale. And yes we are adding too it, and making it worse, but it won't continue climbing forever, its going to tip the other way. Each ice age clearly showed a climb of co2 & temp peaking then plunging very very quickly into a new ice age.
Then a long slow climb out until it peaked again.
That plunge is what I'm worried about, not the average temp of the USA being 130 degrees in 10 years, or all the polar ice caps melting. But we could be sliding into the next ice age at virtually any moment.
If you haven't seen it already - you might like this movie. Special effects are first rate, and it's topic is what you're concerned about.
The Day After Tomorrow (http://imdb.com/title/tt0319262/)
Of course, according to the 650,000 year record of data, we are already passed the time when we should've been plunged into another ice age. We are in uncharted territory, CO2-wise. The atmospheric concentration of Carbon Dioxide has never been above 300 ppm in 650,000 years. We're at 380 ppm and climbing exponentially. Or do you believe those are the numbers Gore fudged?
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we are a pimple on the Earth's arse, and in a few decades fossil fuels will be a remembrance....(and did 3/4 of ONE degree in the last 100 years makes the glaciers melt?)
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Originally posted by oboe
If you haven't seen it already - you might like this movie. Special effects are first rate, and it's topic is what you're concerned about.
OMG, not even highly educated scientists in the field acknowledge that abrupt climate change as that movie depicts can happen! When scientists talk about climate change, they are usually referring to “gradual climate change.” :rolleyes:
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Oboe, no I'm not saying he's fudged the Co2 #'s.
But what I'd like to see is where that data was collected, the raw uninterpreted untouched data, ie no corrections, conclusions, etc.
I agree we are off the scale on Co2, but is he measuring apples & apples? Or apples & Oranges?
Is he mixing atmospheric data from the US with polar ice cap data?
When you start looking at statistics there are simply tons of ways of influencing the results. That is assuming you go in with a bias one way or the other.
I would love to see clear cut, unbiased results across the board from someone who's funding does NOT depend on the answer.
Seems that everything is either loosely based in fact, biased, or just flatly trys to ignore the whole problem.
Would love to see some truly independant investigations.
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
OMG, not even highly educated scientists in the field acknowledge that abrupt climate change as that movie depicts can happen! When scientists talk about climate change, they are usually referring to “gradual climate change.” :rolleyes:
Take it easy, Rip. I didn't say I believed it - I just said I thought Ghosth would enjoy it, because it dealt with exactly the issue he brought up. No more to it than that.
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Originally posted by Ghosth
...I would love to see clear cut, unbiased results across the board from someone who's funding does NOT depend on the answer...
Would love to see some truly independant investigations.
Very important points indeed.
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
OMG, not even highly educated scientists in the field acknowledge that abrupt climate change as that movie depicts can happen! When scientists talk about climate change, they are usually referring to “gradual climate change.” :rolleyes:
Most climate change is gradual, right up until it triggers a change. Then it can be cataclysmic. woolly Mammoths frozen stiff with a mouth full of food. Ice shelfs that show some melt water pools, then suddenly disappear entirely.
Going back to those CO2 & temp charts, most of the changes are quite slow, takes century's to change a degree, yet at the tip over point at the top, there is a very tight spike. Temp goes UP dramatically, then DOWN even more dramatically. Like an old fashioned balance beam, you can keep slowly adding potatoes to the high side, and when it finally shifts it has nothing to do with how slow you added the potatoes.
Its all about how much difference there now is between the 2 sides. Not how fast the change was.
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Now's the time to be a contrarian and invest in winter survival equipment. :(
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Think about "the data" a little bit.
Recorded, scientific weather data does not go back all that far. I believe it's only since about the late 1800s and even then it was fairly localized. Plus we on the planet have only been recording CO2 levels for a relatively short time.
Yes, cores can be drilled, sampled, and analyzed but the data results of such are based on modeling.
Models based on data from models interpolated using data from other models.
Now think about how accurate the weatherman is 3 to 5+ days in advance.
I understand it is a politically unpopular thing as well for folks in the scientific community to publicly question the global warming theory.
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its kind of hard to take your interpretation of data seriously given the nature of your avatard rog
:rofl
(ya ya...i know, look who's talkin!)
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lol, as soon as sumthing becoms political, evary 1 on teh intarnets is an expurt roflmao:noid:noid:noid:noid:aok
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The biggest cause of global warming is undoubtably the huge ball of fusing hydrogen at the center of our solar system, aka the SUN. Since solar output varies over time, our planet's temperature varies over time.
Yes, our polar caps are in a melting stage - so are the ones on MARS. Somehow, I don't think its our use of fossil fuels that is causing the martian polar ice caps to shrink, although Al Gore might have some unique statistics-based proof of that too.
Rather than listen to Al Gore, you might want to listen to NASA -
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html (http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html)
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Originally posted by EagleDNY
Yes, our polar caps are in a melting stage - so are the ones on MARS
0 NOES!!!11:O :O :mad: :mad: :furious :furious he is RIGHTE!!
(http://btc.montana.edu/ceres/html/Tutorial/images/marsnpc.jpg)
wow that was FAST:cool: :cool: :noid
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looks! u can see it disaparing:noid:noid
furst byebye 2 teh top one(http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/kids/satellite/story2/marsanimation.gif) the teh bottim ones(http://home.tiscali.nl/ppsmeets/Planeten/Mars%202003-08-27%20angif.gif) :O :O :O :mad: :mad:
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HAve you ever heard of NASA scientist James Hansen? If you trust NASA more than Gore, might want to pay attention to him then.
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Originally posted by Debonair
0 NOES!!!11:O :O :mad: :mad: :furious :furious he is RIGHTE!!
(http://btc.montana.edu/ceres/html/Tutorial/images/marsnpc.jpg)
wow that was FAST:cool: :cool: :noid
soooo. are you suggesting that it would be okay because we would have the same lush environment that mars does?
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Mar's polar ice caps are seasonal, expanding and contracting with the change of Mar's seasons. They are made of frozen CO2.
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darn now i feel dum:mad::mad::mad::furious:furious:furious OMG & angry too!!! u r wrongs, jerk:furious
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The Sun is rather jumpy these past years, EagleDNY is correct...
some funny explosions goin on the sun, from what I've read.
Mr.Gore should've added DATA to his video about the Sun, still doesn't excuse our mis-handling of our own enviroment though.
1st time I wear a t-shirt on the 5th of January, usually minus 10 up North, so for you freaks who think nothing is happening, WAKE-UP smell the flowers still blooming in January...
CAUSE won't matter when the EFFECTs take place.
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How many people have stopped using their cars?
ohnoessss!!11!1!111!11...why not? why do you hate the earth soooo much?
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The changes in the sun more than explain the current global warming... in fact.. we should be warming faster. Perhaps we are causing global cooling?
We must be doing something bad tho cause there ain't no money in not telling people what to do.
Higher Co2 levels have always proceeded global warming not preceded it.
We would be in a global cooling trend but the sun is acting up.
gore gave no data on the sun because that would have indeed have been the most......
Inconvenient truth.
It is indeed inconvenient for the environmentalist political faction of socialists that we are such a minor player in global climate change.
lazs
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One thing I didnt notice mentioned here---most global warming charts seem to START at 1970....reason being the temp was dropping or static until then---has industrial activity increased THAT much since then?
People's belief in global warming, IMO, seems more to center on their political views than anything else--we know most the folk's on this board political views, and the vast majority of those who think it's bs are rightists or libertarians, and those who subscribe to it are left-of-center, for the most part, as well as 'concerned' scientists, who can usually be found on college campuses (well-known bastions of right-wing-thinking), where many have remained their whole adult lives in an insulated cocoon of 'America is wrong--ALWAYS'
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The debate over global warming ends up being like most debates..
"My favorite political party/news/media/trusted source says your favorite political party/news/media/trusted source is wrong...so there."
We have to all agree however, that the less pollution we put into our environment the better. Rather than declare the sky is falling when speaking about global warming...how about we start looking at the increased cases of cancer, alzheimer, etc. An incurable disease scares me far worse than increased temperatures...and is much easier to directly link to increased pollution, etc.
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Originally posted by oboe
HAve you ever heard of NASA scientist James Hansen? If you trust NASA more than Gore, might want to pay attention to him then.
I've read Jim Hansen's stuff - you might be interested to know that I've also read that the models he uses don't include solar magnetic warming effects. Thus the temperature increases are attributed to greenhouse gases in his models.
Read the NASA link I provided up the thread. The OBSERVATIONAL evidence of increased solar output over several decades is right there. Given that they say that a 0.2% variance in solar output is greater than all the energy used by man on the planet, a 0.05% increase in solar output each decade since the 70's means that the sun's tiny variation in output over the last few decades equates to adding about as much heat to our biosphere as all the energy mankind produces.
I'm not saying that it isn't a good idea to keep our emissions low, our water clean, and watch what the heck we are dumping into landfills, but I'm not going to panic yet. The climatologists can't tell me what the weather is going to be 3 weeks from now, so I'm not so convinced they can tell me what will be going on 3 decades from now.
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Thanks Eagle - its a good link, and I did skim it. I became less concerned about it when I read this passage:
Although the inferred increase of solar irradiance in 24 years, about 0.1 percent, is not enough to cause notable climate change, the trend would be important if maintained for a century or more.
IIRC, James Hanson and Gore's time horizons are much smaller than a century--I think its on the order of 10-20 years. That could be why Gore neglected it.
Also would like to point out, it's not the increase in energy output of man's activities over the years that global warming scientists are concerned about. Its the fact that greenhouse gases are trapping the wavelengths of energy that the earth re-emits after absorbing radiation from the sun.
I think an appropriate analogy is the inside of a car parked in the sun on a hot day -- the light comes in and is absorbed by materials in the interior of the car, re-emitted as heat, but the heat is reflected back into the car by the windows and windshield. The auto glass is analogous to greenhouse gases in this example. Not 100% sure I'm right about that, but that's my impression.
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for those who havent watched An Inconvenient Truth
heres a link to the whole movie
An INconvenient Truth Movie (http://movies.peekvid.com/s4055/)
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Gore can shush it up about global warming because he obviously doesn't live in the mid west.
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Originally posted by oboe
IIRC, James Hanson and Gore's time horizons are much smaller than a century--I think its on the order of 10-20 years. That could be why Gore neglected it.
Thats why I think that the statistical models they are using are "full of it" - the data period is just too short to be statistically accurate. The report in the NASA link I provided admits that the increase in solar radiation is measurable, but unless it continues for a long period of time (as you said, they suggest a century) the effects on overall climate would be minimal.
They also admit that they only have the solar radiation data for the comparison from the late 70's onward - while they have been tracking it and noting the increase in output from the late 70's, they don't have any data to compare solar output from a century ago to see how long this trend has been going on.
We also know that the biggest greenhouse gas is water vapor, not CO2. The condensation / evaporation cycle of water throughout the atmosphere is the biggest transference of heat energy, and the oceans are the biggest heat sink on the earth. There isn't much we can do about that, and it turns out that we don't have to because it is all part of the self-correcting system.
CO2, the 2nd largest greenhouse gas, makes up about 0.04% (thats 4/100 of 1% folks) of the atmosphere, and is continually scrubbed out of the air by rainfall and photosynthesis, which converts it back into oxygen. The self-correcting beauty of this system is that as it gets warmer, you get more rainfall, and more photosynthesis since warm conditions + water = plants growing like mad and consuming more CO2.
Interesting NASA article on this is at:
Rain Helps Carbon Sink (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/CarbonHydrology/)
Again folks, I'm not saying that we don't have to take care of our environment. I'm just not quite ready to drink the global warming koolaid being ladled out by Al Gore.
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Thanks, Eagle - interesting paper from NASA. It does conclude however, that any increase in plant life and the resulting increase in photosynthesis is not going to cancel out global warming:
Such carbon sinks, however, are unlikely to lower CO2 concentrations enough to cure global warming.
From a wiki article on greenhouse gases, in particular the role of water vapor: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas)
In climate models an increase in atmospheric temperature caused by the greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic gases will in turn lead to an increase in the water vapor content of the troposphere, with approximately constant relative humidity. The increased water vapor in turn leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and thus a further increase in temperature; the increase in temperature leads to still further increase in atmospheric water vapor; and the feedback cycle continues until equilibrium is reached. Thus water vapor acts as a positive feedback to the forcing provided by human-released greenhouse gases such as CO2.
This article doesn't agree with your conclusion that it is a self-correcting system. I don't quite get the quote above because it talks about equilibrium being reached, but in fact is describing a runaway positive feedback loop.
I'm not panicking either but I am trying to learn more about the theories.
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I liked the part where he shows you the guard rail he crashed his car into as a teenager :rolleyes: