Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => Aces High General Discussion => Topic started by: BaldEagl on June 30, 2007, 02:30:21 PM
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I was thinking about the recent thread regarding scores, and many players contentions that top ranked players were'nt actually that good.
I have come up with the following theory after thinking this over. While I limit my discussion to K/D as an example, it can be applied to most, if not all, statistical catagories. That said let's talk about fighter jocks and K/D.
First lets assume that there are about 6000 players (approximately correct based on the lowest ranks seen in the arenas although there's probably more with ties among ranks).
That means the 600th ranked fighter pilot would be in the top 10% of all players. By extension, he should be able to beat 9 out of 10 opponents he comes across, thus carrying a 9:1 K/D ratio (negligably less because of the plus one but we'll ignore that for purposes of this discussion).
We all know the 600th ranked fighter pilot carrys no where near that K/D ratio but this can be explained in part through random encounter. If he always ran into the better opponent on his 10th encounter then 9:1 should be accurate but this would rarely be the case. Theoretically, it could as easily be the 1st, 6th or 8th player he runs across but these encounters should equalize over time, thus reducing the anticipated K/D to 4.5:1.
This is still higher than our actual experience in the game, therefore other factors must be at work. Since skills among a large group rarely follow a straight line then subscription to the bell curve theory would bring us closer to reality. While this would be too complex a calculation for me without some substantive data, as I said it would get us closer to reality but probably not there yet.
Let's set aside the bell curve for now. We'll come back to it in a moment.
By theroy and extension then, if the 600th player should average 4.5:1 K/D then the 60th player should be at 45:1 and the 6th ranked pilot at 450:1. Finally the top ranked players K/D should equal his # of kills.
If you are a top ranked pilot and aren't near these numbers, then you must actually s*** and the further you are from these numbers the worse you s***. The Bell curve theory simply makes these numbers worse the higher up the rankings you go.
So, I can now state with mathematical accuracy that top ranked players actually s***.
to the great masses of AH, you are truly the best among us.
Alternate theories welcome.
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There are lots of reasons for bad kill to death ratios.
I wont say I'm a great pilot but I feel I've come a long way, however my kill/death ratio is total crap. IMO I know I could have a much better ratio if I was more careful.
Mine sucks but it's mostly from going on missions or from porking fields. If all I did was furball or dog fight I'd likely have a much better kill/death ratio.
Another thing that really hurts mine, is I fly a lot of different planes, some I'm good in others I totally suck in, but am trying to learn. So I don't just pick my favorite plane all the time.
I also tend to up at capped fields trying to fight off attackers, that tends to get you killed a lot. That's about the only time I ever fly a uber plane is the LA7 when a field is getting attacked and I need something fast.
IMO the guys you see with the great kill to death ratios are guys that are score potatos in most cases. They are the guys that never fly out of their comfort zone and IMO very cautious pilots.. They are typically always part of a hoard.
There are a few exceptions to that of course, but in most cases I find it to be true. So IMO a good kill/death ratio isn't really a great example of someone being good.
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I guess if everyone flew timid or never tried to engage without total
advantage then K/D would be a better method of determining skill.
I personally use the "Aw ####!" method.
How quickly after the merge do you say "Aw ####!" knowing that you're
heading to the tower soon :D
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Originally posted by BaldEagl
....By theroy and extension then, if the 600th player should average 4.5:1 K/D then the 60th player should be at 45:1 and the 6th ranked pilot at 450:1. Finally the top ranked players K/D should equal his # of kills....
Flawed... Severely...
Rank/Stats do not say how the players play. It could be 1 vs many or many vs 1. It does not say about risks taken, etc...
That alone makes all your numbers and conclusions about rank and skill irrelevant.
Rank does not tell anything about skill. Nor does K/D.
As such, top ranked player could be one of the best, or just an average stick.
Claim that all high ranked players have no skill is as ridiculous as the claim all high ranked players are the best.
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Just do what I did.
Couple years ago (ish) I tried to keep myself in the top 10 (ish) for @ a year(ish). At one point I spent about a tour or two trying to get the other players in the top 20 to fight me in the DA. I say "try" because soooo many wouldn't go. A few of 'em I had to be pretty abusive to get them to fight me. Granted, I prob. only dueled 20-30 pilots during that time, not all of them, but I did try to focus on the ones that were ranked at least top 20 month in/month out.
What I found.
None of 'em were much above average in a fight. I had no issue beating any of them in a 1 on 1 duel. I never lost a duel. Not one of the top ranked players at the time were particularly good in a stright up even playing field 1 on 1 battle.
I would hazzard a guess not much has changed.
Best overall rank I achieved was 2nd, and that was a huuuuge pain in the tookus to get. Not because it's particularly difficult to achieve a low rank, but because it's soooo boring. All those dull Stuka missions bombing strat got old. Them PT boat runs creeping close to an nme town to lob a couple rockets . The constant field captures (boy I woulda milked the heck out of EW/MW) in an m3, then towering out before the troops take so I could up a goon and get the capture in Bomber Mode. (safer to bring an m3 over a goon. didn't wanna hurt my bomber score by dying)
Dull Dull Dull. HUGE yawn fest.
ANYBODY can do it. ANYBODY can rank top 20 by doing a few simple things. They are dull, boring, time consuming things, but if you wanna take the time, a top rank can be yours. None of the things you have to do to get a top rank takes much "talent" what so ever.
Rank? Y'all can have your ranks. The only time you will ever see me crack the top 50 is if the night before I had "issues" over CV controll. (usually only takes me one day to drop into the top 50 or so)
Rank = Skill/Ability is a joke.
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Originally posted by WMLute
Just do what I did.
Best overall rank I achieved was 2nd, and that was a huuuuge pain in the tookus to get. Not because it's particularly difficult to achieve a low rank, but because it's soooo boring. All those dull Stuka missions bombing strat got old. Them PT boat runs creeping close to an nme town to lob a couple rockets . The constant field captures (boy I woulda milked the heck out of EW/MW) in an m3, then towering out before the troops take so I could up a goon and get the capture in Bomber Mode. (safer to bring an m3 over a goon. didn't wanna hurt my bomber score by dying)
Dull Dull Dull. HUGE yawn fest.
You CAN get into top 20 doing all the above thing, but you don't need to.
One tour I tried to see how far up I can push my rank, so I more or less did the things you mentioned and a few more.
It's was strenous, boring as hell and frustrating, cause it was severly limiting me. "No, I can't fly this or that plane, it will lower my k/d. I cant resupply, because my K/T in vehicles will suffer." or similar considerations. It was an experiment and even failed, for amazingly my rank was not much better at all... ;)
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Originally posted by 2bighorn
Flawed... Severely...
Rank/Stats do not say how the players play. It could be 1 vs many or many vs 1. It does not say about risks taken, etc...
That alone makes all your numbers and conclusions about rank and skill irrelevant.
Rank does not tell anything about skill. Nor does K/D.
As such, top ranked player could be one of the best, or just an average stick.
Claim that all high ranked players have no skill is as ridiculous as the claim all high ranked players are the best.
Ouch. Painful to watch. Someone get Bighorn a pair of pliers and some iodine, that treble hook is in deep.
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score=0, selfish, unrealistic arcade, has nothing to do with ww2 air combat
win the WAR!!! = team play, die and sacrifice with pride for country, makes sense, die?! np, up again, a real warrior must have k/d ratio under 0.1
long live the toolsheders!
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Originally posted by SteveBailey
Ouch. Painful to watch. Someone get Bighorn a pair of pliers and some iodine, that treble hook is in deep.
Uhh, thx Steve, I owe you one
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I used to be rank driven, but no more. I play for fun fly with my squaddies and could care less about rank. I do a little of everything and am profcient in nothing. but I still have fun. Fly and drive what I want. I don't need to get so tightly wrapped up in a game. It is a diversion not a obssesion.:rolleyes:
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has a fighter K/D of 10.75 :D and top ranked players are good,their are some cases where thats not true... #6 and #7 all they can do is go to 20K pick and run 1v1 on the deck and their nothing specal.
:noid :noid :noid
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Originally posted by VansCrew1
has a fighter K/D of 10.75 :D and top ranked players are good,their are some cases where thats not true... #6 and #7 all they can do is go to 20K pick and run 1v1 on the deck and their nothing specal.
Wow talk about a extreme case of the Pot calling the Kettle black.
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(http://www.makezine.com/blog/archive/stop_motion7.gif)
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lol i really yawned while scrolling through this :lol
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Originally posted by Roscoroo
(http://www.makezine.com/blog/archive/stop_motion7.gif)
:lol
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Just a thought on the top ranked pilot discussion,when i fly, i try to land.This adds a little bit of realism to me.Flying and attacking when the odds are way out of your favor,quickly turns into a game of doom or the like.If your called a cherry picker for chosing your time and place to attack,i think your more in line with what real pilots did in ww2,if you always seek the advantage, then excuse me but aren,t you closer to the actually ww2 experience.What is it that makes you a good pilot,great skills or great decision making.In my book its decisison making,so if you can beat a pilot in a dual ,good on yah ,but in my opinion it doesn,t make you a good pilot.
Attacking and killing AND landing makes you a good pilot,bombing when you are needed and landing makes you a good pilot, milk runners and furballers...well to me there not.Just my 2 cents
AULD ole AW pilot called BRULE
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(http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m238/Goldelks/11.gif)
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Originally posted by BaldEagl
That means the 600th ranked fighter pilot would be in the top 10% of all players. By extension, he should be able to beat 9 out of 10 opponents he comes across, thus carrying a 9:1 K/D ratio (negligably less because of the plus one but we'll ignore that for purposes of this discussion).
By theroy and extension then, if the 600th player should average 4.5:1 K/D then the 60th player should be at 45:1 and the 6th ranked pilot at 450:1. Finally the top ranked players K/D should equal his # of kills.
If you are a top ranked pilot and aren't near these numbers, then you must actually s*** and the further you are from these numbers the worse you s***. The Bell curve theory simply makes these numbers worse the higher up the rankings you go.
Serious flaw in your logic. Why would a player ranked in the top 1% have to be ten times better than the person ranked in the 10% range? No rating/ranking system on earth presumes that the "best" in the ranking always defeats all comers 100% of the time.
To use your logic, a Heavyweight Champion boxer with a 48 win 2 loss record really "sucks" because he actually suffered a those two losses. The only way he could possibly be the best is if he is undefeated -- which is just foolish.
It is impossible to mathematically prove who is the best pilot. There are simply too many variables in a population this large. Thus, there is no point in trying.
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The other flaw is that he didn't take into account that deaths while in a fighter can come from ack, bombers, planes flying in attack mode, gvs, crashing, and discos which have nothing to do with other fighter pilots and their K/D ratios.
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Originally posted by brule2
Just a thought on the top ranked pilot discussion,when i fly, i try to land.This adds a little bit of realism to me.Flying and attacking when the odds are way out of your favor,quickly turns into a game of doom or the like.If your called a cherry picker for chosing your time and place to attack,i think your more in line with what real pilots did in ww2,if you always seek the advantage, then excuse me but aren,t you closer to the actually ww2 experience.What is it that makes you a good pilot,great skills or great decision making.In my book its decisison making,so if you can beat a pilot in a dual ,good on yah ,but in my opinion it doesn,t make you a good pilot.
Attacking and killing AND landing makes you a good pilot,bombing when you are needed and landing makes you a good pilot, milk runners and furballers...well to me there not.Just my 2 cents
AULD ole AW pilot called BRULE
Yup, for some that is what makes the game fun. Making all the right decisions at all the right times in air combat guarentees success no matter what the context. Being an especially good stick and/or good shot just means you are more likely to still be successfull even if you make bad decisions. You will always have the chance to pull some great moves or a crazy high deflection shot out of your bag to potentially undo the damage caused by flawed decision making.
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Originally posted by E25280
Serious flaw in your logic. Why would a player ranked in the top 1% have to be ten times better than the person ranked in the 10% range?
Whoops, he caught another one. This one looks to have swallowed the hook. Medic!!!!!!!
:D :aok
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Directed at the original poster. One serious flaw with your determination of K/D as a measure of skill, aside from the fact the majority fly suicidally, is the fact that the higher ranked, presumably more experienced, if not skilled, players tend to log alot more playtime than the unskilled ones. So, your fancifull notion of some sort of even distribution across the spectrum of rankage is a fairy tale. The top 500 people log more time than the bottom 5500 people. So, the chances of any person encountering someone above them on the mythical skill/fighter rank ladder is in reality alot higher than your theory of random and equal distribution suggests accounting for the much more muffled K/D totals at all levels than you propose.
Furthermore, the most skilled players in fighter tend to primarily furball. The less skilled tend to vulch/horde bases for the land-grab missions. So, if all you do is furball you're going to encounter a disproportionately higher percentage of talent. If all you do is dogpile on the lemming horde bang missions , on defense or offense, you're not going to encounter the same high caliber of talent.
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Hmm
Shawk has been in the top two forever. Not only can he fight but in one camp he had a 186 kd. No ditches bails our deaths and also a high KT.
Try that some day. I did but got shot down at kill 75..
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Geez... Bald you are gonna have to start using more stinky bait... you've bagged your limit already.
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Originally posted by FX1
Hmm
Shawk has been in the top two forever. Not only can he fight but in one camp he had a 186 kd. No ditches bails our deaths and also a high KT.
Try that some day. I did but got shot down at kill 75..
Get a horde err squad of shawklets to help you and it's quite doable. Kill the ack, return in a chog, vulch and cherry to your hearts' content. I've witnessed his MO first hand.
That said, Shawk has other MA attributes that most don't mention: he is always scouring the skies for enemy and is very generous with his enemy calls. He's also a pretty darned good shot. :) He's the queen of all scorepotatos, but I love that little mullet guy.
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I for one up from capped bases. Doesn't reflect my skill level but hard headed-ness.
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Originally posted by brule2
Just a thought on the top ranked pilot discussion,when i fly, i try to land.This adds a little bit of realism to me.Flying and attacking when the odds are way out of your favor,quickly turns into a game of doom or the like.If your called a cherry picker for chosing your time and place to attack,i think your more in line with what real pilots did in ww2,if you always seek the advantage, then excuse me but aren,t you closer to the actually ww2 experience.What is it that makes you a good pilot,great skills or great decision making.In my book its decisison making,so if you can beat a pilot in a dual ,good on yah ,but in my opinion it doesn,t make you a good pilot.
Attacking and killing AND landing makes you a good pilot,bombing when you are needed and landing makes you a good pilot, milk runners and furballers...well to me there not.Just my 2 cents
AULD ole AW pilot called BRULE
this is one of the funnest remarks of piloting skillz i ever read.
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Originally posted by brule2
Just a thought on the top ranked pilot discussion,when i fly, i try to land.This adds a little bit of realism to me.Flying and attacking when the odds are way out of your favor,quickly turns into a game of doom or the like.If your called a cherry picker for chosing your time and place to attack,i think your more in line with what real pilots did in ww2,if you always seek the advantage, then excuse me but aren,t you closer to the actually ww2 experience.What is it that makes you a good pilot,great skills or great decision making.In my book its decisison making,so if you can beat a pilot in a dual ,good on yah ,but in my opinion it doesn,t make you a good pilot.
Attacking and killing AND landing makes you a good pilot,bombing when you are needed and landing makes you a good pilot, milk runners and furballers...well to me there not.Just my 2 cents
AULD ole AW pilot called BRULE
Of late, I've been upping and taking jug 13k-15k or so to the middle of biggest red dar bar---1st priority being to get home alive..it's fun, but I haven't been getting home near as much,nor getting as many kills:( Was thinkin about that as I watch nits roll over southern rook land last night in blue...HOW much fun can it be to fly in a 50 plane horde with no visible enemy to shoot at?(Apparently it DOES help k/d...)
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lawL he said shawklets :lol
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IMO there is NOT 1 stat that can determine whether a guy is a good or bad pilot. Way to many variables. If you look at a guys score to make your determination then your not a very smart person. If you have flown AH for more than a few months you learn who is good or not so good by just playing the game. I know which players can fly these cartoon planes good and who isn't so good. There stats don't mean squat to me.
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Well, just to show how silly it is, A few tours back I finished in the 700s for fighter rank and would have been higher but I didn't get to play most of the last week. Me, in the top 1000? Whatever. I had to play really timid to do that and, while challenging for a diversion, I can't do it regularly cause it takes to much concentration. I'd much rather jump into the nearest furball. Also K/D doesn't take into account picks. I've shot down some big name sticks in furballs as they were targets of opportunity. Has nothing to do with skill level.
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LOL Bald, Got to love these type of posts. I have to assume u say I stink (using a more polite word) since I ranked 9th. Now I not saying I the best at all because I am not but I will promise u that I don't stink (again using a more polite word). Your k/d talk is bogus.
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Theres like 5 things fighter ranks is measure by, K/D is only 1--I got kilt by a guy in same plane as I the other night, so I went to check his stats in that plane...50 kills...4 deaths..DAAYYYUMMM...then I looked at the other stuff---less than 3 kills per hour---thus he is timid, flies in horde/stays at 20k all day....or combinations of all
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i dont rank anyone by there score..cause alot of people{like me} cant fly all day to stay in the top 10..lol..i have got in the top 10 a few time..only when i was not working...but while im working i have no time to work on my score..barly have a hour a day if im lucky to have fun:)
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Originally posted by crockett
There are lots of reasons for bad kill to death ratios.
Like cherry pickin dweebs...
Im like 200th or something Fighter rank, and a k/d of 2.5ish and can say it is always an up n' down thing. Early in the month I had a 6:1 k/d... Mostly I'll kill five and land 'em, then get ganged on the next flight w/ 0 kills. It's the way it is imo
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I do have a life to. I work 6am- 2:30pm. I get home around 3. Due yard work and play with the kids. Then I sit down after dinner and have fun flying/killing. After playing AH, I then have fun with the wife. hehehehe. Got to keep her happy or there no playing for me.:lol :aok
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akdogg posting obsceneties on bbs again naughty naughty :o :lol
trust my word dogg is no pushover 1 on 1:aok
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OMG, I can't believe so many of you took my crock of sh** theory as some sort of legitimate post! :rofl :rofl :rofl
Now, allow me to indulge you with my theories on Internet retardation and the male ego. :rofl
:aok
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Originally posted by FX1
Hmm
Shawk has been in the top two forever. Not only can he fight but in one camp he had a 186 kd. No ditches bails our deaths and also a high KT.
Try that some day. I did but got shot down at kill 75..
I like SHawk
I think hes a decent pilot.
Nowhere even close to what he is ranked. but hes a pretty decent pilot.
certainly above average
He also tends to fly with alot of protection around him
Makes it a bit easier
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Originally posted by BaldEagl
OMG, I can't believe so many of you took my crock of sh** theory as some sort of legitimate post! :rofl :rofl :rofl
Now, allow me to indulge you with my theories on Internet retardation and the male ego. :rofl
:aok
Hey, since you're being open here, how does it feel to be a dork?:aok
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:rofl
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Originally posted by SkyRock
Hey, since you're being open here, how does it feel to be a dork?:aok
I actually thought people had a sense of humor. I guess not. Steve seems to be the only one who saw it for what it was; a joke.
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Originally posted by BaldEagl
I actually thought people had a sense of humor. I guess not. Steve seems to be the only one who saw it for what it was; a joke.
:aok
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Originally posted by BaldEagl
I actually thought people had a sense of humor. I guess not. Steve seems to be the only one who saw it for what it was; a joke.
Dorks can tell jokes too, I have nothing against that. Now, tell us more, indulge us!:aok
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Originally posted by BaldEagl
OMG, I can't believe so many of you took my crock of sh** theory as some sort of legitimate post! :rofl :rofl :rofl
Now, allow me to indulge you with my theories on Internet retardation and the male ego. :rofl
:aok
Exactly mate....... I thought your post was a humours tongue in cheek piss take. Good punch line.
I do look forward to your other theory.:D
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who gives a rat's bellybutton about rank?! :confused:
If your K/D > 4, you are not really fighting.
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Originally posted by bozon
If your K/D > 4, you are not really fighting.
:rofl :aok
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Originally posted by LYNX
Exactly mate....... I thought your post was a humours tongue in cheek piss take. Good punch line.
I do look forward to your other theory.:D
I love to listen to Lynx talk:D ..don't even understand what half of it means
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Originally posted by bj229r
I love to listen to Lynx talk:D ..don't even understand what half of it means
Exactly mate....... I thought your post was a humours tongue in cheek piss take. Good punch line.
Here ... let me help you ...
Exactly bud....... I thought your post was mockingly funny in a joking way. Good punch line.
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Originally posted by ghi
score=0, selfish, unrealistic arcade, has nothing to do with ww2 air combat
win the WAR!!! = team play, die and sacrifice with pride for country, makes sense, die?! np, up again, a real warrior must have k/d ratio under 0.1
long live the toolsheders!
BRAVO GHI!
:aok
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to busy looking at HONDO's avatar to even read what he said...:rolleyes: :rofl
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Originally posted by LYNX
I do look forward to your other theory.:D
Oops, that was a joke too. I guess if I have to keep telling people they're jokes from now on I'll use a :aok whenever I do so you all know.
DA? :aok
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Originally posted by BaldEagl
Oops, that was a joke too. I guess if I have to keep telling people they're jokes from now on I'll use a :aok whenever I do so you all know.
DA? :aok
Or you can use one of these----:D ---like Lnyx does.
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Originally posted by ghi
score=0, selfish, unrealistic arcade, has nothing to do with ww2 air combat
win the WAR!!! = team play, die and sacrifice with pride for country, makes sense, die?! np, up again, a real warrior must have k/d ratio under 0.1
long live the toolsheders!
and this comes from a man who makes missions then switches sides to vulch his mission that he made...lol
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What lute said.
Flying for rank is boring snoring. Anyone can do it, anyone can get into top 100 of rank in 2 days. But, it takes a variety of stuff. Some GV runs, lvt capture of a port or V field with a kill is the best. ie if you can get someone to auger after you ping him twice so you are awarded the kill, thats golden. Then go on & get the capture. I never bothered jumping to bomber for the capture. That always seemed just a smidge too lame.
Then run a bomber run or 4 to a enemy strat target. Training is best, ju-88's and lancs are good.
Then its time to do some attack runs, need to kill some objects, barracks, fuel, city, etc, get a vulch or 3 and go home. Be careful, don't die.
Rinse and repeat as needed. And after a couple of months of doing that you too may be ready to say. "Rank sucks and score is meaningless"
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Originally posted by Rino
I guess if everyone flew timid or never tried to engage without total
advantage then K/D would be a better method of determining skill.
I personally use the "Aw ####!" method.
How quickly after the merge do you say "Aw ####!" knowing that you're
heading to the tower soon :D
:rofl