Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Russian on October 02, 2007, 01:47:09 PM
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http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ec6_1191054217
Anyone care to take a guess by what? It seems missile is mounted on a truck and burn time for rocket-motor is around 16 seconds.
Location according to GPS coordinates on screen is http://maps.google.com/maps?ie=UTF8&ll=30.990278,46.0640967&spn=2.301728,5.141602&z=8&om=1
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There is porn on that site.
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Originally posted by Russian
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ec6_1191054217
Anyone care to take a guess by what? It seems missile is mounted on a truck and burn time for rocket-motor is around 16 seconds.
Location according to GPS coordinates on screen is http://maps.google.com/maps?ie=UTF8&ll=30.990278,46.0640967&spn=2.301728,5.141602&z=8&om=1
Not quite. That UAV is at 22,000 feet. Lets give it a best case scenario of it being an SA-16 igla. You've got a maximum slant range of 5000 meters, and a maximum altitude of 3500 meters. That still brings you a good 7000 feet short and a probability of kill close to 0, even if it has excess energy on the climb.
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That's one hell of a zoom on that UAV.
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Friggin' UAV warper. Warped away every time the missile got on the UAV's six.
ack-ack
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Originally posted by Wolfala
Not quite. That UAV is at 22,000 feet. Lets give it a best case scenario of it being an SA-16 igla. You've got a maximum slant range of 5000 meters, and a maximum altitude of 3500 meters. That still brings you a good 7000 feet short and a probability of kill close to 0, even if it has excess energy on the climb.
From my quick calculations using web-calculator, range of SAM to UAV is almost 12,000 meters (assuming AGL is near MSL) using 54deg angle displayed oon screen. The motor burned for 16 seconds and missile impact 28 seconds after launch.
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Originally posted by Russian
From my quick calculations using web-calculator, range of SAM to UAV is almost 12,000 meters (assuming AGL is near MSL) using 54deg angle displayed oon screen. The motor burned for 16 seconds and missile impact 28 seconds after launch.
Dim,
The slant range is written in the lower right of the FLIR. (edit) 12,000 meters toward the end of the vid at zoom out Thats 7.2 miles slant range without taking the altitude into account. The PK is 0 and there is no shoot down. Additionally, the SA-16 self destructs after 25 seconds. The SA-18 blows up at 15 seconds.
Do a reach back to the case studies of TWA-800 when they were investigating the PK of a MANPAD against a 747 at 16000 feet. The PK was so low because of the slant range and altitude that it was labeled inconceivable. Now, the UAV - 7000 feet higher, your telling me that it was hit - when a MANPAD couldn't hit a 747 in a steady climb 7000 feet lower?
Comeon.
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Originally posted by Wolfala
Dim,
The slant range is written in the lower right of the FLIR. 4.51 nautical miles. Thats 7200 meters slant range without taking the altitude into account. I studied this **** in college - I am right, you are wrong. The PK is 0 and there is no shoot down.
I'm not arguing who is right or who is wrong. What does it mean - 4.51nm and 54 degree angle?
I assume that angle is off of FLIR camera. Which means 6700meters / (COS 54 deg) = ~12000 meters.
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OK, could be a way point its orbiting. When the camera zooms out, it shows 12,000 meters for about 1/2 a sec, in which case the PK is even less then 0 with a doubling of the slant range and altitude problem.
See previous.
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the UAV is well within range of most manpads:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/manpads.htm
note most of the ranges listed on GS are unclassified...
Well within range of Iglas etc... even improved SA-14's could hit a slow < 300mph loitering UAV.
DoctorYo
PS : Im thinking SA-16 or 18 due to burn time...
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Originally posted by DoctorYO
the UAV is well within range of most manpads:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/manpads.htm
note most of the ranges listed on GS are unclassified...
Well within range of Iglas etc... even improved SA-14's could hit a slow < 300mph loitering UAV.
DoctorYo
PS : Im thinking SA-16 or 18 due to burn time...
Both 16 and SA18 self-destruct is no-where near 28 seconds. I'm thinking this is not even an IR missile.
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Originally posted by DoctorYO
the UAV is well within range of most manpads:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/manpads.htm
note most of the ranges listed on GS are unclassified...
Well within range of Iglas etc... even improved SA-14's could hit a slow < 300mph loitering UAV.
DoctorYo
PS : Im thinking SA-16 or 18 due to burn time...
I can't find a single missile with a slant range of 12,000 meters and an altitude above 17,000 feet. Highest slant range I can get is 5000 meters and 3500 meters altitude, with the exception of 1 igla varient that can reach 17,000 feet.
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Forget slant range... and other classroom garbage...
Just by eyeballing when the flir zoomed back out:
Its in range... (fast moving attack aircraft going 400mph+ with escape vector then you start talking effective range)
These weapons go a long way.. Effective range is just that against fast movers..(note unclassified) against slow movers without getting into details it is much greater hence the CIV air threat manpads dictate.
Slow moving thing = no chance... and considering the angle you keep expressing higher angle is bad for the target, less escape vector. (thats is unless your in a f15/f22 and just point up and out energy the thing. UAV does not have that capability.)
Quick exp:
Effective range on a m16a2 is about 550m while the .223 goes a hell of alot farther... 3600m
Draw your own conclusions, Lucky shot :P
DoctorYo
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I think it's a SA-19. Specs match...but WTF is it doing in Iraq.
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sa-19.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/sa-19-specs.htm
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Originally posted by Russian
...but WTF is it doing in Iraq.
gee, i don't know , maybe Iran "misplaced" one of their missiles.
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I'm punching out of this 1. Check the loss reports on 10/14/2002. It didn't happen. Count the time from time of launch to when the video ends. Its around 30 seconds. Check the destruct times on the SA-14,16 and 18.
SA-19 wouldn't be in theater since its part of the 2S6 system. They've only been to Belarus, India, Morocco, Myanmar, Russia...and of course Ukraine. Not Iran, and its not the easiest thing to drive across a boarder without getting noticed.
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Originally posted by Wolfala
I'm punching out of this 1. Check the loss reports on 10/14/2002. It didn't happen. Count the time from time of launch to when the video ends. Its around 30 seconds. Check the destruct times on the SA-14,16 and 18.
SA-19 wouldn't be in theater since its part of the 2S6 system. They've only been to Belarus, India, Morocco, Myanmar, Russia...and of course Ukraine. Not Iran, and its not the easiest thing to drive across a boarder without getting noticed.
How did you managed to date this video to 10/14/2002?
And it does look a bit like this image, but as you said, that system shouldn't be in that theater. http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sa-19-pantsyr-img016.jpg
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Go 5 seconds into the video, it shows the time in UTC, and then switches over to the date just to the left of the waypoint display in the lower right. The Pantsyr was still in trials when this video was shot. The UAE ordered a few in 2000 and got the early versions in 2004, Syria in 2007 as well as Jordan.
Bottom line, it was not in service at the time this video was shot.
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so the video is fake?
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Originally posted by Wolfala
I can't find a single missile with a slant range of 12,000 meters and an altitude above 17,000 feet.
That's because you assume it's shoulder fired missile.
Look at the launch blast. Way too big for something like Igla.
Doesn't have to be SA-19. Could be anything else of similar size, like FM-80, etc...
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First,
I dont think the flir time and the liveleak video time are the same, codecs when uploaded transfered etc..
Second if any of you classroom fellas been to a live-fire....? the said self destruct doesn't always go off on cue.. its more like a guideline than reality.
But since your stressing these things I already have my answer to the live-fire question.
and third most radar based weapons dont do the bottlerocket shuffle, that the missle is doing.. they do trajectory to intercept. (saves fuel increases range) not the shuffle.
It looks like its being fired from pickup truck.. wheres the radar... i looked at the tape a few times.. radar guided missiles need big radars..
Looks like some dude on the back of a pickup firing a manpad..
And by visual reference target is well within range.. manpads are no joke ... these systems work.. hence their threat.. Modern manpads aren't the freaking Redeye garbage.
DoctorYo
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Doc,
On this point I agree with you. I am going by the FLIR time - starting at 0655:20 and ending sometime around :46 or 48.
Second with regard to Proportional Navigation which that missile is doing: PN dictates that the missile velocity vector should rotate at a rate proportional to the rotation rate of the line of sight (Line-Of-Sight rate or LOS-rate), and in the same direction. So large energy blowing moves starting off and then nulling the rate the longer the seeker is slaved to the track.
This hasn't changed much except in the Stinger and Igla series of MANPADS. I know MANPADS - its what I did my thesis on. My friend and classmate Lt. Brian Slavenas was killed by a SA-7 while piloting a CH-47 in November 2003 right around the time they became popular in Iraq.
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Originally posted by DoctorYO
any of you classroom fellas been to a live-fire
aye
Originally posted by DoctorYO
and third most radar based weapons dont do the bottlerocket shuffle, that the missle is doing.. they do trajectory to intercept. (saves fuel increases range) not the shuffle.
Missiles like Shahab Thaqeb (iranian HQ-7 copy) have triple guidance systems (radar, IR and optical), which one is used (1, 2, all) depends on what kind of pad are launched from.
Originally posted by DoctorYO
It looks like its being fired from pickup truck.. wheres the radar... i looked at the tape a few times..
Truck looks bigger than pickup.
Originally posted by DoctorYO
radar guided missiles need big radars..
bout 2 ft diameter, placed between rocket pods
Originally posted by DoctorYO
Looks like some dude on the back of a pickup firing a manpad..
Looks to me like truck mounted multiple launcher.
Originally posted by DoctorYO
And by visual reference target is well within range.. manpads are no joke ... these systems work.. hence their threat.. Modern manpads aren't the freaking Redeye garbage.
agreed
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Look at the shadow the truck casts. There appears to be a fairly long singular 'rail' projecting up towards the UAV from which the rocket was launched.
I'm no expert like you gents but the shadow cast reminds me of this:
(http://www.photius.com/images/fi05_05b.jpg)
(SA-3)