Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => Aces High General Discussion => Topic started by: shamroc on October 03, 2007, 06:51:12 PM
-
Awhile back I was flying in the MA and I came upon about 5-6 friendlies ganging up against a lone enemy.
There were other friendlies milling around watching, and one of them made a comment along the lines of :
"Wow - poor guy - that's 6 to 1 odds".
I basically thought to myself ? "6 to 1 ?!?! Try like 64 to 1 at best pal!"
Anyways, here's my reasoning:
A single fight (let's assume to the finish) has basically two outcomes. Win or Lose.
2 possible outcomes - hence 2 to 1 odds.
Using basic math, it follows that:
1 vs 2 = 2 x 2 = 4 to 1 odds
1 vs 3 = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8 to 1 odds
1 vs 4 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16 to 1 odds
1 vs 5 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 32 to 1 odds
1 vs 6 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 64 to 1 odds
...and so on...
The above also assumes EQUAL skill, luck, advantage and aircraft. More importantly, it assumes that all the bad guys wait their turn and attack you one after the other (each attack being an isolated fight to the finish).
Given that in any good gangbang, everyone attacks at the same time, I was just wondering (given that I'm not that great at that deep-thinking-n-brain stuff), if anyone had a more realistic (and sound) way to calculate the odds of surviving a gangbang.
Shamroc
-
I have my own calculations.
Me + 1 Enemy = Fun fight
Me + 2 Enemy = Funner Fight
Me + 3 Enemy = Uh oh
Me + 4 Enemy = Where'd everyone go? (but I won 1 of these fights once :D )
Me + 5 or more Enemy = RUN! RUN AWAY!!!
:D
That's how I calculate survival
-
math is for nerds and HiTech
:D :p
-
who cares? if you continually do that you improve in the area that is important namely surviving a turn fight. measure your progress in the seconds that you last and the number that you take with you before upping a new cartoon plane. just fight, it's a game.
-
ok tell me the odds making 350 kills in one tour without dying, bailing or getting captured?
then tell me the odds of getting 101 kills, 122 kills and 152 kills and then dying at the start of a tour :D
-
Someone has waaaaay too much time on his hands.
-
Originally posted by storch
who cares? if you continually do that you improve in the area that is important namely surviving a turn fight. measure your progress in the seconds that you last and the number that you take with you before upping a new cartoon plane. just fight, it's a game.
Very true. i noticed you were up to 4 seconds the other night :rofl bhaaaahahahahahaha
-
Originally posted by dedalos
Very true. i noticed you were up to 4 seconds the other night :rofl bhaaaahahahahahaha
yup against two pretty good players. I noticed it took me .25 seconds to kill you when it was reversed. :rofl change your handle to icaros you crash better than you fly. :D
-
odds that my comp locks up.......once every 1.8 hours.:(
-
All I can say is that winning a 5 on 1 is priceless :aok
-
Originally posted by shamroc
Awhile back I was flying in the MA and I came upon about 5-6 friendlies ganging up against a lone enemy.
There were other friendlies milling around watching, and one of them made a comment along the lines of :
"Wow - poor guy - that's 6 to 1 odds".
I basically thought to myself ? "6 to 1 ?!?! Try like 64 to 1 at best pal!"
Anyways, here's my reasoning:
A single fight (let's assume to the finish) has basically two outcomes. Win or Lose.
2 possible outcomes - hence 2 to 1 odds.
Using basic math, it follows that:
1 vs 2 = 2 x 2 = 4 to 1 odds
1 vs 3 = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8 to 1 odds
1 vs 4 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16 to 1 odds
1 vs 5 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 32 to 1 odds
1 vs 6 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 64 to 1 odds
...and so on...
The above also assumes EQUAL skill, luck, advantage and aircraft. More importantly, it assumes that all the bad guys wait their turn and attack you one after the other (each attack being an isolated fight to the finish).
Given that in any good gangbang, everyone attacks at the same time, I was just wondering (given that I'm not that great at that deep-thinking-n-brain stuff), if anyone had a more realistic (and sound) way to calculate the odds of surviving a gangbang.
Shamroc
I don't take time to asess the odds like that i see it like latrobe
1-2 i'll take on, 3 i'll fight if i gotta, 4 shoot down as many as i can, 5+ DIVE AND RUN
I look at my skills in the plane i'm in, compared to the other planes capabilities (it's pretty easy seeing as how i'm usually in a corsair or p47-25
it's pretty obvious a spitty can outturn a p47 at 2k :P) and that's how i figure my "odds of survival"
-
Interesting, but you're talking about two different things. The first one that the guy was refering to was the 'numerical' odds the guy was facing, which was 6 to 1.
What you're refering to is the odds of probability of the 'outcome' of facing 6 to 1 odds.
Two completely different, though not unrelated, things.
-
I have a simple formula.
The odds of surviving a gang bang unscathed are inversely proportional to the number of Peter North's flying around and ho'n away.
Odds go way down from that vantage - since a HO and its variants mostly go from 1 guy fires and the other guy ducks and prays for a 1 pass and haul bellybutton out of the area.
-
Wrong question, your trying to calculate probability of survival.
What you should be figuring out is how to measure fun.
1 on 1 no interruptions, fairly even planes, fight comes down to pilot skill = 100 fun.
1 vs 2 it got pretty hairy, but thanks to a alt advantage you prevailed = 200 fun.
More than 2 in your airspace at any given time and you have to calculate fun in SECONDS. So at 1 fun per second per enemy plane, if you stay alive in a 6 on 1 for 2 min. 2 min = 120 seconds, x 6 = 720 fun. Now you can add modifiers for planes if you really want to go that far.
Add a 50 fun bonus for each enemy death you cause. Subtract 50 when your imminent demise finally happens. As you see its possible to rack up some pretty serious FUN here folks! And really, isn't that what this whole thing is all about?
Grin
-
We should have Fun Points to pay for planes. ;)
-
Originally posted by storch
yup against two pretty good players. I noticed it took me .25 seconds to kill you when it was reversed. :rofl change your handle to icaros you crash better than you fly. :D
Well, I have twice in the past. No one could figure out who I was :rofl
-
In my experience, I seem to have a 1 in 100 chance of surviving any fight, regardless of the situation. :confused:
-
Originally posted by dedalos
Well, I have twice in the past. No one could figure out who I was :rofl
:lol
-
Originally posted by Citabria
ok tell me the odds making 350 kills in one tour without dying, bailing or getting captured?
99% when you are vulching a shade or good friend. There's always that 1% chance of accidentally augering
-
Chances of getting a good free laugh when Dedalos and storch on on the same thread, - 100%.
-
That's what i do love about this game, that skill plays such a major factor..
My personal odds in a fight..
I consider myself a "angle E fighter" jack of all trades.
5 on 1 all newbs bring it on.. If their is one vet in the group then that's another story.
Kill the biggest threat first and work from their.
Give them a look then kill them.
Make your first shot count every time. Your aim is 50% of the fight.
Work your E when needed and fight in the vert.
Always always kill the vet first if you can ID him. Even if it compromises your advantage or puts you in the sight of a newb. One vet equals 5 newbs!
Why a spit 16? Can you say 10 on 1. I dont like the idea of blaming my plane if i do make a mistake. If i die its because i made the mistake or got out flown. To many people whine about getting beat and think its ok because they fly a p40. My reply to those pilots "your dead"..
Its all about the dance!
RTB with bullets and fuel.. Hell No
RTB with bullets holes and a grin from ear to ear..
-
dedalos vs the horde (http://www.youtube.com/?v=33OJFOTb05U)
that cat is fast as...........
-
Originally posted by storch
dedalos vs the horde (http://www.youtube.com/?v=33OJFOTb05U)
that cat is fast as...........
What the heck was that????
That was painful to watch. I never saw a limp wristed kung fu fighter before.
I did love it when she put that cream on his back and he flinched like he was shot. It must have been really cold.:lol
-
Originally posted by storch
dedalos vs the horde (http://www.youtube.com/?v=33OJFOTb05U)
that cat is fast as...........
:furious :furious :furious
I cant watch it at work
-
Originally posted by dedalos
:furious :furious :furious
I cant watch it at work
Believe me... you can wait.
-
Originally posted by SkyRock
odds that my comp locks up.......once every 1.8 hours.:(
Or the Odds that I can be the closest guy that gets the proxie:D
-
Originally posted by storch
dedalos vs the horde (http://www.youtube.com/?v=33OJFOTb05U)
that cat is fast as...........
I guess Storch would be the guy with the red belt???
-
Originally posted by VERTEX
I guess Storch would be the guy with the red belt???
dedalos and storch vs the horde (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ9e3Dy7obA)
I'm the old fat guy of course :D