Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: lazs2 on February 27, 2008, 08:31:20 AM
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Russian scientists are all saying that there is no such thing as man made global warming... at least not to any significant degree. that our "contribution" pales in relation to the real thermostat.. "IT'S THE SUN STUPID" is pretty much what they are saying.
I can't disagree with em. It makes the most sense.. the co2 math just doesn't add up sooo.. what else could it be?
I think that in the case of science.. we can no longer look to western scientists who have politicized science.. who are potatos for grants and anyone paying them. the russian ones may be the only ones doing pure science anymore.
I think this is a reversal.. I believe that in the cold war it was reversed.. I think now.. now that the russians are the only ones who don't have an agenda in this.. that I have to go with them on it.
http://ibdeditorial.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=287279412587175
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1967753/posts
http://elpub.wdcb.ru/journals/rjes/v09/2007ES000250/0.shtml
http://aftermathnews.wordpress.com/2008/01/30/russian-scientist-says-earth-could-soon-face-new-ice-age/
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Originally posted by lazs2
I think that in the case of science.. we can no longer look to western scientists who have politicized science.. who are potatos for grants and anyone paying them. the russian ones may be the only ones doing pure science anymore.
I think this is a reversal.. I believe that in the cold war it was reversed.. I think now.. now that the russians are the only ones who don't have an agenda in this.. that I have to go with them on it.
Lazs, I work in Academy of Science, and what you said about "pure science" was true about Soviet science, not modern Russian.
People are fighting for grants just because they don't get paid. Now it's better then 5 years ago, but doctor of science (a degree higher then your PhD) earning $400 monthly is a joke. It's enough to be on the edge of starvation if you live alone. I am an IT engineer, and I earn about $200, don;t know exactly, it's enough for beer and tobacco only.
At the same time our institute got some interesting equipment, like a spectrometer that costs $25 million, there are only 4 machines like that in Europe... I think it was "aquired" for some commercial project.
Current regime wants to kill science as a nuisance, it doesn't bring money. Look, Stalin understood that science is necessary, while our new crooks at the top don't care about the future, and our "business" sponsors astrology instead of us.
An Internet channel in our institute was sponsored by Soros and (drumroll!!!) NATO back in 1996.
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LOL
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That'll leave a mark.
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OMG :rofl
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What I said above doesn't mean that "MMGW" exists. I'll rely on that Russian scientists reports.
Climate research here is still payed, we have abandoned many meteo-stations, but it's still vital, like Arctic ice prognosis. We need it for Northern Sea Route navigation.
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Ok... let me get it straight then..
We disagree that on the political agenda of old soviet science compared to today.
But....
We agree that current russian science is more pure science than western politicized science?
I can't imagine that russian scientists are getting grant money to do climate research where it would make any difference at all what outcome that they came up with... for instance.. they would do the research you are talking about because understanding is important to them but there would be no point in tainting it. That is my take in any case.
lazs
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LOL again.
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Lazs, I wonder who is more "idealistic" - you or me?...
You quote astronomers, they are 100% insane - and don't accept money to fake their results.
Russia can sell it's "greenhouse gas" quotes according to Kyoto treaty. We had a dramatic 50-70% decrease in industrial production since 1990, so we don;t need faking climate research results.
My point was that we don't have "happy pure science" since 1990. But surely our scientists don't share Western political agenda. We have our own :( Nano-technology as a national project, my ass!...
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Disclaimer: I am only a support personell, technician. But I see "money flows" and I know who gets the money first.
So far repairing floor tiles gets 10 times more money then all IT.
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I don't know.. I am wondering just what kind of scientist I would look to when it comes to solar activity.. it would seem that an astronomer would be the way to go.
I am wondering how russia would gain by any conclusion, one way or the other, that they came up with on man made global warming.
Perhaps curval knows?
lazs
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Originally posted by Boroda
Disclaimer: I am only a support personell, technician. But I see "money flows" and I know who gets the money first.
So far repairing floor tiles gets 10 times more money then all IT.
Boroda,
Despite all our differences, I definitely hate to hear that. Striving to the best in what you want to do only to find that you can not make a living has got to be the most disappointing feeling there can be. I hope things get better for you.
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Originally posted by Bodhi
Boroda,
Despite all our differences, I definitely hate to hear that. Striving to the best in what you want to do only to find that you can not make a living has got to be the most disappointing feeling there can be. I hope things get better for you.
Thank You.
I hope you understand that I have some extra-income. I stay at my Institute because I have an office in a good place, and I officially work for govt (that isn't true, i don;t get any extra money that govt employees get. Science is literally left to starve). I am self-employed, "contractor", sometimes earning my moth salary in RAS for one day of consulting/fixing things up.
I do all I can for our scientists, most of the Institute's servers are made from a trash-can, we spend our own money and hardware on our network. Plus our aquaintances/connections to make it work somehow.
One client of mine, two visits monthly 4 hours each, gives me more money then my official job. I take 1000 rubles just for a visit when I look at the problem without doing anything, it's 1/4 of my monthly salary. But I can't remember the last time when I didn;t solve the problem and took only 1000 rubles ;)
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Originally posted by lazs2
I don't know.. I am wondering just what kind of scientist I would look to when it comes to solar activity.. it would seem that an astronomer would be the way to go.
I am wondering how russia would gain by any conclusion, one way or the other, that they came up with on man made global warming.
Very true.
Hard to scare a nation where 65% of the land is permafrost with global warming.
I already said that I prefer MMGW to another Ice Age. It was 2km of ice over Moscow...
All our machinery, greenhouse gas, thermonuclear weapons etc are nothing compared to one Krakatau volcano explosion. Or to power of tropical cyclones.
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Originally posted by Boroda
All our machinery, greenhouse gas, thermonuclear weapons etc are nothing compared to one Krakatau volcano explosion. Or to power of tropical cyclones.
Need to be careful there...the power of a thermonuclear weapon might be less than a Krakatau explosion, but I bet that adding ALL of them together approaches, if not exceeds it.
Plus, the real danger is not the explosion...but all the Strontium (and other nuclei) running around in the atmosphere.
I could see that Russian scientists could be biased in the completely opposite manner of Western or US scientists. Whereas we get money to investigate climate change, the Russian agenda might be pro-development, anti-Kyoto.
Nothing wrong with that...but still a 'motivation'.
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Originally posted by kamilyun
Need to be careful there...the power of a thermonuclear weapon might be less than a Krakatau explosion, but I bet that adding ALL of them together approaches, if not exceeds it.
Plus, the real danger is not the explosion...but all the Strontium (and other nuclei) running around in the atmosphere.
Thermonuclear weapons are quite ecologically-clean.
Did you hear anything about "nuclear winter"?
Originally posted by kamilyun
I could see that Russian scientists could be biased in the completely opposite manner of Western or US scientists. Whereas we get money to investigate climate change, the Russian agenda might be pro-development, anti-Kyoto.
Nothing wrong with that...but still a 'motivation'.
We just don't care.
IMHO MMGW is just another toll to stop development of industrial (not post-industrial) countries.
hmmm I wonder is Russian Federation an industrial country or not?... With all our decay and "destroyka". Siberian oil-fields could be developed only by a huge corporation like USSR, current "owners' don't invest into development, they just burn 50 years of national effort... /*I hope you understand what I mean*/
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Originally posted by lazs2
I don't know.. I am wondering just what kind of scientist I would look to when it comes to solar activity.. it would seem that an astronomer would be the way to go.
I am wondering how russia would gain by any conclusion, one way or the other, that they came up with on man made global warming.
Perhaps curval knows?
lazs
I don't know about curval... but imho, Russia gains from claiming MMGW doesn't exist because Russia is now one of the largest suppliers of fossil fuels in the world (both oil, and natural gas). If people in europe (their biggest clients) start seeking alternative energy sources, Russia loses out not only financially but politically too. Right now, Russia's ability to shut off the gas to most of eastern europe, and parts of western europe means that they are a force to be reckoned with.
Just my $.02
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Originally posted by Boroda
Look, Stalin understood that science is necessary
Isn't Stalin the same guy who threw alot of his scientists in jail?
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Originally posted by DYNAMITE
I don't know about curval... but imho, Russia gains from claiming MMGW doesn't exist because Russia is now one of the largest suppliers of fossil fuels in the world (both oil, and natural gas). If people in europe (their biggest clients) start seeking alternative energy sources, Russia loses out not only financially but politically too. Right now, Russia's ability to shut off the gas to most of eastern europe, and parts of western europe means that they are a force to be reckoned with.
Just my $.02
Fossil "fuel" is not only fuel. Natural carbohydrates should be used in chemical industry. We burn oil - and it's like heating your fireplace with $100 bills.
Look, it's Capitalism, demand and offer. We can burn Western Europe and North America into ashes in a matter of minutes, but we prefer to sell gas and oil.
Alternative energy sources? Electricity used to produce aluminum for wind-generators is much more then they can give in their lifetime. Roof-top water heaters are the only good natural alternative energy supply. And they work only if you live in a god-blessed place where temperature never drops below freezing.
Thermonuclear reactor is the only choice, but Tokamak-15 and other projects were deliberately killed.
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Originally posted by trax1
Isn't Stalin the same guy who threw alot of his scientists in jail?
Sure I have seen this jail.
I work in Semenov's institute. Next door to Physical Problems Institute, Peter Kapitsa, both - Nobel Prize winners. Kapitsa was "exiled" by Evil Stalin (tm). I wish I could be exiled to live in a park in a center of Moscow...
We have our technological hot-spot in Kapitsa's lab. It's freaking awesome. Jail my ass!...
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Originally posted by Boroda
but Tokamak-15 and other projects were deliberately killed.
Just as in USofA.....fusion projects do not get enough funding....
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Originally posted by Russian
Just as in USofA.....fusion projects do not get enough funding....
Tokamak-15 was supposed to be built in 1992. In fact - it was built. Scrapped for aluminum and copper in a matter of months.... :(
Now we participate in another joint Euro-Russian-Japanese project supposed to produce enough power to sustain it's own work, just as T-15 was supposed to work 16 years ago.
I expect a working thermonuclear reactor to appear in PRC in 5-10 years. I mean - an industrial power-station based on a thermonuclear reactor.
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Originally posted by Boroda
Sure I have seen this jail.
I work in Semenov's institute. Next door to Physical Problems Institute, Peter Kapitsa, both - Nobel Prize winners. Kapitsa was "exiled" by Evil Stalin (tm). I wish I could be exiled to live in a park in a center of Moscow...
We have our technological hot-spot in Kapitsa's lab. It's freaking awesome. Jail my ass!...
Yeah but before they went there they went to the gulag.
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Originally posted by trax1
Yeah but before they went there they went to the gulag.
Sure you know better.
C'mon, educate me.
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Originally posted by Russian
Just as in USofA.....fusion projects do not get enough funding....
I think you meant 'fission' and not true as of 2 years ago energy bill in the states..
edit: opps.. i guess you didn't mean fission ha 8)
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Originally posted by Boroda
Sure you know better.
C'mon, educate me.
So your saying Stalin never sent any of his scientist to the gulag? He was a friend of the scientist.
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Originally posted by Boroda
Tokamak-15 was supposed to be built in 1992. In fact - it was built. Scrapped for aluminum and copper in a matter of months.... :(
Now we participate in another joint Euro-Russian-Japanese project supposed to produce enough power to sustain it's own work, just as T-15 was supposed to work 16 years ago.
I expect a working thermonuclear reactor to appear in PRC in 5-10 years. I mean - an industrial power-station based on a thermonuclear reactor.
France with EU and multiple nations are building big-ass fusion plant that costs quite a lot. I really hope they can get enough date from it to build one with + energy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER
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Originally posted by TheDudeDVant
I think you meant 'fission' and not true as of 2 years ago energy bill in the states..
edit: opps.. i guess you didn't mean fission ha 8)
:) I made same mistake when doing paper for my engineering class....good thing I realized before sending it in (Re Fusion vs Fission). Got an A+ for it :)
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Originally posted by Russian
France with EU and multiple nations are building big-ass fusion plant that costs quite a lot. I really hope they can get enough date from it to build one with + energy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER
We had it ready to launch in 1991-92...
Bloody Communist Regime! (tm).
I bet our new-fangled "democracy" will ban all thermonuclear research: they get their royalty from oil and gas.
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Originally posted by Boroda
We had it ready to launch in 1991-92...
Bloody Communist Regime! (tm).
I bet our new-fangled "democracy" will ban all thermonuclear research: they get their royalty from oil and gas.
I doubt it. A nation that lives on oil without investment into technology (aka future) will fail....
(Wiki says that T15 suspended in 05. ITER was build using T15 technology and few other tokamak designs. )
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Originally posted by trax1
So your saying Stalin never sent any of his scientist to the gulag? He was a friend of the scientist.
I can only advise you to refrain from generalizations and stick to facts.
For example: Semenov wasn;t allowed to attend a first Bomb test in 1949. Now it's being told as a "bloody Soviet regime" (tm) oppressing a great scientist.
Lev Landau was kept in prison for almost a year, but he was released with apologies after Kapitsa wrote a letter to Stalin.
I see all this academic "kitchen" from inside now, and I wish we had someone like JVS cleaning this mess. Fortunately we are not in a pre-war conditions now, but - who knows?...
I hate to see govt sponsoring "torsion fields" research instead of real science. Damn, we got a man here, who gets grants from the UK for declining the Second Law of Thermodynamics... Seriously, i'm not joking.
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Originally posted by Russian
I doubt it. A nation that lives on oil without investment into technology (aka future) will fail....
Now I hope you see why I don't like our current regime.
They don;t invest even into further oil-field recon. Too expensive. Only USSR could afford it, no privately-owned corporation can. That's why I strongly disagree with Lazs about capitalism/socialism.
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Originally posted by lazs2
I think that in the case of science.. we can no longer look to western scientists who have politicized science.. who are potatos for grants and anyone paying them. the russian ones may be the only ones doing pure science anymore.
Lazs, as a western scientist I can assure you that there are great many western scientists that do not agree with MMGW, or at least claim that CO2 emissions are not the culprit. Every single one of those that I know is not getting any funding from the oil industry. It is actually much easier to get grants if your research is about fighting MMGW (not fighting the idea - fighting the warming).
The impression that the public get as if MMGW is the common conclusion of the science community is completely wrong. It is driven by politics and the mind-numbing media which prefer to report 'exciting news' over balanced and accurate news. Interviewing the people saying that the climate would have been the same even without humans is far less sexy than the 'preacher at the gates' with they doom prophecies.
If you stand up and claim that humans are not responsible for this, the immediate reply would be "then who is?". To answer this you have to go into difficult physics and processes (that is not well understood) that the media would not want to 'bore' the public with. If on the other hand you stand up and claim "humans are responsible", the immediate reply would be "OMG, what can we do about this?". People would tend to accept this clearer and simpler 'cause and effect' much better and move on to the next stage of 'reaction'.
It is not western scientists who are to blame. They do not politicize science as much as politics 'scientified' politics. It is western society that lost any ability of a serious logical discussion.
p.s.
I am not working on global warming.
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I recall quoting the Russian results on a GW thread some weeks ago.
It may have been an error in translation, but basically the results were that increasing sunspots (cold areas on the sun's surface) were behind GW.
So, less heat from the sun=GW. Baffling....Must be a wrong translation, but yet, solar activity has been going down or?
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Originally posted by Boroda
Disclaimer: I am only a support personell, technician. But I see "money flows" and I know who gets the money first.
So far repairing floor tiles gets 10 times more money then all IT.
This is a shining example why Russian scientists go to work for the highest bidder in other countries.
You should come to the US, Boroda, you'd make for some very interesting discussions here. :)
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bozon.. you should talk to moray.. you are preaching to the choir here with me. I agree with everything you said.
Thank you and the real scientists for speaking out.
As for russian.. my point is that they don't have a dog in the fight.. they don't care what the liberals or even the western world thinks of them.. if they are "forced" to do something about the harmless gas co2.. they will cry broke and laugh their butts off while we western countries give them "aid to stop global warming"
Their oil resources will still be in demand no matter what happens.. they simply do not have a dog in the fight... they won't do anything for free. they won't self flagulate like the pious and prissy western countries no matter what the results are.
lazs
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angus... I think that it is important to note that everyone admits that we don't really understand solar activity.. we don't really understand even water vapor... yet...
we are arrogant enough to claim that man is in control of the climate.. the sun.. the water vapor.. these are huge things that we know little about... yet.. co2.. a tiny little variable.. that is causing the earth to warm and cool?
lazs
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Au contraire Lazs, I think it is pure arrogance to claim that the composition of the Earth's atmosphere has no effect on temperature, say alone that the earth's surface has no effect on the atmosphere.
That said, the arrogant humans have caused drastic changes on both in a very short leap of time.
BTW,remind me of Krakatau and some others....got some digging to do.
Cheers to the southern states (from snow)...
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Originally posted by Angus
I recall quoting the Russian results on a GW thread some weeks ago.
It may have been an error in translation, but basically the results were that increasing sunspots (cold areas on the sun's surface) were behind GW.
So, less heat from the sun=GW. Baffling....Must be a wrong translation, but yet, solar activity has been going down or?
Yes, cooler spots on the sun which cause an increase in solar flairs or CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections). These throw huge amounts of radiation into the solar system which in turn bombard the atmosphere with energy thus raising temps. We are currently in a down turn cycle of solar activity which will result in less radiation hitting the atmosphere, thus less heat from the sun.
I frankly am glad for the increased CO2 which will hold in the heat we have now. I moved south away from the snow, last thing I want is it to start snowing in Florida. :)
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Originally posted by Angus
Au contraire Lazs, I think it is pure arrogance to claim that the composition of the Earth's atmosphere has no effect on temperature, say alone that the earth's surface has no effect on the atmosphere.
That said, the arrogant humans have caused drastic changes on both in a very short leap of time.
BTW,remind me of Krakatau and some others....got some digging to do.
Cheers to the southern states (from snow)...
Most don't claim that is has "no" effect., but to claim that a little over 100 years of industrial activity has placed the Earth on the edge of a cataclismic GW event is just scare tactics.
One must question the GW advocates when the solutions to the problem they propose smack so of anti-capitalism, anti-industrialism, etc., etc.
We see this every day in Florida where, yes, we have a problem with our rivers and the Everglades, but the solutions proposed by the enviros is to slap punitive measures against farmers and industry. When methods that actually work, like runoff filtering levies are preposed they resist them to the point of lawsuits. Again, one must ask, "What is their real motivation here?"
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angus.. I did not say the atmosphere has no effect.. I said that a tiny little part of it has little effect.. co2 is a tiny little part of the atmosphere which is mostly water vapor which we have no effect on which we don't have any real understanding of which is affected by solar activity which we have very little understanding of.
lazs
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Of course when he says 'we' he means 'he'.
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Originally posted by lazs2
angus.. If the atmosphere weighs the same as a duck...it's made of wood...and therefore.....
lazs
There...that's better.
;)
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So it also floats in the water, and you could build a bridge out of it :D
Anyway, Clifra Jones, the story of industrialization with much more effect on our environment than just silly CO2 is much longer than just 100 years.
100 years puts you to 1908 ....but the dawn of the humans going big is much farter away.
Biggest effect IMHO is probably change of surface rather than exhaust, as well as the surfaces effects on some exhaust or atmosphere construction might be much more than our exhausts.
Some of those things are too scary, - just the co2 is nothing that bad copmpared to it...it sometimes baffles me why people focus on that so narrowly.
THe effect seems to be enough though for our globe to actually warm, while getting less heat from the sun,- try to tell Lazs that one :D So, what would it do in an increased solar activity? Nice and crusty IMHO, for if the Icecaps are melting AND the sea is warming at the same time,while we have less solar heat,ut's not a small deal...
As for
"One must question the GW advocates when the solutions to the problem they propose smack so of anti-capitalism, anti-industrialism, etc., etc."
Well, look at it this way. With the way we are using up our resources, there is no chance at all that we can carry on for more than perhaps a 100 years. We're going to hit the wall unless we discover some magic wand.
I'll give you a small example below:
...To be continued....
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It's a miniscule example...but reflects human behaviure on a scale small enough to understand it, so I hope you get the point....
SADDEST FATE FOR AN ISLAND NATION
The demise of Nauru
Most people have never heard of Nauru. The world’s smallest independent republic, Nauru is an eight-square-mile island that lies halfway between Hawai and New Zealand and has a population of around 12.000. One hundred years ago, Nauru was a sparkling emerald of dense tropical forests surrounded by blue water,much like the thousands of other islands scattered across Polynesia. Today 90 percent of Nauru resembles a moonscape, with only a thin strip of greenery around its perimeter. What happened? It was the Nauruans’ good and then very bad luck to be living on one of the only Islands in the south Pacific to be made almost entirely of high-grade phosphate, an important fertilizer ingredient – the result of migratory seabirds having used the atoll as a rest stop for eons.
When a German-British consortium found out about the phosphate in the early twentieth century, it moved in with steam shovels and started scooping away the island’s interior, compensating native landowners a half penny for each ton of phosphate they hauled away. By the time Nauru won its independence in 1968,and estimated two-thirds of its surface had been mined. With independence came a much better return on the phosphate – the islan’s only real exportable asset – so the mining continued unabated. Now that the money was good, why turn back? As the Economist repoted, “For a brief, heady oment in the 1970s, Nauruans were, astonishingly, among the richest people on earth.” They enjoyed tax-free lives filled with wonderful perks, and work was strictly optional.
Then two bad things happened: First, the Nauruans lost their fortune to con artists, who swindled them with bogus money-market schemes and, most notably, a crazy investment in a theatrical musical about the life of Leonardo da Vinci (Leonardo: A Portrait of Love) that lost millions of dollars. Second, Nauru essentially ran out of Nauru. The island had literally been hauled away, shipload by shipload. What little phosphate remains is too expensive to extract, so most foreigh mining companies have picked up their equipment and left. Today Nauru is on the verge of bankruptcy and limps along by selling passports, providing unreported banking services (to such clients as the Russian Mafia, which has laundered an estimated $70 billion there), and presenting itself as a miserable holding and detention camp for Australian-bound refugees.
In the fall of 2004, Nauru fount itself unable to continue financing its massive debt and was forced to relinquish the property portfolio it had acquired in the boom days and put it up as collateral, including several hotels in Sydney and Melbourne and a range of shopping centers. Nauru’s health minister announced that the government was “basically broke” while the island’s financial minister opined that the assylum seekersbeing held in Nauru’s Australian subsidized detention camp were more fortunate than the islan’s own residents. “The facilities they provide in those centers are better than we can provide for our own people”.
To make matters worse, Nauruans rank amongst the most obese people on the planet, thanks to their need to import preserved food (even fresh water has to be shipped in). Over 50 percent of the population has diabetes, and life expectancy is 20 years less than that of people living in nearby developed countries.
As if all of that weren’t enough, Nauru itself may one day cease to exist. Evidence suggests that ocean levels are rising and eventually the Nauruans may have to evacuate. Then, Nauru will be nothing but a bad memory.
From the book “The WORLD’S WORST, A GUIDE TO THE MOST DISGUSTING HIDEOUS Inept, and Dangerous People, Places,and THINGS ON EARTH” by Mark Frauenfelder. 0-8118-4606-7
Chronicle books LLC, http://www.chroniclebooks.com
Nice book BTW :D
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Of course... no scientist fully or even mostly understands water vapor and its effect on the planet or the way the sun works or solar activity to any great extent but.. curval and mt do.
lazs
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Really?
I thought there wasn't so much trickery about it....
Some, admittedly, since "colour" does have something to do with whether sun's IR radiation is trapped or bounced back, which all boils as well down to water itself.
Steam vs cloud.....sea vs ice....not the same thing.....
But we know enough about it to build a steam engine :D
But then, solar activity also seems to be tricky. If we have low IR from the sun while the globe heats up.....now is it just the sun???