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Special Events Forums => Friday Squad Operations => Topic started by: Saxman on July 22, 2008, 07:49:17 AM

Title: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Saxman on July 22, 2008, 07:49:17 AM
September, 1942....

The War in the Pacific has gone very, very badly for the Allies. Defeats at Coral Sea and Midway have left Allied forces in Australia and New Guinea cut off from reinforcements from America. With US carrier forces devastated, the Japanese leadership, rather than a negotiated truce as Yamamoto planned, have instead decided to force the Americans' hands by striking at American home soil.

The Americans have already abandoned Hawaii as an indefensible position with the loss of Midway to the Japanese, and have withdrawn the remnants of the Pacific Fleet back to the West Coast, pursued by a massive Japanese carrier and invasion force. Knowing that an attack is imminent, the Americans have poured every available aircraft and resource into the defense of the continent, and have hastily pressed the newly in-production F4U-1 into service. For the first time in 200 years, the continental United States faces foreign invasion....

Plane Set

Aircraft/vehicles for this setup can be drawn from the following:

United States
F4F-4
F4U-1 (limited numbers)
P-39D
P-38G (limited numbers)
P-47D-11
P-40B
SBD-5
TBM-3
B-25C
PT Boat (second life in aircraft)
Shore Battery (second like in aircraft)

Japan
A6M2
B5N
D3A
LVT (second life in aircraft)
6 aircraft carriers
Gunship-only task groups (possibly with as many as 2 cruisers, manable, with second life in aircraft)

One frame can be run entirely at night, allowing PTs to engage the Japanese fleets in a historical context and providing a unique challenge for both fighters and bombers on each side. Additionally in the case of the LVTs, scoring can be run based on how many of the boats successfully reach their target beaches (something similar to the percentage scores in air to air combat). The Japanese task groups can be assigned shore targets to bombard, scored as if a bomber squadron, which the Allies can defend by a combination of manned shore batteries and bomber/PT strikes.
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Shifty on July 22, 2008, 08:18:33 AM
That's a pretty heafty Allied lineup against A6M2s. I love the idea, but maybe allow A6M5s as an A6M3 sub, and add a Ki-61 unit or two. Of course the Axis would need a land base for the Ki-61s. Maybe instead of invading the US, make it Australia? Cool idea though.
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Saxman on July 22, 2008, 09:09:59 AM
Shifty,

The Allied lineup is just everything available to choose from, not necessarily that would be used. Maybe the CiC would choose two bombers and three fighters, but could only use ONE of the "limited" type (so he could have F4U-1s or P-38Gs, but not both together, and would need to fill out his flight line with F4Fs, P-40s or P-39s). Alternately, the available Allied aircraft could be set by the CM frame-by-frame.

I went with an invasion of the US first because of the novelty, but also because if you look at history it makes sense. The Japanese hit Midway to try and force the Americans to negotiate terms. Well, what if these negotiations soured and Japan decided to force the point?
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: humble on July 22, 2008, 09:25:29 AM
Australia would make much more sense. From a military perspective Hawaii was not only defendable but essential. Japans interests lied in the formation of the East Asia cooperative sphere or whatever they called it. Had the japanese been successful at Midway they would have continued with their plans to launch an invation of Australia from Port Morsby. If the japanese had wanted to invade Hawaii there best option was on Dec 7, 1941, had they attempted an attack vs an aware American military in 1942 they would have been cuaght in an unwinnable campaign. What would have changed is the focus of the american military, Bradley/Patton would have been in Hawaii and Torch would have never happened. There would be no lend lease and the USAAF would have about 2000 P-39D's in Hawaii...
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Shifty on July 22, 2008, 09:27:15 AM
Shifty,

The Allied lineup is just everything available to choose from, not necessarily that would be used. Maybe the CiC would choose two bombers and three fighters, but could only use ONE of the "limited" type (so he could have F4U-1s or P-38Gs, but not both together, and would need to fill out his flight line with F4Fs, P-40s or P-39s). Alternately, the available Allied aircraft could be set by the CM frame-by-frame.

I went with an invasion of the US first because of the novelty, but also because if you look at history it makes sense. The Japanese hit Midway to try and force the Americans to negotiate terms. Well, what if these negotiations soured and Japan decided to force the point?

Not dumping on it of course. I like the idea. I could be mistaken, but I'm sure I've read somewhere that as early as the Battle of Midway A6m3s were replacing A6M2s on Japanese Cv's. Keep pushing it Sax! :aok
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Captfish on July 22, 2008, 09:41:01 AM
Sounds cool to me  :aok

sounds like two what-ifs one attacking US soil and one attacking Aussie soil.  :rock
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Redlegs on July 22, 2008, 09:41:56 AM
Maybe the Japanese conquer all the Aleutian Islands and look at attacking mainland Alaska?
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Saxman on July 22, 2008, 10:04:17 AM
Shifty,

Problem is the A6M5 doesn't really fit as a good substitute for the A6M3 as she's a much later ship.
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Krusty on July 22, 2008, 10:41:45 AM
Dump the P-47. Swap the P-40B with the P-40E.

Enable a small number of A6M5s or an "elite" group of Ki61s or something. All A6M2s gets boring for the axis.


IMO it's too lop-sided. The A6M2 has nothing on any of those planes except turn. It can't chase, it can't climb, it can't zoom, it can't dive, and it can't withstand enemy fire with any of the allied counterparts. [EDIT: Not counting the F4F-4, sorry I should have specified this]

That's my main concern with this as far as setups go.

You would need to ensure a 3:1 superiority ratio or something.
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Saxman on July 22, 2008, 11:08:59 AM
As pointed out, Ki-61s would require land bases which for this setup may not work (unless it's made dynamic, so the Japanese can actually seize land bases if they're successful). I'd see the A6M5 as better, or at least more usable since they're CV-based.

I can also see removing the P-47, although if balance is already an issue why swap out the P-40B for the superior E?

What would be REALLY interesting is to allow the Japanese LVTs to actually capture bases in the course of the frame. The tactical execution would definitely be a change of pace, as neither attacker nor defender have unlimited numbers to throw out. Both sides would have to carefully manage their resources both in attack and defense.
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Shifty on July 22, 2008, 11:11:12 AM
Actually from what I can find Sax the A6M3/A6m5 were very close in performance. Way more than the A6M2/A6M3
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Shifty on July 22, 2008, 11:30:50 AM
I found the stats here. http://www.acepilots.com/planes/specs.html

I'm no Widewing by any means, he would probably have much better sources than this.

I kind of agree with Humble too. Had the Japanese captured Port Moresby, winning the Battle of Coral Sea, and won the Battle of Midway...
They would have probably been more likely to invade Australia in the fall/winter of 42/43 rather than attempt to invade the USA.
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Krusty on July 22, 2008, 12:29:44 PM
Technically they didn't WANT America :)

They wanted America to stay out of their business in the Pacific.


P.S. True what you say about the P-40E, but why have F4u1 and P-38G and P-40B/E against an enemy comprised entirely of A6m2s in the first place?
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Saxman on July 22, 2008, 01:33:11 PM
Revisions:

First to the situation:

February, 1943. With the collapse of American naval forces at Coral Sea and Midway, the United States no longer had open channels of reinforcing their beleagured forces and allies in the Pacific. The Japanese consolidated their hold on New Guinea and landed in Australia, who fought bitterly but without fresh supplies or reinforcements were unable to hold back the Japanese advance, and by January, 1943 surrendered.

The Americans meanwhile rushed to rebuild their shattered navy. Left only with Saratoga and Wasp, and the newly completed Essex after the loss of their remaining carriers in the two naval battles at Coral Sea and Midway, they decided that in the face of a Japanese presence on Midway Island and six intact fleet carriers the base of the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor was untenable, and Admiral Nimitz ordered the fleet withdrawn to the mainland, while still maintaining the airfields. With their naval and airpower decimated, the US turned to their submarine force to harrass the Japanese.

Fearing a resurgent US Navy and frustrated by the Americans' continued refusal to negotiate, the Japanese leadership takes Admiral Yamamoto's warning at its word: The only way for them to dictate a truce with the Americans would be to do so in Washington itself.

The Japanese plan of battle focused first on destroying the US Pacific Fleet for good by bypassing the airfields on Pearl Harbor, and following the fleet back to its bases along the western coast of the United States, intended to draw the remnants of the Pacific Fleet into battle and seizing the key airfields and installations there to establish a foothold on American soil.

Plane Set

United States

The American plane set would be drawn from a list below. Two bomber and three fighter types will be used in each frame, to be determined by the CM.

F4F-4
F4U-1 (limited numbers)
P-39D
P-38G (limited numbers)
P-40E
SBD-5
TBM-3
B-25C
PT Boat (second life in aircraft)
3 Aircraft Carriers
Cruiser Battle Groups (second life in vehicles)

Japanese

A6M2 (64 minimum requirement)
A6M5
B5N
D3A
Ki-61 (limited numbers IF Japanese successfully capture airfields)
Ju-88 (sub for G4M IF Japanese successfully capture airfields)
LVT (second life in aircraft)
6 Aircraft Carriers
Cruiser Battle Groups (second life in aircraft)

Victory Conditions

The Americans must fend off the Japanese attack by defending their carriers and ground bases. Additionally, they must prevent the Japanese from landing troops and attack the Japanese carriers.

The Japanese primary goal is the annihilation of the remnants of the US Pacific Fleet in surface and aerial action. Additionally, they are to hit American shore installations (bases, factories, etc). LVTs must successfully make landfall. Alternately, the CM may run an actual capture operation, requiring the Axis to actually capture a base. Regardless of how this is handled, if the Japanese successfully take possession of an airfield, they will have access to Ki-61 and "G4M" land-based aircraft in subsequent frames.
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Krusty on July 22, 2008, 04:50:24 PM
That sounds rather interesting with the threat of base capture and all....
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: toadkill on July 22, 2008, 05:25:03 PM
OMG they sunk the Enterprise? That's UNPOSSIBLE. =p I call HAX!!!!!!!!!!!


If it were real though i dont think that it could have been a success since the AAF was probably at full capacity since they wouldn't be fighting anywhere else in the pacific. And the Marines and Army Could be Majorly deployed to counter any invasion. Thats not accounting for those Canadians either, Eh?

 :salute looks like a good 'What if"
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Fencer51 on July 22, 2008, 05:54:11 PM
Ok overlooking the "historical" fact that the Japanese did not have the manpower or sealift to do this..

What terrain would you propose to use?

The fact that they "sunk" the Enterprise brings this into Fantasy though.  :aok
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: humble on July 22, 2008, 07:14:47 PM
Ok overlooking the "historical" fact that the Japanese did not have the manpower or sealift to do this..

What terrain would you propose to use?

The fact that they "sunk" the Enterprise brings this into Fantasy though.  :aok

No question that the logistics would have totally overwhelmed them, another issue would be the B-17's. While they were ineffective at midway a much larger force dedicated to both interdication at sea and defense of the landing area would be formidable. Recognizing that its historically impractical it might still be fun.

One interesting aspect would be the interaction of the IJN and IJA/IJAA. Lets assume that a strike was possible, the IJN would be transporting IJA units (not enough IJN marines for this task)...what about the IJAA. It's logical to assume that some Ki-61's might be stored topside on a few carriers (lets say 2 of 6). The Japs would need to attack close to an airfield ( a la henderson )....so you could have a scenario where 2 of the 6 carriers are reserve with 2nd lives for the B5N/D3A drivers and LTV forces IF they successfully capture the field. At the same time if those 2 carriers are sunk no 2nd lives exist...
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Saxman on July 22, 2008, 07:33:44 PM
I really would have liked the option of B-17s, problem is the B-17G--and the B-24J for that matter--may be too inappropriate for the 1943 timeframe. However if there's no objections, swap the B-17 in place of the Mitchell.

Lol, I THOUGHT that the loss of Enterprise would get some attention. ;)
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Odee on July 23, 2008, 07:41:50 AM
Not dumping on it of course. I like the idea. I could be mistaken, but I'm sure I've read somewhere that as early as the Battle of Midway A6m3s were replacing A6M2s on Japanese Cv's. Keep pushing it Sax! :aok
What my air Boss says in Spades...   As long as the 49th gets to fly 38's against the Japs, ima be happy camperoo :cool:

 :salute
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Fencer51 on July 23, 2008, 11:17:49 AM
Guys there are alot of possibilities with this.  But the limiting factor is the terrain.  Unfortunately the guys who do the terrain have lives and are unable to do the entire globe.  Also some of their work gets "broken" when HTC does updates.

So I ask again, what terrain?  One of the MA terrains?
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Saxman on July 23, 2008, 11:41:46 AM
I was thinking if I could get a good grayscale topographical map of part of the west coast 512 miles long--including the bay area--at least the base terrain itself could be done fairly quickly using one of the map converter programs.
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Krusty on July 23, 2008, 12:12:08 PM
Nope. HTC still has to take the files and compile them for the servers. That'll take a number of undetermined months at this rate.

He's asking for an existing terrain, one that works (i.e. not screwed up by the tile updates).



Oh, and p.S. B17s vs A6m2s.... riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight....
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Redlegs on July 23, 2008, 12:20:00 PM
Guys there are alot of possibilities with this.  But the limiting factor is the terrain.  Unfortunately the guys who do the terrain have lives and are unable to do the entire globe. 

Ahem!

Maybe the Japanese conquer all the Aleutian Islands and look at attacking mainland Alaska?
Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: ghostdancer on July 23, 2008, 12:20:37 PM
Saxman there is quite a backlog of terrains being built for Scenarios and FSO right now. Plus, Dux can speak to this specifically, but building a terrain is rather lengthy .. getting the terrain in place is one thing. Skinning it with the tile you want, build the strat system, placing the bases and other objects, etc., etc. takes time. Then it has to be tested, reviewed, etc. to catch bugs. As said it is a lengthy process.

So since this is just a design exercise have at it. But Fencre51 does bring up a good point.

Any FSO starts first with what terrains are available or will be available and tested for stability by X time period. Quite a few of my FSO designs have been shelved waiting on terrains (right now waiting on Tunisia and Luzon came out just a hair to late before so ran Guadalcanal).

After that is to come up with an idea. You are doing a good job with that.

After that is play balance. Both sides have to have a good shot of winning. Your planeset here needs work. A6M5 / A6M2 is at definite disadvantage versus the F4U-1 and P38G even in limited numbers. In Aleutians the frame that had limited P38Gs .. well they romped on the A6M2. Against the P39D and F4F-4 they definitely can hold their own (although have to be flown well .. less room for pilot margin).

So I would modify it for the naval portion that only carrier planes available (sans the F4U-1). Then after or I should say if the Japanese get a land base you could activate the F4U-1, P38G, Ki61 and JU88s.



Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: ghostdancer on July 23, 2008, 12:25:00 PM
The Aleutian idea right now would work better with the terrain we have. Plus, U.S. forces were very thin up there. A Japanese attack on California and seizing a land base  would be suicidal. Attacking / bombing facilities sure .. in 1942 they raided into the Indian Ocean and attacked British Facilities on Ceylon and interdicted merchant shipping.

So it would be believable if Hawaii was lost for them to launch raids on California (still suicidal in the long run since it would result in a Pacific First strategy instead of Europe first).

Title: Re: Another What-If Scenario
Post by: Sloehand on July 23, 2008, 01:18:46 PM
Revisions:

First to the situation:

February, 1943. With the collapse of American naval forces at Coral Sea and Midway, the United States no longer had open channels of reinforcing their beleagured forces and allies in the Pacific. The Japanese consolidated their hold on New Guinea and landed in Australia, who fought bitterly but without fresh supplies or reinforcements were unable to hold back the Japanese advance, and by January, 1943 surrendered.

The Americans meanwhile rushed to rebuild their shattered navy. Left only with Saratoga and Wasp, and the newly completed Essex after the loss of their remaining carriers in the two naval battles at Coral Sea and Midway, they decided that in the face of a Japanese presence on Midway Island and six intact fleet carriers the base of the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor was untenable, and Admiral Nimitz ordered the fleet withdrawn to the mainland, while still maintaining the airfields. With their naval and airpower decimated, the US turned to their submarine force to harrass the Japanese.

Fearing a resurgent US Navy and frustrated by the Americans' continued refusal to negotiate, the Japanese leadership takes Admiral Yamamoto's warning at its word: The only way for them to dictate a truce with the Americans would be to do so in Washington itself.

The Japanese plan of battle focused first on destroying the US Pacific Fleet for good by bypassing the airfields on Pearl Harbor, and following the fleet back to its bases along the western coast of the United States, intended to draw the remnants of the Pacific Fleet into battle and seizing the key airfields and installations there to establish a foothold on American soil.

Plane Set

United States

The American plane set would be drawn from a list below. Two bomber and three fighter types will be used in each frame, to be determined by the CM.

F4F-4
F4U-1 (limited numbers)
P-39D
P-38G (limited numbers)
P-40E
SBD-5
TBM-3
B-25C
PT Boat (second life in aircraft)
3 Aircraft Carriers
Cruiser Battle Groups (second life in vehicles)

Japanese

A6M2 (64 minimum requirement)
A6M5
B5N
D3A
Ki-61 (limited numbers IF Japanese successfully capture airfields)
Ju-88 (sub for G4M IF Japanese successfully capture airfields)
LVT (second life in aircraft)
6 Aircraft Carriers
Cruiser Battle Groups (second life in aircraft)

Victory Conditions

The Americans must fend off the Japanese attack by defending their carriers and ground bases. Additionally, they must prevent the Japanese from landing troops and attack the Japanese carriers.

The Japanese primary goal is the annihilation of the remnants of the US Pacific Fleet in surface and aerial action. Additionally, they are to hit American shore installations (bases, factories, etc). LVTs must successfully make landfall. Alternately, the CM may run an actual capture operation, requiring the Axis to actually capture a base. Regardless of how this is handled, if the Japanese successfully take possession of an airfield, they will have access to Ki-61 and "G4M" land-based aircraft in subsequent frames.

Love the overall idea, but IMO there is one really major problem with the revised scenario concerning the pull back of the American carriers to the Mainland.  I seriously doubt that the U.S. Navy would ever abandon such a large amount of American soil and citizenry in such a manner, especially given the land support they would have in the Hawaiian Islands.  More likely the fleet would be used to harass, or split the attention of the Japanese fleet and disrupt any land invasion, if possible. 

Further, there would be little point in pulling carriers back to the Mainland U.S., certainly not for defense -- again land-based forces would be overwhelmingly available for defense -- and not if a land invasion was expected.  Those carriers would be headed for Panama, if saving them from destruction was the plan.

The whole point of carriers is to project air and naval power to distant and remote locations away from your own land-based forces, or to defend distant interests or bases.  Pulling them all the way back to the Mainland, might save them, but more likely would just negate their effectiveness for no return.  As a mobile strike force still at sea, they must still be considered a threat by the Japanese, and if they were to be lost, it would be better it were done inflicting damage on the Japanese fleet that might just delay a Mainland invasion.