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General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: DREDIOCK on September 22, 2008, 07:01:06 AM

Title: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: DREDIOCK on September 22, 2008, 07:01:06 AM
(dont shoot me. I'm just the messenger )

Gonna be interesting to watch this thing once the debates start

McCain has now fallen behind

Pa cant seem to make up its mind

Sep. 22
Obama 273    McCain 265   

(http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Pngs/Sep22.png)
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: bongaroo on September 22, 2008, 10:20:01 AM
Nice to see NC turn a lighter shade of red. 
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: lazs2 on September 22, 2008, 02:38:14 PM
notice that the more solid the blue color the more it is a state that everyone hates?

lazs
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Animl on September 22, 2008, 03:04:41 PM
notice that the more solid the blue color the more it is a state that everyone hates?

lazs

Most of the red states, at least in the north, have smaller populations too.

juuust a note. :)

Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Bodhi on September 22, 2008, 03:27:33 PM
Most of the red states, at least in the north, have smaller populations too.

juuust a note. :)



Of course they do.  Everyone knows that the blue states with the big cities are filled with whiney liberals and lazy welfare addicts. 
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: bongaroo on September 22, 2008, 03:29:35 PM
notice that the more solid the blue color the more it is a state that conservatives hate?

lazs

Here, fixed!   :aok

Well the only state I could say to hate would be Georgia and they are solid red.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: MORAY37 on September 22, 2008, 03:56:49 PM
Of course they do.  Everyone knows that the blue states with the big cities are filled with whiney liberals and lazy welfare addicts. 



Wow.  Just...Wow.

The fact you sign your posts with something I agree with kills me every time.  It's a shame you can't apply that tenant to your thought process as a whole.  You are about as un-scientific and opinionated, as one man can be.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: MORAY37 on September 22, 2008, 04:02:49 PM
notice that the more solid the blue color the more it is a state that I hate for no other reason than complete and total ignorance.

lazs

Fixed, sir.  :aok
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: SkyRock on September 22, 2008, 04:14:32 PM
Of course they do.  Everyone knows that the blue states with the big cities are filled with whiney liberals and lazy welfare addicts. 

lotta hate in the red states, lotta hate. :aok
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Bodhi on September 22, 2008, 04:26:56 PM

Wow.  Just...Wow.

The fact you sign your posts with something I agree with kills me every time.  It's a shame you can't apply that tenant to your thought process as a whole.  You are about as un-scientific and opinionated, as one man can be.

LOL, when I was baiting that hook, I though, nah, no one will bite on that.  Thanks for proving me wrong Moray!   :lol

I will say one thing for your close.  I am not a scientist, and I am very opinionated, but I am methodical and open to fact and logical reason.

Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Bodhi on September 22, 2008, 04:28:08 PM
lotta hate in the red states, lotta hate. :aok


Man Skyrock, ya can't even get that right either.

I be in a white state with a blue border.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: MORAY37 on September 22, 2008, 04:43:07 PM
LOL, when I was baiting that hook, I though, nah, no one will bite on that.  Thanks for proving me wrong Moray!   :lol

I will say one thing for your close.  I am not a scientist, and I am very opinionated, but I am methodical and open to fact and logical reason.



It just so happens I am a scientist... lol, and I bit on that bait.  I live for that simple statement...without it, we still think the earth is flat and the center of the universe.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Bodhi on September 22, 2008, 04:48:51 PM
It just so happens I am a scientist... lol, and I bit on that bait.  I live for that simple statement...without it, we still think the earth is flat and the center of the universe.

I am just a dumb ole aircraft mechanic and one time (very short while) commercial diver.  All kidding aside, in aviation, we live in a world that rewards those that find the correct and safe way of doing things, not always the convenient or commonly agreed upon way.

We probably have a lot more in common than either of us would like to agree.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Carrel on September 22, 2008, 04:50:18 PM
It just so happens I am a scientist... lol, and I bit on that bait.  I live for that simple statement...without it, we still think the earth is flat and the center of the universe.

Uh...the Earth IS flat, dude. Otherwise we'd all fall off.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: JAGED on September 22, 2008, 05:00:59 PM
Uh...the Earth IS flat, dude. Otherwise we'd all fall off.

Duh!  :D

(http://iimmerse.com.au/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/the-world-is-flat.jpg)
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: 321BAR on September 22, 2008, 05:04:04 PM
notice that the more solid the blue color the more it is a state that everyone hates?

lazs
oy im from Massachusetts, dont make fun of the dumb ex Irish/Italian/etc. community i live in!!!!!  :lol
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: 1pLUs44 on September 22, 2008, 05:08:20 PM

Wow.  Just...Wow.

The fact you sign your posts with something I agree with kills me every time.  It's a shame you can't apply that tenant to your thought process as a whole.  You are about as un-scientific and opinionated, as one man can be.

Are you serious? :lol

They get most of their votes from dead beats on welfare. Thats how dead people vote in elections. :)
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: sluggish on September 22, 2008, 05:15:56 PM
lotta hate in the red states, lotta hate. :aok

If you want to see hatred, wait til the blue states start crying about the bigoted ignorant red staters in fly-over country after the election for giving us "four more years of BOOOSH".
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Dago on September 22, 2008, 05:27:19 PM
Of course they do.  Everyone knows that the blue states with the big cities are filled with whiney liberals and lazy welfare addicts. 


 :rofl :rofl :rofl
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Getback on September 22, 2008, 06:12:00 PM
McCain has got to get back on the conservative side of things. He needs to turn Palin loose.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Hangtime on September 22, 2008, 08:54:50 PM
McCain has got to get back on the conservative side of things. He needs to turn Palin loose.

.. a wardrobe malfunction?

"Sarah, turn them puppies LOOSE!"
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: mg1942 on September 23, 2008, 01:23:50 PM
September 23 (NEW)
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Obama 282   
McCain 236   
Ties 20
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: mg1942 on September 23, 2008, 01:25:36 PM
Intrade Prediction Markets

(http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Images/Intrade-Sep23.jpg)
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Niceguy on September 23, 2008, 01:38:40 PM
I think you will start seeing the numbers change back to McCain's side once the debates start. I predict we will hear a lot of "umm...uuh" from Obama at the debates. Not a big fan of McCain but he is a far better debater (real word?) than Obama. Obama has him beat at speeches but in an open debate McCain is going to kill him.

Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: mg1942 on September 23, 2008, 01:46:16 PM
... against someone who's educated in Columbia/Harvard? :P
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Anaxogoras on September 23, 2008, 01:48:38 PM
I think you will start seeing the numbers change back to McCain's side once the debates start. I predict we will hear a lot of "umm...uuh" from Obama at the debates. Not a big fan of McCain but he is a far better debater (real word?) than Obama. Obama has him beat at speeches but in an open debate McCain is going to kill him.



You have got to be kidding me.  Regardless of what your position is on issues or which candidate you prefer, not acknowledging that Obama is much better than McCain at rhetoric is self-deception.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: sluggish on September 23, 2008, 02:22:01 PM
I think you will start seeing the numbers change back to McCain's side once the debates start. I predict we will hear a lot of "umm...uuh" from Obama at the debates. Not a big fan of McCain but he is a far better debater (real word?) than Obama. Obama has him beat at speeches but in an open debate McCain is going to kill him.



I think the term is "master debater."

 :D
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Dos Equis on September 23, 2008, 02:30:25 PM
Virginia should be light blue. Last two polls, from Gallup and AP, show Obama at +5 with +3 margin.

Ohio is as good as lost to the Dems. Cleveland and Cinnci vote totals won't get counted properly, and everybody knows it.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: DREDIOCK on September 24, 2008, 12:08:00 AM
Virginia should be light blue. Last two polls, from Gallup and AP, show Obama at +5 with +3 margin.

Ohio is as good as lost to the Dems. Cleveland and Cinnci vote totals won't get counted properly, and everybody knows it.


And so VA has

McCain now in a nose dive

Sept 23
Obama 282    McCain 236    Ties 20
(http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Pngs/Sep23.png)
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Niceguy on September 24, 2008, 07:31:24 AM
You have got to be kidding me.  Regardless of what your position is on issues or which candidate you prefer, not acknowledging that Obama is much better than McCain at rhetoric is self-deception.

I've seen both in multiple interviews and every time Obama is given a semi-tough question he starts stammering and hem hawing away while McCain normally gives quick straight forward answers.

Like I said before I don't like either candidate but one gives good speeches while the other answers questions well.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Carrel on September 24, 2008, 10:39:28 AM
What you'll see now is Obama widen his lead...The novelty over Palin's selection has subsided and now the 20% of those women who initially jumped on the McCain bandwagon are realizing Palin's a right wing religious fanatic, out of touch with 90% of women voters.

Add to that the architect of the banking failure, Phil Graham, is McCain's pic for our next treasury secretary and most voters can see McCain will be another four more years of failed Republican leadership.

The mistake the Republicans made was hoping the American voters are stupid, and they aren't- we realize McCain is too old and Palin too inexperienced to lead, and if the theme of this election is "change" then Obama gives us change while McCain is more status quo.

Oh, and those of you who think McCain will rip Obama in a debate crack me up- McCain is a dottering old fool who has been protected from the Press because his handlers realize this- look at his comments concerning the latest Republican failure, our financial collapse, where he wants to fire everybody. Obama's on his game, versed on the issues and his vision of the solutions, and when they debate McCain will get stomped...

...Unless he gets debate points by adopting the O'Club style of debate- you know, where the neocons accuse Obama of being a Moslem terrorist, a racist, and growing a tail without offering up any sort of agenda, other than "It'll get better if we change the name tag on the Oval Office desk."

Luckily the American public is a hell of a lot more savvy than most of you are.  ;)
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Dos Equis on September 24, 2008, 11:43:57 AM
Luckily the American public is a hell of a lot more savvy than most of you are.  ;)

You can say that again.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Sox62 on September 24, 2008, 11:59:40 AM
Virginia should be light blue. Last two polls, from Gallup and AP, show Obama at +5 with +3 margin.

Ohio is as good as lost to the Dems. Cleveland and Cinnci vote totals won't get counted properly, and everybody knows it.



You're quite possibly right,only it won't be the democratic votes being missed.

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080923/COL05/809230318 (http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080923/COL05/809230318)
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Carrel on September 24, 2008, 03:34:32 PM
LOL...Gee, what a surprise. McCain doesn't want to debate- he's "too busy" straightening out the financial mess he helped get us into.

I wonder what Palin's excuse will be? Seriously...the Republicans need a new mascot. I suggest the chicken.  :rofl
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: Bodhi on September 24, 2008, 03:51:27 PM
LOL...Gee, what a surprise. McCain doesn't want to debate- he's "too busy" straightening out the financial mess he helped get us into.

I wonder what Palin's excuse will be? Seriously...the Republicans need a new mascot. I suggest the chicken.  :rofl

You frigging liberals are all alike.  You have your heads jammed so far up your butts that you fail to see the importance of doing your jobs.  That's right, JOBS.  They both are still senators.  There is a very large amount of money being discussed.  Both camps need to stfu and get their arses to Washington and get this financial bail out plan right.  Otherwise, we are thoroughly and truly screwed,

As for Palin vs. Biden... come on.  Biden is an idiot.  Palin will kick his butt ruthelessly.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: DREDIOCK on September 24, 2008, 06:13:35 PM
I said months ago. The Economy was going to play a big part for McCain to win.
Economy,Gas, and Iraq

Iraq is looking better but Gas is still high and the economy..
Well I neednt say more.
These next few weeks are going to be pivotal for the McCain Campaign.
And Obama too for that matter.
Both need to get involed and at least give the appearance of not only getting something done.
But in giving the impression they were a major player.

McCains doing the smart thing for his campaign.
If Obama doesnt get involved. It will give something for McCain to pin on him.
"I went to actually do something, While Obama just whined about it"

I think we'll see Obama in Washington soon just to neuter that exact claim.


McCain still needs to biotch slap Bush to distance himself from him.
Especially now.
Or Obama will be able to make a strong case for 4 more years fo the same.


As for the Debates
I think Obama is going to do better. or come off as doing better then McCain.
Palin will whoop on Biden

Part of it is going to be body language
McCain just doesnt come off as being very presidential.
He doesnt carry himself like a president. Comes off as being frumpy and sloppy
Palin in contrast does.

The reverse is true with Obama/Biden
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: lazs2 on September 25, 2008, 03:06:26 PM
dred..  I have to say.. that was a pretty good analysis of what is happening.

I also think that osamabinbiden has to be very careful to not look like a slick lawyer up there.. he has to look friendly but not in his usual used car salesman sort of way.

lazs
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: DREDIOCK on October 01, 2008, 08:05:44 AM
OUCH!

This is getting painful
McCains going to need that October surprise or this is going to be a landslide.

North Carolina I beleive at one point was  strong GOP. now sliding in Obamas direction. As is Fla.
He is loosing ground in all the states the GOP was "weak"in a couple of weeks ago.
As it stands now. He has to do more then just win the two battle ground states of Oh And Fla.

For a bit of perspective as to how things are changing. Im including the first map I posted in thei thread on Sept 22nd so we can see them side by side

Oct. 01
Obama 286    McCain 190    Ties 62

(http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Pngs/Oct01.png)

Sept 22
Obama 273    McCain 265
(http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Pngs/Sep22.png)
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: mg1942 on October 02, 2008, 05:40:07 AM
OCTOBER 2


Obama 338   
McCain 185   
Ties 15


(http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Pngs/Oct02.png)
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: mg1942 on October 02, 2008, 06:16:47 AM
No way FLorida is leaning to the mules! Weird. NPR and New York Times are more conservative in their predictions of Florida, NH and Ohio and Nevada and VA too.
Title: Re: And the Lead changes yet again. MCCain falls behind
Post by: mg1942 on October 02, 2008, 01:18:18 PM
The recent (i.e. post economic meltdown) state polls have Obama leading in Ohio by like 10, Florida by 7 or so, and Pennsylvania by an unheard of 15 points. Each of these only have errors of +-4 or so... All of them put Obama over the 50% mark, too...

A lot of it is due to a raising in confidence of Obama to be commander in chief after the first debate (it was probably the first time a lot of "normal" people ever heard Obama speak at length about issues in a non-speech environment). A lot of the drop, too, is because the Palin bounce Mccain got has eroded almost completely: Internals of the polls say that Palin's approval rating has gone from like 55% down to the mid 30s.

So Mccain is basically back to where he was before the republican national convention, and a few points lower than that because of the economy being the primary issue instead of national security.

With only 32 or so days to go, Mccain is doomed unless something truly huge happens... I don't think Bush capturing Osama Bin Laden would even be enough to push Mccain over the edge. He can keep trying various day-to-day gambles on phony outrage or whatever, or try blanketing key states with fear-mongering ads... But I don't think it'd work. You can't fear monger when people are ALREADY AFRAID. Sure, that suburban housewife might be scared of that big black guy walking down her street, but that image doesn't matter if she's MORE scared about affording gas or paying her mortgage.Scare tactic only work when the public is reasonably calm, and that is certainly not the case.

Mccain realized this when he switched to "I am change" message (and picked Palin), but that was also doomed to fail unless Obama made some kind of mistake. Perhaps he was positioning himself as the change guy in case Obama screwed up, but let's face it: Obama is not going to make any mistakes. He's been running a tough campaign for more than a year, and he's made basically ONE mistake during that time (the "cling to guns and religion" comment). He's ahead by a lot, the country is talking about the issue he wants them to be talking about (the economy), and he's got the press friendly with him (even the conservative press, compared to Clinton, anyway).

Public opinion (and voting, even) has probably begun to solidify at this point. The size of the undecideds will shrink again after the second presidential debate, and unless something drastic happens the 3rd debate will likely change no-one's opinion. Obama will produce the turnout he wants because of his money and *gasp* his expertise in community organizing :) McCain will find he has few friends left when his prospects for victory are grim.

Does anyone honestly think that Republican turnout will be high if Obama goes into the election with a 5+ lead in the polls? If the polls on election day look like they do today, then Obama wins by a landslide because turnout for the republicans will be terrible. If the polls are closer, say within 3 percent, then it'll be a lot closer. But so far there seems to be no reason to think the polls will tighten.