Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Dago on December 16, 2008, 11:44:42 AM
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A couple years ago I was telling family and friends that I thought the economy would just be going down as a result of the corporate attempt to outsource all possible work outside of the country. It just seemed obvious to me that if companies in this country sent work out, and as a result unemployed the working class, the middle class, the body of our population that spent and bought the most the economy would suffer. Eventually the people not working, or subsequently underemployed would no longer be able to buy products. When they stop buying products, the companies who sell those products would find sales dropping. It becomes a downward spiral, the less they sell, the more they lay off workers, the more out of work, the less being spent.
I am not by any means an economist, I don't even pretend to by wise in the ways of the financial world, but sure seems to me this is the case. During previous times of economic hardship, wasn't one of the key points to recovery "and provide jobs to the citizens"? Doing the opposite would seem to have lead us down a bad road economically. Will any of the greedy selfish corporate CEOs and Washington politicians recognize this and actually do anything to reverse the trend?
I doubt it.
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I'm inclined to look over what has happened and give serious consideration to the possibility that our current economic situation was planned.
That the individuals involved KNEW they were driving us into.
One of those they LIED to us things.
A classic create a situation that requires the surrender of more power and grab the power.
Now we get the we can fix it BUT you have to do what we say......
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I'm inclined to look over what has happened and give serious consideration to the possibility that our current economic situation was planned.
That the individuals involved KNEW they were driving us into.
One of those they LIED to us things.
A classic create a situation that requires the surrender of more power and grab the power.
Now we get the we can fix it BUT you have to do what we say......
I am inclined to believe lack of forethought on the parts of a lot of arrogant greedy people is the root of the problem rather than some back room conspiracy. The people who created this mess already have all the power. This is hitting and trashing their financial portfolios as well as ours.
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I saw the housing buuble burst coming from a mile away and can't understand how anyone was surprised by it. I believe it is the ultimate root of the current situation.
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Out sourcing was a small part of it, it was the sub prime mortage crisis.
One person who deserves major credit for calling this was Jim Cramer, His show is nutty and hes nutty but he is usually spot on with the market and he realllllllly knows his stuff. So if you ever want advice watch Mad Money, when this whole story broke he showed clips from last year and even earlier of him warning everyone about the situation we're in now, he saw it coming and he was ignored.
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I saw the housing buuble burst coming from a mile away and can't understand how anyone was surprised by it.
I agree and also felt it was time for it to burst, but I feel the ultimate root rests with the lending practices that were encouraged and approved by some of our experts........
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I agree and also felt it was time for it to burst, but I feel the ultimate root rests with the lending practices that were encouraged and approved by some of our experts........
Those very lending practices greatly contributed to the housing bubble. When you make loans available to people unable to repay them it puts more people in the market, increasing demand and making prices rise.
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Yes, saw it for a long time. That's why my little ole house is still my little ole house. Ironically, I see it getting worse. Personally I think our leadership wanted this to happen so they could move along with their agenda. They were warned time and time again and no one did nothing to prevent it. Being the sheeple we are we just accept it.
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I think it all boils down to the fact that there are too many people on this planet, and our resources are finite. Eventually we're going to reach the breaking point.
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The housing problem could have past without such tremendous issues if it weren't for March 14, 2008. The day the Bear died. Actually the problem was March 12th when CEO Alan Schwartz went live on CNBC explaining how they had all this liquidity left. That, in and of itself, started the whole downturn of the markets.
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My mom and where just talking about this mess too. What she sees is U.S. stepping back the way it was in the 50s'-60's. I asked her what she meant by that. She said the way we bought a house and getting a load for it, buying a car, how we had no checks or created cards. I think she may be right.
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This guy Peter Schiff , did see it , amazing economic forecast,deserves the Nobel Prize in economics, maybe he was wrong about the Dollar collapse, but this crisis is not over yet,
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw&feature=rec-HM-r2
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A few years back when I got mutual funds and the guy said in so many years I could have a million bucks I knew it was'nt gonna happen. I wondered how the heck they could do it. Guess they couldnt.
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This guy Peter Schiff , did see it , amazing economic forecast,deserves the Nobel Prize in economics, maybe he was wrong about the Dollar collapse, but this crisis is not over yet,
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw&feature=rec-HM-r2
Wow!! Did you catch the recommendation on Washington Mutual? The bought a bunch of sub-prime loans from that rip off couple and then went belly up. Amazing how much fun they made of this guy and he was right. Wonder if there eating crow now.
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Dago,
It's not the jobs going overseas, its the Chinese controlling the dollar. Some say we are dependent on imports(which may be true due to Chinese not importing nearly enough from us)..... Inflation would rise so high if the production came back. We are now about to suffer deflation which can be worse. Do some research. We tend to take the least path of resistance when assigning blame.
Our dollar is not bad considering what we are going though at the present time but the Chinese control our dollar through various methods. Take steel. They buy it all up when the price goes down creating a shortage and the effect is higher price(Shortage). Now they sit on all they have and watch others pay premiums. The USA has always been reactive and in the case of our economy, it is too late.
Times were good and our property values rose between 7-15% and now we are paying another price. The lending situation is another separate deal. Now our home values shrunk adding to deflation.
The lending institutions bought up so many bad loans when times were good to raise their value and execs got huge multi-million dollar bonuses along with the stocks increasing(I bet your 401k's and pension funds were heavily invested in these banks LOL). Don't forget many of these loans should never been approved. Investments in these institutions were global investments from all over the world. Now seeing the feds lowered the prime, you will see much more borrowing between the banks and some people actually looking to buy a new home. We are paying for everyone's greed including our investing in these institutions. Some mortgages were bought and sold countless times.
Retailers and manufacturers are taking lower margins which again adds to deflation but supplies purchased domestically(such as steel for example, remain rather high). This makes purchasing foreign supplies and products cheaper. It is kinda a trickle down effect.
Although some say we are in a recession, we actually are not until this quarters GDP gets released. The definition of recession is 2 or more quarters consecutively of negative GDP(Gross Domestic Product). 2nd quarter was up and last quarter was down .5%. We can safely assume this quarter will be negative so in January it will be 100% official.
Notice gas prices so low??? Supply and demand. There is a surplus so oil has decreased. OPEC has adjusted production again to regulate price. Oil will go up soon but they need to be careful due to the pressure on the automobile industry developing more hybrids and looking to alternative fuel sources.
The reason I gave these common issues is this is a world economy. We cannot develop a automobile that does not run on gas overnight. The global strain would lead to disaster. We need to slow our dependency on oil over a period of time. As far as China, we do not tax our imports in proportion that other countries tax their imports(Namely ours). It is definitely the wrong time to raise any taxes. There is a fine line to what is currently happening. Damned if you do damned if you don't.
Most of these issues are like water seeking its level. Once banks start doing business again, the home values will level(And increase). Once the auto industry balances their business', they will build more cars(New technology). When the dust settles, all will be good. We need to look to the future, not react to the present. THE JOBS ARE NOT COMING BACK! We probably have 1 more tough year ahead. Hopefully not longer.
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GHI..... Ben Stein was a real idiot on that video!!!!
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I saw problems around december last year when property and housing reached a new high. Started to think about getting out before it tuned so in May i sold my business and retired. Thank cod for that.
Now that im out of it and i dont have to worry about a job i see good things in the crash. Everything had gotten way to expencive (even oil that i think should cost alot) and at some point the push has to break for a reset. It is a healthy thing in the medium to long run, but many will "suffer" abit.
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seen it coming for about 10 years. normal business cycles doing their thing, so business as usual then.
(I am an economist, but anyone having a quick glance at the long term graphs for house prices, stock markets etc would have seen it coming)
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RT,
Traditionally we go through some kind of down turn every decade. Graphs are funny. You can analyse them and tell many things after the fact. They do not always give a true indicator but they sure are a measuring stick and you can tell the trend. You never know when the sucker is gonna bottom out!!!! LOL
Most predicted a year ago that this wasn't going to happen. Some did(few). Seeing the interest rates were so good for a long period of time and our economy was great, a new house was kind of a commodity. They values raised tremendously and the people paid over inflated prices for years. Most could afford a house and the lending institutions made it easy.
One problem was they were approving loans with little or no money down. It takes many years to get any kind of equity out of a home when the first years very little is going to the principle. Now, the price is over inflated with little or no equity. Also, many people refinanced not only to get a lower payment but to erase some debt creating guess what.... No equity! The sins of the past.
Stocks have been over valued for over 10 years. Companies either lied or always gave high projections to raise values. Today, companies sometimes under estimate quarterly or yearly projections to over achieve and this is the way it should be. The economy did so good for a long period dividends were good and stock prices rose and the companies values rose. Heck the New York Yankees are worth over 1 billion dollars. Who woulda thunk! Water is seeking its level in the stock market. It is balancing out.
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GHI..... Ben Stein was a real idiot on that video!!!!
I like Ben Stein as an Actor and gameshow host. How he got a gig as a financial expert is way beyond me. I've read some of his stuff and it makes no sense at least not to me.
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I like Ben Stein as an Actor and gameshow host. How he got a gig as a financial expert is way beyond me. I've read some of his stuff and it makes no sense at least not to me.
I believe he was a speech writer and economic advisor for either Reagan or Bush I.
**edit** He wrote speeches for Nixon and Ford.
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indeed :)
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A couple years ago I was telling family and friends that I thought the economy would just be going down as a result of the corporate attempt to outsource all possible work outside of the country. It just seemed obvious to me that if companies in this country sent work out, and as a result unemployed the working class, the middle class, the body of our population that spent and bought the most the economy would suffer. Eventually the people not working, or subsequently underemployed would no longer be able to buy products. When they stop buying products, the companies who sell those products would find sales dropping. It becomes a downward spiral, the less they sell, the more they lay off workers, the more out of work, the less being spent.
I am not by any means an economist, I don't even pretend to by wise in the ways of the financial world, but sure seems to me this is the case. During previous times of economic hardship, wasn't one of the key points to recovery "and provide jobs to the citizens"? Doing the opposite would seem to have lead us down a bad road economically. Will any of the greedy selfish corporate CEOs and Washington politicians recognize this and actually do anything to reverse the trend?
I doubt it.
One reason the jobs are leaving this country other than the obvious ( cheaper wages) is many manufacturing company's experience too many regulations brought on them via the EPA. OSHA, unions, workman comp fees, disability insurance and so on and so on. Many of these countries that are receiving the outsourced work are destroying their country's enviorment on manufacturing that involves poisonous wastes and hazardous working conditions that would be too expensive here in the states. Take China for example. The country's top 5 rivers are polluted to the max of their current measuring system. They are paying and will continue to pay the price for the lack of these regulations. I live in California and many company's left the state because it's just too expensive to conduct business here. So they moved into states that have cheaper operational costs, insurance, wages. Some of these states have more lax enviormental laws as well. Don't get me wrong there are plenty of CEO's that managed companies right into the ground, the auto industry being one. Their unions aren't helping their cause . Own and run a company for a year and see for yourself just how difficult government makes it. Obama isn't going to help the issue either. Wait and see how many companies leave the country when he implaments his employment requirements for even the smallest of companies. I think we have seen the last of the great American manufacturing might.
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To be honest I was working 80hr weeks so I wasn't paying attention. :uhoh
My company was assured in August that our contracts would be extended for an additional 5 years. :)
I said what the heck and bought the truck I've always wanted. :aok
Four months later we were informed that our contracts were being canceled effective February 1. :cry
Today, December 17,2008, I was offered my first job since I was laid off. :D
Unfortunately it's only temporary until the end of March. :huh
No. I didn't see this one coming. :(
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To be honest I was working 80hr weeks so I wasn't paying attention. :uhoh
My company was assured in August that our contracts would be extended for an additional 5 years. :)
I said what the heck and bought the truck I've always wanted. :aok
Four months later we were informed that our contracts were being canceled effective February 1. :cry
Today, December 17,2008, I was offered my first job since I was laid off. :D
Unfortunately it's only temporary until the end of March. :huh
No. I didn't see this one coming. :(
Was it a GM, Ford or Dodge.....LOL
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It's a Dodge, and I've had a few interesting conversations with Chrysler Financial.
I've only been late on my payments twice and I'm current into the new year.
One conversation in particular stands out in my memory
The CF collector asked me what I intended to do about my late payment as I was watching
Bob Nardelli on the news during hearings for the first request for a bailout.
"Maybe I'll drive down to DC to see if the taxpayers could lend me a hand!" I replied.