Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: killjoy1 on May 05, 2009, 06:25:43 PM
-
This is purely a strategic discussion. Was is possible? What is probable?
If the Taliban pull a Tet Offensive in Pakistan and capture nukes, what will the US response be?
-
A Tet Offensive?
I don't think so.
-
Yeah we didn't think so either.
Till it happend.
-
From my understanding of the military consequences, the Tet offensive was as a failure. The North Vietnamese lost tremendous materiel and manpower for little lasting gain....
The only way the Tet succeeded was politically, because it had definite shock value and was heavily televised. The US population and political leadership was so discouraged by the event that it became a watershed event for a country tired of inconclusive warfare.
In essence, from a purely military standpoint the Tet offensive worked a lot like the Ardennes Offensive of 1944 -- it got fixed assets out into the open so that superior firepower could be brought to bear. There will almost always be a delay in amassing those superior defending forces, which gives an initial impression of offensive success even when their eventual defeat is certain. In reality, those German assets would have cost far more time and casualties to defeat had they remained on the defensive.
In that light, a Taliban Tet would only be dangerous to the degree that the Pakistani forces are truly outmatched (in materiel or espirit).
-
One of the other factors is that the Pakistani army is organized, equipped and trained to fight a conventional war with India, which is why the majority of its forces is located on the eastern area of the country. Also, the Pakistani army is not trained in counter-insurgency warfare. So far, the majority of the Pakistani forces that have been fighting in the western tribal zones have been largely made up of their paramilitary forces. I think when the Taliban started to move out of the Swat region and closed within 60 miles of Islamabad and declared that their intentions was to overthrow the government and install their brand of Islam, it was kick in the pants to the Pakistani military and population. I think it was just recently that the Pakistani military has requested assistance in form of counter-insurgency training, helicopters and night vision equipment.
ack-ack
-
I agree with AckAck, but I think its going to be too little too late.
Taliban are in gear, and rolling, sucking up terrain as fast as they can handle it.
60 miles even in that terrain is 2 or 3 hours, you can move a lot of people over that ground in a day.
I suspect some of this has been setup by those on the inside of the current government over there. In the armed forces for sure.
We'll wake up one of these mornings to a change in government. And be persona non grata over there.
-
The point is, "What if the Taliban capture a nuke stockpile?" and "What if the Taliban can overthrow the government?"
What will be the US response?
I don't think the US can respond. Where would it stage any response? Diego Garcia? India? For that matter what would India do? Does anyone think India would allow the Taliban to have their finger on Pakistan nukes?
If I were the Taliban, I would push on the capital to draw off troops from defending the army bases guarding the nukes and set up a few strikes to try and nab a nuke or two.
I guess the point of all this is a war games scenario. What if?
How well provisioned and armed are the Taliban? Nobody is confident in Pakistan's army that I know of. Anecdotal evidence from army friends in Iraq says working equipment is in short supply there. From their point of view, there's no new equipment and what they have is falling apart.
Does the US have the ability to respond to a nuke threat in Pakistan? How is our air support?
Interesting questions.
-
As far as nukes go . Delivery systems are what separate the big boys from the rest .
-
The Tet Offensive wasn't successful, it was the media that gave the impression it was and even further swayed the US citizens against continued involvement in Vietnam.
So, it is an easy answer... if the media covers the defeats in Afghanistan/Pakistan, no matter how small, it will give the combatants over there just what they need; publicity.
As for the militants being able to take control of the nukes in that country, I don't think that would be a possible goal unless it was via a revolution from within Pakistan with the same core beliefs.
edit: it looks like Simaril beat me to the argument with the same points.
-
The point is, "What if the Taliban capture a nuke stockpile?" and "What if the Taliban can overthrow the government?"
What will be the US response?
I don't think the US can respond. Where would it stage any response? Diego Garcia? India? For that matter what would India do? Does anyone think India would allow the Taliban to have their finger on Pakistan nukes?
Interesting questions.
Afganistan?
wrongway
-
the response in a way is already underway to the current situation...with the drawdown in Iraq ..we are shifting more troops to afghanistan......unfortunatel y Pakistan's own political woes are inhibiting it from doing much of anything... india and pakistan are mortal enemies anyway but I am pretty damn sure that India is watching ...we can stage from kuwait...afghanistan...i hope i answered some of what your seeking..
-
I don't think the US can respond. Where would it stage any response? Diego Garcia? India?
How is our air support?
Arc Light? Strategic bombing FTW! (It would never happen again, but I can dream, can't I?)
-
I think the threat is exaggerated. Remember the Taliban are essentially equipped with Aks and RPGs. Whether or not the the Pakistan army are ill equipped or not. They still outgun the Taliban significantly. On top of that, once they move out of their tribal territories any local support they depend on will evaporate. In some ways this could be a good thing. The Taliban can overreach themselves, be fixed and destroyed. Much like the Viet Cong after Tet. The NVA took on the bulk of the fighting after '68. Guerrilla warfare only works as long as the conventional forces can't find you.
-
If the Taliban get ahold of a nuke, and the codes to make it operable, they don't need delivery systems.
They can throw it in the back of a truck, drive it into the center of Kabaul and leave.
Kaboom! Change of government, huge warning to what happens to anyone who doesn't follow the Taliban.
Would India at that point make the move to take some territory for herself?
Would the Taliban care?
-
I think the threat is exaggerated. Remember the Taliban are essentially equipped with Aks and RPGs. Whether or not the the Pakistan army are ill equipped or not. They still outgun the Taliban significantly. On top of that, once they move out of their tribal territories any local support they depend on will evaporate. In some ways this could be a good thing. The Taliban can overreach themselves, be fixed and destroyed. Much like the Viet Cong after Tet. The NVA took on the bulk of the fighting after '68. Guerrilla warfare only works as long as the conventional forces can't find you.
The problem is that the Pakistani army is ill-trained and equipped to fight a counter-insurgency, let alone the kind that would be similiar to the one we faced in Iraq. They are also hesitant to remove the bulk of their army from the eastern borders with India. We shall see though, the Pakistanis are suppposedly in an offensive in the Swat Valley.
ack-ack
-
The use of a nuke is being way over simplified here.
I'm no expert, but I do know its not a matter of punching in a code and picking a count down like in the movies.
Also Pakistan has said it does not keep its warheads near delivery systems. The DoD seems to agree based on its 'observations'. It also seems Pakistan only has enough weapons grade plutonium for a few warheads, again probably separate or at least in an unassembled state from the warhead.
So its not like the Taliban is going to be able to capture a facility with a working nuke ready to go inside.
It would likely take a lab environment with highly trained personal to do the final assembly and ready the warhead. The again it would take highly trained personal using specialized equipment to successfully detonate the weapon.
The chances of the Taliban getting parts of a warhead, and the chances of them actually detonating it with any success in a nuclear sense are magnitudes apart.
-
Need to support the re-installation of a ruthless secular dictator in Pakistan who will eliminate the taliban and tell the tribal leaders they will uphold Pakistani rule of law or be put to sleep permanently. Cannot be soft with those types, they are like vicious dogs. Kick the hell out of them and they will obey you as master, otherwise they will attack and bite you till you retreat or die.
-
no IMO
-
You guys are all missing the most important point:
It is impossible for the Taliban to pull a Tet Offensive in Pakistan for the simple reason that Tet is the Vietnamese New Year celebration, and is not celebrated in Pakistan. Without Tet - there can be no Tet Offensive.
-
In retrospect, I should not of mentioned Tet. Too late to take it back.
Good comments though.
It's easy to forget how complicated a nuke is. If the Taliban ever got their hands on one, they still would have to figure out how to detonate it. Haul it to Tehran? Make a deal with Tehran for technicians? Kidnap Pakistani techs and make them show you how?
Taliban and Nuke is not a pretty picture any way you look at it.
The only way they get access to nukes and delivery systems is by a coup. I don't have a feel for how stable and capable the present government is. I've heard that the Generals are US trained but that was decades ago. None of the younger officers and troops are US trained.
-
I think a few forget the differances between the NVA, Viet Cong, and the Taliban. Then consider the support each received, and from where.
Then, as previously pointed out, the Tet Offensive was a huge tactical loss, bordering on disaster militarily for the Viet Cong. It was only because of the US press that it became a political victory.
That's a lesson forgotten, or purposely ignored by organizations like the New York Times.
Personally I take delight in reading of the NYT financial problems. I strongly hope they fold up.
-
It happened before in Iran and it could happen even easier in Pakistan. This is a real time bomb waiting to go off.
-
Viet cong and talibans as an offensive foe compare as well as a jungle and a desert...ehmmm.
-
Two years of their charm offensive. http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/attacks-2001-2003.htm
Imagine this crew with nukes, IRBMs, nuclear tipped cruise missiles, nuclear armed F-16s and Mirages, advanced SSKs. http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Pakistan/index.html http://www.nti.org/db/submarines/index.html
-
Are the Pakistani's nuke stockpile in a centralized location or spread out?
ack-ack
-
Are the Pakistani's nuke stockpile in a centralized location or spread out?
ack-ack
Spread out, according to Pakistan and verified by DoD observers. Not only are they spread out, but the components that are kept together are supposedly unassembled. Again, the DoD seems to concur.
-
As far as nukes go . Delivery systems are what separate the big boys from the rest .
Yea this is the hard part, look at N Koreas recent missle launch :salute
-
Question is now, will china or korea give them the blue print to that launch system.Wouldnt that add more back braking pressure to every western nation if achmeds runing around with nukes?
Ah communism helping terrorest, only in my world i guess. Wishful thinkin'?
Achmed & ivan sittin' in a tree, k. i. s. s. i. n. g... :rofl
-
Pakistan would not have the same media impact for a tet style offensive. Baghdad on the other hand might do it if it was done right about the time, already announced, of the US withdrawal.
Pakistan does have the issue of obtaining multiple nuclear weapons and that would go a LONG way to increasing the threat of a terrorist organization. Delivery could be as simple as a conex box on a container ship in a busy harbor. Major impact, major devastation and fallout for lasting effect. Very very easy to do and no ballistic shield to protect against it.
-
Depressing as it sounds, we might be best off to not try to solve this one. There are limits to power projection, and in an area where significant portions of the population thinks the US has imperialistic (if not outright cultural genocidal) aims it's far too easy to make things worse instead of better.
Somtimes "doing something" can make a situation worse.