Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: MarineUS on March 17, 2011, 06:33:27 AM
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Japan's quake: Why California is next
Massive earthquakes sometimes trigger temblors across oceans, says Simon Winchester in Newsweek. And science suggests that, after Japan, the Big One could be coming to California
posted on March 14, 2011, at 11:25 AM
Best Opinion: Newsweek
"Mankind inhabits this Earth subject to geological consent," says Simon Winchester in Newsweek. And, as demonstrated by the earthquake and resulting tsunami that brought Japan to its knees, this consent "can be withdrawn at any time." Japan sits "at the junction of a web of tectonic-plate boundaries that make it more peculiarly vulnerable to ground-shaking episodes than almost anywhere else." But the disaster there can't be viewed in isolation. When one side of a tectonic plate shifts, "the Earth becomes like a great brass bell, which when struck by an enormous hammer blow on one side sets to vibrating and ringing from all over." This can trigger catastrophe on faraway edges of the same great plate, which could be bad news for California. Here, an excerpt:
There was a horrifically destructive Pacific earthquake in New Zealand on Feb. 22, and an even more violent magnitude-8.8 event in Chile almost exactly a year before. All three phenomena involved more or less the same family of circum-Pacific fault lines and plate boundaries.... Now there have been catastrophic events at three corners of the Pacific Plate — one in the Northwest, on Friday; one in the Southwest, last month; one in the Southeast, last year.
That leaves just one corner unaffected — the Northeast. And the fault line in the northeast of the Pacific Plate is the San Andreas Fault, underpinning the city of San Francisco. ...
All know that the San Andreas Fault is due to rupture one day — it last did so in 1906, and strains have built beneath it to a barely tolerable level. To rupture again, with unimaginable consequences for the millions who live above it, some triggering event has to occur. Now three events have occurred that might all be regarded as triggering events. There are in consequence a lot of thoughtful people in the American West who are very nervous indeed — wondering, as they often must do, whether the consent that permits them to inhabit so pleasant a place might be about to be withdrawn, sooner than they have supposed.
Read the full article at Newsweek... http://www.newsweek.com/2011/03/13/the- … -come.html
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this isent a secret. i believe the thought is that someday an earthquake will be strong enough to break california off from the mainland.
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Tell me Doctor, could this have any affect on Yellow stone? :lol
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well, there is enough time before 2012 :noid
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I think the latest I heard about a massive quake hitting California is within the next 30 years
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I think the latest I heard about a massive quake hitting California is within the next 30 years
I was born in SF 43 years ago and I've been in the bay area the whole time. I've been hearing within the next 30 years for at least 30 + years. my point is there is no point in predicting something you cant predict. Just be ready...!!
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Too late,we already had 1 in Canada yesterday..... but seriously it was only a 4.3 centered around the Ottawa area.
These are rare but we've had a couple in the last few years,certainly nothing compared to events in Japan!
Stay save Rolex!!!!
:salute
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this isent a secret. i believe the thought is that someday an earthquake will be strong enough to break california off from the mainland.
False.
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As someone mentioned above, no one can really predict the next big earthquake and where. I know they have been saying the big one that shall 'damn California to the sea' for many, many, many years and it'll be in the next 30 years (almost as much as the whole '2 weeks!' answer from AH). I have no doubt sooner or later it happen; 30 years, 30 days, 30 hours, 30 minutes for now, no one knows for sure. The key thing is to be prepared for it, and hope when it happens, you are fully prepared as hoping. I keep extra pair of shoes in the bathroom. My friend asked me why I do that and I told her that I was reading a story from a earthquake survivor (I think it was the Bay area one). He was in the bathroom at the time when it hit and the mirror shattered. When he was able to get out, his feet were cut pretty good by the glass. So since I read that, I keep extra pair of shoes in there, and extra for my son whenever he is visiting me.
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don't worry fellas, you will each get your own unique painful grizzled death in due time. No one gets out of here alive.
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Japan's quake: Why California is next
Massive earthquakes sometimes trigger temblors across oceans, says Simon Winchester in Newsweek. And science suggests that, after Japan, the Big One could be coming to California
posted on March 14, 2011, at 11:25 AM
Best Opinion: Newsweek
"Mankind inhabits this Earth subject to geological consent," says Simon Winchester in Newsweek. And, as demonstrated by the earthquake and resulting tsunami that brought Japan to its knees, this consent "can be withdrawn at any time." Japan sits "at the junction of a web of tectonic-plate boundaries that make it more peculiarly vulnerable to ground-shaking episodes than almost anywhere else." But the disaster there can't be viewed in isolation. When one side of a tectonic plate shifts, "the Earth becomes like a great brass bell, which when struck by an enormous hammer blow on one side sets to vibrating and ringing from all over." This can trigger catastrophe on faraway edges of the same great plate, which could be bad news for California. Here, an excerpt:
There was a horrifically destructive Pacific earthquake in New Zealand on Feb. 22, and an even more violent magnitude-8.8 event in Chile almost exactly a year before. All three phenomena involved more or less the same family of circum-Pacific fault lines and plate boundaries.... Now there have been catastrophic events at three corners of the Pacific Plate — one in the Northwest, on Friday; one in the Southwest, last month; one in the Southeast, last year.
That leaves just one corner unaffected — the Northeast. And the fault line in the northeast of the Pacific Plate is the San Andreas Fault, underpinning the city of San Francisco. ...
All know that the San Andreas Fault is due to rupture one day — it last did so in 1906, and strains have built beneath it to a barely tolerable level. To rupture again, with unimaginable consequences for the millions who live above it, some triggering event has to occur. Now three events have occurred that might all be regarded as triggering events. There are in consequence a lot of thoughtful people in the American West who are very nervous indeed — wondering, as they often must do, whether the consent that permits them to inhabit so pleasant a place might be about to be withdrawn, sooner than they have supposed.
Read the full article at Newsweek... http://www.newsweek.com/2011/03/13/the- … -come.html
Wow... really?... Newsweek.... thought they could at least use google of fu!@ing the USGS website! California recently has had three - not 0, not 1, not 2, but, yes, THREE! - large/major earthquakes in our territory/vicinity, directly along the ring of fire. One just last year South of the border that caused a measurable amount of damage to the regions that live along it in California and that was very noticabley felt as far north as Bakersfield and Santa Barbara. I believe also within the last year there was a sizable one, causing notable damage and disruption to this place that thankfuly most this country and state always forget about, Northern California, and one that also hit that area only a couple years before that (the Eureka-Humboldt area).
The Ring of Fire (San Andreas) goes off-shore north of San Fran, but it doesn't disapear or just end there, it continues close enough offshore the entire US mainland on the west coast to be as big a threat to everyone living along it as to the people of Japan (lookout Oregon and Washington!).
That entire article is a CROCK! I hope Newsweek didn't pay that writer.
Hey, Kermit, Newsweek says you haven't had any earthquakes hit you recently and we're all living in this state gonna explode into a raging ball of fire soon because we haven't, care to comment?
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Just waiting for that big one here in Kansas
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Well, I like to compare this seismic hazard map:
(http://brainiac-conspiracy.typepad.com/.a/6a00e54eea395a88340147e3365d74970b-500wi)
to this map (List of nuclear plants in North America):
(http://friedmanpedia.pbworks.com/f/US_nuclear_power_plants.gif)
No better than Japan I'm afraid. But no one can predict when catastrophic earthquakes are due until its too late to prevent damage such as we have seen in the last week. We feel too damn well safe in our houses when the forces of nature can rip us out of it in the blink of an eye. However, these articles are just media sensationalism and not to be taken seriously unless numbers from credible sources are out and help show both sides of the coin first.
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I have seen some recent (last few days) scientific studies that lean toward the New Madrid Fault area is due next.
We've been having small (1.0 to 2.0's) here for the last 2 months on a daily basis.
If it really does go BIG---Memphis is going to be mostly toast.
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this isent a secret. i believe the thought is that someday an earthquake will be strong enough to break california off from the mainland.
We all know the Earth's movement will reverse someday and we'll be going back in time jessh. :old:
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Just waiting for that big one here in Kansas
I would to if I lived in Kansas. :rofl Not a big Bball fan but go Jayhawks.
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I was born in SF 43 years ago and I've been in the bay area the whole time. I've been hearing within the next 30 years for at least 30 + years. my point is there is no point in predicting something you cant predict. Just be ready...!!
Did you watch the news this week?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQXDt4VdS0E
This guy is watching the bizare animal, birds and fish behaviour as earthquake warning; last week were lots of dead fish in Redondo Beach, and below, more down along the coast in Acapulco:,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1365538/Japan-earthquake-Swarms-fish-coast-Acapulco-caused-tsunami.html
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Did you watch the news this week?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQXDt4VdS0E
This guy is watching the bizare animal, birds and fish behaviour as earthquake warning; last week were lots of dead fish in Redondo Beach, and below, more down along the coast in Acapulco:,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1365538/Japan-earthquake-Swarms-fish-coast-Acapulco-caused-tsunami.html
There are also certain religious groups who are observing those very same bizzare animal behaviors
as the return of their particular deity or the cleansing of the human race, etc. etc.
My point being, for the most part it is all guessing.
Besides, if the quakes were circling the ring of fire as posted, then Alaska would most likely be hit
next, followed my Mexico. It's all just suggestive reasoning based off of the past and not knowledge
of the future, as far as I'm concerned.
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That nuke map is retarded ...only two plants in Kalifornia in operation
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That nuke map is retarded ...only two plants in Kalifornia in operation
There are only two civilian nuclear plants in operation in California. Already dependent on fossil fuels in California, the two plants face now not being able to extend their operating licenses.
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That nuke map is retarded ...only two plants in Kalifornia in operation
Also, please refrain from using retarded as a means of insult.
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Also, please refrain from using retarded as a means of insult.
It wasn't used as an insult. That's a different stupid debate for a different thread.
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I thought I was feeding the thread instead of hijacking it... :confused:
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I'm more worried about global warming. What ever is destroyed can be repaired, but lives can't.
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this isent a secret. i believe the thought is that someday an earthquake will be strong enough to break california off from the mainland.
The San Andreas Fault is a "strike-slip" fault line meaning that it causes the section of California west of the fault line to move north while the area east of the fault line moves south.
ack-ack
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Did you watch the news this week?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQXDt4VdS0E
This guy is watching the bizare animal, birds and fish behaviour as earthquake warning; last week were lots of dead fish in Redondo Beach, and below, more down along the coast in Acapulco:,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1365538/Japan-earthquake-Swarms-fish-coast-Acapulco-caused-tsunami.html
Those are some ASTOUNDING links ghi, thanks!
These are just the beginning of sorrows.
Regards,
Sun
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Did you watch the news this week?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQXDt4VdS0E
This guy is watching the bizare animal, birds and fish behaviour as earthquake warning; last week were lots of dead fish in Redondo Beach, and below, more down along the coast in Acapulco:,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1365538/Japan-earthquake-Swarms-fish-coast-Acapulco-caused-tsunami.html
Happens all the time here on the west coast.
Step A) Large numbers of sardines reported in the harbors feeding off plentiful food sources, usually spurred by recent mild rains in the days before that was stuff down the drainages and channels and into the harbors.
Step B) A Santa Anna wind condition develops (off shore blowing strong and violent gusts, warm dry air). The wind gradualy lessens in severity as it reaches to coasts, neutralizing the cool onshore flow, waves die down and the surface tempuratures spike and increase on the surface of the cool Pacific Ocean. Usually surf city out here, the ocean becomes so flat and still you can walk on it all the way out to the Catalina Islands (check the surf reports for the days before, during, and after these fish kills for reference). (related, kinda, this is why die-hards surf in the storms, braving the bad weather and contaminated storm runoffs going into the ocean for the killer waves being driven on-shore out here by the seasonal storms that come ashore. And as the clouds and rain passes, you usually still have a couple days worth of waves to enjoy as the rest of the system finishes passing through the region).
Step C) The large numbers of sardines, in a small confined zone of water (an enclosed harbor), suddenly caught in wave-less, warming waters (blooming amounts of bacteria competing for the now rapidly disipating oxygen in the enclosed water area) were quickly overcome when the sun rose that morning after a night of warm santa annas and pushed the bacteria over the limit of tellerance for the fish, who then suffocated.
I swear, everytime there's an earthquake, who keeps giving us California yuppies a bad name? These wanna-be yuppies who don't live here give us a worse name than the ones who do and I have to live and put up with. Everyone needs to get a hint, there is not a spec or corner on this planet that hasn't changed over thousands of years due to seismec activity, quakes happen everywhere at any time. At least I live in a prone region that is A) aware, B) educated and C) prepared for these potentialy catastrophic seismic events. 8 out of 10 homes here are capable of withstanding a major earthquake (may suffer damage, but won't colapse) and/or are prepared to be self-sufficient for up to two weeks (water, food, etc.) with many prepared for even longer periods of time. Personally, it's always a worry, but I'm more concerned about the rest of this country and the impact a major seasmic event might have on a region like New York whenever a quake gets around to hitting them.
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I'm more worried about global warming. What ever is destroyed can be repaired, but lives can't.
oh dear lord..... :bhead
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This is why.
(http://grannygeek.us/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/ring.of.fire-1.gif)
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This is why.
(http://grannygeek.us/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/ring.of.fire-1.gif)
well, as they say...
"saving the best for last" :bolt:
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California is not going to "fall off" as AckAck noted. Plus you have the Pacific plate trying to push EAST, being pushed under California, in effect keeping it pushed onto the continent.
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Learn to swim..........
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Learn to swim..........
never know maybe MI will be a large island someday :lol get out yur flippers :eek:
http://www.datelinezero.com/2010/10/08/a-crack-forms-in-michigans-upper-peninsula/ (http://www.datelinezero.com/2010/10/08/a-crack-forms-in-michigans-upper-peninsula/)
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People that are actually experts in this subject have debunked the article that appeared in Newsweek saying the "theory" laid out in the article was rife with falsehoods and non-scientific leaps of bad logic. As one earthquake geologist stated, Simon Winchester is a popular science writer, not a scientist,".
I guess fear, like sex, is a great way to sell a magazine.
ack-ack
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This is why.
(http://grannygeek.us/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/ring.of.fire-1.gif)
Define any and "major quake" please. Southern end of the Juan de Fuca fault is right where they've had a couple quakes in the 6.0-7.0 range off the coast from Humboldt Bay (Northern California) in the last couple years. Would have to look up the old charts to see if they were close enough to count as being on the Juan de Fuca fault, but definetley close enough in the same ballpark region a far as quakes are concerned to of released some tension on the fault (at least the southern end... look out Seattle).
Edit: Another blatant falacy with the map, the San Andreas fault, it is in the ring of fire... oh wait, that's right, it just had a recent signifigant seismic release of energy less than 12-months ago just south of the US-Mexico border. Seems like they selectively excluded any good (or likely acurate) information from that image that would be reason to calm and assure the general public. Thus it can be assumed it was generated purely to stipulate fear and worry.
People that are actually experts in this subject have debunked the article that appeared in Newsweek saying the "theory" laid out in the article was rife with falsehoods and non-scientific leaps of bad logic. As one earthquake geologist stated, Simon Winchester is a popular science writer, not a scientist,".
I guess fear, like sex, is a great way to sell a magazine.
ack-ack
Like I said, written by someone without a clue and obviously who hasn't lived or even read a newspaper from this region in a very long time - consumed eagerly and readily by those whith less of one.
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All know that the San Andreas Fault is due to rupture one day — it last did so in 1906, and strains have built beneath it to a barely tolerable level.
Really? How do they know it's barely tolerable? Someone dig a hole and check with their pocket strain gauge, or...?
I hate it when otherwise decent articles are stupidified by nonsense like this.
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California in many places only needs to drop about 2 1/2 to 3 feet, for the vally to flood, sure its not california falling* into the ocean,more like the ocean coming up and into california. and that is without a 15-30foot tall tsunami of water running inland to help it along.
What bothers me the most, is the idea of the entire vally becoming like someone pushed a bowl into a full sink of water. Much of california is under sea level.
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Define any and "major quake" please. Southern end of the Juan de Fuca fault is right where they've had a couple quakes in the 6.0-7.0 range off the coast from Humboldt Bay (Northern California) in the last couple years. Would have to look up the old charts to see if they were close enough to count as being on the Juan de Fuca fault, but definetley close enough in the same ballpark region a far as quakes are concerned to of released some tension on the fault (at least the southern end... look out Seattle).
Edit: Another blatant falacy with the map, the San Andreas fault, it is in the ring of fire... oh wait, that's right, it just had a recent signifigant seismic release of energy less than 12-months ago just south of the US-Mexico border. Seems like they selectively excluded any good (or likely acurate) information from that image that would be reason to calm and assure the general public. Thus it can be assumed it was generated purely to stipulate fear and worry.
Like I said, written by someone without a clue and obviously who hasn't lived or even read a newspaper from this region in a very long time - consumed eagerly and readily by those whith less of one.
LOL I was sitting here flying when that went off in April, 7.2 we also had a 6.9 a few months later. I believe.
It refers to Large 8.0 and over.
There are an average of ten 7.0 to 7.9 quakes per year since 1900. Last year 2010 there were double that.
It's part of the Mendocino fracture zone
(http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/graphics/Fig25.gif)
The San Andreas fault zone, which is about 1,300 km long and in places tens of kilometers wide, slices through two thirds of the length of California. Along it, the Pacific Plate has been grinding horizontally past the North American Plate for 10 million years, at an average rate of about 5 cm/yr. Land on the west side of the fault zone (on the Pacific Plate) is moving in a northwesterly direction relative to the land on the east side of the fault zone (on the North American Plate).
(http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/graphics/San_Andreas.gif)
Aerial view of the San Andreas fault slicing through the Carrizo Plain in the Temblor Range east of the city of San Luis Obispo.
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California in many places only needs to drop about 2 1/2 to 3 feet, for the vally to flood, sure its not california falling* into the ocean,more like the ocean coming up and into california. and that is without a 15-30foot tall tsunami of water running inland to help it along.
What bothers me the most, is the idea of the entire vally becoming like someone pushed a bowl into a full sink of water. Much of california is under sea level.
I don't want california to sink 15 ft and then get hit with a 30 ft tsunami because that would probably kill most of my family.
The valley isn't called the "inland sea" because the name sounded cool, it's because it really was a shallow sea until the various fault lines smooshed up the mountains high enough to cut off both ocean and river water sources. Lots of petrified stuff out there including an entire huge petrified forest that must have been nearly instantly covered in water and sediment during a massive and FAST natural disaster thousands of years ago, and now it's out in the middle of a dry desert.
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California in many places only needs to drop about 2 1/2 to 3 feet, for the vally to flood, sure its not california falling* into the ocean,more like the ocean coming up and into california. and that is without a 15-30foot tall tsunami of water running inland to help it along.
None of the fault lines that run through California will cause that to happen, as they are all strike strip faults. At the university I went to, we literally had a section of the San Andreas Fault running through the back end of campus and you can see some foundations of small school that was built in the early 1900's directly ontop of the fault line. The western section of the foundation was about 10 feet north of the eastern section of the foundation.
ack-ack
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California in many places only needs to drop about 2 1/2 to 3 feet, for the vally to flood, sure its not california falling* into the ocean,more like the ocean coming up and into california. and that is without a 15-30foot tall tsunami of water running inland to help it along.
What bothers me the most, is the idea of the entire vally becoming like someone pushed a bowl into a full sink of water. Much of california is under sea level.
:headscratch: :confused: Where's my topo map of the state of California when I need one.
I assume you're talking about the Central Valley and not "The Valley" that we all know and love/hate as the San Fernando Valley (which is well enclosed and above any chance of having ocean-front property anytime soon). Yes, a good deal of the Central Valley is only a few feet above sea level, but has been for a very very long time, this is specificaly because the region from just outside Sacramento going all thay to San Francisco Bay is what we fondly like to refer to as a river delta, specificaly one of the largest on earth I believe - the Sacramento River Delta. This Delta is not heavily populated as it has historicaly long been subjected to seasonal flooding anyways (not so much anymore these days though as we have the entire river under flood control now). Today what is still undeveloped and subject to flooding or changing tidals is vastly unpopulated nature and wetland reserve or argiculture land used for one of our state's more bountiful crops, rice. Most developed areas are on raised areas of land with heavy flood control and drainage as a part of their local infrastructure. Even the highways and roads have been raised a few feet above the delta to avoid the seasonal flooding can still happen during a heavy local storm.
As for a vast amount of our state being a valley with a basin that's well below sea level (and I do believe it is the largest chunk of US territory under sea level), look up Death Valley. Secondly, it's Death Valley, not even the US Marines can take it and settled for nearby and milder 29-sticks, so I don't think we have to worry about too many homes or people being unsettled. Thirdly, it's Death Valley, if they have to start worrying about the aproach of the ocean, the natural disaster within California's territories and iminute flooding of Death Valley will be the least of mankinds problems at that moment in time (its physical location as well as what would be required of the ocean to crest it's surrounding mountains and general region we refer to out here as "the High Dessert").
Edit, ah wait, I think know what you're talking about now, the Tulare Lake Basin? But it's still not below sea level and a ways inland, so I'm a little confused what you're refering to.
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LOL I was sitting here flying when that went off in April, 7.2 we also had a 6.9 a few months later. I believe.
It refers to Large 8.0 and over.
There are an average of ten 7.0 to 7.9 quakes per year since 1900. Last year 2010 there were double that.
Ah, then we're talking about a "big one". Last time I had a look, there is none in modern recorded history on the West Coast of that magnitude or greater for certain. Oddly though, and coincidently too since we're talking about the Juan de Fuca fault and not the San Andreas, it is believed the last "big one" that hit the US West Coast was some time "shortly" before the arival of the Lewis and Clark expedition at its final destination (I believe near the mouth of the Snake?). After L&C arrived at the ocean and settled down to get down to surveying buisness they quickly noted that none (zero, zip, nilch) of the native americans native to the Pacific would set up their villages and tribes on the coasts or anywhere near it, typicaly they would be well above the coast a couple miles or inland along the rivers, again by a couple miles at least. Upon inquiring, each tribe would tell them the same thing, a couple I believe even had very old elders who recounted to L&C of their youth or first-hand accounts told to them - some recounting about the earth shaking violently for a long time, mountains and cliffs colapsing, rocks almost as big as a mountain rolling down the mountains and into the ocean, but primarily they all recounted the same major thing - loosing so many many of their loved ones and people of their tribe to "a great wave" that, according to the legends, came in from the sea (after the shaking to those who recounted it) over 150-feet high in some areas. Some tribes and nations, more dependent/focused on the ocean life than that of the forests to their backs, were completely wiped off the continent whole without a trace. The elders didn't claim to of lost hundreds, but thousands of tribesmen, which L&C didn't think was serious or possible (primarily that there was once so many indians, less-so about a monster wave but they didn't completely buy that either)... but given what we know now what Tsunamis are capable of today (and that they do exist and can happen), it is possible that mega coastal tribes of thousands of native americans once prospered along the West Coast and were simply wiped away along with all evidence of their existence in a split second. Lewis and clark in their diary noted these tales and also refered to some physical proof they observed in old downed and huge snapped trees all below a certain elevation along the coast that would seem to verify the magnitude of the Tsunami that struck. It was obvious though that enough time had passed that the forest had started recovering and was well re-establishing itself when L&C arrived, but L&C at the time concluded the locals were simply superstitious of the ocean.
Take that information from their expedition and diarys though into today and it is belived with some certainty the last major "big one" that hit the West Coast occured ~50-100 years before L&C arrived, somewhere offshore the Oregon coast, likely along the Juan de Fuca fault and over 8.0 magnitude, resulting a gigantic tsunami that hit vast regions of the west coast, displacing most the Native Americans that once lived there and forcing them to settle further inland where the threat of a deadly and sudden tsunami was avoided.
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late Jan,1700 to be exact it was the Cascadia quake in the high 8's the wave hit Japan.
Here is a very good book/study on this subject you might like.
"The Orphan Tsunami of 1700", by geologist Brian F. At water <---sensor getting this
(http://i836.photobucket.com/albums/zz281/Megalodon2/sunami.jpg?t=1300847109)
Some think since the Fuca plate has fractured twice, Explorer and Gorda plate's, there we'll be 3 smaller quakes 7.8-8.5 instead of 1 very large quake 8.7-9.5.
The Fuca plate is the smallest sub plate in the world and dives under the north american plate.