Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => Hardware and Software => Topic started by: Krusty on January 20, 2012, 09:10:36 AM
-
When are these silly HDD prices predicted to return to normal? The prices at 2x normal are ridiculous. I may need one soon, but will hold off until the prices drop. I'm just wondering how long that might be.
-
Dont tell me...
our inflation got out of control. One Euro was 240 HuF 6 months ago, now its around 320, even was 330 a couple weeks ago.
The machine i built for 140K Huf ~ 700 Bux in May cant be built from 220K ~ 1100 Bux now. A dam 1TB winchester costs 180-200 Bux...
-
When are these silly HDD prices predicted to return to normal? The prices at 2x normal are ridiculous. I may need one soon, but will hold off until the prices drop. I'm just wondering how long that might be.
Take a towel and help the manufacturers dry their machines. There's only about 5 feet of it...
(http://images.anandtech.com/doci/5127/Flooding_of_Rojana_Industrial_Park,_Ayutthaya,_Thailand,_October_2011_575px.jpg)
(http://www.brightsideofnews.com/Data/2011_11_1/PHOTO-Horrific-Images-of-Flooded-Western-Digital-Factory/WD_FloodB_689.jpg)
-
That's from October. The water is gone. It was a temporary slowdown, and I understand the supply of resources to other manufacturers (like HDD makers) isn't the fastest to react and recover, but really? I question the price raise. It smacks to me of opportunism on the makers' part. Surely they can restore their production lines in 5 months' time? Or source alternative? They can't be waiting for daily shipments, and building in bulk they MUST have had supplies stored up to at least some degree.
Seems the prices went up out of fear of disruption rather than actual disruption. Is this the stock market or an actual object? I mean, either they're not getting the controller chips, or they are. If they're making the drives it means they are, and prices should drop, right? If they're NOT making the drives -- well then the price of drives built BEFORE this event and stored in warehouses waiting to be sold shouldn't go up, right?
Regardless of these hypotheticals and random thoughts on my part... I'm looking for when it drops back to normal. Next quarter? 6 months? Next year?
-
That's from October. The water is gone. It was a temporary slowdown, and I understand the supply of resources to other manufacturers (like HDD makers) isn't the fastest to react and recover, but really? I question the price raise. It smacks to me of opportunism on the makers' part. Surely they can restore their production lines in 5 months' time? Or source alternative? They can't be waiting for daily shipments, and building in bulk they MUST have had supplies stored up to at least some degree.
Seems the prices went up out of fear of disruption rather than actual disruption. Is this the stock market or an actual object? I mean, either they're not getting the controller chips, or they are. If they're making the drives it means they are, and prices should drop, right? If they're NOT making the drives -- well then the price of drives built BEFORE this event and stored in warehouses waiting to be sold shouldn't go up, right?
Regardless of these hypotheticals and random thoughts on my part... I'm looking for when it drops back to normal. Next quarter? 6 months? Next year?
It's really difficult to say. I read that the HDD manufacturers wanted OEM's to sign contracts that locked in current prices for several years, which is fairly sleazy, and might be a sign that they will try to milk as much as they can out of this situation.
Unfortunately, the 3.5" (Toshiba is still making 2.5" drives) HDD market is now a duopoly, with Western Digital and Seagate, now that Seagate has purchased Samsung. They are really in a good position to bend us over now that prices are comfortably (for them) high. Although, I guess we do have to keep in mind that they have to rebuild their infrastructure again, which probably requires a lot of capital.
The good news is, SSD technology is advancing rapidly as well as competition within the SSD market. However, it will still be a LONG while before we see equivalent capacity SSDs at a reasonable price...
-
they predicted during the summer prices will go down. I went to bestbuy the other day and they have cheaper prices on some models inside the store. dont bother to check with their ownline site as the prices are higher. but if you need one right away I would go to the local stores and compare prices first. I need to get a couple to do raid, but I have more time than money, actually i am willing to spend more time than money as I dont really need to do raid as I have plenty of space.
just read sectornine50 posting as i press "post" on mine. forgot i have been looking at the prices for the ssd/velociraptor and they seem to have gone down in price a bit. that is always another option.
semp
-
WD bought Samsung? Interesting... I was thinking of those Samsung 1TB drives (4 of them in RAID 1+0) for a 2GB fast drive. Well, now I can at least know those particular drives won't be coming down for a little while. I thought "Oh, Samsung, they're not affected by that flood as much as ones located there!" but apparently that's not the case if their parent company was!
-
WD bought Samsung? Interesting... I was thinking of those Samsung 1TB drives (4 of them in RAID 1+0) for a 2GB fast drive. Well, now I can at least know those particular drives won't be coming down for a little while. I thought "Oh, Samsung, they're not affected by that flood as much as ones located there!" but apparently that's not the case if their parent company was!
It's Seagate that bought Samsung (just their HDD division), but same idea. It sucks seeing HDD "sales" that are still above the price they used to be before the flooding... :frown:
-
my bad, yes, seagate. It's right there in your post. I had a few windows open and made a slip because of a WD article.
<-- bad Krusty, bad!
-
On today's paper several PC dealers predicted a raise in computer prices in a couple of months, because the old cheaper stock items are running out. The delivery times of dedicated professional computers have doubled, from 3 to 6 weeks. They estimated the high prices would come down during this year. The worst peak has fortunately been and gone, but the prices will still remain high until the production is stable again. There's still demand for double the amount of hard disks available and produced, so they must reduce demand. Semp, you're a perfect example how that works! :)
Krusty, you are right, those WD pictures are from October. But remember, it isn't just the factory floors that have a slight moisture defect, or the machinery, or the stock of components. The roads and rails have suffered, too, and have to be rebuilt to be able to carry heavy loads. The rebuild costs have to be covered, too, although I guess the insurance companies at least partially pay the bill for the factories, and the Thai government will take care of public transport ways. Also, there's much more than just some industrial areas damaged by the flood, the repairing of which isn't cheap. (http://www.thailandtoday.org/situation)
And the water isn't gone, here's what it looked like a fortnight ago:
(http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/image/20120104/22683784-ap.jpg)
-
They will not come down this year, let alone "in the summer". Western Digital has started Partial Production which was ahead of schedule.
The Seagate CEO Stephen J. Luczo has said: "It will be the end of 2012 before 'full production' resumes. It will be even longer than that, to reach 'pre-flood pricing'."
Stephen also praised it's competitor WD, for resuming the partial production.
-
They will not come down this year, let alone "in the summer". Western Digital has started Partial Production which was ahead of schedule.
The Seagate CEO Stephen J. Luczo has said: "It will be the end of 2012 before 'full production' resumes. It will be even longer than that, to reach 'pre-flood pricing'."
Stephen also praised it's competitor WD, for resuming the partial production.
This agrees with what I've read: Supplies of hard drives for system makers are expected to be around 25% to 35% below demand, so retail prices will remain high, probably for the rest of 2012.
-
Highly agreed. As a matter of fact, if your family members need a surfboard, now is the time to get one before the lack of HDD's really hits. Of course this doesn't apply to gaming rigs, our needs are totally different to our spouses'.
-
My GF's computer needed a new hard drive after hers started to intermittently crash. Rather than buying one I ended up cannibalizing an external "DVR Expander" drive I had sitting around collecting dust. I only used it about 2 months before I switch my cable service and it was shelved after I realized it wasn't compatible with the new DVR.
Anyway I took it apart and it had a 3.5" WD Green 500GB drive inside. I partitioned it and ghosted her old drive over to it and it's been working great for her for a few weeks now!
I think we'll be seeing a lot more of this sort of thing until drive prices stabilize, that's for sure!
-
Tigger,
that reminds me of the thread I started/posted a lil while back regarding buying the cheaper external USB Hard Drives instead of the currently more expensive Internal HD's.......
Topic: Cheap Alternative for Hard Drive Purchasing
http://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,324759.0.html
with the recent price increase on most all Hard Drives, I may have a cheaper alternative for those wanting or needing to purchase a 1TB ~ 3 TB SATA III 6.0 GBs internal HD
Newegg is running sales on External Hard Drivesfor most Brands/Manufacturers, to where the enclosed/included HD is the same as their Internal HD cousin, yet the cost is only 1/2 or even 1/3rd of what the Internal HD is costing verses what the External USB 3.0 ( SATA III 5.0/6.0 GBs speed ) version costs
example:
Hitachi Internal 2TB 7200 rpm 64 mb cache SATA III 6.0 GBs Hard Drive oem = $249.99 + $7.28 shipping
newegg link: http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822145473
( edit: there is a possibility they might use this HD in the below External USB 3.0 HD enclosure, it is a toss up of which one you might get ??? )
cheaper internal Hitachi 2TB HD link: http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822145475 HITACHI Deskstar 5K3000 HDS5C3020ALA632 (0F12117) 2TB 32MB Cache SATA 6.0Gb/s 3.5" Internal Hard Drive -Bare Drive
$179.99 + $7.28 shipping ............ but you still will save nearly 1/2 buy purchasing the external model
compared to its External cousin
HITACHI Touro Desk Pro 2TB USB 3.0 ( ='s SATA III 5.0/6.0 GBs speed ) Black External Hard Drive = $99.99 with Free Shipping
newegg link: http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822145509&cm_sp=DailyDeal-_-22-145-509-_-Product
this figures out to be 257.27 - 99.99 = a savings of $ 157.28 by going this route, plus the added bonus of a USB 3.0 External HD enclousre
You can remove the 2TB Hitachi HD from the external enclosure and install it in your computer, and still have the use of the USB 3.0 External Housing ( which is backwards compatible 3.0 ~ 2.0 ) for any other Hard Drives you might have laying around
just an alternative suggestion, that can save you money and also get yourself an External HD enclosure
hope this is of some use for someone
cheers
TC
I have not checked any pricing since the 1st of the year............ but have noticed that newegg still posts some external HD's in their "Daily deals" every so often......
Also, it seems that their are alot of "Remanufactured" HDs being advertised as of late.......
TC
-
Wow... into 2013, huh? Yikes.
I knew of course they'd want to try to recoup the cost of lost production, though I presume they have a lot of insurance to help with the damages. What I didn't think about was the infrastructure (roads, etc, that Bizman mentioned). A very valid concern, and one I didn't think about.
-
Very few people do think about infrastructure. You just proved to be a responsible man in my eyes, Krusty. :salute
In fact, it wasn't until I started digging out facts for this thread that I began to understand how vast the consequences of the flood were - and still are. From my winter wonderland point of view the people there live in bamboo huts, rebuilt quickly as the second little pig's house of sticks. But hard disks are delicate pieces of machinery. They can't be produced in those traditional tall legged Thai houses or transported in long-tails...
(http://galenf.com/viet_nam/thailand22.jpg)
-
maybe they should move production back to the west, these climate issues are only going to get worse :)
With the decline of Western economies we will willing to make them for £15 a week :)
-
They build their companies there for economics reasons: They are dirt cheap to work in and give plenty of benefits to companies that wish to locate there. Depending on which country, they also are lax on child labor laws, minimum wages, etc etc...
In short, the company pays less to make the same product.
-
no good if everything gets wet :)
-
There's an app for that.
(http://a4.mzstatic.com/us/r1000/020/Purple/d8/54/46/mzl.rigegypu.320x480-75.jpg)
:D
-
There's an app for that.
(http://a4.mzstatic.com/us/r1000/020/Purple/d8/54/46/mzl.rigegypu.320x480-75.jpg)
:D
:rofl :rofl
They build their companies there for economics reasons: They are dirt cheap to work in and give plenty of benefits to companies that wish to locate there. Depending on which country, they also are lax on child labor laws, minimum wages, etc etc...
In short, the company pays less to make the same product.
and everything is about money and big business in this world.... the man who can make the most survives above water longer (no pun intended).
-
This wouldn't have happened if the U.S. actually produced something...ahh wait.
Wish they would go down, went to look at a wishlist hard drive 1TB on newegg that once was under 100 and now is 279.99.
-
WD claim they would be up to 100% in september this year.
-
So this stuff isn't going to drop at ALL? Jesus, need to buy a new 1-2tb storage drive and debating on buying an external and taking the enclosure off since they are generally cheaper for some reason. Looking at about 130 for a 1.5 or 2TB drive...obviously not a good price but I'm not sure if I can wait a year.
-
If you want to save money you may have to do that. Even when they're back at 100% production levels doesn't mean they'll have satisfied themselves with 100% "profit" levels... No telling how long this price issue will last.
-
If you want to save money you may have to do that. Even when they're back at 100% production levels doesn't mean they'll have satisfied themselves with 100% "profit" levels... No telling how long this price issue will last.
Figures...if they dropped below $100 I'd be overjoyed considering they were 80ish?
-
So this stuff isn't going to drop at ALL? Jesus, need to buy a new 1-2tb storage drive and debating on buying an external and taking the enclosure off since they are generally cheaper for some reason. Looking at about 130 for a 1.5 or 2TB drive...obviously not a good price but I'm not sure if I can wait a year.
My guess would be 2nd Quarter of 2013.