Aces High Bulletin Board

General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Grape on February 24, 2012, 03:04:02 PM

Title: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Grape on February 24, 2012, 03:04:02 PM
I once read (a while ago) that a scientist was able to predict regional earthquakes (Pakistan's last big one) using the effects of lunar and solar gravitational pull to find the 'spots' on the earth that would be most prone to techtonic slippage. Today I read that there will be a line up of Jupiter, Venus and our own moon over the weekend...Makes me wonder if the earth is going to have a notable quake this weekend? Thoughts?
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: MrMeanie on February 24, 2012, 03:22:49 PM
 :noid
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Tupac on February 24, 2012, 03:31:49 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CArWivYt208&noredirect=1

 :noid
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Tupac on February 24, 2012, 03:33:15 PM
And of course the remix

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AF_CxVgxSbU
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Jayhawk on February 24, 2012, 03:33:22 PM
I would imagine that Jupiter and Venis' gravitational pull on earth is fairly negligible.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Tupac on February 24, 2012, 03:35:00 PM
The moon has a much greater pull and it circles the globe in a little under 28 days or so.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Shane on February 24, 2012, 03:38:45 PM
The moon has a much greater pull and it circles the globe in a little under 28 days or so.

it adds up, and maybe juuuuuust enough to trigger something.

maybe.  all he's saying the probility goes up a wee.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: grizz441 on February 24, 2012, 04:15:34 PM
Sounds to have about as much impact as the wind of a butterfly wing affecting the outcome of a hurricane on the other side of the world.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Grape on February 24, 2012, 04:19:07 PM
I like the remix version.  :aok
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Shane on February 24, 2012, 04:56:50 PM
Sounds to have about as much impact as the wind of a butterfly wing affecting the outcome of a hurricane on the other side of the world.

it does.

 :noid
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: curry1 on February 24, 2012, 05:07:12 PM
My dad recently went to a space weather convention in New Orleans.  There he listened to a presentation on how it is actually possible to predict a Tsunami.  When an underwater earthquake leading to a Tsunami happens it pushes up a very large area of water a few feet.  The water moving up effects the atmosphere above all the way to the ionosphere.  The disturbed ionosphere messes with the communications of GPS satellites.  Depending on how and where the communications are being slightly garbled by the moving ionosphere gives you an actual direction and speed of the incoming tsunami.  This data was observed after the recent Tsunami in Japan and the GPS data during the Tsunami's path.  Freaking amazing stuff.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: saggs on February 24, 2012, 09:47:52 PM
I once read (a while ago) that a scientist was able to predict regional earthquakes (Pakistan's last big one) using the effects of lunar and solar gravitational pull to find the 'spots' on the earth that would be most prone to techtonic slippage. Today I read that there will be a line up of Jupiter, Venus and our own moon over the weekend...Makes me wonder if the earth is going to have a notable quake this weekend? Thoughts?

I believe your talking about Jim Berkland, former USGS geologist. Here's his website and bio.

http://www.syzygyjob.com/index.php?Itemid=27&id=13&option=com_content&task=view

People may think earthquake prediction is all  :noid  but his record is pretty dang good. 

Just think about how much water the Moon is pulling around with the tides, and of course it's pulling just as hard on tectonic plates.


Although I would think Jupiter and Venus are way to far away to have any effect.  But I believe the Moon's apogee and perigee most definitely have an effect.  Like I said, look at the tides.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: PFactorDave on February 24, 2012, 09:51:43 PM
My dad recently went to a space weather convention in New Orleans.  There he listened to a presentation on how it is actually possible to predict a Tsunami.  When an underwater earthquake leading to a Tsunami happens it pushes up a very large area of water a few feet.  The water moving up effects the atmosphere above all the way to the ionosphere.  The disturbed ionosphere messes with the communications of GPS satellites.  Depending on how and where the communications are being slightly garbled by the moving ionosphere gives you an actual direction and speed of the incoming tsunami.  This data was observed after the recent Tsunami in Japan and the GPS data during the Tsunami's path.  Freaking amazing stuff.

Now that is interesting
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: ghi on February 25, 2012, 08:36:34 PM
My dad recently went to a space weather convention in New Orleans.  There he listened to a presentation on how it is actually possible to predict a Tsunami.  When an underwater earthquake leading to a Tsunami happens it pushes up a very large area of water a few feet.  The water moving up effects the atmosphere above all the way to the ionosphere.  The disturbed ionosphere messes with the communications of GPS satellites.  Depending on how and where the communications are being slightly garbled by the moving ionosphere gives you an actual direction and speed of the incoming tsunami.  This data was observed after the recent Tsunami in Japan and the GPS data during the Tsunami's path.  Freaking amazing stuff.
 
Yes amazing stuff, i read about this after Japan earthquake last year,  right now  is "hot" north north of New Zeland.
http://www.ips.gov.au/Images/Satellite/Total%20Electron%20Content/Regional%20Maps/World_tec.gif

http://www.ips.gov.au/Images/HF%20Systems/Global%20HF/Ionospheric%20Map/WorldIMap.gif

Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: FTJR on February 25, 2012, 10:00:30 PM
Amazing stuff, but is there an explanation as to how to read the charts? I mean, obviously red means hotzone, but how do they derive this?

Tks
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: ghi on February 25, 2012, 11:54:26 PM
Amazing stuff, but is there an explanation as to how to read the charts? I mean, obviously red means hotzone, but how do they derive this?

Tks

It's explained here;
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26773/

.. and here how the maps are edited.
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/5
http://iono.jpl.nasa.gov/gim.html

Since i posted this 2 hours ago, just look at this hot area earthquakes;
http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: curry1 on February 25, 2012, 11:57:53 PM
It's explained here;
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26773/

.. and here how the maps are edited.
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/5
http://iono.jpl.nasa.gov/gim.html

Since i posted this 2 hours ago, just look at this hot area earthquakes;
http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/

So the hotzone you posted yesterday devolved into a small earthquake today.  Wow.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: FTJR on February 26, 2012, 12:18:51 AM
It's explained here;
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26773/

.. and here how the maps are edited.
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/6/5
http://iono.jpl.nasa.gov/gim.html

Since i posted this 2 hours ago, just look at this hot area earthquakes;
http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/

Thanks Ghi
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Vulcan on February 26, 2012, 05:07:41 PM
So the hotzone you posted yesterday devolved into a small earthquake today.  Wow.

Yeah predicting that an earthquake would occur in that zone is like predicting a vtard attack will likely drop all the hangars.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: Grape on February 27, 2012, 12:30:33 AM
I guess the compounding gravity theory needs some more work, or I need a better understanding of it. I just thought it would be interesting if there was a 'significant' quake as a result of the extra tug.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: ap1102 on February 27, 2012, 06:34:39 AM
SCREW THE EARTHQUAKES>>>MAY GOD SAVE US FROM THIS...........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaJcmDIfcyM&feature=related
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: dedalos on February 27, 2012, 09:13:45 AM
Thoughts?

Yes, you?  :noid
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: mthrockmor on February 27, 2012, 09:35:02 AM
Interesting discussion. Considering the Pacific rim is full of earthquakes...if one looks at the trend I think in the next couple of years we are going to see an ubber quake in California.

The Pacific rim over the past 4 or 5 years has had a big 7.0 or greater from the Christmas quake and tsunami, of course Japan, big one off New Zealand then Chile. Every zone has had a big one over the past few years but the del feugo (sic) North American zone. And this fits the hot spot of California.

Who knows, I don't but what I think sounds reasonable. The whole plate is moving and nothing goes untouched. Better grab hold of something if you live in the land of nuts!

Boo
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: grizz441 on February 27, 2012, 11:32:04 AM
I once read (a while ago) that a scientist was able to predict regional earthquakes (Pakistan's last big one) using the effects of lunar and solar gravitational pull to find the 'spots' on the earth that would be most prone to techtonic slippage. Today I read that there will be a line up of Jupiter, Venus and our own moon over the weekend...Makes me wonder if the earth is going to have a notable quake this weekend? Thoughts?

Wouldn't the "line up" of all the planetary bodies pull on the earth normal to whatever point on earth they project onto?  Plus the earth is spinning and might be "tilted" (the pacific rim that is) relative to their line of site.  The point is, who is to even say they line up with a critical tectonic plate?  That point aside, you can figure out what gravitation influence that each body has on earth with this equation:

F = G *{{m_1*m_2}/{r^2}}

I just calculated the forces each body acts on one another.  Between the three bodies, moon, jupiter, and venus, approximately,  The moon contributes 98.9% of the force, Jupiter contributes 0.6%, and Venus 0.5%.  

As expected, jupiter and venus contribute very little to the gravitation force on earth.  Factor in the Sun's contribution and they become negligible.
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: dedalos on February 27, 2012, 12:56:32 PM
I predict there will be an earthquake in the next 6 hours.  :old:  If I am correct, this will initiate the end of the world.  PM me for a bank account to send your money to so you can all go to heaven.  First class tickets also available for the a higher fee.

The clock is ticking  :old:
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: SEraider on February 27, 2012, 01:22:07 PM
We're all gonna DIE!  :banana:
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: dedalos on February 27, 2012, 03:02:46 PM
It is now too late  :old:

1 hour ago       5.6       Ryukyu Islands, Japan
Title: Re: Earthquake Prediction
Post by: 321BAR on February 27, 2012, 03:09:59 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY&ob=av2e