Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: rogwar on May 23, 2012, 11:35:21 AM
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The Euro is looking more like it's headed for disaster. I wonder if there will be a domino effect of if the major countries will keep it, that being mainly France and Germany. Interesting headlines on the major financial news sites. It's already having an impact on the global markets.
This is not intended to start a political discussion but rather financial and economic.
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Stop worrying we have a new sound pack form Mitsu :)
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Stop worrying we have a new sound pack form Mitsu :)
There seems to be some security issues with that new sound pack. :)
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The Euro is looking more like it's headed for disaster. I wonder if there will be a domino effect of if the major countries will keep it, that being mainly France and Germany. Interesting headlines on the major financial news sites. It's already having an impact on the global markets.
This is not intended to start a political discussion but rather financial and economic.
I don't know how much longer the German people are going to be willing to carry the less fiscally responsible countries like Greece.
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When the Euro crashes it is going to suck the wind right out of everything.
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There seems to be some security issues with that new sound pack. :)
I downloaded it and its fine :old:
Microsoft esentials sorted out problem :old:
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I don't know how much longer the German people are going to be willing to carry the less fiscally responsible countries like Greece.
They do what they are told like everyone else :)
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They do what they are told like everyone else :)
Hey, we invented the "do as you are told!" :noid
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I downloaded it and its fine :old:
Microsoft esentials sorted out problem :old:
Yes hopefully Mitsu pulls it and cleans it up.
I never thought the euro was going to fly as long as it has.
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As long as you have your health and good frame rates its best not to worry about these events :)
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As long as you have your health and good frame rates its best not to worry about these events :)
:rofl
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Hey, we invented the "do as you are told!" :noid
:rofl
Hurrah!
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the greeks will have to comply with ECB requirements for budget balancing to stay in the eurozone. they have already shown they have no appetite at all for sorting out their budget, so odds are they will be out. how is anyones guess - theres no mechanism for leaving ...
after leaving the euro and defaulting on all their debts, they will try to borrow from the markets to support their almost-no-income but massive expenditure budget and find out that no one will lend to them, at any rate. bankrupt state, no police, no courts, etc etc. the remains of greece will be picked over by investors worldwide who will eventually own every piece of it thats worth having. argentina got away with it but they have a fantastic natural resources, not just nice beaches.
my feeling is that if they were to do a complete u-turn, tighten their belts even further and do what the eurozone tells them they will have a very painful 5-10yrs, but with a future. on the current path they will be the poorest country in europe for a generation or two.
losing greece would free up resources to support other vulnerable eurozone economies - portugal, spain and italy, but they will face the same choice - tighten your belts, take the pain and tough it out for a few years or face almost unthinkable consequences.
from a distance as an economist this is fascinating, as a brit its slightly worrying and as a businessman its already costly. french company groupama were derated from AAA fairly recently which meant we had to switch to a different partner, cost me personally almost a months work to sort it out although theres no obvious ongoing costs (apart from reducing the competition in the market somewhat.)
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Can I borrow £20 RT :rofl
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no problem, and I only charge 5%! :)
(interest calculated and applied daily. unlawful, and sometimes illegal, terms and conditions may apply)
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By the way inclusion of Greece into the Euro has been a success as it has with all the other countries :)
As with all these type of countries before thier inclusion they were unorganised and uncontrollable, now they have to follow the economic rules and conform :)
RT how does 3% sound :rofl
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And so it begins.....
Regards,
Sun
Citigroup Economists Say Greece To Exit Euro Zone On Jan. 1 2013
LONDON – Greece will leave the euro zone on Jan. 1 2013 and its new currency will immediately fall by 60% against the euro, unleashing a sizeable and unavoidable wave of contagion across Europe, Citigroup said late Wednesday.
In a note to clients, the world's second-largest currency trading bank said the consequences of a Greek exit--or "Grexit"--would accelerate strains in the European banking system and probably force the European Central Bank to restart its long-term refinancing operations and halve its interest rates to 0.5%.
"We expect that Grexit will be followed by a series of policy responses aiming to prevent a domino-style collapse of the banking system and escalating economic disruption," Citigroup economists said in the note.
Citigroup said the probability of Greece leaving was now between 50-75% and added that a Greek exit would become its base case unless next month's elections stabilised the situation.
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/05/24/citigroup-economists-say-greece-to-exit-euro-zone-on-jan-1-2013/#ixzz1vmHmJtQl
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Don't know if they'll last until January next year. The bookmakers are offering 1/10 on Greece exiting the Euro. That's bookmaker speak for we don't want any more bets on this because it's a certainty.
The problem with Greece is that they never should have joined in the first place. But they were 'allowed' to join by some fiddling of the figures by the EU.
Meanwhile we here in Ireland are heading down the same road albeit more slowly. Meanwhile we're voting here to hand over the last of our independance to Berlin in a so called fiscal treaty. The long term effect of it will be that we'll barely have more tax raising abilities than the average American state.
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I am going to build a bunker and fill it with bake beans :rofl
RT is going to lend me £20 so it cannot be that bad and he knows about finance :) :rofl
In the Wigan Gazette its main financial page has confirmed that the Greek government has agreed to all the demands of the IMF and European leaders :old:
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I wouldnt pin any hopes on that - its a minority caretaker government with no mandate or support. the greeks have about 3 weeks for the message to sink in that you cant have your cake and eat it, and then vote appropriately. I suspect the penny will drop, but only after its way too late.
Meanwhile we here in Ireland are heading down the same road albeit more slowly. Meanwhile we're voting here to hand over the last of our independance to Berlin in a so called fiscal treaty. The long term effect of it will be that we'll barely have more tax raising abilities than the average American state.
a fully federal europe was always going to be a consequence of a single currency, and why the UK has always ruled it out.
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It's interesting to get the opinion of you locals on the European continent. Thanks for sharing.
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:rofl
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I'm spending my Euro's on Skittles and Dr. Pepper.
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It occurs to me that maybe the solution should be Germany leaving the Euro. Then the rest of the Euro Union could devalue the Euro to solve some of their shortfalls.
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nice lateral thinking :aok
wont happen because as the strongest economy in the eurozone germany benefits most from the single currency. a major reason they export so much is because their currency is artificially weak.
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i can't add :) with google noscript lol
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i never ever wanted the € i miss my DM (Deutsch Mark) ! :cry
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well reunification+euro or 2 independent german states was the choice after the USSR fell apart ... given your location I'm guessing you would have picked the latter?
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(http://veja.abril.com.br/assets/images/2010/10/20207/yuan-moeda-china-02-size-598.jpg?1287080216)
:noid
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well reunification+euro or 2 independent german states was the choice after the USSR fell apart ... given your location I'm guessing you would have picked the latter?
what have the reunification to do with the € ?
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almost everything, without the fall of the USSR and the freedom of east germany the euro project may never have happened. it certainly forced the deal.
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almost everything, without the fall of the USSR and the freedom of east germany the euro project may never have happened. it certainly forced the deal.
LOL
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RTHolmes, it has been a very long process. The EU began with the treaty of Paris in 1952. Greece joined, what was then known as the EC, in 1981, at the height of the Cold War.
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sure, but by "euro project" I mean specifically the single european currency.
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nice lateral thinking :aok
wont happen because as the strongest economy in the eurozone germany benefits most from the single currency. a major reason they export so much is because their currency is artificially weak.
And there's the crux of the matter. Germany benefits greatly from the Union and the single currency. The Germans stand to lose quite a bit if the Euro breaks down. The bank failures that are threatened by the current states that are in trouble will also greatly hurt the Germans, as well as everyone else.
So, in the end, I expect Germany to bend a little and help bail out the troubled countries. It's really in their best interest in the end. But if they don't get the troubled countries to reform first, it will just postpone the problem.
It's really a difficult position, in my opinion.
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There seems to be some security issues with that new sound pack. :)
that's the problem mitsu doesnt want euro's anymore. it's either home grown sinsemilla or some thai stuff. and he wants a guaranteed delivery, last one was dropped off about 12 miles off dana point and the sharks ate some of it, no swimming allowed in sou cal as the sharks got the munchies now.
semp
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The Euro is a joke, and I have waited far to long for the punchline.
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In what way do you think the Euro is a joke?
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A single currency between multiple countries and multiple performing economies as a good idea.
That I find funny.
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Works for the Dollar...
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The Dollar doesn't cover multiple countries, but multiple states of one country.
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The U.S. is a federation of (in theory at least) sovereign states. The EU doesn't have a strong federal government (yet), but California and Alaska are as different as Italy and Finland, both in culture and economic performance. The average household income in Maryland is twice that of Mississippi.
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:old: I'm telling ya! yuan is za future!!
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That may be true, however depressing...
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OOoowww Raph... that's a burn...
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Roll up roll up roll up
cheap European holidays for sale..
get em while its hot
roll up roll up roll up
we got culture..good food..beaches and "beeches"
get em while there hot
Form an orderly que por favor...
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"almost everything, without the fall of the USSR and the freedom of east germany the euro project may never have happened. it certainly forced the deal."
LOL
Gh0stFT, you realize that he is right .. right? One of the many deals that were made to re-unite Germany was to have a common european currency. It was a French pet idea at the time (Mitterand and Delors) but it dates back a lot farther. Without saying "Ja" to what would become the Euro, there would have been a "Non" to reunification.
There is a bit of an irony here that the Euro was supposed to chain Germany into the EU but it looks more like the rest of the EU is tied up to Germany now with little air to breathe. Putting wheel clamps on a Tank. :D
Something is going to give, and I suspect it will be Germany (and the richer countries of the EU). They will pay up, at least for the PIIS - without the G. Greece seems to be out of control now.. or if what they do is actually intentional they are screwing with the rest of the countries which are genuinely trying. That would be unfair and if true, they should get the boot.
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The U.S. is a federation of (in theory at least) sovereign states. The EU doesn't have a strong federal government (yet), but California and Alaska are as different as Italy and Finland, both in culture and economic performance. The average household income in Maryland is twice that of Mississippi.
Kalifornia is our greece.
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Kalifornia is our greece.
The Peoples Republic of Illinois is a close second
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I read somewhere that in 2008, when Greece introduced the austerity measures recommended to it by the more affluent EU states, ECB, IMF and all the rest. At that time it was carrying debts of approx 110% of GDP.
After a few years of cutting back on services, forced redundancies and restructuring, it is now 160% of GDP
The Greek people have basically said "Bollocks" to this, kicked out the former government and turned their backs on the debt.
Can't say I blame them.
What happens now to that silly idea of a single currency is anyones guess.
The analogy I think of is; What happens to all the lovely, different coloured plasticine when you mix it together?
It turns to toejam brown.
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Several years ago, I predicted the Euro would be at its peak 8 months in advance of its all time high of around 1.6 exchange. I was able to do this by planning a 2 week family vacation to Spain during that time period. :ahand
It's an awesome power I have. For example I can wipe out any company just by buying some of their stock.
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It's an awesome power I have. For example I can wipe out any company just by buying some of their stock.
:rofl
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I reckon Spain illustrates the fundamental flaws in the eurozone concept best, and they have my full sympathy.
they did almost everything right - they didnt cook the books to join up, fiscal responsibility with about the best balanced budget in the EU, monetary prudence ... and they still got screwed.
the only thing they didnt get right was not getting on top of a runaway boom based, not on innovation and exports, but on a housing bubble and the consequent wage inflation. but they share this with almost every other economy in the EU and the west.
edit: spooky, just checked the bbc website and one of spains biggest banks got delisted this morning ...
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:P
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More than half of adults under 30 in Greece and Spain are unemployed with no prospects of employment.
That outlook carries weight when analyzing the future of both countries to finance bonds or funding. It's a bleak outlook.
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(http://chinasemlimites.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/steve-jobs-resurfaces-in-china.png)
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See Rule #14
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Deutschmark and the Dollar. Who is third? Chinese. Right behind them is the Japanese. Japan has been in a death spiral for 20 years. Whom will be the next?
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China owns about a trillion of US debt, and Japan is right behind them. The public of the USA owns 5 trillion.
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China owns about a trillion of US debt, and Japan is right behind them. The public of the USA owns 5 trillion.
Who has invested in China's manfucturing :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl
Western investment companies :rofl :rofl :rofl :rofl
Pies are the future :)
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HURRAH! :cheers:
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On the good side, now is a great time to vacation in Greece; unless of course you happen to be German.
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I like Kebabs :)
But not as much as pies :)
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The Euro is doomed, the USD as well. It's just as it was designed to be. Nothing last forever and they have (soon) served their purposes.
This video is rather entertaining don't ya think? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wb-MWoZKYmg
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I bet you €20 its not :)
That bloke in the video wore a pink tie :rofl, does he fly 190's :)
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That bloke in the video wore a pink tie :rofl, does he fly 190's :)
Haha, well does he fly AH? :)
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I'm at a loss to understand how propping up the EU/Euro helps Germany---they seem to be carrying it on their backs?
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imagine germany gets bored of all this and leaves the eurozone. they would have to revalue their currency 50-100% higher. they wont sell many BMWs worldwide if the price goes up 50-100% ...
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Stop picking on the Germans RT :old:
Its not their fault they championed the EU for years, now its gone a bit poo they have as much right to complain as Greece has :rofl
I blame Benny Hill and his comedy genius, if it was not for his total disregard for economic policy he would still be on TV today :old:
I also blame the cast of "Are you being served?" for the same partisan manner inregards to the asaid economic woes!
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imagine germany gets bored of all this and leaves the eurozone. they would have to revalue their currency 50-100% higher. they wont sell many BMWs worldwide if the price goes up 50-100% ...
BMW produces about half of its total production outside of Germany. They have production facilities in Mexico, China, Russia, United Kingdom, Austria, United States, and South Africa.
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German capital is brought back to Germany and put in their banks, the investment money does not stay in those countries :rofl :rofl
BMW are poo anyway over priced like the Audi's and Volkswagen's :rofl
I had a 1956 NSU Prima D it was very well made but smelled of sausage :)
SEC tonight its very good be there or be square :)
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Of course the capital is brought back to Germany, but they're making half their cars using labor from outside of Germany, thus the value of the German currency if Germany were to leave the Euro makes little difference to their labor costs; it's not paid in Euros or Deutschmarks anyway.
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And so it continues...
Regards,
Sun
Lloyd's of London preparing for euro collapse
The chief executive of the multi-billion pound Lloyd's of London has publicly admitted that the world's leading insurance market is prepared for a collapse in the single currency and has reduced its exposure "as much as possible" to the crisis-ridden continent. ......
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9292511/Lloyds-of-London-preparing-for-euro-collapse.html
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See Rule #14
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cant speak for the other countries mentioned but BMW's UK production is very limited indeed - small petrol engines (MINI only?) and some metalwork, they only assemble MINIs here. so the prices in the UK would rise by very nearly the revaluation of the currency.
then theres the rest of europe, whose currencies would mostly be devalued relative to the euro and would therefore be looking at more than 50-100% price rises. BMW would have to drop prices and slash margins to almost nothing to survive this, although lower costs for imported raw materials would offset it slightly. this on top of squeezed demand due to other fallout from the eurozone breaking up (no credit, higher unemployment etc etc.)
in this truly global economy events like this have knockon effects which are sometimes hard to foresee. aston martin are 50miles from me, their engines are built in cologne so their prices would go up a fair bit. on the one hand they would probably steal some sales from Merc and Porsche, on the other hand they would lose sales to ferrari ...
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And now, a relatively unknown player in the drama of the Euro:
Once Upon a Time In Athens: The Legend of The Riot Dog
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFd0hztEUWk
Regards,
Sun
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Stop picking on the Germans RT :old:
Its not their fault they championed the EU for years, now its gone a bit poo they have as much right to complain as Greece has :rofl
I blame Benny Hill and his comedy genius, if it was not for his dying 20 years ago he would still be on TV today :old:
I also blame the cast of "Are you being served?" for the same partisan manner inregards to the asaid economic woes!
Fixed :aok
Wherever he is, I bet he's still chasing half nude girls around :D
:cheers: Oz
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See Rule #14
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Benny Hill is dead :cry
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More than half of adults under 30 in Greece and Spain are unemployed with no prospects of employment.
Tragic!
It's has been a similar situation in Sunderland UK for years. Even with Nissan manufacturing cars there.
My wife was born in Sunderland and we are often there visiting family, some of whom have no experience of local employment.
Many times we have had family stay at our house in London while looking for work.
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The next domino...Spain.
Regards,
Sun
Spain Warns Market Access Being Shut
MADRID—Spain's Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro on Tuesday urged euro-zone partners to act faster to help support its enfeebled banks, saying that the government has effectively lost access to capital markets because of steep risk premiums demanded by sovereign bond investors.
In making this dramatic admission, Mr. Montoro joined recent calls by the Spanish government for direct aid from European Union institutions for Spanish banks as the government hopes to avoid a full-blown bailout package.
The matter has gained urgency after Madrid was forced into a €19 billion ($23.75 billion) rescue of lender Bankia SA.
The government's borrowing costs have surged ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303830204577448023082690142.html#articleTabs%3Darticle
“Spain is Greece times ten,” says Robert Halver with Baader Bank
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=5gAufgk0Me4
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cant speak for the other countries mentioned but BMW's UK production is very limited indeed - small petrol engines (MINI only?) and some metalwork, they only assemble MINIs here. so the prices in the UK would rise by very nearly the revaluation of the currency.
<snip>
Not much of what goes into the Mini is made in the UK. About all that is done in the UK is final assembly. The engines are made in Japan and France. The sheet metal is stamped in Germany and Brazil. The auto transmission is made in Japan. The standard transmission is made in Germany. The engine peripherals (A/C compressor, alternator, power steering...) are made all over the world. BASF of Germany supplies the paint.
Just FYI.
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sooo ... the greeks are voting today. simply the 3 options are:
1. stay in the eurozone, abide by the rules (2 parties, 32%)
2. leave the eurozone, default on debts and start again with the drachma (1 party, 9%)
3. stay in the eurozone, ignore the rules, default on debts, keep spending (4 parties, 59%)
(the %s are the share of the vote at the last election in May.)
most of the parties (and I suspect the greek people) favour option 3. the problem is that the have-your-cake-and-eat-it option 3 doesnt actually exist, the choice is 1 or 2.
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I would like your financial analysis at the end of all this RT because I'm going there on holiday in a few weeks and need to know whether I have to pack my Vickers-Webley .455 or not. Merci. :eek:
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See Rule #14
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In the UK they don't give the proletariat the option to even discuss leaving the Euro zone because we're not in the eurozone
fixed! :old:
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Not much of what goes into the Mini is made in the UK. About all that is done in the UK is final assembly. The engines are made in Japan and France. The sheet metal is stamped in Germany and Brazil. The auto transmission is made in Japan. The standard transmission is made in Germany. The engine peripherals (A/C compressor, alternator, power steering...) are made all over the world. BASF of Germany supplies the paint.
Just FYI.
yes! and because of that, here is my wifes Mini with the correct style!
(http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/270929_408441999198025_475374778_n.jpg)
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fixed! :old:
Lol you know what mean capitalist :rofl
The cup holder is made in the North of England by a bloke called Stan who is from Brazil, its the only part if the mini made in UK.
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Kalifornia is our greece.
The Peoples Republic of Illinois is a close second
Not precisely. Greece's problem is that tax dodging is its national past time. California's problem is that for every $1.00 it pays in Federal taxes California only gets $0.79 back. States like California, New York, New Jersey and Texas pay more taxes than they get so that rural states can have their highways, schools, farms and such subsidized. I don't believe the Eurozone works like that. German taxes stay in Germany, French taxes in France and Greek taxes, if they managed to collect them, in Greece.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100012894/fast-cars-and-loose-fiscal-morals-there-are-more-porsches-in-greece-than-taxpayers-declaring-50000-euro-incomes/
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EU money built freeways in Ireland, Greece and all the other non modern countries in Europe :)
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EU money built freeways in Ireland, Greece and all the other non modern countries in Europe :)
Yes, but is Greece, like California, paying more to the EU than the EU is funding in Greece or is it, like Alaska, receiving more from the EU than it pays?
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The main reason for giving these basket countries money is that its cheaper than paying for a war :old:
There are no unstable countries in the EU thats what it was devised for :)
Give people cars and mortgages and they stop waving banners and planting bombs ;)