General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Masherbrum on May 04, 2016, 09:31:00 AM
Title: GMan
Post by: Masherbrum on May 04, 2016, 09:31:00 AM
I hope all is well as I have just read about the wildfires and wish you the best. Stay safe.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: GScholz on May 04, 2016, 10:23:41 AM
Saw it on the news. A terrible tragedy. A whole town consumed by the flames.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: ghi on May 04, 2016, 10:33:16 AM
Entire city was evacuated; Live stream. http://globalnews.ca/news/2677885/mayor-issues-warnings-as-fire-situation-in-fort-mcmurray-intensifies/ Just a temperature map I saved yesterday afternoon, was warmer in Fort MacMurray Alberta than Mexico at 56 degrees north latitude .global warming side effect, messed up weather. (http://i.imgur.com/I4Kzvb7h.jpg)
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Mister Fork on May 04, 2016, 01:33:52 PM
Yeah, it's a bucket of crap we're being forced to swallow up here.
Some recent images: (http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/05/03/160503_wildFire.jpg.CROP.promo-xlarge2.jpg) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChoYLi-VAAAVlM_.jpg:large)
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Masherbrum on May 04, 2016, 02:28:03 PM
Prayers sent. That is wicked.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Gman on May 04, 2016, 03:14:23 PM
Luckily I don't live in Ft Mac any longer, but many friends and some family do. They are all evac'd now, except some that are in L/E and one that is a firefighter at Suncor, whose fire dept (all the mine operations have HUGE fire departments of their own with the most advanced stuff out there) have been stood to for emergency deployments.
This is a huge deal, for Canada and America too. The USA gets 33%, some say up to nearly 45 or even 50% of its imported oil, right from Ft Mcmurrray. Also, the US defense posture has a majority of its oil reserves counted in Ft Mac. Both of the largest mines, Suncor and Syncrude have suspended operations due to, well, no people there to work. That means today and going forward, no oil being produced, which will soon have a trickle, or pour down rather, effect on US oil imports. Canada gives the USA a HUGE, HUGE discount on oil, even with the depressed prices, and before that too, from current market values. So, not only will the import shortfall be bad for the USA, but the replacement oil will be much more expensive. Obviously this will hammer the Canadian economy too, in a time where Alberta has had 100s of thousands of layoffs, bankruptcies, and so on, from an already terrible depression due to the price of oil.
Also, the wind right now has been in an odd direction. If it switches to west ---> east as per normal, the fire chief on the scene has said the remainder of the town not burnt, will burn, without question. We'll know today or tomorrow likely if Ft Mac will be completely destroyed. As it stands, Beacon Hill, Abasand, and other areas that house the tech sector of the town, the beating heart with all the mech shops, stores, warehouses, tooling, infrastructure, and so on...are gone.
Disaster doesn't cover it right now. The home I owned there is gone, as is the entire block, nothing left but the water piping sticking up in many places.
This entire area was made up of 800 to 1.2 mil dollar homes. Adios.
twitter.com/RyanJeffriesWFG
Ft Mac is/was the richest city in N.A. Hands down, and not just IMO. Harley Davidson for example has said it has more bikes per capita by a huge margin than anywhere else in the world there. And so on. Last 2 years it's been hit hard by commodities prices worldwide, but even still Canada gets a huge share of its income in trade from the oil produced there. The effect of losing it won't even be understood for a while, but it's going to be catastrophic at worst, and serious at best for this country.
This is going to have some pretty serious repercussions for all of us, Candians and Americans both.
Thanks for your thoughts about the people here, but this ain't over, and won't be for a long time, we're all going to take a hit from this. Big time.
Nearly 100,000 Canadians have been displaced from this, and it's only going to go worse before it improves. We're taking in some friends and family, we almost sold our 5th wheel and RV this week, turned down 2 offers. Maybe that happened for a reason, as now we can put up another 8 people with both of them, they are 8 hours away but on their way.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: RTR on May 04, 2016, 03:57:25 PM
I am pretty familiar with whats happening in Ft Mac, we have (actually had) helicopter crews there. The whole airspace is basically shut down right now. As of two hours ago we pulled our helicopters south, along with most other fire fighting resources due to rapid advancement of the fire
We were based out of the airport and it's looking like the fire may roll through there. You know it's bad when aerial fire fighting resources are pulled.
So far 88,000 people have been, or are in the process of being evacuated. Thousands of others are in surrounding oil field camps and are safe at the moment, however food and water are going to be a pressing issue.
Our crews are safe as well as all other air crews I know about, but it's going to get worse before it gets better. Looking like a break in the weather tomorrow, but hot and dry by the weekend again.
There isn't going to be much left there in a couple of days. Entire neighborhoods are gone, downtown is burning, the airport is under severe threat. The cost of this fire is going to be in the billions, but with a little luck no lives lost.
Best we can do at the moment is keep everyone safe, sheltered and fed.
RTR
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Gman on May 04, 2016, 04:01:28 PM
I was just wondering about you RTR. Keep safe, and good luck.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Masherbrum on May 04, 2016, 04:08:55 PM
:(
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: RTR on May 04, 2016, 04:22:35 PM
I was just wondering about you RTR. Keep safe, and good luck.
Thanks Gman, no worries there. I don't fly for hire anymore and I rarely twist wrenches either now.
They gave me a new office between the bathroom and furnace and keep me locked up out of the public eye. ;)
My crews are at the pointy end, but we keep a close eye on them and keep them safe.
cheers, RTR
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Chalenge on May 04, 2016, 04:36:45 PM
Arson? Sabotage?
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: RTR on May 04, 2016, 05:10:40 PM
unknown, however we typically get wildfires every year. This year is particularly dry and spring came very early so all it takes is an ignition source. Lightening starts a lot of fires.
RTR
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: morfiend on May 04, 2016, 05:10:55 PM
I am pretty familiar with whats happening in Ft Mac, we have (actually had) helicopter crews there. The whole airspace is basically shut down right now. As of two hours ago we pulled our helicopters south, along with most other fire fighting resources due to rapid advancement of the fire
We were based out of the airport and it's looking like the fire may roll through there. You know it's bad when aerial fire fighting resources are pulled.
So far 88,000 people have been, or are in the process of being evacuated. Thousands of others are in surrounding oil field camps and are safe at the moment, however food and water are going to be a pressing issue.
Our crews are safe as well as all other air crews I know about, but it's going to get worse before it gets better. Looking like a break in the weather tomorrow, but hot and dry by the weekend again.
There isn't going to be much left there in a couple of days. Entire neighborhoods are gone, downtown is burning, the airport is under severe threat. The cost of this fire is going to be in the billions, but with a little luck no lives lost.
Best we can do at the moment is keep everyone safe, sheltered and fed.
RTR
I found this Webcam from airport, you are right the fire is getting close. I see a couple of helicopters on the left side in "3 hours ago image" and missing in fresh frames. Still lots of small planes along the runway, maybe the owners left town already.
Traffic camera main hwy63 https://www.amaroadreports.ca/cameras/ft-mcmurray
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: RTR on May 04, 2016, 06:28:41 PM
From that set of pictures if you scroll down to the second pic you see two red and white AS350 Helicopters on the ramp. Those are ours.
They are based by Marianna lake now south of the city, 100K or so.
Also, the brown building you see behind the white quonset is our base in FT McMurray The building is owned by another company and we lease a section for hangar space. We have 6 Bases in Alberta. Ft. Mac is the only one we don't own outright.
RTR
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Gman on May 04, 2016, 07:30:07 PM
RTR, I have a feeling your company and other helo outfits, fixed wing guys from all over too, are going to play a very important role in the coming days. Like you said, many are in camps, essentially ordered to hold in place right now, cut off from..well everything by the fire. Not sure how much food, water, and supplies they stock at the mines, but I do know that several have airstrips, and all have helo landing pads or zones prepped for that. Depending on what the fire does, resupply could be one of the most vital missions up there.
I don't use Facebook much anymore, but flipping it on today, with the hundreds of Ft Mac people I still have on mine...I've never seen anything like this, ever. Pretty heartbreaking, as if times weren't bad enough, now so many of my friends have lost it all, with little to no hope of being able to get it back up there anytime soon.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: RTR on May 04, 2016, 07:49:50 PM
Yep, we like to have a good busy summer, but there is no good in this.
Busy, but not good.
Lots of people need lots of help.
RTR
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: MiloMorai on May 04, 2016, 09:32:29 PM
Entire city was evacuated; Live stream. http://globalnews.ca/news/2677885/mayor-issues-warnings-as-fire-situation-in-fort-mcmurray-intensifies/ Just a temperature map I saved yesterday afternoon, was warmer in Fort MacMurray Alberta than Mexico at 56 degrees north latitude .global warming side effect, messed up weather. (http://i.imgur.com/I4Kzvb7h.jpg)
Good lord, he's drank the Kool aid. "PLEASE TAX ME MORE!!!"
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Ripsnort on May 04, 2016, 09:45:10 PM
Prayers to our Canuckistan brethern! Good to see your text RTR!
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Chalenge on May 04, 2016, 11:13:03 PM
Ah, now that I see where it started I suspect a meth lab.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Masherbrum on May 05, 2016, 12:11:40 AM
This is simply something that I refuse to joke about. The amount of people to try and move is still unfathomable to me.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Chalenge on May 05, 2016, 01:11:18 AM
I'm not joking. All it takes is one irresponsible, inconsiderate person and boom, forest fire. I'm sure the fire department will investigate and determine the cause in the end, but there it is starting right next to a trailer park. Not conclusive evidence by any means, but one strong possibility to be certain.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Karnak on May 05, 2016, 02:38:41 AM
I'm not joking. All it takes is one irresponsible, inconsiderate person and boom, forest fire. I'm sure the fire department will investigate and determine the cause in the end, but there it is starting right next to a trailer park. Not conclusive evidence by any means, but one strong possibility to be certain.
Those aren't/weren't your American white trash trailer parks.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: puller on May 05, 2016, 08:25:29 AM
Those aren't/weren't your American white trash trailer parks.
:rofl :rofl :rofl
So your trying to tell me there are no meth labs in Canada... :O
Or are you trying to tell me that rich, well to do people in Canada live in trailer parks...
Or are you saying that those trailer parks are for the many people that work in the oil business in that area and don't do dope while they are away from home living in a trailer park...
Title: fire in canada
Post by: bortas1 on May 05, 2016, 10:41:55 AM
:salute any of our ah brothers in that fire in Canada ? i hope not :salute :cheers:
Title: Re: fire in canada
Post by: Ripsnort on May 05, 2016, 10:56:11 AM
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Gman on May 05, 2016, 11:32:53 AM
Just an FYI, but the average price of the trailers in Ft Mac is around 600,000$, at least it was when I left. Our house there was 2300sq ft in a nice area but not the best, and it sold for 1.1 million. The largest trailer park in the world (2 of them) are in Ft Mac. Not much meth scene in Ft Mac, cocaine is another matter. We rented our basement to an RCMP officer when we were there (they don't get paid much, and the cost of living/housing is more than any new officer posted there can afford), and he was on the drug unit. Cocaine is a huge problem there, oxy and fentanyl now too, but meth isn't a big issue..yet. Ft Mac is the richest city in N.A., it isn't even up for debate, people with $ tend towards cocaine over meth, every thing on drug use I've ever read agrees with that. Not that there aren't poor people there, it's just that the trends that have meth take over don't really exist there.
There is ample info out there on potential reasons the fire started, and why it is as bad as it is. In the city homes were in the fire that was burning at 1000 degrees C. Imgainge that, 1800 degrees F. Insane, no wonder everything is just gone like it vaporized. Not a lot of moisture on or in the ground up there this year, and it's unseasonably hot right now, and windy too. There is a slim glimmer of hope, a cold front MAY be coming tomorrow, but with that brings lighting up there, a lot of it, which with the ground the way it is can almost be worse and start more fires.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Mister Fork on May 05, 2016, 12:30:36 PM
...and the first person who squawks "this is because of Global Warming" I'm going to smack them. Wildfires are a natural occurrence in Canada, especially up north and in Alberta.
El Nino has caused a large dryspell this winter in Alberta. Just like it did back in 1999 - heck I was golfing up to December that year. Hence why its so dry up here with unusually warm temperatures, no different than the last one, and the one before that.
I work at Suncor which is a majority owner of Syncrude and we have the largest oil extraction facility up at Fort Mac. As Gman said, with no workers able to drive to the facilities, it's an issue for production for a hefty portion of oil in North America.
Some more images.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChtY9f9UYAAnBXW.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChtYhlQWsAAsqqJ.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChtYBYCVAAAukLt.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChtXPiEUoAAwpPY.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChnvR1FWkAAiT-F.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChnvSAQWUAAzzAP.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChnvSALWkAIARdl.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChsgvakU4AEPqmu.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Chqf2mKVEAY3Rzl.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChtCudPWkAAfVfy.jpg)
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Chalenge on May 05, 2016, 01:30:55 PM
Just an FYI, but the average price of the trailers in Ft Mac is around 600,000$, at least it was when I left.
I have already been reading the drug reports for Alberta and, sorry to say, the quantity of drugs is right in line with the larger sum of cash available. Drugs have always been a part of the human culture and will continue to be a problem until well into the future. I don't believe there is a cure and I know for a fact that drugs are entrenched in every social strata no matter what the wealth level is. Wealth is usually the driving factor and not poverty.
So, if it turns out to be something else then it's something else, but don't pretend the problem doesn't exist just because people in the area are wealthy.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Gman on May 05, 2016, 02:34:22 PM
Maybe you misread my post - in no way did I say there isn't a drug problem in the Mac, the drug problem is greater in Ft Mac than anywhere else in the province, anyone in L/E will confirm that instantly. My pointing out the price of trailers had nothing to do with the drug commentary, not sure why you quoted that at all. My point was that due to their being great wealth there, drug users tend to buy more expensive drugs than meth, ie cocaine. You can read all the drug reports you like, but you don't know more than I do on this subject there, as my wife's work there was often directly related to the war on drugs. In fact, why don't you post some links to where you can prove that meth is the major durb problem in Ft Mac - which is your contention, and that a meth lab, which must be so prevalent there, started the fire (ridiculous). Meth has popped up there, but just based on the drug seizures and charges laid in Ft Mac, cocaine and crack created from cocaine is 75% of the drug problem there, with 20% being pills and Chinese made blue Fentanyl pills. You can look it up.
You're not making any sense, at all.
Quote
sorry to say, the quantity of drugs is right in line with the larger sum of cash available. Drugs have always been a part of the human culture and will continue to be a problem until well into the future.
Where did I disagree with this?
Quote
Not much meth scene in Ft Mac, cocaine is another matter.
Quote
Cocaine is a huge problem there, oxy and fentanyl now too, but meth isn't a big issue..yet. Ft Mac is the richest city in N.A., it isn't even up for debate, people with $ tend towards cocaine over meth,
All I've said, which is 100% accurate, is that meth isn't nearly the problem that coke, crack, and pills are. I will say now also that meth labs, especially in Ft Mac, are pretty few and far between, as again, meth isn't that sought after a recreational drug, unlike others.
He's a little busy right now, but if you want to "challenge" (get it), any of that, once the emergency is over, call Sgt Corey Kyle with the RCMP there, who rented our place from us. He'll tell you exactly what I just did, as that's where most of my information comes from there now that I don't live there anymore. Or, you can google "meth lab Fort Mcmurray" and see how many results you get...there aren't many, if any in the last few years. Google "cocaine Fort Mcmurray" and see what happens.
It feels odd discussing these problems, as dealing with them were such a large part our life for a few years, and now the place where it was all so important is just a smoking hole in the ground...
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Chalenge on May 05, 2016, 02:48:17 PM
Sorry, Gman, I quoted you because it is a common misconception that once money and wealth become readily available that these problems go away. I was justifying my intuition about the beginning point of the fire, since it is downwind of the trailer park any smells from meth manufacture would be carried away and the site not discovered.
My first wife was very active in the drug culture and I used to lecture law enforcement about the inherent behavior patterns of drug addicts. Seems surreal at this point because I am so very far removed from that environment.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Gman on May 05, 2016, 02:53:20 PM
All good, like I said, I agree regarding the relationship of $ to drug use, no place in our country are drugs more prevalent than Ft McMurray, especially blow and rock, it's literally everywhere, and frankly pretty shocking to see how widespread its use is, even with professionals. The RCMP there have had more officers get dismissed for falling into drug use and drug crime than any other city in the country - that alone should say a lot. I knew one cop Kevin Lockart there that was actually DEALING cocaine, stolen from the evidence locker, and he didn't get caught for 2 years, and made millions. Tens of millions they think. Small time dealers there sell several ounces per day (at least they did) by the gram and make 1500 to 2000$ every day. The attraction is great, and the punishment pretty small up here. That's a big part of the problem.
Anyhow, the fire has grown by several times overnight, it's not looking better, it's worse. Depressing.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Masherbrum on May 05, 2016, 03:27:38 PM
See Rule #4
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Chalenge on May 05, 2016, 03:50:40 PM
See Rule #4
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Masherbrum on May 05, 2016, 04:14:14 PM
See Rule #4
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Ack-Ack on May 05, 2016, 04:28:54 PM
Still under investigation, obviously, with the fire still raging. They will know the cause.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: oakranger on May 06, 2016, 03:52:01 PM
Seeing a lot of air view of the fire and smoke. There are a lot of fuel load for the fire that tells me that area had not had fires many decades or over a century. It will burn another good week or two be for they can stop it.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Gman on May 06, 2016, 03:54:35 PM
Pretty accurate Oak, not looking good.
One of thousands.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: RTR on May 06, 2016, 04:07:56 PM
The cause is up for conjecture. One Professor from the UofA voiced an opinion. That's all.
A lot of fires we see up here are actually flared up from still smoldering fires from last year. Many times a fire doesn't go completely out, and as temperatures cool it will slowly smolder through the winter. all it takes is a dry spring and a bit of wind at that point to flare up again. Zama up north west of High Level is a good example, that fire is about 4 years old and just hibernates for the winters.
It's really to early to source a cause, in fact there may never be any determnation one way or the other. Fire is pretty good at destroying evidence.
More importantly, there are 100,000 people now who need help, and that is a way better thing to focus on at this point.
:cry.....long week
RTR
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: oakranger on May 06, 2016, 04:27:27 PM
The cause is up for conjecture. One Professor from the UofA voiced an opinion. That's all.
A lot of fires we see up here are actually flared up from still smoldering fires from last year. Many times a fire doesn't go completely out, and as temperatures cool it will slowly smolder through the winter. all it takes is a dry spring and a bit of wind at that point to flare up again. Zama up north west of High Level is a good example, that fire is about 4 years old and just hibernates for the winters.
It's really to early to source a cause, in fact there may never be any determnation one way or the other. Fire is pretty good at destroying evidence.
More importantly, there are 100,000 people now who need help, and that is a way better thing to focus on at this point.
:cry.....long week
RTR
That is true. Forgot to add moss that makes great insulation for the fire in winter.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Chalenge on May 06, 2016, 04:36:35 PM
I'll give you that. I think PA has an underground fire that has been burning to more than 100 years.
When I consider disasters like this my first thought is to discover who has the most to gain from a disaster like that, and then what method they might use. Finally I move to accidental causes and the most likely method. When dealing with humans I always consider that stupidity will win out over intent, so that's why I ended up where I did.
I also saw the trailer park in Facebook posts and it certainly did not look like the place Gman later mentioned. Given my experience in life it is only natural I would see things the way I do.
My family has lots of firemen from Florida to Northern Alaska, so I have heard the stories of what they find. That only serves to reinforce my way of thinking. They'll figure it out once things settle down.
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Masherbrum on May 07, 2016, 11:01:24 AM
The cause is up for conjecture. One Professor from the UofA voiced an opinion. That's all.
A lot of fires we see up here are actually flared up from still smoldering fires from last year. Many times a fire doesn't go completely out, and as temperatures cool it will slowly smolder through the winter. all it takes is a dry spring and a bit of wind at that point to flare up again. Zama up north west of High Level is a good example, that fire is about 4 years old and just hibernates for the winters.
It's really to early to source a cause, in fact there may never be any determnation one way or the other. Fire is pretty good at destroying evidence.
More importantly, there are 100,000 people now who need help, and that is a way better thing to focus on at this point.
:cry.....long week
RTR
Still praying for all out there.
Edit: Now I am reading that they expect this to double in size within 24 hours. :(
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Masherbrum on May 08, 2016, 10:44:13 AM
Damn, it has now reached Saskatchewan. I saw some pictures of Minneapolis getting some of the smoke remnants and it was surreal.
Canadian News says it's nearing Sask. but not quite there yet!
It's looking more and more like it's going to be several weeks before it's controlled. Mother Nature needs to dump a ton of rain to help or it may be a month or more before it's done.
There is also another big burn just starting in Northern Ontario,looks like Pipz's back yard is on fire too!
:salute
PS: Fort Mac is on lock down,everyone is ordered out,seems some looting was going on..... As if the fire wasnt bad enough.... A real black eye for most Canuks!
Title: Re: GMan
Post by: Meatwad on May 08, 2016, 07:24:45 PM