General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: ghi on December 17, 2016, 08:03:07 AM
Title: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: ghi on December 17, 2016, 08:03:07 AM
Interesting ice storm traffic this morning , most of the east coast is movig below 45mph , we had over 200 crashes here in Indianapolis since last evening, the roads were shinning like glass. Time park it and have a beer. :rock (http://i.imgur.com/UkKoG6P.jpg)
Opps, actually the number of accidents was updated to 500 ! :pray
By the time I got home last night, I was driving 15-20 mph due to the ice
I avoided my regular route,I-70/57 today, the freezing line was right along I-70. I see the map , looks like you are getting the 2ND round of ice, I-70 looks red from St.Louis to Effingham. I switched to F-3 mode and dodged the ice storm, jumped on I-65/40, but I'm getting tornado alert in western Tennessee. Hmm, not a boring trip :rock The weather map looks crazy, they run out of colors : http://www.weather.gov
Tanker merging fast on icy I-95 Baltimore early this morning. https://youtu.be/CV-7XtusdBE
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Meatwad on December 17, 2016, 05:14:56 PM
This morning on I-64 after all the ice was gone but super foggy, all shoulders on every interstate ramp were all parked tractor trailers waiting it out. At the eastbound scale around marker 21 or so there was one trailer with the back half almost smashed flat, and the scale house was hit also with the everything on the scale side of the building ripped off and hanging.
And now its froze again. 70 miles south of here in Paducah, it was 72 degrees today. It was 34 degrees here all day
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: saggs on December 17, 2016, 08:10:57 PM
I love all this "Polar Vortex" malarkey.
The jet stream pushes all the arctic air down south, which means that up here in the actual arctic it gets much warmer then normal. A couple days ago we got temps above zero (got up to 10°F) for the first time in several weeks.
:neener:
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Brooke on December 18, 2016, 01:09:47 PM
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Hajo on December 18, 2016, 02:01:02 PM
It's getting ridiculous. Now we are naming winter storms. Now minor thunderstorms are "events". Sheeeesh
Hello...........in the northern parts of the country we've always had snow, ice, and freezing rain and Blizzards. Nothing new here. I guess NBC which owns the
Weather Channel wishes to make every weather change an event for viewership. Polar Vortex.......... lets' add more drama. Who cares it's winter, we expect this to happen.
Always has in my lifetime.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Shamus on December 18, 2016, 02:04:53 PM
And thats a long lifetime.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: MiloMorai on December 18, 2016, 02:51:13 PM
It's getting ridiculous. Now we are naming winter storms. Now minor thunderstorms are "events". Sheeeesh
Hello...........in the northern parts of the country we've always had snow, ice, and freezing rain and Blizzards. Nothing new here. I guess NBC which owns the
Weather Channel wishes to make every weather change an event for viewership. Polar Vortex.......... lets' add more drama. Who cares it's winter, we expect this to happen.
Always has in my lifetime.
It is done for all the millennials and snowflakes as they need some fancy word. In the old says it was called a 'cold snap'.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Shuffler on December 18, 2016, 08:20:10 PM
I avoided my regular route,I-70/57 today, the freezing line was right along I-70. I see the map , looks like you are getting the 2ND round of ice, I-70 looks red from St.Louis to Effingham. I switched to F-3 mode and dodged the ice storm, jumped on I-65/40, but I'm getting tornado alert in western Tennessee. Hmm, not a boring trip :rock The weather map looks crazy, they run out of colors : http://www.weather.gov
Tanker merging fast on icy I-95 Baltimore early this morning. https://youtu.be/CV-7XtusdBE
Happy to see you made it home safe my friends!
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: FLOOB on December 18, 2016, 08:51:07 PM
The jet stream pushes all the arctic air down south, which means that up here in the actual arctic it gets much warmer then normal. A couple days ago we got temps above zero (got up to 10°F) for the first time in several weeks.
:neener:
WTF are you doing in the arctic actual??
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: saggs on December 18, 2016, 09:42:21 PM
partly cloudy means more sun than cloud partly sunny means more cloud than sun
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: FBKampfer on December 19, 2016, 09:13:19 AM
Pacific Northwest is getting shat on. Worst winter I've seen in Portland in nearly 10 years.
Sidewalks and some roadways are covered in layers of ice, snow, more ice, and this horid slush that freezes at night and partially thaws during the day.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Brooke on December 19, 2016, 03:15:00 PM
By Michigan standards, the Pacific Northwest doesn't have winter. (I live near Seattle now.)
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Masherbrum on December 19, 2016, 04:04:03 PM
Pacific Northwest is getting shat on. Worst winter I've seen in Portland in nearly 10 years.
Sidewalks and some roadways are covered in layers of ice, snow, more ice, and this horid slush that freezes at night and partially thaws during the day.
:rofl Having driven out there plenty of times? I would gladly trade. 15 degrees here as I type. At least it thaws out there.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zoney on December 19, 2016, 04:25:00 PM
Only got to 66 in Phoenix today. I had to wear a jacket riding my motorcycle. The HORROR!
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: OldNitro on December 19, 2016, 04:48:14 PM
By Michigan standards, the Pacific Northwest doesn't have winter. (I live near Seattle now.)
I agree. I moved from New England, (CT) to Western Washington, Hood Canal area... Single digits is common back east, HARD AND COLD for months on end. I like it here better, no poisonous snakes either!
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: MiloMorai on December 19, 2016, 08:33:35 PM
Not to far away tho (http://www.cprseattle.com/images/content/snakemap.gif)
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: bozon on December 19, 2016, 11:41:40 PM
If people are driving nearly 45 mph in an ice storm where the roads are shining like glass, I'm not surprised there have been 500+ accidents.
No no no, they are going 25 mph, but into a 70 mph head wind.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: NatCigg on December 20, 2016, 04:28:51 AM
Im not sure which winter is worse. In Michigan, it is cold. Most winter come in and park overhead. the begining and ending date varies slightly but generally winter moves in and hangs around a while. Deep snow and frozen ponds. Good for snowmobiles and pond hockey. And the cold is not bad, our balls form a kind of leather and womens breasts grow fur, we adapt as northern types to 6 months of tundra.
In the northwest every day is roll of the dice. Most of the days are crap but spring tend to show up twice a month. It rains most of the time and can change to ice any night anywhere. Salt is not used as religiously and black ice with curves trees and mountains do not mix. Also the lack of salt or seemingly any real good effort to combat frozen precipitation results in a lot of ice build up when the freezing level drops below altitude. Using a volcanic cinder in place of or mixed with salt is some tough guys joke in the roads department. At times the Ice and cinder pileup like a seven layer cake, good thing studs are legal! and mandatory! Thankfully a melt is not far away, unfortunately, the ice layer cake made during the storm take time to melt like pykrete, and giant ice pot holes form as the modified ice slowly melts. In summary, The PNW has persistent storm cycles with varying and dangerous conditions, without stability it is not one way or the other, its just 3-4 months of dark wet sheet.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: BuckShot on December 20, 2016, 07:00:07 AM
-5 F in The State of Maine right now. My log house was creaking and popping last night.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: OldNitro on December 20, 2016, 08:16:16 AM
Im not sure which winter is worse. In Michigan, it is cold. Most winter come in and park overhead. the begining and ending date varies slightly but generally winter moves in and hangs around a while. Deep snow and frozen ponds. Good for snowmobiles and pond hockey. And the cold is not bad, our balls form a kind of leather and womens breasts grow fur, we adapt as northern types to 6 months of tundra.
In the northwest every day is roll of the dice. Most of the days are crap but spring tend to show up twice a month. It rains most of the time and can change to ice any night anywhere. Salt is not used as religiously and black ice with curves trees and mountains do not mix. Also the lack of salt or seemingly any real good effort to combat frozen precipitation results in a lot of ice build up when the freezing level drops below altitude. Using a volcanic cinder in place of or mixed with salt is some tough guys joke in the roads department. At times the Ice and cinder pileup like a seven layer cake, good thing studs are legal! and mandatory! Thankfully a melt is not far away, unfortunately, the ice layer cake made during the storm take time to melt like pykrete, and giant ice pot holes form as the modified ice slowly melts. In summary, The PNW has persistent storm cycles with varying and dangerous conditions, without stability it is not one way or the other, its just 3-4 months of dark wet sheet.
A "real" winter is preferably, temperatures around 273 K is the worst. Snow and freezing temperatures is no big deal.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: branch37 on December 20, 2016, 09:09:35 AM
Winter in N central Texas sucks. 60-70 degrees and sunny today. 16 degrees and snow yesterday. Hell on allergies.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: FLOOB on December 20, 2016, 01:37:25 PM
I've frozen my bellybutton off on both sides of the cascades. Actually east of the cascades in the yakima desert was more comfortable because it stayed frozen. West of the cascades, on the coast it would thaw during the day and freeze at night. So your hole would turn to mud, and the snow would turn to slush during the day and then freeze at night. Your clothes would get soaked during the day and freeze at night. My first introduction and handshake with hypothermia was west of the cascades observing arty at a Ft. Lewis impact area. I'll never forget the weird ominous echoing sound of artillery caused by a cold overcast air inversion. Hate it hate it hate.
I much prefered spending january and febuary in yakima instead of the coast.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: pipz on December 20, 2016, 06:29:05 PM
A "real" winter is preferably, temperatures around 273 K is the worst. Snow and freezing temperatures is no big deal.
273Kelvin = right at 32 degrees Fahrenheit
Did that for myself :neener:
Anyway...polar vortex be damned it was 3 degrees Fahrenheit here Sunday morning... Some are saying they saw 0...it was 3 on my porch thermometer... I've never seen it that cold in all my years... It was 5 Monday morning... I couldn't take a deep breath it hurt so bad... The cold stabbing my lungs...thankfully no water leaks and today was in the 40s calling for possible severe weather Christmas Day...NWS is saying monitor the forecast... Last time I saw a Christmas with temps in the 60s we had an ice storm about 2 days later and was out of electricity for 13 days....
I love Oklahoma weather :aok
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: OldNitro on December 21, 2016, 09:37:10 AM
I've frozen my bellybutton off on both sides of the cascades. Actually east of the cascades in the yakima desert was more comfortable because it stayed frozen. West of the cascades, on the coast it would thaw during the day and freeze at night. So your hole would turn to mud, and the snow would turn to slush during the day and then freeze at night. Your clothes would get soaked during the day and freeze at night. My first introduction and handshake with hypothermia was west of the cascades observing arty at a Ft. Lewis impact area. I'll never forget the weird ominous echoing sound of artillery caused by a cold overcast air inversion. Hate it hate it hate.
I much prefered spending january and febuary in yakima instead of the coast.
Yeah, that freezing inversion layer situation happens occasionally, but not very often. Fog so thick we end up going 25mph on the highway, and it freezes to everything on contact. The sun never penetrates the fog, so nothing melts during the day. Last time, it lasted a couple weeks straight. We also get the odd 1ft of snow now and then, and the occasional ice storm, or the hurricane force autumn wind storms. But most years winters are very mild, last 2 years we didn't even have any snow at home. Just scrape the frost from the car windows and go!
Man, way better than New England, where you need a heavy steel ice chopper, along with your snow shovel, just to get out of your driveway! And the snow plow leaves a 5ft high wall of snow in your way. EVERY time! :mad:
Today, shortest day of the year, was a normal morning, 27deg light frost, crystal blue sky, and a red dawn. Frost will thaw by 2pm and pretend to be spring until the sun goes down. Until the clouds come back, and it will be 35deg and raining, the usual condition in western WA.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zimme83 on December 21, 2016, 09:57:45 AM
Inversions are not uncommon in cold weather, there can be a 10-15 degree (Kelvin) difference between the top and the bottom of a <200m hill. Living in a valley sux on the winter...
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Shuffler on December 21, 2016, 11:48:49 AM
Snow in the Sahara...... dang global warming... LOL
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zimme83 on December 21, 2016, 01:46:55 PM
And as the informed and smart people we are we dont drag this into a debate about global warming since a few days of extreme weather at a local scale doesn't prove or disprove anything...
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: OldNitro on December 21, 2016, 02:17:28 PM
And as the informed and smart people we are we dont drag this into a debate about global warming since a few days of extreme weather at a local scale doesn't prove or disprove anything...
The Russians did it, :rofl
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Shuffler on December 21, 2016, 03:24:37 PM
And as the informed and smart people we are we dont drag this into a debate about global warming since a few days of extreme weather at a local scale doesn't prove or disprove anything...
Exactly as science tells us that the earth has done this all by itself for longer than we have been here.
Fun to see things like this happen though. We get a rare snow here every 10 years or so. The green grass pokes up through it.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Skuzzy on December 21, 2016, 03:31:02 PM
We (in Dallas/Fort Worth) are long over due for a harsh winter. Really could use some extended cold weather to get the insect population under control again.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Shuffler on December 21, 2016, 03:37:21 PM
We (in Dallas/Fort Worth) are long over due for a harsh winter. Really could use some extended cold weather to get the insect population under control again.
Down here, east of Houston, we had a 30 degree night a couple of nights back. That is enough cold weather for me. :)
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zimme83 on December 21, 2016, 03:48:32 PM
Exactly as science tells us that the earth has done this all by itself for longer than we have been here.
Yes and no..
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Shuffler on December 21, 2016, 04:44:10 PM
Yes it has but no you don't belive science?
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zimme83 on December 21, 2016, 05:07:11 PM
I would not use the word believe about science, its not a matter of personal opinions. If you dont "believe" what science tells you then you are simply wrong.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Brooke on December 21, 2016, 11:37:19 PM
Actually, even science historically has had huge amounts of personal opinion, belief, and group think mixed in. Eventually, people figure things out, but the world goes through periods where accepted science is far wrong by later standards: germ theory, evolution, plate tectonics, planetary orbits, quantum mechanics, to name just a few, and even very modern ones (such as the idea that eating fat increases your cholesterol, which is true for rabbits but, as it turns out, not true for humans).
Science does seem to progress eventually to greater truths, though.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: NatCigg on December 22, 2016, 06:47:29 AM
Good point Brooke. The term science is over used as a modern day religion. Praise science. Unfortunately the popular assumption is based on belief in scientists. This is a severe problem when people claim knowledge when in fact it is a guess. A best guess. Praise science. While the scientists opinion can be intriguing, when the public or politicians grab it...praise science, nobody can stop the human wave....must garner more science. Praise science. :old:
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: PR3D4TOR on December 22, 2016, 09:45:32 AM
I would not use the word believe about science, its not a matter of personal opinions. If you dont "believe" what science tells you then you are simply wrong.
The half-life of knowledge or half-life of facts is the amount of time that has to elapse before half of the knowledge or facts in a particular area is superseded or shown to be untrue. These coined terms belong to the field of quantitative analysis of science known as scientometrics.
These ideas of half-life applied to different fields differ from the concept of half-life in physics in that there is no guarantee that the knowledge or facts in areas of study are declining exponentially. It is unclear that there is any way to establish what constitutes "knowledge" in a particular area, as opposed to mere opinion or theory.
Because scientific knowledge is growing by a factor of ten every 50 years, this means that half of what scientists may have known about a particular subject will be wrong or obsolete in 45 years.
An engineering degree went from having a half life of 35 years in ca. 1930 to about 10 years in 1960.
Donald Hebb estimated the half-life of psychology to be five years.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: OldNitro on December 22, 2016, 09:49:47 AM
Actually, even science historically has had huge amounts of personal opinion, belief, and group think mixed in. Eventually, people figure things out, but the world goes through periods where accepted science is far wrong by later standards: germ theory, evolution, plate tectonics, planetary orbits, quantum mechanics, to name just a few, and even very modern ones (such as the idea that eating fat increases your cholesterol, which is true for rabbits but, as it turns out, not true for humans).
Science does seem to progress eventually to greater truths, though.
I agree! And it is also worth noting, that many scientists, and their "scientific facts and opinions", can be purchased for $$$$! The corporations do it all the time!
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zimme83 on December 22, 2016, 11:13:22 AM
Actually, even science historically has had huge amounts of personal opinion, belief, and group think mixed in. Eventually, people figure things out, but the world goes through periods where accepted science is far wrong by later standards: germ theory, evolution, plate tectonics, planetary orbits, quantum mechanics, to name just a few, and even very modern ones (such as the idea that eating fat increases your cholesterol, which is true for rabbits but, as it turns out, not true for humans).
Science does seem to progress eventually to greater truths, though.
True, and there is unfortunately hard to avoid it since there are still humans involved. But still, even if the road to knowledge isnt straight, it still leads towards greater truths as you said. We have no other way than science to find out how things work, and it would be dangerous if we tried to replace it, science is still better than having people guess based on their personal opinions.
We need to be open minded enough to admit that we dont know everything, and that new data can disprove what we know today. But we still cannot refuse to believe science just because we doesnt like what it tells us. Gallileo for ex was put under house arrest for life because people didnt like his claims that the Earth rotates around the sun.. If you want to dispute scientific findings, the way to do it is by presenting objective facts that disprove the earlier findings, not by claiming that the scientist "have an agenda" or similar arguments (unless of course there is evidence to support such claims).
When it comes to global warming i only know that when NASA, ESA and their counterparts in a lot of other countries says that Global warming caused by human activity is real then i cannot dispute it unless i can back it up with some really good evidence, and since i cannot do that i just have to assume that they know what they are talking about. I also happens to study at a university that does a lot of research on the atmosphere and climate and I have still not met a professor or anyone with any kind of authority on the subject that doesnt think global warming is real. And since they are some really smart guys it would be both ignorant and stupid of me to claim that they are wrong just because i want them to...
As far as we know today everything points towards a) Global warming is happening and b) its mainly caused by human activity. There are of course a lot we doesn't know but until the present findings are disproved by new scientific data we simply have to assume that what we know today is the truth.
And no - no one likes global warming and almost no one will make money on it, it will have a huge negative impact on our way of living and on our society. But that is no reason to deny it. We can hope for the best but we still have to plan for the worst..
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: NatCigg on December 22, 2016, 11:57:16 AM
Good science has truth. It is the extrapolation on the data that is subjective. Under the guise of science we see opinion spread as truth. Using truth in place of theory is dangerous.
Global climate models are a great tool but they are not truth, they are wrong. Same as the big bang is wrong. In climate science there is truth in data, truth that humans are polluting and altering climate related factors. Also, the economy surrounding global warming science has to be huge. I would like to see how many use it to put food on the table.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zoney on December 22, 2016, 01:19:00 PM
Our (human) activity is minimal compared to the heat generated by the sun, and the natural heat from the Earths core under tremendous pressure.
Out of all the damaging human activities, i believe in Jesse Ventura's HAARP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Frequency_Active_Auroral_Research_Program) geoengineering / mind control conspiracy :rock; awesome navy seal, governor, and wrestler dweeb( sure hurt his head doing last one). The antennas are transmitting strong radio signals capable to warm up, ionize and increase density of the upper layers of atmosphere ahead of incoming Russian icbms causing them to slow down before the re-entry and fall in our heads here in Canada. :( http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x22hoz1_conspiracy-theory-with-jesse-ventura-haarp_news .
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Brooke on December 22, 2016, 07:23:03 PM
We have no other way than science to find out how things work
As a scientist myself (well, I mostly do business today, but my background is science), I completely agree with you that the scientific method is the way to figure things out.
Quote
When it comes to global warming i only know that when NASA, ESA and their counterparts in a lot of other countries says that Global warming caused by human activity is real then i cannot dispute it unless i can back it up with some really good evidence, and since i cannot do that i just have to assume that they know what they are talking about.
It doesn't sound unreasonable that more CO2 in the air would increase temperatures. However, it also isn't unreasonable to very skeptical of climate models. Much of my scientific background is physics, scientific modelling, and financial modelling. Models that contain a multitude of adjustable parameters can be made to fit historical data very well yet be horrible at predicting future results. I am highly skeptical of complicated models of complicated systems.
The other things that raise my level of skepticism: -- I remember the dire warnings about acid rain. -- When I see a group-think dynamic with suppression of dissent, or science that transmutes nearly into a religious crusade, I become suspicious. Global warming has that in spades. -- Few consider that the earth went through periods of much greater atmospheric CO2 than we have now or are extrapolated to have, yet life flourished during those times. -- Few consider that dire consequences of warming are model predictions, yet periodic ice ages are much-more-solidly known to have occurred many times throughout history. An ice age would be drastically more ruinous to human civilization than warming. Might it be that some warming can delay, offset, or eliminate the next ice age, in which case it would actually be a savior of mankind? It might be as plausible as the dire predictions of bad aspects of warming.
Quote
We can hope for the best but we still have to plan for the worst..
You can't often operate by planning for the worst. If you planned for the worst in all things, you would not drive a car, have children, have pets, meet friends, drink beer, eat pizza, swim, play a sport, go out in the sun, etc. There is a potentially gigantic opportunity cost to operating as if the worst is going to happen.
Put another way, you've got $3 trillion to spend. Which of these is best for mankind? 1. Spend it on reducing CO2 emissions faster than would otherwise happen through unforced adoption of non-CO2-producing power sources. 2. Spend it on a way to preclude an ice age (as ice ages have wiped out lots of life in the past). 3. Spend it on asteroid defense for the planet (as asteroids have wiped out life a few times). 4. Let free markets spend it (and get advancement of various things, some you might consider not useful, but some definitely will be in healthcare, computers, food production, entertainment, science, increased standard of living for the undeveloped world, etc.). 5. Give it to your pal Brooke, who will put it to excellent use for the betterment of mankind. 6. Spend it on human colonization of space (to protect our species and spread sentient life). 7. The large number of other possibilities.
I like #5 most, with #6 a close second, and #4 third.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zoney on December 23, 2016, 10:46:01 AM
Opps, what a Costco size screenshot i uploaded :( ; sorry , first time i see it on my desktop, it looked smaller on my phone; :bolt:
Out of all the damaging human activities, i believe in Jesse Ventura's HAARP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Frequency_Active_Auroral_Research_Program) geoengineering / mind control conspiracy :rock; awesome navy seal, governor, and wrestler dweeb( sure hurt his head doing last one). The antennas are transmitting strong radio signals capable to warm up, ionize and increase density of the upper layers of atmosphere ahead of incoming Russian icbms causing them to slow down before the re-entry and fall in our heads here in Canada. :( http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x22hoz1_conspiracy-theory-with-jesse-ventura-haarp_news .
This is why I like you GHI. Reality and the laws of physics have no possible chance of thwarting your paranoia. <S>
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Wiley on December 23, 2016, 10:59:55 AM
I have no trouble believing atmospheric CO2 is influenced by human activity.
What I am skeptical of is the belief we can reverse it.
Wiley.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zimme83 on December 23, 2016, 11:24:07 AM
As a scientist myself (well, I mostly do business today, but my background is science), I completely agree with you that the scientific method is the way to figure things out.
It doesn't sound unreasonable that more CO2 in the air would increase temperatures. However, it also isn't unreasonable to very skeptical of climate models. Much of my scientific background is physics, scientific modelling, and financial modelling. Models that contain a multitude of adjustable parameters can be made to fit historical data very well yet be horrible at predicting future results. I am highly skeptical of complicated models of complicated systems.
The other things that raise my level of skepticism: -- I remember the dire warnings about acid rain. -- When I see a group-think dynamic with suppression of dissent, or science that transmutes nearly into a religious crusade, I become suspicious. Global warming has that in spades. -- Few consider that the earth went through periods of much greater atmospheric CO2 than we have now or are extrapolated to have, yet life flourished during those times. -- Few consider that dire consequences of warming are model predictions, yet periodic ice ages are much-more-solidly known to have occurred many times throughout history. An ice age would be drastically more ruinous to human civilization than warming. Might it be that some warming can delay, offset, or eliminate the next ice age, in which case it would actually be a savior of mankind? It might be as plausible as the dire predictions of bad aspects of warming.
You can't often operate by planning for the worst. If you planned for the worst in all things, you would not drive a car, have children, have pets, meet friends, drink beer, eat pizza, swim, play a sport, go out in the sun, etc. There is a potentially gigantic opportunity cost to operating as if the worst is going to happen.
Put another way, you've got $3 trillion to spend. Which of these is best for mankind? 1. Spend it on reducing CO2 emissions faster than would otherwise happen through unforced adoption of non-CO2-producing power sources. 2. Spend it on a way to preclude an ice age (as ice ages have wiped out lots of life in the past). 3. Spend it on asteroid defense for the planet (as asteroids have wiped out life a few times). 4. Let free markets spend it (and get advancement of various things, some you might consider not useful, but some definitely will be in healthcare, computers, food production, entertainment, science, increased standard of living for the undeveloped world, etc.). 5. Give it to your pal Brooke, who will put it to excellent use for the betterment of mankind. 6. Spend it on human colonization of space (to protect our species and spread sentient life). 7. The large number of other possibilities.
I like #5 most, with #6 a close second, and #4 third.
#5 is ok if i get let a share, im not a greedy man so a trillion would be ok, #6 is also always a good option.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: NatCigg on December 23, 2016, 11:27:09 AM
History shows life uses and converts co2 to stone. :old: this long after we are gone? :bolt:
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Shuffler on December 23, 2016, 12:38:12 PM
I have no trouble believing atmospheric CO2 is influenced by human activity.
What I am skeptical of is the belief we can reverse it.
Wiley.
One good volcano poping off will do more CO2 than most anything else.
I find it funny that we pressure so many limitations on our industries here in the US and then buy from china. We all know how china is about pollution. It affects everyone globally. Shouldn't we limit by law what can purchased from countries that do not have the same anti pollution requirements?
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zimme83 on December 23, 2016, 04:50:17 PM
China is for ex the leading installer of solar Power and have signed the Paris agreement. They are definitely concerned about the environment - simply because the smog has turned the cities to gas chambers. The pollution levels in china is just insane and even they just have to do something about it.(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/14/air-pollution-in-china-is-killing-4000-people-every-day-a-new-study-finds). They have a lot of work to do but they have became aware of the issues.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: NatCigg on December 23, 2016, 05:07:30 PM
China is for ex the leading installer of solar Power and have signed the Paris agreement. They are definitely concerned about the environment - simply because the smog has turned the cities to gas chambers. The pollution levels in china is just insane and even they just have to do something about it.(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/14/air-pollution-in-china-is-killing-4000-people-every-day-a-new-study-finds). They have a lot of work to do but they have became aware of the issues.
China has also allocated areas of the country as toxic waste sites for the production of green energy products of solar and wind. Possibly more strict environmental protections would help....but we know what that means, cost. Besides the pollution, china will probably set the standard for climate action. The attempts at stopping the Gobi desert, high birth rates, and food production are innovative. It is a good thing to have them innovating instead of just copying,i think. :headscratch:
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zimme83 on December 23, 2016, 05:41:08 PM
They have messed up a lot and they will pay the price for it, one way or another..
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: saggs on December 25, 2016, 08:27:35 PM
See Rule #14
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Zimme83 on December 25, 2016, 08:47:22 PM
Changing climate isn't an issue in itself, the problems occur when it goes too fast. Both humans and nature need time to adapt. If sea level rises as much as in the worst case scenarios it will be a big deal for a lot of our major cities along the coast lines. Poor countries will have problem to cope with increasing temperatures and the risk is that it sparks conflicts and increase migrant streams.
And there are other issues as well, what would for ex happen if everyone used as much oil as the average American? global population is going to peak at somewhere around 11 billion and if all of them is going to live a first World Life then we need 6-10 times more oil than today...
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Brooke on December 26, 2016, 02:03:05 PM
Average estimates seem to be about 1 meter sea rise per 100 years. That's pretty slow. Also, many high-to-low tides are larger than that.
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: zack1234 on December 26, 2016, 06:34:00 PM
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: Shamus on December 26, 2016, 09:59:15 PM
I guess I dont have a problem with sea level rise as long as you do away with the federal flood insurance program as well as fema. Let the coastal states deal with it. Why should the rest of the country subsidize shore line living?
Title: Re: Polar vortex,ice storm,....doom
Post by: zack1234 on December 27, 2016, 03:40:55 AM