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General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: pembquist on May 24, 2018, 09:57:33 PM

Title: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: pembquist on May 24, 2018, 09:57:33 PM
https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/HWY18MH010-prelim.pdf (https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/HWY18MH010-prelim.pdf)

This is the part that looks a little "oopsy":

"According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR
observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph.
As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian
as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path.
At 1.3 seconds before impact, the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver
was needed to mitigate a collision (see figure 2).
2 According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are
not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce the potential for erratic vehicle
behavior. The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. The system is not designed to
alert the operator."
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Mickey1992 on May 25, 2018, 08:07:43 AM
"The system is not designed to alert the operator"

This to me is the most damning part of the article.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: eagl on May 25, 2018, 11:56:28 AM
I"m not sure how that's any different than putting a brick on the accelerator, aiming the car down any random busy street, and hopping out to let the car careen down the street on its own.  Whoever signed off on this is going to be lucky if all they face is a civil suit, since it seems like there may be a criminal case for endangerment or any number of other charges that rhyme with willful, negligence, dangerous, and deadly.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Shuffler on May 25, 2018, 11:57:30 AM
"The system is not designed to alert the operator"

This to me is the most damning part of the article.

It does not have to. The operator is supposed to be watching the road with both hands on the wheel.


I will never own a so called self driving car. I do not trust them.

The driver of this car is at fault in this accident.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Puma44 on May 25, 2018, 12:22:32 PM
"The system is not designed to alert the operator"

This to me is the most damning part of the article.

Likewise.  That’s a major, irresponsible flaw on the part of Uber.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Devil 505 on May 25, 2018, 02:05:57 PM
It does not have to. The operator is supposed to be watching the road with both hands on the wheel.


I will never own a so called self driving car. I do not trust them.

The driver of this car is at fault in this accident.

I agree with you.

But this raises the the big question - What the hell is the point of a self driving car when a human operator is still required to be present and alert?
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Meatwad on May 25, 2018, 02:13:59 PM
Only true self driving cars I know of are one ones that Google is experimenting with. All these other cars that claim self driving but require the person in the driver seat to keep both hands on the wheel in case of emergency procedures is nothing more then catering to the laziness of people that can afford those cars and willing to shell out extra $$$ to have one. I will never trust a self driving anything, including the people that have severe lack of common sense to ket the car drive while they play on facebook/sleep/etc
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Delirium on May 25, 2018, 03:30:14 PM
I will never own a so called self driving car. I do not trust them.

I'm sure you would have been yelling, "Get a horse!" over 100 years. Inability to adapt is a clear sign of getting older.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Wiley on May 25, 2018, 04:01:49 PM
From the article, this is FAR more damning of the Uber system and their capability to develop a system.

Quote
According to Uber, the developmental self-driving system relies on an attentive operator to intervene if the  system  fails  to perform  appropriately  during  testing.  In  addition,  the  operator  is  responsible  for  monitoring diagnostic messages that appear on an interface in the center stack of the vehicle dash and tagging events of interest for subsequent review.

"Here.  Watch this screen for anything interesting, and also drive the vehicle."

A freaking 4 year old could see the problem with that statement.

I'm sure you would have been yelling, "Get a horse!" over 100 years. Inability to adapt is a clear sign of getting older.

I don't think that's a fair comparison.  Based on the above paragraph, I don't think a healthy mistrust of the people designing these systems is completely misplaced.  I'm sure the tech will get there eventually, and likely within this generation.  However, I'm not going to call someone a Luddite for not being thrilled at the prospect of the "Oops, the design team never thought of that" phase of product development.

Now they've learned the lesson that the trial vehicle maybe shouldn't have only one person in it.  The jaywalker's unfortunately not going to get to benefit from that lesson.

Frankly everything I've seen about the Uber system looks pretty much like it is garbage.  Autonomous vehicles are not a product that should have a cut rate cheaply developed version, IMO.

Wiley.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Delirium on May 25, 2018, 04:09:25 PM
It is an absolutely fair comparison! Cars had numerous deaths and many cities/states considered banning them. The populace said the same thing about elevators, they are not safe and are detrimental to society.

I do agree there is a huge push from several design teams and ultimately few will win the race to create the right system.

It will happen, accept change and adapt or get old listening to AM radio.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Wiley on May 25, 2018, 04:18:46 PM
It is an absolutely fair comparison! Before cars were invented the populace said the same thing about elevators, they are not safe and are detrimental to society.

I do agree there is a huge push from several design teams and ultimately few will win the race to create the right system.

It will happen, accept change and adapt or get old listening to AM radio.

There's a few orders of magnitude in complexity between something simple like an elevator and an autonomous vehicle.  It's a monumentally complex system, and at the end of the day you're abdicating responsibility for your safety doing the most dangerous thing the average person does every day to a software design team in an age where "It compiled.  It's ready for beta testing." is the norm.

Statistically, they're going to be safer than most human drivers in a short time.  That should be a horrifying thought, but that's the world we live in.

I still don't think it's unreasonable not to trust them, at least in the early phases.

Wiley.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Delirium on May 25, 2018, 04:33:39 PM
Time will prove me correct, I have no doubt.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Wiley on May 25, 2018, 04:42:06 PM
Time will prove me correct, I have no doubt.

Oh, it's coming.  I'm just saying not trusting it is not as unreasonable as you're making it out to be.

Wiley.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Delirium on May 25, 2018, 05:28:36 PM
I am looking at the appearance of automated vehicles much in thr same way people look at the deaths that cars caused when they shared the road with horses. In 25 years all of these accidents will be a footnote, as heartless as that sounds.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Oldman731 on May 25, 2018, 10:23:09 PM
Inability to adapt is a clear sign of getting older.


That's what they said about people who couldn't disco dance.

Not to mention those who wouldn't wear leisure suits.

- oldman
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: zack1234 on May 26, 2018, 06:42:48 AM
This topic comes up time and the again it’s ridiculous

Is this technology an attempt to stop accidents or to create cars that drive themselves

If it’s a driverless car it’s the stupid idea ever created for a car

If you want to sit in a driverless car your a moron, get a taxi or. Chauffeur.

And the most ridiculous thing about car topics which you lot will laugh at is in 30 years time the majority of people will not be able to own a car because they will be earning $3 a hour.

😂🛵🇬🇧👍😀
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Meatwad on May 26, 2018, 01:28:40 PM
Everybody will be driving a horse and buggy and listening to AM radio  :old:
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Skuzzy on May 27, 2018, 06:29:50 AM
I have no interests in an autonomous car.  I like to drive.

I do find it entertaining to watch two factions go at it.

You want electric cars or autonomous cars?  Can't have both, today anyways.  According to Bosch, who makes most of the hardware for autonomous cars, it takes about 1500W@12V for all the hardware needed to do it right.  That is 125A. It does not take a rocket scientist to see how that impacts an electric car.  Even a hybrid would struggle to keep up with it.

Slap all those goodies on a hydrocarbon powered car and the gas mileage suffers while increasing exhaust emissions.  Added weight, and electrical loads and so on.

It is a hoot to watch people argue about it though.  Although I do find concern in seeing so many people welcoming change, without truly fleecing out all the issues first.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Shuffler on May 27, 2018, 09:27:50 PM
I agree with you.

But this raises the the big question - What the hell is the point of a self driving car when a human operator is still required to be present and alert?

There lies the stinker..... it is actually "driver assist".   :aok
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: artik on May 30, 2018, 03:03:22 AM
From what it looks like.

It looks like the car was on early stage of development.

I assume that the car was designed not to break is high rate of false alarms by the system that could cause more accidents by emergency braking on highway. It should be proven 100% safe.

Maybe it was also the reason the alarm wasn't given to the operator since basic instinct could be break hard...

Bottom line it was impossible to see the pedestrian / bicycle on time using human eyes only, only lidar detected it.

If a human was driving the car it was just an accident because pedestrian wasn't doing what she had to ...


All guys who tell that you don't trust robot. Do you trust a clueless inexperienced  teen who drives 2 tonnes car on the same road? Do you trust drunk, reckless or overconfident driver? Do you trust tired driver? I don't trust my early self I was driving horribly when stated.

Bottom line is that the sad reality is that humans are horrible drivers.  And you can't upload driving skills to a teenager who gets behind the wheel, but you can do it for a computer.


Regarding power consumption. Don't forget it is testing models. I don't think anyone have really done full optimisation. All these machines are GPU heavy. But they all are getting faster and consume less power per tflops.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Skuzzy on May 30, 2018, 06:07:16 AM
A robot is only as good as the software that drives it.  Do you trust some pimple-faced-pepsi-sucking nerd, who has never lived in the real world, to make perfect software?

There are other ways to improve drivers than to just replace them with another potential error looking for a place to happen.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: artik on May 30, 2018, 06:28:42 AM
A robot is only as good as the software that drives it.

I don't want to disappoint you but you are already being driven by software every day -  every modern aircraft is flown by software (auto-landing, autopilot, fly by wire, glass cockpit) and all the computers helped improving safety.

Even today many high end safety car features are software driven (the car had emergency breaking system in modern high end cars)

You put your life in hands of software engineers that designed software for MRI, Ultrasound imaging and so much more. Even today in many fields diagnosis is frequently can be given by machine much more accurately than by an average physician (which is by the way very-very sad)

It is sometimes frightening but we really live in future today and the world is changing.

Do you trust some pimple-faced-pepsi-sucking nerd, who has never lived in the real world, to make perfect software?

(a) Be kind to nerds... lots of stuff you use happily every day was created by nerds.  :old:

(b) We don't need the SW to be perfect - it just must be significantly better than an average experienced driver - and to be honest looking on the state of the roads I start to think it isn't that hard  :rolleyes:

(c) Yes I do want to have safety features so I can take control if something goes wrong (similarly - like a pilot as an ability to override an autopilot) and that is probably what should really be at least during first decade or two once the auto-cars will hit the roads.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: MiloMorai on May 30, 2018, 08:36:37 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q5Nur642BU

Quote
There are other ways to improve drivers than to just replace them with another potential error looking for a place to happen.

Doesn't look like any improvements in over 100 years.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Skuzzy on May 30, 2018, 09:47:50 AM
Hate to disappoint you artik, but there are still pilots flying those planes.  The stick/yoke is still there and the pilot can take control and fly it at any time.  They are already talking about building cars without any analog inputs available. Huge difference.

I have experienced the simple smart cruise control system which merrily slams on the brakes if someone crosses in front of you changing lanes.  Damn near got rear ended.


Milo, I do not do utube so have no idea what that link is about, but the comment you made suggests we have not done everything we can to make it better.

How about really good training?  Here we give drivers licenses to people like they were candy.  No real tests, no real education about driving.  It is assumed to be a right everyone has.


So what happens when autonomous and driven vehicles are mixed on the roads?  Think about that one, long and hard.  People are unpredictable and computers have been, and continue to be confused by how people drive.

You want to trust your life to a piece of hardware which can fail at any time, or generate an error, or a programmer who has not thought of every possible condition a ground based vehicle can operate in, then go for it.  I'll stick with the wheel.  I trust me more than I do a computer programmed by someone whose fallibility is an unknown.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Wiley on May 30, 2018, 10:33:10 AM
Quote
I don't want to disappoint you but you are already being driven by software every day -  every modern aircraft is flown by software (auto-landing, autopilot, fly by wire, glass cockpit) and all the computers helped improving safety.

Very true.  Now, look at the difference in level of complexity in terms of traffic and stuff around you moving unpredictably in close proximity between flying an airplane, and driving for 20 minutes on a heavily used city street during rush hour.  There's a *teeny* bit more going on around the car.

As to driver "assists" I'm not a fan of many of them.  Backup cameras/view aids are awesome.  Adjusting how much your steering controls move the wheels during an emergency just makes absolutely no sense to me.  When conditions are bad, you want to know exactly what moving your wheel a certain amount does, not have the car adjusting your input to some unknown.

Being a good driver can save you from a ton of other peoples' stupidity if you're aware and not overdriving conditions.  The one thing you're in control of on the road is your vehicle, and taking that away means trusting the software and trusting the implementation of the system.

The sad thing is though, you're right Artik.  It's not going to take long for them to be statistically safer than most drivers.  It's likely to be quite a while before it's statistically as safe as a good driver though.

If your autonomous vehicle needs you to be ready to take over in an emergency (which generally happens in under a second) what's the material difference between that and having control of the vehicle?  Also, how many people are going to be able to maintain that concentration when they're not actually controlling the vehicle?  My money's on "very few".

Wiley.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Puma44 on May 30, 2018, 11:25:59 AM
I don't want to disappoint you but you are already being driven by software every day -  every modern aircraft is flown by software (auto-landing, autopilot, fly by wire, glass cockpit) and all the computers helped improving safety.

I don’t want to disappoint you, but “every modern aircraft” is not flown by software.  Not every modern aircraft has auto land capability.  Not every modern aircraft is fly by wire.  Not every modern aircfart has a glass cockpit.  Some modern aircraft have some of theses options.  Some have none. All of these items are intended to reduce pilot work load, not take over the pilot’s job.  When it comes down to it, a well trained pilot will go “hands on” and make an aircraft fly as intended. All the “modern” technology is great but, it can and will malfunction and cause a world of hurt in short order. 
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: MiloMorai on May 30, 2018, 12:28:06 PM
Skuz, the video is of Market St San Francisco a few days before the big quake in 1906.

Agree, driver licences are handed out like candy these days. Whe I took my test in the mid '60s I cliped a curb on a right turn. Thought I would fail but didn't (the tester said because the rest of test was good he would forget that mistake). The test took place in rush hour traffic.

Be sure Wiley. Almost all driving assists imho make drivers lazy resulting in SA becoming less and less with each new assist.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Shuffler on May 30, 2018, 01:23:31 PM
I don't want to disappoint you but you are already being driven by software every day -  every modern aircraft is flown by software (auto-landing, autopilot, fly by wire, glass cockpit) and all the computers helped improving safety.

Even today many high end safety car features are software driven (the car had emergency breaking system in modern high end cars)

You put your life in hands of software engineers that designed software for MRI, Ultrasound imaging and so much more. Even today in many fields diagnosis is frequently can be given by machine much more accurately than by an average physician (which is by the way very-very sad)

It is sometimes frightening but we really live in future today and the world is changing.

(a) Be kind to nerds... lots of stuff you use happily every day was created by nerds.  :old:

(b) We don't need the SW to be perfect - it just must be significantly better than an average experienced driver - and to be honest looking on the state of the roads I start to think it isn't that hard  :rolleyes:

(c) Yes I do want to have safety features so I can take control if something goes wrong (similarly - like a pilot as an ability to override an autopilot) and that is probably what should really be at least during first decade or two once the auto-cars will hit the roads.
Another so called improvement just hit a parked police vehicle. Even Tesla says its cars are not designed to avoid accidents  they are driver assist only.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Delirium on May 30, 2018, 05:04:42 PM
Cars also weren't designed originally to break 30 mph, has that changed over the past 100 years? Trust me, this is the first step. I am eagerly looking forward to the day driver-less cars are the normal. I would much sooner trust a pack of CPU driven cars than what we have on the roads today, particularly now that we have so many vehicles on the road.

What I don't understand is this community is filled with history minded individuals but yet few on these forums can see past 10 years in regards to development.

Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Skuzzy on May 31, 2018, 06:13:15 AM
Cars also weren't designed originally to break 30 mph, has that changed over the past 100 years? <snip>

Certainly it has!  Advancements in every area have allowed cars to go faster and faster and be safer than they were originally were.  Much like the airplane industry.  Better materials, better designs and so on.  There is not a piece on an automobile today which has not been improved since their inception.  There is not a subsystem, on a car today, which has been been substantially improved since its inception.

Your comment about cars and the speed contradicts your lamenting how people cannot see the future.

Personally, I enjoy driving.  The Cobra club here hits the back roads of Texas almost every weekend, during the summer.  It is a blast.

If you think there are too many cars on the road, then advocate for better mass transit systems.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Shuffler on May 31, 2018, 06:23:26 AM
Mass transit brings many problems of it's own. Busses stopping in traffic lanes or taking up lane that could handle more traffic. Trains and trams in cities blocking roads, traffic flow and making areas dangerous to traffic and pedestrians.
Title: Re: Preliminary NTSB report on Uber accident
Post by: Skuzzy on May 31, 2018, 09:07:15 AM
There are problems with every solution.

Ever had a GPS steer you wrong?  Think about what happens if the autonomous car gets lost.
What about roads with no markings?  Or ones that are covered with snow?
Water filled pot holes?  They cannot detect them yet.
Hydroplaning?  The resolution before detection, right now, is +-6 feet.  Broadcom is coming with new chips to cut that in half.  Still, ever driven down a freeway under construction with concrete barriers only a foot away from you?

There is a reason all these autonomous tests are being done in perfect weather conditions and avoiding construction areas.

One day, maybe they will solve all these problems.  I am in no hurry for it.  I enjoy driving.