General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: CptTrips on May 09, 2022, 02:12:41 PM
Title: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: CptTrips on May 09, 2022, 02:12:41 PM
Bulls are dug in at S&P500 4k like the Reds at Stalingrad. They REALLY don't want to give up that support line.
If the SP breaks below 4k and\or VIX breaks above 35, I think that represents and entirely new phase. At that point I think we are at risk of an air pocket drop at any time.
S&P might pause a moment at 3800-3600, but I think the next solid foot hold would be S&P 3k.
My own strategy is I'm getting interested at S&P 3000, I'm starting to buy for sure at 2000.
Will it get that low? <Shrug> I think there is a good chance, but don't take what I say seriously. I'm just another muppet watching the circus scratching my head trying to make sense of it all.
I think however we are in a new paradigm compared to the last 12 years. Before, support lines were solid, resistance lines were soft. Now I think support lines are thin ice and the market will be banging it's head on the I-beams of resistance lines.
I get the feeling Powell is an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks, to collect a bill that's over-due. (A butchered movie quote. ;))
[Edit] Of course, all that might change if the Fed pivots and starts printing and QE with abandon. But then we'll just get hyper-inflation. Not much of a improvement. And it might not even work. They printed like crazy in 2008 and 2001 and didn't seem to slow down the drop until the market finished it's tantrum.
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Eagler on May 09, 2022, 03:48:36 PM
Let's see how serious they are with their QT efforts..
They sure were all over QE as they were able to rain money like an overpaid pro athlete for years ... and no one complained...not much QT yet if any.
I like these whiners now who are saying the fed shouldn't be touching the interest rates...you didn't hear a peep when they were criminally lowering them during record markets...
Eagler
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: CptTrips on May 09, 2022, 05:48:38 PM
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: CptTrips on May 10, 2022, 09:16:59 AM
If Wed CPI numbers are promising or at least not cataclysmic, you might get a brief suckers rally. If you are feeling over-expose to risk, that might be an opportunity to lighten up a little but don't get too enthusiastic. It will be temporary.
After that, QT starts June 1st. Next Fed meeting in June another 0.5% rise (possibly a .75% regardless of what Powell said). It's hard to see anything but more pain from those two combined, given the violent reaction to the first 0.5% increase.
But prediction is hard. Especially about the future. :D
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Eagler on May 10, 2022, 09:37:30 AM
Not if reality is followed in any legitimate fashion..
The future should be a recession worse than most
Only real question - if reality is included- would be how bad and if a depression will follow
But if they lose their nerve and lower rates and/or stop any attempt to QT, the bubbles will restart and the can kicked again..
I predict this course of action prior to 2024 ... if nothing even crazier pops up lol
Eagler
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: CptTrips on May 10, 2022, 10:40:05 AM
Not if reality is followed in any legitimate fashion..
There will almost certainly be a recession by next year. Pretty certain not a depression.
It will be by design. The Fed is going to intentionally create a moderate recession to cool inflation without having to raise rates too high and blow the national debt up.
Creating a recession will cool inflation due to demand destruction (instead of further rate hikes) by putting some people out of work and putting a little economic fear into the populace. That will ease tight labor market as some people will be out of a job and looking for work, and demand destruction as people will feel economically vulnerable and cut back spending, thus easing inventory pressure.
That will ease inflation without having to raise rates too high. Relying only on rate hikes alone could not cool inflation enough without making the carrying cost of the national debt unsustainable. Recession is another tool in the Fed's kit. Inflation will be tamed by a combination of a certain amount of rate hikes and an engineered recession together.
It worked for Paul Volker.
[Edit] Regardless, rate hikes and/or recession all spell doom for the stock market at it's current valuations.
Just to be clear, many feel that the Fed will pivot and start printing at the first sign of a serious market crash and/or recession. I am NOT in that camp. I believe the market crash (i.e. destroying the wealth effect will also help cool inflation) and recession are intentional Fed strategies. They are not bugs; they are features. So despite past behavior, I do not expect the Fed to reactively start printing.
I expect them to only consider printing if the engineered recession risks turning into a depression. Though they may decide to pause rate hikes and QT at some point to let things stabilize or if they reach inflation ~3%.
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Eagler on May 10, 2022, 11:15:09 AM
Yes they have the money out of thin air printing tool they will fall back on again before the recession becomes a full blown depression..
I think we are in a recession now for many..
From those on inflation killing fixed incomes to new moms that can barely locate the formula their babies require
It's nothing more than a shell game most don't bother with as they don't have the extra to invest but they see it now in their 401k's taking a dump
Eagler
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Eagler on May 10, 2022, 12:08:02 PM
Congrats!!!
Record gasoline prices! (With no end in sight)
Way to set records!
Eagler
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Chris79 on May 10, 2022, 03:31:16 PM
I’m amazed it took this long seeing how utterly mismanaged this country had been for so long. Greed i suppose, people trying to milk the last dollar out of the market.
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: MiloMorai on May 10, 2022, 03:54:59 PM
Why on earth would it be at all beneficial for the Administration to purposely have high gas prices? Even if the Administration had control over it, which they do not.
Dunno why you must turn everything political. My god you are moronic.
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Arlo on May 10, 2022, 04:09:54 PM
Why on earth would it be at all beneficial for the Administration to purposely have high gas prices? Even if the Administration had control over it, which they do not.
Dunno why you must turn everything political. My god you are moronic.
Easy now. I'd say blindly dedicated.
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Eagler on May 10, 2022, 04:13:22 PM
Where did I say it was potato head in my post?
Where did I blame anyone?
Guilty conscience?
Thanks for the personal attacks :aok
Eagler
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Chris79 on May 10, 2022, 04:14:47 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/DRnZJby/CDC3038-D-9-A2-F-4-BC4-8854-77-B08-C9799-F1.jpg) (https://imgbb.com/) dog outline images free (https://imgbb.com/)
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Shuffler on May 10, 2022, 04:25:23 PM
Why on earth would it be at all beneficial for the Administration to purposely have high gas prices? Even if the Administration had control over it, which they do not.
Dunno why you must turn everything political. My god you are moronic.
We are capable of producing all the fuel we need here in the US. We were doing so until this administration choked things off. We were even exporting fuel. The fuel situation was already getting bad and Russia invading Ukraine just sped the issue up.
Maybe try doing a little reading. Some refer to it as educating yourself. That or you can just fall back on calling folks names and looking silly.
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: CptTrips on May 10, 2022, 04:28:38 PM
Well, there went my thread. ;)
This has been devolving since end of WWII.
Every administration, and every Congress, of both parties have their finger prints on this murder weapon.
Many think it starts with Nixon (R) getting off the gold standard. I actually don't agree with that. I'm not big on the gold standard, but that is another long drawn out discussion why.
IMHO, the true gangrenous rot in our economic system started with Greenspan. It's only gotten worse as everyone since then has stood in line to get their chance to screw the pooch.
YMMV.
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Arlo on May 10, 2022, 04:29:48 PM
We are capable of producing all the fuel we need here in the US. We were doing so until this administration choked things off. We were even exporting fuel. The fuel situation was already getting bad and Russia invading Ukraine just sped the issue up.
Maybe try doing a little reading. Some refer to it as educating yourself. That or you can just fall back on calling folks names and looking silly.
Ahem.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60936468
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Chris79 on May 10, 2022, 04:37:21 PM
Oh wow, lil-lord crap pants released 22 days of US oil consumption from our strategic reserve.
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Forget our security.....
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: Arlo on May 10, 2022, 04:43:42 PM
Never mind that this disproved the 'choking off' claim. Just ignore that and continue the hissy. :)
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: MiloMorai on May 10, 2022, 04:52:49 PM
Former President Donald Trump accused President Biden Thursday of draining America’s strategic petroleum reserve, claiming he built it up to “100% full” despite seeing a reduction in the reserve under his administration as well.
“So after 50 years of being virtually empty, I built up our oil reserves during my administration, and low energy prices, to 100% full,” Trump said in a statement released by his Save America PAC.
“It’s called the Strategic National Reserves, and it hasn’t been full for many decades. In fact, it’s been mostly empty. It’s supposed to only be used for large-scale emergency or conflict,” Trump continued.
“Now I see where Biden has just announced he’s going to take what we so carefully and magically built, and [sic] what will be a futile attempt to reduce oil and gasoline prices. They will soon bring it down to empty again. It just never ends!”
The largest amount of reserve supply ever recorded is more than 726.6 million barrels in early 2009. Tannen Maury/EPA When Trump took office in January 2017, there were approximately 695 million barrels of oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That amount shrank to around 664.6 million in January 2018, approximately 649 million at the same point in 2019 and just under 635 million in January 2020.
During 2020, the amount in the reserve climbed as high as 656 million barrels at its peak, but dropped back down to 638 million by January 2021.
The largest amount of reserve supply ever recorded is more than 726.6 million barrels in early 2009. As the reserve has a reported storage capacity of 714 million barrels, the closest the Trump administration got to building up the reserve to “100%” was the week he took office.
Gas prices remain high, with the nationwide average price per gallon sitting at $4.23 as of Thursday. Etienne Laurent/EPA Still, the Biden administration has tapped the reserve multiple times since taking office, massively dropping the supply. As of March 25, 568,322 million barrels were reported, with no increases in supply under the current administration.
The Biden administration announced the release of 50 million barrels from the reserve in November, followed by another 30 million barrels at the beginning of this month in coordination with the release of another 30 million barrels by 30 countries around the world.
SEE ALSO
Biden expected to announce plan to tap oil reserves amid soaring prices The president will announce another tapping of the reserves on Thursday, ordering the daily release of 1 million barrels from the reserve on average for the next six months. The announcement comes one day after crude oil traded at almost $105 per barrel — up from $60 at this time last year.
The White House claimed the Department of Energy will use revenue from the upcoming release to help restock the SPR.
The release comes as gas prices remain stubbornly high, with the nationwide average price of a gallon of gas sitting at $4.23 as of Thursday, according to AAA. However, there’s little indication the release would bring down gas prices an appreciable amount, since Americans already consume 20 million barrels of oil per day.
Title: Re: Da Bulls...Da Bears...
Post by: DmonSlyr on May 10, 2022, 06:24:14 PM
I think its really the Shanghai lockdown that is screwing over a lot of the market. Factor in other crazy supply issues, printing trillions, and now raising Interest rates to "combat inflation" due to their handouts and printing. It almost seems contrived. Americans want to spend money. There are so many jobs open. The issue is that the MMs and powers that be need a reset so they can "buy low and sell high". I've seen many small cap/micro/OTC stocks get absolutely crushed for a whole year by the short market after the GME fiasco leveled out. Until the supply situation levels out, it's going to be tough to see prices in the super markets level out while the stocks go back up. Still many companies have posted records this Q and their stocks have continued to drop 20%+. .