General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: CptTrips on July 14, 2022, 01:02:10 PM
Title: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 14, 2022, 01:02:10 PM
We will have to have a recession and housing and stock crash all together to get a handle on this inflation. I think we'll get all 3 by the time the rates hit 3.2 - 3.5%. I don't think they'll need to go above that and the second order effects will do the rest. Our current unemployment rate could double and still not be THAT bad. Even so, I'm not sure we'll ever see 2% inflation again. If we can reign it in to 3-4% that will be awesome. I'm using an assumption of 4% long-term in my retirement calculations.
But I'm glad I'm not European. Not just because of the poor dental care and women with underarm hair. Economically, I think they are fluffied.
France might weather the coming decade reasonably well, but the other countries are hosed.
Germany is running into a demographic dead-end. Unless they opened the gates to massive immigration, they losing a massive percentage of the productive workforce aging out. And they screwed up their energy structure so bad they now have to chose between economic collapse or essentially becoming a Russian client state.
Europe doesn't have enough energy resources to maintain their current level of civilization and acquiring energy from Russia and the Middle East is going to become significantly harder over the coming decade.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on July 14, 2022, 01:42:01 PM
Someone said Canadians don’t have fixed rat mortgages and they are totally wrong, I always had a fixed rate and a 25 year mortgage with 5 year terms. I was lucky enough to pay it off in just 13 years,as we’re allowed to pay up to 10% on the anniversary date and again at the end of each term. The last term the bank said at this rate you only need a 3 year term before it’s paid off.
Would be nice if someone actually did some research before they post nonsense.
Although it varies region to region where I live house prices fell a scant 4% but I’m in a high demand market. What you don’t see is the multiple offers and sales going for way over the asking price. The house next door sold 3 months ago and went for 120k over asking,not likely to see those sorts of things in the near future,which is changing to a buyers market for the first time in 4 or 5 years.
Been looking for a place on the lake and I’m hoping to be in the catbird seat soon.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 14, 2022, 01:51:58 PM
Someone said Canadians don’t have fixed rat mortgages and they are totally wrong, I always had a fixed rate and a 25 year mortgage with 5 year terms. Been looking for a place on the lake and I’m hoping to be in the catbird seat soon.
Real estate has the longest lag and slowest velocity. It will be the last domino to fall. After stock crash and job losses and recession. I would expect at least a 30% drop in asking prices in markets like Austin and DFW over the next year or two.
Don't know how inflated things were in your area.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 14, 2022, 01:55:45 PM
Higher interest rates are needed to put value back in money which was eroded with super low basically free money for decades..
So sorry if it means you can't afford something as you have to finance it but it needs to go bsck up to at least 10% and stay there but...
It will not get back to that imo and it will quickly be raised with or without more new qe depending on how bad society becomes in this process
Perfect storm for some really bad times ahead
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 14, 2022, 02:04:02 PM
Been looking for a place on the lake and I’m hoping to be in the catbird seat soon.
I wouldn't expect lake property to to drop as much as other housing. Lake property is historically an excellent investment if you can afford it.
It is a structurally limited supply. There are only so many lakes and they only have so much frontage. They don't make new lakes very often (like maybe once a generation). It's a mostly static supply. It's like the real estate version of gold.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 14, 2022, 02:14:45 PM
Oooofff. It's going to be amazing to see how many PHD dissertations the Crypto debacle is going to spawn over the next decade. For economists and psychologists. :D
It's like someone coming up with the idea to sell buckets of air for $70,000 each. Of course they need to keep the buckets to reuse. You hand them your $70,000 and they pour the air into your hands.
Higher interest rates are needed to put value back in money which was eroded with super low basically free money for decades..
So sorry if it means you can't afford something as you have to finance it but it needs to go bsck up to at least 10% and stay there but...
It will not get back to that imo and it will quickly be raised with or without more new qe depending on how bad society becomes in this process
Perfect storm for some really bad times ahead
Eagler
Low interest rates combat the fact that there is a huge divergence in hourly compensation (salary) to productivity and how much things actually cost. If interest rates were not low, nobody could afford to buy things that cost exponentially more than they did back when interest rates didn't matter because you made enough money to not need a loan.
If wages were congruent with corporate profits throughout the years, I don't think we'd have these sorts of issues. Trickle down economics that stops trickling at the very top. But hey, as long as Zuck, Bezos, and Musk take home $500b a year, all is well, right?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 14, 2022, 02:54:30 PM
Lower prices would come with higher interest rates...eventually
Lower prices are coming via recession and or depression depending on how they handle it
It prices don't drop tremendously it is all for nothing
People need to live within their means
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 14, 2022, 03:14:48 PM
Low interest rates combat the fact that there is a huge divergence in hourly compensation (salary) to productivity and how much things actually cost. If interest rates were not low, nobody could afford to buy things that cost exponentially more than they did back when interest rates didn't matter because you made enough money to not need a loan.
The problem with excessively, artificially low interest rates is that it promotes bubbles and mal-investment. It's how you get excesses like crypto and SPACs and meme stocks, zombie companies and reckless overly inflated asset values that inevitably collapse. When you hide the true cost of debt, people in the market tend to behave badly.
I would prefer seeing the rates pegged to some variation of the Taylor Rule. Allow the Fed a little leeway plus or minus to steer events but not just unconstrained changes on a whim. Some variation of the Taylor Rule would at least underpin the rates to some rational relationship to GDP and economic conditions.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: icepac on July 14, 2022, 04:26:15 PM
You have to choose where "your money" shrinks whether it's cash in your hand or the value your investments.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Lazerr on July 14, 2022, 04:52:27 PM
The problem with excessively, artificially low interest rates is that it promotes bubbles and mal-investment. It's how you get excesses like crypto and SPACs and meme stocks, zombie companies and reckless overly inflated asset values that inevitably collapse. When you hide the true cost of debt, people in the market tend to behave badly.
I would prefer seeing the rates pegged to some variation of the Taylor Rule. Allow the Fed a little leeway plus or minus to steer events but not just unconstrained changes on a whim. Some variation of the Taylor Rule would at least underpin the rates to some rational relationship to GDP and economic conditions.
What came first, low wages and uber high prices or perpetually low interest rates?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 15, 2022, 08:07:30 AM
Lower prices + higher interest rates = just getting bent over, over time... right?
Cheap credit is a major issue
Those of us that don't need it want higher interest rates .. they need to raise them as high as possible now so that they can lower them in the future...nothing will change.
It is one thing that is saving the dollar as it is now equal to the euro
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 15, 2022, 10:53:09 AM
What came first, low wages and uber high prices or perpetually low interest rates?
I’m not exactly sure of your thesis.
Lower wages (inflation adjusted) for working folks started in the 80’s with decline of unions and the rise of globalization.
Truly deranged low interest rate manipulation started with Greenspan in the early 90’s.
There seems to be an implied thesis in your statement that we can simply choose to hold interest rates at near zero forever without any negative repercussions. That is not true. How long can you hold your breath. A minute? Forever? There is a natural level of interest rate that balances out increases in GPD, population growth, economic activity, availability of resources, etc. You can deviate for that natural equilibrium for a limited period of time to nudge the economy in the short term, but you can’t simply peg it at a number out of balance forever without the negative effects compounding until an explosion occurs.
Another implied thesis seems to be you think artificially low interest rates benefit working folks. It doesn't really. It’s like going on a spending binge with a new credit card. It’s great fun for a little while, but eventually that bill arrives in the mail and the fun is over. Artificially inflated asset prices like stocks and real estate don’t really help regular folks. They really help the 10% of the population that own 90% of those assets, and that ain’t regular folks.
Young families who are just starting out have been totally priced out of the housing market over the last couple of years and housing prices have spiraled out of control in many areas. It's turning whole generations into a population of permanent renters. Apts aren't a great way to raise a family.
Young workers starting out saving for retirement and beginning to invest over the next are about to get seriously screwed. After the market crashes and take a decade to get back to last Nov price levels will be carving out a big chunk of time out of their preparation for their retirement. If they are young enough they will have some time to recover, but they will have lost ground and been put behind the curve. And this is the same generation that probably had their careers derailed and delayed by the GFC.
Regular folks who are retired and living on fixed income get terribly screwed by rising inflation. And worse, cheap money distorted the financial markets such that retirees, pension funds have been slowly squeezed for yield such that they have been forced out of safer investments like bonds into higher risk assets like equities just to be able to generate their needed return. These investors should not be anywhere near that level of risk, but TINA (There is No Alternative) and excessively low interest rates made safer investment sources unsustainable. This is going to cause MASSIVE societal problems when the music stops and these investors are caught still holding the bag.
Both the 2001 and 2008 crashes were the result of too loose money policy for too many years. Those crashes are not in the interest of regular folks. The next one is probably going to be worse than those two. I think you’ll find the third economic collapse do to loose money derangement to be very painful for regular folks.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on July 15, 2022, 10:56:13 AM
We will have to have a recession and housing and stock crash all together to get a handle on this inflation. I think we'll get all 3 by the time the rates hit 3.2 - 3.5%. I don't think they'll need to go above that and the second order effects will do the rest. Our current unemployment rate could double and still not be THAT bad. Even so, I'm not sure we'll ever see 2% inflation again. If we can reign it in to 3-4% that will be awesome. I'm using an assumption of 4% long-term in my retirement calculations.
But I'm glad I'm not European. Not just because of the poor dental care and women with underarm hair. Economically, I think they are fluffied.
France might weather the coming decade reasonably well, but the other countries are hosed.
Germany is running into a demographic dead-end. Unless they opened the gates to massive immigration, they losing a massive percentage of the productive workforce aging out. And they screwed up their energy structure so bad they now have to chose between economic collapse or essentially becoming a Russian client state.
Europe doesn't have enough energy resources to maintain their current level of civilization and acquiring energy from Russia and the Middle East is going to become significantly harder over the coming decade.
Just read this.
Are you a simpleton who lives in a shoe box?
Unemployment could double and would not be a problem statement shows the stupidity of your mindset.
STOP watching YouTube and reading Wikidiot you are embarrassing yourself.
“When money dies” by Adam Ferguson ISBN 1910400300 a book made from paper
If I bought said book for you would you read it or wipe your butt with it?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 15, 2022, 11:03:54 AM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on July 15, 2022, 11:53:17 AM
I like to see spot run,run spot run.
As for lake property yes I don’t expect it to go down in price, just to hold and not so many offers and surely not way above asking. I live near the Great Lakes,about a half hour from Erie or Huron and we’ve been looking for a place near the shores of Lake Huron.
There would be no mortgage so I couldn’t careless about interest rates,others may not be in that position so I’m hoping there will be more availability and fewer offers.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Chalenge on July 15, 2022, 11:58:48 AM
"You will own nothing and be happy." - Ida Auken.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: save on July 15, 2022, 12:18:49 PM
I don't know what Zack reads, but I know what he drinks: (https://www.thetraveltart.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Sheep-Shagger-602x1024.jpg?ezimgfmt=ng:webp/ngcb1)
You can expect western ( and China) workforce will have to change retirement age to about 70 years in the future.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 15, 2022, 12:20:21 PM
Low interest rates combat the fact that there is a huge divergence in hourly compensation (salary) to productivity and how much things actually cost. If interest rates were not low, nobody could afford to buy things that cost exponentially more than they did back when interest rates didn't matter because you made enough money to not need a loan.
If wages were congruent with corporate profits throughout the years, I don't think we'd have these sorts of issues. Trickle down economics that stops trickling at the very top. But hey, as long as Zuck, Bezos, and Musk take home $500b a year, all is well, right?
I think you make some great points here and I'll expand on that. The main "issue" with businesses not paying the correct labor is due to the fact that they pay based on a market rate, rather than what their business actually achieves in gross profit. For example, you will hire a parts tech at the counter for $19 an hour regardless of how much your business makes in gross profit. It's just what the industry rate is. If they have more experience maybe bump them to 23. Unfortunately, that is just the way it is. Sorta how in some businesses you cannot even get hired if you don't have a degree regardless if you have clout and 3 patents to your name with 30 years in the industry, (my dad). Some businesses are stupid. Businesses also pay a payroll tax on every single employees labor. A payroll of 50k will cost the business another 5k more in payroll taxes a month, essentially about 60k a year. Payroll taxes also steal wages from workers. You arent making "80k" a year. You are making 65k a year after taxes. The company is paying you with money you aren't even getting. It's clear to me that businesses have not come to the idea that If they are doing better than their competitors, they should offer higher wages to people to get "the best worker" as you want the best coming to you to work for the better wage. It's getting there, but everyone understands eventually how hard it is to actually make payroll when you open a small business. A small store cannot afford to pay someone $30 an hour with too many employees at that rate. You have to take quality into consideration. For example, if you have a question in a store about where a product is and there is no one there, vs someone coming up to you asking if you need help. Not all businesses are smart businesses either. I've never been able to figure out why sales people get all of the credit with commission checks and no one else who processes all of their crap for them gets any of it.
Increasing prices is not always the best solution. Economy of scale and diminishing returns comes into play where you start increasing prices too high. Unfortunately, many businesses are forced to increase prices when hit with higher taxes because they need to keep their net profit inline along with paying the higher cost of their vendors increased prices. Once those expenses become so high they eventually cannot keep up with the market and have to close down because they cannot sell their products at too high of prices. This is when the recession hits and now no-one can afford anything. When they increase monetary printing, it is created without any productivity and therfore decreases the value of it. Thats my way of looking at it. It gets spent artificially and causes major supply shortage issues. Those supply issues are what forces companies to increase prices due to not having enough supply to maintain the rampant demand. That's when you go into a supply recession, which is I think what you are seeing now. It forces everyone to pay more until they no longer can sustain it.
Once rates increase, it costs businesses a lot more to borrow. That means their interest expense increases and forces them to raise prices to cover the cost of increased interest expense. This also slows down businesses growth in investment which doesn't create jobs.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 15, 2022, 01:09:18 PM
As for lake property yes I don’t expect it to go down in price, just to hold and not so many offers and surely not way above asking. I live near the Great Lakes,about a half hour from Erie or Huron and we’ve been looking for a place near the shores of Lake Huron.
There would be no mortgage so I couldn’t careless about interest rates,others may not be in that position so I’m hoping there will be more availability and fewer offers.
I'd love to live on a lake. I've thought about taking some of my retirement money and buying a lake house and then turning around and monetizing it with a reverse mortgage. Those can be tricky but can work for you in certain circumstances. Sort of like buying an annuity that I can live in. I couldn't care less if the bank gets it when I die.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on July 15, 2022, 01:25:20 PM
If you want to make some of the profits, open your own business and experience the risk side too.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: morfiend on July 15, 2022, 01:39:52 PM
I'd love to live on a lake. I've thought about taking some of my retirement money and buying a lake house and then turning around and monetizing it with a reverse mortgage. Those can be tricky but can work for you in certain circumstances. Sort of like buying an annuity that I can live in. I couldn't care less if the bank gets it when I die.
Well a reverse mortgage is just a secured line of credit but I get it.
We’re thinking along the lines of an air b&b,rent it out for the weekends and stay there during the week when the beaches aren’t so busy. Then of course we would add our kid to the title so when we pass the kid gets it without tax implications.
Weekend rates can be quite lucrative and a single weekend would cover more than the monthly expenses. My wife would make it her permanent residence and I’d keep our house in the city as mine,no capital gains taxes would need to be paid. My kid and his wife could do the same thing and we plan to pass on our house to our grandson,he’s not of legal age to put on the title yet.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on July 15, 2022, 01:53:02 PM
I'd love to live on a lake. I've thought about taking some of my retirement money and buying a lake house and then turning around and monetizing it with a reverse mortgage. Those can be tricky but can work for you in certain circumstances. Sort of like buying an annuity that I can live in. I couldn't care less if the bank gets it when I die.
don't think you can get a reverse mortgage on a second home. not sure if a reverse mortgage is taxable if so you'll pay taxes twice. one you cash out your retirement and again if reverse mortgage is taxable.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Spikes on July 15, 2022, 01:53:29 PM
I think you make some great points here and I'll expand on that. The main "issue" with businesses not paying the correct labor is due to the fact that they pay based on a market rate, rather than what their business actually achieves in gross profit. For example, you will hire a parts tech at the counter for $19 an hour regardless of how much your business makes in gross profit. It's just what the industry rate is. If they have more experience maybe bump them to 23. Unfortunately, that is just the way it is. Sorta how in some businesses you cannot even get hired if you don't have a degree regardless if you have clout and 3 patents to your name with 30 years in the industry, (my dad). Some businesses are stupid. Businesses also pay a payroll tax on every single employees labor. A payroll of 50k will cost the business another 5k more in payroll taxes a month, essentially about 60k a year. Payroll taxes also steal wages from workers. You arent making "80k" a year. You are making 65k a year after taxes. The company is paying you with money you aren't even getting. It's clear to me that businesses have not come to the idea that If they are doing better than their competitors, they should offer higher wages to people to get "the best worker" as you want the best coming to you to work for the better wage. It's getting there, but everyone understands eventually how hard it is to actually make payroll when you open a small business. A small store cannot afford to pay someone $30 an hour with too many employees at that rate. You have to take quality into consideration. For example, if you have a question in a store about where a product is and there is no one there, vs someone coming up to you asking if you need help. Not all businesses are smart businesses either. I've never been able to figure out why sales people get all of the credit with commission checks and no one else who processes all of their crap for them gets any of it.
Increasing prices is not always the best solution. Economy of scale and diminishing returns comes into play where you start increasing prices too high. Unfortunately, many businesses are forced to increase prices when hit with higher taxes because they need to keep their net profit inline along with paying the higher cost of their vendors increased prices. Once those expenses become so high they eventually cannot keep up with the market and have to close down because they cannot sell their products at too high of prices. This is when the recession hits and now no-one can afford anything. When they increase monetary printing, it is created without any productivity and therfore decreases the value of it. Thats my way of looking at it. It gets spent artificially and causes major supply shortage issues. Those supply issues are what forces companies to increase prices due to not having enough supply to maintain the rampant demand. That's when you go into a supply recession, which is I think what you are seeing now. It forces everyone to pay more until they no longer can sustain it.
Once rates increase, it costs businesses a lot more to borrow. That means their interest expense increases and forces them to raise prices to cover the cost of increased interest expense. This also slows down businesses growth in investment which doesn't create jobs.
You certainly aren't wrong.
The issue with wage stems from the stagnation that happened back in the 70s. People were just fine with it as it got worse and worse. Corporate profits skyrocketed and wages stayed the same. Now, people want more than the 'market rate' that has been 'set' by these various jobs and industries for a long time mainly because the cost of living is so much higher. The corporations can of course afford to pay these wages but refuse to because typically there is usually someone willing to work for less.
Just my non-boomer-old-white way of looking at it.
I agree - businesses should be out there trying to hire the best workers for the job and pay accordingly to get those people, but then that would effect their bottom line and CEO wouldn't be able to buy the new 2023 Ferrari.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 15, 2022, 02:06:10 PM
don't think you can get a reverse mortgage on a second home. not sure if a reverse mortgage is taxable if so you'll pay taxes twice. one you cash out your retirement and again if reverse mortgage is taxable.
It would be my main residence. There are a couple of lakes within 30 min of my land. The lake house would be my main residence and the land where I go on the weekend to get away from all the jet-skiers.
I'd buy the house out of my Roth IRA. No tax on that.
There are different ways to set it up. The way I would prefer is like Morfiend suggested. It sets up the reverse mortgage amount as a line of credit. Instead of getting a monthly check. There are months I might want to pull from it and months I might not. Some months I may want more than others. In the end, I only pay pack what I withdrew so given high appreciation of lake property, I might still come out ahead.
Essentially it would allow me to have the lake house while still allowing me access to a appreciable amount of the money I used to buy it without having to sell it to access the equity.
[Edit] The difference between a reverse mortgage and simply a HELOC is with a HELOC I have to start paying back\interest on what I take out immediately. With a reverse mortgage I don't pay anything until I die or sell the property.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 15, 2022, 02:12:09 PM
The issue with wage stems from the stagnation that happened back in the 70s. People were just fine with it as it got worse and worse. Corporate profits skyrocketed and wages stayed the same. Now, people want more than the 'market rate' that has been 'set' by these various jobs and industries for a long time mainly because the cost of living is so much higher. The corporations can of course afford to pay these wages but refuse to because typically there is usually someone willing to work for less.
Just my non-boomer-old-white way of looking at it.
I agree wage stagnation and excessive income inequality are real problems.
I just argue that creating serial boom\bust gyrations from excessively loose money policy doesn't do regular folks much net good.
Did regular folk generally profit from the Tech crash?
Did regular folk generally profit from the GFC crash?
Not that I can see.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: MiloMorai on July 15, 2022, 03:07:54 PM
The issue with wage stems from the stagnation that happened back in the 70s. People were just fine with it as it got worse and worse. Corporate profits skyrocketed and wages stayed the same. Now, people want more than the 'market rate' that has been 'set' by these various jobs and industries for a long time mainly because the cost of living is so much higher. The corporations can of course afford to pay these wages but refuse to because typically there is usually someone willing to work for less.
Just my non-boomer-old-white way of looking at it.
I agree - businesses should be out there trying to hire the best workers for the job and pay accordingly to get those people, but then that would effect their bottom line and CEO wouldn't be able to buy the new 2023 Ferrari.
True, but as the saying goes, "You generally get what you pay for". My theory if you will, is that businesses would actually make more in profits by hiring better workers at higher wages which increases quality and customer satisfaction.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: MiloMorai on July 15, 2022, 03:58:17 PM
True, but as the saying goes, "You generally get what you pay for". My theory if you will, is that businesses would actually make more in profits by hiring better workers at higher wages which increases quality and customer satisfaction.
Making the workers a share holder in the company is a good incentive.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on July 15, 2022, 04:42:59 PM
The issue with wage stems from the stagnation that happened back in the 70s. People were just fine with it as it got worse and worse. Corporate profits skyrocketed and wages stayed the same. Now, people want more than the 'market rate' that has been 'set' by these various jobs and industries for a long time mainly because the cost of living is so much higher. The corporations can of course afford to pay these wages but refuse to because typically there is usually someone willing to work for less.
Just my non-boomer-old-white way of looking at it.
I agree - businesses should be out there trying to hire the best workers for the job and pay accordingly to get those people, but then that would effect their bottom line and CEO wouldn't be able to buy the new 2023 Ferrari.
In the end, the person who sets one's worth is their own self. What will they work for? If it meets their requirement, they take the job.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on July 15, 2022, 05:06:50 PM
Making the workers a share holder in the company is a good incentive.
Those are great incentives. Providing a 401k is great aswell. I set up a Simple IRA at one of the businesses I worked for and it worked really well. Some of those guys were investing 600 a month with a 3% match, the salesmen would sometimes put thousands a month. I had 6k invested just in that in 2 years and 10k with the unrealized gains that I've since lost. The one thing though that you have to b careful with though is you don't want to profit share as a business owner because then your best people will retire early and you don't necessarily want that for your business.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Spikes on July 15, 2022, 07:58:13 PM
I would prefer seeing the rates pegged to some variation of the Taylor Rule.
I think it would be better without the Fed. Interest rates then would be set by a market, which is ultimately the true determiner anyway in the long run.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on July 16, 2022, 02:12:00 AM
Yeah, that's the point. People are starting to set their own worth higher than said 'market price'. And the Old White Boomers don't know what to do.
And like the US software engineers in the late 90's early 2000s they will price themselves out of a job ..replaced with cheaper alternatives
With higher salaries come higher prices as corporations will protect their profits
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: RotBaron on July 16, 2022, 07:45:45 AM
I’d gladly put my mask back on if it meant I didn’t catch the latest mutation.
Unfortunately I did both.
This crap has hit practically every body system for me: digestive, respiratory, cardiovascular (higher resting heart rate), neuromuscular…
Body aches and headache from Hades at times. Day 10 and pretty much over the worst I hope, but what lingers is my taste is so altered nearly everything tastes horrible or the aftertaste does, 3 sips into a cup of coffee it tastes like garbage.
Hope you fair better if you get this crap.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: MiloMorai on July 16, 2022, 09:23:55 AM
you clowns have been living off credit for 30 Years.
Time for reality financial reset
I pay with cash , my car is a piece of crap focus and my house is paid for.
I own everything
You own nothing except debt
Your masters don’t need you now and they are asking for their money back
PUT YOUR MASKS BACK ON AND BE A MAN OR A WOMAN.
B A S E D
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 18, 2022, 08:11:00 AM
Doesn't record inflation warp any earnings report?
I mean like taxes wouldn't higher earnings be expected if prices are at record increases?
As those earnings are bloated how can the report of those figures push the market higher?
It's like a crooked shell game
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: icepac on July 18, 2022, 08:56:23 AM
"Software engineers" did not price themselves out............at least not real software engineers.
The real software engineers positions were threatened by recent computer graduates who looked good on paper but had zero knowledge outside of a narrow band.........the narrow band of knowledge that got them the job.
The problem was that very few had any skills to speak of and expected high wages right out of school. The employers bought the hype and paid them well while replacing the true experts with said skill challenged new graduates.
This happened and I was right in the center of it when it went down.
Investment capitol for new startups helped speed it along by hiring new graduates with zero experience and not worrying about the payroll spending until they discovered that they were getting nothing for their money.
In my last two computer jobs back then, I got out before being let go when I saw the writing on the wall and watched the employers struggle to fill my position.
This played out for months after I left as friends filled me in. Employers started with one employee and quickly added another when he struggled. Then they pulled skilled IT guys from another department who quickly got tired of babysitting a recent and unskilled employee and left.
By that time, investment capitalists were starting to expect returns on their investments but there were none.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on July 18, 2022, 10:14:59 AM
"Software engineers" did not price themselves out............at least not real software engineers.
The real software engineers positions were threatened by recent computer graduates who looked good on paper but had zero knowledge outside of a narrow band.........the narrow band of knowledge that got them the job.
The problem was that very few had any skills to speak of and expected high wages right out of school. The employers bought the hype and paid them well while replacing the true experts with said skill challenged new graduates.
This happened and I was right in the center of it when it went down.
Investment capitol for new startups helped speed it along by hiring new graduates with zero experience and not worrying about the payroll spending until they discovered that they were getting nothing for their money.
In my last two computer jobs back then, I got out before being let go when I saw the writing on the wall and watched the employers struggle to fill my position.
This played out for months after I left as friends filled me in. Employers started with one employee and quickly added another when he struggled. Then they pulled skilled IT guys from another department who quickly got tired of babysitting a recent and unskilled employee and left.
By that time, investment capitalists were starting to expect returns on their investments but there were none.
There is a major disconnect between what these kids think they will make getting out of college compared to reality. I know because I was one of them. So was the last guy who worked for me. The interesting part is that these graduates who go to college right after high school who haven't worked in business other than working retail or restaurants haven't a clue how the real world works when they do actually get a job. After 4 years of rather difficult college work, I was stuck entering large Tshirt purchase orders into Quickbooks. It was so boring. I asked myself, I really went to 4 years of learning complicated calculus and finance to enter purchase orders for $14 an hour? That being said, it only took 10 months of that before I was able to get my first accounting job that I didn't think I even had a chance of getting because I had that simple basic Quickbooks knowledge (with a degree). That was for $17 an hour :rofl. I've had to teach myself how to be good at every job sinse then because I've never had someone actually train me. These kids don't understand that to really make it in this world, you have to learn the position yourself and take charge of that position. If you think someone is going to sit there and train you, you are already losing. Also, you take the first job as a learning experience rather than the money. Something else they don't understand. You have to learn the real world, then you gradually move into better positions and make more money. College doesn't teach you how systems work. They teach you the basic fundamentals of the career you want to be in.
Many business want college students because they believe that If you are capable of graduating than you are certainly capable of being a good worker. That's not always the case as many students get into a job and realize it's not what they expected. One thing I've learned is that you always get what you pay for. So if you choose to hire people who just graduated at really cheap rates for a higher tier position, than you aren't going to get the best productivity. If you choose people who have a lot of experience, but cost more, you will probably do much better as a business. My belief is that when you are young, you always work for experience rather than the pay, because that experience will always give you leverage to make more down the line. Therefore if you ask for less than the other college grad, you'll get the position and jump start your career. You've always gotta ask yourself, where will I be in 5 years if I continue learning my current position to the best of my ability. It's not ever how you expect it to be, but generally you will be in a much better place.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 18, 2022, 11:47:20 AM
Business like offshore as they get "college grads" for their $$$
I have been told by Indian contractors some of those degrees aren't worth the paper they are written on as you can purchase a degree and it's not validated in many cases..
Russian contractors having total control of software changes to the billing systems of US corporations...
That's right we are a happy peaceful trusting global village...no reason for concern
That with China providing the network hardware...what could possibly go wrong...
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Shuffler on July 18, 2022, 12:40:55 PM
I'll take experience over college any day.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: guncrasher on July 18, 2022, 01:01:49 PM
ha, you can write college degree and companies don't check to see if it's true. I know people with good jobs and a high school degree. but smart enough to write college degree in best way to hard boil an egg. they make me smile. smart enough to bs their way in, not dumb enough to have college loans. but they do give their best.
semp
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on July 19, 2022, 01:29:23 AM
CUT AND PASTE is the new expression of intelligence.
If you post more than 6 large paragraphs your a clown.
In the UK we read books to be informed
In the US you read to show your intellectual prowess
That is why your white ridden guilt liberals were in despair when Floyd a dirty crimminal was buried in a golden coffin.
I am proud to be gay :rofl
That’s the best you’ve got :rofl
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on July 19, 2022, 08:17:42 AM
CUT AND PASTE is the new expression of intelligence.
If you post more than 6 large paragraphs your a clown.
In the UK we read books to be informed
In the US you read to show your intellectual prowess
That is why your white ridden guilt liberals were in despair when Floyd a dirty crimminal was buried in a golden coffin.
I am proud to be gay :rofl
That’s the best you’ve got :rofl
Well, being "informed" doesn't always mean the leadership reflects that "informity". Remember, the majority of the world only sees America thru "the lens of the media". The Lot of America and smaller cities are quite a bit different than how they represent us to the world. Unfortunately, that power of representation has been abused to project the worst of American culture. I'm sure it's like that for other countries as well for the most part.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on July 19, 2022, 10:00:31 AM
Well, being "informed" doesn't always mean the leadership reflects that "informity". Remember, the majority of the world only sees America thru "the lens of the media". The Lot of America and smaller cities are quite a bit different than how they represent us to the world. Unfortunately, that power of representation has been abused to project the worst of American culture. I'm sure it's like that for other countries as well for the most part.
So the US is not full of fatties?
So the transgender military representatives at Bastille day are a fiction?
So you still not allowed to see Russian media?
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 19, 2022, 10:11:33 AM
Has to be a full 1.00 point this month or they are just acting and truly not trying to control or correct anything
Eagler
Market is oversold, people think the bottom has hit. Earnings will be stellar and prove that the market being down is a construct rather than actual poor financial results. I think people still want to spend money for summer vacations and are letting loose from the covid stuff.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 19, 2022, 01:30:53 PM
Market is oversold, people think the bottom has hit. Earnings will be stellar and prove that the market being down is a construct rather than actual poor financial results. I think people still want to spend money for summer vacations and are letting loose from the covid stuff.
I think most are maxing out their sources of credit...spending money they don't have, living beyond their means...business as usual
Who in their right minds think we hit any kind of bottom already with inflation still climbing?
The fed needs to shock and awe the markets with at minimum a one full point interest rate increase if not more this month and next imo
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Arlo on July 19, 2022, 01:38:13 PM
Markets are very rational over the long term. Markets can be quite irrational in the short run.
You're seeing people betting that earnings won't come in too bad. <shrug> We'll see. It's understandable the initial bank earning weren't bad. They tend to do well in higher interest rate environments. :cool: Other industries not so much.
I wouldn't sweat the daily fluctuations. I'm withholding judgement until the end of the month. I want to see the full earning results and see what the Fed raises to next meeting.
Nothing I've seen makes me think the market has bottomed. With VIX at 24, I've not seen anything looking like capitulation, which is generally a prerequisite to a bottom.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Spikes on July 19, 2022, 02:17:54 PM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 22, 2022, 06:34:30 AM
Best to have a few $$$ under the mattress these days...
That can happen anywhere at anytime
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on July 22, 2022, 06:37:02 AM
GME split this morning. Thinking about buying a few today just for shizngigs, there is a lot of a buying power behind that stock. I didn't want to get in at $140, but $40 might be a good buy. I could see it going up $15 today.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Eagler on July 22, 2022, 07:09:18 AM
They usually drop a bit right after a split
Eagler
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on July 22, 2022, 07:52:22 AM
Are your poor on welfare in Harlem and Detroit going to gain anything from your investments in your so called enemy China
Why don’t to make IPhones in the US and give YOUR own a future.
What good patriots you people are.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: -gg- on July 22, 2022, 08:29:45 AM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: Meatwad on July 22, 2022, 11:01:36 AM
He is still upset that we dumped all of his tea into the harbor
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: DmonSlyr on July 22, 2022, 11:52:26 AM
Held off on GME. That bearish activity was looking strong this morning. Personally I don't really care for the fundamentals.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: -gg- on July 22, 2022, 11:55:01 AM
I got screwed by buying GM stock and then the government let them reorganize wiping out my stocks. As if nothing ever happened. Never buy anything from them again
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: icepac on July 22, 2022, 01:32:22 PM
Biggest mistake was selling china and taiwan the latest lithography machines.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on July 22, 2022, 03:26:04 PM
Zach is different though. He doesn't buy anything made in China. He's smarter and better than everybody else. Well, in Nigeria
Difference is I don’t degrade myself with virtue signalling about how moral and caring I am.
You people grandstand above the oppressed of the world.
You refuse to accept any responsibility for anything.
You are incapable of admitting that your greed puts your own people in poverty.
You make grand statements based on sound bites taken from the internet.
You stated OPEC without any real historical evidence of that organisation
The best you have to respond is GRAMMER :rofl
You get triggered at a drop of a hat when challenged by the cut & paste you post.
Access to unlimited information and you people still wave your pitchforks :rofl
Admit once you are part of the system that leaves people in poverty!
You can’t
Your arrogance will not allow it.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 22, 2022, 06:35:26 PM
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: FLS on July 22, 2022, 06:44:51 PM
We have the richest poor people in the world.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: CptTrips on July 22, 2022, 06:57:20 PM
And when you hear people saying we can't be in a recession because employment is so high, note that employment is always the laggy-est of indicators.
Businesses are going to try everything they can to avoid laying off the people they just had to struggle so hard attracting during the Great Resignation. They'll probably fail mostly and when the lay-offs start, it's going to be a tidal wave.
Employment isn't a canary in the coal mine; it's the last shoe to drop.
Blood in the streets by Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: The Great Unwinding
Post by: zack1234 on July 23, 2022, 04:42:19 AM