Aces High Bulletin Board

General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: CptTrips on June 14, 2023, 03:53:31 PM

Title: Survivor Bias
Post by: CptTrips on June 14, 2023, 03:53:31 PM: This story always amazes me:

https://www.trevorbragdon.com/when-data-gives-the-wrong-solution/ (https://www.trevorbragdon.com/when-data-gives-the-wrong-solution/)

(https://www.trevorbragdon.com/content/images/size/w960/2021/08/Plane-bullet-holes-survivor-bias-1.jpg)
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: oboe on June 14, 2023, 04:08:52 PM: Excellent post, thank you CptTrips.
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: Peabody on June 14, 2023, 06:56:58 PM: Great read. Thanks.
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: Brooke on June 15, 2023, 12:16:10 AM: Excellent post. :aok
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: CptTrips on June 15, 2023, 08:35:21 AM: Quote from: Brooke on June 15, 2023, 12:16:10 AM
Excellent post. :aok

(https://www.thinkindependent.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Aint-what-you-dont-know-Image-Mark-Twain-1200x480.jpg)
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: Eagler on June 15, 2023, 09:41:51 AM: That's life

Eagler
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: Maverick on June 15, 2023, 10:21:27 AM: The flaw in the original studies conclusion is so obvious, after reading the analysis of the reviewer, it makes you wonder how the researchers didn't see it themselves.

Good case of bias indeed.
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: CptTrips on June 15, 2023, 01:58:22 PM: Quote from: Maverick on June 15, 2023, 10:21:27 AM
The flaw in the original studies conclusion is so obvious, after reading the analysis of the reviewer, it makes you wonder how the researchers didn't see it themselves.

Good case of bias indeed.

You know there was wincing and face-palms when that was pointed out to them. :rofl
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: Bizman on June 16, 2023, 01:13:19 AM: That's an easy to remember example. The number of people whose thinking isn't biased that way must be very small!

Thanks for sharing, you gave me a new goal to try to reach.
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: CptTrips on June 16, 2023, 08:36:09 AM: Quote from: Bizman on June 16, 2023, 01:13:19 AM
That's an easy to remember example. The number of people whose thinking isn't biased that way must be very small!

Thanks for sharing, you gave me a new goal to try to reach.

:aok

One of my favorite infographics I keep printed out and posted above my computer:

(https://www.socialtalent.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/IMG_4299.jpg)

And this also was a great book:

https://www.amazon.com/How-We-Decide-Jonah-Lehrer/dp/0547247990 (https://www.amazon.com/How-We-Decide-Jonah-Lehrer/dp/0547247990)

Also you might want to research the work of Dr. Daniel Kahneman.

:salute
Title: Re: Survivor Bias
Post by: Dichotomy on June 18, 2023, 08:55:26 AM: Quote from: Maverick on June 15, 2023, 10:21:27 AM
The flaw in the original studies conclusion is so obvious, after reading the analysis of the reviewer, it makes you wonder how the researchers didn't see it themselves.

Good case of bias indeed.

I wouldn't say 'bias' as much as mission focus. The analysts were focusing on the data they saw instead of considering the data they didn't see. I have been guilty of that to my chagrin in the past and learned the lesson.