Aces High Bulletin Board

General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: MiloMorai on August 11, 2023, 06:06:43 AM

Title: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: MiloMorai on August 11, 2023, 06:06:43 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/weather/topstories/expect-a-busy-2023-hurricane-season-due-to-record-atlantic-temps-noaa-says/ar-AA1f6t6s

The slower onset of El Niño and record-breaking warm ocean temperatures may lead to a busier than normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday.

In its annual hurricane update that comes in August after an initial May outlook, NOAA increased the likelihood that there will be an "above normal" hurricane season to 60 per cent, up from a 30 per cent chance in May.

The agency said there could be 14 to 21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are ones that reach Category 3 to 5 and have winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. It gave a 25 per cent chance of a near-normal hurricane season, down from 40 per cent, and a 15 per cent chance of below normal. The forecast is given with 70 per cent confidence.


Will the predictions come true?
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Chris79 on August 11, 2023, 06:54:54 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/c8C5fLF/IMG-7577.png) (https://ibb.co/NNmhDSj)
(https://i.ibb.co/sWVJcwD/IMG-7576.jpg) (https://ibb.co/GH53G21)
(https://i.ibb.co/QrrBq51/IMG-7575.jpg) (https://ibb.co/wMMHbvx)

As of right now the Atlantic Ocean is extraordinarily hostile to tropical cyclones. That is subject to chance, especially in September, but warm SST’s are just one ingredient in tropical cyclone formation.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Chris79 on August 11, 2023, 07:03:59 AM
Here is day 10 of the ECMWF “euro model”.
(https://i.ibb.co/mXfS6JP/IMG-7581.png) (https://ibb.co/vQ0DZ1M)
(https://i.ibb.co/wNCkhfX/IMG-7582.png) (https://ibb.co/MDpvkm4)
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Chris79 on August 11, 2023, 07:14:20 AM
Those images are the 200-850mb wind shear and relative humidity respectively.
For the shear image, any color from dark blue to red will rip apart any cyclone that is forming or has already formed. The bottom image, relative, relative humidity, any color from light sand to brown is not conducive for tropical cyclones.
You will notice a 1005mb low south of Puerto Rico and 1010mb low by the Cape Verde Islands. Those entities, most likely tropical depressions, will probably not develop much due to the hostile environment.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Chris79 on August 11, 2023, 07:18:52 AM
As for NOAA’s predictions, whether or not 14 to 21 storms actually form, I will damn near guarantee that NOAA/NHC, will name at least 14 storms.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: -gg- on August 11, 2023, 12:12:03 PM
these normal weather cycles can be so shocking

Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Chris79 on August 11, 2023, 12:19:50 PM
these normal weather cycles can be so shocking
Being a Floridian for 33 years this is the most unique pattern I remember. The rainy season is stunted due to the mid/upper level winds being more westerly then easterly. The lack of rain/thunderstorms/cloud cover has caused to GoM SSTs to run significantly above seasonal mean, ~4f.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: knorB on August 11, 2023, 01:02:45 PM
Being a Floridian for 33 years this is the most unique pattern I remember. The rainy season is stunted due to the mid/upper level winds being more westerly then easterly. The lack of rain/thunderstorms/cloud cover has caused to GoM SSTs to run significantly above seasonal mean, ~4f.
Here it has been unseasonably wet.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Chris79 on August 11, 2023, 01:12:40 PM
Here it has been unseasonably wet.

East Coast?
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: knorB on August 12, 2023, 12:44:18 PM
East Coast?

TN, usually very wet spring followed by a mostly dry and hot summer.  This summer has been one rain event after another.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Chris79 on August 25, 2023, 05:09:59 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/qCbbbxj/IMG-7697.gif) (https://ibb.co/qCbbbxj) (https://i.ibb.co/xL6nhJH/IMG-7694.jpg) (https://ibb.co/xL6nhJH) (https://i.ibb.co/G9BBGDR/IMG-7695.jpg) (https://ibb.co/G9BBGDR)

This one may get interesting. Looks like shear is going to lighten up, the waters are nice and warm, there is a bit of dry air aloft in the northern gulf however. It looks as though a center is starting to form around 20n and 85.5w a little further east then originally forecasted. The less interaction with land it has originally will affect its intensity later on.



Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: RUSH1 on August 25, 2023, 08:43:13 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/qCbbbxj/IMG-7697.gif) (https://ibb.co/qCbbbxj) (https://i.ibb.co/xL6nhJH/IMG-7694.jpg) (https://ibb.co/xL6nhJH) (https://i.ibb.co/G9BBGDR/IMG-7695.jpg) (https://ibb.co/G9BBGDR)

This one may get interesting. Looks like shear is going to lighten up, the waters are nice and warm, there is a bit of dry air aloft in the northern gulf however. It looks as though a center is starting to form around 20n and 85.5w a little further east then originally forecasted. The less interaction with land it has originally will affect its intensity later on.

We need the rain.   
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Eagler on August 26, 2023, 06:34:58 AM
We need the rain.

We sure do..good thing it usually follows dry hot spurts

August will go down as record heat which will be used to push the agenda

Best bogeyman ever!

Eagler
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Meatwad on August 26, 2023, 07:55:02 AM
All the weather patterns that allowed these things to happen are all 100% ignored. Its never about how the forecast models predicted high pressure or low pressure to build and trap air/frontal systems and air boundaries, etc. Its always claimed as sudden surprise "came out of nowhere, not forecast, nobody ever seen this coming.  But the agenda has been carefully worded so ANY weather event on this planet can be used to push it.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: icepac on August 28, 2023, 08:23:59 AM
Reminds me of the 2005 season.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Dadtallica on August 28, 2023, 08:29:22 AM
Even if you don’t quite grasp an anthropomorphic changing climate, please stay safe if you and your family are in the way of one of these things!
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: -gg- on August 28, 2023, 04:53:24 PM
An average hurricane season has 14 names storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Most years - going back to when records begin, are average or very close to average.

There is nothing new happening.

Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: -gg- on August 28, 2023, 05:04:07 PM

http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm

Here are all of the storms up until 2020. Do you see anything out of the ordinary in modern times? No, you do not.

It's super easy to take a minute to do even the most basic research on these things


Year       Named Storms   Hurricanes   Major
Hurricanes
1851    6   3   1
1852    5   5   1
1853         8   4   2
1854        5    3   1
1855    5   4   1
1856    6   4   2
1857    4   3   0
1858    6   6   0
1859    8   7   1
1860    7   6   1
1861     8   6   0
1862     6   3   0
1863     9   5   0
1864     5   3   0
1865     7   3   0
1866     7   6   1
1867     9   7   1
1868     4   3   0
1869    10   7   1
1870    11   10   2
1871    8   6   2
1872    5   4   0
1873    5   3   2
1874    7   4   0
1875    6   5   1
1876    5   4   2
1877    8   3   1
1878    12   10   2
1879    8   6   2
1880    11   9   2
1881    7   4   0
1882    6   4   2
1883    4   3   2
1884    4   4   1
1885    8   6   0
1886    12   10   4
1887    19   11   2
1888    9   6   2
1889    9   6   0
1890    4   2   1
1891    10   7   1
1892    9   5   0
1893    12   10   5
1894    7   5   4
1895    6    2   0
1896    7   6   2
1897    6   3   0
1898    11   5   1
1899    10   5   2
1900    7   3   2
1901    13   6   0
1902    5   3   0
1903    10   7   1
1904    6   4   0
1905    5   1   1
1906    11   6   3
1907    5   0   0
1908    10   6   1
1909    12   6   4
1910    5   3   1
1911    6   3   0
1912    7   4   1
1913    6   4   0
1914    1   0   0
1915    6   5   3
1916    15   10   5
1917    4   2   2
1918    6   4   1
1919    5   2   1
1920    5   4   0
1921    7   5   2
1922    5   3   1
1923    9   4   1
1924    11   5   2
1925    4   1   0
1926    11   8   6
1927    8   4   1
1928    6   4   1
1929    5   3   1
1930    3   2   2
1931    13   3   1
1932    15   6   4
1933    20   11   6
1934    13   7   1
1935     8   5   3
1936     17   7   1
1937     11   4   1
1938     9   4   2
1939     6   3   1
1940     9   6   0
1941     6   4   3
1942     11   4   1
1943     10   5   2
1944    14   8   3
1945    11   5   2
1946      6   3   1
1947    9   5   2
1948    9   6   4
1949    13   7   3
1950    13   11   8
1951    10   8   5
1952    7   6   3
1953    14   6   4
1954    11   8   2
1955    12   9   6
1956    8   4   2
1957    8   3   2
1958    10   7   5
1959    11   7   2
1960    7   4   2
1961    11   8   7
1962    5   3   1
1963    9   7   2
1964    12   6   6
1965    6   4   1
1966    11   7   3
1967    8   6   1
1968    8   4   0
1969    18   12   5
1970    10   5   2
1971    13   6   1
1972    7   3   0
1973    8   4   1
1974    11   4   2
1975    9   6   3
1976    10   6   2
1977    6   5   1
1978    12   5   2
1979    9   5   2
1980    11   9   2
1981    12   7   3
1982    6   2   1
1983    4   3   1
1984    13   5   1
1985    11   7   3
1986    6   4   0
1987    7   3   1
1988    12   5   3
1989    11   7   2
1990    14   8   1
1991    8   4   2
1992    7   4   1
1993    8   4   1
1994    7   3   0
1995    19   11   5
1996    13   9   6
1997    8   3   1
1998    14   10   3
1999    12   8   5
2000    15   8   3
2001    15   9   4
2002    12   4   2
2003    16   7   3
2004    15   9   6
2005    28   15   7
2006    10   5   2
2007    15   6   2
2008    16   8   5
2009    9   3   2
2010    19   12   5
2011    19   7   4
2012    19   10   2
2013    14   2   0
2014    8   6   2
2015    11   4   2
2016    15   7   4
2017    17   10   6


Average
1981-2010   12   6.5   2
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Meatwad on August 28, 2023, 05:59:30 PM
Also doesnt account for the storms that were not known to of existed back in the 1850 - 1930 and were not accounted for due to no satellites picking up stuff out in the middle of the ocean
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Dadtallica on August 28, 2023, 06:15:27 PM
Also doesnt account for the storms that were not known to of existed back in the 1850 - 1930 and were not accounted for due to no satellites picking up stuff out in the middle of the ocean

The number of storms or events are not the point. It’s about the severity.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: guncrasher on August 28, 2023, 06:18:09 PM
you can see that list and see how it increased with the industrial revolution.  that could be one way of interpreting that data.  another way is in  the last 20 years we have had more storms than previously.



semp
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Eagler on August 28, 2023, 06:23:09 PM
If the timing is right full moon tides will get a destructive boost along the west coast early Wednesday

Eagler
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: DmonSlyr on August 28, 2023, 06:56:37 PM
You'd think by now we'd have technology that could disperse the storms and prevent severity. My guess is that they'd rather just keep pushing their fear agenda so they can take us back to the 1700s.

I don't think the severity has gotten worse or less worse. It's more housing and more buildings that have been built that get damaged which costs more money overall making it seem worse as costs are much higher.

What you see in that chart represents their ability to call out storms and name them moreso than the years before, however "hurricane" and "major hurricane" figures haven't really changed.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: RUSH1 on August 28, 2023, 08:28:53 PM
The number of storms or events are not the point. It’s about the severity.

And the goal posts keep moving.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Dadtallica on August 28, 2023, 08:38:36 PM
And the goal posts keep moving.

Because it’s not a game.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: RUSH1 on August 28, 2023, 08:50:59 PM
Because it’s not a game.

Yet you clowns make it one.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: RUSH1 on August 28, 2023, 08:57:58 PM
The number of storms or events are not the point. It’s about the severity.

What are you basing severity on?  Documented wind speeds over a large sample size, or just more targets/structures for a storm to hit compared to say 100 years ago.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Chris79 on August 28, 2023, 11:09:07 PM
you can see that list and see how it increased with the industrial revolution.  that could be one way of interpreting that data.  another way is in  the last 20 years we have had more storms than previously.



semp

That means absolutely nothing. If you really want to obtain a yearly average of tropical cyclones 1960 is the best year to start. Before then, a fair number number of cyclones would have gone unreported due to the fact that they tend to form in areas of minimal shipping activity and there was no satellite imagery. Also the NHC tends to classify storms as tropical now that they would not have 20 years ago.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: guncrasher on August 28, 2023, 11:57:26 PM
That means absolutely nothing. If you really want to obtain a yearly average of tropical cyclones 1960 is the best year to start. Before then, a fair number number of cyclones would have gone unreported due to the fact that they tend to form in areas of minimal shipping activity and there was no satellite imagery. Also the NHC tends to classify storms as tropical now that they would not have 20 years ago.

i was just commenting on the table that gina provided.  basically many ways data can be interpreted


semp
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: -gg- on August 29, 2023, 02:30:16 AM
The number of storms or events are not the point. It’s about the severity.

The severity is not worse either.

I know some people try to associate hurricane damage with severity but that's not true. When a hurricane hits areas that are now full of houses where they didn't used to be houses, there's more damage.

It's common sense and you can do your own research.

I think it's ridiculous that people allow themselves to be taken in by things that they could understand on their own with very little effort.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: -gg- on August 29, 2023, 02:33:09 AM
And it's true about storms not being picked up in the 1800s that are now.

A named storm is any storm system that produces winds of at least 39 mph. Those were not detected before satellites. Or if they were it was very rarely. How could they know?

Hurricanes are not becoming more frequent and storms are not becoming more frequent. The severity is not worse either.

And I defy anybody to tell me a community where the ocean is crept up and taken away their homes.

Even if the sea does rise, we should does over centuries, it's not a disaster. Nothing bad is happening and people aren't dying from it. What are you going to have like 500 years to move your house back 5 ft from the ocean?

Just use common sense. Don't listen to the hype.

Global warming is not bad. It's a good thing. More people are alive and there's way more food being produced since the 1960s on only 10% more land. 390% more.

If it starts getting cold that's when crops are going to fail and people are going to starve to death. People are going to die when it gets cooler. Not warmer.

Common sense. History. Read it.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: MiloMorai on August 29, 2023, 05:52:25 AM
Common sense and gg.  :D :D :D
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Animl-AW on August 29, 2023, 07:50:09 AM
And it's true about storms not being picked up in the 1800s that are now.

A named storm is any storm system that produces winds of at least 39 mph. Those were not detected before satellites. Or if they were it was very rarely. How could they know?

Hurricanes are not becoming more frequent and storms are not becoming more frequent. The severity is not worse either.

And I defy anybody to tell me a community where the ocean is crept up and taken away their homes.

Even if the sea does rise, we should does over centuries, it's not a disaster. Nothing bad is happening and people aren't dying from it. What are you going to have like 500 years to move your house back 5 ft from the ocean?

Just use common sense. Don't listen to the hype.

Global warming is not bad. It's a good thing. More people are alive and there's way more food being produced since the 1960s on only 10% more land. 390% more.

If it starts getting cold that's when crops are going to fail and people are going to starve to death. People are going to die when it gets cooler. Not warmer.

Common sense. History. Read it.

Delirium at its best. Glad you posted it before someone else could, what an accomplishment.

Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: -gg- on August 29, 2023, 09:52:15 AM
I would love to have somebody contradict what I've said.
That there are no bad things happening due to climate change. The climate warming has been a blessing for humankind.

When the Earth gets cooler it's when we're going to be in trouble.

And the Earth one day will get cooler no matter what kind of CO2 output man is creating.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: Animl-AW on August 29, 2023, 11:32:36 AM
I would love to have somebody contradict what I've said.
That there are no bad things happening due to climate change. The climate warming has been a blessing for humankind.

When the Earth gets cooler it's when we're going to be in trouble.

And the Earth one day will get cooler no matter what kind of CO2 output man is creating.

Well, you do have a habit of trolling laughable nonsense. You’re easy to contradict, you don’t work on facts, its just worthless time consumption. People who “know it all” learn nothing. But please,.. continue. Politicians over science, brilliant stuff. I wouldn’t trust medical science either.
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: nopoop on August 29, 2023, 12:08:09 PM
Why is it that 95% in the entertainment industry are flaming liberals ? As far as reasearch goes, if you support the narrative you get funded. If you dont you are denying reality and no money for you...
Title: Re: 2023 hurricane season
Post by: DmonSlyr on August 29, 2023, 01:09:33 PM
Why is it that 95% in the entertainment industry are flaming liberals ? As far as reasearch goes, if you support the narrative you get funded. If you dont you are denying reality and no money for you...

Because "it's one big club, and you ain't in it" or something like that...

I think its freaking hilarious that people can think we can cause climate change and humans can "do something to stop it" yet we cannot use technological advances to break up and scatter a hurricane. We know that non human activity would still cause hurricanes. Seems more beneficial to create advances that break up hurricanes rather than virtue signal and try to force the west to ruin its economic advantages, but that's just me.