Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 27, 2024, 07:21:21 AM
Well, 5% is high for a prime rate.
Further, using the Fed to manipulate the interest rate in order to control inflation and stagnant wages is a complete JOKE.
The interest rate won't help inflation until it just lain kills real estate, and the automotive industry. At which point, wages will nose dive, and unemployment will soar.
The interest rate doesn't do squat for inflation. Inflation is driven by government spending, and the government giving away money. Plain and simple.
Government spending has been driving inflation insane for more than 60 years, and every time inflation surges, the prices never return to where they were, and wages fall further behind.
That's why in the fifties and early sixties, a working man with a decent job could buy a house, a car, feed a wife and three or more kids, have a stay at home wife, and have money saved. That was literally the norm, 60-70 years ago. And now that is near impossible.
People have become more miserable ever since. Jefferson once said "if we can prevent the government from wasting the people's wages under the pretense of "taking care of them", the people cannot help but to become happy." The government has been doing just the opposite, and an ever increasing rate, since Woodrow Wilson. It was accelerated by Franklin Roosevelt BEFORE World War II. Lyndon Johnson made it exponentially worse in 1968 with the help of congress. Only one president we have had since the turn of the 21st century has made it better.
The government will not control the insane level of spending, and regulation. The current $34,000,000,000,000 national debt can be accounted for solely by government entitlement spending since 1968.
The Republic has been in crisis since the citizens discovered they could vote themselves largesse from the public coffers.
We will continue to see inflation, until such time as the government moves to the Sowell/Freidman/Laffer model for the economy. Wages will fall further behind. Every time the government dumps billions into the economy, as in 2009 and 2021, inflation will surge to record levels.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Lazerr on April 27, 2024, 07:43:13 AM
Yeah when the interest rates suck, I tend not to buy anything on credit. I assume it's not just me who thinks like that.
A large purchase I might want, but not need, isn't going to happen when I'm getting raped on interest.
Tell me how me not buying things is going to help the economy.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Eagler on April 27, 2024, 08:02:44 AM
5% is not a high interest rate..ever
Not for a car or house loan and not for a cd..it's ridiculously low
Savers should be rewarded not ppl living way beyond their means via cheap credit with majority running maxed out on crazy credit card monthly interest rates...which is all many know these days as that is how it's been the majority of thier adult life
Inflation can be controlled with interest rate hikes but you have to have the balls to raise it to the level required to affect/crush the market properly....never happen these days as everyone is a political lightweight..
And of course the government has to stop TRILLION dollar deficits for it to work so there is that which goes back to corrupt politicians..
Enjoy your high prices going forward!
Eagler
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Meatwad on April 27, 2024, 08:43:42 AM
Doesnt help when this country sends hundreds of billions of dollars cash aid to other countries due to corruption and money laundering schemes so certain people in power get kickbacks for it
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 27, 2024, 09:42:18 AM
Yeah when the interest rates suck, I tend not to buy anything on credit. I assume it's not just me who thinks like that.
A large purchase I might want, but not need, isn't going to happen when I'm getting raped on interest.
Tell me how me not buying things is going to help the economy.
Their intent is exactly that, to stop you from buying things, to "cool the market".
Demand doesn't cause inflation so much as printing money to pay the INTEREST on the government debt, which kills the value of the dollar. Then they dump that devalued dollar into the economy as "incentives" and entitlements.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 27, 2024, 09:44:32 AM
Not for a car or house loan and not for a cd..it's ridiculously low
Savers should be rewarded not ppl living way beyond their means via cheap credit with majority running maxed out on crazy credit card monthly interest rates...which is all many know these days as that is how it's been the majority of thier adult life
Inflation can be controlled with interest rate hikes but you have to have the balls to raise it to the level required to affect/crush the market properly....never happen these days as everyone is a political lightweight..
And of course the government has to stop TRILLION dollar deficits for it to work so there is that which goes back to corrupt politicians..
Enjoy your high prices going forward!
Eagler
Sorry, 5% is stupid for a mortgage. Kills the housing market, keeps younger people out of homes, too.
Low interest doesn't drive inflation.
Government spending, government debt, and the government printing money to service the debt does. It kills the value of the dollar. Everywhere. From there, inflation goes insane.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 27, 2024, 09:45:59 AM
In '81 I was going to school on the GI bill, working part time, and raising a family. I started looking to buy a house. When I found the interest rate was 18% I said screw this and went back into the AF. Best decision I ever made. Thank you Jimmy Carter.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 27, 2024, 09:51:30 AM
In '81 I was going to school on the GI bill, working part time, and raising a family. I started looking to buy a house. When I found the interest rate was 18% I said screw this and went back into the AF. Best decision I ever made. Thank you Jimmy Carter.
What? You didn't like malaise? And runaway staglfation?
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Maverick on April 27, 2024, 09:58:49 AM
I tend to agree that the main cause of inflation is out of control government spending. When you print more money the value of the money decreases, especially when the printing outpaces the ability to pay back the loans taken out to provide the overspending.
The phrase that inflation is transitory is a flat out lie, gaslighting at it's worst. The RATE of inflation is transitory. The effects, not nearly so much. That is why you can't buy a 2500 sq ft 4 bedroom house on a residential lot (1/4 acre or little less) for $27000 like they were in the 1960's. I remember the folks looking to buy a new house and that was the price of the one they considered. They didn't buy and it was a good thing because my Dad went into the VA hospital the next year and died a year later.
I disagree that 5% interest is not high. The reason is simple as it depends on the amount being borrowed. The majority of borrowed money for a responsible person is for housing ie buying a house. The difference between a 5% and say a 2.25% interest rate on a large sum of money (over $150k) is substantial for a working family with an income of less than $100k. I refinanced my home and went to 2.25% from 3.75% and the difference was 1/3 of my mortgage payment on a 30 year loan. Cars / trucks now are costing more than houses were in the 80's. I know because my first house was $55k and my payments at 14% interest, which was the "norm" at that time, made the payment over $1250 a month. I am seeing reports and prices indicating common vehicles ranging in price from $30k to over $100k. I'm not talking about the idiot EV's either. Paying over $70k for a base f150 is ludicrous. Now if the loan amount is not large then 5% isn't silly but those new cars / trucks are requiring payments of over $1100 a month for sometimes up to 7 or 8 years.
If you crush private spending you risk, not a recession but a depression, due to lack or elimination of public demand for goods outside of food. No demand or private spending for durable goods means massive lay offs or outright closing of means of production. Lack of jobs means even less spending creating less demand and slower production of what goods are left. Over leveraging or investing with borrowed money led to the stock market collapse in the 1920's and cascaded down the pipe costing the country dearly.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Eagler on April 27, 2024, 11:12:04 AM
Sorry, 5% is stupid for a mortgage. Kills the housing market, keeps younger people out of homes, too.
Low interest doesn't drive inflation.
Government spending, government debt, and the government printing money to service the debt does. It kills the value of the dollar. Everywhere. From there, inflation goes insane.
5% doesn't kill the housing market selling 90k homes for 420k does
Low interest rates we have juiced the market with since 08 has caused this ...add it the trillions for stay home with your flu $$$$ and you have what we see today...
Eagler
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: RotBaron on April 27, 2024, 11:12:55 AM
The interest rate doesn't do squat for inflation. Inflation is driven by government spending, and the government giving away money. Plain and simple.
This is a difficult concept for the masses to either grasp or believe and a much smaller group to acknowledge. The latter are corrupt people that Jefferson and friends would have sent to the gallows.
We haven’t heard the phrase austerity in a long time because it’s so politically inconvenient; data manipulation is so much easier and when caught just call it a ‘conspiracy’, aided by the MSM they’re off the hook.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Eagler on April 27, 2024, 11:15:35 AM
Government spending went ape sheet when the interest rates were lowered to almost nothing...
Guess some think negative interest rates would be fantastic lol
Eagler
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 27, 2024, 11:21:48 AM
$400K houses are never going back to $90K. If they were to for whatever reason no one will sell theirs or build new ones. No one.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 27, 2024, 11:38:12 AM
If interest rates are up and I'm an investor what do I build? Not houses because people aren't buying. I build apartments because people who can't or won't buy at high rates still must have a place to live.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: RotBaron on April 27, 2024, 11:40:24 AM
“ The federal government is on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path that poses serious economic, national security, and social challenges if not addressed.” 2/16/24.
You can’t make this stuff up. Another Ukraine bill is already being crafted to be presented in September :noid
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Lazerr on April 27, 2024, 11:51:01 AM
If interest rates are up and I'm an investor what do I build? Not houses because people aren't buying. I build apartments because people who can't or won't buy at high rates still must have a place to live.
The increased cost and interest rate it cost you to build these will translate to the rent those folks pay.
I've been seeing rental properties that are a smaller home, in the middle of town with higher rent than my mortgage.
I can only assume they bought these properties at a 7% interest rate while the value of the property was ballooned like crazy.
I could sell my place for probably 50k more than I paid 5 years back, but I'll be overpaying for whatever I buy, and at x2 the interest rate.
I'll pass.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 27, 2024, 11:55:48 AM
If I'm an investor I have money. I'm not paying interest. However, it may be better spent loaning it out at the higher rate.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 27, 2024, 12:03:52 PM
We moved back to Texas from Idaho about 11 months ago and bought a place in an HOA with about 90 houses. Sales were hot then. Not so much now. There's a house a couple of blocks over for sale that is trying to sue the HOA because we have a restriction on the number allowed for rent. They don't want to rent it but have had several corporations interested until they learned it cannot be rented. Drive around the neighborhood and it's not hard to spot many of the rentals.
With the new TI and other plants being built here there is a lot of new development. I think apartments outnumber the houses at least 2 to 1.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: thndregg on April 27, 2024, 08:01:15 PM
We moved back to Texas from Idaho about 11 months ago and bought a place in an HOA with about 90 houses. Sales were hot then. Not so much now. There's a house a couple of blocks over for sale that is trying to sue the HOA because we have a restriction on the number allowed for rent. They don't want to rent it but have had several corporations interested until they learned it cannot be rented. Drive around the neighborhood and it's not hard to spot many of the rentals.
With the new TI and other plants being built here there is a lot of new development. I think apartments outnumber the houses at least 2 to 1.
My family's homestead is about a one hour drive just inside Oregon from Boise, Idaho. Buy & rental market has sucked for a long time. I gave up on the idea a long time ago of ever making it here in the Treasure Valley area. Every time a pay raise or promotion happens, so does the cost of living, taxes, inflation.. every.. damn.. time. And now it's so high that -- well FORGET IT!
So, found a po-dunk job I've really liked doing for the past eight years tutoring conversational English with students from over 50 countries in an online specialized video call platform, and "set up shop" in the Philippines earning dollars and spending pesos. It's been a nice change from my 40's into my 50's thus far. But, anything can happen. Nothing is ever truly secure anymore. It's been nice to rent a fairly large three bedroom house for only $180/month just outside of town.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 27, 2024, 09:05:54 PM
Government spending has little, or no, effect on inflation, consumers do, exceeding supply. Interest rates forces you to stop buying so much. Why consumers? Because they have more money to spend. Inflation or recession. Take your pick. You think spending will slow without interest rates forcing it?
Don’t over complicate it.
Same ppl didn’t mind 8 trillion on Iraq based on admitted lies of WMDs
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Eagler on April 28, 2024, 07:35:27 AM
Government spending has little, or no, effect on inflation, consumers do, exceeding supply. Interest rates forces you to stop buying so much. Why consumers? Because they have more money to spend. Inflation or recession. Take your pick. You think spending will slow without interest rates forcing it?
Don’t over complicate it.
Same ppl didn’t mind 8 trillion on Iraq based on admitted lies of WMDs
Of course government spending affects inflation..how can pumping printed billions into the system monthly not affect it...
I think they have to keep the train wreck going at this point...from handing out trillions in cough covid $$$ to those that didn't need it to financing every war on the globe..
Stop the spending so you can stop the borrowing, living within your means allows one not to worry about interest charged but can celebrate interest earned on safe investments..
Eagler
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 28, 2024, 08:44:45 AM
Government spending has little, or no, effect on inflation, consumers do, exceeding supply. Interest rates forces you to stop buying so much. Why consumers? Because they have more money to spend. Inflation or recession. Take your pick. You think spending will slow without interest rates forcing it?
Don’t over complicate it.
Same ppl didn’t mind 8 trillion on Iraq based on admitted lies of WMDs
Consumer spending only causes inflation in the event there is a supply/demand deficit. Otherwise, consumer spending drives prices down on the principle of volume production.
Government spending drives inflation at about a 90% cause/effect ratio. Only the government can inject so much money into the market that the value of the dollar is forced down, simply due to the volume of available dollars. Further, the government spends at a rate that creates massive debt. Such that not only is the vast majority of the $34,000,000,000,000 debt accumulated in the last 56 years, but the debt now grows at the rate of $1,000,000,000,000 every 120-180 days, and now the government quite literally cannot service the interest on the debt it owes. As such, the government prints money. And every single time the government prints more money, the value of the money already in circulation plummets. Now the U.S. dollar, once the strongest, most valuable currency on the planet, so valuable that by far the vast majority of commodities world wide are valued in dollars, and purchased with dollars, is threatened with replacement.
It is very simple. It's proven, beyond any doubt in the minds of anyone with common sense. Again, Friedman, Sowell, and Laffer have all proven it repeatedly.
WTAF does Iraq have to do with this discussion? Speak to the subject of the discussion, or just don't speak. Inane, pedantic bravo sierra contributes nothing.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 28, 2024, 08:48:11 AM
The increased cost and interest rate it cost you to build these will translate to the rent those folks pay.
I've been seeing rental properties that are a smaller home, in the middle of town with higher rent than my mortgage.
I can only assume they bought these properties at a 7% interest rate while the value of the property was ballooned like crazy.
I could sell my place for probably 50k more than I paid 5 years back, but I'll be overpaying for whatever I buy, and at x2 the interest rate.
I'll pass.
In the current market, it is far easier to rent than to sell. Most younger buyers have no chance of buying at the current interest rates, they can't qualify. Older, relatively intelligent people will not buy right now, because they won't pay the current rate for a home. I paid the current rate, about 30 years ago. I refuse to sell my house now, despite wanting to move, because I will not pay that again, even though I could make $150,000 on my house tomorrow.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 28, 2024, 09:11:06 AM
One thing driving the prices in Idaho, particularly the Treasure Valley where we were, is people from California with cash. So long as they can sell their California home then interest rates are not an issue when they can buy another cheaper one for cash in Idaho. Prices in Idaho are still nearly twice what they are here on the fringes of the Metroplex.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 28, 2024, 09:17:47 AM
We considered buying in Oklahoma, just north of where we are now. Prices are better, property taxes are lower. But, Oklahoma has a state income tax and the sales tax is about 9.3% including groceries.
Oldest daughter is still planning to move here from Pend Oreille area in the next year. A place like this one in OK would be over a million in Idaho.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Eagler on April 28, 2024, 09:31:53 AM
A nice overall crash on just about everything is needed and is what the fed was trying to do but with government passing bills to spend billions on wars and illegal immigrants, that market correction has never been allowed to happen.
No one has the stomach to allow the pain needed for a healthier financial future these days...too busy selling the country out for their next election victory....
Term limits would do wonders imo but the dc ghouls will never vote that on themselves...country is toast imo...just look at the two clowns we have to choose from in 7 months..lol
Eagler
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 28, 2024, 09:38:59 AM
A crash happened in 2008 but was arrested because institutions were too big to fail. A crash allowed to run its course will see our nation changed in ways we cannot foresee. We don't exist in a vacuum either. We have enemies.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 09:51:42 AM
Of course government spending affects inflation..how can pumping printed billions into the system monthly not affect it...
I think they have to keep the train wreck going at this point...from handing out trillions in cough covid $$$ to those that didn't need it to financing every war on the globe..
Stop the spending so you can stop the borrowing, living within your means allows one not to worry about interest charged but can celebrate interest earned on safe investments..
Eagler
2 different worlds.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 09:54:48 AM
A nice overall crash on just about everything is needed and is what the fed was trying to do but with government passing bills to spend billions on wars and illegal immigrants, that market correction has never been allowed to happen.
No one has the stomach to allow the pain needed for a healthier financial future these days...too busy selling the country out for their next election victory....
Term limits would do wonders imo but the dc ghouls will never vote that on themselves...country is toast imo...just look at the two clowns we have to choose from in 7 months..lol
Eagler
Keep in mind 4 companies own 90% of food production.
Many companies are using inflation to gouge you more. Every company is making record profits. Yes there is inflation, but gouging is going on on top of it.
Big oil made 84 billion profit
Also; Since the tax scam, instead of a 3k tax return, I PAY 3k. 6k difference.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 28, 2024, 10:13:32 AM
The Soviets provided housing for everyone early on. Most lived in apartments shared with other families. This is not what our youth envision today. They imagine the same standard of living when they lived at home and enough free time to socialize however and as often as they like. In the Soviet Union everyone worked. It was illegal not to. Not everyone liked their job.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 10:20:35 AM
Denmark rated as happiest country in the world.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Eagler on April 28, 2024, 10:35:06 AM
And raising interest rates has been about the only weapon that has worked in the past to somewhat control everyone's spending for a time but with the government now over $34 trillion in debt and climbing by a trillion at record speed, high rates are a bad thing...
It's not the high rates but the uncontrollable and unsustainable printing and spending of dollars out of thin air...
High rates should mean lower prices..
Very glad we are the best turd in the toilet at the moment which keeps the dollar as top dog...
As soon as that changes America is over as civil unrest takes over in a blink of an eye..
... removing the 10 sec of politics in that clip the rest is common sense..
Eagler
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 28, 2024, 11:04:17 AM
One thing driving the prices in Idaho, particularly the Treasure Valley where we were, is people from California with cash. So long as they can sell their California home then interest rates are not an issue when they can buy another cheaper one for cash in Idaho. Prices in Idaho are still nearly twice what they are here on the fringes of the Metroplex.
The exodus from the most expensive states with the highest tax burdens is absolutely causing the high house costs in other states. Moving from CA to TN will allow you to more than double your house size while still spending less than 70% of what your CA house sold for.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 28, 2024, 11:15:48 AM
A nice overall crash on just about everything is needed and is what the fed was trying to do but with government passing bills to spend billions on wars and illegal immigrants, that market correction has never been allowed to happen.
No one has the stomach to allow the pain needed for a healthier financial future these days...too busy selling the country out for their next election victory....
Term limits would do wonders imo but the dc ghouls will never vote that on themselves...country is toast imo...just look at the two clowns we have to choose from in 7 months..lol
Eagler
Even after a crash, the inflation driven price never return to their pre-inflation levels. There's just a mass number of bankruptcies and high levels of unemployment.
You're never going to bring prices back down substantially. Some commodities will drop. You can bring energy costs back down.
What can be done with a massive reduction in government spending, and in regulation, is a significant reduction in the rate of inflation, and an increase in wage growth.
Of course, those moves are going to be extremely difficult. Slashing entitlement spending will unleash cries of agony. But it requires a massive slashing. Then when you reverse the green stupidity, there will be more screams of agony.
People are ignoring other things the government is doing. For example, the forced production of electric vehicles has a huge cost. Ford posted a massive loss, that calculates to $130,000 lost on every electric vehicle produced and sold. The rest of the industry is in the same place. They're making up some of the difference elsewhere. That's driving other prices.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Eagler on April 28, 2024, 11:46:24 AM
Agree 100 % Savage
Prices will not go back to 2020 prices regardless who runs the dc show...but to slow the increase higher rates are needed
It's the only arrow left in the quiver and they need the higher rates to have that as a recovery tool so when there is a real financial need to lower them not just to keep a bloated marketing chugging higher...
Eagler
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 28, 2024, 12:10:28 PM
Prices will not go back to 2020 prices regardless who runs the dc show...but to slow the increase higher rates are needed
It's the only arrow left in the quiver and they need the higher rates to have that as a recovery tool so when there is a real financial need to lower them not just to keep a bloated marketing chugging higher...
Eagler
They've driven the interest rates to exceed 7% for prime business. It has not resolved the problem. The GDP just failed to meet target, and inflation is accelerating again. The proposed tax increases will now cause wages to fall even further behind. The increased interest rates have not had a real effect on inflation, they've long since passed the point of diminishing returns on any effect they might have ever had.
You're now killing the ability of the younger generation to own a home and begin to build wealth. They'll soon become disinterested in doing anything to improve their situation, because they see no way forward. They can't save money, prices are too high. They can't build wealth, their wages are falling behind. They can't own a home, they can't afford the payments at 7%+ interest rates. You're literally driving it to the point of no return.
You cannot "save" the economy by making a bigger train wreck of it. The interest rate is an artificial factor driven purely by government interference in the economy. Government interference in the economy has been a detrimental factor, especially when the economy is in crisis.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 12:19:53 PM
They've driven the interest rates to exceed 7% for prime business. It has not resolved the problem. The GDP just failed to meet target, and inflation is accelerating again. The proposed tax increases will now cause wages to fall even further behind. The increased interest rates have not had a real effect on inflation, they've long since passed the point of diminishing returns on any effect they might have ever had.
You're now killing the ability of the younger generation to own a home and begin to build wealth. They'll soon become disinterested in doing anything to improve their situation, because they see no way forward. They can't save money, prices are too high. They can't build wealth, their wages are falling behind. They can't own a home, they can't afford the payments at 7%+ interest rates. You're literally driving it to the point of no return.
You cannot "save" the economy by making a bigger train wreck of it. The interest rate is an artificial factor driven purely by government interference in the economy. Government interference in the economy has been a detrimental factor, especially when the economy is in crisis.
Sorry, but the top paragraph is not true, many charts show this.
Again, sorry, but some in this thread do not understand economy, they are guessing their way through it with a twist of political bias.
Some are far off the mark. Its just truth, no offense intended
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 28, 2024, 01:37:42 PM
Sorry, but the top paragraph is not true, many charts show this.
Again, sorry, but some in this thread do not understand economy, they are guessing their way through it with a twist of political bias.
Some are far off the mark. Its just truth, no offense intended
The top paragraph is absolute FACT. The prime interest rate is over 7%. The GDP missed the target as of the most recent report, it fell short by at least 20%. The inflation rate increased, by about 40% over their projections. It did so for the 3rd month in a row. It increased so much that despite political pressure, the Fed postponed even consideration of an interest rate decrease until September. Nothing about the economy meets their bogus projections, nor claims that it is strong, or moving in the correct direction.
Dispute those facts. They're published as of 4/26/24. The facts do not care about your politics, even your leftist bent.
As a student of Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell, (both Nobel winning economists) and Arthur Laffer, among others, I have a rock solid grasp on economics.
When the economy is actually doing well, you do not have to lie to the public. Their wallet, their refrigerator, and their bank accounts tell them.
You've brought nothing to the discussion. At all.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: LCADolby on April 28, 2024, 02:17:50 PM
Government spending has little, or no, effect on inflation, consumers do, exceeding supply. Interest rates forces you to stop buying so much. Why consumers? Because they have more money to spend. Inflation or recession. Take your pick. You think spending will slow without interest rates forcing it?
Don’t over complicate it.
Same ppl didn’t mind 8 trillion on Iraq based on admitted lies of WMDs
That was quite possibly the most asinine statement I’ve had the distinct displeasure to read in a while. Were you not paying attention the last several years, especially to the knee jerk idiocy conjured up by the fed during Covid. 4-7 Trillion dollars were injected into the economy 2020-2021 damn near doubling the supply. To break it down Barney style. In2019there were 100$ and 100 apples. In 2024 there now exists 200$ and 100 apples. Is it shocking that the price per apple went from 1$ to 2$?
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 05:22:39 PM
That was quite possibly the most asinine statement I’ve had the distinct displeasure to read in a while. Were you not paying attention the last several years, especially to the knee jerk idiocy conjured up by the fed during Covid. 4-7 Trillion dollars were injected into the economy 2020-2021 damn near doubling the supply. To break it down Barney style. In2019there were 100$ and 100 apples. In 2024 there now exists 200$ and 100 apples. Is it shocking that the price per apple went from 1$ to 2$?
You don’t like it because you don’t know what you’re talking about. You talk, not listen, not learn.
If you want to blame any admin fine, lets go there. High prices and harsh inflation started under that last president, starting with the loss of 20 million jobs, many of those drive the supply chain.
Supply and demand. Learn it, love it, live it. Period.
People have more money to spend and they do so, exceeding demand. Interest rates are design to tamp down spending to within the supply window.
Want prices to go down? Stop extra spending. More people are taking vacations thsn ever before, you have more money to do so.
Wages are up, unemployment diw, too much spending.
Political talking point balloon popped.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on April 28, 2024, 05:29:21 PM
Covid came here in late 2019. We overreacted, yugely. We're paying for that now. Anyone who thought there would be no piper to pay shouldn't be allowed to vote.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 05:35:07 PM
Covid came here in late 2019. We overreacted, yugely. We're paying for that now. Anyone who thought there would be no piper to pay shouldn't be allowed to vote.
Yep. Good example, people ran out and bought 100 rolls of toilet paper, none left, price triples. Supply and demand.
Plus big companies mixing gouging with inflation to cover it up
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Chris79 on April 28, 2024, 05:40:31 PM
You don’t like it because you don’t know what you’re talking about. You talk, not listen, not learn.
If you want to blame any admin fine, lets go there. High prices and harsh inflation started under that last president, starting with the loss of 20 million jobs, many of those drive the supply chain.
Supply and demand. Learn it, love it, live it. Period.
People have more money to spend and they do so, exceeding demand. Interest rates are design to tamp down spending to within the supply window.
Want prices to go down? Stop extra spending. More people are taking vacations thsn ever before, you have more money to do so.
Wages are up, unemployment diw, too much spending.
Political talking point balloon popped.
Exactly, double the supply of currency in circulation, and jee f’n wiz, prices explode. People like yourself ought to be treated like pedos and schools. You ought to be prohibited from getting within 200 yards of a polling station.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 05:41:04 PM
Covid came here in late 2019. We overreacted, yugely. We're paying for that now. Anyone who thought there would be no piper to pay shouldn't be allowed to vote.
Nice bike btw. I’ll have to shown mine. Old skewl soft tail.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 05:42:48 PM
Exactly, double the supply of currency in circulation, and jee f’n wiz, prices explode. People like yourself ought to be treated like pedos and schools. You ought to be prohibited from getting within 200 yards of a polling station.
Bbzzzzzt! WRONG! They have nothing to do with each other. Debt and inflation, not same monkey
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Meatwad on April 28, 2024, 05:54:15 PM
Bbzzzzzt! WRONG! They have nothing to do with each other. Debt and inflation, not same monkey
Are you actually being serious, if so, Golly-geen you are bloody retarded. Well, I suppose it makes sense, you act like an idiot in the game, why should you not act like an idiot in life. I think I’m going to take Mr Samuel Langhorne Clemens advice pertaining to people such as yourself and disengage from this conversation.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Meatwad on April 28, 2024, 06:24:21 PM
Must of been a fact checker on facebook. Takes actual certified proven proof of how the economy has worked for the last 100 years and "nope, you are wrong because this is how I think it works. And if you object to me, you are at fault"
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 06:40:17 PM
Are you actually being serious, if so, Golly-geen you are bloody retarded. Well, I suppose it makes sense, you act like an idiot in the game, why should you not act like an idiot in life. I think I’m going to take Mr Samuel Langhorne Clemens advice pertaining to people such as yourself and disengage from this conversation.
NM, tired of big mouths
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Animl-AW on April 28, 2024, 06:45:36 PM
Are you actually being serious, if so, Golly-geen you are bloody retarded. Well, I suppose it makes sense, you act like an idiot in the game, why should you not act like an idiot in life. I think I’m going to take Mr Samuel Langhorne Clemens advice pertaining to people such as yourself and disengage from this conversation.
...
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 28, 2024, 07:40:45 PM
Must of been a fact checker on facebook. Takes actual certified proven proof of how the economy has worked for the last 100 years and "nope, you are wrong because this is how I think it works. And if you object to me, you are at fault"
Pretty much.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 28, 2024, 07:42:05 PM
Yer right. Debt just means ya ain’t gotta dime to your name to spend. It’s an increase of a money supply, a buttered up economy, and supply demands can inflate prices.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 28, 2024, 08:41:34 PM
Covid came here in late 2019. We overreacted, yugely. We're paying for that now. Anyone who thought there would be no piper to pay shouldn't be allowed to vote.
It was poorly handled, and there is plenty of blame to go around.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Professor_Fate on April 28, 2024, 09:00:36 PM
Sold it before moving to Texas. Wife says I'm too old for another. We'll see. ;)
I've got an '07 Night Train, stock other than paint, trim, a K&N air intake, and a MagnaFlow 2 into 1 header, and a '16 CVO Pro Street Breakout, with a Stage IV 117 kit, a Vance and Hines 2 into 1, and Custom Dynamics LED lights (not the ghetto crap).
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on April 29, 2024, 05:56:11 PM
Depending on who and how history is recorded..the last 25 years should go down as a major turning point downward into the crapper...
Eagler
The vast majority of the last 60 years. And that's if you just start with Johnson. Otherwise, a huge amount of "credit" goes to Franklin Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson, who started it, and then the rest just accelerated it by varying degrees.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: icepac on April 29, 2024, 07:54:47 PM
Sales figures are up…… because things cost more.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: RotBaron on May 01, 2024, 01:55:00 PM
No balls didn't raise rates again ... better than cutting which would be horrific
Enjoy your higher prices for everything
Eagler
It went from just over 2%, to over 7%. And after that, inflation started accelerating again. If the interest rates actually controlled it, inflation would be steady for a given interest rate, and they'd be proportional. But interest rates don't control inflation. The value of money does. They're spending again, creating debt again, and they'll print fake money again, to service the interest on the debt. Therefor, the value of the dollar falls, and you have inflation. You're dealing with a government that has not even written or passed a real budget in many years. Inflation will continue until such time as a budget is passed, spending is controlled, and the debt dealt with, at least to some extent.
Further increase of the prime rate will only serve to crash the economy, which is likely to happen anyway. The crash won't increase the value of the dollar, or even slow inflation. If there's a severe crash, it could completely destroy the dollar (as if it hasn't already) and then your dollar will be worth what Venezuelan money is worth, and you'll have their inflation rate. Keep demanding stupid high interest rates. But if you do, don't say a damned thing about the 100% inflation rate and economic collapse that results.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Eagler on May 02, 2024, 08:23:32 AM
Isn't one of the values of money being the interest rate you are charged when you borrow it?
It might not be as effective as in the 70's...see 34 trillion in debt...but high interest rates can control spending thus forcing prices lower....if you can raise rates high enough
The high rates should reduce the idiotic government spending but hasn't yet and probably won't in the future...vote buying and all those neverending wars..
We don't seem to have that ability these days so be prepared for the inflation cycle to begin again sooner than later if this is as high as he goes...
Eagler
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: AKIron on May 02, 2024, 08:38:18 AM
The high rates should reduce the idiotic government spending but hasn't yet and probably won't in the future...vote buying and all those neverending wars..
Eagler
We jumped the shark. Just a matter of how long we can delay the inevitable crash. Months or years. We'll know come November.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Maverick on May 02, 2024, 09:53:37 AM
"The high rates should reduce the idiotic government spending but hasn't yet and probably won't in the future...vote buying and all those neverending wars.."
The government isn't paying the commercial prime rate of interest like citizens who take out a loan. Since they own the bank and the printing press they get a big say on interest rates they pay. The more money they print the less valuable each dollar becomes which is inflation in a nutshell. As Senator Kennedy (LA) said earlier, right now the amount of income of the US government is just enough to take care of, and please excuse the term. entitlements like SS Medicare etc. All other government spending is done with borrowed money and run away printing presses in effect making monopoly money to pay the interest on the debt.
Also inflation is not tied to the economy, rather it is the other way around. High inflation has a chilling effect on the economy, where low inflation allows people to get the fair value of their money in goods and services.
High interest slows the economy as the cost of loans for consumers erodes the buying ability of what they can afford for housing and "big ticket items" ie cars and appliances. A low interest rate allows a family to be able to afford say a $250k home loan with a comfortable payment where as the cost of the loan on high interest limits how much they can borrow based on the payment schedule and may limit their loan to $150k. If you use a loan amortization program / app you can change the interest rate and watch the impact on payments (P&I)
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: Captain Virgil Hilts on May 03, 2024, 06:26:38 PM
Consumer spending does not drive inflation the government spending does. Not even close. The reason is that ALL government spending now is debt, and drives the dollar down in value.
Oh, the jobs report shows they missed projections by 50%. That's massive. The economy is slowing, but inflation is not. They're actually talking about take a half percent off the prime rate because the GDP is dead and so are jobs.
It's actually inflation that's killing the economy now, but the interest rates aren't helping.
Title: Re: Stagflation
Post by: RotBaron on May 03, 2024, 08:39:37 PM
Yep opposite world where good news is bad news and bad news is good news or whatever the latest manipulation is required to keep stocks and most prices at inflated records...
I expect a drop in rates between now and November for the obvious affect..