Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Wlfgng on November 12, 2002, 03:11:51 PM
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I think not...
I used to think he was but figured he come out of hiding by now to make some 'great' statement.
he's toast IMO
Bin Laden that is..
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Yeah, note the voice was reported as "similiar too" Bin Laden.
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Can't we check through voice printing?
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He's dead. Blown into little bits or buried unter 50 metric tons of rock.
The last confirmed 'sighting' of him was in the Tora Bora area in early December. Very shortly after that Tora Bora got pounded harder than 99% of the people in this world can fathom. They set off a BLU-82 over the primary valley just to say 'here we come boys'. The entire area got absolutely hammered then swept with a brush consisting of a wave of very highly trained infantry.
More importantly...as the saying goes..."terrorism is 50% operations and 50% propoganda".
It would be very easy for him to make a video tape that provided easy to veryify and incontrovertable evidence that he was still alive *today* without risking his safety and/or risking detection in any way whatsoever. And if he did this it would be a massive Al-Q victory. Financial support and recruits would become available to his 'cause' on a massive scale. If he were alive, he'd be stupid to *not* make such a tape.
Furhtermore, Al-Q has already undergone 2+ 'operational' regorganizations in the past 6 months alone. There's a top 10 list of 'who is most crucial to Al-Q in terms of running successful operations/who is most crucial to Al-Q in terms of accquiring support/etc.' that's updated by all the good guy CT groups worldwide on a fairly regular basis. Bin Laden hasn't been on that list since last January.
He's dead.
Mike/wulfie
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He is dead.
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personally, IMO, ifn i was GWB i wouldn't admit to Binladen being dead till oh less see hmmm , about october, 2004, and then say we had just found and taken him out.
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exactly what I'd do too.
I wouldn't let everyone know officialy that he's dead.
too easy to lose some support that way.
IMO he's toast for all the reasons above.
as for the fine=toothed-comb comment, me thinks you put a little too much trust in the US's abilities.
Those mountains are incredible. One could hide there almost forever without being located.
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Originally posted by wulfie
They set off a BLU-82 over the primary valley just to say 'here we come boys'.
Is that a fuel-air device? Or is that the big bellybutton bomb they drop out of the back of a C4?
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Wlfgng, I can't get into much detail here as far as verification of data goes. Trust me on a couple of things:
1. The sweep was conducted by really good troops, and alot of them were non-U.S. troops.
2. The sweep was far more successful than it has been reported to be by most media outlets. This is probably due to the media not being allowed to do certain things to 'verify facts'. There are alot of dead Al-Q fighters buried in caves but because there's no way to 'count' how many are buried you aren't going to read about them in a news report on the relevant battle(s).
3. A native to that area (14,000' high up in the mountains), if he was hiding alone, in a totally natural and fairly small cave, could hide fairly well. However, the majority of the Al-Q targeted in the sweep (99% or more) were in no way native to that terrain (at least 20% were Chechen for example). The caves they were in were highly developed fortifications. Once those fortifications started falling in general the 1st tier Al-Q fighters (very very worthy foes by the way) ran as fast as they could for the border. Alot of them died running before they reached the border. This is a good thing. Most of the 1st tier Al-Q 'tactical' operators have special forces type training and combat experience. In general they got killed because they broke contact too late - they didn't realize how well they could be tracked, pursued, and targeted - even in that terrain. Their idea of our capabilities in those departments was based on analyis of the '91 war vs. Iraq, Somalia, Kosovo, Bosnia, etc. They underestimated the opposition in those departments by roughly a factor of 10.
Mike/wulfie
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Curval, it's the big brick of explosives. FAE were off limits due to the close proximity of friendly forces. That BLU-82 was a one-time deal, used during a period of time when we had no friendly units in the area.
Mike/wulfie
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Dead. Or too scared to stick his head out of his hidey hole. Either way, he got the point. And dont think they didn't notice over there.
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US State Dept. just said it was his voice.
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audio tape instead of video tape ?
If this son of a pig is really still alive , he probably has altered his appearance , and wants to keep his new face hidden.
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yeah.. he could be anyone....................... ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. .................
anywere
Like Elvis.
or Ripsnort
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I think all Arabs should have to register thier voices.
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I'd have a hard time believing he would use video to show himself as well,(location give away, or appearance due to disguise or health.)
But couldn't they at least get decent audio in 2002, at least as good as an AH vox transmission from Fatty and his hideous computer mic setup? It sounded pretty awful or has someone a heard a good recording on the news?
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Hard to hide his height..He is very tall for any middle eastern type.
I hope his new nose falls off. He also needs Dialysis.
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I'm pretty sure he's working at 7-11
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The BLU-82 is a 15,000 pound GP bomb originally designed to clear helicopter landing zones in Vietnam. The warhead contains 12,600 pounds of GSX slurry and is detonated just above ground level by a 38-inch fuze extender. The weapon produces an overpressure of 1,000 pounds per square inch. Eleven BLU-82s were dropped during Desert Storm, all from Special Operations MC-130s. The initial drops were intended to test the ability of the bomb to clear mines; no reliable bomb damage assessment exist on mine clearing effectiveness. Later, bombs were dropped as much for their psychological effect as for their destructive power.
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the worst thing is that he might have been naked when he recorded the tape
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"Officials believe bin Laden would release an audio recording, instead of a video, because they are easier to make and limit his public exposure, the U.S. official said. An audio tape also hides an appearance of illness, and anything bin Laden might have done to disguise himself in the last year."
well if he is alive this would be a valid reason for the tape.
Box
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I'm pretty sure he's working at 7-11
LOL
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hehe... seriously... I stopped by for a java this morning and whoa...