Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: funkedup on November 29, 2002, 08:55:16 PM
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I read a magazine called The Economist which tracks economic statistics. It seems to me that our GDP and unemployment figures, while not optimal, are still pretty dang good. The only statistic that is really ugly is the Dow, and we are now in our 8th consecutive week of growth in the dow, the biggest 2 month gain in 15 years. Is it possible that the media and their political masters have exaggerated the economic problems?
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From my view of the economy no.
I'm in truck repair. Air freight business is down, resturant business is down etc. etc.
Thought a bread and butter account ( 35 trucks ) was taking there business elsewhere. By doing an inhouse computer printout of there trucks I found that they just were not putting in the miles per truck that they used too. By a loooong shot. Produce company that supplys resturants.
Shipping is down, people eating out is down.
Real from this end.
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Economy sucks real, real bad from where I'm sitting.
I'm going to have to carry two jobs now just to try to make ends meet.
There are not nearly enough good jobs it seems, I just keep putting the resume out there and getting nothing back.
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Sorry to hear that Poopy and Karnak. :(
The numbers look pretty good though, so there must be some sectors doing well. Who the hell are they. :)
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The economy sucks...
Fresh outta college I looked for work for 6 months. In that time I had 3 responses and never even got an interview out of them. I've had to resort to working retail just to pay the bills, and now I'm busting my bellybutton and can barely make ends meet.
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Welcome to the "bad old days", shades of the 80's.
I'll refrain from pointing out the common denominator between the 80's and present. :p
I'm thankful I'm self employed, so far the downward economic spiral hasn't affected me.
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Originally posted by weazel
Welcome to the "bad old days", shades of the 80's.
I'll refrain from pointing out the common denominator between the 80's and present. :p
whats jimmy carter have to do with the present? stop picking on that old man.
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Yep and why bring up Ken Lay. He did all his crimes on Bubba's watch. He didn't get busted until the new sherrif came to town.
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The economy has to recover from 5 straight years of bad investing. Maybe its time for sense to prevail again.. at least for another 10 years.
AKDejaVu
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Well going by this thread, unemployment is about 50%. But for the whole US it's not so bad. It's been better in the past, but looking at the last 25 years, I wouldn't say it's too high. And the trend is downward currently.
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What about inflation?
Looks like a pretty steady rise, no big fluctuation. Certainly better than most countries around the world.
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OK, more people are unemployed, and prices are going up as normal. But isn't there less money going around per person?
No. Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita (which is the best statistical measure of our material standard of living) continues to rise. Look at the chart below.
The last two figures on the chart are:
2000 $33,525
2001 $33,568
Even in the terrible year of 2001, our standard of living still rose.
The 2002 final figures are not out, but the growth rates in Real GDP have been more than twice those in 2001. So barring greatly acclerated population growth, the 2002 Real GDP per Capita will rise yet again.
So the question remains: Other than the stock market, how is the economy doing badly? Why so much noise by the media and politicians?
I think that considering the fall of the stock market, which is largely attributable to foolish or illegal behavior which occured on Bubba's watch, the economy is doing incredibly well. It makes me proud to be an American.
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Figure for last post.
(Yes I had the day off. :) )
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another way of looking at could be 0.1% GDP growth is only $44 better than recession (add in the weakening dollar & it is recession) & unemployment is the same as late in the carter administration. thats pretty odd spin coming from the economist which is usually a very accurate & honest publication. normally anything less than 1% GDP growth is considered weak
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I'm talking per capita real GDP here, so any growth is a benefit. It doesn't have to grow to maintain the standard of living.
And these statistics I'm posting are from the government, not from the Economist, which did not put any particular spin on it. But looking at the figures each week in the back of the Economist (they have a big stats section), makes you wonder what all the hubbub is about.
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if the value of the dollar is shrinking then growth is needed to maintain standard of living.
government statistics are notorioulsy unreliable, as the methods used to calculate them are regularly changed.
in a post industrial economy innovation and competition are supposed to create an environment in which the value of each individual unit of labour is constantly growning. one of the basic ideas of capitalism, per Adam Smith, is that all wealth is the result of (is created by) labour. thus if standard of living measurments are not constantly increasing significantly them something is going wrong.
my own theory is that all the false wealth of the stockmarket boom is now being created post facto, and so is not impacting the current economy
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It's still down for me . At my Co we make auto parts and have work 4 days a week for 5 out of the last 7 weeks because of no orders .
But on the bright side I have the most kills last and this tour that I have ever had in AH . WTG Bush , :( Oh yes I do blame him .
lol no worrres can live on 3 days easy as am older and home etc all paid for and money set aside etc . But for many younger workers at my shop with small ones and big home morgage it tough and am sure Christmas will not be better this year .
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WHGATES - When an economic figure is expressed in "real dollars" it means that it is adjusted for the CPI (inflation). Shrinkage in the value of the dollar is built into the statistic. I'm sure there are some flaws in Real GDP per Capita, but it is a pretty solid yardstick.
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Manufacturing is weak right across the Western world, I believe.
Over here in Brit-land we have the lowest interest rates in post-war times an everyone is borrowing like there is no tomorrow. As a result, house prices are extremely high and there's been an average 14% increase in the last year - in some place this has been more like 30%. But with first time buyers now being unable to buy, the market is slowing down in the South (where prices are highest).
Unemployment is at a very low level (1.7%).
Consumer spending and borrowering is high.
No-one is saving any money.
I've just bought a brand new apartment (my first place :)) so I'm hoping interest rates stick at this level or only rise a couple of tenths of a percent.
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Weazel, you're stepping outside your prepared quotes and it may get you into trouble. Even The Nation could not try to compare 5% unemployment to the double digit rates of the early 80s.
All things considered I'm pretty pleased to see the beginning of the backside of a recession that could have been pretty ugly but in actuality peaked out at under 6% unemployment.
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Originally posted by Soulyss
The economy sucks...
Fresh outta college I looked for work for 6 months. In that time I had 3 responses and never even got an interview out of them. I've had to resort to working retail just to pay the bills, and now I'm busting my bellybutton and can barely make ends meet.
Face it Soulyss, you messed up mate. I have a degree in Foreign Language (Spanish) from Auburn University. Shoulda taken a civil service exam after graduating, but became an artist instead. Did that for 20 years...haven't used the Spanish degree to get a job. May have to one of these days. But I tell you one thing Soulyss, being an artist is probably one of the most noble efforts a man can make, and that's why I try.
You seem to think like an artist in some ways. The important thing is to get the degree...doesn't matter what it's in.
Les
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one thing to consider when saying 'unemployment isn't that bad' is that the figures published usually are those recieving unemployment benifits. so those who have lost their jobs then their benifits ran out, so they are no longer on the unemployment rolls don't count. after your 6 months unemployment runs out you are generally considered unemployed by choice, just like those who where fired or quit their jobs. so if you starve people out long enough they don't figure into the statistics.
I guess if you haven't lost your job yet and you didn't have your life savings in the market, then the economy is great (some really great prices at the pawn shops, a real buyers market)
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the figures published usually are those recieving unemployment benifits.
False.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
I guess if you haven't lost your job yet and you didn't have your life savings in the market, then the economy is great
Likewise, when I was laid off during the supposed booming economy under Clinton, I guess that must have been a recession. :rolleyes:
My friends and family are all doing very well right now. People are taking advantage of low interest rates and low prices to buy new cars and houses for the first time. At my work we just landed the biggest contract in the history of the company. I can only think of one guy I know who is having trouble getting a job. And this is in the SF Bay Area, one of the areas hardest hit by the collapse of high-tech firms.
My point:
If we can't come up with ways of measuring the health of the economy as a whole, then there is no point in even discussing it. All we can offer are personal observations about our own condition and those we know personally, which is just an insignificant sliver of the big pie.
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What are interest rates like over in the US? What's the typical APR on a mortgage over there?
Strangely enough, before I started this house buying business, I couldn't give a rat's bellybutton about the state of the economy. Now, I'm fascinated by it. :)
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Working on a close right now at 6%, had a shot at 5.75 but waited too long.
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Holy toejam....Fatty is buying a house?!?!
Damn...you arent gonna get all responsible now are you?
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huh? No, I'm purchasing a concubine.
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"Kenny-Boy" get busted?
Seems to me he did a crime...but with his pal in the White House watching his back he won't do any time will he?
Chimpy a sheriff?
BWAHAHAHA...you should be a stand up comic funked, I didn't know they handed out badges to crooks.
Originally posted by funkedup
Yep and why bring up Ken Lay. He did all his crimes on Bubba's watch. He didn't get busted until the new sherrif came to town.
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Interesting, I work in South San Francisco just north of SFO. I can tell you how the economy is locally by just walking out in front of the shop.
Take offs are down at the airport, traffic on the street where the shop is located is down. The traffic going to and from work is down. The overnight messages for breakdowns are down. Snap-on and Mac dealers tell a story of all the local shops being empty.
We're treading water, busy but not busy enough..
When you can't back up onto the street from the shop driveways you know things be booming ;) A year ago you were looking at 3 days minimum before we could even get your truck in the shop...
It was crazy, but put a smile on the old mans face.
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Originally posted by funkedup
WHGATES - When an economic figure is expressed in "real dollars" it means that it is adjusted for the CPI (inflation). Shrinkage in the value of the dollar is built into the statistic. I'm sure there are some flaws in Real GDP per Capita, but it is a pretty solid yardstick.
the built in shrinkage is to account for the goverment's underestimate infaltion figures & in no way accounts for the $ shrinking against foreign currencies.
cheap borrowing makes real estate such a popular investment that it artificially inflates the market prices of the real estate by increasing the investor pool. in a few years the stock market will pick back up & the excess capital will slosh back there. it is quite likely that a lot of $200,000 houses are being bought right now that will be worth $150,000 in five years, and the owners still owe $170,000 on the 30 year loan
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Oh yeah, we're in "good hands" aren't we?
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Weazel it would probably be wise to wait a little bit longer to post that picture and maybe people will have forgotten that the rebates were a compromise to democrats.
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Fatty, you're going to ruin Weazel as entertainment value. Let him spew.
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Those mean ol' nasty demmycrats, always looking out for the common man....why just think how much larger the corporate hand outs could have been without them. :rolleyes:
Gee toad, I'm really sorry I don't seem to fit in the "master race" republican world.
Originally posted by Fatty
Weazel it would probably be wise to wait a little bit longer to post that picture and maybe people will have forgotten that the rebates were a compromise to democrats.
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Ah, Weazel, don't be sorry about that... that's not important at all.
Just rejoice that you fit in with all the hate mongers that can't control their urge to spew unsupported accusations.
:D
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So now you think the rebates were a good idea Weazel? Because your picture seems to indicate you did not (or were told to think they were not).
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Hmmm, I don't see any unsupported accusations in this thread. :D
Who do I hate anyway?
Ya know, I really expected you to be one of the people who "get" me, so far there is one republican on this UBB who understands the intent behind most of my posts.
C'mon, take it out of neutral and use that keen intellect of yours. ;)
Originally posted by Toad
Ah, Weazel, don't be sorry about that... that's not important at all.
Just rejoice that you fit in with all the hate mongers that can't control their urge to spew unsupported accusations.
:D
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Ah.. the "I'm so misunderstood because I'm so complex" syndrome.
Its not the rest of the world's fault your misunderstood weazel.
AKDejaVu
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The peanut gallery aren't relevant.
There's nothing complex about it, your just not intelligent enough to make that leap.
Next. :D
Originally posted by AKDejaVu
Ah.. the "I'm so misunderstood because I'm so complex" syndrome.
Its not the rest of the world's fault your misunderstood weazel.
AKDejaVu
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Doesn't that reply fall under the "have to resort to insults because there's really nothing else you can say" category weazel?
All this coming from a guy that basis his views on cartoons.
AKDejaVu
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Based on your comment it was appropriate.
If I had a "cartoon" of a guy with his finger up his nose I would add it below. :p
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Originally posted by weazel
Ya know, I really expected you to be one of the people who "get" me, so far there is one republican on this UBB who understands the intent behind most of my posts.
Oh, I "get" you, I think.
Like that guy 10Bears always used to link us to; that guy thought insults and childish name-changing could substitute for facts and rational, thought out arguments as well.
I think you're just like him.
I think you could be an enlightening contributor to a lot of these BBS threads. You apparently choose instead to be someone much less interesting.
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Originally posted by weazel
Those mean ol' nasty demmycrats, always looking out for the common man...
thats as facetious as anything the brainwashed conservative wannabes have posted
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Originally posted by whgates3
cheap borrowing makes real estate such a popular investment that it artificially inflates the market prices of the real estate by increasing the investor pool. in a few years the stock market will pick back up & the excess capital will slosh back there. it is quite likely that a lot of $200,000 houses are being bought right now that will be worth $150,000 in five years, and the owners still owe $170,000 on the 30 year loan
I got to say this is my take too . I bought a second home for my Mom when 4 years ago when they were a little cheaper . Last July I uped my 401 k when everyone was squeaking about how bad the market was .
Some better beware cause the real estate marker can do a real hurt on ya's . Farm ground here in 83 was 2500 a acre , a few years later , it went for 1100 at much cheaper interest rates . But try and go back to the bank and get those :) , lol .
And no I don't farm , but my Dad did , he sold and retired back then .
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Nope, still in neutral.
It was supposed to be facetious whgates. ;)
Originally posted by Toad
Oh, I "get" you, I think.
Like that guy 10Bears always used to link us to; that guy thought insults and childish name-changing could substitute for facts and rational, thought out arguments as well.
I think you're just like him.
I think you could be an enlightening contributor to a lot of these BBS threads. You apparently choose instead to be someone much less interesting.
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You never have quite clarified your position on those rebates there, weazel.
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Originally posted by whgates3
the built in shrinkage is to account for the goverment's underestimate infaltion figures & in no way accounts for the $ shrinking against foreign currencies.
In short, NO. :)
You're going to have to prove the bit about inflation being underestimated. Many economists argue that CPI overestimates inflation.
And some of the items that go into the CPI "shopping basket" are imports (or have imported inputs), so exchange rates DO have an effect on CPI.
And foreign currency exchange rates do have an effect on GDP. One component of GDP is net exports (exports minus imports), which is most definitely affected by exchange rates. In fact, ceteris paribus, a weaker dollar will increase net exports and thereby increase GDP.
But, it's not like the dollar is doing poorly vs. other currencies. Look at the charts below. If anything the dollar has increased its buying power in other countries since the "depression" started.
So changes in foreign currency exchange rates have not negated the gains we continue to make in Real GDP per Capita. It remains a pretty darn good yardstick of our standard of living.
(http://www.raf303.org/funked/trade.gif)
(http://www.raf303.org/funked/canuck.gif)
(http://www.raf303.org/funked/euro.gif)
(http://www.raf303.org/funked/canuck.gif)
(http://www.raf303.org/funked/pound.gif)
(http://www.raf303.org/funked/taiwan.gif)
(http://www.raf303.org/funked/yen.gif)
(http://www.raf303.org/funked/yuan.gif)
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how long till your guy and your system makes it better ? you got all the power any predictions?
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Originally posted by funkedup
Sorry to hear that Poopy and Karnak. :(
The numbers look pretty good though, so there must be some sectors doing well. Who the hell are they. :)
Health Care Industry, Drug Companies, Automotive (up 'n down but on the balance not to bad), to name a few.
A large chunk of this recession was precipitated by the telecom meltdown. When all those dot coms and later certain larger services providers went swirling down the bowl, that had a drastic effect on huge chunks of the Tech Manufacturing Sector. Then things just rippled from there. Wonder why Lucent is trading at 2.60 a share? that's part of the answer.
DuBe
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Originally posted by funkedup
In short, NO. :)
So changes in foreign currency exchange rates have not negated the gains we continue to make in Real GDP per Capita. It remains a pretty darn good yardstick of our standard of living.
Funkedup, your post are interesting and provide good data. Things in general aren't terrible but the question is: What next?
Large chucks of manufacturing capacity sitting idle (or worse liquidated) does not portend well for the future. When this situation turns around, I'll tend to be more optomistic. But not until then. Manufacturing is still the backbone of this economy, and tech appears to have some significant growth potential (albeit not 20% per year, that's for sure). When tech manufacturing makes some form of comeback I think we'll see a better climate in general.
DuBe
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The real problem is the majority of workers and small bidness ppl dont have any confindence in the Adminstration in the White House. We've seen it before. Deficit spending is back, while taxes are cut and a 1.6 trillion dollar surplus has vanished, all in a little under two years. I am not an economist, but I have very little confidence the economy is going to improve in two years. Just think..a Republican House Senate and White House can claim credit for it all.
HC
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Originally posted by lord dolf vader
how long till your guy and your system makes it better ? you got all the power any predictions?
Well I'm not a Republican so I can't answer the question.
But looking at the statistics, it is already getting better. GDP going up, unemployment dropping, longest streak of Dow gains in 15 years.
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I dont believe the economy is in such a poor state either excluding the fact that a major war could be imminent sometime soon. With the fedral gov sending money elsewhere that will definately make things worse.
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Originally posted by hardcase
The real problem is the majority of workers and small bidness ppl dont have any confindence in the Adminstration in the White House.
HC
What do you base this on, the last election ?
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Originally posted by Krusher
What do you base this on, the last election ?
hehe - good one
1.6 trillion dollar surplus has vanished
was this a room full of dollars or just figures scribbled on paper by a previous admin based of an economy running inside a bubble which would never burst :rolleyes:
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Originally posted by DuBe
Funkedup, your post are interesting and provide good data. Things in general aren't terrible but the question is: What next?
Large chucks of manufacturing capacity sitting idle (or worse liquidated) does not portend well for the future. When this situation turns around, I'll tend to be more optomistic. But not until then. Manufacturing is still the backbone of this economy, and tech appears to have some significant growth potential (albeit not 20% per year, that's for sure). When tech manufacturing makes some form of comeback I think we'll see a better climate in general.
DuBe
DuBe I will try to find an article about this I read in The Economist, which can explain it better than I can. Basically there is a trend towards manufacturing being a smaller and smaller part of the economy. It's very similar to what happened to agriculture in the last 100 years. Other countries are just going through this now - moving from agriculture to manufacturing as the largest part of the economy. We are beyond that, and going to "the next level" IMHO.
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RUN!
RUN FOR YOUR VERY LIVES!!!
SAVE YOURSELVES! VOTE INDEPENDENT/DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN/LIBERTARIAN!!
Oh... wait... that won't save you.....
It's the DREADED BUSINESS CYCLE!
US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html)
Seems they happen all the time...... no matter who's in the White House.
OK, you can stop running now.
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DuBe this is not the article I was thinking of (that one seems to be part of their "pay" site), but it discusses the issue:
http://fox.rollins.edu/~tlairson/tnc/manufact1.html
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Without reading this entire post, our company, in the fiscal year ending September 30th, had record sales and profits. We also have employed 200 additional people and built another plant.
Go figure?
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Originally posted by midnight Target
Without reading this entire post, our company, in the fiscal year ending September 30th, had record sales and profits. We also have employed 200 additional people and built another plant.
Go figure?
aren't you riding the same "bubble" as home sales .. i.e. low interest rate loans?
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Well maybe some, but not the major factor.
We actually got a boost from the events of 9-11 (as sad as that is to admit). People are tending to vacation in safer more traditional ways, and RV's fit nicely into that niche.
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Anyone remember Clinton's State of the Union address where he claimed recessions were a thing of the past? Hehe, you just had to chuckle at such a statement. I mean, a guy that smart had to know that wasn't true, and that he was therefore lying to the people.
...but maybe a few gullible people would believe it...
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Originally posted by Kieran
Anyone remember Clinton's State of the Union address where he claimed recessions were a thing of the past? Hehe, you just had to chuckle at such a statement. I mean, a guy that smart had to know that wasn't true, and that he was therefore lying to the people.
...but maybe a few gullible people would believe it...
There are still a few gullible people that still think HE was responsible for a good economy (Hardcase comes to mind ;) )
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I can tell you that the US economy isn't doing so well.
DK generally is doing quite good, despite of the worldwide trend. We got a demography problem, but that's another issue.
One sector that's extremely dependent on the US and the rest of the world is the IT sector. And it's not going too well. Sent in three resumes, already gotten a no on all three.
They want Java programmers with 7 years experience. Hm, how long has Java existed? They want 25 year old with 30 year of experience.
There's no one hiring the newly educated, because that means low productivity the first few months.
This sucks. I have to go clean up in old folks houses for the next 20 days. Got an education so I could get away from that toejam :/
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Perhaps HE was responsible for the confindence during the 90s that is drying up in the 2000s. I dont trust George to even consider my demographics in his policies.
HC
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
There are still a few gullible people that still think HE was responsible for a good economy (Hardcase comes to mind ;) )
But Regan could control the enconomy to wipe out the USSR?
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Originally posted by Thrawn
But Regan could control the enconomy to wipe out the USSR?
Economics and fiscal policy 101:
Reagan lobbied congress (who spends, taxes and borrows, by constitutional law) to increase military spending, and that increase convinced the Soviet Union to try to keep up, which they were unable to do due to thier vain attempts at a centralized, governmentally controlled economy.
No US President controls the US economy, it runs on its own, and responds to the collective emotion of those of us who are involved with it.
What is the value of a particular stock?
Whatever the collective emotion thinks it is, just like tulips in Holland.
Government spending, borrowing, and taxation are factors in the outlook of the people, but they are not the only factors. They can influence to some extent, but they do not control[/b] the economy. The President does not have absolute power over these three factors either.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve has a much stronger hand on the tiller of the economy, but that will be covered when we talk about monetary policy.
A much bigger influence is whether I and a million others, really want that new car or the new X Box.
End of chapter one.:rolleyes:
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Originally posted by Holden McGroin
...What is the value of a particular stock?
Whatever the collective emotion thinks it is, just like tulips in Holland....
thats the price - value is something quite different
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hang in there dood it'll come, I sent resumes out for 8 months, (March 2001-Nov 2001)had a few interviews but was a bad fit.
finding out that 200 applicants or more was the norm for the few positions that were open (this in the seattle area nerd heaven)
went into one interview up against 500 other applicants, narrowed down to 13 final people for second interview.
I got the job. oh and btw took about a 10 grand pay cut =/ it'll get better it has to.
hang in there it's a really really really hard time right now(unless you are frenchy / Damn his good luck ) and it won't stay that way long term.
Originally posted by StSanta
This sucks. I have to go clean up in old folks houses for the next 20 days. Got an education so I could get away from that toejam :/
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Pleas never try to bring news media & truth together the are diametrically opposed ! It would create an unstable mass and kill us all
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Thanks for the info Holden.
How do you know that the USSR increased military spending to keep up?
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Good ole Reagonomics, its called deficit spending and it was just dumb luck that the Soviets went under before we did, take a visit back to Woodrow Wilsons term when he caved to J.P. Morgan that about when America started the downward fall, was a great piece on PBS about it and how its tied into the WMF our own Federal reserve, the outlawing of a citizen owning gold, the Federal reserve note a whole lotta things was a great program.