Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Toad on March 08, 2003, 07:32:54 PM
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C'mon 10 Bears...
Are you confident in what you've been saying or not?
Time to throw it down... what's $45 anyway if you're SURE you're right?
C'mon, lets do it!
The Wager:
When the war does happen, Iraq (most likely Republican Guard Units) will use either chemical or biological weapons currently prohibited by the UN against the US forces. If not, it will be clearly shown on worldwide media AFTER the war that Iraq had stockpiles of these weapons that WERE NOT known to the UN inspectors prior to the war. In other words, that they're lying through their teeth about not having this stuff. I'll wager you $45 this also happens. If I win, you pay $45 to HTC to cover another 3 months subscription of the one TAS member that is in the Special Forces of the USA and is currently "in theater". If you win, I send another $45 to Ronald McDonald house and provide you either with a receipt or have them notify you it has been received in you name.
If, for some reason, the TAS member does not make it through in good enough condition to play AH, you donate the money directly to his family.
Well?
Surely Zebb or Zepp or whoever has convinced you this is a totally easy way for you to make $45?
Whadda ya say?
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Are you 100% sure this TAS member is legit?
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Toad.... er not to step in between yours and 10b's little dance... because I might get hurt ... but what of the nuke program? I can't remember if you said there'd also be evidence of this, but if so... I'm curious. What do you reckon the Iraq nuke program (if/when it's unearthed) amounts to? In September Bush said Iraq was 6 months away from developing a nuclear weapon (at the time it seemed to be *the* motivating factor for an attack). To what degree do you think we'll see evidence of this?
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Well, Grun, in a word, yes.
His last deployment he gave us an APO address that included his SF unit. I sent some stuff to that APO and he didn't know what I sent. He e-mailed back that he had got it and particulary enjoyed say... the Kudo bars.
This, in addition to one or two other things I'm not going to mention here. You ask WpnX when he gets back, OK?
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Nash, 10Bears used a "nuke issue" diversion last time I asked him if he was sure enough that Iraq didn't have WMD to bet a small amount of his pocket change on his opinion. So, this time I left it out, trying to get the wager down.
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As far as my opinion on their nuke program? I personally think they're pretty dang close. At the end of the 1st Gulf War, general estimates were that they were between 3 years to as little as 6 months from their first test. That was 12 years ago.
Anyone who thinks they haven't been clandestinely trying to get weapons and parts in for any number of different weapons systems hasn't been paying attention. I'm sure the nuke program was one of them.
Have they kept up their nuke program? I'd wager the ranch that the answer is yes. Have they been able to cover the remaining ground in the last 12 years? Intuition says they're undoubtedly much, much closer. So is 6 months a reasonable estimate from September? I'd say it's probably close enough to draw serious attention.
Ya know, Governments don't always tell everything they know. Mainly, cause it scares the crap outta folks and/or if the enemy then changes plans the government would look unreliable. One of the reasons Bush might be in a real hurry is that we have solid intel that they are REALLY close.
Not to go into the black helo/tinfoil hat syndrome, but it sort of would explain why the US and GB are willing to fall on their collective swords at the SC to get this thing going, wouldn't it?
Because personally, I think they could back the SC into a corner on this by Fall and go then if Iraq is not in compliance. You get Blix to make up a detailed "no sh*tter" list of stuff that has to be done in order of importance and put a "no later than" date on each item. Then you say "if ANY of this stuff isn't done by the respective date, we go."
Obviously, they don't want to wait that long. So, could nukes be a reason? Yeah, or it could be something else. :D
Like any other civilian, I don't know for sure. Folks I trust, folks I worked with still in the biz tell me "it's time to go... no sh*t" and that's good enough for me.
Is that an answer?
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Now Toad,
You said it would take up to a year to find the stuff that’s how long the bet would be right?
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2003/mar2003/bush-m08.shtml
Bush declared in his opening statement: "Iraqi operatives continue to hide biological and chemical agents to
avoid detection by inspectors. In some cases, these materials have been moved to different locations every 12
to 24 hours or placed in vehicles that are in residential neighborhoods."
This claim, which simply repeats allegations made by Secretary of State Colin Powell in his disastrous
presentation to the United Nations last month, was again refuted by Blix in his Friday report to the Security
Council.
"As I noted on 14 February," Blix stated, "intelligence authorities have claimed that weapons of mass
destruction are moved around Iraq by trucks and, in particular, that there are mobile production units for
biological weapons. The Iraqi side states that such activities do not exist. Several inspections have taken
place at declared and undeclared sites in relation to mobile production facilities. Food and mobile workshops
have been seen, as well as large containers with seed processing equipment. No evidence of proscribed
activities has so far been found" (emphasis added).
Bush also declared, "We know from multiple intelligence sources that Iraqi weapons scientists continue to be
threatened with harm should they cooperate with UN inspectors." This claim was also challenged by Blix the
following morning. "In the last month," he stated, "Iraq has provided us with the names of many persons who may
be relevant sources of information, in particular, persons who took part in various phases of the unilateral
destruction of biological and chemical weapons and proscribed missiles in 1991."
While acknowledging that the interview process was not free of problems, Blix noted: "the Iraq side seems to
have encouraged interviewees not to request the presence of Iraqi officials, so called minders, or the taping
of the interviews." Blix explained that the inspectors intended to request that some interviews be held outside
Iraq.
So go ahead argue with Blitz.. er Blix
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More reading for ya..
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/50401.html
phillyBurbs.com
Fallacies and War: Misleading a nervous America to the wrong conclusion.
By Dave Koehler
I love America. I feel extremely lucky to have been born in this country into a middle-class family. I get very angry when my America gets abused and my way of
life challenged by the actions of the politicians running the government. For this week’s column, I’m turning serious to discuss some of the empty arguments
given by the current administration as a pretext for war.
When facts are not available or convenient, there are many tricks one can use to present an argument. Here are a few examples of tactics the current administration is using to convince you and the world that invading Iraq is necessary.
One of the favorite methods of the current administration is a false dilemma. This is when only two choices are given when, in reality, there are more options. Right after 9/11 you heard, “You are either with us or against us,” in the fight against terrorism. Actually, countries can be both against terrorism
and not an ally of the U.S. More recently, many countries are showing that they are both against a pre-emptive war and against the current Iraqi regime.
We are also hearing we must attack Iraq or Saddam will develop weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and threaten the world if we do nothing. Other options of
monitoring with inspectors and containment are just flatly discounted. Are we to believe that Saddam could develop nuclear weapons while the world has him under a microscope?
Just recently, the President suggested the U.N. should vote for war or face irrelevance.
The U.N. will not disappear just because most of its member countries disagree with George W. Bush. If debate and disagreement spelled the end of deliberative bodies, the U.S. Congress would have vanished long ago.
Another arguing device is the argument from ignorance. This involves claiming that what hasn’t been disproven must be true. We hear Iraq hasn’t shown that they do not have WMD, therefore they do. The real burden of proof is on the
party making the claim. The U.S. and/or U.N. must prove that Iraq has WMD. It is impossible for Iraq to prove that they don’t.
An argument portraying a series of increasingly bad events is called a slippery slope. This is used effectively by gun-control opponents who suggest handgun registration will eventually lead to government confiscation of all guns. On Iraq, we hear how Saddam will develop WMDs and give them to terrorists who will
then use them on America. While this is one possible chain ofevents, it hardly justifies a pre-emptive attack on a sovereign nation.
The response to this has been that the proof or smoking gun can’t be in the form of a mushroom cloud over an American city. This is more slippery slope with a false dilemma and a whole lot of fear- mongering. There are effective ways to find proof of WMD and destroy them before it comes to such a dramatic
conclusion.
Criticizing a person or group instead of an issue is called an ad hominem attack. Thecurrent talk about France by many Americans is a perfect example. It is not only childish, it distracts from the real issues. France is not obligated to go along with every American idea because we saved them from Nazi Germany 60 years ago.
President Bush also often calls Saddam Hussein a murderous, evil man who can’t be trusted. While true, this name-calling does not prove that Saddam has any ability to threaten the world.
Another common device we are seeing is a fallacy of exclusion. Colin Powell and President Bush have both talked about aluminum tubes being used for uranium
enrichment for use in nuclear weapons. They always fail to mention that according to U.N. nuclear inspectors the tubes were actually conventional rocket artillery casings. They also mention Iraq’s use of chemical weapons against Iran in the 1980’s. They again leave out that we supported Iraq at that time in their war against Iran, and basically ignored the use of WMDs at that
time.
Colin Powell also claimed the most recent audio tape from Osama bin Laden showed a link between al Qaeda and Iraq. They have been suggesting this since 9/11, but still haven’t provided any real evidence. Osama said that he stands with the Iraqi people while referring to Hussein as an “infidel.” Also, as most
people know, the majority of the perpetrators of 9/11 were from our “ally” Saudi Arabia.
Arguing a claim is true based on someone being an expert on the subject is known as an appeal to authority. In our case, the experts are defectors from Iraq. Powell claimed defectors reported there were 18 mobile biological weapons
labs cruising around Iraq. First, these defector’s stories are suspect due to their obvious dislike of Iraq. I’m sure they would be happy to tell the U.S. what they wanted to hear if it hastened the destruction of the Iraqi regime and they could return to their homeland. More to the point, chief weapons inspector
Hans Blix said his men had examined some of the trucks and found them to be food-testing labs.
So, with out any real evidence, what’s left? Saddam is bad?
Is that all? I realize war has become relatively easy for the US, especially when we arefacing such a remarkably weak adversary and few American lives are at risk. But why war, and why now when there are still peaceful means for disarming Saddam
Hussein?
Why is the Bush Administration using these deceptive techniques to rush us into a war withIraq?
Is there any solid evidence that Iraq still processes weapons of mass destruction and has ties with terrorist groups? A few audio tapes and fuzzy satellite photos are not proof. All we hear is the same anecdotal evidence repeated over and over again.
President Bush has said that if Saddam and his generals “take innocent life, if they destroy infrastructure, they will be held accountable as war criminals.” Isn’t the United States about to take innocent life and destroy infrastructure?
There was immense goodwill for America after 9/11, with even a French newspaper proclaiming “We are all Americans!” Now America is viewed with suspicion, fear and anger. When millions of the world’s citizens protest American aggression,
why does our president just shrug?
Despite what you have been told by this administration, the ends do not justify the means. While the goals of disarming Saddam and helping Iraq become free and
democratic are certainly good, war is not the right way to make that happen. There is no imminent threat and no need to throw away international law and diplomacy. We should not risk the lives of our troops and kill thousands and thousands of Iraqi men, women and children because of one man.
Sometimes war is a horrible necessity.
This is not one of those times.
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(http://www.ilhawaii.net/~bear1/art/peace-babe.jpg)
See this lil' hippy gal?...
You want her don't you..
Well.....
We're gonna havta work on your pro rah! rah! WAR attitudes there Mr Toad..
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The $30 Bistro bounty was much funner, this is getting almost compulsive weird.
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So your're convinced there are no chem/bio weapons, right 10Bears? I mean that's the point of yer posts right?
And I think you'll be paying off about the time the allies get to Baghdad, so probably not a year. But it could be.
So, you throwing down? Gonna put up or just keep blowing smoke?
I'm in... you taking the bet? Or not?
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As fer the hippy chicks, had all of them I could ummm.. eat back in the '69- '72 time frame when I was in AFROTC and they were trying to convince me to "make love, not war". :D
And I told you.. I'm against going in w/o UN sanction.
But it's going to happen, no matter what I think, and I bet you're wrong about the chem/bio. After all, Blix has assured you. Wanna bet?
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A list of what is unaccounted for in Iraq:
48 Scud missiles and launchers
3.9 tons VX nerve gas
790 Tons of Sarin
5,300 gallons of Botulinum Toxin
2,200 gallons of Anthrax
31,658 filled and unfilled chemical munitions
550 artillery shells loaded with Mustard Gas
Design plans for nuclear weapons
600 tons of mustard gas and nerve agents
Remember, Iraq had to catalog all of its weapons and then provide proof of their destruction.
This list comes from a History Channel program "Saddam's Arsenal."
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^^^^^^
I watched it again tonight. But I'm quite sure the girl in 10bears picture has the complete low down on what is and isn't in Iraq. So there's nothing to worry about, is there?
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Ya know, looking at that girl, I think I ........ knew.......... her momma. :D
So, anyway, you going to believe Blix and take an easy $45 off me?
Come on, throw down. Your sure to win, right?
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Originally posted by Toad
Well, Grun, in a word, yes.
His last deployment he gave us an APO address that included his SF unit. I sent some stuff to that APO and he didn't know what I sent. He e-mailed back that he had got it and particulary enjoyed say... the Kudo bars.
This, in addition to one or two other things I'm not going to mention here. You ask WpnX when he gets back, OK?
Great, just making sure nobody is getting tricked again after I found out the full extent of the other story.
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It would be a heck of alot more economical to have thousands of inspectors in Iraq running around looking for weapons 24/7 than to have a massive air/ground war AND a regime change. If the U.S. doesn't maintain its technological edge (militarily but more important economically), we will really see stocks drop and the national debt rise.
Special Forces are doing a good job rounding up Bin Ladens honchos, and for that I am proud of them. I feel safe and I feel healthy, but if Bush cant lower the 'misery factor' and create a growing economy, kick his butt out. Is anyone here really afraid of Iraq? Not me.
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I'll bet anyone that Iraq(and other Arab nations) not only have nasty gas/dirty bombs,but a nuke or two...And Isreal will be the first to find this out should Iraq not comply with March 17 deadline.
Any takers?
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^^^^
Not sure what your betting here. Do you mean, Iraq will hit Isreal with a non-conventual(sp) weapon? No doubt in mine mind. The bet should be, if it happens, will Baghdad disappear in a blinding white light.
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If so, the place where Baghdad used to be will prove beyond doubt the Israelis had nukes too.
But I'd take your side of the bet.
London Sunday Times
June 18, 2000
Israeli defence sources claim the country has secretly carried out its first test launches from submarines of cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The launches last month from German-built vessels in the Indian Ocean were designed to simulate swift retaliation against a pre-emptive nuclear attack from Iran.
They'll probably even make it look like we did it.
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Israel has admitted to having nukes, but only small tactical sized warheads.
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"Is that an answer?" - Toad
Yeah Toad - more than I was looking for actually. Thanks for that reply.
It's a shame that the only thing people like you and I have to go on is supposition. Especially when weighing the invasion of a sovereign country. It sure makes me uncomfortable at least, and to this day I still don't know if I'm for or against.
I understand your point about "the government can't tell us everything". However, if anyone up there has evidence that the development of nukes is merely months away and may be as pressing as you suggest, then surely this information would be shared amongst the other governments of the UN... Which would make France et al heinously derelict in my view... and it's hard for me to imagine their comfort in placing self interests above another nation's right to defend against such a threat.
In any case, if this war turns out to be completely justified, with all of this evidence emerging after its conclusion... then I gotta say we've been witness to the most bumbling, pathetic and damaging sales job for war, both to the public and to the world's leaders that I hope we'll never see again. If it's really that bad, we shouldn't be as divided.
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Nash, your right it sux. This shouldn't need to be done at all.
You'd think people the world over would have figured this war thing out by now. There's NOT going to be any winners, only losers in varying degrees.
They absolutely did a terrible "sales job"; I agree totally. But I'm not suprised; I don't know if you were of an age to be paying close attention in '91, but THAT was a tough sell too... with Iraq already parking tanks in Kuwait. James Baker was flying around to national capitals like a deranged homing pigeon to get everyone on board. Once it got going, though, everybody jumped on the bandwagon.
I think it will turn out to be "justified" at least with respect to the UN SC resolutions and sanctions put on Iraq after GW1 and subsequent. They've got stuff they're not supposed to have and they've been hiding stuff from Blix. Count on it.
However...... lots of people have bad stuff. Lots of really bad people have bad stuff. The UN SC says nothing. And we're not invading them, are we? I hate that argument basically because it's true. But is the world ready to "take out the garbage" everywhere? Cod knows it'd make a h*ll of a lot of oppressed populations rejoice and uncountable mother's inconsolable.
What is it in humans that lets the Mugabes, the Husseins and the Kim Jong Ils rise to dictatorial positions?
I digress....
Worst case is that they go ahead and DO NOT find that stuff. Were that true, I'd be actively calling for the resignation of the whole load of them.
I really don't think that's the case, but I've been wrong before.
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Are you 100% sure this TAS member is legit?
I would bet my last cent on it Grun. When I was in TAS I was forwarded some pics from the member in question (Joe), and everything looked straight up to me. The pics were of his team doing a rubber raft insertion into a lake from a Helo.
Also, I had just been in Ft. Lewis on a course with some local Canadian PD sharpshooters, and ended up shooting with some of the US Army Rifle team members in a service rifle shoot (being run, by all things, a SQUID from the Navy). Ft. Lewis is where said member was based at the time.
This was before I was in the 13th TAS, and when I mentioned it to the member in question, he knew exactly what I was talking about and sent me his info to get in contact with him next time we were down so we could meet. Anyhow, it didn't strike me as the actions one would take if they were a make believe soldier. Besides, the fact that you don't even know who Weps is and what he does speaks volumes for the fact that he is who he is. It fits with the pattern that those who claim to be SF/Seals/Etc never are, and those who are you never hear from .
I still have the emails/pics. If you want them as proof to assure yourself Grunherz, by all means contact me by email. I certainly understand anybody's hesitation with that Voss idjits display, and Skater the "Navy Seal (more like easter seal) from simhq.com, but Joe/Weps/Wpnx is 100% legit.
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Another good reply.
"Worst case is that they go ahead and DO NOT find that stuff. Were that true, I'd be actively calling for the resignation of the whole load of them."
That's the whole crux of it.
If they do find this stuff, then hallelujah, thank christ that crap has been dealt with, kudos to Bush and his Allies, and alot of the world's politicians are going to look mighty bad. Derelict. (I'm not prepared to blame the stances of yer common citizen though, because I still think we haven't been given a decently full and honest accounting of things).
On the other hand, if they don't find this stuff, then this entire thing has been a sham. Say what you want about Hussein's "evilness" or his track record - there are many out there with worse - and I don't think it's enough cause for invasion. And it would mean we've all been thoroughly lied to.
"Worst case is that they go ahead and DO NOT find that stuff. Were that true, I'd be actively calling for the resignation of the whole load of them."
I tell ya what... Your bet to 10bears.... I'll take a peice of this action.
I don't have any say in your government's affairs... but maybe I can get me some. ;) If they find WMD in Iraq to a degree that you and I can reasonably consider it a threat to other nations and is clearly a violation of their '91 resolutions and 1441, and/or evidence of a nuke program that goes somewhat beyond mere blueprints (some kind of equipment/infrastructure will suffice), then I'll pay a month's worth of AH to your squaddie.
If they don't find this stuff, then you write your congressman or applicable representative asking for Bush to take a long hike.
Just to make sure we're clear on what constitutes evidence so we don't end up hair splitting, I need to see more than what we've seen so far (a couple cans of mustard gas, empty tubes or missiles that fly a few miles farther than allowed). Not a *whole* lot more, just, ya know... something where reasonable people can look at it and feel comfortable and justified with the fact that hundreds of thousands of troops were sent in to take this stuff out.
Either way it pans out, I think we both win from this bet. Deal?
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Originally posted by Nash
Another good reply.
"Worst case is that they go ahead and DO NOT find that stuff. Were that true, I'd be actively calling for the resignation of the whole load of them."
That's the whole crux of it.
If they do find this stuff, then hallelujah, thank christ that crap has been dealt with, kudos to Bush and his Allies, and alot of the world's politicians are going to look mighty bad. Derelict. (I'm not prepared to blame the stances of yer common citizen though, because I still think we haven't been given a decently full and honest accounting of things).
On the other hand, if they don't find this stuff, then this entire thing has been a sham. Say what you want about Hussein's "evilness" or his track record - there are many out there with worse - and I don't think it's enough cause for invasion. And it would mean we've all been thoroughly lied to.
"Worst case is that they go ahead and DO NOT find that stuff. Were that true, I'd be actively calling for the resignation of the whole load of them."
I tell ya what... Your bet to 10bears.... I'll take a peice of this action.
I don't have any say in your government's affairs... but maybe I can get me some. ;) If they find WMD in Iraq to a degree that you and I can reasonably consider it a threat to other nations and is clearly a violation of their '91 resolutions and 1441, and/or evidence of a nuke program that goes somewhat beyond mere blueprints (some kind of equipment/infrastructure will suffice), then I'll pay a month's worth of AH to your squaddie.
If they don't find this stuff, then you write your congressman or applicable representative asking for Bush to take a long hike.
Just to make sure we're clear on what constitutes evidence so we don't end up hair splitting, I need to see more than what we've seen so far (a couple cans of mustard gas, empty tubes or missiles that fly a few miles farther than allowed). Not a *whole* lot more, just, ya know... something where reasonable people can look at it and feel comfortable and justified with the fact that hundreds of thousands of troops were sent in to take this stuff out.
Either way it pans out, I think we both win from this bet. Deal?
Imho, it's not the only case whether they find this stuff or not.
If there isn't a second resolution from UN to allow a war it's not up to the USA to decide : We do it nevertheless.
Regards Blitz
America is threatened by Iraq in no way, it's just plain rediculous
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That may be, and even Toad agrees with ya. The bet is just specific to a certain... uh... thing.
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Originally posted by Nash
....I don't have any say in your government's affairs... but maybe I can get me some. ;) If they find WMD in Iraq to a degree that you and I can reasonably consider it a threat to other nations and is clearly a violation of their '91 resolutions and 1441, and/or evidence of a nuke program that goes somewhat beyond mere blueprints (some kind of equipment/infrastructure will suffice), then I'll pay a month's worth of AH to your squaddie.
If they don't find this stuff, then you write your congressman or applicable representative asking for Bush to take a long hike.
....Either way it pans out, I think we both win from this bet. Deal?
First of all, I'd like to see if 10Bears is going to put up or not. I really think he doesn't believe the stuff about "Iraq has no significant Chem/Bio" but just can't bring himself to publicly say it.
Second, after he gets off the pot on this, I'll take your money but know this:
I'll be writing EVERY SINGLE Senator and Representative in the US demanding Bush's resignation if they don't find this stuff within a reasonable period. And I mean bunches of it and I mean validated by various newsmen and UN inspectors.
If he's sending young American's out to fight and die on on trumped up charges, I want him hung, not just in prison. And you can save this on your HD so you can confirm it matches what I'm saying if and when the time comes.
So really, you can save your $$$$, because I'll be doing it anyway. But if it makes ya feel better, I'll take yer money after 10Bears decides if he's in or out.
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C'mon 10 Bears, Nash is waiting!
You still convince that Iraq has no significant chem/bio stuff in deliberate violation of the UN SC sanctions?
Or are you gonna run up the white flag and admit that it is extremely probable that they do have that stuff, despite Blix's assurances?
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Toad,
Would Bush lie about something this grave?
Lets go down the short list of lies.
Bush claims to be just a Texas homeboy. False. He was born in Connecticut, went to private schools then went on to Yale as a legacy student. He claims to have finished his National Guard duties. False. There is no record of his honorable discharge. Bush claimed his stadium in Arlington Texas would bring in revenue to the locals there. False. He raised property taxes to pay for the stadium then left the good people of Arlington holding the bag. Bush claimed during the presidential campaign that his massive tax cut would help the economy. False. We now sport a 400 billion dollar deficit. Keep in mind there was 300 billion surplus of actual money sitting on his desk on his first day in office. On his first day in office, he or his administration claimed his predecessor trashed the Whitehouse and Air Force One. False. The GAO in their report cited no such damage. There are a number of other examples of George Bush misrepresenting the truth.
If you had taken the time to read the link I gave you, The Project for a New American Century, you would’ve seen there is an agenda for the middle east. much different than the one presented to the world or the American people.
The pretext for Bush invading Iraq is because he has WMD against 1441 or is violating the terms of the cease fire in 1991. Hans Blix in his report yesterday said Iraq was cooperating with the terms of 1441. It is the inspectors opinion that most of these weapons were destroyed at the end of the Gulf war, some more in 1995 as per the defector. Still more during Desert Fox. If he has anything left.. it’s a couple of buckets of bug spray.
Now would it be a major leap for Bush to misrepresent the truth here?.. As you said you would be the first to call for his impeachment blow the whistles ring the bells.. but wait. With war there are many stories that would jump to the front burner. Kurd uprisings, Turkish troops crossing the northern border, Iranians to the west and so forth, the WMD stories would fade into a memory hole. If any reporter asks about it at all the spin will be he moved his weapons to Syria or they are buried deep. The new story would be Bush brought Democracy to Iraq. Bush is a great man etc.
I will accept your second wager. You win $45 IF
1)The weapons are found within two weeks of Iraqi surrender.
2)Hans Blix and his team are allowed to inspect those weapons.
3)Has to be real weapons of mass destruction. Can’t keep raising the bar.
4)You sleep with that cute lil hippy gal above.
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There we go... I guess a bet is born.
To me it's like debating the existence of aliens, or God for that matter. Nobody can be sure they exist, and nobody can be sure they don't. Same goes for WMD in Iraq. Once you wipe aside all the rhetoric, allegations and best guesses, the only thing we can finally be sure about is that none of us on this BBS knows diddly all about it, really.
Think that's wrong? Then point me to indisputable evidence. You can't. And there'd hardly be need for a bet if it were so.
So WMD may be there, and it may not. Iraqis may dance in the streets upon the ousting of the Iraqi government, or they may be quite hostile towards occupation. Iraq may turn into this marvellous beacon of democracy in the dessert, or the whole thing may just go spiralling down the toejamter.
Who knows?
So here we have a bet based on evidence that may or may not turn up after the war is prosecuted. The very evidence on which this war is supossedly predicated. It's kind of nuts. I gotta wonder about people's eagerness to see a war not based on something they know, but based on something that may or may not turn up only after the war is fought. Trust in your leaders is fine for a lot of things, but in the case of sending troops in to overthrow the governments of sovereign nations... you'd hope they'd throw us some kind of bone. Something more than we've been given - by a long shot.
Interesting times ahead...
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Originally posted by 10Bears
3)Has to be real weapons of mass destruction. Can’t keep raising the bar.
Do we agree that any biological, chemical or nuclear weapon is a weapon of mass destruction...?
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I don't know about the WMD stuff, but I sure as hell would do the little hippy girl :D
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I'm no expert but I'd wager that any weapon that can cause mass destruction would qualify as a weapon of mass destruction.
So maybe a definition of "mass" is in order... A nuke? Sarin gas on a subway? A nasty flu virus going around at the office?
Or maybe it's like that quote about the difference between erotica and porn. Answer was: " I dunno how to define the difference, but I know it when I see it".
For me, it's kind of like that. When the war is over and we all take a breather from high-fivin', it won't be long in my mind after seeing what emerges before I feel comfortable with that action or feel a bit sick about it.
Hell, maybe we go by the Blitz definition afterall... Are Iraq's weapons and/or weapons programs a threat to the US or... is it ridiculous? :)
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sorry Saw she look to have already an "affair" with one (or both) of the cops on this pict :D
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I don't mind Straffo, I never did :D
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Originally posted by Saintaw
I don't know about the WMD stuff, but I sure as hell would do the little hippy girl :D
Careful there, my bet is she doesnt shave her legs or armpits.
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Originally posted by Nash
I'm no expert but I'd wager that any weapon that can cause mass destruction would qualify as a weapon of mass destruction.
Well, you'd think that wouldn't you. However with that definition, some conventional weapons would also be characterized as WMD's (FAE's for example).
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Ok well.... I'm sticking with my porn analogy then. ;)
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Damn, I should have known (I now see the yellow bicycle helmet on the right). this is a photo of the "tour de France"!
Relax, Straffo...hehe
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tu le sais Sawito : on peu rire de tout mais pas avec tout le monde ;)
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So, 10Bears DOES NOT have the confidence in what he's been spouting to back it up with a mere $45.
I will accept your second wager. You win $45 IF
1)The weapons are found within two weeks of Iraqi surrender.
2)Hans Blix and his team are allowed to inspect those weapons.
3)Has to be real weapons of mass destruction. Can’t keep raising the bar.
4)You sleep with that cute lil hippy gal above.
1. It'll take them more than two weeks to get Blix and team back into Iraq after hostilities cease. Make it six months and you have a bet.
2. Blix (or his UN appointed successor) and team are fine by me.
3. I'm talking chem or bio weapons currently prohibited to them by UN resolutions. That's what Blix is there looking for right? Sarin? Yep. VX? Yep. Mustard Gas? Yep. Anthrax? Yep. Botulin toxin? Yep. Whatever is currently on the prohibited chem/bio list.
4. I already did the hippy girl's Mom about 40 years ago I think. IF I did her daughter, I sure wouldn't let you watch and I don't film so you'll have to take my word for it.
So, we got a bet or not?
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toad.. the hippy chicks liked us bikers too... I think the real reasn tho was like a couple of em told me... the hippy guys were too wimpy.
lazs
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Yeah, it was FUNNY. They'd all come to protest when we had drill in our uniforms. Catcalls and cr*p from the sidelines.
Then drill is over and we'd leave with some of their women.
Blank stares under their beaded headbands as we walked off with their girl. Some moments are priceless.
:D
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45 dollars is plenty. That’s 3 months of aces high for your friend.
1. It'll take them more than two weeks to get Blix and team back into Iraq after hostilities cease. Make it six months and you have a bet.
Sorry, that’s a violation of the bet. Must be within two weeks of surrender. Can’t have this thing dragging out you can’t win on a technicality. There must be specifics.
3. I'm talking chem or bio weapons currently prohibited to them by UN resolutions. That's what Blix is there looking for right? Sarin? Yep. VX? Yep. Mustard Gas? Yep. Anthrax? Yep. Botulin toxin? Yep. Whatever is currently on the prohibited chem/bio list.
Agreed. But it has to be this stuff.. Not chemicals that can be mixed.. or duel use chemicals. Delivery systems don’t count either as they can be duel use for conventional weapons.
So.. your saying the girl above is your long lost daughter?.. My God Man! that’s incest!.. have you no morals?... Hey... what’s your daughter doin’ at a protest rally?.. See, that’s what happens when you don’t have a strong conservative male in the household.
Nash- Good punches there.. I forgot to give you credit last night.. good work!.
Poor ole’ Toad.. he’s up against Progressives that scored good marks on the High school debate team.
Toad, I also went to Catholic school...
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10Bears, I gotta laugh. I think Nash and I are pretty much on the same page overall. Guess you don't see it.
OK, here's the bet:
$45 (or more if you like.)
1. Use of chem/bio weapons during the combat phase means I win. Finding chem/bio weapons with 3 months after cessation of hostilities means I win.
(Sorry, but you know 2 weeks isn't long enough for Blix and crew to unpack their underwear and this stuff is obviously pretty well hidden. It's going to take a little time to get the collaborators to come forward and lead the way. I doubt Iraqis are going to want to spill the beans until they're quite sure the Hussein days are over.)
Three months, that's the bet. Hey, it's taken them 12 YEARS to get this far.
2. It's gotta be Blix and crew OR his UN appointed follow-on. We don't know; Blix might quit in disgust if the war starts or something. So, make it a UN sponsored investigator or something.
3. Any chem/bio weaponry or components that are on the prohibited list counts. You're saying they have nothing on the prohibited list, I'm saying they do.
After all, this war is about them not 'fessing up to what they have that is on the list. If they have the prohibited precursor chemicals to VX for example... bingo, I win.
4. The hippy girl is out of it. I figured you just tossed her in there so you'd have a bolt hole to avoid paying when you lost.
She isn't my daughter but she sure looks like a potential momma I used to run around with back in the "make love, not war" days.
Now, you in or you running away?
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Your on 3 months..
I have a quibble with 2nd part.. Delivery systems are out. They can be used for conventional ordanance.
I demand a blood test!
Hey.. wasn't that you I seen in the CT the other night? The Slot?.. How do you like?
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Originally posted by 10Bears
Your on 3 months..
I have a quibble with 2nd part.. Delivery systems are out. They can be used for conventional ordanance.
I demand a blood test!
Hey.. wasn't that you I seen in the CT the other night? The Slot?.. How do you like?
Done, till 3 months after the "truce" or "ceasefire" or "win".
Delivery systems specific to WMD count.. for example that drone they just found that only carries a light payload and is set up to distribute VX or Anthrax would count.
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Yeah, I was in the CT a while. The sun went down in the MA.
It's very pretty, you did well there.
My only real gripe against the CT is the icons. I just think it's the height of silliness to turn them off in the game when you'd be seeing IFF cues in RL and then turn them on in the game when you'd be getting plenty of visual IFF cues in RL.
However, in this setup it's not a factor. The distinct colors of the only available planes (gray vs blue) serves well enough as IFF in this instance. I may play it a bit more as a result.
With all the way the CV's and field capture is set up, it seems mostly a "furball" arena which is fine by me. :D
Good job on the map.
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Hhm... I guess this is my problem with the whole thing.
Say they finish pummelling Iraq and tossing out the government and begin setting up a proper occupation of Iraq. A press conference is held... damning evidence promised... they pull a rope, and a veil is lifted off of (Voila!) a drone.
Is WMD a reason to invade Iraq? I'd say so, yes.
Is a drone a WMD? I guess it could be argued that it's a delivery vehicle for WMD - many could see it that way - so lets say yes.
So far, so good... however...
Is the overthrow of the government of a sovereign nation by hundreds of thousands of troops... a war... justified, over a single drone?
The 1st two questions indicate yes, and point to a rationale for war. But is it rational? Is a drone really enough for everyone? Is a drone the threshold for war?
So yeah, that's my particular problem with this. Toad, aside from your bet with 10B, lets you and I just go with a 'reasonable people could conclude' approach, and if we're in agreement when this wraps up - I think we'll both know it.
If the war was worth it, good - and I'm paying a month of AH to one of your squadmates who was over there getting it done. If you conclude it was a sham, you get on the horn and start writing some letters. :) ( to your squaddie either way)
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The whole point of the bet is basically 10Bears "there's no evidence" position.
There is evidence. A bit here, a bit there, a chunk over the other place. But each time, it is dismissed or excused as "not enough of it" or "not really that dangerous" or "oh, gee.. did we forget to mention that one? sorry!"
How long can one allow them to slide by on excuses?
I think there's ample evidence they are not in compliance. Is this reason enough for war? Taking Hussein's regime, genocide, murders and other deeds as a whole with the non-compliance (which includes a possibly advanced nuke program)... Yes, it is time. I'm at peace with that. I do want UN sanction, however; I am not into this pre-emptive action stuff. (Not that anyone calls and asks my opinion. Although I've been sending them a few E-Mails... whopwhopwhopwhop, here come the black helos! Quick! Under the aluminum foil hats!)
That's why the bet is structured the way it is. Either they are in violation, and thus "not in compliance" for 12 years and it's time to "comply them" or they ARE in compliance.
Now, I'll be happy to take your money. But first, pick a charity or something. Heck, I'll pay your account for a month. I'm going to be writing those letters and angry E-mails anyway if you turn out to be right, so you aren't "winning" or "getting" anything.
As to the "proof", I'd expect to see a whole lot more than one drone or one lonely shell full of VX also.
So, the wager between you and I would be a bit different than the one with 10Bears in that respect.
With him, it's "not in compliance". With you, I'll take "reasonable people could conclude".
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Yes it would..
Delevery systems out. scuds UAV's out.. I want to see your mass piles of WMD Toad.. not the delevery systems.
Do we have a bet?
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Sure; you got a bet.
I'm quite sure they will find that stuff if we go to war.
Of course, if they find 25000 delivery systems used soley for WMD and no WMD, you'll win the bet and actually think they didn't have a WMD program going hot and heavy right? :D
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nash... if, say, canada had one drone capable of delivering wmd even after they said they didn't.... it might not be worth overthrowing their government to get rid of their leader. If the sadman did then it certainly is. Understand the difference?
lazs
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"Canada... one drone... it might not be worth overthrowing their government to get rid of their leader
Dang. Well... what if we had TWO drones? :D
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But seriously... If at the end of this thing I see Bush holding up an RC plane in front of the cameras I think I'm gonna puke.
(http://www.hobbytron.net/media/gr6236.jpg)
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You got a bet too, Nash.
And I think you know you're going to lose and it won't be because of some RPV.
BTW, you going to take the month of AH or do you want it to go to a charity? Is there "Poutine for the Poor" or something you want to name up front?
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I've tried poutine (that how you spell it?) once at a Burger King on the east coast once and it was the nastiest stuff I've ever tasted. I wouldn't wish it on the poor. It's a Quebec thing.
Speaking of the French... just give the month to straffo. Poor guy has taken enough abuse over this entire thing I figure.. :)
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Done.
Straffo is your charity. WpnX is mine.
I like mine better. ;)
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Nash I prefer you to give money to Handicap International or MSF.
http://www.handicap-international.org.uk/site/page_type/accueil.asp
http://www.msf.org/
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Originally posted by 10Bears
Your on 3 months..
I have a quibble with 2nd part.. Delivery systems are out. They can be used for conventional ordanance.
I demand a blood test!
Hey.. wasn't that you I seen in the CT the other night? The Slot?.. How do you like?
For the record before an edit shows.
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Originally posted by Toad
10Bears, I gotta laugh. I think Nash and I are pretty much on the same page overall. Guess you don't see it.
OK, here's the bet:
$45 (or more if you like.)
1. Use of chem/bio weapons during the combat phase means I win. Finding chem/bio weapons with 3 months after cessation of hostilities means I win.
(Sorry, but you know 2 weeks isn't long enough for Blix and crew to unpack their underwear and this stuff is obviously pretty well hidden. It's going to take a little time to get the collaborators to come forward and lead the way. I doubt Iraqis are going to want to spill the beans until they're quite sure the Hussein days are over.)
Three months, that's the bet. Hey, it's taken them 12 YEARS to get this far.
2. It's gotta be Blix and crew OR his UN appointed follow-on. We don't know; Blix might quit in disgust if the war starts or something. So, make it a UN sponsored investigator or something.
3. Any chem/bio weaponry or components that are on the prohibited list counts. You're saying they have nothing on the prohibited list, I'm saying they do.
After all, this war is about them not 'fessing up to what they have that is on the list. If they have the prohibited precursor chemicals to VX for example... bingo, I win.
4. The hippy girl is out of it. I figured you just tossed her in there so you'd have a bolt hole to avoid paying when you lost.
She isn't my daughter but she sure looks like a potential momma I used to run around with back in the "make love, not war" days.
Now, you in or you running away?
For the record.
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$45 (or more if you like.)
More if I like?
1. Use of chem/bio weapons during the combat phase means I win. Finding chem/bio weapons with 3 months after cessation of hostilities means I win.
Aside from some minor fighting up north, the war is won as of today April 9, 03.
I suggest the three month clock start ticking today.
There ain't no Iraqi generals left to authorize surrender.. but you can see the Iraqi people dancing in the street yoddlin' There might be a few die hard snipers in next few months but this thing is pretty much rapped up.
You can see the spin points are already moving away from WMD to liberation, and I figured that, but the main pretext he keep repeating over and over was for Saddam to disarm. That's what our wager is about.
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10Bears,
If you are so confident that nothing will be found, what's your hurry to start the clock.....I mean if nothing's there, nothing's there...right?
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Ya know 10Bears, from the git go I knew you'd try to weasel out of it if you lost. But I must admit, I didn't expect you to try to weasel out of it before it's even been determined.
Reread the bet that YOU agreed to please.
Note these parts:
Finding chem/bio weapons with 3 months after cessation of hostilities means I win.
Clearly, hostilities have not ceased.
The "main wager" was this:
Any chem/bio weaponry or components that are on the prohibited list counts. You're saying they have nothing on the prohibited list, I'm saying they do.
You agreed to this wager, as posted.
Now let's just see it through, eh?
Like the gentlemen we are.
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Ya know 10Bears, from the git go I knew you'd try to weasel out of it if you lost.
Jeeezus. What a piece of crap. And does he realize how transparent it is?
Wab