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General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Ripsnort on March 31, 2003, 01:32:10 PM

Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Ripsnort on March 31, 2003, 01:32:10 PM: This has just GOT to piss Weazel off ;)

Quote
Bush's overall job approval rating is at 71%, about the same as it has been since the war began. The current rating is 13 points higher than the pre-war rating measured on March 14-15, reflecting the usual "rally effect" that accompanies challenges to the United States on foreign shores. Bush's father received job approval ratings in the low 80% range in 1991 when the first Persian Gulf War began. The current president received a job approval rating of 90% in September 2001 -- the highest in Gallup Poll history.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: AKIron on March 31, 2003, 01:36:24 PM: Anything that might piss Weazel off is worth a punt to me, keeping this on page one for a while. :D
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Wlfgng on March 31, 2003, 01:38:04 PM: gotta' wonder if that 'poll' is really representative or not...
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: funkedup on March 31, 2003, 01:42:55 PM: Based on people I know, I would say 71% is a very low figure.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Ripsnort on March 31, 2003, 01:43:01 PM: Quote
Originally posted by Wlfgng
gotta' wonder if that 'poll' is really representative or not...

Thats worthy of a discussion in itself! I think they can be quite misleading, and said that during the Clinton administration as well.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Sikboy on March 31, 2003, 01:43:22 PM: Quote
Originally posted by Wlfgng
gotta' wonder if that 'poll' is really representative or not...

Considering that Gallup lives or dies by making sure their polls are representative, I would think so. Here's some more information on this particular poll in case you were actually interested in in.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr030325.asp

[edit] This poll was from the 25th, Rip might be talking about something more recent.
[/edit]
I'm wondering when the latest Zogby will be available?

-Sik
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Sikboy on March 31, 2003, 01:48:34 PM: Quote
Originally posted by Ripsnort
Thats worthy of a discussion in itself! I think they can be quite misleading, and said that during the Clinton administration as well.

That is interesting indeed. I posted the Gallup results from the 25th or March in my reply above. But now look at the Zogby results from the same day.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=691

[edit] I think i found it. Zogby offers peopel four options: Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor. Excellent and Good are "favorable" and fair/poor are "unfavorable"

Gallup only gives two options: approve/dissaprove.

It looks like people are more comfortable saying that hte president is doing a "fair" job, than they are of dissaproving of him.

Pretty cool stuff.
[/edit]
-Sik
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Erlkonig on March 31, 2003, 02:03:03 PM: (http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/MyHTML3.gif)

(http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/MyHTML1.gif)

Related stuff here (http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/).
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: JBA on March 31, 2003, 03:47:24 PM: http://www.gallup.com/poll/specialReports/pollSummaries/sr030224.asp
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Frogm4n on March 31, 2003, 04:02:48 PM: i like that little chart of the doward slope. looks alot like his fathers.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: AKIron on March 31, 2003, 06:23:13 PM: punt
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Sandman on March 31, 2003, 06:44:43 PM: Makes perfect sense to me. I don't know anyone that does not support the troops and the majority of those think that supporting the President is the same thing.

Once the troops are on the field, the Prez get's a jump in his approval.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Nash on March 31, 2003, 08:29:41 PM: Bush Sr.'s approval rating during Desert Storm was 91%.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Frogm4n on March 31, 2003, 08:31:13 PM: without wars or terrorist attacks both the bush's approval rateings plumet
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Hangtime on March 31, 2003, 08:34:06 PM: bush will not survive the next election.

just my lil prediction.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Dead Man Flying on March 31, 2003, 08:42:18 PM: Quote
Originally posted by Frogm4n
without wars or terrorist attacks both the bush's approval rateings plumet

As does the approval rating of just about any president. The mean approval rating for presidents over time stands at about 54%. Typically approval does not begin at that level, however, and when you consider that the average approval rating for presidents entering office hovers at around 70%, from a statistical perspective there's an over-time stochastic push downward on approval ratings irrespective of actual events. In other words, there's not a lot of room to go above 70%, but there's a lot of room to go below it. The natural process of equilibration tends to push high numbers toward the mean in the middle.

For that reason, so long as approval ratings stand above about 54%, you'll see that downward trend like Bush Sr. suffered. You didn't actually expect to see an upward trend from his 91% approval, did you? By the same token, approval ratings below the mean level tend to push upward toward the equilibrium over time.

Wars and terrorist attacks may offer a temporary boost to approval, but time and again we see that this boost decays back to standard levels after awhile.

-- Todd/Leviathn
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Animal on March 31, 2003, 08:43:44 PM: Thats 20% too close to country separation...
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Sikboy on March 31, 2003, 08:54:14 PM: Quote
Originally posted by Dead Man Flying

Wars and terrorist attacks may offer a temporary boost to approval, but time and again we see that this boost decays back to standard levels after awhile.

-- Todd/Leviathn

What the hell do you know Todd? Everyone knows that only external reasons allow approval to go up, while approval goes down because political capitol is "squandered"

You're going to have to educate yourself if you want to take part in these types of discussions.

-Sik
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Frogm4n on March 31, 2003, 09:12:08 PM: very few presidents managed to have a high approval rateing during peacetime, but to go from a 90 pecent to losing a election in what 1 year? that is just poor management on the home front comming back to haunt you.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Dead Man Flying on March 31, 2003, 10:12:49 PM: Quote
Originally posted by Frogm4n
very few presidents managed to have a high approval rateing during peacetime, but to go from a 90 pecent to losing a election in what 1 year? that is just poor management on the home front comming back to haunt you.

It's the economy, Stupid.

-- Todd/Leviathn
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: AKIron on April 01, 2003, 01:12:10 AM: punt
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Harppa on April 01, 2003, 02:44:42 AM: Iraqi gallup polls still shows Saddam approval rates at over 100 %:p
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Boroda on April 01, 2003, 06:32:33 AM: All that "public opinion polls" hav one and only purpose: to manipulate public opinion. Something like a positive feedback. Very effective, BTW.

Ineresting to see that manipulation technologies at work.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Martlet on April 01, 2003, 06:38:08 AM: Quote
Originally posted by Boroda
All that "public opinion polls" hav one and only purpose: to manipulate public opinion. Something like a positive feedback. Very effective, BTW.

Ineresting to see that manipulation technologies at work.

Yes. People offering their position in an anonymous poll manipulates public opinion.

wake up.
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Dead Man Flying on April 01, 2003, 09:03:47 AM: Quote
Originally posted by Boroda
All that "public opinion polls" hav one and only purpose: to manipulate public opinion. Something like a positive feedback. Very effective, BTW.
[/B]

LOL! Wrong as usual. Check out The Macro Polity by Erikson, MacKuen, and Stimson. In it, they analyze over 50 years of polls from dozens of organizations (resulting in hundreds of thousands of observations) and find that, after some initial delay, public policy closely follows aggregate public opinion.

Meaning, in other words that your arrow of causality goes in the wrong direction. As public opinion on issues shifts from liberal to conservative or vice-versa, public policy tends to match the shift after a brief pause that may be explained as legislators and bureaucrats gauging public opinion and implementing policy change accordingly.

Quote
Ineresting to see that manipulation technologies at work.

That you would even begin to argue that Gallup represents a "manipulation technology" indicates your complete ignorance of American society.

-- Todd/Leviathn
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Fishu on April 01, 2003, 11:09:47 AM: Quote
Originally posted by Boroda
All that "public opinion polls" hav one and only purpose: to manipulate public opinion. Something like a positive feedback. Very effective, BTW.

Ineresting to see that manipulation technologies at work.

I'm sure you could go out there in US to make your own poll and get same kind of results as these several news networks whos been doing the polls.

Not surprising at all or unexpected.

However, propaganda sure does exist... I'm already tired of the freedom waahwaah and it always amazes me how the crowd cheers while Bush talks his freedom waahwaah free iraqi people waahwaah...
yeah right, thats his main goal... NOT.

A Republican using money solely to free oppressed people? no way in hell!
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Drunky on April 01, 2003, 11:32:44 AM: the fat lady on cnn says that bush's approval rating is "only[/i] 70%"

is she letting her personal feelings intrude on unbiased reporting?
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: AKIron on April 01, 2003, 12:12:31 PM: Just waving the crucifix to keep Weazel away. Seems to be working. ;)
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Nash on April 01, 2003, 01:45:15 PM: Weazel is banned, Iron.

If he were here, I imagine he might say that a 71% approval rating during war time is not exactly something to brag about. ;)
Title: Gallup poll shows Bush approval ratings still at 71%
Post by: Wlfgng on April 01, 2003, 03:13:10 PM: Quote
Ineresting to see that manipulation technologies at work.

on all sides...