Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: OIO on April 17, 2003, 10:15:38 AM
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Thats messed up.
Maybe they pulling a Chirac in hopes of getting a bigger piece of the reconstruction pie.
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If they end sanctions on Iraq, no more cheap oil for them.
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Umm.. but russia has it's own oil, alot of it
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Aye, but they cant afford to get at it.
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That oil goes straight into the rivers and back into the enviroment.
Says al lot about russia too.
;)
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Originally posted by Fishu
Umm.. but russia has it's own oil, alot of it
And yet Russia was Iraqs biggest oil customer. Perhaps you'd care to explain wht Russia rejects the lifting of sanctions?
http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/sanction/iraq1/council/2002/0116russia.htm
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Russia has lots of oil and they sell a lot of it. If oil prices drop they will be screwed. When iraq enters the market again oil prices will drop a bit.
Russian middlemen run the UN oil for food program, this will stop soon after sanctions are dropped and these guys will loose income.
Those are some of the resons russia was against the war and thats why they might be against lifting sanctions.
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What idiot ever suggested that Russia is afraid of losing cheap oil from Iraq? Russia does not import any oil from Iraq. They were in oil-exploration business with iraqi, not import.
Russia sells oil and it is afraid that cheap oil from iraq on the world market would drive the prices and their revenues down.
miko
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The sanctions were supposed to influence the government of Iraq to comply right?
Where IS that government that they're supposed to be influencing now?
Clearly, the sanctions are pointless now. The government that they applied to no longer exists.
How ironic that the very governments that ignored them when Saddam held power now want to keep sanctions in effect with Saddam out of power.
Or maybe it's not irony.
;)
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The UN sucks. You heard it here first.
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Originally posted by miko2d
What idiot ever suggested that Russia is afraid of losing cheap oil from Iraq? Russia does not import any oil from Iraq.
From the article I posted before your post. Of course I don't know if it's accurate.
"Six months after Russia blocked a U.S. effort to overhaul U.N. sanctions against Iraq, Moscow has emerged as Baghdad's largest export customer, according to U.N. diplomats."
What is Russia importing from Iraq exactly if not oil? Fine wine maybe?
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Toad: The government that they applied to no longer exists.
Does that mean our troops will be out of there by weekend? :)
Anyway:
RUSSIA will not support a US proposal to lift UN sanctions on Iraq if UN inspectors do not confirm the country has no weapons of mass destruction, a Russian foreign ministry official said.
"Regime change in Baghdad is not a condition for lifting economic sanctions on Iraq," the official told the Interfax news agency on condition of anonymity.
"There is a UN Security Council resolution for this, which clearly stipulates the disarmament of Iraq - something international inspectors must decide," he said, adding that Russia supported the return of UN inspectors.
We need a new UN resolution or just wait for the whole subject to become moot once iraq is officially a US-administered territory and all trade becomes US trade. Falling that, we can always rename the damn country or split it into several onces or join it with Syria which is not embargoed, etc. Once you have power, it's easier to redraw the borders that international laws.
miko
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Those sanctions are the only means that the UN has for making money off of Iraqi oil. I'm sure this was a recent topic of conversation at the last F/G/R meeting.
Its not a suprise to anyone.
MiniD
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Now who's shedding blood for oil?
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AKIron: From the article I posted before your post. Of course I don't know if it's accurate.
If Russia did act as an intermediary for reselling iraqi oil, or bought some of it for themselves because iraq is close to the south and transporting oil from Iraq may be cheaper than from the north, they will not be able to to maintain those actions, embargoe or not - not with US in control of the oil production.
What is large for iraq is not necessarily large for Russia. If they engaged into any small import dealings with Iraq, it's mostly to facilitate huge development and exploration contracts - which are exports.
It's major oil price drop that Russia fears, not some measly commissions on some iraqi resale. The cost of producing oil in russia is about $18/barrel. If it drops to that level, they are screwed in a major way.
miko
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There has to be more to it Miko. If a nation's revenue is completely dependant on price fixing the world's oil supply (of which they are a minor percentage of), there is a problem in comprehending fundamental economics.
MiniD
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Originally posted by miko2d
If Russia did act as an intermediary for reselling iraqi oil, or bought some of it for themselves because iraq is close to the south and transporting oil from Iraq may be cheaper than from the north, they will not be able to to maintain those actions, embargoe or not - not with US in control of the oil production.
After doing more research I can say there is no "If".
http://www.un.org/Depts/oip/background/latest/wu981207.html
Maybe you should do a bit of research yourself before throwing the insults around. That way they wouldn't tend to land on you.
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Heard this other night on tv.
UN is like a battered women "she never listens"
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Mini D: There has to be more to it Miko. If a nation's revenue is completely dependant on price fixing the world's oil supply (of which they are a minor percentage of), there is a problem in comprehending fundamental economics.
I fail to see why you involve comprehending of fundamental economics - other then to use big words. It seems thay you have trouble understanding basic things.
It is not how small percentage Russia contributes to the world oil supply but what fraction of net revenues the oil exports contribute to the russian economy that is important to Russia.
With base price of $18/barrel, drop in price from $28 to $23 will deprive them of half of their oil profits.
Besides, oil dollars are more important for ruissian government that otehr export dollars - being concentrated and easily controlled than diffuse exports, those dollars are used to keep stability and greese the wheels of russian state structure.
Russia was exporting about 3 million barels per day in 2002. With $10/barel profit it's $30 million/day or about $11 billion per year profit (not just revenue). If you think that is not a significant amount for Russia, you are badly misinformed.
miko
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Miko, I'm not disputing Russian requirements on oil dollars... I'm disputing your blind ignorance (and Russia's apparently) of the fact that IF YOU ARE RELYING ON CONTROLLING SOMEONE ELSE'S OIL PRICES TO BOOST YOUR OWN REVENUES YOU ARE NOT THINKING STRAIGHT. The fact that this is so readily apparent means there simply has to be more to the situation than "they need the prices to stay at a certain point."
MiniD
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AKIron: After doing more research I can say there is no "If".
Maybe you should do a bit of research yourself before throwing the insults around.
I said "if" to indicate that I tended to believe your statements about Russia buying iraqi oil and just did not care to verify it or demand proof - as is obvious from my post.
So don't assume insult on my part where it's not present. But I should not have extended to you the benefit of the doubt.
Your "proof" illustrates my point, not yours.
You did not understand the simple table or you lied hoping we are too lazy to open it or too dumb to understand what it says.
Look under "destination" - it's all Europe, USA and Far East. Basically, Russia was providing transportation for us and other western countries and probably earned some money doing that. None of that oil was going to Russia!
So you confuse transporting goods for (small) hire with purchasing oil for internal consumption and anyway Russia's attitude is very different towards those from what you claim.
If Russia was buying iraqi oil, it would be in favor of lifting embargo in order to be able to buy the same oil for less.
Since iraqi oil needs to be transported and US/western firms quit tanker business due to the cost of litigation, russian ships would still be needed and used to transport iraiq oil. Without embargo tehre would be more oil to transport and more business for Russia!
Whether buying iraqi oil (false, no "if"s, according to your proof) or transporting it, Russia would favor lifting embargo.
The only reason it would suffer from embargo if it was competing with iraqi oil exporting it - as it does to the tune of $20-30 billion a year profit.
My argument stands. Accept it or look for better counter-arguments. Honest ones, please.
miko
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Mini D: IF YOU ARE RELYING ON CONTROLLING SOMEONE ELSE'S OIL PRICES TO BOOST YOUR OWN REVENUES YOU ARE NOT THINKING STRAIGHT.
You are the one not thinking straight or being totally ignorant on basic realities of teh world. The current world oil prices are not and have long not been maintained through the free-market process but by monopolistic cartel of OPEC and it's agrements with other countries including Russia.
Saudi Arabia spends $1/barrel to pump oil and it was making profit even when oil prices were $8/barrel. The move to $30 was an intentional self-imposition of quotas on the oil-producing countries.
Of course all member countries cheat a bit and exceed their quotas, but addition of Iraqi supply, especially in the hands of US which is not bound by any agreements or subject to pressure would likely mean a significant price drop or further cuts in production by other oil-producing countries, both of which mean significant losses for them.
For Russia it may well mean serious disruption and civil unrest.
It used to be that oil production was in the hands of weak countries (except Russia but it cannot expand it's oil production fast) and major powers left them alone when they played by the rules (keeping oil price below $28).
Now US enters the oil market. It can screw up economies of many countries by either lowering or raising the prices. Why should they like it?
Personally, I believe that oil revenues corrupt Russia and losing them would do that country a lot of good - making it take a closer look at it's government and promoting competitiveness of their industry rather then retarding it.
But it's their government that acts on Russia's behalf and they do not share my views.
miko
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Miko, it's obvious to me, and to any non-idiots, that Russia is profitting from the IMPORT of Iraqi oil. What they do with it after they buy it from Iraq is irrelevant to this discussion. You presume to much when you assume I didn't see that they are reselling much of it to the USA.
The point of this post is that Russia is denying the lifting of sanctions because they would lose profit. No one has denied that you are correct in that Russia wants to control world wide oil prices. You were the one calling people idiots for claiming Russia won't lift sanctions becuase they may lose the Iraqi imports.
Takes a big, or at least a smart person to admit when they are wrong. All I see from you is back tracking, denial, and further insults.
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Miko... stop being obtuse.
now you're taking about oil cartels which is entirely different than one country controlling oil prices. The Cartels work to set the oil prices at a mutually benifcial price for all involved. That means highest price for the sellers weighted against the best value for the buyers.
Russia does not dictate those prices. They have input on them, but they do not dictate them.
I'm sorry that you fail to realize that Russia's needs for the price of oil to be at a certain price are not necessarily coinciding with the rest of the world's needs. If you think the Russians can do anything to manipulate that outside of the cartel, then you are quite simply ignorant.
The oil industry must agree... and they aren't going to agree if the Russians interfere in that manner.
MiniD
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Miko hasn’t graduated his business college yet?
Damn, get a square hat and gown, then a real job with real life experience and stop the constant OffTopic thesis writing of bullsh#t you post as if it’s facts already.
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I think it's time for a regime change in the Kremlin.
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AKIron: Miko, it's obvious to me, and to any non-idiots, that Russia is profitting from the IMPORT of Iraqi oil. What they do with it after they buy it from Iraq is irrelevant to this discussion.
Even though they make a small amount of money on transporting the Iraqi oil - that you refer to as import with it is not, they loose much more if the increase in supply of that oil drops the world oil prices.
The point of this post is that Russia is denying the lifting of sanctions because they would lose profit.
That was my point too.
I just disagred with you, bunch of ignorants, on the specifics of the process. Shipment is not import. Five cents is not hundred bucks. With US in posession of the actual oil Russia would not be able to to continue "import" of it and would be inclined to play along with US rather than oppose it.
You attribute absolutely idiotic and irrational motives to Russia - no doubt to call them dumb or unreasonably spitefull afterwards.
They have quite rational, if selfish motives for opposing US. Big difference.
Takes a big, or at least a smart person to admit when they are wrong. All I see from you is back tracking, denial, and further insults.
You are a judge, jury and executioner on that decision? Do you even understand how conceited you sound? If you cannot see a flaw in your ignorant argument that relies on idiocy of everyone to be valid, it does not really make you a winner.
Which does not prevent you from boasting on othrr threads, liar.
Russia does not dictate those prices. They have input on them, but they do not dictate them.
Where did I say they "dictate" those prices? You are imagining things. They currently make $20-30 bils a year selling oil. They are not competitive like chinese and cannot print dollars like we do, so they want to keep teh oil money coming as long as possible.
The notion that they should not base their state well-being on such an export - as you've correctly noted - does not change the fact that they do just that.
They try to influence the oil prices by whatever means they can, including through OPEC or UN sanctions or support of Iraqi military to prolong the conflict and increase destruction.
Creamo: Damn, get a square hat and gown, then a real job with real life experience and stop the constant OffTopic thesis writing of bullsh#t you post as if it’s facts already.
Another handsomehunk who prefers to stay ignorant but not smart enough to master the use of "ignore" button.
miko
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I'd like to see the price of oil drop to $17.50.
Then I'd like to see miko lose his green card.