Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: JB73 on May 07, 2003, 12:47:12 PM
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About a month ago i read or heard a news report about the axis the earth spins on. now we all know how the earth spins and and stuff. we also know the 1 time each year the north pole is pointing away from the sun. for us in the northern hemisphere it is during our summer. it is also the time when the earth is the farthest from the sun. durring the winter in the northern hemisphere the earth is actually closer to the sun but since the north pole is pointed towards the sun there is less daylight (less of the surface on the northern hemisphere is exposed to the direct sunlight). that is why the days are shorter in wintertime.
now after that quick non-technical recap of the path of our planet... the report i heard told that the axis of the earth actually is wobbling in a 27,000 or so year rotation. meaning every 27,000 years the point at which the north pole is pointing @ the sun will be opposite. logic states that every 27,000 years or so june, july, and august will be winter in the northern hemisphere. then it will slowly change back to being summer @ that time.
now given the difference in the distance from the sun during the "winter" and "summer" now, when this change happens will there be a dramatic difference in global tempature? think about it... right now as stated "summer" the earth is farthest from the sun, getting less heat and solar radation. if "summer" happens during the point in which the earth is CLOSEST to the sun the world climate will be extreemly effected.
my speaking about "summer" and winter" relates to the northern hemisphere only. we all know the southern hemisphere is the exact opposite in seasons than us. but there is more of an effect. there is much more land mass in the northern hemisphere than the southern. how does that affect this situation? if i am not mistaken the oceans store more solar heat than land. if that is true then when the great waters of the suothern hemisphere are having "summer" while being farther away from the sun they will not get as warm. thus cooling the eintire globe down.
or is it the opposite with land and water (large bodies)?
another part of this is our way of keeping time. with the "seconds" we add here and there to the clocks @ new years are we adjusting for this exact phenomenon? if so that doesnt change the actual physics of it i guess. but is our "time" based on our relation to the sun itself or the entire galaxy? oh well thats just a tiny part of this dicussion.
either way this phenomenon will have a huge impact on the enviroment. the question i have for you is how much of this is happening now? where are we in this cycle?
what are your the AH community's thoughts?
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As long as my toilet flushes the right direction, I'm OK with any climate changes.
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in short....
another ice age.....
there is evidence that every 50 000 years there is a new ice age.....we are now in the middle of that 50 000 years.
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There is true north (the axis) and magnetic north. I only very quickly read what you typed, but I think you are talking about magnetic poles which have switched before and will switch again.
Oops, my bad (though I've still not read it all) but thought he meant the North and South poles switched. Nevermind.
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well not truly that Slo .... there is documantation the the global climate goes through up and down cycles every 1000 years about, but this is more definate. there is a distinct effect to this where most other weather phenomenon are not as pinpointable. also this is every 27,000 or so ..... meaning if ice ages are every 50,000 they happen every "other" time.
(the funny thing is me bringing this up at all since i believe in creation and am a christian)
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Called precession, the axis is slowly changing, like the spin axis of a top, due to gravity effects of the sun and moon.
14,000 years ago Vega was the north star, not Polaris. Five thousand years ago, Thuban was the North Star. Five thousand years from now, the North Star will be Alpha Cephei. Seven thousand years after that, it will be Vega, and Vega will be 'fixed' and Polaris will draw a circle in the night sky.
Just to correct a minor flaw, the suns most northerly vertical rays are on June 21, which means that the northern hemisphere is tilted toward, not away from the sun.
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well the 50 000 years is a theory......its only an approximation.....from evidence gathered.
but if the magnetic fields are disrupted.....that would pretty much affect all the globe....severe weather changes...disruption of the tectonic plates....the earth crust...water levels would rise due too the melting of polar ice caps.....radiation......prett y much all life would take a blow.
but from what I read about your post....it really really sounds like your talking about another ice age.....
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sort of slo .... but my secret reason behind this is to show that there are a ton of other factors effecting the climate and that "global warming" is not real.
oh well no takers i guess :(
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Originally posted by JB73
what are your the AH community's thoughts?
You should just avoid science completely, since you will just warp and distort anything that you research to fit your own pre-conceived notions.
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Originally posted by Montezuma
You should just avoid science completely, since you will just warp and distort anything that you research to fit your own pre-conceived notions.
Yes you should avoid it. Everyone else does.
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your all crazy, turn off your computer and go out side and live your life.
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Greenhouse gasses are real. The greenhouse affect is real. (Go check out the surface of Venus if you doubt that.) The fact that climate may vary according to axis progression is irrelevent to the possible affect pumping huge amounts of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses may have on the climate.
Saying you have a cause for climate changes doesn't negate all other causes.
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Even though Texas is too damn hot already I'm not so sure the "greenhouse effect" would be a bad thing. Melted ice caps means more water. Elevated temperatures means longer growing seasons. Increased elevation of sea level means no more California, a guy can hope can't he. ;)
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Midnight, the "greenhouse" gas theory is great until the facts are reviewed. A greenhouse uses glass, not CO2 gas, to keep the heat in. The most prevalent gas in our atmosphere AND greenhouses is nitrogen. Until CO2 replaces nitrogen and water vapor in the atmosphere, its effects on the earth's temperature are speculative and negligable at best. Venus is hotter because it is closer to the sun.
Is there any evidence that the polar "wobble" created changes in the size of the earth's orbit? That might explain the temp changes between ice ages.
MiG
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Originally posted by Holden McGroin
Called precession, the axis is slowly changing, like the spin axis of a top, due to gravity effects of the sun and moon.
14,000 years ago Vega was the north star, not Polaris. Five thousand years ago, Thuban was the North Star. Five thousand years from now, the North Star will be Alpha Cephei. Seven thousand years after that, it will be Vega, and Vega will be 'fixed' and Polaris will draw a circle in the night sky.
Just to correct a minor flaw, the suns most northerly vertical rays are on June 21, which means that the northern hemisphere is tilted toward, not away from the sun.
Here's a few images to illustrate the precession process:-
The image below shows 'Polaris' - the Pole Star in its current 2003 position, a few degrees off true north.
(http://www.btinternet.com/~nexx/2003.jpg)
In 1000 years time you can note how far Polaris has moved off true north - year 3003
(http://www.btinternet.com/~nexx/3003.jpg)
In year 9999, note how far away it is now
(http://www.btinternet.com/~nexx/9999.jpg)
As for magnetic north, this changes every year and is effected by the molten magnetic content of the Earth's core.
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I can believe in global warming, after all the winters here at least are getting warmer. We only had a few days of frost and a single day of snow this year. I know that's not true everywhere, least of all the US. The summers here are pretty much the same except for extra rain.
But I can see how there might be global warming. We had global cooling in the nineteenth century. The Thames in London froze and people could skate on it. A thousand years ago Greenland was warm enough for Viking settlers to live there and grow crops. I can handle all that.
No, where I diverge is the now holy tenet among environmentalist and scientists is that the current warming is the result of our doings and our fault alone not some sort of cyclical warming which happens from time to time. But it's hard to say stuff like that. Sometimes it's like standing up in church and saying there's no God.
The current belief everywhere is that global warming is no longer just a theory or a possible outcome, it's a proven fact and it's happening now! Anyone who disagrees with this 'fact' is a heretic or in the employ of the oil companies and is hammered mercilessly with every flood or drought, sunny day or wet day as proof we are all doomed unless we give up our cars and take the bus.
Little inconsistentcies are ignored like the reality that carbon dioxide is used by plants. Lots of carbon dioxide improves plant growth and what do plants exhale; oxygen. It's seem Mother Earth has already worked out the balancing act to prevent the greenhouse effect. Then there effect of clouds themselves formed we are told by all this CO2. Yet like shades in a greenhouse once a cloud covers the sun it's cooler on the ground.
But there's no point in arguing far too many people have made their careers out of this global warming caused by humans idea. They are not going to accept evidence to the contrary.
What bothers me about all this is that arrogant assumption that we humans are responsible for the weather and the global climate. Just who do we think we are? God?
Just to show how theories like this can be quietly dropped. Whatever happened to the big Ozone layer crisis of nineties? Haven't heard much about that lately have you? Apparently it was all caused by old fridges, cows farting and hairsprays. But then a volcano exploded in the Phillippines and it made a bigger hole than all the cows in Texas. Scratch one theory.
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Midnight, the "greenhouse" gas theory is great until the facts are reviewed. A greenhouse uses glass, not CO2 gas, to keep the heat in. The most prevalent gas in our atmosphere AND greenhouses is nitrogen. Until CO2 replaces nitrogen and water vapor in the atmosphere, its effects on the earth's temperature are speculative and negligable at best. Venus is hotter because it is closer to the sun.
Sorry bud, but Venus is not just "hotter because it is closer to the Sun", it is hotter than Mercury, which is much closer to the Sun. Why is it hotter than Mercury? Greenhouse Affect.
Nitrogen is indeed the most prevalent gas in the atmosphere, but that means nothing. Greenhouse gases do not have to become the majority to have an effect.
Check This Out (http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/hottopics/climatechange/greenhouseeffect.shtml)
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JB73, the Earth's distance from the sun at various times of the year has VERY little to do with the climactic changes. Although Earth's orbit is eliptical, there is very little difference in temperature at it's farthest vs. closest point to the sun. The seasons are caused soley by the tilt of the earth's axis.
As an amatuer astronomer, I love this kind of stuff. History suggests the Earth goes through repeated cycles of global warming, then ice ages. This is mainly caused by volcanic activity which releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere which acts like a greenhouse. There are many theories as to why, including a group of very large asteroids that pass by the earth every 65 million years or so. The gravitational tidal effects of these asteroids passing by the earth causes increases in tectonic activity which in turn causes increases in volcanic activity. The more volcanoes, the more carbon dioxide, and the warmer it gets. The only drawback is that sometimes these asteroids actually hit the Earth causing mass extinctions (dinosaurs, etc...).
I think we're due for another pass in about a million years or so, so LOOK OUT!!!!!!!!!!! LOL
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Originally posted by CMC Airboss
Midnight, the "greenhouse" gas theory is great until the facts are reviewed. A greenhouse uses glass, not CO2 gas, to keep the heat in. The most prevalent gas in our atmosphere AND greenhouses is nitrogen. Until CO2 replaces nitrogen and water vapor in the atmosphere, its effects on the earth's temperature are speculative and negligable at best. Venus is hotter because it is closer to the sun.
Is there any evidence that the polar "wobble" created changes in the size of the earth's orbit? That might explain the temp changes between ice ages.
MiG
Venus is as hot as it is because of greenhouse gasses due to tremendous volcanic activity. In fact, if the atmosphere of Venus were similar to Earth's, it would have nearly an identical climate even though it's a bit closer to the Sun.
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a study by UK researchers, earlier this year, compared recent satellite readings with data from 27 years ago and found that less radiation is now escaping into space. This suggests that the greenhouse effect has increased, at a rate in line with rising greenhouse gas production.
but there are so many variables to Climate...
Other explanations - the Sun
Even if we are increasing the greenhouse effect, global climate change might not be entirely our fault. Some scientists suggest that changes in the solar wind (electrically-charged particles coming from the Sun) might affect the Earth's cloud cover, increasing global temperatures. This would have a far stronger effect on global temperatures than greenhouse gas emissions.
Go figure.
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Earth always goes through a warming trend before an ice age hits.
We're well over due for an ice age.
It can take as little as two weeks for an ice age to begin (or a pleistocene epoch if I have it right)...
If 1+2=3, then...
-SW
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Two weeks?
Man I better put in for my vacation and get the skis out of the attic!
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It doesn't take two weeks to transform the globe into an ice age, it takes two weeks for the temperatures and climate to change to the onset of an ice age.
Agriculture is a fragile thing, wouldn't take much for the entire US agricultural system to be out of business.
-SW